US COVID-19 Infection Rate Still not Peaked

[Ricky C]

The infection rate continues at around 30,000 new cases per day with no drop detectable by objective measures.

So if we still are not yet reducing the rate of infections and we have an ever growing death rate, how can we even be giving consideration to opening businesses, churches, schools or other public places?

What else do we need to do to get the infection rate to drop... or more accurately, what are we doing wrong?

Using this site to view info by country I don't see any areas that are better or worse than others in regards to the change in the rate of new infections.

https://geodacenter.github.io/covid/map.html#

A very few counties are noticeably dropping, but they are mostly low numbers to begin with. A few places still have rising new infection rates like San Francisco, Chicago and New York. What's up with that???

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Ricky C]

So if the new infection rate is not dropping for the US as a whole, why are people clamoring for reopening the country for infection? Do people want this disease to spread wildly?

I saw pictures today of some of the rallies. Many were not practicing measures to prevent infection. I would say we can expect a spike in the infection rates in a week or so, but I don't think there really were enough people there to make a difference.

The new infection rate has reached a plateau. But we don't know if this is a peak or not. With states starting to reopen currently closed facilities, we may see a resurgence even before we see a down turn in new cases per day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVwrCOTSaaQ

To me opening the country up at this time is like playing Russian roulette with an automatic.

--

Rick C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[mpm]

On Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 11:51:12 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:

Just stirring the pot.

See if Slowman's anti-gun saliva response kicks in.

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4b6GvszlkR0&feature=youtu.be

For the record, I'm not a fan of, nor do I even think it remotely appropriate, to participate in a "Let's re-open the economy" rally like this while being openly armed with semi-automatic rifles. While I'm sure the situation is financially dire for lots of folks living paycheck-to-paycheck (etc..), we're nowhere near the point where the guns "have" to come out. To me, it's a stupid show of force for no reason.

 

[Ricky C]

On Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 8:40:49 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:

On Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 11:51:12 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:

Just stirring the pot.

See if Slowman's anti-gun saliva response kicks in.

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4b6GvszlkR0&feature=youtu.be

For the record, I'm not a fan of, nor do I even think it remotely appropriate, to participate in a "Let's re-open the economy" rally like this while being openly armed with semi-automatic rifles. While I'm sure the situation is financially dire for lots of folks living paycheck-to-paycheck (etc..), we're nowhere near the point where the guns "have" to come out. To me, it's a stupid show of force for no reason.

How many of those people protesting do you think actually understand what is meant by "exponential rate of growth"?

There's a reason why we don't let everyone make every decision for themselves, but have laws that apply to everyone.

I get that people are tired of what's going on. I'm fucking sick of it. But I don't want to catch the virus and I have friends who I don't want to catch the virus. Some of them don't have much choice. If their company tells them to come to the office, they have to go to the office. One is working in food distribution. He was working from home, but only part time. Now that Maryland is in shut down he works from home every day. He should stay there until we get the new infection rates at least down to low double digits.

Instead of people protesting that we need to open up businesses, how about protesting that we aren't doing enough to stop the spread of this virus? From the time China had their outbreak grow rapidly on Jan 22, to the time they had the new infection rate under 100 a day was just over 6 weeks!!! The US infection rate was significant 6 weeks ago and we are still seeing 30,000 new infections per day!!!

Yeah, this is a perfect time to open things up and let the virus roam free! I guess there are a lot of people who don't realize the isolation measures are the only thing preventing us from seeing the exponential growth resume.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYQyBnvJZhQ

--

Rick C.

-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 10:40:49 AM UTC+10, mpm wrote:

On Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 11:51:12 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:

Just stirring the pot.

See if Sloman's anti-gun saliva response kicks in.

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4b6GvszlkR0&feature=youtu.be

For the record, I'm not a fan of, nor do I even think it remotely appropriate, to participate in a "Let's re-open the economy" rally like this while being openly armed with semi-automatic rifles. While I'm sure the situation is financially dire for lots of folks living paycheck-to-paycheck (etc..), we're nowhere near the point where the guns "have" to come out. To me, it's a stupid show of force for no reason.

It's actually a show of force by people who are demonstrating that they they can't think straight.

The whole point about sensible gun-control laws is that they don't stop people owning guns, they merely keep them out of the hands of people who would use them for socially undesirable purposes - the kind of people who would have been kicked out of a well-regulated militia because they couldn't be trusted not to shoot other members of the militia because they were silly or careless.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Clifford Heath]

On 20/4/20 11:10 am, Ricky C wrote:

On Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 8:40:49 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
For the record, I'm not a fan of, nor do I even think it remotely appropriate, to participate in a "Let's re-open the economy" rally like this while being openly armed with semi-automatic rifles.

How many of those people protesting do you think actually understand what is meant by "exponential rate of growth"?

There's a succinct description of this:

National suicide by innumeracy.

CH

 

[John Larkin]

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 22:48:38 +1000, Clifford Heath
<no.spam@please.net> wrote:

On 20/4/20 11:10 am, Ricky C wrote:
On Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 8:40:49 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
For the record, I'm not a fan of, nor do I even think it remotely appropriate, to participate in a "Let's re-open the economy" rally like this while being openly armed with semi-automatic rifles.

How many of those people protesting do you think actually understand what is meant by "exponential rate of growth"?

There's a succinct description of this:

National suicide by innumeracy.

CH

How many people here think that physical processes can grow
exponentially forever?

Maybe name some.

I'm spicing and testing a circuit now that has exponential growth.
Hope that I don't get a nuclear explosion that kills everyone.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-04-20 14:25, John Larkin wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 22:48:38 +1000, Clifford Heath
no.spam@please.net> wrote:

On 20/4/20 11:10 am, Ricky C wrote:
On Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 8:40:49 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
For the record, I'm not a fan of, nor do I even think it remotely appropriate, to participate in a "Let's re-open the economy" rally like this while being openly armed with semi-automatic rifles.

How many of those people protesting do you think actually understand what is meant by "exponential rate of growth"?

There's a succinct description of this:

National suicide by innumeracy.

CH

How many people here think that physical processes can grow
exponentially forever?

Maybe name some.

Economic growth has been exponential for quite a long time, but of
course sustaining that requires continually moving the goal posts, i.e.
the definition of economic output.

I'm spicing and testing a circuit now that has exponential growth.
Hope that I don't get a nuclear explosion that kills everyone.

Don't worry, CERN created microscopic black holes that are eating the
Earth already.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

[whit3rd]

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 11:25:37 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

How many people here think that physical processes can grow
exponentially forever?

If one allows negative exponents, an RC decay is exponential virtually
forever (ignoring quantum and thermal effects). So, a physical
process that 'grows exponentially forever' can be an RC decay, viewed
in the inverse voltage as the dependent variable.

Count me in.
Spice it if you don't believe it.

 

[John Larkin]

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 13:24:28 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
wrote:

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 11:25:37 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

How many people here think that physical processes can grow
exponentially forever?

If one allows negative exponents, an RC decay is exponential virtually
forever (ignoring quantum and thermal effects). So, a physical
process that 'grows exponentially forever' can be an RC decay, viewed
in the inverse voltage as the dependent variable.

Count me in.
Spice it if you don't believe it.

So grows = decays now?

Hang on to that resume for a while.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

[Clifford Heath]

On 21/4/20 4:25 am, John Larkin wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 22:48:38 +1000, Clifford Heath
no.spam@please.net> wrote:

On 20/4/20 11:10 am, Ricky C wrote:
On Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 8:40:49 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
For the record, I'm not a fan of, nor do I even think it remotely appropriate, to participate in a "Let's re-open the economy" rally like this while being openly armed with semi-automatic rifles.

How many of those people protesting do you think actually understand what is meant by "exponential rate of growth"?

There's a succinct description of this:

National suicide by innumeracy.

CH

How many people here think that physical processes can grow
exponentially forever?

"Exponential" is the popular term (used incorrectly) for the initial
growth of the sigmoid curve defined by the logistic function:

<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function>

Enough with your childishness.

Now rather than quibbling about which word we should use to describe the
growth function, can we please address the question:

"How many dead (or lifelong debilitated) people is too many?"

Or don't discuss it, if you don't want to. The USA has turned
irrevocably into a practical demonstration, for those like JL who prefer
experiment to analysis. To everyone's loss...

