Why You Must Act Now

[Winfield Hill]

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca


--
Thanks,
- Win

 

On 15 Mar 2020 19:26:36 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com>
wrote:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca

"It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed."

There was a piece in the NY Times this morning projecting that 100
million, or maybe 200 million, Americans will catch this virus. So
far, the number is reported around 4K, about 13 PPM. The chart on your
link shows only 400 cases in the US, about 1 PPM.

In China, the official infection count is about 80K, out of a
population of 1.4 billion.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[Rick C]

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 10:52:52 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca


--
Thanks,
- Win

Good article and very important information. Unfortunately many people won't understand it. I wonder how many of them are running our response to the situation.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 11:20:58 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On 15 Mar 2020 19:26:36 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com
wrote:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca

"It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed."

There was a piece in the NY Times this morning projecting that 100
million, or maybe 200 million, Americans will catch this virus. So
far, the number is reported around 4K, about 13 PPM. The chart on your
link shows only 400 cases in the US, about 1 PPM.

In China, the official infection count is about 80K, out of a
population of 1.4 billion.

Why is it that Larkin posts disconnected facts and says nothing about them? He clearly either thinks he has said something about these facts, or his intent is to not say anything and let others fill in the blanks as it suits them.

Trump does that a lot too. He says some tidbit which often isn't even a complete sentence or thought. String a few of them together and it seems like he is saying something, but he's not actually said a single thing.

The article Win linked to contains a lot of very useful and revealing information. It's the sort of stuff that Edward would have liked to have provided, but he was too busy trolling chat rooms about bio-research labs in Wuhan. Turns out Edward was totally right in a few areas.

I would have expected other countries to have seen what happened in China and learned from it. That doesn't seem to be happening and every country has to learn the same lessons, each in their own way. At least in this country the states can take action without waiting for the federal government. Many are shutting down schools and prohibiting public gatherings of any size. But it looks like that won't be enough. I'm not sure what will need to happen or who will do it for the US to contain this infection like China did.

I guess a good start is to fix the hand cleaning station at Walmart. But clearly we need to wait until the infection rate is well above 13 PPM. I wonder what infection rate will be enough to trigger an immune response from the country?

Too bad an engineering group doesn't have people who know how to do the math for exponential increases.

--

Rick C.

- Get 10,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 2:36:58 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 11:20:58 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On 15 Mar 2020 19:26:36 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com
wrote:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca

"It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed."

There was a piece in the NY Times this morning projecting that 100
million, or maybe 200 million, Americans will catch this virus. So
far, the number is reported around 4K, about 13 PPM. The chart on your
link shows only 400 cases in the US, about 1 PPM.

In China, the official infection count is about 80K, out of a
population of 1.4 billion.

Why is it that Larkin posts disconnected facts and says nothing about them? He clearly either thinks he has said something about these facts, or his intent is to not say anything and let others fill in the blanks as it suits them.

<snip>

> Too bad an engineering group doesn't have people who know how to do the math for exponential increases.

Quite a few of us can do it. It's quite a while now since I pointed out that the - initially exponential - increase in case numbers in Wuhan had started rolling off and that the curve had started to look more like a logistic curve.

The problem with that - for mathematical modelling - is that the initial curve had reflected about three infections from each new case in the roughly five days between the new case becoming infections and starting to look sick - and the decline in the rate of increase reflected many fewer infections from each new case - social distancing meant that anybody who got infected after it had been brought in only had a limited chance (perhaps 30% to 50%) to infect anybody else before they started showing signs of disease and got isolated.

Plugging that change in the process into your mathematical model is tricky.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[John Robertson]

On 2020/03/15 7:26 p.m., Winfield Hill wrote:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

(fixed broken link above, but wrapping will likely tear it apart again
so I made a...)


TinyURL version of Winfield's original link:

https://tinyurl.com/tomaspueyo-Coronavirus

I expect that Mr. Pueyo has done his due diligence, as it appears to be
valid information based on what I have seen elsewhere on CDC and other
valid sites.

John :-#(#

 

Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com> wrote in
news:r4mo4s07rk@drn.newsguy.com:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will
-die- f4d3d9cd99ca

Place a < and a > around your links... please.

<https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-
die- f4d3d9cd99ca>

Works better that way in a Usenet client or Internet browser.

 

[John Robertson]

On 2020/03/15 11:10 p.m., DecadentLinuxUserNumeroUno@decadence.org wrote:

Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com> wrote in
news:r4mo4s07rk@drn.newsguy.com:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will
-die- f4d3d9cd99ca



Place a < and a > around your links... please.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-
die- f4d3d9cd99ca

Works better that way in a Usenet client or Internet browser.

Well, no, the "<" ">" didn't work any better.

John :-#(#

 

On 15 Mar 2020 19:26:36 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com>
wrote:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca

Previously we had all kinds of climate alarmists.

Now we have all kinds of corona alarmists

 

upsidedown@downunder.com wrote in
news:v3au6f99h6p9fkhvu9kq5n2eude9sa825v@4ax.com:

On 15 Mar 2020 19:26:36 -0700, Winfield Hill
winfieldhill@yahoo.com> wrote:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will
-die- f4d3d9cd99ca

Previously we had all kinds of climate alarmists.

Now we have all kinds of corona alarmists

You have gotten that all downside up over, man.

Make a pineapple downside up cake.

 

John Robertson <spam@flippers.com> wrote in
news:6_qdnRheKdXzg_LDnZ2dnUU7-bGdnZ2d@giganews.com:

On 2020/03/15 11:10 p.m., DecadentLinuxUserNumeroUno@decadence.org
wrote:
Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com> wrote in
news:r4mo4s07rk@drn.newsguy.com:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-wi
ll -die- f4d3d9cd99ca



Place a < and a > around your links... please.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-wi
ll- die- f4d3d9cd99ca

Works better that way in a Usenet client or Internet browser.


Well, no, the "<" ">" didn't work any better.

John :-#(#

AAAhhh! You are right!

<https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-
die- f4d3d9cd99ca>

Me try. Could be a news client thing.

 

John Robertson <spam@flippers.com> wrote in
news:6_qdnRleKdVMgfLDnZ2dnUU7-bHNnZ2d@giganews.com:

On 2020/03/15 7:26 p.m., Winfield Hill wrote:
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-wil
l-die-f4d3d9cd99ca



(fixed broken link above, but wrapping will likely tear it apart
again so I made a...)


TinyURL version of Winfield's original link:

https://tinyurl.com/tomaspueyo-Coronavirus

I expect that Mr. Pueyo has done his due diligence, as it appears
to be valid information based on what I have seen elsewhere on CDC
and other valid sites.

John :-#(#

Yeah... All Trump did was his Doo Doo Dilligence. He held another
rally and barked out blames. He really is a big pile of Doo Doo!

THEN he ACTED like HE ACTED promptly. The travel restriction thing
is all he has. After that he started the "common cold" "it will go
away" thing. Then, it came knocking...

 

[Rob]

Bill Sloman <bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:

Too bad an engineering group doesn't have people who know how to do the math for exponential increases.

Quite a few of us can do it. It's quite a while now since I pointed out that the - initially exponential - increase in case numbers in Wuhan had started rolling off and that the curve had started to look more like a logistic curve.

OF COURSE any exponential growth curve is always going to flatten at some
point, only economists believe in exponential growth.

However, the reason that those curves do not keep growing exponentially
for a while in cases of viral infections like this is not as much that
the actual number of infections stops increasing, but that the capacity
of the medical system to test for and count the infections gets saturated.

 

[Martin Brown]

On 16/03/2020 03:20, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On 15 Mar 2020 19:26:36 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com
wrote:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca

"It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed."

He is being overly pessimistic there (although the US is actually blind
to its true infection levels due to inadequate testing capability).

If the infection growth rate remains at the present daily value then the
daily case count increases with day number N like 1.4^N going forward.

That means a roughly a million times more cases in about 40 days time.

If we can use social distancing to get the daily growth factor down to
1.2 or 1.3 then the corresponding figures are much better. Tens of
thousands in the best case and a much more manageable broad hump.

US immigration appeared to be trying for the Guinness Book of records
for how many people they could infect with their dumb stunt yesterday.

There was a piece in the NY Times this morning projecting that 100
million, or maybe 200 million, Americans will catch this virus. So
far, the number is reported around 4K, about 13 PPM. The chart on your
link shows only 400 cases in the US, about 1 PPM.

The infection growth rate in a free society before any lock down
constraints are put on it is about 1.4^day_no or roughly 10^week_no. You
can see this in the graphs for Italy, France, Spain and the UK. The UK
graph actually looks *too* perfectly exponential growth for my liking.

It remains to be seen exactly how the curve will change in the UK as
various measures are brought into play. There will be a lag of about 5
days for the latency of the virus before we can see their effects.

In China, the official infection count is about 80K, out of a
population of 1.4 billion.

But the draconian measures they used to halt the spread will have to be
taken off at some point and then the thing may well take off again. The
biggest problem is that no-one has any worthwhile immunity to this novel
virus that has only recently jumped species. No vaccine is in sight.

I think the UK government is probably doing the right thing based on
their excellent scientific advice but they are in danger of being blown
off course by panicking tabloid headlines.

In healthy adults the disease is very unpleasant but not normally life
threatening unless you are very unlucky. This is a novel highly
infective disease that mostly kills the elderly and infirm with
pre-existing health conditions and the odd very unlucky medic.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 8:41:37 PM UTC+11, Rob wrote:

Bill Sloman <bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:
Too bad an engineering group doesn't have people who know how to do the math for exponential increases.

Quite a few of us can do it. It's quite a while now since I pointed out that the - initially exponential - increase in case numbers in Wuhan had started rolling off and that the curve had started to look more like a logistic curve.

OF COURSE any exponential growth curve is always going to flatten at some
point, only economists believe in exponential growth.

However, the reason that those curves do not keep growing exponentially
for a while in cases of viral infections like this is not as much that
the actual number of infections stops increasing, but that the capacity
of the medical system to test for and count the infections gets saturated.

There are all sorts of reasons why curves don't shown persistent exponential growth.

The one thing the medical system (or at least medical systems outside of the US) seem to be able to do is to get hold of lots of virus testing kits and use them.

Wuhan province was doing a lot more virus testing after the new infections per day started dropping than it was earlier.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[John S]

On 3/15/2020 9:26 PM, Winfield Hill wrote:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca

Thanks for that Win. Excellent article, and I like the fact that he
applied math to make sensible approximations rather than just hand waving.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 10:18:34 PM UTC+11, Martin Brown wrote:

On 16/03/2020 03:20, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On 15 Mar 2020 19:26:36 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com
wrote:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca

"It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed."

He is being overly pessimistic there (although the US is actually blind
to its true infection levels due to inadequate testing capability).

If the infection growth rate remains at the present daily value then the
daily case count increases with day number N like 1.4^N going forward.

That means a roughly a million times more cases in about 40 days time.

If we can use social distancing to get the daily growth factor down to
1.2 or 1.3 then the corresponding figures are much better. Tens of
thousands in the best case and a much more manageable broad hump.

Social distancing can do better than that, and seems to have done so in Hubei Province.

The critical factor is the number of people each newly infected person manages to infect before their infection becomes obvious (usually after about five days) and they go into isolation.

It's about three people in those five days with typical social interactions..

With good enough social distancing, it looks as if it can be got down to about one half or one third of a person, and the number of new cases per day shrinks rather than increases.

That translate into a much smaller number of people infected overall - the hump is not so much wider as smaller.

US immigration appeared to be trying for the Guinness Book of records
for how many people they could infect with their dumb stunt yesterday.

There was a piece in the NY Times this morning projecting that 100
million, or maybe 200 million, Americans will catch this virus. So
far, the number is reported around 4K, about 13 PPM. The chart on your
link shows only 400 cases in the US, about 1 PPM.

The infection growth rate in a free society before any lock down
constraints are put on it is about 1.4^day_no or roughly 10^week_no. You
can see this in the graphs for Italy, France, Spain and the UK. The UK
graph actually looks *too* perfectly exponential growth for my liking.

It remains to be seen exactly how the curve will change in the UK as
various measures are brought into play. There will be a lag of about 5
days for the latency of the virus before we can see their effects.

In China, the official infection count is about 80K, out of a
population of 1.4 billion.

But the draconian measures they used to halt the spread will have to be
taken off at some point and then the thing may well take off again.

Not if people keep on paying attention.

> The biggest problem is that no-one has any worthwhile immunity to this novel virus that has only recently jumped species. No vaccine is in sight.

At least one has just gone into preliminary testing. Molecular biology has new technology to offer, and at least some people are trying to get to a vaccine faster than the traditional approaches could manage.

I think the UK government is probably doing the right thing based on
their excellent scientific advice but they are in danger of being blown
off course by panicking tabloid headlines.

In healthy adults the disease is very unpleasant but not normally life
threatening unless you are very unlucky. This is a novel highly
infective disease that mostly kills the elderly and infirm with
pre-existing health conditions and the odd very unlucky medic.

Nobody under nine seems to have died of it. For people in my age group - 70 to 80 it seems to kill 10% and it goes up to 15% if you are over 80.

Most of the data come from China, and smoking is more popular there - if you have smoked all your life (and been exposed to a lot of air pollution) it wouldn't help.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Sun, 15 Mar 2020 23:29:36 -0700, John Robertson <spam@flippers.com>
wrote:

On 2020/03/15 7:26 p.m., Winfield Hill wrote:
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca



(fixed broken link above, but wrapping will likely tear it apart again
so I made a...)


TinyURL version of Winfield's original link:

https://tinyurl.com/tomaspueyo-Coronavirus

I expect that Mr. Pueyo has done his due diligence, as it appears to be
valid information based on what I have seen elsewhere on CDC and other
valid sites.

John :-#(#

He said this on March 10:

It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.
It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.

"A matter of days" is up. The first week is almost over. We have 3700
confirmed cases in the US so far, 68 deaths. On a normal day in the
US, about 10K people die.

This may be a more serious than the usual flu, or maybe not, but the
hysteria level is unprecedented.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 10:52:52 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca


--
Thanks,
- Win

Hysterical nonsense - he's using the sitting duck theory wherein people are oblivious to the danger and go on about life as usual, and that's certainly NOT the case. The virus has been circulating in the U.S. since at least October, and any deaths have been attributed to influenza. Suddenly, when the test kit becomes available, people are dying of corona left and right. Speaking of tests, someone needs to get on the ball and develop an ELISA for this virus. This testing methodology is about 10-25 % the cost of a PCR, the type they're now using, and it doesn't require a sophisticated lab to process the results. Sampling is a pin prick and they can really go to town assaying the entire population of the world if they want to. Singapore is about 90% of the way there but haven't developed anything scalable to commercial yet.

 

On Mon, 16 Mar 2020 11:18:29 +0000, Martin Brown
<'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 16/03/2020 03:20, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On 15 Mar 2020 19:26:36 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com
wrote:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-
f4d3d9cd99ca

"It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed."

He is being overly pessimistic there (although the US is actually blind
to its true infection levels due to inadequate testing capability).

If the infection growth rate remains at the present daily value then the
daily case count increases with day number N like 1.4^N going forward.

That means a roughly a million times more cases in about 40 days time.

Let's see.

If we can use social distancing to get the daily growth factor down to
1.2 or 1.3 then the corresponding figures are much better. Tens of
thousands in the best case and a much more manageable broad hump.

US immigration appeared to be trying for the Guinness Book of records
for how many people they could infect with their dumb stunt yesterday.

There was a piece in the NY Times this morning projecting that 100
million, or maybe 200 million, Americans will catch this virus. So
far, the number is reported around 4K, about 13 PPM. The chart on your
link shows only 400 cases in the US, about 1 PPM.

The infection growth rate in a free society before any lock down
constraints are put on it is about 1.4^day_no or roughly 10^week_no. You
can see this in the graphs for Italy, France, Spain and the UK. The UK
graph actually looks *too* perfectly exponential growth for my liking.

What's also increasing exponentially is the availability of testing
kits.

It remains to be seen exactly how the curve will change in the UK as
various measures are brought into play. There will be a lag of about 5
days for the latency of the virus before we can see their effects.

In China, the official infection count is about 80K, out of a
population of 1.4 billion.

But the draconian measures they used to halt the spread will have to be
taken off at some point and then the thing may well take off again.

Yes. There will be islands of infection that can reseed the country
for many months, maybe years. If they lock down for a year, people
will starve to death.



The

biggest problem is that no-one has any worthwhile immunity to this novel
virus that has only recently jumped species. No vaccine is in sight.

I think the UK government is probably doing the right thing based on
their excellent scientific advice but they are in danger of being blown
off course by panicking tabloid headlines.

The US press, and TV news, and internet, are hyperbolic on this. There
was Climate Change, then the Mueller/Russia thing, then impeachment,
now this. Single-subject hysterical monoculture.

In healthy adults the disease is very unpleasant but not normally life
threatening unless you are very unlucky. This is a novel highly
infective disease that mostly kills the elderly and infirm with
pre-existing health conditions and the odd very unlucky medic.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"