mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, April 9, 2020 at 2:49:53 PM UTC+10, Ricky C wrote:

On Thursday, April 9, 2020 at 12:41:43 AM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:
On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 7:38:10 AM UTC-7, legg wrote:
On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 09:03:57 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 04 Apr 2020 10:03:20 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:47:48 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 13:17:43 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 22:48:54 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 11:29:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 11:14:03 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of Apr08:

US detections are at 1204ppm (no longer Wuhan comparable >20x)
Fatalities at 39ppm from a 572ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 6.8% FR)
US detections running at 92ppm/day (possibly steadying)
US tests performed total 5780ppm (0.6%), at 470ppm/day

Canada detections at 474ppm (9x Wuhan) - so running ~8 days
behind the US.
Fatalities at 10ppm from a 226ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 4.5% FR)
Canadian detections running at 33ppm/day (possibly steadying).
Canadian tests performed total 8960ppm (0.9%), at 600ppm/day.

Iceland detections at 4647ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 18ppm from a 3326ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.50% FR )
Detection rate is 70ppm/day and falling.
Iceland tests performed total 81230ppm (8.1%), at 3685ppm/day.

Italian detections at 2242ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 283ppm from a 1750ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 16% FR )
Detection rate is 50ppm and falling.
Italian tests performed total 11690ppm (1.2%), at 510ppm/day.

US and Canada do not seem to test or to report on one day
of the week ~ weekend.

The single MD of a long-term care seniors home in Bobcaygeon,
Ontario, relates that his only tools against Covid19 infection
at the facility were inhalers and morphine. Isolation impractical.

Canada reports no backlog in testing.

RL

You're joking, right? Canada is testing less than 10 per thousand, that's one in a hundred. If there is no backlog it is because they are turning people away that want the test.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

Furthermore, any data from China is totally unreliable - they reported ZERO CV19 deaths today. Yeah, right.

You keep talking about China reporting zero deaths as if that is impossible. The deaths reported have been single digit for weeks now. Why is zero so inconsistent when they have fewer infections in the whole country than we have in Idaho?

They have worked hard to reduce their infection counts. We should hope to achieve that ourselves and should be over there learning all the details of how they did it. South Korea as well. Science is about exchanging information. Our government seems to have trouble with that idea.

The US government's approach to information seems to be that they want to inform everybody that they are performing really well. Their performance is dire, if you pay any attention to the rapidly rising numbers of sick and dead Americans, so they don't.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, April 9, 2020 at 2:41:43 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:

On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 7:38:10 AM UTC-7, legg wrote:
On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 09:03:57 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 04 Apr 2020 10:03:20 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:47:48 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 13:17:43 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 22:48:54 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 11:29:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 11:14:03 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of Apr08:

US detections are at 1204ppm (no longer Wuhan comparable >20x)
Fatalities at 39ppm from a 572ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 6.8% FR)
US detections running at 92ppm/day (possibly steadying)
US tests performed total 5780ppm (0.6%), at 470ppm/day

Canada detections at 474ppm (9x Wuhan) - so running ~8 days
behind the US.
Fatalities at 10ppm from a 226ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 4.5% FR)
Canadian detections running at 33ppm/day (possibly steadying).
Canadian tests performed total 8960ppm (0.9%), at 600ppm/day.

Iceland detections at 4647ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 18ppm from a 3326ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.50% FR )
Detection rate is 70ppm/day and falling.
Iceland tests performed total 81230ppm (8.1%), at 3685ppm/day.

Italian detections at 2242ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 283ppm from a 1750ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 16% FR )
Detection rate is 50ppm and falling.
Italian tests performed total 11690ppm (1.2%), at 510ppm/day.

US and Canada do not seem to test or to report on one day
of the week ~ weekend.

The single MD of a long-term care seniors home in Bobcaygeon,
Ontario, relates that his only tools against Covid19 infection
at the facility were inhalers and morphine. Isolation impractical.

Canada reports no backlog in testing.

You're joking, right? Canada is testing less than 10 per thousand, that's one in a hundred. If there is no backlog it is because they are turning people away that want the test.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

Furthermore, any data from China is totally unreliable - they reported ZERO CV19 deaths today. Yeah, right.

The fact that Flyguy doesn't want to believe it doesn't make it unreliable.

Flyguy's judgement - such as it is - is what's unreliable here. It is predictable, but that's rather different.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[legg]

On Wed, 8 Apr 2020 21:41:37 -0700 (PDT), Flyguy
<soar2morrow@yahoo.com> wrote:

On Wednesday, April 8, 2020 at 7:38:10 AM UTC-7, legg wrote:
On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 09:03:57 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 04 Apr 2020 10:03:20 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:47:48 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 13:17:43 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 22:48:54 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 11:29:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 11:14:03 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of Apr08:

US detections are at 1204ppm (no longer Wuhan comparable >20x)
Fatalities at 39ppm from a 572ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 6.8% FR)
US detections running at 92ppm/day (possibly steadying)
US tests performed total 5780ppm (0.6%), at 470ppm/day

Canada detections at 474ppm (9x Wuhan) - so running ~8 days
behind the US.
Fatalities at 10ppm from a 226ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 4.5% FR)
Canadian detections running at 33ppm/day (possibly steadying).
Canadian tests performed total 8960ppm (0.9%), at 600ppm/day.

Iceland detections at 4647ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 18ppm from a 3326ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.50% FR )
Detection rate is 70ppm/day and falling.
Iceland tests performed total 81230ppm (8.1%), at 3685ppm/day.

Italian detections at 2242ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 283ppm from a 1750ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 16% FR )
Detection rate is 50ppm and falling.
Italian tests performed total 11690ppm (1.2%), at 510ppm/day.

US and Canada do not seem to test or to report on one day
of the week ~ weekend.

The single MD of a long-term care seniors home in Bobcaygeon,
Ontario, relates that his only tools against Covid19 infection
at the facility were inhalers and morphine. Isolation impractical.

Canada reports no backlog in testing.

RL

You're joking, right? Canada is testing less than 10 per thousand, that's one in a hundred. If there is no backlog it is because they are turning people away that want the test.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

Furthermore, any data from China is totally unreliable - they reported ZERO CV19 deaths today. Yeah, right.

The 'no backlog' is a travesty, while nursing homes are
being ravaged, and being refused tests of possibly
asymptomatic patients and staff.

Ontario alone has a 13,000/day test capacity, but tests
typically at 2,500/day.

Even if they two-track test priorities - all testing info
collected (including non-positives) is a valuable tool
in resource management.

As reported above, Canadian testing typically 600ppm/day vs
US 470ppm/day. Canada should be able to double or triple their
testing rates if Ontario gets it's ass in gear. Who cares
what postal code the test comes from (but please don't throw
that info away or the test has litle practical use.)

RL

 

[legg]

On Wed, 08 Apr 2020 10:43:23 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 09:03:57 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 04 Apr 2020 10:03:20 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:47:48 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 13:17:43 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 22:48:54 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 11:29:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 11:14:03 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of Apr10:

US detections are at 1408ppm (no longer Wuhan comparable >20x)
Fatalities at 50.4ppm from a 742ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 6.8% FR)
US detections running at 102ppm/day (possibly steadying around 90ppm)
US tests performed total 6630ppm (0.6%), at 420ppm/day

Canada detections at 550ppm (11x Wuhan) - so running ~8 days
behind the US.
Fatalities at 13.5ppm from a 299ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 4.5% FR)
Canadian detections at 39ppm/day (possibly steadying around 35ppm).
Canadian tests performed total 9550ppm (0.9%), at 340ppm/day.
Teating seems to have stalled, as test criteria remains rigid.

Iceland detections at 4829ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 18ppm from a 3865ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.50% FR )
Detection rate is 94ppm/day and falling.
Iceland tests performed total 95000ppm (9.5%), at 3685ppm/day.

Italian detections at 2375ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 302ppm from a 1906ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 16% FR )
Detection rate is 70ppm and falling.
Italian tests performed total 14430ppm (1.4%), at 870ppm/day.

Keep in mind that the Wuhan and region infection generated a
Chinese detection rate of approximately 50ppm for the entire
episode.

RL

 

[legg]

On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 10:18:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Wed, 08 Apr 2020 10:43:23 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 09:03:57 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 04 Apr 2020 10:03:20 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:47:48 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 13:17:43 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 22:48:54 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 11:29:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 11:14:03 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of Apr13:

US detections are at 1684ppm (no longer Wuhan comparable >20x)
Fatalities at 62.3ppm from a 1020ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 6.1% FR)
US detections running at 83ppm/day (possibly steadying around 90ppm)
US tests performed total 8040ppm (0.8%), at 410ppm/day

Canada detections at 645ppm (13x Wuhan) - so running ~8 days
behind the US.
Fatalities at 17.3ppm from a 410ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 4.2% FR)
Canadian detections at 28ppm/day (possibly steadying around 35ppm).
Canadian tests performed total 10760ppm (1.1%), at 400ppm/day.
Teating continues to be stalled, as test criteria remains rigid.

Iceland detections at 4884ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 23.4ppm from a 4354ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.53% FR )
Detection rate is 35ppm/day and falling.
Iceland tests performed total 102710ppm (10.2%), at 1800ppm/day.
Iceland's testing is falling back as contact cases reduce.

Italian detections at 2586ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 322ppm from a 2132ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 15% FR )
Detection rate is 68ppm and falling.
Italian tests performed total 16290ppm (1.6%), at 9600ppm/day.

Keep in mind that the Wuhan and region infection generated a
Chinese detection rate of approximately 50ppm for the entire
episode.

RL

 

[legg]

On Mon, 13 Apr 2020 09:23:50 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 10:18:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Wed, 08 Apr 2020 10:43:23 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 09:03:57 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 04 Apr 2020 10:03:20 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:47:48 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 13:17:43 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 22:48:54 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 11:29:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 11:14:03 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of Apr15:

US detections are at 1841ppm (no longer Wuhan comparable >20x)
Fatalities at 71.5ppm from a 1204ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 5.9% FR)
US detections running at 81ppm/day (possibly steadying around 90ppm)
US tests performed total 8900ppm (0.9%), at 390ppm/day

Canada detections at 717ppm (15x Wuhan) - so running ~12 days
behind the US.
Fatalities at 20.7ppm from a 474ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 4.4% FR)
Canadian detections at 37ppm/day (possibly steadying around 35ppm).
Canadian tests performed total 11600ppm (1.2%), wildly varying
around 400ppm/day.
Testing continues to be stalled, as test criteria remains rigid.

Iceland detections at 5040ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 23.4ppm from a 4647ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.5% FR )
Detection rate is 26ppm/day and falling.
Iceland tests performed total 105900ppm (10.6%), at 1800ppm/day.
Iceland's testing is falling as contact cases reduce.

Italian detections at 2687ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 339ppm from a 2244ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 15% FR )
Detection rate is 49.5ppm and falling.
Italian tests performed total 18200ppm (1.8%), at 790ppm/day.

With steady or falling detection rates established in these four
countries, the demonstrated differences in mitigation strategy
and timing have become evident.

None are comparable to the original Chinese experience - though China
had NO warning, detections never exceeded 55ppm, fatalities never
more than 2.3ppm. Other Asian countries, fore-warned, managed much
better.

It remains to be seen how poorer-equipped countries manage.
Shooting the messenger obviously doesn't work.

RL
>RL

 

[legg]

On Wed, 15 Apr 2020 10:13:11 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Mon, 13 Apr 2020 09:23:50 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 10:18:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Wed, 08 Apr 2020 10:43:23 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 09:03:57 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 04 Apr 2020 10:03:20 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:47:48 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 13:17:43 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 22:48:54 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 11:29:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 11:14:03 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of Apr18:

US detections are at 2121ppm (no longer Wuhan comparable >20x)
Fatalities at 112ppm from a 1515ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 7.5% FR)
US detections running at 93ppm/day (possibly steadying around 90ppm)
US tests performed total 10260ppm (1%), at 480ppm/day.
19% of tests are positive

Canada detections at 844ppm (17x Wuhan) - so running ~14 days
behind the US.
Fatalities at 35ppm from a 586ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 6% FR)
Canadian detections at 47ppm/day (possibly steadying around 40ppm).
Canadian tests performed total 13380ppm (1.3%), wildly varying
around 400ppm/day (660ppm today).
6% tests are positive, indicating a wider screening is in effect.

Iceland detections at 5139ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 23ppm from a 4908ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.45% FR )
Detection rate is 44ppm/day and possibly steadying around 40ppm..
Iceland tests performed total 115070ppm (11.5%), at 3880ppm/day.
4.3% test are positive.

Italian detections at 2852ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 376ppm from a 2440ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 15% FR )
Detection rate is 58ppm and possibly steadying around 50ppm.
Italian tests performed total 21040ppm (2.1%), at 1110ppm/day.
13% of tests are positive.

Recently revised fatality figures from China do not affect the
the per-capita impact of their detection data. Still <55ppm
total detections.

RL

 

[legg]

On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 12:01:42 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Wed, 15 Apr 2020 10:13:11 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Mon, 13 Apr 2020 09:23:50 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 10:18:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Wed, 08 Apr 2020 10:43:23 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 09:03:57 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 04 Apr 2020 10:03:20 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:47:48 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 13:17:43 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 28 Mar 2020 22:48:54 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 11:29:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 11:14:03 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of Apr20:

US detections are at 2295ppm (no longer Wuhan comparable >20x)
Fatalities at 123ppm from a 1684ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 7.3% FR)
US detections running at 74ppm/day (possibly steadying around 90ppm)
US tests performed total 11160ppm (1%), at 460ppm/day.
19% of tests are positive

Canada detections at 921ppm (18x Wuhan) - so running ~15 days
behind the US.
Fatalities at 42ppm from a 645ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 6.5% FR)
Canadian detections at 38ppm/day (possibly steadying around 40ppm).
Canadian tests performed total 13730ppm (1.4%), at 480ppm/day .
6% of tests are positive, indicating a wider screening is in effect.

Iceland detections at 5190ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 26ppm from a 4984ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.6% FR )
Detection rate is 32ppm/day and possibly falling.
Iceland tests performed total 124770ppm (12.5%), at 4430ppm/day.
4% of tests are positive.

Italian detections at 2960ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 391ppm from a 2586ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 15% FR )
Detection rate is 32ppm/day and possibly falling.
Italian tests performed total 22030ppm (2.2%), at 1060ppm/day.
13% of tests are positive.

RL

 

[legg]

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 14:49:36 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 12:01:42 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of Apr22:

US detections are at 2492ppm (no longer Wuhan comparable >20x)
Fatalities at 136ppm from a 1841ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 7.4% FR)
US detections running at 91ppm/day (possibly steadying around 90ppm)
US tests performed total 12080ppm (1.2%), at 450ppm/day.
18% of tests are positive

Canada detections at 1018ppm (20x Wuhan) - so running ~16 days
behind the US.
Fatalities at 49ppm from a 717ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 6.8% FR)
Canadian detections at 45ppm/day (possibly steadying around 40ppm).
Canadian tests performed total 15050ppm (1.5%), at 440ppm/day .
6.5% of tests are positive.

Italian detections at 3042ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 408ppm from a 2687ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 15% FR )
Detection rate is 44ppm/day and possibly falling.
Italian tests performed total 24520ppm (2.4%), at 810ppm/day.
12.5% of tests are positive.

Iceland detections at 5210ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 29ppm from a 5040ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.6% FR )
Detection rate is 18ppm/day and falling.
Iceland tests performed total 127580ppm (12.7%), at 2660ppm/day.
4% of tests are positive.

Australian detections at 261ppm (5x Wuhan)
Fatalities at 2.9ppm from a 252ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. (1.2% FR)
Detection rate is 0.8ppm/day and falling
Australian tests performed total 17320ppm (1.7%), at 440ppm/day.
1.5% of tests are positive.

RL

 

[legg]

On Wed, 22 Apr 2020 15:52:46 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 14:49:36 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 12:01:42 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of Apr24:

US detections are at 2626ppm (no longer Wuhan comparable >20x)
Fatalities at 151ppm from a 2028ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 7.4% FR)
US detections running at 80ppm/day (possibly steadying around 90ppm)
US tests performed total 14060ppm (1.4%), at 660ppm/day.
18% of tests are positive

Canada detections at 1115ppm (20x Wuhan) - so running ~17 days
behind the US.
Fatalities at 57ppm from a 797ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 7.2% FR)
Canadian detections at 51ppm/day (possibly steadying around 40ppm).
Canadian tests performed total 17110ppm (1.7%), at 690ppm/day .
6.5% of tests are positive.

Italian detections at 3142ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 422ppm from a 2794ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 15% FR )
Detection rate is 45ppm/day and possibly falling.
Italian tests performed total 27770ppm (2.7%), at 1080ppm/day.
11.6% of tests are positive.

Iceland detections at 5242ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 29ppm from a 5096ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.6% FR )
Detection rate is 12ppm/day and falling.
Iceland tests performed total 131820ppm (13.2%), at 1041ppm/day.
4% of tests are positive.

Australian detections at 261ppm (5x Wuhan)
Fatalities at 2.9ppm from a 255ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. (1.2% FR)
Detection rate is 0.5ppm/day and falling
Australian tests performed total 18990ppm (1.9%), at 560ppm/day.
1.4% of tests are positive.

RL

 

[legg]

On Sat, 25 Apr 2020 12:15:12 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Wed, 22 Apr 2020 15:52:46 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 14:49:36 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 12:01:42 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of Apr27:

US detections are at 2918ppm (no longer Wuhan comparable >50x)
Fatalities at 166ppm from a 2295ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 7.3% FR)
US detections running at 81ppm/day (possibly steadying around 90ppm)
US tests performed total 16420ppm (1.6%), at 330ppm/day.
17% of tests are positive

Canada detections at 1242ppm (24x Wuhan) - so running ~18 days
behind the US.
Fatalities at 68ppm from an 883ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 7.7% FR)
Canadian detections at 40ppm/day (possibly steadying around 40ppm).
Canadian tests performed total 18390ppm (1.8%), at 570ppm/day .
6.6% of tests are positive.

Italian detections at 3296ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable >60x)
Fatalities at 441ppm from a 2960ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 15% FR )
Detection rate is 38ppm/day and falling.
Italian tests performed total 29720ppm (3%), at 1000ppm/day.
11% of tests are positive.

Iceland detections at 5251ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 29.3ppm from a 5190ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.6% FR )
Detection rate is 5.9ppm/day and falling.
Iceland tests performed total 135000ppm (13.5%), at 1060ppm/day.
3.8% of tests are positive.

Australian detections at 263ppm (5x Wuhan)
Fatalities at 3.3ppm from a 259ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. (1.3% FR)
Detection rate is 0.4ppm/day and falling
Australian tests performed total 19940ppm (2%), at 450ppm/day.
1.3% of tests are positive.

RL

 

[legg]

On Mon, 27 Apr 2020 23:51:37 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 25 Apr 2020 12:15:12 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Wed, 22 Apr 2020 15:52:46 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 14:49:36 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 12:01:42 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of Apr29:

US detections are at 3055ppm (no longer Wuhan comparable >50x)
Fatalities at 176ppm from a 2492ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 7.1% FR)
US detections running at 73ppm/day (possibly falling)
US tests performed total 17510ppm (1.8%), at 600ppm/day.
17% of tests are positive

Canada detections at 1325ppm (24x Wuhan) - so running ~21 days
behind the US.
Fatalities at 76ppm from a 1017ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 7.5% FR)
Canadian detections at 40ppm/day (possibly steadying around 40ppm).
Canadian tests performed total 19630ppm (2.0%), at 590ppm/day .
6.7% of tests are positive.

Italian detections at 3332ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable >60x)
Fatalities at 458ppm from a 3042ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 15% FR )
Detection rate is 35ppm/day and falling.
Italian tests performed total 30550ppm (3.1%), at 840ppm/day.
11% of tests are positive.

Iceland detections at 5260ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 29.3ppm from a 5210ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.6% FR )
Detection rate is 5.9ppm/day and steady.
Iceland tests performed total 139290ppm (14%), at 1190ppm/day.
3.8% of tests are positive.

Australian detections at 264ppm (5x Wuhan)
Fatalities at 3.5ppm from a 261ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. (1.3% FR)
Detection rate is 0.5ppm/day and steady
Australian tests performed total 20810ppm (2.1%), at 500ppm/day.
1.3% of tests are positive.

RL

 

[legg]

On Thu, 30 Apr 2020 11:55:31 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Mon, 27 Apr 2020 23:51:37 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 25 Apr 2020 12:15:12 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Wed, 22 Apr 2020 15:52:46 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 14:49:36 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 12:01:42 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of May01:

US detections are at 3232ppm (no longer Wuhan comparable >60x)
Fatalities at 184ppm from a 2626ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 7% FR)
US detections running at 90ppm/day (possibly steady around 80ppm)
US tests performed total 18200ppm (1.8%), at 700ppm/day.
18% of tests are positive

Canada detections at 1411ppm (28x Wuhan) - so running ~21 days
behind the US.
Fatalities at 79ppm from a 1115ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 7.1% FR)
Canadian detections at 44ppm/day (possibly steadying around 40ppm).
Canadian tests performed total 20890ppm (2.1%), at 740ppm/day .
6.8% of tests are positive.

Italian detections at 3398ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable >60x)
Fatalities at 458ppm from a 3142ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 14.6% FR )
Detection rate is 31ppm/day and falling.
Italian tests performed total 32730ppm (3.3%), at 1130ppm/day.
10.4% of tests are positive.

Iceland detections at 5266ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 29ppm from a 5242ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.55% FR )
Detection rate is 5.9ppm/day and steady.
Iceland tests performed total 141750ppm (14%), at 2460ppm/day.
3.7% of tests are positive.

Australian detections at 265ppm (5x Wuhan)
Fatalities at 3.5ppm from a 261ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. (1.3% FR)
Detection rate is 0.6ppm/day and steady
Australian tests performed total 22100ppm (2.2%), at 750ppm/day.
1.3% of tests are positive.

RL

 

[legg]

On Wed, 22 Apr 2020 15:52:46 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 14:49:36 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 12:01:42 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of May04:

US detections are at 3499ppm (no longer Wuhan comparable >60x)
Fatalities at 204ppm from a 2918ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 6.8% FR)
US detections running at 75ppm/day (possibly steadying around 90ppm)
US tests performed total 20590ppm (2%), at 800ppm/day.
17% of tests are positive

Canada detections at 1576ppm (30x Wuhan) - so running ~23 days
behind the US.
Fatalities at 97.6ppm from a 1242ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 7.9% FR)
Canadian detections at 73ppm/day (rising from previous steady 40ppm).
Canadian tests performed total 22840ppm (2.3%), at 800ppm/day .
7% of tests are positive.

Italian detections at 3485ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 478ppm from a 3269ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 14.6% FR )
Detection rate is 23ppm/day and falling.
Italian tests performed total 34880ppm (3.5%), at 1090ppm/day.
10% of tests are positive.

Iceland detections at 5251ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 29ppm from a 5251ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.6% FR )
Detection rate is 3ppm/day and falling.
Iceland tests performed total 147590ppm (14.7%), at 1950ppm/day.
3.6% of tests are positive.

Australian detections at 267ppm (5x Wuhan)
Fatalities at 3.7ppm from a 263ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. (1.4% FR)
Detection rate is 0.7ppm/day and falling
Australian tests performed total 23090ppm (2.3%), at 760ppm/day.
1.1% of tests are positive.

RL

 

[legg]

On Wed, 22 Apr 2020 15:52:46 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 14:49:36 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 12:01:42 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

As of May06:

US detections are at 3639ppm (exceeding those of Italy)
Fatalities at 255ppm from a 3059ppm detection recorded
7 days previously ( 8.3% FR)
US detections running at 72ppm/day (possibly steadying around 90ppm)
US tests performed total 22790ppm (2.2%), at 780ppm/day.
15.6% of tests are positive.

Canada detections at 1644ppm (30x Wuhan) - so running ~23 days
behind the US.
Fatalities at 107ppm from a 1367ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 6.6% FR)
Canadian detections at 35ppm/day (possibly steadying around 40ppm).
Canadian tests performed total 24970ppm (2.5%), at 50ppm/day .
6.6% of tests are positive. Testing seems stalled.

Italy detections at 3523ppm. (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 485ppm from a 3333ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 14.6% FR )
Detection rate is 18ppm/day and falling.
Italian tests performed total 38220ppm (3.8%), at 1060ppm/day.
9.3% of tests are positive.

Iceland detections at 5272ppm . (no longer Wuhan comparable)
Fatalities at 29ppm from a 5260ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. ( 0.6% FR )
Detection rate is 0ppm/day. Congratulations.
Iceland tests performed total 151270ppm (15%), at 930ppm/day.
3.5% of tests are positive.

Australian detections at 269ppm (5x Wuhan)
Fatalities at 2.8ppm from a 264ppm detection recorded
7 days previously. (1.4% FR)
Detection rate is 0.9ppm/day and falling
Australian tests performed total 26070ppm (1.7%), at 940ppm/day.
1% of tests are positive.

North America seems determined to ensure that everyone eventually
gets this virus - just so long as the personnel, PPE and hospital
beds hold out. Are they realy prepared to kill 1 out of every 20
senior citizens?

Seniors' Homes in Ontario and Quebec have been turned into
slaughter houses.

RL