Dutch scientists contradict scientists on settled science...

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-08-04 16:10, John Larkin wrote:

On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 11:39:51 -0700 (PDT), bulegoge@columbus.rr.com
wrote:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html


The
Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research after

the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with fake
scientists.




I was working with a biggish laser company, IC lithography. One guy
said \"Yeah, those Koreans are tough, but nothing like as tough as
those Dutch guys.\"

No-lockdown Sweden isn\'t doing as bad as some nearby countries.
We\'ll really find out in winter.

The Dutch are famously stubborn and full of unsolicited advice. This
has stood them in good stead for a thousand years or so.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 1:47:21 PM UTC+10, Phil Hobbs wrote:

On 2020-08-04 16:10, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 11:39:51 -0700 (PDT), bule...@columbus.rr.com
wrote:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html


The
Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research after

the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with fake
scientists.




I was working with a biggish laser company, IC lithography. One guy
said \"Yeah, those Koreans are tough, but nothing like as tough as
those Dutch guys.\"

No-lockdown Sweden isn\'t doing as bad as some nearby countries.
We\'ll really find out in winter.

The Dutch are famously stubborn and full of unsolicited advice. This
has stood them in good stead for a thousand years or so.

The Netherlands has only been a country since 1581. Generalisation that go back further tend to go back to the Batavians - who were around two thousand years ago. When I lived in Netherlands, I lived in Nijmegen, which has two thousand years of documented history going back to the time when there was a big Roman military establishment there. Maastricht argued about the \"documented\" bit - they had a monastery during the early post-Roman period, which kept on writing, when Nijmegen didn\'t - but the archeologists are pretty confident that Nijmegen continued to exist, even if the stuff that got written there then hasn\'t lasted.

Dutch science is fine, and has been for as long as there has been science worth talking about. The first secretary of the UK Royal Society was Henry Oldenburg - a German, originally from Bremen - and a lot of his correspondence was with Dutch scientists and philosophers (including Baruch Spinoza, Christiaan Huygens and his father, Constantijn Huygens, and Antoni van Leeuwenhoek).

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[bitrex]

On 8/4/2020 5:30 PM, Joerg wrote:

On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote:
On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html



The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research
after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with
fake scientists.

The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly protect
the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are mostly irrelevant
provided that you keep your distance from others. Even that social
distancing varies quite remarkably with country 2m in the UK (except
where it is now 1m) and 6\' (aka 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world.

Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average member
of the public wear these masks it may just result in them having a false
sense of security. The Dutch approach of only wearing them on public
transport and in confined spaces may actually be more effective.

People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often for
them to be effective as protection against infection. We are obliged now
to call them \"face coverings\" because \"mask\" is a four letter word!

Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour Belgium
where I used to live. Similar countries with similar population density
and demographics but a radically different approaches. Belgium\'s hard
lockdown has not served them at all well - it is unclear why at present.

The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to tell...


These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California where
I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered cases:

http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg

Doesn\'t look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out of
which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since about a
month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas such as Lake
Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation home or go
gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day.

New cases August-1: One.
New cases August-2: Two.

This is a conservative-minded county where people wear masks where it
makes sense and not where some bureaucrat says. In the supermarket we
do, of course. While walking the dogs? Heck no.

True patriots only want a policeman up someone else\'s ass, not their
own. Not big surprise.

Brewpubs will happily serve you a beer if you order some \"token food\"
(mandated, for whatever stupid reason).

It seems we must be doing something right in El Dorado County. Yes,
Gerhard, this may be another planet after all and I like it

 

[bitrex]

On 8/4/2020 6:51 PM, John Larkin wrote:

On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 14:30:31 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote:
On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html


The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research
after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with
fake scientists.

The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly protect
the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are mostly irrelevant
provided that you keep your distance from others. Even that social
distancing varies quite remarkably with country 2m in the UK (except
where it is now 1m) and 6\' (aka 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world.

Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average member
of the public wear these masks it may just result in them having a false
sense of security. The Dutch approach of only wearing them on public
transport and in confined spaces may actually be more effective.

People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often for
them to be effective as protection against infection. We are obliged now
to call them \"face coverings\" because \"mask\" is a four letter word!

Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour Belgium
where I used to live. Similar countries with similar population density
and demographics but a radically different approaches. Belgium\'s hard
lockdown has not served them at all well - it is unclear why at present.

The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to tell...


These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California where
I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered cases:

http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg

Doesn\'t look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out of
which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since about a
month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas such as Lake
Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation home or go
gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day.

New cases August-1: One.
New cases August-2: Two.

This is a conservative-minded county where people wear masks where it
makes sense and not where some bureaucrat says. In the supermarket we
do, of course. While walking the dogs? Heck no.

Brewpubs will happily serve you a beer if you order some \"token food\"
(mandated, for whatever stupid reason).

It seems we must be doing something right in El Dorado County. Yes,
Gerhard, this may be another planet after all and I like it

Worldometer reports one death total so far in your county, looks like
about July 1. Cases peaked mid-June and are way, way below peak now.

Most everywhere you look, you see a bell-shaped blip of cases about a
month or so wide FWHM. That\'s the chracteristic waveform of this
thing. Mitigations may just change the shape, stretch out the tail or
create secondary peaks of similar shape. A few countries are showing
secondary case peaks bigger than the first peak, but looks like about
the same waveform.

Maybe someone can answer my question: in places without lockdowns and
with low reported case totals, why do cases peak and fall off, to
close to zero? Where is the exponential growth?

When I ask this question, people either ignore it or think they should
insult me instead of answering.

It\'s pretty simple: the virus will continue to infect until it has
nowhere to go, either because it has infected everyone (with a toll of
death and serious injury that is fairly predictable), it is cut off from
a supply of new hosts (distancing and masks), or everyone it comes in
contact with is immune (immunizations, which as yet do not exist for
COVID and in the best case are still months to years away).

If it looks like something else is happening, see previous paragraph

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-08-04 16:10, John Larkin wrote:

On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 11:39:51 -0700 (PDT), bulegoge@columbus.rr.com
wrote:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html


The


Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research after

the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with fake
scientists.




I was working with a biggish laser company, IC lithography. One guy
said \"Yeah, those Koreans are tough, but nothing like as tough as
those Dutch guys.\"

No-lockdown Sweden isn\'t doing as bad as some nearby countries. We\'ll
really find out in winter.

The Dutch are famously stubborn and full of unsolicited advice. This
has stood them in good stead for a thousand years or so.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

[Martin Brown]

On 05/08/2020 11:50, Phil Hobbs wrote:

On 2020-08-04 16:10, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 11:39:51 -0700 (PDT), bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html


The
Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research after

the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with fake
scientists.


I was working with a biggish laser company, IC lithography. One guy
said \"Yeah, those Koreans are tough, but nothing like as tough as
those Dutch guys.\"

No-lockdown Sweden isn\'t doing as bad as some nearby countries. We\'ll
really find out in winter.

Sweden\'s population density outside of a handful of major cities is low
enough that they can probably get away without a national hard lockdown.
Their people are all fairly sensible and reasonably fit.

Even so they still lost control of Covid-19 in the care home setting
with predictable results.

The Dutch are famously stubborn and full of unsolicited advice.  This
has stood them in good stead for a thousand years or so.

Pragmatic is the word you are looking for.

They have a reputation in adjoining Belgium for being avid caravanners
and for taking a sack of their own Dutch potatoes on holiday with them.
They were a very serious sea faring naval power in the past.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-08-04 16:47, Martin Brown wrote:

On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html


The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research
after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with
fake scientists.

The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly protect
the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are mostly irrelevant
provided that you keep your distance from others. Even that social
distancing varies quite remarkably with country 2m in the UK (except
where it is now 1m) and 6\' (aka 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world.

Um, 6 feet is 182.88 cm.

Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average member
of the public wear these masks it may just result in them having a false
sense of security. The Dutch approach of only wearing them on public
transport and in confined spaces may actually be more effective.

The N95 ones are too hard to breathe through unless you\'re just sitting
there, and the T-shirt cloth ones don\'t do a lot about the sizes of
particles that other people might breathe in. (They\'ll catch big
loogeys though.)

People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often for
them to be effective as protection against infection. We are obliged now
to call them \"face coverings\" because \"mask\" is a four letter word!

Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour Belgium
where I used to live. Similar countries with similar population density
and demographics but a radically different approaches. Belgium\'s hard
lockdown has not served them at all well - it is unclear why at present.

The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to tell...

I wear a mask when I\'m in the store or someplace like that, but
primarily to be polite to the people who work there.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs


--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-08-05 07:03, Martin Brown wrote:

On 05/08/2020 11:50, Phil Hobbs wrote:


The Dutch are famously stubborn and full of unsolicited advice.  This
has stood them in good stead for a thousand years or so.

Pragmatic is the word you are looking for.

No, I\'m looking for \"stubborn and full of unsolicited advice.\" Good
advice, bad advice, no apparent pattern there except that you usually
didn\'t ask for it. There\'s a reason for the expression \"Dutch uncle\".
<https://https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_uncle>.

They have a reputation in adjoining Belgium for being avid caravanners
and for taking a sack of their own Dutch potatoes on holiday with them.
They were a very serious sea faring naval power in the past.

Sure thing, till they got their asses handed to them by the English.
I\'ve got a lot of time for Dutchmen actually, as long as they\'re being
stubborn about the right things, which they often are.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

[Gerhard Hoffmann]

Am 05.08.20 um 13:28 schrieb Phil Hobbs:

I wear a mask when I\'m in the store or someplace like that, but
primarily to be polite to the people who work there.

Me too, but primarily for the same reason I have a 10 dB pad
on the input of my spectrum analyzer normally.

> Cheers

Gerhard


I should have done that before I shot my SNA-33. :-(

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-08-05 07:49, Gerhard Hoffmann wrote:

Am 05.08.20 um 13:28 schrieb Phil Hobbs:

I wear a mask when I\'m in the store or someplace like that, but
primarily to be polite to the people who work there.

Me too, but primarily for the same reason I have a 10 dB pad
on the input of my spectrum analyzer normally.

Cheers

Gerhard


I should have done that before I shot my SNA-33.  :-(

Well, that experience is widely applicable, anyway.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

[legg]

On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 13:49:28 +0200, Gerhard Hoffmann <dk4xp@arcor.de>
wrote:

Am 05.08.20 um 13:28 schrieb Phil Hobbs:

I wear a mask when I\'m in the store or someplace like that, but
primarily to be polite to the people who work there.

Me too, but primarily for the same reason I have a 10 dB pad
on the input of my spectrum analyzer normally.

Mine has a TVS, also.

Turning power on/off on the line side of LISN has
killed many an SA.

RL

 

[Martin Brown]

On 05/08/2020 00:11, John Larkin wrote:

On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 15:58:20 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

Here is the dashboard from county health, lock for yourself:

http://eldoradocounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b5315baf88c34be996a16c6f0b8fdcfb

[...]

That is the exact page that Worldometer links to for county-level
data.

They usually link to a local health agency for regional data.

Even in your county, cases are clustered in two regions, one near
Sacramento and one near Lake Tahoe.

That isn\'t at all surprising. Population density matters.

Transmission is very strongly influenced by the frequency with which you
meet other people. In very sparsely populated wilderness areas you may
effectively be living in self isolation for most of the time apart from
when you visit major population centres, shops, bars and restaurants.

If the proportion of infected people is p

The chances of not catching it each day scales as (1-p)^N

where N is the number of people you meet in a day.

Or to put it another way your chances of catching it on any given day
are roughly 50% when you meet N\' = ln(2)/p people in a day.

For N <= 1/p it has an approximate closed form 5Np/(5+3(N-1)p)
(max error 2% when n=1/p)

Where I live N is under 10 if I go out locally and 0 or 1 if I don\'t.
p is 0.00004 or 40ppm locally so I would need to attend a football match
with over 17k other people to have an evens chance of catching it.

If I go shopping N is about a hundred and if I go into London it is over
a thousand (that latter contact group was sufficient to get several
colleagues infected in a day trip to London just prior to lockdown).

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[server]

On Wed, 05 Aug 2020 11:50:44 GMT, Jan Panteltje
<pNaOnStPeAlMtje@yahoo.com> wrote:

On a sunny day (Wed, 5 Aug 2020 12:03:37 +0100) it happened Martin Brown
\'\'\'newspam\'\'\'@nonad.co.uk> wrote in <rge3ma$106f$1@gioia.aioe.org>:

On 05/08/2020 11:50, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-08-04 16:10, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 11:39:51 -0700 (PDT), bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote:


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html


The
Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research after

the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with fake
scientists.


I was working with a biggish laser company, IC lithography. One guy
said \"Yeah, those Koreans are tough, but nothing like as tough as
those Dutch guys.\"

No-lockdown Sweden isn\'t doing as bad as some nearby countries. We\'ll
really find out in winter.

Sweden\'s population density outside of a handful of major cities is low
enough that they can probably get away without a national hard lockdown.
Their people are all fairly sensible and reasonably fit.

Even so they still lost control of Covid-19 in the care home setting
with predictable results.

The Dutch are famously stubborn and full of unsolicited advice.  This
has stood them in good stead for a thousand years or so.

Pragmatic is the word you are looking for.

They have a reputation in adjoining Belgium for being avid caravanners
and for taking a sack of their own Dutch potatoes on holiday with them.
They were a very serious sea faring naval power in the past.

Dutch ASML is a world leader on semiconductor photolithography.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ec4oha12ii8flh8/TEM2_in_scanner.png?raw=1



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[server]

On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 13:49:10 +0100, Martin Brown
<\'\'\'newspam\'\'\'@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

On 05/08/2020 00:11, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 15:58:20 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

Here is the dashboard from county health, lock for yourself:

http://eldoradocounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b5315baf88c34be996a16c6f0b8fdcfb

[...]

That is the exact page that Worldometer links to for county-level
data.

They usually link to a local health agency for regional data.

Even in your county, cases are clustered in two regions, one near
Sacramento and one near Lake Tahoe.

That isn\'t at all surprising. Population density matters.

Which is one more reason why universal lockdowns don\'t make sense.

But not the whole story. Case counts vary wildly, even in places with
high population density.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Ricketty C]

On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 12:41:44 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 13:49:10 +0100, Martin Brown
\'\'\'newspam\'\'\'@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

On 05/08/2020 00:11, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 15:58:20 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

Here is the dashboard from county health, lock for yourself:

http://eldoradocounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b5315baf88c34be996a16c6f0b8fdcfb

[...]

That is the exact page that Worldometer links to for county-level
data.

They usually link to a local health agency for regional data.

Even in your county, cases are clustered in two regions, one near
Sacramento and one near Lake Tahoe.

That isn\'t at all surprising. Population density matters.

Which is one more reason why universal lockdowns don\'t make sense.

But not the whole story. Case counts vary wildly, even in places with
high population density.

Of course. There have been no lock downs in the US, so it\'s a moot point. The measures we have taken in the US work when we don\'t compromise them by cutting the corners off.

The idea that one county doesn\'t need to limit meetings and gatherings or skip distancing and masks because they currently don\'t have a higher rate of infection, completely misses the point. You can\'t treat this disease as a closed loop control system. That will guarantee a level of infection that is the worst case scenario, a very drawn out course of the disease, plenty of deaths and infirmities as well as an extended impact on the economy.

Do you like to pull off the bandage slowly so it pulls out one hair at a time?

Some people are just masochists. Most of us aren\'t.

Had we stayed the course in full force, we would have been done with this disease by now. Done! We would be seeing new infection counts in the 100\'s across the entire country, not 10\'s of thousands. But we have too many in this country who literally are incapable of understanding and unwilling to listen to those who do understand. Dunning-Kruger at it\'s finest.

Too bad their cognitive defect impacts us all.

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Joerg]

On 2020-08-04 15:51, John Larkin wrote:

On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 14:30:31 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote:
On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html


The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research
after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with
fake scientists.

The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly protect
the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are mostly irrelevant
provided that you keep your distance from others. Even that social
distancing varies quite remarkably with country 2m in the UK (except
where it is now 1m) and 6\' (aka 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world.

Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average member
of the public wear these masks it may just result in them having a false
sense of security. The Dutch approach of only wearing them on public
transport and in confined spaces may actually be more effective.

People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often for
them to be effective as protection against infection. We are obliged now
to call them \"face coverings\" because \"mask\" is a four letter word!

Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour Belgium
where I used to live. Similar countries with similar population density
and demographics but a radically different approaches. Belgium\'s hard
lockdown has not served them at all well - it is unclear why at present.

The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to tell...


These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California where
I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered cases:

http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg

Doesn\'t look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out of
which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since about a
month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas such as Lake
Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation home or go
gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day.

New cases August-1: One.
New cases August-2: Two.

This is a conservative-minded county where people wear masks where it
makes sense and not where some bureaucrat says. In the supermarket we
do, of course. While walking the dogs? Heck no.

Brewpubs will happily serve you a beer if you order some \"token food\"
(mandated, for whatever stupid reason).

It seems we must be doing something right in El Dorado County. Yes,
Gerhard, this may be another planet after all and I like it

Worldometer reports one death total so far in your county, looks like
about July 1. Cases peaked mid-June and are way, way below peak now.

Partly that\'s because many idiot governors decided that protesting with
looting, screaming, zero distancing and almost no mask is a \"civil
right\" while religious services are not. That had to result in a peak.

Monday again we had two new cases. I think for our county the virus is
pretty much done yet they keep us shut down (with some staunch
resistance, of course).

Most everywhere you look, you see a bell-shaped blip of cases about a
month or so wide FWHM. That\'s the chracteristic waveform of this
thing. Mitigations may just change the shape, stretch out the tail or
create secondary peaks of similar shape. A few countries are showing
secondary case peaks bigger than the first peak, but looks like about
the same waveform.

Maybe someone can answer my question: in places without lockdowns and
with low reported case totals, why do cases peak and fall off, to
close to zero? Where is the exponential growth?

I can\'t really answer that but part of the reason may be the overall
health of the respective population. If you look at countries that did
well without shutting down or with little in restrictions their people
are mostly much less overweight, have less cardiovascular issues and are
often very fit. In the US, ahem, well, we all know.

People who are fit can often shake such a virus without much fuss. I
know a couple where the whole family had hardcore telltale symptoms in
February, became very sick but just a few days later came out of it.
Those people don\'t get tested, they just cure it out and then go on with
life. This family is very athletic.

When I ask this question, people either ignore it or think they should
insult me instead of answering.

There are some people with whom discussions aren\'t really worthwhile
because they instantly fly into tantrums and cheap ad hominem attacks.

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/

 

[Ricketty C]

On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 1:51:50 PM UTC-4, Joerg wrote:

On 2020-08-04 15:51, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 14:30:31 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

It seems we must be doing something right in El Dorado County. Yes,
Gerhard, this may be another planet after all and I like it

Worldometer reports one death total so far in your county, looks like
about July 1. Cases peaked mid-June and are way, way below peak now.


Partly that\'s because many idiot governors decided that protesting with
looting, screaming, zero distancing and almost no mask is a \"civil
right\" while religious services are not. That had to result in a peak.

I see your problem now. You literally have no understanding of the important issues in how a pandemic spreads.

Monday again we had two new cases. I think for our county the virus is
pretty much done yet they keep us shut down (with some staunch
resistance, of course).

Yes! This absolutely confirms it. You fail to understand even the most simple principles of this disease and how it spreads. As long as the disease is rampaging somewhere in this country, no place is \"safe\". Yes, if you open up all the restaurants, bars, churches, whore houses and everywhere else people congregate, you won\'t see much happen for a few weeks... but just as it happened in Florida, Texas, Arizona and many other states, gradually behaviors will change and the disease will come back with a vengeance.

There is no \"pretty much done\" anywhere for this virus. If you start practicing poor behaviors and allowing the disease to spread, IT WILL SPREAD!

Larkin is a \"special\" case with his well documented thinking failures. But do you really think that if you go back to living like you did before the pandemic you won\'t see infection rates take off in your county?

Most everywhere you look, you see a bell-shaped blip of cases about a
month or so wide FWHM. That\'s the chracteristic waveform of this
thing. Mitigations may just change the shape, stretch out the tail or
create secondary peaks of similar shape. A few countries are showing
secondary case peaks bigger than the first peak, but looks like about
the same waveform.

Maybe someone can answer my question: in places without lockdowns and
with low reported case totals, why do cases peak and fall off, to
close to zero? Where is the exponential growth?


I can\'t really answer that but part of the reason may be the overall
health of the respective population. If you look at countries that did
well without shutting down or with little in restrictions their people
are mostly much less overweight, have less cardiovascular issues and are
often very fit. In the US, ahem, well, we all know.

Ok, I see you are drinking Larkin\'s Kool Aid. The locations that saw the disease rise and fall enacted the same sort of measures you seem to think can now be relaxed. That\'s the simple answer to the question.

Larkin tries to draw a dichotomy of \"lock down\" or no \"lock down\". No place in the US had a \"lock down\". So the question is irrelevant.

People who are fit can often shake such a virus without much fuss. I
know a couple where the whole family had hardcore telltale symptoms in
February, became very sick but just a few days later came out of it.
Those people don\'t get tested, they just cure it out and then go on with
life. This family is very athletic.

Interesting how you use \"weasel\" words like \"often\" rather than making a blanket statement.

How do you know that family had COVID-19? They could have easily contracted a flu bug like I did in February. This is why anecdotal evidence is BS, but then you seem to live and die by those sorts of stories, so that says a lot about your thinking.

When I ask this question, people either ignore it or think they should
insult me instead of answering.


There are some people with whom discussions aren\'t really worthwhile
because they instantly fly into tantrums and cheap ad hominem attacks.

When they do it is mostly because of the failure on other\'s part to actually \"think\". It\'s very frustrating to try to discuss something when the other person chooses to reject or ignore the facts.

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[John Larkin]

On Wed, 05 Aug 2020 10:51:52 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com>
wrote:

On 2020-08-04 15:51, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 14:30:31 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote:
On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html


The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research
after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with
fake scientists.

The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly protect
the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are mostly irrelevant
provided that you keep your distance from others. Even that social
distancing varies quite remarkably with country 2m in the UK (except
where it is now 1m) and 6\' (aka 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world.

Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average member
of the public wear these masks it may just result in them having a false
sense of security. The Dutch approach of only wearing them on public
transport and in confined spaces may actually be more effective.

People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often for
them to be effective as protection against infection. We are obliged now
to call them \"face coverings\" because \"mask\" is a four letter word!

Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour Belgium
where I used to live. Similar countries with similar population density
and demographics but a radically different approaches. Belgium\'s hard
lockdown has not served them at all well - it is unclear why at present.

The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to tell...


These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California where
I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered cases:

http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg

Doesn\'t look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out of
which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since about a
month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas such as Lake
Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation home or go
gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day.

New cases August-1: One.
New cases August-2: Two.

This is a conservative-minded county where people wear masks where it
makes sense and not where some bureaucrat says. In the supermarket we
do, of course. While walking the dogs? Heck no.

Brewpubs will happily serve you a beer if you order some \"token food\"
(mandated, for whatever stupid reason).

It seems we must be doing something right in El Dorado County. Yes,
Gerhard, this may be another planet after all and I like it

Worldometer reports one death total so far in your county, looks like
about July 1. Cases peaked mid-June and are way, way below peak now.


Partly that\'s because many idiot governors decided that protesting with
looting, screaming, zero distancing and almost no mask is a \"civil
right\" while religious services are not. That had to result in a peak.

I\'m in Nutcase City, where half the houses have BLM banners in the
windows, so I\'m not in touch with many real people around the USA.

I\'d guess that a lot of quiet people in flyover country are getting
annoyed at the hysteria of the mainstream press, and the annoyance
(not to mention unemployment) will become votes in November. What\'s
your impression, where you are?

Monday again we had two new cases. I think for our county the virus is
pretty much done yet they keep us shut down (with some staunch
resistance, of course).


Most everywhere you look, you see a bell-shaped blip of cases about a
month or so wide FWHM. That\'s the chracteristic waveform of this
thing. Mitigations may just change the shape, stretch out the tail or
create secondary peaks of similar shape. A few countries are showing
secondary case peaks bigger than the first peak, but looks like about
the same waveform.

Maybe someone can answer my question: in places without lockdowns and
with low reported case totals, why do cases peak and fall off, to
close to zero? Where is the exponential growth?


I can\'t really answer that but part of the reason may be the overall
health of the respective population. If you look at countries that did
well without shutting down or with little in restrictions their people
are mostly much less overweight, have less cardiovascular issues and are
often very fit. In the US, ahem, well, we all know.

SF has a lot of young, fit people. That might have helped to keep our
deaths down. It is kind of a mystery.

People who are fit can often shake such a virus without much fuss. I
know a couple where the whole family had hardcore telltale symptoms in
February, became very sick but just a few days later came out of it.
Those people don\'t get tested, they just cure it out and then go on with
life. This family is very athletic.

Mo and I are pretty sure we had it, in April. She works with a lot of
kids (nasty little drippy Petri dishes) and their parents, probably
got it and infected me. It wasn\'t real bad, but kind of wiped us out
for a few months. I\'m just now getting perky again.

When I ask this question, people either ignore it or think they should
insult me instead of answering.


There are some people with whom discussions aren\'t really worthwhile
because they instantly fly into tantrums and cheap ad hominem attacks.

Right. Ignore them.

 

[John Larkin]

On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 08:03:27 -0400, Phil Hobbs
<pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> wrote:

on the input of my spectrum analyzer normally.

Sampling heads, too.

 

[Joerg]

On 2020-08-05 12:00, John Larkin wrote:

On Wed, 05 Aug 2020 10:51:52 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2020-08-04 15:51, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 14:30:31 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote:
On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html


The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research
after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with
fake scientists.

The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly protect
the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are mostly irrelevant
provided that you keep your distance from others. Even that social
distancing varies quite remarkably with country 2m in the UK (except
where it is now 1m) and 6\' (aka 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world.

Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average member
of the public wear these masks it may just result in them having a false
sense of security. The Dutch approach of only wearing them on public
transport and in confined spaces may actually be more effective.

People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often for
them to be effective as protection against infection. We are obliged now
to call them \"face coverings\" because \"mask\" is a four letter word!

Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour Belgium
where I used to live. Similar countries with similar population density
and demographics but a radically different approaches. Belgium\'s hard
lockdown has not served them at all well - it is unclear why at present.

The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to tell...


These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California where
I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered cases:

http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg

Doesn\'t look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out of
which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since about a
month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas such as Lake
Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation home or go
gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day.

New cases August-1: One.
New cases August-2: Two.

This is a conservative-minded county where people wear masks where it
makes sense and not where some bureaucrat says. In the supermarket we
do, of course. While walking the dogs? Heck no.

Brewpubs will happily serve you a beer if you order some \"token food\"
(mandated, for whatever stupid reason).

It seems we must be doing something right in El Dorado County. Yes,
Gerhard, this may be another planet after all and I like it

Worldometer reports one death total so far in your county, looks like
about July 1. Cases peaked mid-June and are way, way below peak now.


Partly that\'s because many idiot governors decided that protesting with
looting, screaming, zero distancing and almost no mask is a \"civil
right\" while religious services are not. That had to result in a peak.

I\'m in Nutcase City, where half the houses have BLM banners in the
windows, so I\'m not in touch with many real people around the USA.

I\'d guess that a lot of quiet people in flyover country are getting
annoyed at the hysteria of the mainstream press, and the annoyance
(not to mention unemployment) will become votes in November. What\'s
your impression, where you are?

People here are very p....d about the governor shutting down places even
in counties such as ours where the is no virus problem and never really
was. I know how most of them will vote in November but it makes no
difference in California. Just hoping that we won\'t fall into a
socialist abyss as a country ...

Monday again we had two new cases. I think for our county the virus is
pretty much done yet they keep us shut down (with some staunch
resistance, of course).


Most everywhere you look, you see a bell-shaped blip of cases about a
month or so wide FWHM. That\'s the chracteristic waveform of this
thing. Mitigations may just change the shape, stretch out the tail or
create secondary peaks of similar shape. A few countries are showing
secondary case peaks bigger than the first peak, but looks like about
the same waveform.

Maybe someone can answer my question: in places without lockdowns and
with low reported case totals, why do cases peak and fall off, to
close to zero? Where is the exponential growth?


I can\'t really answer that but part of the reason may be the overall
health of the respective population. If you look at countries that did
well without shutting down or with little in restrictions their people
are mostly much less overweight, have less cardiovascular issues and are
often very fit. In the US, ahem, well, we all know.

SF has a lot of young, fit people. That might have helped to keep our
deaths down. It is kind of a mystery.

It does help. It also helps to be mindful about less fit and elderly
people, take precautions, wear a mask when seeing them. Because us fit
guys might have the virus at some point and never really feel it.

The absolute worst is what Cuomo did, send COVID patients into (!)
nursing homes. Unbelievable.

People who are fit can often shake such a virus without much fuss. I
know a couple where the whole family had hardcore telltale symptoms in
February, became very sick but just a few days later came out of it.
Those people don\'t get tested, they just cure it out and then go on with
life. This family is very athletic.

Mo and I are pretty sure we had it, in April. She works with a lot of
kids (nasty little drippy Petri dishes) and their parents, probably
got it and infected me. It wasn\'t real bad, but kind of wiped us out
for a few months. I\'m just now getting perky again.

For a few months? Wow, yeah, that could have been it.

When I ask this question, people either ignore it or think they should
insult me instead of answering.


There are some people with whom discussions aren\'t really worthwhile
because they instantly fly into tantrums and cheap ad hominem attacks.

Right. Ignore them.

Yup

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/