Why You Must Act Now

On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 1:29:35 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 3:55:46 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 11:08:27 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 5:44:05 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 18 Mar 2020 16:18:42 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

Every infection, when most of the population is unaffected, is a seed for exponential
growth if we drop the restrictions. We need to know that the affected population NOW
will not exceed critical-care facilities in a week or so ...

Most US communities currently have no restrictions, so are presumably
growing cases exponentially. Do you think their medical facilities
will be overloaded in a week or so from now?

What are you smoking? Schools and universities closed last week, along with public libraries, and this week restaurants are shuttered. Every 'community' with an international airport most certainly DOES have restrictions. Small communities like ski resorts can slip past the precautions, do you think?

Ask Italy how that theory worked out.

Hopefully, these restrictions are effective enough, but the numbers matter, and we need a safety margin because sometimes folk like John Larkin shade their numbers or other facts. These inconvenient (costly, disastrous, stressful) changes are not really a solution, they just buy time.

As I read all the posts it seems most people are "getting it" even if a little late (I include myself in that group). There are a few who focus on silly things like if the hand cleaning dispenser at Walmart is a token effort or actually important. Then there is Larkin who seems to be in complete denial about this raging pandemic. All anyone has to do is simply sit down with the numbers and look at the log graph of infection in the US or any other country (except for the few who seem to know how to deal with this). For the last two weeks in the US it has formed a straight line. Extrapolating that line clearly shows what will happen if nothing is done.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

It isn't a straight line, its an exponentially rising curve - both number of cases and the number of new cases per day, which is what is implied by exponential.

You need to read more carefully. I was talking about the log graph. The graph has a tab for display on a log scale.


I suppose people can be in denial by thinking the limited efforts being taken so far will stop the disease, but they won't. We still have loads of people going to work and going to restaurants where they aren't closed. I suppose people can be in denial thinking this disease isn't all that serious, but it is. Even if the mortality rate is only 1%, that's a huge number of people.

We have just a few more days and I don't mean weeks, I mean DAYS to get our act together and shut down this country so that the transmission stops, NOW.

You might be able to slow it down dramatically NOW, but new cases are people who typically got infected five days ago, so it's going to be five days before you see anything in the graph of reported cases.

There is a week delay from transmission to the disease being detected. So we are already at 40,000 people infected in this country. We just haven't detected them yet. By next week we will be at 100,000 people infected. By March 25 we will be at 100,000 people verified as infected if the current measures don't have an impact.

Haven't had an impact yet.

Like you said, there is a delay and we really are just now shutting down restaurants, bars and people staying home from work. A friend told me today that the federal workers in DC are not at work and so some number of them are partying. So no, the concept hasn't reached everyone. It's like the people in Galveston having hurricane parties.


I'm pretty confident the current measures won't have enough of an impact and by the end of the month we will have verified 100,000 infected.

Your confidence isn't well founded. Effective lock-down is immediately visible as empty streets, but you don't know it is effective as an anti-infection measure until the new case rate starts dropping

You aren't making sense. We don't have empty streets. We don't have lock down. So there is no reason to believe we will make enough of a dent in the infection rate to not reach 100,000 infected by the end of the month.


Three of the largest employers in the US, the automakers, are shutting their factories!!! Aren't there enough clues around for everyone to figure it out yet that this is serious???

Do we need to repeat the mistakes they made in China and reach the point where we can't even bring people to the hospital and have to put them in makeshift "hospitals" with no treatment because there is no room?

Not so much "hospitals" as isolation wards. If you aren't a serious or critical case, you don't need much treatment.

Yes, we all know that, but there will still be enough who require serious care that the hospitals won't be able to handle them. How many end up needing intervention to save their lives depends on the multiplier. With the numbers rising exponentially the multiplier isn't really important. That will just change the date of hospital overload from a Monday to a Thursday.


Or will we figure this out before we reach that point? We need leadership and we don't have it. If we had a real leader rather than the Real Estate Mogul in Chief we likely would have had decisive action weeks ago and not have to wait for state Governors to lead the federal government.

I was hoping to get through Trump's presidency without any real harm being done. I guess I can give up on that hope.

It was a pretty unrealistic hope. The Republican Party has learned to tolerate a bare-faced liar as their leader, and that's really harmful.

Only in dire situations like we have now.

I can't imagine that any reasonable government would have reacted more quickly and would have been much more proactive about isolating people and putting the nation into a lock down. No one in their right mind can continue thinking we are going to slide through this. Not even Larkin. By this weekend I predict even he will understand the need for dramatic action.

--

Rick C.

-++-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-++-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 10:10:50 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

So what do you expect to see by the end of the month?

A: A notice of dismissal from employment. :)
 
mpm <mpmillard@aol.com> wrote in news:dfe70b3a-1d1f-4707-9cc7-
9332af7b2cff@googlegroups.com:

On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 10:10:50 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:


So what do you expect to see by the end of the month?

A: A notice of dismissal from employment. :)

That's the second line. The first line is a notice of evaporation of
the employer.
 
On 19/03/20 11:32, mpm wrote:
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 10:10:50 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:


So what do you expect to see by the end of the month?

A: A notice of dismissal from employment. :)

And for those in rented accommodation, eviction :(
 
Tom Gardner <spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote in news:vUIcG.597600
$vS6.4441@fx24.am4:

On 19/03/20 11:32, mpm wrote:
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 10:10:50 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:


So what do you expect to see by the end of the month?

A: A notice of dismissal from employment. :)

And for those in rented accommodation, eviction :(

Instead of mass shootings, there will be stonings in the square...

Of landlords!
 
On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 7:42:24 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 19/03/20 11:32, mpm wrote:
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 10:10:50 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:


So what do you expect to see by the end of the month?

A: A notice of dismissal from employment. :)

And for those in rented accommodation, eviction :(

I would not expect many evictions. With many people unemployed and unable to pay rent, evictions just means the property is vacant and not generating any income. Better to let the tenants to continue to live in the apartment with the understanding of rent being paid when the tenant can pay.

If I had rental property I would prefer the property was inhabited and thus somewhat protected from vandals.

Dan
 
On 3/18/2020 10:12 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 18 Mar 2020 15:29:37 +0100, Gerhard Hoffmann <dk4xp@arcor.de
wrote:

Am 18.03.20 um 14:46 schrieb jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com:
On Wed, 18 Mar 2020 08:34:12 -0500, John S <Sophi.2@invalid.org
ing resorts/lodges.

You don't see mass outbreaks of disease among skiiers, like you do
among cruisers. Those ships are basically you-cant-get-away petri

You don't read the news, do you?

Here in Germany, half of the infections could be traced back
to a couple that visited a carnival session while already
being ill.

Of the rest, most are skiers returned from either south Tyrol
(Italy) or Tyrol ( Austria). The single hot spot was Bad Ischgl
in Tyrol where one Barkeeper was linked to at least 40 cases.

It was first found out in Iceland (!) where they screened passengers
of a flight home and found > 6 people with fewer, all of them
from Bad Ischgl. The Tyrolians were notified but ignored it so they
could get the money for a full week more of the main season.


dishes, loaded with frail old people and, apparently, dangerous HVAC
and food prep systems. Lots of dense group activity, too.

Open water, and chair lifts, are pretty clean places. Person-to-person
contact with strangers is unusual on a ski slope, and can cost you
your lift ticket.

Skiing is not about skiing.

Then don't buy expensive boots or lift tickets.

It is about aprčs ski, and aprčs ski is
about heavy drinking and sex.

Gerhard

Well, don't do that. You can get herpes, syphilis, gonorrhea,
hepatitis, and any one of about 40 potentiality cancer-causing
viruses.

So, that's what is wrong with you? Your brain is fried?
 
On 19/03/20 14:32, dcaster@krl.org wrote:
On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 7:42:24 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 19/03/20 11:32, mpm wrote:
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 10:10:50 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:


So what do you expect to see by the end of the month?

A: A notice of dismissal from employment. :)

And for those in rented accommodation, eviction :(

I would not expect many evictions. With many people unemployed and unable to pay rent, evictions just means the property is vacant and not generating any income. Better to let the tenants to continue to live in the apartment with the understanding of rent being paid when the tenant can pay.

If I had rental property I would prefer the property was inhabited and thus somewhat protected from vandals.

Those are valid points that I have put to my daughter,
who is extremely worried that her new make-and-sell
ice cream[1] business will be screwed.

My attitude: I'll be satisfied if we both survive the
next year. The business can be put into hibernation
and there's money saved for a rainy day - just like
this.

I hope if continue to put them across she will believe
me :)

Lots of people don't have such resources available.


[1] e.g. blueberry and spiced gin, yum. On principle,
she will never make a vanilla flavour :)
 
On Thu, 19 Mar 2020 10:44:40 -0500, John S <Sophi.2@invalid.org>
wrote:

On 3/18/2020 10:12 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 18 Mar 2020 15:29:37 +0100, Gerhard Hoffmann <dk4xp@arcor.de
wrote:

Am 18.03.20 um 14:46 schrieb jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com:
On Wed, 18 Mar 2020 08:34:12 -0500, John S <Sophi.2@invalid.org
ing resorts/lodges.

You don't see mass outbreaks of disease among skiiers, like you do
among cruisers. Those ships are basically you-cant-get-away petri

You don't read the news, do you?

Here in Germany, half of the infections could be traced back
to a couple that visited a carnival session while already
being ill.

Of the rest, most are skiers returned from either south Tyrol
(Italy) or Tyrol ( Austria). The single hot spot was Bad Ischgl
in Tyrol where one Barkeeper was linked to at least 40 cases.

It was first found out in Iceland (!) where they screened passengers
of a flight home and found > 6 people with fewer, all of them
from Bad Ischgl. The Tyrolians were notified but ignored it so they
could get the money for a full week more of the main season.


dishes, loaded with frail old people and, apparently, dangerous HVAC
and food prep systems. Lots of dense group activity, too.

Open water, and chair lifts, are pretty clean places. Person-to-person
contact with strangers is unusual on a ski slope, and can cost you
your lift ticket.

Skiing is not about skiing.

Then don't buy expensive boots or lift tickets.

It is about aprčs ski, and aprčs ski is
about heavy drinking and sex.

Gerhard

Well, don't do that. You can get herpes, syphilis, gonorrhea,
hepatitis, and any one of about 40 potentiality cancer-causing
viruses.

So, that's what is wrong with you? Your brain is fried?

I have always taken up with one woman at a time, in long-term
relationships. Smart and slim and cute ones with good jobs, who
weren't ever easy and who like geeky engineers. A side benefit is
being remarkably disease-free.

Not prowling around for fresh meat and fighting hangovers leaves more
time and energy for designing electronics.

It's a nice combination, one good woman and a lot of design. Try it
some time.

(Mo reads in bed and I burn up grid-paper pads scribbling circuits.
She thinks it's cute.)



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"
 
On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 7:42:24 AM UTC-4, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 19/03/20 11:32, mpm wrote:
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 10:10:50 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:


So what do you expect to see by the end of the month?

A: A notice of dismissal from employment. :)

And for those in rented accommodation, eviction :(

Many jurisdictions have already enacted laws to halt evictions. The economic effects will be hard to deal with for sure. We want to push back on the larger economic resources but not all of them will take the strain. Landlords have mortgage payments to make, banks need income to stay solvent, etc.., etc....

The big three auto makers have shut their factories and are offering to make ventilators to help us get through these times. Clearly they see it as a time that we all need to work together just like in war time. I think that by pulling together we can all get through.

--

Rick C.

-++++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-++++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 7:32:27 AM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 10:10:50 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:


So what do you expect to see by the end of the month?

A: A notice of dismissal from employment. :)

If that is the worst effect of this disease I'd say you got off pretty lucky.

--

Rick C.

-+++- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+++- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
> The big three auto makers have shut their factories and are offering to make ventilators to help us get through these times.

Need parts and materials from China. Same for their auto factories.

Seriously, ventilators are easy to make, but the operators are not so easy. For severe case, two tubes need to be inserted into patient's lung. One to pump air and one to draw fluid. The patient will resist, struggle and expel substances during the process. Many human operators got infected this way.

Now, go make a robot to insert tubes and make lots of money with this.
 
fredag den 20. marts 2020 kl. 00.52.26 UTC+1 skrev whit3rd:
On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 4:42:24 AM UTC-7, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 19/03/20 11:32, mpm wrote:
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 10:10:50 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:


So what do you expect to see by the end of the month?

A: A notice of dismissal from employment. :)

And for those in rented accommodation, eviction :(

Nope, there's no point in an eviction without a pool of other
prospective paying tenants. Some eviction-suspension proclamations
have already been issued, in fact, but most owners will just
add another month's rental to the bill and hope for interest on that
debt later on.

The real losers, will be college students; pay tuition, find an apartment or dorm,
then get no classes and are sent 'home' despite being on the hook for a lease.

here students have to study online, they have to sign on every morning and return completed assignments in the afternoon or they will be noted as absent
 
On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 10:32:45 AM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
I would not expect many evictions. With many people unemployed and unable to pay rent, evictions just means the property is vacant and not generating any income. Better to let the tenants to continue to live in the apartment with the understanding of rent being paid when the tenant can pay.

If I had rental property I would prefer the property was inhabited and thus somewhat protected from vandals.

You forgot to mention that the Courts will be closed anyway.
Nobody's going to be evicted and put out on the streets.

Even with a court order, you might have trouble finding a Sheriff to enforce it.
 
On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 4:42:24 AM UTC-7, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 19/03/20 11:32, mpm wrote:
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 10:10:50 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:


So what do you expect to see by the end of the month?

A: A notice of dismissal from employment. :)

And for those in rented accommodation, eviction :(

Nope, there's no point in an eviction without a pool of other
prospective paying tenants. Some eviction-suspension proclamations
have already been issued, in fact, but most owners will just
add another month's rental to the bill and hope for interest on that
debt later on.

The real losers, will be college students; pay tuition, find an apartment or dorm,
then get no classes and are sent 'home' despite being on the hook for a lease.
 
On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 10:58:02 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 5:02:04 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 1:29:35 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 3:55:46 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:

All anyone has to do is simply sit down with the numbers and look at the log graph of infection in the US or any other country (except for the few who seem to know how to deal with this). For the last two weeks in the US it has formed a straight line. Extrapolating that line clearly shows what will happen if nothing is done.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

It isn't a straight line, its an exponentially rising curve - both number of cases and the number of new cases per day, which is what is implied by exponential.

You need to read more carefully. I was talking about the log graph. The graph has a tab for display on a log scale.

If you'd written "logarithmic graph" it would have been unambiguous. A log graph can be a linear graph of the cases logged per day.

Wow, you can compete pretty well with Larkin when it comes to denial.

--

Rick C.

+---- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+---- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 5:02:04 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 1:29:35 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 3:55:46 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 11:08:27 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 5:44:05 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 18 Mar 2020 16:18:42 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

<snip>

As I read all the posts it seems most people are "getting it" even if a little late (I include myself in that group). There are a few who focus on silly things like if the hand cleaning dispenser at Walmart is a token effort or actually important. Then there is Larkin who seems to be in complete denial about this raging pandemic. All anyone has to do is simply sit down with the numbers and look at the log graph of infection in the US or any other country (except for the few who seem to know how to deal with this). For the last two weeks in the US it has formed a straight line. Extrapolating that line clearly shows what will happen if nothing is done.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

It isn't a straight line, its an exponentially rising curve - both number of cases and the number of new cases per day, which is what is implied by exponential.

You need to read more carefully. I was talking about the log graph. The graph has a tab for display on a log scale.

If you'd written "logarithmic graph" it would have been unambiguous. A log graph can be a linear graph of the cases logged per day.

The option of displaying a graph of the logarithm of the case numbers does seem to be new and most the graphs still don't offer it.

People who understand curve fitting don't much like graphs of the logarithms of numbers - for low numbers quantisation noise is problem, and for high numbers small deviations from the "straight line" are minimised.

<snip - Rick was wasting bandwidth here>

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
On Friday, March 20, 2020 at 2:09:02 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 10:58:02 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 5:02:04 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 1:29:35 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 3:55:46 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:

All anyone has to do is simply sit down with the numbers and look at the log graph of infection in the US or any other country (except for the few who seem to know how to deal with this). For the last two weeks in the US it has formed a straight line. Extrapolating that line clearly shows what will happen if nothing is done.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

It isn't a straight line, its an exponentially rising curve - both number of cases and the number of new cases per day, which is what is implied by exponential.

You need to read more carefully. I was talking about the log graph. The graph has a tab for display on a log scale.

If you'd written "logarithmic graph" it would have been unambiguous. A log graph can be a linear graph of the cases logged per day.

Wow, you can compete pretty well with Larkin when it comes to denial.

You seem to be doing even better.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
On 18/03/2020 23:33, mpm wrote:
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 11:26:15 AM UTC-4,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Most people, especially vigorous young people (who are most of the
skiers) get mild or asymptomatic cases of coronavirus.

There was a lady on TV news today claiming the young may not be as
"in the clear" as previously thought.

It may well depend on the general health and fitness of the nation.

In a country like Germany where people are mostly lean and fit they have
had a much lower fatality rate than expected compared on Italy. Almost
all the UK fatalities so far have been of people with underlying health
conditions. The continental habit of kissing as a greeting may partially
explain the steeper rise in cases there than in the UK. The UK isn't
actually shown on this particular graph but its line is about 3/4 of the
gradient of USA and 2.5x the gradient of Japans.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/13/21178289/confirmed-coronavirus-cases-us-countries-italy-iran-singapore-hong-kong

The one with the UK on is behind a paywall.

The problem in the USA is that 30% of the population are obese and a
couple of percent with type II diabetes as well so your cohort of youn
gpeople with "underlying health conditions" is very much larger than in
a typical European country. Time will tell how it pans out.

I expect this means that if you are in the at risk group with a health
condition then you are in the same boat as the over 70's in the ROW.

I didn't catch her name, but she's speaking at the Presidential
briefings all the time. I assume she heads some agency, or works for
Johns-Hopkins, or something.

She said the early data coming out of Korea and China may not have
been sufficient to show younger folks were at lower risk, and then
went on to detail that we've had plenty of cases involving younger
adults.

I think the healthy adults at most risk are the medics on the front
line. They could potentially get exposed to a lethal dose that is able
to overwhelm their immune system if their PPE containment fails.

> Make of it what you will.

I expect that in a nation of junk food addicted couch potatoes the
effect of covid-19 is going to be rather unpleasant.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown
 
On Fri, 20 Mar 2020 13:50:18 +0000, Martin Brown
<'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 18/03/2020 23:33, mpm wrote:
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 11:26:15 AM UTC-4,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Most people, especially vigorous young people (who are most of the
skiers) get mild or asymptomatic cases of coronavirus.

There was a lady on TV news today claiming the young may not be as
"in the clear" as previously thought.

It may well depend on the general health and fitness of the nation.

In a country like Germany where people are mostly lean and fit they have
had a much lower fatality rate than expected compared on Italy. Almost
all the UK fatalities so far have been of people with underlying health
conditions. The continental habit of kissing as a greeting may partially
explain the steeper rise in cases there than in the UK. The UK isn't
actually shown on this particular graph but its line is about 3/4 of the
gradient of USA and 2.5x the gradient of Japans.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/13/21178289/confirmed-coronavirus-cases-us-countries-italy-iran-singapore-hong-kong

The one with the UK on is behind a paywall.

The problem in the USA is that 30% of the population are obese and a
couple of percent with type II diabetes as well so your cohort of youn
gpeople with "underlying health conditions" is very much larger than in
a typical European country. Time will tell how it pans out.

I expect this means that if you are in the at risk group with a health
condition then you are in the same boat as the over 70's in the ROW.

I didn't catch her name, but she's speaking at the Presidential
briefings all the time. I assume she heads some agency, or works for
Johns-Hopkins, or something.

She said the early data coming out of Korea and China may not have
been sufficient to show younger folks were at lower risk, and then
went on to detail that we've had plenty of cases involving younger
adults.

I think the healthy adults at most risk are the medics on the front
line. They could potentially get exposed to a lethal dose that is able
to overwhelm their immune system if their PPE containment fails.

Is there a dose-death relationship? If viral replication is
exponential inside a body, starting with more viruses just shifts the
time scale a bit. I guess just one virus is all it takes.

Make of it what you will.

I expect that in a nation of junk food addicted couch potatoes the
effect of covid-19 is going to be rather unpleasant.

I don't see many fat people around here. A lot of fit people biking
and running and spending money in gyms. We do have a lot of hispanics
and especially Pacific Islanders who are huge. I think they are not
genetically adapted to a European diet, lots of dairy and meat and
fat. They are not out biking and running.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"
 

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