mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

[mpm]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 9:42:18 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 12:06:52 PM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 17:46:29 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 4:43:12 PM UTC-4, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

snip

But only 20% of the Diamond Princess' sardines got WuFlu, inconsistent
with simple exponential growth. And only 3% of Wuhan's population were
ultimately infected.

The Diamond Princess passengers were supposed to isolated from one another on the ship. The crew managing the isolation were not well-trained in doing that, but it's not evidence about what happens in real life.

Wuhan got put into lockdown after enough people had gotten sick to get the attention of the authorities. That's what limited the infection rate to 3%.

Probably a minority of people can ever catch the virus. 20% is likely
in the ballpark.

There's absolutely no evidence to support this fatuous suggestion.

Also, the plain exponential model assumes people won't change their
behaviors.

Of course it does. It wouldn't be a plain exponential model otherwise.

Italy does demonstrate that it can be remarkably difficult to get people to chance their behaviour. Australia has just been put into drastic lock-down because large swathes of the population had decided that they didn't need to practice social distancing

The exponential growth can only continue early on in an infection. All
flu starts exponentially. Exponential growth always stops being
exponential. Even in simulation you run out of floating point range.

Actually, you run out of people to infect first.

The problem is that the usual limiting mechanism - herd immunity - requires lots of people to have had the disease, recovered from it, and become immune.

Covid-19 isn't as infectious as the measles, and about 60% herd immunity would reduce R0 below one.

But Covid-19 kills an appreciable proportion of those it infects - roughly ten times as many as seasonal flu - so getting that level of herd immunity kills a lot of people

Like the flu, it kills more elderly people than young people, but it kills a lot more young people than the flu does.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Hot damn!
Bill finally says something I can understand.

Stay safe!

 

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:13:57 +1100, Clifford Heath
<no.spam@please.net> wrote:

On 23/3/20 9:38 am, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
There're only a few things that can kill off the entire human race: a massive high speed asteroid strike, a cataclysmic mantle eruption, and global warming, to name a few. The bio stuff doesn't come close.

Death of the human race (loss of the genome) is not likely, not from
this, and not from climate change.

It's the loss of human civilisation that's at risk here.

Some argue that the USA never had it anyway, of course .
"straight from barbarism to decadence" or something like that, I recall.

CH

Speak for yourself. The chicken and dumplings and cheesecake were a
peak of civilization.

USians design the best electronics, too.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 1:37:51 PM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:13:57 +1100, Clifford Heath
no.spam@please.net> wrote:

On 23/3/20 9:38 am, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

<snip>

> USians design the best electronics, too.

John Larkin would think that - he's a USian, and he thinks he designs electronics.

People with a better grasp of reality would note that Allan Dower Blumlein did rather well, despite the fact that he wasn't American.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[whit3rd]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 6:06:52 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Probably a minority of people can ever catch the virus. 20% is likely
in the ballpark.

There's no basis for assigning that probability. There have been no
other variants of COVID=19 in past circulation, so NO ONE has immunity.
Mild cases that pass, extreme cases that require hospitalization (or a morgue),
and asymptomatic carriers are all known. Persons who are immune
a priori, are NOT known. You've just made up a lie that
calls most of the human race immune.

Ever hear of 'ghost shirts'?? That's a variant that only got hundred or so people killed.

<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_shirt>

Don't underestimate the enemy, you only get one chance in a lifetime that way.

 

[Martin Brown]

On 23/03/2020 11:37, mpm wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:17:43 AM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

Just because my sister-in-law claims it to be Chlorine doesn't mean that it actually is. (Although I suspect it is.)

What else would governments use to spray down streets that's cheap and effective?
She might mean chlorine bleach? IDK, haven't spoken to her yet.

My tame biologist tells me it is most probably Virkon and that it mostly
street theatre the way it is being used. Chlorine would damage fabrics.

http://virkon.us/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2017/11/VirkonTM-S-USA.pdf

But, Serbia is more locked-down than the US.
Of course, it's a much smaller country, and they're quite literally used to war.

