G
George Herold
Guest
On Friday, June 21, 2019 at 9:00:08 AM UTC-4, upsid...@downunder.com wrote:
Have you seen this?
https://xkcd.com/1732/
GH
On Fri, 21 Jun 2019 04:27:49 -0700 (PDT), Bill Sloman
bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:
On Friday, June 21, 2019 at 6:29:38 AM UTC+2, upsid...@downunder.com wrote:
On Thu, 20 Jun 2019 15:49:15 -0700, John Larkin
jjlarkin@highland_snip_technology.com> wrote:
On Thu, 20 Jun 2019 12:54:19 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:
On Monday, June 17, 2019 at 5:37:53 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
We're supposed to rework the economy of the entire world based on
climate simulations.
No, based on observations (simulations are the all-terms-considered
final step, NOT THE BASE). Several technologies, but NOT the
world (and not 'the economy') will have to change.
The claim you just made, wrenches ALL those nouns out of their proper meanings.
What could possibly go wrong with that?
Do you have mind picture, or a simulation in mind? Why not? How else can you support an answer
to that question?
Imagination and simulations are ways of dealing with the future. If you
don't use them, you don't plan, and folk who DO will outcompete you.
In a complex, nonlinear, chaotic simulation, you can tune its
parameters to give any results you want. Climate sims are obviously
tuned to hindcast accurately (they won't get published if they don't)
but that doesn't make them predictive.
I am not so sure about the hindcasts.
For example how does the simulation explain the Atlantic warm period
(Holocene climate optimum) in which some tree species grow at the
Arctic Circle (based on tree trunks found in the bottom of lakes)
while currently the most northern areas are the southern Scandinavia.
For that they need information on deep ocean currents, which the Argo buoys are still collecting.
We know about the effect of the El Nino/La Nina alternation on local and global climate because they happen over a few year.
The Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_multidecadal_oscillation
is a lot slower, and wasn't named until 1993.
That doesn't explain the warm period from 9000 to 5000 years ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_climatic_optimum
Have you seen this?
https://xkcd.com/1732/
GH
It is interesting to note that in the beginning of this period, the
sea level rose by 60 m to current level apparently due to melting
glaciers. Since a lot of energy was lost to melting ice, the air would
have ben even warmer.
It does seem to reflect ocean currents moving around. We can see the surface currents but the return currents flowing in the depths of the oceans are less easily observed (which is why the Argo Buoy observations were set under way).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argo_(oceanography)