Dutch scientists contradict scientists on settled science...

[Gerhard Hoffmann]

Am 05.08.20 um 20:51 schrieb Ricketty C:

> It\'s very frustrating to try to discuss something when > the other person chooses to reject or ignore the facts.

\"To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like
administering medicine to the dead.\" - Thomas Paine

 

[Klaus Kragelund]

On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 11:35:48 PM UTC+2, John Larkin wrote:

On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 22:41:09 +0200, Gerhard Hoffmann <dk...@arcor.de
wrote:
Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin:


No-lockdown Sweden isn\'t doing as bad as some nearby countries. We\'ll
really find out in winter.

Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet.

Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times
more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75%
in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot.

Sweden\'s Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other,
but not to Sweden.

Dream on.

Gerhard
Sweden is 569 PPM dead so far. Below Belguim, Spain, Italy, UK. So so
far, not an obviously catastrophic policy. Some european countries may
be starting ominous secondary bumps. There could well be a winter
effect coming too.

You cannot compare Sweden to Spain and Italy. Italy and Spain was hit hard in the beginning before anybody knew what was going on since they both have industrial areas linked directly with business with Wuhan

The Swedes was just stupid and stubbornly insisted on their own strategy (the Chief virologist has admitted this)

Sweden\'s 7-day-averaged daily death rate is now zero. Zero is good. UK
is 64.

If Sweden is not locked down, why has the death rate fallen to zero?
Why has it fallen at all, with total cases only 0.8% of the
population?

It is a widespread falsehood that Sweden did nothing. They just didn\'t lock down everything, like restaurants and businesses

Cheers

Klaus

 

[Jasen Betts]

On 2020-08-05, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com> wrote:

Monday again we had two new cases. I think for our county the virus is
pretty much done yet they keep us shut down (with some staunch
resistance, of course).

The incubation period is up to two weeks before symptoms develop, so
they need to persist for that long with no new unexplained cases to
avoid a very nasty surprise. After that they still need to keep
the borders with other places that are still infected closed, and
quarrantine arrivals and contacts of the known cases etc.

--
Jasen.

 

[John Larkin]

On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 21:34:41 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
<jasen@xnet.co.nz> wrote:

On 2020-08-05, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com> wrote:

Monday again we had two new cases. I think for our county the virus is
pretty much done yet they keep us shut down (with some staunch
resistance, of course).

The incubation period is up to two weeks before symptoms develop, so
they need to persist for that long with no new unexplained cases to
avoid a very nasty surprise. After that they still need to keep
the borders with other places that are still infected closed, and
quarrantine arrivals and contacts of the known cases etc.

Yes. Shutdown forever.

 

[Ricketty C]

On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 4:29:24 PM UTC-4, Klaus Kragelund wrote:

On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 11:35:48 PM UTC+2, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 22:41:09 +0200, Gerhard Hoffmann <dk...@arcor.de
wrote:
Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin:


No-lockdown Sweden isn\'t doing as bad as some nearby countries. We\'ll
really find out in winter.

Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet.

Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times
more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75%
in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot.

Sweden\'s Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other,
but not to Sweden.

Dream on.

Gerhard
Sweden is 569 PPM dead so far. Below Belguim, Spain, Italy, UK. So so
far, not an obviously catastrophic policy. Some european countries may
be starting ominous secondary bumps. There could well be a winter
effect coming too.


You cannot compare Sweden to Spain and Italy. Italy and Spain was hit hard in the beginning before anybody knew what was going on since they both have industrial areas linked directly with business with Wuhan

The Swedes was just stupid and stubbornly insisted on their own strategy (the Chief virologist has admitted this)

Sweden\'s 7-day-averaged daily death rate is now zero. Zero is good. UK
is 64.

If Sweden is not locked down, why has the death rate fallen to zero?
Why has it fallen at all, with total cases only 0.8% of the
population?

It is a widespread falsehood that Sweden did nothing. They just didn\'t lock down everything, like restaurants and businesses

My understanding is that over the last month or so they did close a lot more and that is what turned the tide to reduce the infection rate. Did they continue to allow restaurants and bars to serve people? I recall seeing a video of people rather tightly packed into an outside dining area on a beautiful day. I assume this was not something that continued in July? Otherwise why would the infection rate change so precipitously in July?

--

Rick C.

-+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Ricketty C]

On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 6:02:38 PM UTC-4, Jasen Betts wrote:

On 2020-08-05, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com> wrote:

Monday again we had two new cases. I think for our county the virus is
pretty much done yet they keep us shut down (with some staunch
resistance, of course).

The incubation period is up to two weeks before symptoms develop, so
they need to persist for that long with no new unexplained cases to
avoid a very nasty surprise. After that they still need to keep
the borders with other places that are still infected closed, and
quarrantine arrivals and contacts of the known cases etc.

Here is someone who gets it. However that isn\'t going to happen in El Dorado county. They have a major highway passing through connecting Scramento to South Tahoe. It\'s not like they can stop people from stopping to charge their EVs.

What can be done is to continue to practice the various safe practices and very importantly do the contact tracing and quarantining that prevents the known infections from spreading.

Why don\'t people understand that as soon as you take your finger out of the dike, the leak resumes?

--

Rick C.

-++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 12:04:33 PM UTC+10, Ricketty C wrote:

On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 4:29:24 PM UTC-4, Klaus Kragelund wrote:
On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 11:35:48 PM UTC+2, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 22:41:09 +0200, Gerhard Hoffmann <dk...@arcor.de
wrote:
Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin:

No-lockdown Sweden isn\'t doing as bad as some nearby countries. We\'ll
really find out in winter.

Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet.

Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times
more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75%
in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot.

Sweden\'s Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other,
but not to Sweden.

Dream on.

Sweden is 569 PPM dead so far. Below Belguim, Spain, Italy, UK. So so
far, not an obviously catastrophic policy. Some european countries may
be starting ominous secondary bumps. There could well be a winter
effect coming too.

You cannot compare Sweden to Spain and Italy. Italy and Spain was hit hard in the beginning before anybody knew what was going on since they both have industrial areas linked directly with business with Wuhan

The Swedes was just stupid and stubbornly insisted on their own strategy (the Chief virologist has admitted this)

Sweden\'s 7-day-averaged daily death rate is now zero. Zero is good.

There were five new deaths there yesterday. Larkin was doing his usual cherry-picking.

UK is 64.

If Sweden is not locked down, why has the death rate fallen to zero?
Why has it fallen at all, with total cases only 0.8% of the
population?

It is a widespread falsehood that Sweden did nothing. They just didn\'t lock down everything, like restaurants and businesses.

My understanding is that over the last month or so they did close a lot more and that is what turned the tide to reduce the infection rate. Did they continue to allow restaurants and bars to serve people? I recall seeing a video of people rather tightly packed into an outside dining area on a beautiful day. I assume this was not something that continued in July? Otherwise why would the infection rate change so precipitously in July?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

It certainly went down a lot. The Swedes do have a national habit of heading off to remote bits of the country (and small adjacent island in the Baltic) in summer, which would reduce opportunities for infection. That\'s more August than July, but prudent people might have started their holidays early..

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 12:26:39 PM UTC+10, Ricketty C wrote:

On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 6:02:38 PM UTC-4, Jasen Betts wrote:
On 2020-08-05, Joerg <ne...@analogconsultants.com> wrote:

Monday again we had two new cases. I think for our county the virus is
pretty much done yet they keep us shut down (with some staunch
resistance, of course).

The incubation period is up to two weeks before symptoms develop, so
they need to persist for that long with no new unexplained cases to
avoid a very nasty surprise. After that they still need to keep
the borders with other places that are still infected closed, and
quarrantine arrivals and contacts of the known cases etc.

Here is someone who gets it. However that isn\'t going to happen in El Dorado county. They have a major highway passing through connecting Scramento to South Tahoe. It\'s not like they can stop people from stopping to charge their EVs.

What can be done is to continue to practice the various safe practices and very importantly do the contact tracing and quarantining that prevents the known infections from spreading.

Why don\'t people understand that as soon as you take your finger out of the dike, the leak resumes?

It\'s not so much that John Larkin doesn\'t understand - he isn\'t stupid - but rather than he doesn\'t want to understand. He wants his customers to come back and get on with spending money by buying stuff from Highland Electronics. The idea that this might kill some of his customers and some of his staff is not one that he\'s willing to entertain.

__
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Jan Panteltje]

On a sunny day (Wed, 05 Aug 2020 16:29:52 -0700) it happened John Larkin
<jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote in
<r6gmifhuv5bs9ntdpmkr3knvsq0h2i7m9u@4ax.com>:

On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 21:34:41 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
jasen@xnet.co.nz> wrote:

On 2020-08-05, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com> wrote:

Monday again we had two new cases. I think for our county the virus is
pretty much done yet they keep us shut down (with some staunch
resistance, of course).

The incubation period is up to two weeks before symptoms develop, so
they need to persist for that long with no new unexplained cases to
avoid a very nasty surprise. After that they still need to keep
the borders with other places that are still infected closed, and
quarrantine arrivals and contacts of the known cases etc.

Yes. Shutdown forever.

That is the problem, without every body vaccinated with something that works 100%
eventually all the ones that have no natural anti-bodies will die.
Then the mask wearers will claim how good their system worked as there are no more cases
and the no-mask wearers will claim masks were never needed at all.

As to vaccination, probably many will die from that, as it seems
many companies go for the big money and the minimum testing in the shortest time.
A total madhouse,
add a few comics politicians in control and you have the chaos we have now.
I have read humans can contaminate cats and dogs, and stray cats are all over the place here.
Sometimes I have to chase those out of the garden.
So will we have a no pets law?

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 4:22:09 PM UTC+10, Jan Panteltje wrote:

On a sunny day (Wed, 05 Aug 2020 16:29:52 -0700) it happened John Larkin
jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote in
r6gmifhuv5bs9ntdp...@4ax.com>:
On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 21:34:41 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
ja...@xnet.co.nz> wrote:

On 2020-08-05, Joerg <ne...@analogconsultants.com> wrote:

<snip>

Yes. Shutdown forever.

That is the problem, without every body vaccinated with something that works 100%
eventually all the ones that have no natural anti-bodies will die.

Wrong.You only have to vaccinate enough of the population to reach herd immunity levels.

That\'s something like 95% with something seriously infectious, like measles and there are enough lunatic antivaxers around to make this difficult.

Covid-19 is much less infectious, and 40% should do the job.

<Snipped more idiocy>

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Martin Brown]

On 06/08/2020 09:38, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 4:22:09 PM UTC+10, Jan Panteltje wrote:
On a sunny day (Wed, 05 Aug 2020 16:29:52 -0700) it happened John Larkin
jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote in
r6gmifhuv5bs9ntdp...@4ax.com>:
On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 21:34:41 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
ja...@xnet.co.nz> wrote:

On 2020-08-05, Joerg <ne...@analogconsultants.com> wrote:

snip

Yes. Shutdown forever.

That is the problem, without every body vaccinated with something that works 100%
eventually all the ones that have no natural anti-bodies will die.

*NO* 99% of all the people who get it will *survive*. An unlucky 1% will
die and 2% will suffer lingering after effects that may never go away.
If we can vaccinate to the herd immunity level then R will drop below 1
and the virus will be reduced to sporadic events incapable of community
transmission.

It produces less serious symptoms in the young so it will almost
certainly end up as a childhood disease like OC43 did after its initial
pandemic entry in 1890. Symptoms in adults and IFR almost identical to
today\'s Covid pandemic (though that one was from cattle not bats).

Wrong.You only have to vaccinate enough of the population to reach herd immunity levels.

That\'s something like 95% with something seriously infectious, like measles and there are enough lunatic antivaxers around to make this difficult.

Covid-19 is much less infectious, and 40% should do the job.

It isn\'t all *that* much less infectious - estimates of R0 have gone up
and herd immunity now will require at least 60% uptake possibly more.

https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-r0-and-herd-immunity

I have seen recent credible estimates of R0 at 5.7 which is more than
double what they estimated initially form the Chinese Wuhan data.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/04/07/the-covid19-coronavirus-disease-may-be-twice-as-contagious-as-we-thought/#3ea2d9929a6a

That puts herd immunity for Covid up at 80+%
(assuming we can get a fully working vaccine)

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 6:36:55 PM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:

On 06/08/2020 02:58, Ricketty C wrote:
On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 3:32:36 PM UTC-4, John Robertson
wrote:
On 2020/08/05 10:51 a.m., Joerg wrote:
On 2020-08-04 15:51, John Larkin wrote:

<snip>

If you are over 70 or a 600lb couch potato with hypertension or diabetes
you are right to be worried but otherwise you can lookup the latest age
related risk factor for Covid infection fatality rate in the UK.

Then look them up for measles. It was about 0.2%. It didn\'t kill all that may people, but it did kill some.

Covid-19 isn\'t a disease you should be casual about.There also seems to be persistent damage in some young people who get a severe infection.

The median value across the population is presently 1.3% +/- 0.2% as of
7/6/2020. The under 45\'s worst case IFR is now just 0.03% or 300ppm and
it is a factor of six lower still for the under 25s.

Comforting, until you discover- the hard way - that you are one of the unusually vulnerable people.

> https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/report-on-nowcasting-and-forecasting-6th-july-2020/

It doesn\'t seem to say what you appear to be trying to say.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[server]

On Thu, 6 Aug 2020 10:33:43 +0100, Martin Brown
<\'\'\'newspam\'\'\'@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

On 06/08/2020 09:38, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 4:22:09 PM UTC+10, Jan Panteltje wrote:
On a sunny day (Wed, 05 Aug 2020 16:29:52 -0700) it happened John Larkin
jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote in
r6gmifhuv5bs9ntdp...@4ax.com>:
On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 21:34:41 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
ja...@xnet.co.nz> wrote:

On 2020-08-05, Joerg <ne...@analogconsultants.com> wrote:

snip

Yes. Shutdown forever.

That is the problem, without every body vaccinated with something that works 100%
eventually all the ones that have no natural anti-bodies will die.

*NO* 99% of all the people who get it will *survive*. An unlucky 1% will
die and 2% will suffer lingering after effects that may never go away.
If we can vaccinate to the herd immunity level then R will drop below 1
and the virus will be reduced to sporadic events incapable of community
transmission.

It produces less serious symptoms in the young so it will almost
certainly end up as a childhood disease like OC43 did after its initial
pandemic entry in 1890. Symptoms in adults and IFR almost identical to
today\'s Covid pandemic (though that one was from cattle not bats).

Wrong.You only have to vaccinate enough of the population to reach herd immunity levels.

That\'s something like 95% with something seriously infectious, like measles and there are enough lunatic antivaxers around to make this difficult.

Covid-19 is much less infectious, and 40% should do the job.

It isn\'t all *that* much less infectious - estimates of R0 have gone up
and herd immunity now will require at least 60% uptake possibly more.

https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-r0-and-herd-immunity

I have seen recent credible estimates of R0 at 5.7 which is more than
double what they estimated initially form the Chinese Wuhan data.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/04/07/the-covid19-coronavirus-disease-may-be-twice-as-contagious-as-we-thought/#3ea2d9929a6a

That puts herd immunity for Covid up at 80+%
(assuming we can get a fully working vaccine)

Only if everyone is suceptable.

https://reason.com/2020/07/01/covid-19-herd-immunity-is-much-closer-than-antibody-tests-suggest-say-2-new-studies/

What if R is high but only among a fraction of the population?

This thing seems to peak and fade at low case infection levels, far
below 80%.

R is often circular reasoning.






--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Ricketty C]

On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 10:50:18 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Thu, 6 Aug 2020 10:33:43 +0100, Martin Brown
\'\'\'newspam\'\'\'@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

On 06/08/2020 09:38, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 4:22:09 PM UTC+10, Jan Panteltje wrote:
On a sunny day (Wed, 05 Aug 2020 16:29:52 -0700) it happened John Larkin
jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote in
r6gmifhuv5bs9ntdp...@4ax.com>:
On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 21:34:41 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
ja...@xnet.co.nz> wrote:

On 2020-08-05, Joerg <ne...@analogconsultants.com> wrote:

snip

Yes. Shutdown forever.

That is the problem, without every body vaccinated with something that works 100%
eventually all the ones that have no natural anti-bodies will die.

*NO* 99% of all the people who get it will *survive*. An unlucky 1% will
die and 2% will suffer lingering after effects that may never go away.
If we can vaccinate to the herd immunity level then R will drop below 1
and the virus will be reduced to sporadic events incapable of community
transmission.

It produces less serious symptoms in the young so it will almost
certainly end up as a childhood disease like OC43 did after its initial
pandemic entry in 1890. Symptoms in adults and IFR almost identical to
today\'s Covid pandemic (though that one was from cattle not bats).

Wrong.You only have to vaccinate enough of the population to reach herd immunity levels.

That\'s something like 95% with something seriously infectious, like measles and there are enough lunatic antivaxers around to make this difficult..

Covid-19 is much less infectious, and 40% should do the job.

It isn\'t all *that* much less infectious - estimates of R0 have gone up
and herd immunity now will require at least 60% uptake possibly more.

https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-r0-and-herd-immunity

I have seen recent credible estimates of R0 at 5.7 which is more than
double what they estimated initially form the Chinese Wuhan data.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/04/07/the-covid19-coronavirus-disease-may-be-twice-as-contagious-as-we-thought/#3ea2d9929a6a

That puts herd immunity for Covid up at 80+%
(assuming we can get a fully working vaccine)

Only if everyone is suceptable.

https://reason.com/2020/07/01/covid-19-herd-immunity-is-much-closer-than-antibody-tests-suggest-say-2-new-studies/

What if R is high but only among a fraction of the population?

You don\'t seem to understand the R number. It is not measured over a portion of the population or individuals. It is measured over the population. The fact that some people are more infectious or more likely to be infected if exposed is not isolated. It is a measure of the speed of spreading of the disease in the population.

Why would it matter if some are more easily infected than others???

This thing seems to peak and fade at low case infection levels, far
below 80%.

Yes, because the R number is dependent on behavior and behavior changes with changes in the infection even if it is only the passage of time. People get tired of being cooped up and start taking chances. Infections go up.

> R is often circular reasoning.

Please explain.

--

Rick C.

---- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
---- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Martin Brown]

On 06/08/2020 15:50, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Thu, 6 Aug 2020 10:33:43 +0100, Martin Brown
\'\'\'newspam\'\'\'@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

On 06/08/2020 09:38, Bill Sloman wrote:

Covid-19 is much less infectious, and 40% should do the job.

It isn\'t all *that* much less infectious - estimates of R0 have gone up
and herd immunity now will require at least 60% uptake possibly more.

https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-r0-and-herd-immunity

I have seen recent credible estimates of R0 at 5.7 which is more than
double what they estimated initially form the Chinese Wuhan data.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/04/07/the-covid19-coronavirus-disease-may-be-twice-as-contagious-as-we-thought/#3ea2d9929a6a

That puts herd immunity for Covid up at 80+%
(assuming we can get a fully working vaccine)

Only if everyone is suceptable.

https://reason.com/2020/07/01/covid-19-herd-immunity-is-much-closer-than-antibody-tests-suggest-say-2-new-studies/

What if R is high but only among a fraction of the population?

The fraction of the population that do not get infected appears to be
vanishingly small. You forget that hapless US choir that managed to put
a bound of 87% on it and so killed some of their members.

The proportion of those infected that are truly asymptomatic has been
going down as more symptoms are added to the official list. But you are
still infectious without showing symptoms - that is how it escapes.

This thing seems to peak and fade at low case infection levels, far
below 80%.

It only stops rising exponentially when there are strong interventions.
Most of Europe is losing control again now with rising summer spikes as
young holiday makers and alcohol fuelled antics break social distancing.

UK locked down late and was well into exponential growth because somehow
the experts advising the government had not noticed that the doubling
time was not the 5 or 6 days of their models but 3 days in reality. A
week delay of lockdown made the problem in the UK and resulting
fatalities 4x higher than what they could have been.

Even so it was a lockdown that was essential in London but not really
needed in most of the rest of the country. UK is incredibly centralised
the entire country is run for the benefit of London and the South East.

UK test and trace is predictably a disaster run by dodgy subcontractors
who have previous for defrauding the Ministry of Justice! The UK\'s DIY
\"world beating\" phone app is a steaming heap of dingoes kidneys.

> R is often circular reasoning.

I don\'t particularly like R because it is not easily derived from
measurable data and is subject to ad hoc modelling assumptions. The case
doubling time (data smoothed as a 7 day rolling average) is much better.

Only when we find the herd immunity threshold will we truly have an
accurate value for R0. The slop in the UK values is huge right now.

Curiously they are seeing rising infection rates but much lower hospital
admissions (thought to be because most of them are fit young people).
The same anomaly was observed in Germany when the ski set were infected
right at the outset (German efficiency also played a part).

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, August 7, 2020 at 6:20:31 PM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:

On 06/08/2020 15:50, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 6 Aug 2020 10:33:43 +0100, Martin Brown
\'\'\'newspam\'\'\'@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

On 06/08/2020 09:38, Bill Sloman wrote:

<snip>

I don\'t particularly like R because it is not easily derived from
measurable data and is subject to ad hoc modelling assumptions. The case
doubling time (data smoothed as a 7 day rolling average) is much better.

It\'s perfectly well defined if you are doing perfect contact tracing. Each infected person can infect a number of other people, and if you can count the number that person has infected you\'ve got an R value for that particular person in their particular situation, at that particular time.

Real data is rarely that good. There\'s nothing about looking at doubling times that makes the data any better.

The R-value for the population at a whole is is just the average of all the individual R-values.

Only when we find the herd immunity threshold will we truly have an
accurate value for R0. The slop in the UK values is huge right now.

The herd immunity threshold won\'t give you an accurate value for R0. It may give you a value for a particular population at a a particular time, but the population is composed of different individuals, who behave differently, partly because different people always behave differently, and partly because human behavior can be influenced their perceptions of the situation. Even the most fanatically sociable person will put themselves about less in the middle of an epidemic, even if it is mainly because the less fanatically sociable will tend to avoid them.

Curiously they are seeing rising infection rates but much lower hospital
admissions (thought to be because most of them are fit young people).

What\'s curious about that?

The same anomaly was observed in Germany when the ski set were infected
right at the outset (German efficiency also played a part).

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 7:33:50 PM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:

On 06/08/2020 09:38, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 4:22:09 PM UTC+10, Jan Panteltje wrote:
On a sunny day (Wed, 05 Aug 2020 16:29:52 -0700) it happened John Larkin
jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote in
r6gmifhuv5bs9ntdp...@4ax.com>:
On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 21:34:41 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
ja...@xnet.co.nz> wrote:

On 2020-08-05, Joerg <ne...@analogconsultants.com> wrote:

<snip>

Wrong.You only have to vaccinate enough of the population to reach herd immunity levels.

That\'s something like 95% with something seriously infectious, like measles and there are enough lunatic antivaxers around to make this difficult.

Covid-19 is much less infectious, and 40% should do the job.
It isn\'t all *that* much less infectious - estimates of R0 have gone up
and herd immunity now will require at least 60% uptake possibly more.

https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-r0-and-herd-immunity

That\'s simple minded. There a distribution of R-vales from individual to individual, and the more sociable are more likely to infect other people, and get infected themselves. As the epidemic progresses, they get infected more often and either die or or become immune. This reduces the average R-value over the rest of the community. Plug that into your simulation and you only need to get rid of the most infectious 20% of the population to reach herd immunity.

It is still only a simulation, but the situation is a little more complicated than is easy to fit into a math tutorial.

I have seen recent credible estimates of R0 at 5.7 which is more than
double what they estimated initially form the Chinese Wuhan data.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/04/07/the-covid19-coronavirus-disease-may-be-twice-as-contagious-as-we-thought/#3ea2d9929a6a

But it is still data about the Chinese population

> That puts herd immunity for Covid up at 80+% (assuming we can get a fully working vaccine) .

You don\'t need a working vaccine to get herd immunity - people getting sick and becoming immune after they have recovered (if they recover) is the traditional method. When I got measles as a kid, the epidemic of which I was a part went away because enough of us had got sick and become immune to get the community back up to the herd immunity level. It took a new batch kids of getting out into the schools to take us back below the herd immunity level to permit a new epidemic.

It kills people. Vaccination doesn\'t kill anything like as many people.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[server]

On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 4:41:15 PM UTC-4, Gerhard Hoffmann wrote:

Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin:


No-lockdown Sweden isn\'t doing as bad as some nearby countries. We\'ll
really find out in winter.

Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet.

Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times
more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75%
in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot.

Sweden\'s Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other,
but not to Sweden.

Dream on.

Gerhard

But why only compare Sweden to its immediate neighbors?