UK is now in lock down after 2030 last night. I doubt if it will make
any difference now. The population of London took it upon themselves to
spread the virus far and wide over the recent sunny spring weekend.

Remote Snowdonia had its busiest tourist day *EVER* and many National
Trust places were overwhelmed with visitors all ignoring the advice not
to join large crowds. Go figure what that means for virus transmission
rates - we will see the spike in one incubation period from now.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[Martin Brown]

On 24/03/2020 00:46, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 4:43:12 PM UTC-4,
bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56



RL

That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly
immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of
susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that
each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within
just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of
replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much
about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the
fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is
relatively short, 99% of these people don't require
hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated.
His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist
looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his
stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the
chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.

The exponential model ignores people's limited social networks, and
assumes they will continue to infect new people at the same rate, ad
infinitum.

But only 20% of the Diamond Princess' sardines got WuFlu,
inconsistent with simple exponential growth. And only 3% of Wuhan's
population were ultimately infected.

I think you will find that the Diamond Princess figures are pretty much
exactly consistent with exponential growth in a finite population.
Daily increase in cases is running at approximately 1.4x so.

1.4^20 ~ 840

They were starting to get to the point where the virus transmission was
being partly limited by the number of uninfected people remaining on the
ship. As the proportion p that have had the virus increases a factor of
(1-p) multiplies the exponent in the later stages.

Also, the plain exponential model assumes people won't change their
behaviors.

That seems a pretty good assumption to me. People were out in the spring
sunshine doing everything they could to spread the virus last weekend

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-51995945/coronavirus-people-urged-to-stay-away-from-snowdonia

Many beauty spots had their busiest day ever. Utter madness!

Londoners fled to their second homes in the country bringing the virus.

I found this report useful-- Active Monitoring of Persons Exposed to
Patients with Confirmed COVID-19 — United States, January–February
2020
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6909e1.htm?s_cid=mm6909e1_w

quote> Among the first 10 patients with travel-related confirmed
COVID-19 reported in the United States, a total of 445 persons ...
who had close contact with one of the 10 patients on or after the
date of the patient’s symptom onset were identified...

US testing is complete crap and unreliable. The UK has done more tests
to date than the entire of the USA (we are way behind best practice).

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 7:52:56 PM UTC+11, Martin Brown wrote:

On 24/03/2020 00:46, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 4:43:12 PM UTC-4,
bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56



RL

That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly
immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of
susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that
each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within
just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of
replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much
about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the
fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is
relatively short, 99% of these people don't require
hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated.
His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist
looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his
stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the
chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.

The exponential model ignores people's limited social networks, and
assumes they will continue to infect new people at the same rate, ad
infinitum.

But only 20% of the Diamond Princess' sardines got WuFlu,
inconsistent with simple exponential growth. And only 3% of Wuhan's
population were ultimately infected.

I think you will find that the Diamond Princess figures are pretty much
exactly consistent with exponential growth in a finite population.
Daily increase in cases is running at approximately 1.4x so.

1.4^20 ~ 840

They were starting to get to the point where the virus transmission was
being partly limited by the number of uninfected people remaining on the
ship. As the proportion p that have had the virus increases a factor of
(1-p) multiplies the exponent in the later stages.

Also, the plain exponential model assumes people won't change their
behaviors.

That seems a pretty good assumption to me.

That was a statement about the model, not the process being modelled.

It takes work to get people to change their behaviour.

It may finally have happened in Italy, but if it has, it took a while for message to get through.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

<snip>

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Jasen Betts]

On 2020-03-23, mpm <mpmillard@aol.com> wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:17:43 AM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

Just because my sister-in-law claims it to be Chlorine doesn't mean that it actually is. (Although I suspect it is.)

What else would governments use to spray down streets that's cheap and effective?
She might mean chlorine bleach? IDK, haven't spoken to her yet.

yeah, sodium hypochlorite solution seems more likely than chlorine
gas... if you go to the pool shop and ask for "chlorine", this is the
stuff the sell you.

But, Serbia is more locked-down than the US.
Of course, it's a much smaller country, and they're quite literally used to war.

Ah, the old argument that USA is too big to do something sensible.
is the root cause a disproprotionate lack of resources or a disproportianate
lack of sensible people?

--
Jasen.

 

[Jasen Betts]

On 2020-03-22, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL

There're only a few things that can kill off the entire human race: a massive high speed asteroid strike, a cataclysmic mantle eruption, and global warming, to name a few. The bio stuff doesn't come close.

global warming isn't likely to kill off the very rich, which is
probably why they are not worried by it.


--
Jasen.

 

[Gerhard Hoffmann]

Am 23.03.20 um 12:37 schrieb mpm:

But, Serbia is more locked-down than the US.
Of course, it's a much smaller country, and they're quite literally used to war.

Since 1776 - 17 years without war. Beat that!

The 17 years include the big recession; war could not be
prefinanced then, probably.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 11:32:42 PM UTC+11, Jasen Betts wrote:

On 2020-03-23, mpm <mpmillard@aol.com> wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:17:43 AM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

Just because my sister-in-law claims it to be Chlorine doesn't mean that it actually is. (Although I suspect it is.)

What else would governments use to spray down streets that's cheap and effective?
She might mean chlorine bleach? IDK, haven't spoken to her yet.

yeah, sodium hypochlorite solution seems more likely than chlorine
gas... if you go to the pool shop and ask for "chlorine", this is the
stuff the sell you.

But, Serbia is more locked-down than the US.
Of course, it's a much smaller country, and they're quite literally used to war.

Ah, the old argument that USA is too big to do something sensible.
is the root cause a disproportionate lack of resources or a disproportionate
lack of sensible people?

Neither. It has a decidedly primitive political system, and people with money have a lot more influence than they do in other advanced industrial countries.

The rich make choices that look sensible to them, and the rest of the population has to work very hard to get them altered, with the rich spending some their money to make the process as difficult as possible.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 10:25:24 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 12:32:48 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:11:20 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 9:17:53 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 5:35:53 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 13:43:08 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL

That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is relatively short, 99% of these people don't require hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated. His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.

Sure, you can have all sorts of fun with a math model. Or a
spreadsheet. But the chloroquine might help, seems to help.

Flu viruses tend to mutate to be less lethal. It's not in their
interest to quickly kill the hosts that spread them.

But what impresses me is that an entire planet worth of viruses mutate
together. No one virus mutates and passes the less-lethal trend to its
offspring.

The people who study these things think this one we have now is some kind of hybrid of two wild strain corona viruses that exist naturally in nature. This would strengthen the theory that mixing up the animals in wild meat markets created the virus. Probably a bat/pangolin merger, or interspecies zoonosis.

Covid-19 is 96% identical with the ancestral bat corona virus. How this hydbridisation between what would have to be two closely related viruses might have happened needs to be discussed - they'd both have had to infected the same cell at the same time for any RNA mixing to have occurred.

The human genome is a 98% match with that of the common mouse.

And enormously larger.

Any other questions?

What made you think that this might be of any relevance?

It's sarcasm in response to your statement "How this hydbridisation between what would have to be two closely related viruses might have happened needs to be discussed - they'd both have had to infected the same cell at the same time for any RNA mixing to have occurred."

There are two ways in which a new strain of an RNA virus develops: 1) mutation and 2) recombination.

Mutation refers to an error in the transcription of the RNA into DNA for integration into the host cell nucleus. Corona has been found to be fairly stable in this regard.

Recombination is when two separate strains have infected the same host cell, both end up integrating DNA into the host nucleus simultaneously, causing progeny with mixed RNA from the two different strains. This becomes more likely as you mix up infected animals in close proximity as in those "wet" wild meat animal markets. Virologists are able to do very accurate PCRs on the resulting virus and identify the gene mixing exactly, and not just look at percentage overlaps of gene sequences. You can end up with very bad results like, and this really a mainly in this case, a brand new strain that now infects humans even though the two parent strains either did not infect humans or were harmless.

You might apprise yourself of the rudiments of the basic science before you make more statements as crazy as your vaccine development hysteria.

Quite why it might have seemed sensible to hypothesise isn't made clear either.

Fred isn't good at getting hold of reliable data. The Wuhan data listed 20% of those infected as being seriously or critically ill so his 99% not requiring hospitalisation is a very odd figure.

What's not reliable is the Chinese data. It is CCP data and therefore full of inconsistencies and fabrications.

This is claimed from time to time. The claim even less reliable than the Chinese data - basically a conspiracy theory fabrication.

It's not conspiracy theory, the CCP are compulsive liars even when there's nothing to cover up. No point in going over the ocean of history that justifies this characterization.

"As physicians and researchers have seen since the start of the outbreak, many infected people never become sick. As few as 14% of people in Wuhan with early coronavirus infections were being detected, said epidemiologist Jeffrey Shaman of the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, who led a study published on Monday in Science on undocumented coronavirus infections."

They got better a picking them out as the cases accumulated.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/lower-coronavirus-death-rate-estimates/

Jeffrey Sharman isn't listed as an author on the paper you seem to be relying on.

Not yet peer-reviewed and dated February 13, 2020, written by people a rather long way away from the actual patients

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7#author-information

is the published version that came out on the 19th March.

It seems to drag in a lot of non-CCP data, and makes it clear that it is based on a lot of assumptions (which are spelled out).

Epidemiological estimates tend to be logarithmic. It's not physical chemistry. There is too much variability to begin to formulate anything approaching the status of a scientific "rule."

There are other scarier developments unfolding. Something called antibody-dependent (disease) enhancement ADE is a big one, and a studied factor in the lethality of MERS, another corona virus.

This thing is going to around for the rest of our lives. Life will NEVER return to normal, and 1) people lose immunity after about a year or so, and 2) second time around infection /can/ be much worse due to this ADE phenomenon, and of course damage accumulated from a previous infection.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 11:08:56 AM UTC-4, legg wrote:

Per capita comparisons are interestion.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

China locked down the affected cities in total. Here in the US we are doing a half-ass approach to "social distancing" which so far has not been measurably effective at all.

I don't believe it is too late to contain this virus, but we are literally at the cusp. If we were to lock down the affected areas of the country in total we might be able to prevent a Wuhan collapse of our medical system. But for that requires literally action right now. We are at the point where if all new infections were prevented we will still be testing the limits of the medical systems in many areas of the country.

So yeah, you are most likely right, containment is not possible.

In lieu of full lock down the only other way to contain this virus is the Vo approach, massive testing to isolate anyone with the virus. However, we already know that isn't possible from lack of test capability.

--

Rick C.

---- Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
---- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[legg]

Per capita comparisons are interestion.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

RL

 

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 7:14:03 PM UTC-4, Clifford Heath wrote:

On 23/3/20 9:38 am, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
There're only a few things that can kill off the entire human race: a massive high speed asteroid strike, a cataclysmic mantle eruption, and global warming, to name a few. The bio stuff doesn't come close.

Death of the human race (loss of the genome) is not likely, not from
this, and not from climate change.

It's the loss of human civilisation that's at risk here.

Some argue that the USA never had it anyway, of course .
"straight from barbarism to decadence" or something like that, I recall.

CH

Lynn Anderson called it over 50 years ago. Little did she know she would be a voice for Mother Nature. Global Warming will most definitely wipe the slate clean of the is scourge.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-eclUz-RYI

 

[mpm]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 11:34:28 AM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 11:08:56 AM UTC-4, legg wrote:
Per capita comparisons are interestion.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

China locked down the affected cities in total. Here in the US we are doing a half-ass approach to "social distancing" which so far has not been measurably effective at all.

I don't believe it is too late to contain this virus, but we are literally at the cusp. If we were to lock down the affected areas of the country in total we might be able to prevent a Wuhan collapse of our medical system. But for that requires literally action right now. We are at the point where if all new infections were prevented we will still be testing the limits of the medical systems in many areas of the country.

So yeah, you are most likely right, containment is not possible.

In lieu of full lock down the only other way to contain this virus is the Vo approach, massive testing to isolate anyone with the virus. However, we already know that isn't possible from lack of test capability.

--

Rick C.

---- Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
---- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

You're getting there.... just slowly.

Eventually, you're going to realize that the government isn't equipped to handle this. At best, they'll play catch-up, too late and after-the-fact for all those who died.

Starting to sound a lot like one of the arguments for gun-ownership (for self-protection), when you realize the police are only ten minutes away, but the need is NOW. Sound vaguely familiar yet?

That's not saying a gun will kill the virus.
But if there's rioting and lawlessness, I don't see the benefit in waiting around for industry to supply enough batons and police vehicles to keep the peace on a massive scale (if it comes to that - hopefully it won't)

I guess I'm just saying: Don't rely on the government to protect you.
They truly aren't up to the task, as evidenced by the ongoing outbreak.
Or, if you affirmatively choose to rely on them, at least be prepared for a let down or two.

 

[mpm]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 8:32:42 AM UTC-4, Jasen Betts wrote:

Ah, the old argument that USA is too big to do something sensible.
is the root cause a disproprotionate lack of resources or a disproportianate
lack of sensible people?

No, it's just 50x bigger and therefore more difficult.
But since you brought it up, the total population of Serbia is about 7 Million +/-. We probably have 7 million CRAZY people here.

Some would argue 7 million + one, if you include Trump.

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 2:33:54 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:

You're getting there.... just slowly.

Eventually, you're going to realize that the government isn't equipped to handle this. At best, they'll play catch-up, too late and after-the-fact for all those who died.

Starting to sound a lot like one of the arguments for gun-ownership (for self-protection), when you realize the police are only ten minutes away, but the need is NOW. Sound vaguely familiar yet?

I'd like a heavy duty weed whacker which would have a MUCH higher probability of every actually being used. Do they make gas powered semi-autos?

That's not saying a gun will kill the virus.
But if there's rioting and lawlessness, I don't see the benefit in waiting around for industry to supply enough batons and police vehicles to keep the peace on a massive scale (if it comes to that - hopefully it won't)

Oh, so true! But Trump won't allow that to happen. It might hamper the economic comeback.

I guess I'm just saying: Don't rely on the government to protect you.
They truly aren't up to the task, as evidenced by the ongoing outbreak.
Or, if you affirmatively choose to rely on them, at least be prepared for a let down or two.

I'm mainly concerned about protection FROM the government and there are no arms to help with that. As big as mine might be, their would be bigger and they've got a lot more of them.

If my neighborhood breaks out in rioting then there's nothing I could do either way. The neighbors are all much better armed than I would be too. I'll just go ahead and toss the toilet paper out the window to them.

--

Rick C.

---+ Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
---+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 4:52:56 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:

On 24/03/2020 00:46, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 4:43:12 PM UTC-4,
bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56



RL

That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly
immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of
susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that
each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within
just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of
replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much
about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the
fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is
relatively short, 99% of these people don't require
hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated.
His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist
looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his
stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the
chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.

The exponential model ignores people's limited social networks, and
assumes they will continue to infect new people at the same rate, ad
infinitum.

But only 20% of the Diamond Princess' sardines got WuFlu,
inconsistent with simple exponential growth. And only 3% of Wuhan's
population were ultimately infected.

I think you will find that the Diamond Princess figures are pretty much
exactly consistent with exponential growth in a finite population.
Daily increase in cases is running at approximately 1.4x so.

1.4^20 ~ 840

They were starting to get to the point where the virus transmission was
being partly limited by the number of uninfected people remaining on the
ship. As the proportion p that have had the virus increases a factor of
(1-p) multiplies the exponent in the later stages.

Wiki's article on this says the Diamond Princess was more complicated
than I realized -- new cases were being continually removed from the
plague ship, for one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_cruise_ships#Diamond_Princess

Also, the plain exponential model assumes people won't change their
behaviors.

That seems a pretty good assumption to me. People were out in the spring
sunshine doing everything they could to spread the virus last weekend

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-51995945/coronavirus-people-urged-to-stay-away-from-snowdonia

Many beauty spots had their busiest day ever. Utter madness!

Londoners fled to their second homes in the country bringing the virus.

My area's normally-busy streets have been empty the last two weeks.
No trucks, no workmen, no construction. Children don't play, cars
are rare, restaurants and other businesses are closed. Schools are
closed. Meetings cancelled. Events rescheduled for August.

The still-open businesses cut their hours, grim-faced employees
patrolling with bleach-spray phasers, nuking suspicious surfaces.

I went for a walk yesterday & saw two neighbors talking from opposite
sides of the street, keeping their distance. They looked afraid.

I'd count that as "people changing their behavior."

I found this report useful-- Active Monitoring of Persons Exposed to
Patients with Confirmed COVID-19 — United States, January–February
2020
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6909e1.htm?s_cid=mm6909e1_w

quote> Among the first 10 patients with travel-related confirmed
COVID-19 reported in the United States, a total of 445 persons ...
who had close contact with one of the 10 patients on or after the
date of the patient’s symptom onset were identified...

US testing is complete crap and unreliable. The UK has done more tests
to date than the entire of the USA (we are way behind best practice).

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

The U.K.'s tactics got the U.K. a massive dose of WuFlu. Prompt
travel restrictions helped the U.S. tremendously -- that got us
a very-valuable few weeks compared to the U.K. -- but it's here
and of course it will spread.

Who cares about testing? That didn't save a single country. The
data will be useful after. But you can't test your way out of a
plague.

Corona and rhinoviruses also cause the common cold. We've never
stopped either virus. Nor have we ever tracked one in real-time
on social media, for that matter.

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 3:25:54 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

Wiki's article on this says the Diamond Princess was more complicated
than I realized -- new cases were being continually removed from the
plague ship, for one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_cruise_ships#Diamond_Princess

I bet they didn't say anything about the semi-auto gunfire exchanges! That's what killed a lot more of the octogenarians than the virus.

My area's normally-busy streets have been empty the last two weeks.
No trucks, no workmen, no construction. Children don't play, cars
are rare, restaurants and other businesses are closed. Schools are
closed. Meetings cancelled. Events rescheduled for August.

The still-open businesses cut their hours, grim-faced employees
patrolling with bleach-spray phasers, nuking suspicious surfaces.

All that is probably from the knowledge of the extreme gun sales during this crisis. Who would go out on streets so heavily armed? It would be like walking down the main street of Hadleyville at high noon.

I went for a walk yesterday & saw two neighbors talking from opposite
sides of the street, keeping their distance. They looked afraid.

Afraid of not knowing if the other had guns on them I'm sure.


> I'd count that as "people changing their behavior."

As Mao said, "from the barrel of a gun".

The U.K.'s tactics got the U.K. a massive dose of WuFlu. Prompt
travel restrictions helped the U.S. tremendously -- that got us
a very-valuable few weeks compared to the U.K. -- but it's here
and of course it will spread.

Huh? Then why is our infection count seven times higher than in the UK? Our bumbling government not leading/acting for the nation and leaving it up to each state has cost us terribly. Our infection growth rate is significantly higher than in the UK and the travel restriction did nothing measurable to help.

Who cares about testing? That didn't save a single country. The
data will be useful after. But you can't test your way out of a
plague.

Not sure what you mean by "save". Widespread testing is one reason why South Korea has done so well in spite of their early infection. By the beginning of March they were over their hump without even reaching 1000 new infections per day and a total so far of only 100 deaths. I believe it was at least in part the widespread testing that *has* saved South Korea.

The one I'm wondering about is North Korea. It is not at all unlike them to send people into the south with the infection. Meanwhile we hear nothing about how badly they have the virus.

Corona and rhinoviruses also cause the common cold. We've never
stopped either virus. Nor have we ever tracked one in real-time
on social media, for that matter.

We've never tried to stop any of these viruses because there is not sufficient benefit. We did take extreme measures to stop Ebola when it came into the country. If that started to spread should we not lock down the affected areas? Of course we would because of the high mortality rate. CV19 isn't Ebola, but it's not the flu either.

--

Rick C.

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