COVID-19 cases in Arizona dropped 75% after mask mandates began, report says...

[Fred Bloggs]

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/10/09/covid-19-cases-az-spiked-151-after-statewide-stay-home-order-and-dropped-75-following-local-mask-man/5911813002/

Are there still ignorant fools out there who think Trump, and some equally stupid GOP governors, didn\'t contribute directly to the mayhem and expense of the pandemic by flaunting disregard for the recommendations of public health experts?

NEJM is right, these people need to go.

 

[server]

On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 05:08:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
<bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/10/09/covid-19-cases-az-spiked-151-after-statewide-stay-home-order-and-dropped-75-following-local-mask-man/5911813002/

Are there still ignorant fools out there who think Trump, and some equally stupid GOP governors, didn\'t contribute directly to the mayhem and expense of the pandemic by flaunting disregard for the recommendations of public health experts?

NEJM is right, these people need to go.

The case curve in Arizona looks like most others, a roughly gaussian
bump about six weeks FWHM. Of course people panic and do stuff as
cases climb, and take credit for the results, but that doesn\'t seem to
change the characteristic curve.

Isolation and masking do protect some people from exposure, which
makes them available to the virus for a long tail and a second spike.
Looks to me like the harder they locked down, the bigger the second
peak. That\'s logical.

Several european countries are having huge second spikes now. Arizona
may be growing one.

France\'s measured second case peak is now over 3x the first one and
still climbing. All people can say about the biology is masks, masks,
masks.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[legg]

On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 07:44:53 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:

On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 05:08:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/10/09/covid-19-cases-az-spiked-151-after-statewide-stay-home-order-and-dropped-75-following-local-mask-man/5911813002/

Are there still ignorant fools out there who think Trump, and some equally stupid GOP governors, didn\'t contribute directly to the mayhem and expense of the pandemic by flaunting disregard for the recommendations of public health experts?

NEJM is right, these people need to go.

The case curve in Arizona looks like most others, a roughly gaussian
bump about six weeks FWHM. Of course people panic and do stuff as
cases climb, and take credit for the results, but that doesn\'t seem to
change the characteristic curve.

\'do stuff\' either does stuff or it doesn\'t. Make up your mind.

Which bump do you prefer?

http://ve3ute.ca/query/201010_cases_daily_ppm_repor_group.jpg

RL

 

[Fred Bloggs]

On Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 10:45:11 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 05:08:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/10/09/covid-19-cases-az-spiked-151-after-statewide-stay-home-order-and-dropped-75-following-local-mask-man/5911813002/

Are there still ignorant fools out there who think Trump, and some equally stupid GOP governors, didn\'t contribute directly to the mayhem and expense of the pandemic by flaunting disregard for the recommendations of public health experts?

NEJM is right, these people need to go.
The case curve in Arizona looks like most others, a roughly gaussian
bump about six weeks FWHM. Of course people panic and do stuff as
cases climb, and take credit for the results, but that doesn\'t seem to
change the characteristic curve.

Isolation and masking do protect some people from exposure, which
makes them available to the virus for a long tail and a second spike.
Looks to me like the harder they locked down, the bigger the second
peak. That\'s logical.

Several european countries are having huge second spikes now. Arizona
may be growing one.

That\'s the nature of exponential growth. The simple calculus of d/dx exp(x) = exp(x) tells you that rates of change are in direct proportion to the size of infected population, explaining the much bigger spikes as the infected population increases.

France\'s measured second case peak is now over 3x the first one and
still climbing. All people can say about the biology is masks, masks,
masks.

Simplest is best. Total lockdown was never necessary, but masks and distancing was. If they had strictly adhered to this from the beginning, the virus would be a rarity by now.
Some lockdown like bars and crowded restaurants and sports venues packed to the max need to remain in place. People need to use common sense.
I don\'t know who\'s making all those automated video/temperature scanners we see all over the place but they have to be cleaning up. We need more of those everywhere.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[whit3rd]

On Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 7:45:11 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

The case curve in Arizona looks like most others, a roughly gaussian
bump about six weeks FWHM. Of course people panic and do stuff as
cases climb, and take credit for the results, but that doesn\'t seem to
change the characteristic curve.

Panic never happened in Arizona. People take credit where credit is due.
The \'curve\' is not characteristic, nor Gaussian.

Isolation and masking do protect some people from exposure, which
makes them available to the virus for a long tail and a second spike.
Looks to me like the harder they locked down, the bigger the second
peak. That\'s logical.

That\'s absurd. Try making a set of equations that fits the description above,
it won\'t work. Masking is not \"make available\" in any way, shape, or form.

As for the \'long tail\', you\'re talking about the duration of a pandemic, and
that long tail is likely to be dominated by (as yet unavailable) therapies and
vaccines. You can\'t predict any such thing by looking at the past (the curve).

 

[server]

On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 14:51:10 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 07:44:53 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:

On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 05:08:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/10/09/covid-19-cases-az-spiked-151-after-statewide-stay-home-order-and-dropped-75-following-local-mask-man/5911813002/

Are there still ignorant fools out there who think Trump, and some equally stupid GOP governors, didn\'t contribute directly to the mayhem and expense of the pandemic by flaunting disregard for the recommendations of public health experts?

NEJM is right, these people need to go.

The case curve in Arizona looks like most others, a roughly gaussian
bump about six weeks FWHM. Of course people panic and do stuff as
cases climb, and take credit for the results, but that doesn\'t seem to
change the characteristic curve.

\'do stuff\' either does stuff or it doesn\'t. Make up your mind.

Which bump do you prefer?

http://ve3ute.ca/query/201010_cases_daily_ppm_repor_group.jpg

RL

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherlands/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/

If the peaks are crushed by behavioral measures, we\'ll probably see
third peaks for the same reasons we got second peaks.


Do you care to discuss the dynamics, or fling insults?

Insults need less thinking.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[server]

On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 12:27:40 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
<bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

On Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 10:45:11 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 05:08:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/10/09/covid-19-cases-az-spiked-151-after-statewide-stay-home-order-and-dropped-75-following-local-mask-man/5911813002/

Are there still ignorant fools out there who think Trump, and some equally stupid GOP governors, didn\'t contribute directly to the mayhem and expense of the pandemic by flaunting disregard for the recommendations of public health experts?

NEJM is right, these people need to go.
The case curve in Arizona looks like most others, a roughly gaussian
bump about six weeks FWHM. Of course people panic and do stuff as
cases climb, and take credit for the results, but that doesn\'t seem to
change the characteristic curve.

Isolation and masking do protect some people from exposure, which
makes them available to the virus for a long tail and a second spike.
Looks to me like the harder they locked down, the bigger the second
peak. That\'s logical.

Several european countries are having huge second spikes now. Arizona
may be growing one.

That\'s the nature of exponential growth. The simple calculus of d/dx exp(x) = exp(x) tells you that rates of change are in direct proportion to the size of infected population, explaining the much bigger spikes as the infected population increases.


France\'s measured second case peak is now over 3x the first one and
still climbing. All people can say about the biology is masks, masks,
masks.

Simplest is best. Total lockdown was never necessary, but masks and distancing was. If they had strictly adhered to this from the beginning, the virus would be a rarity by now.

Adhered forever? Wuhan Patient Zero was a rarity, but seeded the
world. Rarity ain\'t good enough.

Some serious people are questioning whether masks help at all. The
original theory about big droplets settling on touchable surfaces
within 6\' of a sneeze is pretty much shot.

There were a bunch of political progressives intercepting people at
Safeway this morning. They looked at my American Flag mask and didn\'t
bother to perster me. OK, masks can be useful.

(A mask is mandatory to enter Safeway. I don\'t mask unless I have to.
Never outdoors.)

Some lockdown like bars and crowded restaurants and sports venues packed to the max need to remain in place. People need to use common sense.
I don\'t know who\'s making all those automated video/temperature scanners we see all over the place but they have to be cleaning up. We need more of those everywhere.

Nobody has explained to me what is the exit strategy of lockdowns. The
best argument is that all countries should lock down until a vaccine
is widely available. That doesn\'t seem to work.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Ricketty C]

On Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 4:05:40 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 14:51:10 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 07:44:53 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:

On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 05:08:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/10/09/covid-19-cases-az-spiked-151-after-statewide-stay-home-order-and-dropped-75-following-local-mask-man/5911813002/

Are there still ignorant fools out there who think Trump, and some equally stupid GOP governors, didn\'t contribute directly to the mayhem and expense of the pandemic by flaunting disregard for the recommendations of public health experts?

NEJM is right, these people need to go.

The case curve in Arizona looks like most others, a roughly gaussian
bump about six weeks FWHM. Of course people panic and do stuff as
cases climb, and take credit for the results, but that doesn\'t seem to
change the characteristic curve.

\'do stuff\' either does stuff or it doesn\'t. Make up your mind.

Which bump do you prefer?

http://ve3ute.ca/query/201010_cases_daily_ppm_repor_group.jpg

RL


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherlands/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/

If the peaks are crushed by behavioral measures, we\'ll probably see
third peaks for the same reasons we got second peaks.


Do you care to discuss the dynamics, or fling insults?

Insults need less thinking.

People would be happy to discuss the disease in a rational way but we are waiting for you to get rational about it.

You don\'t actually explain any of your thinking in anything like a rigorous manner. You just say things like, \"that doesn\'t seem to change the characteristic curve\" when there is no basis for say any curve is \"characteristic\" of the disease.

If your ideas are sound you should be able to predict the shape of future curves, but you don\'t bother to say anything that is useful or can be tested.

I do agree that because of the defective thinking by the general population and the lack of concern by the politicians we in the US are looking at continuing high rates of infection until Mr Burns pays for the liposuction.

--

Rick C.

-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[legg]

On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 13:05:23 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:

On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 14:51:10 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 07:44:53 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:

On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 05:08:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/10/09/covid-19-cases-az-spiked-151-after-statewide-stay-home-order-and-dropped-75-following-local-mask-man/5911813002/

Are there still ignorant fools out there who think Trump, and some equally stupid GOP governors, didn\'t contribute directly to the mayhem and expense of the pandemic by flaunting disregard for the recommendations of public health experts?

NEJM is right, these people need to go.

The case curve in Arizona looks like most others, a roughly gaussian
bump about six weeks FWHM. Of course people panic and do stuff as
cases climb, and take credit for the results, but that doesn\'t seem to
change the characteristic curve.

\'do stuff\' either does stuff or it doesn\'t. Make up your mind.

Which bump do you prefer?

http://ve3ute.ca/query/201010_cases_daily_ppm_repor_group.jpg

RL


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherlands/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/

If the peaks are crushed by behavioral measures, we\'ll probably see
third peaks for the same reasons we got second peaks.


Do you care to discuss the dynamics, or fling insults?

Insults need less thinking.

The problem with \'do stuff\' is that everyone is learning the
hard way. There\'s also no-one who\'s willing to state what the
acceptible goals are, in reducing (mitigating) the effects of
the spread of this viral infection.

What is the acceptible \'burn rate\', in terms of human lives?
What is affordable?
What are the relative effects of each specific reduction method?

Peaks occur prior to mitigation measures, organized or otherwise.
Rising rates reflect reductions in these measures, whether
controled or through simple fatigue.

Fatigue is more likely in disorganized response, less likely
with effective leadership.

RL

 

[whit3rd]

On Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 10:59:38 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 13:32:08 -0400, bitrex <us...@example.net> wrote:

Three possibilities:

Through some combination of social distancing/quarantine/contact tracing
the virus has no more hosts to infect in a population, and it dies out.

In that case, the population is ready to be reinfected.

The population was BORN ready to be infected. That case changes this situation
not at all. This is because the virus has become adapted to ... wait for it...
HUMANS as hosts. Just like every other viral pathogen since time immemorial.

> Fortunately, per-case death rates seem to be low in secondary peaks.

That\'s because we have better therapies now, not because of peaks of
secondary or other qualification. There\'s more to it than \'death\', there\'s
organ damage and long-term debilitation possibilities.

 

[whit3rd]

On Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 1:17:06 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Nobody has explained to me what is the exit strategy of lockdowns. The
best argument is that all countries should lock down until a vaccine
is widely available. That doesn\'t seem to work.

Everyone and his brother has an exit strategy for lockdowns. For California,
<https://covid19.ca.gov/safer-economy/>

There\'s no \'best argument\' such as you describe (that would be overly
simplistic and inflexible.
Vaccines DO seem to work; wide availability of such, for COVID-19,
is still sometime in the future. When, exactly, depends on testing
(and prudent persons will NOT listen to crackpots and political wonks
on the \'when\' issue; medical advice is worth paying for, and vaccine worth
a bit of waiting).

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, October 11, 2020 at 1:45:11 AM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 05:08:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/10/09/covid-19-cases-az-spiked-151-after-statewide-stay-home-order-and-dropped-75-following-local-mask-man/5911813002/

Are there still ignorant fools out there who think Trump, and some equally stupid GOP governors, didn\'t contribute directly to the mayhem and expense of the pandemic by flaunting disregard for the recommendations of public health experts?

NEJM is right, these people need to go.

The case curve in Arizona looks like most others, a roughly gaussian
bump about six weeks FWHM.

John Larkin\'s eyeball sees Gaussian curves everywhere. Since the process that creates the rising side of the curve - not enough people worrying about getting infected - is decidedly different from the process that creates the falling side - enough people being careful about not being infected, the curves aren\'t particularly symmetrical and they aren\'t remotely Gaussian. Since John sees Gaussian curves which aren\'t there, he isn\'t looking carefully enough to have an opinion worth posting.

> Of course people panic and do stuff as cases climb, and take credit for the results, but that doesn\'t seem to change the characteristic curve.

Since John always sees the same characteristic curve no matter what he looks at, this isn\'t a useful observation.

Isolation and masking do protect some people from exposure, which
makes them available to the virus for a long tail and a second spike.

Only if you don\'t do lock down contact tracing and isolation properly - which doesn\'t seem to be something that the American community can manage. Other countries have done, and are doing better.

> Looks to me like the harder they locked down, the bigger the second peak.. That\'s logical.

For the samples John Larkin can be bothered to look at. If he looked at the Taiwanese example, he see a different story.

> Several European countries are having huge second spikes now. Arizona may be growing one.

So what. Incompetence is easy to find.

> France\'s measured second case peak is now over 3x the first one and still climbing. All people can say about the biology is masks, masks, masks.

That\'s all John Larkin can hear, and it;s certauinly all that he can be bothered to udnerstand.

Places that take contact tracing seriously and go in for the precautionary isolation of people who might have got infected for 14 days after the potential infection (like Australia) don\'t have huge second peaks (unless somebody screws up) and can get rid of the \"second peak\" in month or so.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[server]

On Sun, 11 Oct 2020 09:30:08 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
<bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

On Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 4:17:06 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 12:27:40 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

On Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 10:45:11 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 05:08:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/10/09/covid-19-cases-az-spiked-151-after-statewide-stay-home-order-and-dropped-75-following-local-mask-man/5911813002/

Are there still ignorant fools out there who think Trump, and some equally stupid GOP governors, didn\'t contribute directly to the mayhem and expense of the pandemic by flaunting disregard for the recommendations of public health experts?

NEJM is right, these people need to go.
The case curve in Arizona looks like most others, a roughly gaussian
bump about six weeks FWHM. Of course people panic and do stuff as
cases climb, and take credit for the results, but that doesn\'t seem to
change the characteristic curve.

Isolation and masking do protect some people from exposure, which
makes them available to the virus for a long tail and a second spike.
Looks to me like the harder they locked down, the bigger the second
peak. That\'s logical.

Several european countries are having huge second spikes now. Arizona
may be growing one.

That\'s the nature of exponential growth. The simple calculus of d/dx exp(x) = exp(x) tells you that rates of change are in direct proportion to the size of infected population, explaining the much bigger spikes as the infected population increases.


France\'s measured second case peak is now over 3x the first one and
still climbing. All people can say about the biology is masks, masks,
masks.

Simplest is best. Total lockdown was never necessary, but masks and distancing was. If they had strictly adhered to this from the beginning, the virus would be a rarity by now.
Adhered forever? Wuhan Patient Zero was a rarity, but seeded the
world. Rarity ain\'t good enough.

That was a naive population unaware of the virus and its severity. Masks are a two way street. They prevent spreaders from spreading it too. If everyone wore masks, the virus will go away.

And garlic keeps vampires away.

Some serious people are questioning whether masks help at all. The
original theory about big droplets settling on touchable surfaces
within 6\' of a sneeze is pretty much shot.

Numbers don\'t amount to much. wear a mask and you \'probably\' will remain healthy. Don\'t wear a mask and you will catch it eventually depending on the infected population in your area, which is probably large. That\'s all you need to know.


There were a bunch of political progressives intercepting people at
Safeway this morning. They looked at my American Flag mask and didn\'t
bother to perster me. OK, masks can be useful.

You\'re being foolish. So far you\'ve gotten away with it because the infected population density in your area is something like 10% (?) When and if it reaches 50%, you\'ll be playing Russian roulette.

I\'ve had covid. It wasn\'t too bad. Mostly made me tired for a few
months.


--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Ricketty C]

On Sunday, October 11, 2020 at 11:57:23 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sun, 11 Oct 2020 09:30:08 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

On Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 4:17:06 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 12:27:40 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

On Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 10:45:11 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 05:08:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/10/09/covid-19-cases-az-spiked-151-after-statewide-stay-home-order-and-dropped-75-following-local-mask-man/5911813002/

Are there still ignorant fools out there who think Trump, and some equally stupid GOP governors, didn\'t contribute directly to the mayhem and expense of the pandemic by flaunting disregard for the recommendations of public health experts?

NEJM is right, these people need to go.
The case curve in Arizona looks like most others, a roughly gaussian
bump about six weeks FWHM. Of course people panic and do stuff as
cases climb, and take credit for the results, but that doesn\'t seem to
change the characteristic curve.

Isolation and masking do protect some people from exposure, which
makes them available to the virus for a long tail and a second spike.
Looks to me like the harder they locked down, the bigger the second
peak. That\'s logical.

Several european countries are having huge second spikes now. Arizona
may be growing one.

That\'s the nature of exponential growth. The simple calculus of d/dx exp(x) = exp(x) tells you that rates of change are in direct proportion to the size of infected population, explaining the much bigger spikes as the infected population increases.


France\'s measured second case peak is now over 3x the first one and
still climbing. All people can say about the biology is masks, masks,
masks.

Simplest is best. Total lockdown was never necessary, but masks and distancing was. If they had strictly adhered to this from the beginning, the virus would be a rarity by now.
Adhered forever? Wuhan Patient Zero was a rarity, but seeded the
world. Rarity ain\'t good enough.

That was a naive population unaware of the virus and its severity. Masks are a two way street. They prevent spreaders from spreading it too. If everyone wore masks, the virus will go away.

And garlic keeps vampires away.

Amazing insight! I don\'t know how anyone hasn\'t thought of that before. Larkin has solved the pandemic!!!

Some serious people are questioning whether masks help at all. The
original theory about big droplets settling on touchable surfaces
within 6\' of a sneeze is pretty much shot.

Numbers don\'t amount to much. wear a mask and you \'probably\' will remain healthy. Don\'t wear a mask and you will catch it eventually depending on the infected population in your area, which is probably large. That\'s all you need to know.


There were a bunch of political progressives intercepting people at
Safeway this morning. They looked at my American Flag mask and didn\'t
bother to perster me. OK, masks can be useful.

You\'re being foolish. So far you\'ve gotten away with it because the infected population density in your area is something like 10% (?) When and if it reaches 50%, you\'ll be playing Russian roulette.

I\'ve had covid. It wasn\'t too bad. Mostly made me tired for a few
months.

Completely fatuous BS. You never got tested. Most likely you had a burger with a particularly tasty strain of E. Coli.

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Ricketty C]

On Monday, October 12, 2020 at 7:22:31 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:

Fourth case, Cov-19 becomes part of our every year flu....
changes too fast for permanent vaccine
George H.
(who is still more interested in where the F it came from.)

That\'s possible, but eventually, unless it does the yearly morph like the flu, it will provide herd immunity... unless we simply don\'t have lasting immunity... unless, unless...

I guess we just don\'t know enough about this particular disease yet.

So why are you interested in where this disease comes from but not any of the other viruses that mutate into new forms every year?

--

Rick C.

-+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, October 13, 2020 at 12:49:13 PM UTC+11, Ricketty C wrote:

On Monday, October 12, 2020 at 7:22:31 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:

Fourth case, Cov-19 becomes part of our every year flu....
changes too fast for permanent vaccine
George H.
(who is still more interested in where the F it came from.)
That\'s possible, but eventually, unless it does the yearly morph like the flu, it will provide herd immunity... unless we simply don\'t have lasting immunity... unless, unless...

Seasonal flu doesn\'t ado any kind of \"yearly morph\". It just keeps on changing all the time, and some of the changes happen in places that stop an antibody to an earlier form from recognising it as much the same virus.

I guess we just don\'t know enough about this particular disease yet.

So why are you interested in where this disease comes from but not any of the other viruses that mutate into new forms every year?

It\'s the usual conspiracy theory bait - it\'s much more interesting to think about people conspiring against you than it is to think about the random operations of purposeless evolution. Motivated design has fewer options that random evolution, so - in a sense - it\'s rational to pay attention to a narrower range of possibilities. It\'s also frequently a symptom of a fairly common psychological disorder..

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[server]

On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 05:08:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
<bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/10/09/covid-19-cases-az-spiked-151-after-statewide-stay-home-order-and-dropped-75-following-local-mask-man/5911813002/

Are there still ignorant fools out there who think Trump, and some equally stupid GOP governors, didn\'t contribute directly to the mayhem and expense of the pandemic by flaunting disregard for the recommendations of public health experts?

NEJM is right, these people need to go.

Basically all european countries are having secondary case peaks, but
the Netherlands is shocking:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherlands/

They are at 6 times their April peak and the curve is still bowing
upwards. Even if testing has really ramped up, something strange is
going on.

France is at about 4x its first peak and still headed up.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

UK is at about 3x its April peak and still going up. Belguim is about
4x and headed up. Italy is about 1x but still going up.

It will be interesting to see the shapes of the secondary peaks, after
they settle down.

Sweden had a weird flat peak in June and is having a smaller one now.


--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[whit3rd]

On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 9:36:31 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 05:08:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/10/09/covid-19-cases-az-spiked-151-after-statewide-stay-home-order-and-dropped-75-following-local-mask-man/5911813002/

Are there still ignorant fools out there who think Trump, and some equally stupid GOP governors, didn\'t contribute directly to the mayhem and expense of the pandemic by flaunting disregard for the recommendations of public health experts?

NEJM is right, these people need to go

Basically all european countries are having secondary case peaks, but
the Netherlands is shocking:

Omigod, it\'s that damned bump-ology again!
[lots of uninteresting drivel omitted]

It will be interesting to see the shapes of the secondary peaks, after
they settle down.

No, not interesting. We are fighting a pandemic disease; it won\'t be settled by pointing
at peaks and saying \'uh-oh\' for a few months. Shapes and \'secondary\'
designations are meaningless, a waste of time. Every infant, and the pet rock
in my junk drawer, are just as effective as bump-ology.

> Sweden had a weird flat peak in June and is having a smaller one now.

And you didn\'t learn anything from that, nor did anyone else.

 

[server]

On Thu, 15 Oct 2020 17:53:52 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
wrote:

On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 9:36:31 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 05:08:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/10/09/covid-19-cases-az-spiked-151-after-statewide-stay-home-order-and-dropped-75-following-local-mask-man/5911813002/

Are there still ignorant fools out there who think Trump, and some equally stupid GOP governors, didn\'t contribute directly to the mayhem and expense of the pandemic by flaunting disregard for the recommendations of public health experts?

NEJM is right, these people need to go

Basically all european countries are having secondary case peaks, but
the Netherlands is shocking:

Omigod, it\'s that damned bump-ology again!
[lots of uninteresting drivel omitted]

I wonder if the Netherlands will peak at 10x or more times their April
case peak. They are at 6x now and maybe on the linear part of the
slope, which is usually about halfway to the top.

Really, the waveform keeps recurring, all over the world.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, October 16, 2020 at 1:29:22 PM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Thu, 15 Oct 2020 17:53:52 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com
wrote:
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 9:36:31 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 10 Oct 2020 05:08:49 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/10/09/covid-19-cases-az-spiked-151-after-statewide-stay-home-order-and-dropped-75-following-local-mask-man/5911813002/

Are there still ignorant fools out there who think Trump, and some equally stupid GOP governors, didn\'t contribute directly to the mayhem and expense of the pandemic by flaunting disregard for the recommendations of public health experts?

NEJM is right, these people need to go

Basically all european countries are having secondary case peaks, but
the Netherlands is shocking:

Omigod, it\'s that damned bump-ology again!
[lots of uninteresting drivel omitted]
I wonder if the Netherlands will peak at 10x or more times their April
case peak. They are at 6x now and maybe on the linear part of the
slope, which is usually about halfway to the top.

Except that the Dutch administration is paying attention, and could take effective action.

> Really, the waveform keeps recurring, all over the world.

There do seem to be a lot of complacent idiots all over the place. We aren\'t talking about waveforms being generated by identical particles following unchanging rules, but rather people getting infected when they aren\'t minimising their chances - of infecting other people and getting infected themselves - as vigorously as they might. The Dutch aren\'t stupid or badly educated, and while they are stuck with a right-of-centre ruling coalition, it isn\'t one that is either stupid or complacent.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney