COVID-19 cases in Arizona dropped 75% after mask mandates began, report says...

[server]

On Thu, 22 Oct 2020 05:38:18 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
<usenet@revmaps.no-ip.org> wrote:

On 2020-10-21, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Wed, 21 Oct 2020 05:27:15 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
usenet@revmaps.no-ip.org> wrote:

On 2020-10-20, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 05:08:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/10/09/covid-19-cases-az-spiked-151-after-statewide-stay-home-order-and-dropped-75-following-local-mask-man/5911813002/

Are there still ignorant fools out there who think Trump, and some equally stupid GOP governors, didn\'t contribute directly to the mayhem and expense of the pandemic by flaunting disregard for the recommendations of public health experts?

NEJM is right, these people need to go.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/10/20/depression-deaths-double-cancelled-surgeries-lockdown-report/

The lockdowns will probably kill many times as many people as the
virus.

Why are you making that meaningless comparison.

Because all lives matter.

Liar: it\'s fairly obvious that you do not believe that.

Using smoothed Worldometer data, many countries are having distinct
second peaks in case rates, with the first peak around April and the
second peak about now. The 2nd/1st peak ratios are


Netherlands 7.4 increasing, will likely hit 10

Belguim 6.8 increasing

France 5.9 increasing

Australia 1.55 pretty much over

Spain 1.33 soft bump, increasing

USA 0.88 mildly increasing

The US is #10 on the list of per-capita deaths. Mexico may take that
spot.

Lies?

Who did the lockdowns right? China? UK?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/half-europes-small-businesses-face-bankruptcy-virus-cases-spike

How do the epidemiology experts here explain this? Probably masks,
masks, masks.

Care to discuss what might be happening? Or maybe you can make up a
few more simple insults to avoid thinking.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Ricketty C]

On Thursday, October 22, 2020 at 11:00:08 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Thu, 22 Oct 2020 05:38:18 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
usenet@revmaps.no-ip.org> wrote:

On 2020-10-21, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Wed, 21 Oct 2020 05:27:15 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
usenet@revmaps.no-ip.org> wrote:

On 2020-10-20, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 05:08:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/10/09/covid-19-cases-az-spiked-151-after-statewide-stay-home-order-and-dropped-75-following-local-mask-man/5911813002/

Are there still ignorant fools out there who think Trump, and some equally stupid GOP governors, didn\'t contribute directly to the mayhem and expense of the pandemic by flaunting disregard for the recommendations of public health experts?

NEJM is right, these people need to go.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/10/20/depression-deaths-double-cancelled-surgeries-lockdown-report/

The lockdowns will probably kill many times as many people as the
virus.

Why are you making that meaningless comparison.

Because all lives matter.

Liar: it\'s fairly obvious that you do not believe that.


Using smoothed Worldometer data, many countries are having distinct
second peaks in case rates, with the first peak around April and the
second peak about now. The 2nd/1st peak ratios are


Netherlands 7.4 increasing, will likely hit 10

Belguim 6.8 increasing

France 5.9 increasing

Australia 1.55 pretty much over

Spain 1.33 soft bump, increasing

USA 0.88 mildly increasing

The US is #10 on the list of per-capita deaths. Mexico may take that
spot.

Lies?

Who did the lockdowns right? China? UK?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/half-europes-small-businesses-face-bankruptcy-virus-cases-spike

How do the epidemiology experts here explain this? Probably masks,
masks, masks.

Care to discuss what might be happening? Or maybe you can make up a
few more simple insults to avoid thinking.

Explain what??? Try actually talking about something that can be discussed and people might discuss it.

As to the rise in infections, often accompanied by a rise in deaths (such as here in the US) it is most likely caused by people growing weary of the precautions without much indication they work. When infection rates are down people want to relax and have more fun without fully understanding the direct connection between behavior and infection rates.

Apparently this is one thing Fauci was very much aware of early in the pandemic having studied this most of his life. He didn\'t share the gory details because it seems best to not tell people they are not smart enough to understand the connection.

The general public simply won\'t respond to a public health emergency for the weeks and months required when government takes halfway measures. Had we responded appropriately from day one we could now be in a full economic recovery with a large team of trackers identifying everyone who has been exposed. That\'s what has happened in China and they are virtually disease free..

Or maybe they created this pandemic after they had developed the vaccine and allowed a few thousand in Hunan to die before inoculating the public just to make it look good. Or maybe they still have not inoculated the public and just the leaders... who cares how many die? Oh, wait, that\'s here in the US.

--

Rick C.

--+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[whit3rd]

On Thursday, October 22, 2020 at 8:00:08 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Using smoothed Worldometer data, many countries are having distinct
second peaks in case rates, with the first peak around April and the
second peak about now. The 2nd/1st peak ratios are

.... meaningless numbers omitted

Why would you compute such ratios? They aren\'t useful
parts of any thought process.

> Who did the lockdowns right? China? UK?

South Korea, maybe China, but... not all regions have the same
character, so one cannot copy-what-works in any simple sense.
Listening to the Donald and his gagged CDC doesn\'t help.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/half-europes-small-businesses-face-bankruptcy-virus-cases-spike

How do the epidemiology experts here explain this? Probably masks,
masks, masks.

What the heck is \"this\"?? Why would epidemiology apply? Why do you obsess on masks?

Bankruptcy is not epidemic, nor necessarily closure, it\'s just another player (a court)
coming into the negotiation of debts.

 

[Flyguy]

On Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 5:08:55 AM UTC-7, Fred Bloggs wrote:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/10/09/covid-19-cases-az-spiked-151-after-statewide-stay-home-order-and-dropped-75-following-local-mask-man/5911813002/

Are there still ignorant fools out there who think Trump, and some equally stupid GOP governors, didn\'t contribute directly to the mayhem and expense of the pandemic by flaunting disregard for the recommendations of public health experts?

NEJM is right, these people need to go.

Hey, the \"experts\" originally recommended NOT using masks!

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, October 23, 2020 at 3:50:31 PM UTC+11, Flyguy wrote:

On Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 5:08:55 AM UTC-7, Fred Bloggs wrote:
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/10/09/covid-19-cases-az-spiked-151-after-statewide-stay-home-order-and-dropped-75-following-local-mask-man/5911813002/

Are there still ignorant fools out there who think Trump, and some equally stupid GOP governors, didn\'t contribute directly to the mayhem and expense of the pandemic by flaunting disregard for the recommendations of public health experts?

NEJM is right, these people need to go.

Hey, the \"experts\" originally recommended NOT using masks!

Not exactly correct. When there weren\'t enough to go around, the experts recommended reserving them for the medical staff who really needed them.

As usual, this was way too complicated for Flyguy to process, so he has simplified it.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[none]

In article <c1b8b1bb-c814-4111-9461-e192f4492b4bn@googlegroups.com>,
whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:

On Thursday, October 15, 2020 at 7:29:22 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

I wonder if the Netherlands will peak at 10x or more times their April
case peak. They are at 6x now and maybe on the linear part of the
slope, which is usually about halfway to the top.

Why would you care about Netherlands in particular? What is
important about \'10x\' as a threshold?
There is no evidence for, nor importance ascribed to, \'linear part of the slope\',
which apparently intends to mean inflection point of a sigmoid.

Lets put on our mathematical hat.
It is where the second derivative goes from positive to negative.
Any plausible model is the sum of exponentials: sum(i : exp(lambda_i*t) )
where each cause/region has its own lambda.
(A simplistic model has only one lambda.)
All lambda\'s can be influenced by measures, and all will be influenced
differently.
OAbviously we want to get all lambda\'s less than zero.
If the second derivative is zero that means that the causes and regions
with a lambda less than zero are becoming dominant over those with a lambda
greater than zero. Reason to celebrate: the epidemic is dying out.
Not everywhere, but at least in respects where it matters most.
It possible that there remains a few slowly growing situations remain.

I care about the Netherlands, because I live here.
And I care about the USA, because USA lives matter.

Really, the waveform keeps recurring, all over the world.

That\'s about human machinery implementing a negative feedback, with
some delays, and progressive improvements (or regressive overloads
and breakdowns) in health care. It says more about policies and
institutional infrastructure than about the disease per se.

That \'waveform\' is from detecting a hot spot and diverting resources
to it. There\'s a variety of such a \'waveform\' specific to each
population and infrastructure (sometimes national, sometimes local).

Human response is quirky, and those \'bumps\' tell us about quirks, not disease.

That is about right. Anyhow referring to the wave as Gaussian is nonsensical.
The Gaussian (better de Moivre) curve is exp(-x^2) . That implies an initial
growth rate faster than exponential that can not be reconciled with
any model, or the facts.

Groetjes Albert
--
This is the first day of the end of your life.
It may not kill you, but it does make your weaker.
If you can\'t beat them, too bad.
albert@spe&ar&c.xs4all.nl &=n http://home.hccnet.nl/a.w.m.van.der.horst

 

[whit3rd]

On Friday, November 13, 2020 at 12:16:23 PM UTC-8, none albert wrote:

In article <c1b8b1bb-c814-4111...@googlegroups.com>,
whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com> wrote:
On Thursday, October 15, 2020 at 7:29:22 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

I wonder if the Netherlands will peak at 10x or more times their April
case peak. They are at 6x now and maybe on the linear part of the
slope, which is usually about halfway to the top.

There is no evidence for, nor importance ascribed to, \'linear part of the slope\',
which apparently intends to mean inflection point of a sigmoid.

Lets put on our mathematical hat.
It is where the second derivative goes from positive to negative.
Any plausible model is the sum of exponentials: sum(i : exp(lambda_i*t) )
where each cause/region has its own lambda.
(A simplistic model has only one lambda.)
All lambda\'s can be influenced by measures, and all will be influenced
differently.
OAbviously we want to get all lambda\'s less than zero.

Alas, our intent is to make the disease decline; the
inflection is not an important milestone, only a decrease in deaths is
of importance. If one were to relax because of an apparent inflection,
one would defeat the true purpose of a health measure. A large number of
random elements can make apparent short linear sections, we cannot
be sure of any future trend on that evidence alone, and while the curve is
still rising, is NOT a good time to congratulate ourselves.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Saturday, November 14, 2020 at 7:16:23 AM UTC+11, none albert wrote:

In article <c1b8b1bb-c814-4111...@googlegroups.com>,
whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com> wrote:
On Thursday, October 15, 2020 at 7:29:22 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

I wonder if the Netherlands will peak at 10x or more times their April
case peak. They are at 6x now and maybe on the linear part of the
slope, which is usually about halfway to the top.

Why would you care about Netherlands in particular? What is
important about \'10x\' as a threshold?
There is no evidence for, nor importance ascribed to, \'linear part of the slope\',
which apparently intends to mean inflection point of a sigmoid.

Lets put on our mathematical hat.

There\'s no point in putting on the mathematical hat until you have a mathematical model for the infection process.

We do have that. An infected person has chance of infecting an uninfected person, if they get close enough to them.

Sadly, people differ in how close they get and how often. Current statistics say 70% of infected people don\'t infect anybody else, and 20% of them infect 80% of the people who get infected. Since 2% infect 20% of the people who get infected, there\'s a lot of variation in behavior, and we known that when people are frightened by the infection numbers, most of them chance their behavior, so they become less likely to get infected, and correspondingly less likely to infect other people.

Most of the variation we see in infection rates and infection numbers reflects these changes of behavior, and I don\'t know of any mathematical model that is set up to reflect that.

There are models that reflect the fact that there is a range of behavior, and that drops the herd immunity level because the super-spreaders are more likely to get infected - and either immune or dead - early in the epidemic. I don\'t know of any that allow fro changes of behavior during the epidemic..

It is where the second derivative goes from positive to negative.
Any plausible model is the sum of exponentials: sum(i : exp(lambda_i*t) )
where each cause/region has its own lambda.

(A simplistic model has only one lambda.)

That is the simplest model. Allowing for a range of lambdas, is the next step up, and allowing the various lambdas to change with time is an additional complication, but one that stops the process being purely exponential or a simple sum of exponentials.

All lambda\'s can be influenced by measures, and all will be influenced
differently.

And recognising that destroys your claim that \"Any plausible model is the sum of exponentials: sum(i : exp(lambda_i*t) ) \"

Obviously we want to get all lambda\'s less than zero.
If the second derivative is zero that means that the causes and regions
with a lambda less than zero are becoming dominant over those with a lambda
greater than zero.

It might. If the various components that add up to quasi-exponential sum aren\'t actually exponential, you really can\'t be all that confident.

> Reason to celebrate: the epidemic is dying out.

True.

Not everywhere, but at least in respects where it matters most.
It possible that a few slowly growing situations remain.

Almost certain, if there isn\'t enough contact tracing going on to keep track of the actual infections. The US has been providing large scale examples for about hafl a year now.

I care about the Netherlands, because I live here.
And I care about the USA, because USA lives matter.

But not enough for the US administration to do anything that has a chance of eliminating the epidemic. Rutte hasn\'t done enugh either.

Really, the waveform keeps recurring, all over the world.

That\'s about human machinery implementing a negative feedback, with
some delays, and progressive improvements (or regressive overloads
and breakdowns) in health care. It says more about policies and
institutional infrastructure than about the disease per se.

That \'waveform\' is from detecting a hot spot and diverting resources
to it. There\'s a variety of such a \'waveform\' specific to each
population and infrastructure (sometimes national, sometimes local).

Human response is quirky, and those \'bumps\' tell us about quirks, not disease.

That is about right. Anyhow referring to the wave as Gaussian is nonsensical.
The Gaussian (better de Moivre) curve is exp(-x^2) . That implies an initial
growth rate faster than exponential that can not be reconciled with
any model, or the facts.

There are better reasons for being rude about it, but that one is perfectly adequate on its own.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney