Dutch scientists contradict scientists on settled science...

[server]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html


The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with fake scientists.

 

[John Larkin]

On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 11:39:51 -0700 (PDT), bulegoge@columbus.rr.com
wrote:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html


The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with fake scientists.

I was working with a biggish laser company, IC lithography. One guy
said \"Yeah, those Koreans are tough, but nothing like as tough as
those Dutch guys.\"

No-lockdown Sweden isn\'t doing as bad as some nearby countries. We\'ll
really find out in winter.

 

[Gerhard Hoffmann]

Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin:

No-lockdown Sweden isn\'t doing as bad as some nearby countries. We\'ll
really find out in winter.

Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet.

Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times
more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75%
in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot.

Sweden\'s Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other,
but not to Sweden.

Dream on.

Gerhard

 

[Martin Brown]

On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html

The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research
after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with
fake scientists.

The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly protect
the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are mostly irrelevant
provided that you keep your distance from others. Even that social
distancing varies quite remarkably with country 2m in the UK (except
where it is now 1m) and 6\' (aka 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world.

Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average member
of the public wear these masks it may just result in them having a false
sense of security. The Dutch approach of only wearing them on public
transport and in confined spaces may actually be more effective.

People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often for
them to be effective as protection against infection. We are obliged now
to call them \"face coverings\" because \"mask\" is a four letter word!

Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour Belgium
where I used to live. Similar countries with similar population density
and demographics but a radically different approaches. Belgium\'s hard
lockdown has not served them at all well - it is unclear why at present.

The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to tell...

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[Joerg]

On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote:

On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html


The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research
after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with
fake scientists.

The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly protect
the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are mostly irrelevant
provided that you keep your distance from others. Even that social
distancing varies quite remarkably with country 2m in the UK (except
where it is now 1m) and 6\' (aka 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world.

Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average member
of the public wear these masks it may just result in them having a false
sense of security. The Dutch approach of only wearing them on public
transport and in confined spaces may actually be more effective.

People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often for
them to be effective as protection against infection. We are obliged now
to call them \"face coverings\" because \"mask\" is a four letter word!

Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour Belgium
where I used to live. Similar countries with similar population density
and demographics but a radically different approaches. Belgium\'s hard
lockdown has not served them at all well - it is unclear why at present.

The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to tell...

These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California where
I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered cases:

http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg

Doesn\'t look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out of
which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since about a
month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas such as Lake
Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation home or go
gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day.

New cases August-1: One.
New cases August-2: Two.

This is a conservative-minded county where people wear masks where it
makes sense and not where some bureaucrat says. In the supermarket we
do, of course. While walking the dogs? Heck no.

Brewpubs will happily serve you a beer if you order some \"token food\"
(mandated, for whatever stupid reason).

It seems we must be doing something right in El Dorado County. Yes,
Gerhard, this may be another planet after all and I like it

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/

 

[John Larkin]

On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 22:41:09 +0200, Gerhard Hoffmann <dk4xp@arcor.de>
wrote:

Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin:


No-lockdown Sweden isn\'t doing as bad as some nearby countries. We\'ll
really find out in winter.

Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet.

Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times
more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75%
in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot.

Sweden\'s Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other,
but not to Sweden.

Dream on.

Gerhard

Sweden is 569 PPM dead so far. Below Belguim, Spain, Italy, UK. So so
far, not an obviously catastrophic policy. Some european countries may
be starting ominous secondary bumps. There could well be a winter
effect coming too.

Sweden\'s 7-day-averaged daily death rate is now zero. Zero is good. UK
is 64.

If Sweden is not locked down, why has the death rate fallen to zero?
Why has it fallen at all, with total cases only 0.8% of the
population?

In the USA, the states that had no mandatory lockdown have had about
1/3 the PPM deaths of the US average. That\'s not causal, but it\'s
interesting.

California, locked down hard, is at about 50% of the US PPM death
count, mostly in the south.

This border closing thing is mostly politics and xenophobia.

 

[Joerg]

On 2020-08-04 14:35, John Larkin wrote:

On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 22:41:09 +0200, Gerhard Hoffmann <dk4xp@arcor.de
wrote:

Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin:


No-lockdown Sweden isn\'t doing as bad as some nearby countries. We\'ll
really find out in winter.

Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet.

Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times
more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75%
in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot.

Sweden\'s Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other,
but not to Sweden.

Dream on.

Gerhard

Sweden is 569 PPM dead so far. Below Belguim, Spain, Italy, UK. So so
far, not an obviously catastrophic policy. Some european countries may
be starting ominous secondary bumps. There could well be a winter
effect coming too.

Sweden\'s 7-day-averaged daily death rate is now zero. Zero is good. UK
is 64.

If Sweden is not locked down, why has the death rate fallen to zero?
Why has it fallen at all, with total cases only 0.8% of the
population?

In the USA, the states that had no mandatory lockdown have had about
1/3 the PPM deaths of the US average. That\'s not causal, but it\'s
interesting.

California, locked down hard, is at about 50% of the US PPM death
count, mostly in the south.

El Dorado County is at 0.2 PPM. Yet this is a conservative county where
people stand their ground:

https://www.abc10.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/el-dorado-county-restaurant-reopening-despite-stay-at-home-order/103-8ccaf7c5-3d5d-44ab-9e4a-fc726eb6d06f

This border closing thing is mostly politics and xenophobia.

France and Italy are suffering tremendously because of it. Hardly any
tourists.

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/

 

[Ricketty C]

On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 5:30:32 PM UTC-4, Joerg wrote:

On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote:
On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html


The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research
after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with
fake scientists.

The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly protect
the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are mostly irrelevant
provided that you keep your distance from others. Even that social
distancing varies quite remarkably with country 2m in the UK (except
where it is now 1m) and 6\' (aka 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world.

Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average member
of the public wear these masks it may just result in them having a false
sense of security. The Dutch approach of only wearing them on public
transport and in confined spaces may actually be more effective.

People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often for
them to be effective as protection against infection. We are obliged now
to call them \"face coverings\" because \"mask\" is a four letter word!

Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour Belgium
where I used to live. Similar countries with similar population density
and demographics but a radically different approaches. Belgium\'s hard
lockdown has not served them at all well - it is unclear why at present..

The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to tell...


These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California where
I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered cases:

http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg

Doesn\'t look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out of
which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since about a
month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas such as Lake
Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation home or go
gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day.

New cases August-1: One.
New cases August-2: Two.

You seem to be a bit like Larkin, cherry picking your data. geodacenter.github.io may not be the easiest site to read, but they are claiming the average number of cases to be around 15 to 20 per day. Are you omitting some days of much higher numbers? The days you cite are weekend days when many jurisdictions report much lower numbers on a weekly cycle.

This is a conservative-minded county where people wear masks where it
makes sense and not where some bureaucrat says. In the supermarket we
do, of course. While walking the dogs? Heck no.

Sure, unless you may run into other people.

Masks, distance, limiting numbers of people in one gathering, washing your hands all make sense. None of them or even all of them together guarantee you won\'t be infected. They are imposed to reduce the spread of the disease so as to eventually eliminate it. There is no reason to not take each and every practical action to limit the spread of this disease.

Brewpubs will happily serve you a beer if you order some \"token food\"
(mandated, for whatever stupid reason).

Do you really not understand the intent? If you were a child, I would try to teach you by asking you to explain it to me. Can you or are you unteachable?

It seems we must be doing something right in El Dorado County. Yes,
Gerhard, this may be another planet after all and I like it

You mean something different now than in early July when your daily new infections were around 20 or in June when the numbers were rapidly increasing? So what did change? Maybe the actions taken were working? Are you suggesting they can be ditched now that the *new* case numbers are lower? Yes, we can turn California into Florida... oh, wait, it already is, just not your little acre.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[John Larkin]

On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 14:51:39 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com>
wrote:

On 2020-08-04 14:35, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 22:41:09 +0200, Gerhard Hoffmann <dk4xp@arcor.de
wrote:

Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin:


No-lockdown Sweden isn\'t doing as bad as some nearby countries. We\'ll
really find out in winter.

Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet.

Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times
more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75%
in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot.

Sweden\'s Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other,
but not to Sweden.

Dream on.

Gerhard

Sweden is 569 PPM dead so far. Below Belguim, Spain, Italy, UK. So so
far, not an obviously catastrophic policy. Some european countries may
be starting ominous secondary bumps. There could well be a winter
effect coming too.

Sweden\'s 7-day-averaged daily death rate is now zero. Zero is good. UK
is 64.

If Sweden is not locked down, why has the death rate fallen to zero?
Why has it fallen at all, with total cases only 0.8% of the
population?

In the USA, the states that had no mandatory lockdown have had about
1/3 the PPM deaths of the US average. That\'s not causal, but it\'s
interesting.

California, locked down hard, is at about 50% of the US PPM death
count, mostly in the south.


El Dorado County is at 0.2 PPM. Yet this is a conservative county where
people stand their ground:

https://www.abc10.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/el-dorado-county-restaurant-reopening-despite-stay-at-home-order/103-8ccaf7c5-3d5d-44ab-9e4a-fc726eb6d06f

We have 11 counties with zero deaths. And a bunch more in the single
digits.

This border closing thing is mostly politics and xenophobia.


France and Italy are suffering tremendously because of it. Hardly any
tourists.

 

[Ricketty C]

On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 5:35:48 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:

On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 22:41:09 +0200, Gerhard Hoffmann <dk4xp@arcor.de
wrote:

Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin:


No-lockdown Sweden isn\'t doing as bad as some nearby countries. We\'ll
really find out in winter.

Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet.

Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times
more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75%
in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot.

Sweden\'s Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other,
but not to Sweden.

Dream on.

Gerhard

Sweden is 569 PPM dead so far. Below Belguim, Spain, Italy, UK. So so
far, not an obviously catastrophic policy. Some european countries may
be starting ominous secondary bumps. There could well be a winter
effect coming too.

Sweden\'s 7-day-averaged daily death rate is now zero. Zero is good. UK
is 64.

I don\'t think that is correct. The numbers at worldometers seems to be truncating rather than rounding. Wikipedia is reporting 9 deaths on last Friday alone. I\'m not sure what form of arithmetic can round 9/7 down to zero.

If Sweden is not locked down, why has the death rate fallen to zero?
Why has it fallen at all, with total cases only 0.8% of the
population?

Very good question. Do you have any theories? Could it be due to the beginning of winter there?

In the USA, the states that had no mandatory lockdown have had about
1/3 the PPM deaths of the US average. That\'s not causal, but it\'s
interesting.

It is neither. You cherry pick data left and right. You use total numbers to compare this thing, you use daily numbers to compare that thing. You would be a horrible scientist because you don\'t understand how to analyze data so as to compare apples with apples.

Why do you ignore what is happening in Texas, Florida and your home state of California??? Are you afraid of the facts?

California, locked down hard, is at about 50% of the US PPM death
count, mostly in the south.

Are you talking about the aggregate or the daily numbers? The aggregate for the country is of little use in a comparison since it mixes all manner of conditions and actions. If you want to compare actions and results, it seems to make much more sense to look at daily new infections.


> This border closing thing is mostly politics and xenophobia.

Yes, with present infection levels it doesn\'t make a lot of sense unless there is a wide discrepancy in infection levels. Even then the real issue is how many infections would be prevented. However, it doesn\'t take a rocket scientist to look at a map of how the disease spread and see that it could have been very effective to isolate the hot spots early in the infection. Within the US there is no longer much point in closing borders.

It makes a lot of sense for other countries who largely have their infections under control to isolate the countries where the disease is running rampant... like here in the US. Thank you, DeSantis. Thank you, Kemp.

--

Rick C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Ricketty C]

On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 5:51:38 PM UTC-4, Joerg wrote:

On 2020-08-04 14:35, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 22:41:09 +0200, Gerhard Hoffmann <dk4xp@arcor.de
wrote:

Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin:


No-lockdown Sweden isn\'t doing as bad as some nearby countries. We\'ll
really find out in winter.

Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet.

Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times
more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75%
in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot.

Sweden\'s Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other,
but not to Sweden.

Dream on.

Gerhard

Sweden is 569 PPM dead so far. Below Belguim, Spain, Italy, UK. So so
far, not an obviously catastrophic policy. Some european countries may
be starting ominous secondary bumps. There could well be a winter
effect coming too.

Sweden\'s 7-day-averaged daily death rate is now zero. Zero is good. UK
is 64.

If Sweden is not locked down, why has the death rate fallen to zero?
Why has it fallen at all, with total cases only 0.8% of the
population?

In the USA, the states that had no mandatory lockdown have had about
1/3 the PPM deaths of the US average. That\'s not causal, but it\'s
interesting.

California, locked down hard, is at about 50% of the US PPM death
count, mostly in the south.


El Dorado County is at 0.2 PPM. Yet this is a conservative county where
people stand their ground:

https://www.abc10.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/el-dorado-county-restaurant-reopening-despite-stay-at-home-order/103-8ccaf7c5-3d5d-44ab-9e4a-fc726eb6d06f

Well, good for them. Stand your ground to take any action, no matter how stupid. That\'s what America is all about, no?

This border closing thing is mostly politics and xenophobia.


France and Italy are suffering tremendously because of it. Hardly any
tourists.

Yeah, I bet they are sympathizing with El Dorado county right now. I guess they are hurting because of the huge loss from tourism.

--

Rick C.

-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[John Larkin]

On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 14:30:31 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com>
wrote:

On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote:
On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html


The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research
after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with
fake scientists.

The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly protect
the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are mostly irrelevant
provided that you keep your distance from others. Even that social
distancing varies quite remarkably with country 2m in the UK (except
where it is now 1m) and 6\' (aka 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world.

Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average member
of the public wear these masks it may just result in them having a false
sense of security. The Dutch approach of only wearing them on public
transport and in confined spaces may actually be more effective.

People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often for
them to be effective as protection against infection. We are obliged now
to call them \"face coverings\" because \"mask\" is a four letter word!

Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour Belgium
where I used to live. Similar countries with similar population density
and demographics but a radically different approaches. Belgium\'s hard
lockdown has not served them at all well - it is unclear why at present.

The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to tell...


These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California where
I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered cases:

http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg

Doesn\'t look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out of
which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since about a
month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas such as Lake
Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation home or go
gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day.

New cases August-1: One.
New cases August-2: Two.

This is a conservative-minded county where people wear masks where it
makes sense and not where some bureaucrat says. In the supermarket we
do, of course. While walking the dogs? Heck no.

Brewpubs will happily serve you a beer if you order some \"token food\"
(mandated, for whatever stupid reason).

It seems we must be doing something right in El Dorado County. Yes,
Gerhard, this may be another planet after all and I like it

Worldometer reports one death total so far in your county, looks like
about July 1. Cases peaked mid-June and are way, way below peak now.

Most everywhere you look, you see a bell-shaped blip of cases about a
month or so wide FWHM. That\'s the chracteristic waveform of this
thing. Mitigations may just change the shape, stretch out the tail or
create secondary peaks of similar shape. A few countries are showing
secondary case peaks bigger than the first peak, but looks like about
the same waveform.

Maybe someone can answer my question: in places without lockdowns and
with low reported case totals, why do cases peak and fall off, to
close to zero? Where is the exponential growth?

When I ask this question, people either ignore it or think they should
insult me instead of answering.

 

[Gerhard Hoffmann]

Am 04.08.20 um 23:51 schrieb Joerg:

>> This border closing thing is mostly politics and xenophobia.

Come on, these Nordic countries are more or less one culture, they are
all mostly Vikings.

France and Italy are suffering tremendously because of it. Hardly any
tourists.

You say that as if it was a bad thing. The Balearic islands of Spain
were not hit very hard and had no problem to attract their usual
Ballermann customers. The usual instant arseholes. Just add alcohol.
And the infrastructure there is specialized in adding alc.

The authorities shut it down again a few days after opening, it was
the exemplary swap market. And now, since we have free 3-hour tests
at the airports in .de, the results are shocking.

My customer partner for this electron spin resonance project I\'m
currently working on is in Italy for holiday. But I don\'t fear for him.
He\'s a medical doctor who can read TDR plots.

Meanwhile, I have canceled my Denmark-Sweden-Baltic motorcycle tour
and moved it to next year (clockwise around the Baltic sea).
But I\'ll do some trips to France. It begins 25 Km from my place.

Gerhard

 

[Joerg]

On 2020-08-04 15:11, Ricketty C wrote:

On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 5:30:32 PM UTC-4, Joerg wrote:
On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote:
On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html




The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research
after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country
with fake scientists.

The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly
protect the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are
mostly irrelevant provided that you keep your distance from
others. Even that social distancing varies quite remarkably with
country 2m in the UK (except where it is now 1m) and 6\' (aka
1.5m) in most of the rest of the world.

Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average
member of the public wear these masks it may just result in them
having a false sense of security. The Dutch approach of only
wearing them on public transport and in confined spaces may
actually be more effective.

People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often
for them to be effective as protection against infection. We are
obliged now to call them \"face coverings\" because \"mask\" is a
four letter word!

Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour
Belgium where I used to live. Similar countries with similar
population density and demographics but a radically different
approaches. Belgium\'s hard lockdown has not served them at all
well - it is unclear why at present.

The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to
tell...


These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California
where I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered
cases:

http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg

Doesn\'t look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out
of which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since
about a month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas
such as Lake Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation
home or go gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day.

New cases August-1: One. New cases August-2: Two.

You seem to be a bit like Larkin, cherry picking your data.

No. I quoted the official county health office data. It would be better
for you to fact-check first instead of accusing and then sitting there
with egg in the face, like right now.

geodacenter.github.io may not be the easiest site to read, but they
are claiming the average number of cases to be around 15 to 20 per
day.

Obviously wrong.

... Are you omitting some days of much higher numbers? The days
you cite are weekend days when many jurisdictions report much lower
numbers on a weekly cycle.

Here is the dashboard from county health, lock for yourself:

http://eldoradocounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b5315baf88c34be996a16c6f0b8fdcfb

[...]

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/

 

[Ricketty C]

On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 6:58:22 PM UTC-4, Joerg wrote:

On 2020-08-04 15:11, Ricketty C wrote:
On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 5:30:32 PM UTC-4, Joerg wrote:
On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote:
On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html




The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research
after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country
with fake scientists.

The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly
protect the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are
mostly irrelevant provided that you keep your distance from
others. Even that social distancing varies quite remarkably with
country 2m in the UK (except where it is now 1m) and 6\' (aka
1.5m) in most of the rest of the world.

Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average
member of the public wear these masks it may just result in them
having a false sense of security. The Dutch approach of only
wearing them on public transport and in confined spaces may
actually be more effective.

People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often
for them to be effective as protection against infection. We are
obliged now to call them \"face coverings\" because \"mask\" is a
four letter word!

Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour
Belgium where I used to live. Similar countries with similar
population density and demographics but a radically different
approaches. Belgium\'s hard lockdown has not served them at all
well - it is unclear why at present.

The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to
tell...


These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California
where I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered
cases:

http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg

Doesn\'t look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out
of which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since
about a month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas
such as Lake Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation
home or go gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day.

New cases August-1: One. New cases August-2: Two.

You seem to be a bit like Larkin, cherry picking your data.


No. I quoted the official county health office data. It would be better
for you to fact-check first instead of accusing and then sitting there
with egg in the face, like right now.

You don\'t even understand what I wrote. Do you know what cherry picking is??? It is using only the data that supports a view, ignoring data that does not.

The fact that data of the last two days is low means little if other data is higher. Every day of the last week which you didn\'t cite is higher, as high as 8 in one day. There is no reason to think your two days of reported data are representative of anything.

That\'s cherry picking. BTW, you might want to use a napkin on that dribble before it gets on your clothes. That yoke can stain.

geodacenter.github.io may not be the easiest site to read, but they
are claiming the average number of cases to be around 15 to 20 per
day.


Obviously wrong.

As are your two days of reporting numbers that vary over weeks. I would expect you to understand noise and filtering.

... Are you omitting some days of much higher numbers? The days
you cite are weekend days when many jurisdictions report much lower
numbers on a weekly cycle.


Here is the dashboard from county health, lock for yourself:

http://eldoradocounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b5315baf88c34be996a16c6f0b8fdcfb

I\'ve already seen it, that\'s how I know you are cherry picking, just like Larkin.

Do you report results to your customers like this? \"The circuit noise was below the threshold the last time we ran it. Should we care if it failed the other nine times we tested it?\"

Why do you insist on presenting BS and expecting people to swallow it?

--

Rick C.

-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[John Larkin]

On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 15:58:20 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com>
wrote:

On 2020-08-04 15:11, Ricketty C wrote:
On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 5:30:32 PM UTC-4, Joerg wrote:
On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote:
On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html




The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research
after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country
with fake scientists.

The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly
protect the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are
mostly irrelevant provided that you keep your distance from
others. Even that social distancing varies quite remarkably with
country 2m in the UK (except where it is now 1m) and 6\' (aka
1.5m) in most of the rest of the world.

Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average
member of the public wear these masks it may just result in them
having a false sense of security. The Dutch approach of only
wearing them on public transport and in confined spaces may
actually be more effective.

People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often
for them to be effective as protection against infection. We are
obliged now to call them \"face coverings\" because \"mask\" is a
four letter word!

Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour
Belgium where I used to live. Similar countries with similar
population density and demographics but a radically different
approaches. Belgium\'s hard lockdown has not served them at all
well - it is unclear why at present.

The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to
tell...


These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California
where I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered
cases:

http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg

Doesn\'t look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out
of which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since
about a month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas
such as Lake Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation
home or go gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day.

New cases August-1: One. New cases August-2: Two.

You seem to be a bit like Larkin, cherry picking your data.


No. I quoted the official county health office data. It would be better
for you to fact-check first instead of accusing and then sitting there
with egg in the face, like right now.


geodacenter.github.io may not be the easiest site to read, but they
are claiming the average number of cases to be around 15 to 20 per
day.


Obviously wrong.


... Are you omitting some days of much higher numbers? The days
you cite are weekend days when many jurisdictions report much lower
numbers on a weekly cycle.


Here is the dashboard from county health, lock for yourself:

http://eldoradocounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b5315baf88c34be996a16c6f0b8fdcfb

[...]

That is the exact page that Worldometer links to for county-level
data.

They usually link to a local health agency for regional data.

Even in your county, cases are clustered in two regions, one near
Sacramento and one near Lake Tahoe.

 

[Ricketty C]

On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 7:11:47 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:

On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 15:58:20 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2020-08-04 15:11, Ricketty C wrote:
On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 5:30:32 PM UTC-4, Joerg wrote:
On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote:
On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html




The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research
after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country
with fake scientists.

The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly
protect the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are
mostly irrelevant provided that you keep your distance from
others. Even that social distancing varies quite remarkably with
country 2m in the UK (except where it is now 1m) and 6\' (aka
1.5m) in most of the rest of the world.

Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average
member of the public wear these masks it may just result in them
having a false sense of security. The Dutch approach of only
wearing them on public transport and in confined spaces may
actually be more effective.

People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often
for them to be effective as protection against infection. We are
obliged now to call them \"face coverings\" because \"mask\" is a
four letter word!

Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour
Belgium where I used to live. Similar countries with similar
population density and demographics but a radically different
approaches. Belgium\'s hard lockdown has not served them at all
well - it is unclear why at present.

The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to
tell...


These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California
where I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered
cases:

http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg

Doesn\'t look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out
of which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since
about a month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas
such as Lake Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation
home or go gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day.

New cases August-1: One. New cases August-2: Two.

You seem to be a bit like Larkin, cherry picking your data.


No. I quoted the official county health office data. It would be better
for you to fact-check first instead of accusing and then sitting there
with egg in the face, like right now.


geodacenter.github.io may not be the easiest site to read, but they
are claiming the average number of cases to be around 15 to 20 per
day.


Obviously wrong.


... Are you omitting some days of much higher numbers? The days
you cite are weekend days when many jurisdictions report much lower
numbers on a weekly cycle.


Here is the dashboard from county health, lock for yourself:

http://eldoradocounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b5315baf88c34be996a16c6f0b8fdcfb

[...]

That is the exact page that Worldometer links to for county-level
data.

They usually link to a local health agency for regional data.

Even in your county, cases are clustered in two regions, one near
Sacramento and one near Lake Tahoe.

Larkin is amazingly astute. He has figured out that the infections occur where people are! and where they travel... Who would have thought?

https://edcgov.us/Government/Redistricting/publishingimages/density_11x17.jpg


Make sure you keep those bars open around Tahoe. Otherwise you will never keep up with the infection rates in the rest of California. Open bars attracts the disease riddled tourists and their money.

--

Rick C.

+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[legg]

On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 14:51:39 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com>
wrote:

<snip>

El Dorado County is at 0.2 PPM. Yet this is a conservative county where
people stand their ground:

Didn\'t you say the county had 200,000 residents?

0.2ppm would mean that 0.04 people have died of covid19.

One person is 5ppm.

RL

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 8:51:47 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:

On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 14:30:31 -0700, Joerg <ne...@analogconsultants.com
wrote:
On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote:
On 04/08/2020 19:39, bule...@columbus.rr.com wrote:

<snip>

Worldometer reports one death total so far in your county, looks like
about July 1. Cases peaked mid-June and are way, way below peak now.

Most everywhere you look, you see a bell-shaped blip of cases about a
month or so wide FWHM. That\'s the characteristic waveform of this
thing.

It isn\'t. It just looks bell-shaped to you because you haven\'t got a clue about the mechanisms driving the rise and fall of the number of infections.

Mitigations may just change the shape, stretch out the tail or
create secondary peaks of similar shape.

Wrong.

> A few countries are showing secondary case peaks bigger than the first peak, but looks like about the same waveform.

To anybody who refuses to think about what\'s actually going on.

Maybe someone can answer my question: in places without lockdowns and
with low reported case totals, why do cases peak and fall off, to
close to zero? Where is the exponential growth?

You can have exponential shrinkage as well as exponential growth. If people get frightened enough to cut the average number of new people a single infected person manages to infect below one, you get exponential shrinkage. If contact tracers tell enough potentially infected people to stay at home for 14-days from the potentially infectious encounter, they are much less likely to infect anybody else if they do develop the disease.

When I ask this question, people either ignore it or think they should
insult me instead of answering.

On the contrary, it gets answered more or less non-stop, and you ignore the answers. The insults all involve pointing out that you persist in asking the question and persist in ignoring the answers. It\'s called incorrigible ignorance, and seems to reflect the fact that you can\'t accommodate any point of view about what\'s going on that involves your business losing money.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[whit3rd]

On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 3:23:13 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

We have 11 counties with zero deaths. And a bunch more in the single
digits.

Total? Per month? All that takes, is
eleven counties with no suitable hospital faciilities, it doesn\'t indicate
mild-to-none cases of the pandemic.

Alpine county, CA, has about 1100 population; Los Angeles couny, over 10 million.