This Danish economist compares mortality in 24 European countries
and finds no relation of death rates to lock-down level. Sweden\'s
death rate is higher than its locked-down neighbors, but lower than
strict lock-down UK, Spain, and Italy, and only slightly higher
than strict lock-down France.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3665588

Summarized here (without the need to download the paper)
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/08/did-lockdowns-work-evidence-says-no.php

In the U.S., the places with the strictest lock-downs (New York, New
Jersey) had by far the highest death rates. But now that the virus
has run its course through those states and they\'ve killed a huge
portion of their elderly nursing home population, through no effort
of theirs, their deaths are falling and now California (strictly-
locked-down for nearly five months), has the most new cases.

In short, in the U.S., and Europe, there\'s precious little evidence
that locking up healthy people reduces SARS-CoV2 spread or mortality.

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

[server]

On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 7:49:33 AM UTC-4, Gerhard Hoffmann wrote:

Am 05.08.20 um 13:28 schrieb Phil Hobbs:

I wear a mask when I\'m in the store or someplace like that, but
primarily to be polite to the people who work there.

Same here. I\'m not infected, I don\'t pose any risk to anyone, but
there\'s no way they can know that. Plus then I don\'t have to shave.

Me too, but primarily for the same reason I have a 10 dB pad
on the input of my spectrum analyzer normally.

Cheers

Gerhard


I should have done that before I shot my SNA-33. :-(

Only a 10dB pad? You\'re a wildman!

Cheers,
James \"20dB SA pad\" Arthur

 

[server]

On Fri, 7 Aug 2020 09:20:22 +0100, Martin Brown
<\'\'\'newspam\'\'\'@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

On 06/08/2020 15:50, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 6 Aug 2020 10:33:43 +0100, Martin Brown
\'\'\'newspam\'\'\'@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

On 06/08/2020 09:38, Bill Sloman wrote:

Covid-19 is much less infectious, and 40% should do the job.

It isn\'t all *that* much less infectious - estimates of R0 have gone up
and herd immunity now will require at least 60% uptake possibly more.

https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-r0-and-herd-immunity

I have seen recent credible estimates of R0 at 5.7 which is more than
double what they estimated initially form the Chinese Wuhan data.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/04/07/the-covid19-coronavirus-disease-may-be-twice-as-contagious-as-we-thought/#3ea2d9929a6a

That puts herd immunity for Covid up at 80+%
(assuming we can get a fully working vaccine)

Only if everyone is suceptable.

https://reason.com/2020/07/01/covid-19-herd-immunity-is-much-closer-than-antibody-tests-suggest-say-2-new-studies/

What if R is high but only among a fraction of the population?

The fraction of the population that do not get infected appears to be
vanishingly small. You forget that hapless US choir that managed to put
a bound of 87% on it and so killed some of their members.

The proportion of those infected that are truly asymptomatic has been
going down as more symptoms are added to the official list. But you are
still infectious without showing symptoms - that is how it escapes.

This thing seems to peak and fade at low case infection levels, far
below 80%.

It only stops rising exponentially when there are strong interventions.

That creates \"The reserve army of the uninfected.\" That works about as
well as Communism worked.

Most of Europe is losing control again now with rising summer spikes as
young holiday makers and alcohol fuelled antics break social distancing.

UK locked down late and was well into exponential growth because somehow
the experts advising the government had not noticed that the doubling
time was not the 5 or 6 days of their models but 3 days in reality. A
week delay of lockdown made the problem in the UK and resulting
fatalities 4x higher than what they could have been.

Even so it was a lockdown that was essential in London but not really
needed in most of the rest of the country. UK is incredibly centralised
the entire country is run for the benefit of London and the South East.

UK test and trace is predictably a disaster run by dodgy subcontractors
who have previous for defrauding the Ministry of Justice! The UK\'s DIY
\"world beating\" phone app is a steaming heap of dingoes kidneys.

R is often circular reasoning.

I don\'t particularly like R because it is not easily derived from
measurable data and is subject to ad hoc modelling assumptions. The case
doubling time (data smoothed as a 7 day rolling average) is much better.

Only when we find the herd immunity threshold will we truly have an
accurate value for R0. The slop in the UK values is huge right now.

Curiously they are seeing rising infection rates but much lower hospital
admissions (thought to be because most of them are fit young people).
The same anomaly was observed in Germany when the ski set were infected
right at the outset (German efficiency also played a part).

Curious and relatively good. The places seeing a secondary bump in new
cases are mostly not showing a corresponding bump in deaths. Far
southern hemisphere might be an exception to that pattern, but all the
data is suspect now.




--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard