mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

[Bill Sloman]

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 11:37:05 PM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 12:43:02 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 12:03:03 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 1:22:14 AM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 12:39:02 AM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 8:23:40 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 18:34:34 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 11:12:21 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

snip

Developing the antibody test is a really big deal. The main challenge is determination of an antigen that's specific to COVID-19 and not a different corona virus. Several research labs have found some, after extensive laboratory assays, but even then they are doing extensive testing on plasma samples of victims. And once they overcome that hurdle, there is the problem of manufacture of the antigens.

Once you have decided what protein the antibodies are latching onto, the business of synthesising that protein is passed over to a genetically modified bacterium that does nothing else. Molecular biologists have been doing this for some years now - it isn't rocket science any more.

<snip>

Here's a simple explanation even you can understand:
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/covid-19-coronavirus-pandemic-how-antibody-blood-tests-work

That just points out that we already have the antigen problem sorted. Boris Johnson wouldn't be able to go out and buy 3.5 million devices if we didn't.

> Keep posting your gibberish, it does have the benefit of enhancing the idiocy of anyone dumb enough to read newsgroup.

I couldn't hope to rival you.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 10:04:11 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

Here's a simple explanation even you can understand:
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/covid-19-coronavirus-pandemic-how-antibody-blood-tests-work

That just points out that we already have the antigen problem sorted. Boris Johnson wouldn't be able to go out and buy 3.5 million devices if we didn't.

British are not particularly famous for their mass production excellence.

Look at them run to a vacuum cleaner appliance manufacturer in Australia to bail them out of the ventilator shortage.

At least in the U.S., GM and Ford ran to established medical grade ventilator manufacturers to put on an even bigger show of capability they don't have.

 

[mpm]

Has anyone posted this YouTube link yet?
Simulating an epidemic
It was posted March 27th.

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs

 

[Rick C]

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 8:42:20 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:

Has anyone posted this YouTube link yet?
Simulating an epidemic
It was posted March 27th.

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs

That was a very interesting video. Lots of good takeaways.

--

Rick C.

++-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[legg]

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 11:29:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 11:14:03 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

RL

As of Mar26, the US detections are up to 210ppm (4x Wuhan).
Canada roughly half that - so running ~3 days behind, now
that the US is actually testing.

Iceland continues to test, inreasingly outside central care
community, is recording 2160ppm . . .
1.0% of tests reporting positive in 3% of total pop tested.
Fatalities at 6ppm from a 340ppm detection recorded 7 days
previously.

Italy hanging in at 1250ppm. (25x Wuhan)
Fatalities at 120ppm from a 680ppm detection recorded

correction should read 120ppm from 480ppm detection 7 days prev.

7 days previously. This probably reflects the health care
overload, compared to Iceland.

Depressing report from US charity field hospital in Cremona,
with 20 ventillators under tent cover - no recoveries so far,
(one fatality) after running for seven days.

RL

As of Mar28, US detections are up to 316ppm (6x Wuhan)
Canada still under half of that - so running ~4 days behind.
US detections running at 56ppm and rising.
Canadian detections running at 20ppm and rising.

Iceland record up to 2608ppm.
Fatalities still at 6ppm from a 1200ppm detection 7 days
previously. Note: One death in Iceland = 3ppm.
DETECTIONS HAVE FLATTENED out at a rate of 250ppm/day.

Italian detections at 2608ppm.
Fatalities at 150ppm from a 680ppm detection 7 days previously.
DETECTIONS HAVE FLATTENED at 100ppm/day.

RL

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 1:37:09 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 10:04:11 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

Here's a simple explanation even you can understand:
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/covid-19-coronavirus-pandemic-how-antibody-blood-tests-work

That just points out that we already have the antigen problem sorted. Boris Johnson wouldn't be able to go out and buy 3.5 million devices if we didn't.

British are not particularly famous for their mass production excellence.

The Germans do it better, and mainly because they invest more capital per worker. The British have been doing it longer than anybody else - the Chinese excepted, but the British had their industrial revolution long before China.

The British can certainly churn out stuff when they have to. It may not be the best stuff you can buy - my first car was made in England, but rest were French and Japanese - but it works.

> Look at them run to a vacuum cleaner appliance manufacturer in Australia to bail them out of the ventilator shortage.

Nobody has made any fuss about it here. Resmed - a local company who makes sleep apnoea aids - is moving it's production to ventilators and that has got some publicity here.

> At least in the U.S., GM and Ford ran to established medical grade ventilator manufacturers to put on an even bigger show of capability they don't have.

So what. Getting design drawing for something that can work is a great help in getting production going. You may not make the stuff the same way that lower volume producers would, or make exactly the same product, but Chinese copies can work fine.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

mpm <mpmillard@aol.com> wrote in news:7fd41100-98f9-4c91-8321-
3dd31b60d744@googlegroups.com:

Has anyone posted this YouTube link yet?
Simulating an epidemic
It was posted March 27th.

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs

You can officially classify me as a wandering dot!

 

DecadentLinuxUserNumeroUno@decadence.org wrote in news:r5p3e7$1s5c$1
@gioia.aioe.org:

mpm <mpmillard@aol.com> wrote in news:7fd41100-98f9-4c91-8321-
3dd31b60d744@googlegroups.com:

Has anyone posted this YouTube link yet?
Simulating an epidemic
It was posted March 27th.

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs




You can officially classify me as a wandering dot!

Note too that none of those have a Trump factor slider in the
simulations.

That would generate sub-sliders for "Idiots who listened to Trump",
and such.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 1:43:45 PM UTC+11, legg wrote:

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 11:29:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 11:14:03 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

RL

As of Mar26, the US detections are up to 210ppm (4x Wuhan).
Canada roughly half that - so running ~3 days behind, now
that the US is actually testing.

Iceland continues to test, inreasingly outside central care
community, is recording 2160ppm . . .
1.0% of tests reporting positive in 3% of total pop tested.
Fatalities at 6ppm from a 340ppm detection recorded 7 days
previously.

Italy hanging in at 1250ppm. (25x Wuhan)
Fatalities at 120ppm from a 680ppm detection recorded

correction should read 120ppm from 480ppm detection 7 days prev.

7 days previously. This probably reflects the health care
overload, compared to Iceland.

Depressing report from US charity field hospital in Cremona,
with 20 ventillators under tent cover - no recoveries so far,
(one fatality) after running for seven days.

As of Mar28, US detections are up to 316ppm (6x Wuhan)
Canada still under half of that - so running ~4 days behind.
US detections running at 56ppm and rising.
Canadian detections running at 20ppm and rising.

Iceland record up to 2608ppm.
Fatalities still at 6ppm from a 1200ppm detection 7 days
previously. Note: One death in Iceland = 3ppm.
DETECTIONS HAVE FLATTENED out at a rate of 250ppm/day.

But they need to start going down, the faster the better.

Italian detections at 2608ppm.
Fatalities at 150ppm from a 680ppm detection 7 days previously.
DETECTIONS HAVE FLATTENED at 100ppm/day.

So Italy is still in deep trouble. The number of new cases each day isn't going up, but it isn't going down either. Their hospitals are going stay overloaded until they work out how to prevent more infections.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Jasen Betts]

On 2020-03-25, John Larkin <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:11:09 -0700 (PDT), mpm <mpmillard@aol.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 11:06:03 AM UTC-4,
There are guns that shoot tee-shirts into the crowds at concerts.
And some that shoot tennis balls.

I know that the ones that use a cartridge (ammo) are indeed classified as firearms and you still need to pass a background check to own one.

Also: And I originally thought this to be a bit weird, but I'll throw it out there in case some folks aren't aware:

There are some farm tractors that you start using a shotgun shell.
You put the shell in, and smack it with a hammer. The force of the propellant is what turns over the engine. (Later, I learned the same was true for certain aircraft.) Neither one however is considered a "firearm".

Something else, but it will have to wait. (Can't remember the name of it.)

Nail guns are great for driving a nail into solid concrete. BAM!

or through steel plate or beams

> They use a slug-less .22 cal, umm, bullet?

A blank round. the bullet is the projectile. The one I handled could accept
blank rounds in two different calibres too because it had interchangable
chambers.


--
Jasen.

 

Jasen Betts <jasen@xnet.co.nz> wrote in
news:r5sdhb$cgj$1@gonzo.revmaps.no-ip.org:

On 2020-03-25, John Larkin
jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:11:09 -0700 (PDT), mpm <mpmillard@aol.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 11:06:03 AM UTC-4,
There are guns that shoot tee-shirts into the crowds at concerts.
And some that shoot tennis balls.

I know that the ones that use a cartridge (ammo) are indeed
classified as firearms and you still need to pass a background
check to own one.

Also: And I originally thought this to be a bit weird, but I'll
throw it out there in case some folks aren't aware:

There are some farm tractors that you start using a shotgun
shell. You put the shell in, and smack it with a hammer. The
force of the propellant is what turns over the engine. (Later, I
learned the same was true for certain aircraft.) Neither one
however is considered a "firearm".

Something else, but it will have to wait. (Can't remember the
name of it.)

Nail guns are great for driving a nail into solid concrete. BAM!

or through steel plate or beams

They use a slug-less .22 cal, umm, bullet?

A blank round. the bullet is the projectile.

A "blank round" by inference and definition, has NO projectile.

In a nail gun, the HAMMER is the projectile, and they are traverse
limited to remain within the tool.

The one I handled
could accept blank rounds in two different calibres too because it
had interchangable chambers.

That is because the original designs using .22 caliber blanks were
found to bee quite weak in the operation for which these tools are
chosen to start with. .25 caliber was adopted by Hilti and others for
its increased power.

Both have NO projectile.

Powder actuated nail guns are all single shot devices.

Pneumatic nail guns are the repeating variety.

Neither will launch a projectile without defeating the incorporated
safety mechanisms.

 

[legg]

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 22:48:54 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 11:29:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 11:14:03 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.
snip

As of Mar31, the US detections are up to 500ppm (10x Wuhan).
Fatalities at 10ppm from a 140ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. (7% FR)
US detections running at 65ppm/day and rising.

Canada detections at 200ppm - so running ~4 days behind.
Fatalities at 2.4ppm from a 44ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. (5.5% FR)
Canadian detections running at 31ppm and rising.

Iceland continues to test, inreasingly outside central care
community, is recording 3180ppm . . .
Fatalities still at 6ppm despite a 1720ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.3% FR )
Detection rates are 200ppm/day and falling.

Italian detections up to 1680ppm. (33x Wuhan)
Fatalities at 192ppm from a 1057ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. (18% FR)
This reflects the health care overload, compared to Iceland.
Detection rates are 70ppm/day and falling.

Information on actual testing concentration (all tests/total pop)
is no longer being reported.

RL

 

[legg]

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 13:17:43 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 22:48:54 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 11:29:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 11:14:03 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of Apr02, detections in the US are up to 655ppm (13x Wuhan)
Fatalities at 15.5ppm from a 315ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 4.5% FR)
US detections running at 82ppm/day and rising

Canada detections at 254ppm - so running ~7 days behind. (5x Wuhan)
Fatalities at 2.9ppm from a 106ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. (2.7% FR)
Canadian detections running at 28ppm and steady (7days).
Steady detection rate may reflect limits in testing capacity.

Iceland continues to test, inreasingly outside central care
community, is recording 3575ppm . (not Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities still at 6ppm despite a 2159ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.27% FR )
Detection rates are 250ppm/day and steady (14 days).
Steady detection rate may reflect limits in testing capacity.

Italian detections up to 1828ppm. (not Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 218ppm from a 1230ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. (18% FR)
This may reflect the health care overload, compared to Iceland.
Detection rates are 80ppm/day and steady. (15 days)
Steady detection rate may reflect limits in testing capacity.

The crude Wuhan comparison - an event affecting a single city
of 10 million people, in a country of 1.4 billion people -
is no longer apt when the wide-spread effects exceed a country's
capacity to respond, proportionally. Conversely, modest resources
can prevent conditions in a smaller scale city from degrading
within the quarantine of natural physical boundaries.

Iceland has roughly double the number of hospital beds per
capita, compared to China, Italy or US/Canada. (600 vs 300-400ppm).

Iceland and Italy both have roughly double the number of docters
per capita, compared to China, US or Canada. (400 vs 200-250ppm)

RL
and hospital beds, per capita

RL

 

[legg]

On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:47:48 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

<snip>

The crude Wuhan comparison - an event affecting a single city
of 10 million people, in a country of 1.4 billion people -
is no longer apt when the wide-spread effects exceed a country's
capacity to respond, proportionally. Conversely, modest resources
can prevent conditions in a smaller scale city from degrading
within the quarantine of natural physical boundaries.

Iceland has roughly double the number of hospital beds per
capita, compared to China, Italy or US/Canada. (600 vs 300-400ppm).

Iceland and Italy both have roughly double the number of docters
per capita, compared to China, US or Canada. (400 vs 200-250ppm)

I can't count. Should read
'6000 vs 3000-4000ppm' hospital beds
'4000 vs 2000-2500ppm' medical doctors

RL

 

[legg]

On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:47:48 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 13:17:43 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 22:48:54 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 11:29:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 11:14:03 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of Apr04, detections in the US are up to 840ppm (17x Wuhan)
Fatalities at 22ppm from a 316ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 7% FR)
US detections running at 98ppm/day and rising

Canada detections at 332ppm - so running ~7 days behind. (7x Wuhan)
Fatalities at 5ppm from a 143ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. (5% FR)
Canadian detections running at 33ppm and rising.

Iceland continues to test, increasingly outside the health care
community, is recording 4000ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities still at 12ppm despite a 2608ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.46% FR )
Detection rate is 140ppm/day and falling.

Italian detections up to 1981ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 242ppm from a 1430ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. (17% FR )
Detection rate is 76ppm and falling.

No regular record is being kept to tally the total number
of tests being performed.

RL

 

[Michael Terrell]

On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 9:58:06 AM UTC-4, legg wrote:

As of Apr04, detections in the US are up to 840ppm (17x Wuhan)
Fatalities at 22ppm from a 316ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 7% FR)
US detections running at 98ppm/day and rising

Canada detections at 332ppm - so running ~7 days behind. (7x Wuhan)
Fatalities at 5ppm from a 143ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. (5% FR)
Canadian detections running at 33ppm and rising.

Iceland continues to test, increasingly outside the health care
community, is recording 4000ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities still at 12ppm despite a 2608ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.46% FR )
Detection rate is 140ppm/day and falling.

Italian detections up to 1981ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 242ppm from a 1430ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. (17% FR )
Detection rate is 76ppm and falling.

No regular record is being kept to tally the total number
of tests being performed.

My county’s population was 359,977 last year. It has 38 reported cases, five in hospitals and zero deaths, so far.

 

[legg]

On Sat, 04 Apr 2020 10:03:20 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:47:48 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 13:17:43 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 22:48:54 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 11:29:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 11:14:03 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of Apr06:

US detections are at 1020ppm ( 20x Wuhan )
Fatalities at 29ppm from a 432ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 6.7% FR)
US detections running at 77ppm/day (one day drop from 100ppm)
US tests performed total 3825ppm (0.4%), at 355ppm/day

Canada detections at 410ppm (8x Wuhan) - so running ~7 days
behind the US.
Fatalities at 7.4ppm from a 166ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 4.5% FR)
Canadian detections running at 43ppm and rising.
Canadian tests performed total 6833ppm (0.7%), at 470ppm/day.

Iceland detections at 4354ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 12ppm from a 2990ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.40% FR )
Detection rate is 202ppm/day and steady.
Iceland tests performed total 64665ppm (6.5%), at 3685ppm/day.

Italian detections at 2133ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 263ppm from a 1616ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 16% FR )
Detection rate is 71ppm and falling.
Italian tests performed total 10482ppm (1.0%), at 653ppm/day.

Data on total tests performed are being gathered by various methods.
A single case of Covid-19 infection can generate up to
3 tests during its course, through to recovery.

RL

 

[legg]

On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 09:03:57 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 04 Apr 2020 10:03:20 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:47:48 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 13:17:43 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 22:48:54 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 11:29:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 11:14:03 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of Apr08:

US detections are at 1204ppm (no longer Wuhan comparable >20x)
Fatalities at 39ppm from a 572ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 6.8% FR)
US detections running at 92ppm/day (possibly steadying)
US tests performed total 5780ppm (0.6%), at 470ppm/day

Canada detections at 474ppm (9x Wuhan) - so running ~8 days
behind the US.
Fatalities at 10ppm from a 226ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 4.5% FR)
Canadian detections running at 33ppm/day (possibly steadying).
Canadian tests performed total 8960ppm (0.9%), at 600ppm/day.

Iceland detections at 4647ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 18ppm from a 3326ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.50% FR )
Detection rate is 70ppm/day and falling.
Iceland tests performed total 81230ppm (8.1%), at 3685ppm/day.

Italian detections at 2242ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 283ppm from a 1750ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 16% FR )
Detection rate is 50ppm and falling.
Italian tests performed total 11690ppm (1.2%), at 510ppm/day.

US and Canada do not seem to test or to report on one day
of the week ~ weekend.

The single MD of a long-term care seniors home in Bobcaygeon,
Ontario, relates that his only tools against Covid19 infection
at the facility were inhalers and morphine. Isolation impractical.

Canada reports no backlog in testing.

RL

 

[Flyguy]

On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 7:38:10 AM UTC-7, legg wrote:

On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 09:03:57 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 04 Apr 2020 10:03:20 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:47:48 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 13:17:43 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 22:48:54 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 11:29:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 11:14:03 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of Apr08:

US detections are at 1204ppm (no longer Wuhan comparable >20x)
Fatalities at 39ppm from a 572ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 6.8% FR)
US detections running at 92ppm/day (possibly steadying)
US tests performed total 5780ppm (0.6%), at 470ppm/day

Canada detections at 474ppm (9x Wuhan) - so running ~8 days
behind the US.
Fatalities at 10ppm from a 226ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 4.5% FR)
Canadian detections running at 33ppm/day (possibly steadying).
Canadian tests performed total 8960ppm (0.9%), at 600ppm/day.

Iceland detections at 4647ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 18ppm from a 3326ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.50% FR )
Detection rate is 70ppm/day and falling.
Iceland tests performed total 81230ppm (8.1%), at 3685ppm/day.

Italian detections at 2242ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 283ppm from a 1750ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 16% FR )
Detection rate is 50ppm and falling.
Italian tests performed total 11690ppm (1.2%), at 510ppm/day.

US and Canada do not seem to test or to report on one day
of the week ~ weekend.

The single MD of a long-term care seniors home in Bobcaygeon,
Ontario, relates that his only tools against Covid19 infection
at the facility were inhalers and morphine. Isolation impractical.

Canada reports no backlog in testing.

RL

You're joking, right? Canada is testing less than 10 per thousand, that's one in a hundred. If there is no backlog it is because they are turning people away that want the test.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

Furthermore, any data from China is totally unreliable - they reported ZERO CV19 deaths today. Yeah, right.

 

[Ricky C]

On Thursday, April 9, 2020 at 12:41:43 AM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:

On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 7:38:10 AM UTC-7, legg wrote:
On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 09:03:57 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 04 Apr 2020 10:03:20 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:47:48 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 13:17:43 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 22:48:54 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 11:29:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 11:14:03 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of Apr08:

US detections are at 1204ppm (no longer Wuhan comparable >20x)
Fatalities at 39ppm from a 572ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 6.8% FR)
US detections running at 92ppm/day (possibly steadying)
US tests performed total 5780ppm (0.6%), at 470ppm/day

Canada detections at 474ppm (9x Wuhan) - so running ~8 days
behind the US.
Fatalities at 10ppm from a 226ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 4.5% FR)
Canadian detections running at 33ppm/day (possibly steadying).
Canadian tests performed total 8960ppm (0.9%), at 600ppm/day.

Iceland detections at 4647ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 18ppm from a 3326ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.50% FR )
Detection rate is 70ppm/day and falling.
Iceland tests performed total 81230ppm (8.1%), at 3685ppm/day.

Italian detections at 2242ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 283ppm from a 1750ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 16% FR )
Detection rate is 50ppm and falling.
Italian tests performed total 11690ppm (1.2%), at 510ppm/day.

US and Canada do not seem to test or to report on one day
of the week ~ weekend.

The single MD of a long-term care seniors home in Bobcaygeon,
Ontario, relates that his only tools against Covid19 infection
at the facility were inhalers and morphine. Isolation impractical.

Canada reports no backlog in testing.

RL

You're joking, right? Canada is testing less than 10 per thousand, that's one in a hundred. If there is no backlog it is because they are turning people away that want the test.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

Furthermore, any data from China is totally unreliable - they reported ZERO CV19 deaths today. Yeah, right.

You keep talking about China reporting zero deaths as if that is impossible.. The deaths reported have been single digit for weeks now. Why is zero so inconsistent when they have fewer infections in the whole country than we have in Idaho?

They have worked hard to reduce their infection counts. We should hope to achieve that ourselves and should be over there learning all the details of how they did it. South Korea as well. Science is about exchanging information. Our government seems to have trouble with that idea.

--

Rick C.

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