CH

 

[Clifford Heath]

On 21/4/20 4:25 am, John Larkin wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 22:48:38 +1000, Clifford Heath
no.spam@please.net> wrote:

On 20/4/20 11:10 am, Ricky C wrote:
On Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 8:40:49 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
For the record, I'm not a fan of, nor do I even think it remotely appropriate, to participate in a "Let's re-open the economy" rally like this while being openly armed with semi-automatic rifles.

How many of those people protesting do you think actually understand what is meant by "exponential rate of growth"?

There's a succinct description of this:

National suicide by innumeracy.

CH

How many people here think that physical processes can grow
exponentially forever?

Who mentioned "forever"? That was *you*, I think.

"Grow to an unacceptable level" is quite enough to worry about. By the
time you start to hit the limit on available resource (population in
this case) it's already *far too many*.

You keep raising this completely spurious "grow forever" thing, only
because you have *no better argument*.

As is obvious to every reasonable person reading your posts.

CH

 

On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 09:40:28 +1000, Clifford Heath
<no.spam@please.net> wrote:

On 21/4/20 4:25 am, John Larkin wrote:
On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 22:48:38 +1000, Clifford Heath
no.spam@please.net> wrote:

On 20/4/20 11:10 am, Ricky C wrote:
On Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 8:40:49 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
For the record, I'm not a fan of, nor do I even think it remotely appropriate, to participate in a "Let's re-open the economy" rally like this while being openly armed with semi-automatic rifles.

How many of those people protesting do you think actually understand what is meant by "exponential rate of growth"?

There's a succinct description of this:

National suicide by innumeracy.

CH

How many people here think that physical processes can grow
exponentially forever?

"Exponential" is the popular term (used incorrectly) for the initial
growth of the sigmoid curve defined by the logistic function:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

Enough with your childishness.

Of course I knew that, and was castigated for saying same. Nothing
grows exponentially forever, or even for very long. The 1918 flu was a
bell-shaped curve in most places, but with a steep chopped-off tail.
The curves that I'm seeing for this one tend to have long tails.

Now rather than quibbling about which word we should use to describe the
growth function, can we please address the question:

"How many dead (or lifelong debilitated) people is too many?"

Sadly, nobody lives forever. We constantly trade lifespan for other
things. My question has been, what's special about this virus? On the
scale of winter killers, it's modest. Even this years seasonal
influenza is killing more people than C19 but we didn't shut down the
economy in much worse flu years.

And deaths are being counted as C19 by assumption only.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 09:31:02 +1000, Clifford Heath
<no.spam@please.net> wrote:

On 21/4/20 4:25 am, John Larkin wrote:
On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 22:48:38 +1000, Clifford Heath
no.spam@please.net> wrote:

On 20/4/20 11:10 am, Ricky C wrote:
On Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 8:40:49 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
For the record, I'm not a fan of, nor do I even think it remotely appropriate, to participate in a "Let's re-open the economy" rally like this while being openly armed with semi-automatic rifles.

How many of those people protesting do you think actually understand what is meant by "exponential rate of growth"?

There's a succinct description of this:

National suicide by innumeracy.

CH

How many people here think that physical processes can grow
exponentially forever?

Who mentioned "forever"? That was *you*, I think.

"Grow to an unacceptable level" is quite enough to worry about. By the
time you start to hit the limit on available resource (population in
this case) it's already *far too many*.

You keep raising this completely spurious "grow forever" thing, only
because you have *no better argument*.

Well, several people told me that I didn't understand exponential
growth. When the slopes were already getting linear. Now they are
mostly flat or declining.

As is obvious to every reasonable person reading your posts.

CH

Antibody testing will tell what fraction of a closely confined
population will get it before it burns itself out. A few uncontrolled
experiments suggest something in maybe the 25% range, maybe less.

Countries that started Mid-February are typically a few weeks past
peak, and some are way down. Start to peak looks like about a month.

Has anyone noticed the periodicities superimposed on many of the
new-case curves? Looks like about a week, and many show three or four
good bumps so far.

And there is sometimes a huge spike on the same day all across the
world.

The jhu site is great. Zoom up onto the USA on the map, then select
"incident rate" and "testing rate" and compare the dot patterns.

Seek and ye shall find.





--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[keith wright]

On Monday, 20 April 2020 19:44:53 UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

...
Sadly, nobody lives forever. We constantly trade lifespan for other
things. My question has been, what's special about this virus? On the
scale of winter killers, it's modest. Even this years seasonal
influenza is killing more people than C19 but we didn't shut down the
economy in much worse flu years.

See item number 4 that compares COVID and the flu.

https://medium.com/swlh/misinformation-goes-viral-1aad951e4492

 

[Clifford Heath]

On 21/4/20 12:44 pm, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 09:40:28 +1000, Clifford Heath
no.spam@please.net> wrote:
Now rather than quibbling about which word we should use to describe the
growth function, can we please address the question:
"How many dead (or lifelong debilitated) people is too many?"
My question has been, what's special about this virus? On the
scale of winter killers, it's modest.

No, it's not modest. It's *epic*, anywhere strict control hasn't
occurred. It's bad enough where control has been only localised or only
partly effective.

And we just don't know how long any immunity lasts. We don't know if
there will *ever* be a vaccine - we have never succeeded in making an
effective vaccine to *any* corona virus.

Eradication is the *only* goal for a nation that wants to continue to be
a member of a global society. Apparently, the USA has abandoned that
goal. Start defaulting on your debt to the Chinese and you won't even
have a shirt to wear.

Even this years seasonal
influenza is killing more people than C19 but we didn't shut down the
economy in much worse flu years.

Not here, it's not. So far this April Australia has had only 99
influenza cases, compared to 18,000 for the same period last year.

Bit of a reduction, isn't it?

Isolation works.

Clifford Heath.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:32:19 PM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 09:31:02 +1000, Clifford Heath
no.spam@please.net> wrote:

On 21/4/20 4:25 am, John Larkin wrote:
On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 22:48:38 +1000, Clifford Heath
no.spam@please.net> wrote:

On 20/4/20 11:10 am, Ricky C wrote:
On Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 8:40:49 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
For the record, I'm not a fan of, nor do I even think it remotely appropriate, to participate in a "Let's re-open the economy" rally like this while being openly armed with semi-automatic rifles.

How many of those people protesting do you think actually understand what is meant by "exponential rate of growth"?

There's a succinct description of this:

National suicide by innumeracy.

How many people here think that physical processes can grow
exponentially forever?

Who mentioned "forever"? That was *you*, I think.

"Grow to an unacceptable level" is quite enough to worry about. By the
time you start to hit the limit on available resource (population in
this case) it's already *far too many*.

You keep raising this completely spurious "grow forever" thing, only
because you have *no better argument*.

Well, several people told me that I didn't understand exponential
growth. When the slopes were already getting linear. Now they are
mostly flat or declining.

Your understanding of exponential growth clearly didn't extend to comprehending that a 46 per million chance of infection at the time wasn't going to grow to the 2,395 in a million chance you've got today.

You may have understood the concept, but you woefully failed to comprehend it's
real life implications.

As is obvious to every reasonable person reading your posts.


Antibody testing will tell what fraction of a closely confined
population will get it before it burns itself out. A few uncontrolled
experiments suggest something in maybe the 25% range, maybe less.

John Larkin's grasp of what those "experiments" might have told him is remarkably defective.

The virus doesn't "burn itself out". It infects enough people, giving them post-infection immunity to cut the rate of new infections per infected person to below one. For Covid-19, this has been claimed to hapen when 605 of the surviving population has been infected.

In the US that's about 186 million people, and six million dead.

Countries that started Mid-February are typically a few weeks past
peak, and some are way down. Start to peak looks like about a month.

Has anyone noticed the periodicities superimposed on many of the
new-case curves? Looks like about a week, and many show three or four
good bumps so far.

And there is sometimes a huge spike on the same day all across the
world.

The jhu site is great. Zoom up onto the USA on the map, then select
"incident rate" and "testing rate" and compare the dot patterns.

Seek and ye shall find.

It's a pity that John Larkin can't make sense of what he finds.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Ricky C]

On Monday, April 20, 2020 at 11:36:10 PM UTC-4, keith wright wrote:

On Monday, 20 April 2020 19:44:53 UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
...
Sadly, nobody lives forever. We constantly trade lifespan for other
things. My question has been, what's special about this virus? On the
scale of winter killers, it's modest. Even this years seasonal
influenza is killing more people than C19 but we didn't shut down the
economy in much worse flu years.


See item number 4 that compares COVID and the flu.

https://medium.com/swlh/misinformation-goes-viral-1aad951e4492

You know this is pointless, right? Larkin may or may not look at that info.. But if he does he most certainly won't see what we see.

What is really amazing about him is that he keeps tossing turds into the punch bowl without actually being interested in a real conversation. He is the truest form of a troll, all the while insulting and accusing others, posting half truths and just plain misinformation.

If he used more profanity he would be another Phil Allison.

--

Rick C.

-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:44:53 PM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 09:40:28 +1000, Clifford Heath
no.spam@please.net> wrote:

On 21/4/20 4:25 am, John Larkin wrote:
On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 22:48:38 +1000, Clifford Heath
no.spam@please.net> wrote:

On 20/4/20 11:10 am, Ricky C wrote:
On Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 8:40:49 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
For the record, I'm not a fan of, nor do I even think it remotely appropriate, to participate in a "Let's re-open the economy" rally like this while being openly armed with semi-automatic rifles.

How many of those people protesting do you think actually understand what is meant by "exponential rate of growth"?

There's a succinct description of this:

National suicide by innumeracy.

CH

How many people here think that physical processes can grow
exponentially forever?

"Exponential" is the popular term (used incorrectly) for the initial
growth of the sigmoid curve defined by the logistic function:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

Enough with your childishness.

Of course I knew that, and was castigated for saying same. Nothing
grows exponentially forever, or even for very long. The 1918 flu was a
bell-shaped curve in most places, but with a steep chopped-off tail.
The curves that I'm seeing for this one tend to have long tails.

The Spanish flu ended up infection some 27% of the world population, and quite few more people were immune to it because they survived an earlier infection with a less lethal strain of the same virus.

The Spanish flu did get bad enough to provoke quite a lot of lockdown.

None of the epidemics we've got running a the moment have got anywhere near infecting enough people to produce herd immunity. Where they kill enough people - New York is at 975 deaths per million population - they frighten enough people into effective self-isolation to slow down the new infection rate, but not enough to prevent a steady stream of new infections.

Now rather than quibbling about which word we should use to describe the
growth function, can we please address the question:

"How many dead (or lifelong debilitated) people is too many?"

Sadly, nobody lives forever. We constantly trade lifespan for other
things. My question has been, what's special about this virus? On the
scale of winter killers, it's modest.

As we have mentioned, you don't understand exponential growth.

It has already killed 170,439 people, which is already in the range of what season flu can do in a year. The US is still clocking up roughly 30,000 new cases a day, which means about a thousand extra deaths.

Even this years seasonal
influenza is killing more people than C19 but we didn't shut down the
economy in much worse flu years.

And deaths are being counted as C19 by assumption only.

Only in place where there aren't enough test kits. The USA has now got up to 12,167 test per million population. Even Russia has done better at 14,070..

Norway still leads the proper countries at 26,425. Germany is more typical at 20,629. Australia and New Zealand do seem close to ending the epidemic but have tested 17,020 and 18,562 per million respectively.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 14:01:45 +1000, Clifford Heath
<no.spam@please.net> wrote:

On 21/4/20 12:44 pm, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 09:40:28 +1000, Clifford Heath
no.spam@please.net> wrote:
Now rather than quibbling about which word we should use to describe the
growth function, can we please address the question:
"How many dead (or lifelong debilitated) people is too many?"
My question has been, what's special about this virus? On the
scale of winter killers, it's modest.

No, it's not modest. It's *epic*, anywhere strict control hasn't
occurred. It's bad enough where control has been only localised or only
partly effective.

And we just don't know how long any immunity lasts. We don't know if
there will *ever* be a vaccine - we have never succeeded in making an
effective vaccine to *any* corona virus.

Eradication is the *only* goal for a nation that wants to continue to be
a member of a global society. Apparently, the USA has abandoned that
goal. Start defaulting on your debt to the Chinese and you won't even
have a shirt to wear.

Even this years seasonal
influenza is killing more people than C19 but we didn't shut down the
economy in much worse flu years.

Not here, it's not. So far this April Australia has had only 99
influenza cases, compared to 18,000 for the same period last year.

Bit of a reduction, isn't it?

Isolation works.

Clifford Heath.

18K laboratory confirmed flu cases last season. 6K (lab confirmed?)
corona cases so far this season.

So what's special about corona? Why didn't Australia isolate and
prevent those 18K cases last season?

Will Australia isolate in the future for every flu or cold epidemic?




--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard