Better Rate of Growth Data

[Rick C]

I have been collecting the data from the CDC which is dated to the estimated time of infection. This data shows new infections being attributed to dates up to a month ago. This both raises the numbers for older data and lowers the numbers for newer data. It also invalidates the newest data as being incomplete.

Constructing a graph from the most recent curve up to the peak infection rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19. I will note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new data. The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data dated 3/19..

Unfortunately this method has a much longer lag time from actions to fight this disease.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

I have been collecting the data from the CDC which is dated to the estimated time of infection. This data shows new infections being attributed to dates up to a month ago. This both raises the numbers for older data and lowers the numbers for newer data. It also invalidates the newest data as being incomplete.

Constructing a graph from the most recent curve up to the peak infection rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19. I will note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new data. The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data dated 3/19.

Unfortunately this method has a much longer lag time from actions to fight this disease.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I've been following it. It is and has been growing at almost
exactly 1.34x per day in the U.S. for the past 15 days. The U.K.
growth rate is also very consistent, but considerably lower. Weird.

Most of our infections are in New York, and nearly all of
the spread is from New Yorkers fleeing to Florida and
probably also visiting New Orleans' Mardi Gras, leaving
a swath of WuFlu as they go.

James Arthur

 

[Rick C]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:37:28 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
I have been collecting the data from the CDC which is dated to the estimated time of infection. This data shows new infections being attributed to dates up to a month ago. This both raises the numbers for older data and lowers the numbers for newer data. It also invalidates the newest data as being incomplete.

Constructing a graph from the most recent curve up to the peak infection rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19. I will note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new data. The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data dated 3/19.

Unfortunately this method has a much longer lag time from actions to fight this disease.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I've been following it. It is and has been growing at almost
exactly 1.34x per day in the U.S. for the past 15 days. The U.K.
growth rate is also very consistent, but considerably lower. Weird.

Most of our infections are in New York, and nearly all of
the spread is from New Yorkers fleeing to Florida and
probably also visiting New Orleans' Mardi Gras, leaving
a swath of WuFlu as they go.

James Arthur

You have been working with the numbers that are out of date by the time you get them. Each day the "new infections" are a combination of people infected over the last two weeks or even more. The data I'm working with is dated to when the person would have been infected, not when they were detected..

That's the point. Bad data, bad conclusions. Not that you need bad data to reach bad conclusions.

--

Rick C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:37:19 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
I have been collecting the data from the CDC which is dated to the estimated time of infection. This data shows new infections being attributed to dates up to a month ago. This both raises the numbers for older data and lowers the numbers for newer data. It also invalidates the newest data as being incomplete.

Constructing a graph from the most recent curve up to the peak infection rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19. I will note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new data. The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data dated 3/19.

Unfortunately this method has a much longer lag time from actions to fight this disease.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I've been following it. It is and has been growing at almost
exactly 1.34x per day in the U.S. for the past 15 days. The U.K.
growth rate is also very consistent, but considerably lower. Weird.

Most of our infections are in New York, and nearly all of
the spread is from New Yorkers fleeing to Florida and
probably also visiting New Orleans' Mardi Gras, leaving
a swath of WuFlu as they go.

James Arthur

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

I'm watching the "daily increase" graphs. The last few days are flat
or declining for some. Italy, France, Germany, Austria, Switzerland
(which has no shelter-in-place rules) all seem to have peaked a few
days ago. You can sort of mentally plop a bell-shaped curve over a lot
of those graphs. We need another week of data.

I don't trust the data from China. Doesn't make sense. I suspect they
will open the country for business and pretend there are no more
deaths.

I never knew that New Jersey is in Africa, but I sort of suspected
something like that.




--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 9:54:19 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:37:19 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
I have been collecting the data from the CDC which is dated to the estimated time of infection. This data shows new infections being attributed to dates up to a month ago. This both raises the numbers for older data and lowers the numbers for newer data. It also invalidates the newest data as being incomplete.

Constructing a graph from the most recent curve up to the peak infection rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19. I will note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new data. The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data dated 3/19.

Unfortunately this method has a much longer lag time from actions to fight this disease.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I've been following it. It is and has been growing at almost
exactly 1.34x per day in the U.S. for the past 15 days. The U.K.
growth rate is also very consistent, but considerably lower. Weird.

Most of our infections are in New York, and nearly all of
the spread is from New Yorkers fleeing to Florida and
probably also visiting New Orleans' Mardi Gras, leaving
a swath of WuFlu as they go.

James Arthur

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

I'm watching the "daily increase" graphs. The last few days are flat
or declining for some. Italy, France, Germany, Austria, Switzerland
(which has no shelter-in-place rules) all seem to have peaked a few
days ago. You can sort of mentally plop a bell-shaped curve over a lot
of those graphs. We need another week of data.

The CDC has a useful graph of the various states:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html?CDC_AA_refVal

Screen-grabbing that graph's evolution over time shows the spread.

I've been following https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
for the overall picture -- the log graphs make it easy. But we
can't vouch for the site's accuracy.

I don't trust the data from China. Doesn't make sense. I suspect they
will open the country for business and pretend there are no more
deaths.

I never knew that New Jersey is in Africa, but I sort of suspected
something like that.

I took a peek at New Jersey that time we were in New York, ages ago.
Dickensian.

Cheers,
James

 

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:37:19 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
I have been collecting the data from the CDC which is dated to the estimated time of infection. This data shows new infections being attributed to dates up to a month ago. This both raises the numbers for older data and lowers the numbers for newer data. It also invalidates the newest data as being incomplete.

Constructing a graph from the most recent curve up to the peak infection rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19. I will note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new data. The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data dated 3/19.

Unfortunately this method has a much longer lag time from actions to fight this disease.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I've been following it. It is and has been growing at almost
exactly 1.34x per day in the U.S. for the past 15 days. The U.K.
growth rate is also very consistent, but considerably lower. Weird.

Most of our infections are in New York, and nearly all of
the spread is from New Yorkers fleeing to Florida and
probably also visiting New Orleans' Mardi Gras, leaving
a swath of WuFlu as they go.

James Arthur

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/bahrain-hydroxychloroquine-success-response-covid-19

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/nevada-governor-bans-malaria-drugs-for-coronavirus-patients/

Does this virus cause insanity? Mild cases, just stupidity?





--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 1:47:58 PM UTC+11, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 9:54:19 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:37:19 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
I have been collecting the data from the CDC which is dated to the estimated time of infection. This data shows new infections being attributed to dates up to a month ago. This both raises the numbers for older data and lowers the numbers for newer data. It also invalidates the newest data as being incomplete.

Constructing a graph from the most recent curve up to the peak infection rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19. I will note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new data. The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data dated 3/19.

Unfortunately this method has a much longer lag time from actions to fight this disease.

I've been following it. It is and has been growing at almost
exactly 1.34x per day in the U.S. for the past 15 days. The U.K.
growth rate is also very consistent, but considerably lower. Weird.

Most of our infections are in New York, and nearly all of
the spread is from New Yorkers fleeing to Florida and
probably also visiting New Orleans' Mardi Gras, leaving
a swath of WuFlu as they go.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

I'm watching the "daily increase" graphs. The last few days are flat
or declining for some. Italy, France, Germany, Austria, Switzerland
(which has no shelter-in-place rules) all seem to have peaked a few
days ago. You can sort of mentally plop a bell-shaped curve over a lot
of those graphs. We need another week of data.

The CDC has a useful graph of the various states:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html?CDC_AA_refVal

Screen-grabbing that graph's evolution over time shows the spread.

I've been following https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
for the overall picture -- the log graphs make it easy. But we
can't vouch for the site's accuracy.

They do say where they get their data from.

> > I don't trust the data from China. Doesn't make sense.

John Larkin's idea of what might make sense isn't all that useful.
I've not seen anybody claim that the China data is false with any kind of supporting evidence.

The general line is that they don't like the data and think the fact that it come from China is an excuse for them to invent their own.

> > I suspect they will open the country for business and pretend there are no more deaths.

As Trump seems to be planning to do.

<snip>

--
Bill Sloman. Sydney

 

[whit3rd]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 6:54:19 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

I don't trust the data from China. Doesn't make sense. I suspect they
will open the country for business and pretend there are no more
deaths.

Since China's history is that they alerted everyone to the disease, and closed
parts of the country, it's illogical to expect such a reversal. Are you having a
panic attack?

 

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 22:24:03 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 6:54:19 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

I don't trust the data from China. Doesn't make sense. I suspect they
will open the country for business and pretend there are no more
deaths.

Since China's history is that they alerted everyone to the disease, and closed
parts of the country, it's illogical to expect such a reversal. Are you having a
panic attack?

1) China did everything they could do to hide the disease, until they
couldn't any more.

2) I never panic. I was born without a fear mechanism. I have no
startle reflex. That forces me to think with neurons, not hormones.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 1:24:07 AM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 6:54:19 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

I don't trust the data from China. Doesn't make sense. I suspect they
will open the country for business and pretend there are no more
deaths.

Since China's history is that they alerted everyone to the disease, and closed
parts of the country, it's illogical to expect such a reversal. Are you having a
panic attack?

1) <quote>
"In late December, rumors of a mysterious virus started circulating
on Chinese social media. China notified the WHO on Dec. 31 that there
was a pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan. Based on Chinese data, the
WHO issued a Jan. 5 statement saying there were 44 cases and no
evidence of person-to-person transmission.

But a Washington Post reconstruction of events showed that by Jan. 5, some Wuhan authorities knew that doctors were discussing the spread of a SARS-like virus. For this, they were detained and denounced."
</quote>

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/chinese-officials-note-serious-problems-in-coronavirus-response-the-world-health-organization-keeps-praising-them/2020/02/08/b663dd7c-4834-11ea-91ab-ce439aa5c7c1_story.html

2) <quote>Chinese laboratories identified a mystery virus as a highly infectious new pathogen by late December last year, but they were ordered to stop tests, destroy samples and suppress the news, a Chinese media outlet has revealed.</quote>
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chinese-scientists-destroyed-proof-of-virus-in-december-rz055qjnj

3)
.--
| January 20, 2020
|
| The World Health Organization confirmed that there is evidence of "limited human-to-human transmission" of the new virus.
| https://abcnews.go.com/Health/human-human-transmission-coronavirus-reported-china/story?id=68403105
'--

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-03-25 23:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:37:19 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
I have been collecting the data from the CDC which is dated to the estimated time of infection. This data shows new infections being attributed to dates up to a month ago. This both raises the numbers for older data and lowers the numbers for newer data. It also invalidates the newest data as being incomplete.

Constructing a graph from the most recent curve up to the peak infection rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19. I will note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new data. The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data dated 3/19.

Unfortunately this method has a much longer lag time from actions to fight this disease.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I've been following it. It is and has been growing at almost
exactly 1.34x per day in the U.S. for the past 15 days. The U.K.
growth rate is also very consistent, but considerably lower. Weird.

Most of our infections are in New York, and nearly all of
the spread is from New Yorkers fleeing to Florida and
probably also visiting New Orleans' Mardi Gras, leaving
a swath of WuFlu as they go.

James Arthur


https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/bahrain-hydroxychloroquine-success-response-covid-19

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/nevada-governor-bans-malaria-drugs-for-coronavirus-patients/

Does this virus cause insanity? Mild cases, just stupidity?

He climbed down, claiming that it's only permitted for inpatients, so
that worried folks don't hoard it all. A friend of my daughter's has
rheumatoid arthritis, and is having trouble getting her Plaquenil
prescription filled.

That Ferguson guy from Imperial College has now drastically reduced his
(previously apocalyptic) mortality estimates:

<https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/>

Cheers

Phil Hobbs


--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 26/03/20 16:58, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

If this thing does peak and go away naturally in the summer, as colds
and flu usually do, there will be no end of people to take credit for
it.

Very true. Starting with the politicians

OTOH, if it doesn't go away then they will simply
deny it, claim they were misinterpreted, or do a
Stalinist revision of history.

 

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 12:37:54 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:

On 2020-03-25 23:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:37:19 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
I have been collecting the data from the CDC which is dated to the estimated time of infection. This data shows new infections being attributed to dates up to a month ago. This both raises the numbers for older data and lowers the numbers for newer data. It also invalidates the newest data as being incomplete.

Constructing a graph from the most recent curve up to the peak infection rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19. I will note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new data. The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data dated 3/19.

Unfortunately this method has a much longer lag time from actions to fight this disease.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I've been following it. It is and has been growing at almost
exactly 1.34x per day in the U.S. for the past 15 days. The U.K.
growth rate is also very consistent, but considerably lower. Weird.

Most of our infections are in New York, and nearly all of
the spread is from New Yorkers fleeing to Florida and
probably also visiting New Orleans' Mardi Gras, leaving
a swath of WuFlu as they go.

James Arthur


https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/bahrain-hydroxychloroquine-success-response-covid-19

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/nevada-governor-bans-malaria-drugs-for-coronavirus-patients/

Does this virus cause insanity? Mild cases, just stupidity?

He climbed down, claiming that it's only permitted for inpatients, so
that worried folks don't hoard it all. A friend of my daughter's has
rheumatoid arthritis, and is having trouble getting her Plaquenil
prescription filled.

That Ferguson guy from Imperial College has now drastically reduced his
(previously apocalyptic) mortality estimates:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

Hey, that means the stimulus package Congress hasn't passed yet is
already working!

Cheers,
James Arthur
---
"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed
(and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an
endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary." - H. L. Mencken

 

On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 12:37:43 -0400, Phil Hobbs
<pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> wrote:

On 2020-03-25 23:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:37:19 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
I have been collecting the data from the CDC which is dated to the estimated time of infection. This data shows new infections being attributed to dates up to a month ago. This both raises the numbers for older data and lowers the numbers for newer data. It also invalidates the newest data as being incomplete.

Constructing a graph from the most recent curve up to the peak infection rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19. I will note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new data. The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data dated 3/19.

Unfortunately this method has a much longer lag time from actions to fight this disease.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I've been following it. It is and has been growing at almost
exactly 1.34x per day in the U.S. for the past 15 days. The U.K.
growth rate is also very consistent, but considerably lower. Weird.

Most of our infections are in New York, and nearly all of
the spread is from New Yorkers fleeing to Florida and
probably also visiting New Orleans' Mardi Gras, leaving
a swath of WuFlu as they go.

James Arthur


https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/bahrain-hydroxychloroquine-success-response-covid-19

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/nevada-governor-bans-malaria-drugs-for-coronavirus-patients/

Does this virus cause insanity? Mild cases, just stupidity?

He climbed down, claiming that it's only permitted for inpatients, so
that worried folks don't hoard it all. A friend of my daughter's has
rheumatoid arthritis, and is having trouble getting her Plaquenil
prescription filled.

That Ferguson guy from Imperial College has now drastically reduced his
(previously apocalyptic) mortality estimates:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

If this thing does peak and go away naturally in the summer, as colds
and flu usually do, there will be no end of people to take credit for
it.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 26/03/20 16:37, Phil Hobbs wrote:

On 2020-03-25 23:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:37:19 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
I have been collecting the data from the CDC which is dated to the estimated
time of infection.  This data shows new infections being attributed to dates
up to a month ago.  This both raises the numbers for older data and lowers
the numbers for newer data.  It also invalidates the newest data as being
incomplete.

Constructing a graph from the most recent curve up to the peak infection
rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a slope of 0.19.  I will
note this number and update it each day as the CDC releases new data.  The
data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24 and has moved from 3/9 in data dated 3/19.

Unfortunately this method has a much longer lag time from actions to fight
this disease.

--

   Rick C.

   - Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
   - Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I've been following it. It is and has been growing at almost
exactly 1.34x per day in the U.S. for the past 15 days. The U.K.
growth rate is also very consistent, but considerably lower. Weird.

Most of our infections are in New York, and nearly all of
the spread is from New Yorkers fleeing to Florida and
probably also visiting New Orleans' Mardi Gras, leaving
a swath of WuFlu as they go.

James Arthur


https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/bahrain-hydroxychloroquine-success-response-covid-19


https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/nevada-governor-bans-malaria-drugs-for-coronavirus-patients/


Does this virus cause insanity? Mild cases, just stupidity?

He climbed down, claiming that it's only permitted for inpatients, so that
worried folks don't hoard it all.  A friend of my daughter's has rheumatoid
arthritis, and is having trouble getting her Plaquenil prescription filled.

That Ferguson guy from Imperial College has now drastically reduced his
(previously apocalyptic) mortality estimates:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

Probably because the UK has now taken relatively drastic
lockdown precautions. They listened to him and the *range*
of mortality estimates, and took action to avoid the
*worst* of them.

So of course he would reduce the mortality estimates away
from the "there's no problem" do-nothing worst cases!
It would be noteworthy if he didn't!

OTOH, the Oxford University "we're all already infected"
speculations feel like "we can't rule this out and need
more money to study it" statements.

 

[Rick C]

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 1:07:52 PM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:

On 26/03/20 16:58, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
If this thing does peak and go away naturally in the summer, as colds
and flu usually do, there will be no end of people to take credit for
it.

Very true. Starting with the politicians

OTOH, if it doesn't go away then they will simply
deny it, claim they were misinterpreted, or do a
Stalinist revision of history.

The flu doesn't "go away" in the summer nor do colds. We may have less of them, but that isn't the goal with this disease. As people keep pointing out, unless we get the infection numbers VERY low, we can't expect to prevent another resurgence.

Actually, knowing how people are, if we see the number of cases drop off to the point we can reopen businesses and restaurants people will get used to the freedom again. So if we see a resurgence in the fall/winter it will likely be another massive effort to get people to take it seriously and lock down again.

There is some irony in the way Cuomo did not want to lock down NYC and treat the state as a whole. The population centers should be treated differently. Here there were only two infections in the county the last time I checked. Most of the state is like that. With adequate contact tracing efforts that level of infection can be maintained at that low level without a lock down.

Comparatively the cities are basket cases and must be locked down to prevent the spread to critical levels. Why do the authorities not understand that?

--

Rick C.

-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[whit3rd]

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 9:29:08 AM UTC-7, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 1:24:07 AM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 6:54:19 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

I don't trust the data from China. Doesn't make sense. I suspect they
will open the country for business and pretend there are no more
deaths.

Since China's history is that they alerted everyone to the disease, and closed
parts of the country...

"In late December, rumors of a mysterious virus started circulating
on Chinese social media. China notified the WHO on Dec. 31 that there
was a pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan. Based on Chinese data, the
WHO issued a Jan. 5 statement saying there were 44 cases and no
evidence of person-to-person transmission.

But a Washington Post reconstruction of events showed that by Jan. 5, some Wuhan authorities knew that doctors were discussing the spread of a SARS-like virus. For this, they were detained and denounced."
2) <quote>Chinese laboratories identified a mystery virus as a highly infectious new pathogen by late December last year, but they were ordered to stop tests, destroy samples and suppress the news...

Yeah, there's a few weeks with only dozens of patients and resistance to
the 'new disease' hypothesis. That didn't last. The China response and their
sharing of information with the rest of the world was prompt and seems
complete. The 'some Wuhan authorities' have been disciplined, for the
health of the nation (of China), and that's probably for the best.

The idea that data from China 'doesn't make sense' is a laugh, why would early stages
of an epidemic EVER give complete and useful knowledge? The early-months data
from Italy, Korea, Japan, etc. aren't completely informative, either.

 

[Rick C]

The CDC is being a biatch again. The data I'm using for my calculations is showing 11,000 when worldometer is showing 13,000 new cases. The CDC site gives totals for the two days that differ by almost 14,000. What happened to the missing 3,000 new cases?

The footnote says they don't include data that does not have an estimated onset date or a specimine collection date. Is our data handling so bad we have lost 3,000 data points?

--

Rick C.

-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-03-26 13:05, Tom Gardner wrote:

On 26/03/20 16:37, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-25 23:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:37:19 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 2:02:06 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
I have been collecting the data from the CDC which is dated to the
estimated time of infection.  This data shows new infections being
attributed to dates up to a month ago.  This both raises the
numbers for older data and lowers the numbers for newer data.  It
also invalidates the newest data as being incomplete.

Constructing a graph from the most recent curve up to the peak
infection rate gives a very consistent exponential line with a
slope of 0.19.  I will note this number and update it each day as
the CDC releases new data.  The data peak is 3/13 for data of 3/24
and has moved from 3/9 in data dated 3/19.

Unfortunately this method has a much longer lag time from actions
to fight this disease.

--

   Rick C.

   - Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
   - Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I've been following it. It is and has been growing at almost
exactly 1.34x per day in the U.S. for the past 15 days. The U.K.
growth rate is also very consistent, but considerably lower. Weird.

Most of our infections are in New York, and nearly all of
the spread is from New Yorkers fleeing to Florida and
probably also visiting New Orleans' Mardi Gras, leaving
a swath of WuFlu as they go.

James Arthur


https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/bahrain-hydroxychloroquine-success-response-covid-19


https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/nevada-governor-bans-malaria-drugs-for-coronavirus-patients/


Does this virus cause insanity? Mild cases, just stupidity?

He climbed down, claiming that it's only permitted for inpatients, so
that worried folks don't hoard it all.  A friend of my daughter's has
rheumatoid arthritis, and is having trouble getting her Plaquenil
prescription filled.

That Ferguson guy from Imperial College has now drastically reduced
his (previously apocalyptic) mortality estimates:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/


Probably because the UK has now taken relatively drastic
lockdown precautions. They listened to him and the *range*
of mortality estimates, and took action to avoid the
*worst* of them.

So of course he would reduce the mortality estimates away
from the "there's no problem" do-nothing worst cases!
It would be noteworthy if he didn't!

Sure, but a whole lot of the heavy breathing that's still going on
assumes that we're going to saturate all the hospitals.

OTOH, the Oxford University "we're all already infected"
speculations feel like "we can't rule this out and need
more money to study it" statements.

The authors are computational types, and calling for field surveys,
which I don't think is their gig.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

[Rick C]

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 3:45:14 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:

On 2020-03-26 13:05, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 26/03/20 16:37, Phil Hobbs wrote:

That Ferguson guy from Imperial College has now drastically reduced
his (previously apocalyptic) mortality estimates:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/


Probably because the UK has now taken relatively drastic
lockdown precautions. They listened to him and the *range*
of mortality estimates, and took action to avoid the
*worst* of them.

So of course he would reduce the mortality estimates away
from the "there's no problem" do-nothing worst cases!
It would be noteworthy if he didn't!

Sure, but a whole lot of the heavy breathing that's still going on
assumes that we're going to saturate all the hospitals.

You mean rational concerns that hospitals are being saturated are being ignored or exaggerated as irrational cries of the sky falling.

NY is in the early stages of the hospitals being overrun. If the current measures to limit the disease other areas of the country are close on NY's heels. Are you denying that?

--

Rick C.

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