R
Rick C
Guest
On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 1:29:35 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
You need to read more carefully. I was talking about the log graph. The graph has a tab for display on a log scale.
Like you said, there is a delay and we really are just now shutting down restaurants, bars and people staying home from work. A friend told me today that the federal workers in DC are not at work and so some number of them are partying. So no, the concept hasn't reached everyone. It's like the people in Galveston having hurricane parties.
You aren't making sense. We don't have empty streets. We don't have lock down. So there is no reason to believe we will make enough of a dent in the infection rate to not reach 100,000 infected by the end of the month.
Yes, we all know that, but there will still be enough who require serious care that the hospitals won't be able to handle them. How many end up needing intervention to save their lives depends on the multiplier. With the numbers rising exponentially the multiplier isn't really important. That will just change the date of hospital overload from a Monday to a Thursday.
Only in dire situations like we have now.
I can't imagine that any reasonable government would have reacted more quickly and would have been much more proactive about isolating people and putting the nation into a lock down. No one in their right mind can continue thinking we are going to slide through this. Not even Larkin. By this weekend I predict even he will understand the need for dramatic action.
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Rick C.
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On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 3:55:46 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 11:08:27 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 5:44:05 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 18 Mar 2020 16:18:42 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:
Every infection, when most of the population is unaffected, is a seed for exponential
growth if we drop the restrictions. We need to know that the affected population NOW
will not exceed critical-care facilities in a week or so ...
Most US communities currently have no restrictions, so are presumably
growing cases exponentially. Do you think their medical facilities
will be overloaded in a week or so from now?
What are you smoking? Schools and universities closed last week, along with public libraries, and this week restaurants are shuttered. Every 'community' with an international airport most certainly DOES have restrictions. Small communities like ski resorts can slip past the precautions, do you think?
Ask Italy how that theory worked out.
Hopefully, these restrictions are effective enough, but the numbers matter, and we need a safety margin because sometimes folk like John Larkin shade their numbers or other facts. These inconvenient (costly, disastrous, stressful) changes are not really a solution, they just buy time.
As I read all the posts it seems most people are "getting it" even if a little late (I include myself in that group). There are a few who focus on silly things like if the hand cleaning dispenser at Walmart is a token effort or actually important. Then there is Larkin who seems to be in complete denial about this raging pandemic. All anyone has to do is simply sit down with the numbers and look at the log graph of infection in the US or any other country (except for the few who seem to know how to deal with this). For the last two weeks in the US it has formed a straight line. Extrapolating that line clearly shows what will happen if nothing is done.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
It isn't a straight line, its an exponentially rising curve - both number of cases and the number of new cases per day, which is what is implied by exponential.
You need to read more carefully. I was talking about the log graph. The graph has a tab for display on a log scale.
I suppose people can be in denial by thinking the limited efforts being taken so far will stop the disease, but they won't. We still have loads of people going to work and going to restaurants where they aren't closed. I suppose people can be in denial thinking this disease isn't all that serious, but it is. Even if the mortality rate is only 1%, that's a huge number of people.
We have just a few more days and I don't mean weeks, I mean DAYS to get our act together and shut down this country so that the transmission stops, NOW.
You might be able to slow it down dramatically NOW, but new cases are people who typically got infected five days ago, so it's going to be five days before you see anything in the graph of reported cases.
There is a week delay from transmission to the disease being detected. So we are already at 40,000 people infected in this country. We just haven't detected them yet. By next week we will be at 100,000 people infected. By March 25 we will be at 100,000 people verified as infected if the current measures don't have an impact.
Haven't had an impact yet.
Like you said, there is a delay and we really are just now shutting down restaurants, bars and people staying home from work. A friend told me today that the federal workers in DC are not at work and so some number of them are partying. So no, the concept hasn't reached everyone. It's like the people in Galveston having hurricane parties.
I'm pretty confident the current measures won't have enough of an impact and by the end of the month we will have verified 100,000 infected.
Your confidence isn't well founded. Effective lock-down is immediately visible as empty streets, but you don't know it is effective as an anti-infection measure until the new case rate starts dropping
You aren't making sense. We don't have empty streets. We don't have lock down. So there is no reason to believe we will make enough of a dent in the infection rate to not reach 100,000 infected by the end of the month.
Three of the largest employers in the US, the automakers, are shutting their factories!!! Aren't there enough clues around for everyone to figure it out yet that this is serious???
Do we need to repeat the mistakes they made in China and reach the point where we can't even bring people to the hospital and have to put them in makeshift "hospitals" with no treatment because there is no room?
Not so much "hospitals" as isolation wards. If you aren't a serious or critical case, you don't need much treatment.
Yes, we all know that, but there will still be enough who require serious care that the hospitals won't be able to handle them. How many end up needing intervention to save their lives depends on the multiplier. With the numbers rising exponentially the multiplier isn't really important. That will just change the date of hospital overload from a Monday to a Thursday.
Or will we figure this out before we reach that point? We need leadership and we don't have it. If we had a real leader rather than the Real Estate Mogul in Chief we likely would have had decisive action weeks ago and not have to wait for state Governors to lead the federal government.
I was hoping to get through Trump's presidency without any real harm being done. I guess I can give up on that hope.
It was a pretty unrealistic hope. The Republican Party has learned to tolerate a bare-faced liar as their leader, and that's really harmful.
Only in dire situations like we have now.
I can't imagine that any reasonable government would have reacted more quickly and would have been much more proactive about isolating people and putting the nation into a lock down. No one in their right mind can continue thinking we are going to slide through this. Not even Larkin. By this weekend I predict even he will understand the need for dramatic action.
--
Rick C.
-++-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-++-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209