Up to two thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the n

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 12:11:34 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 8:46:34 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 10:59:51 PM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 7:30:46 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

There are no such previously healthy people in that age range dying from corona. Statistics are still being compiled, but almost all the victims have underlying conditions making them vulnerable to the virus. Then you stupidly assume everyone has a documented health history, and that's certainly not true for third world or people living in poverty, lower income or uninsured, or maybe just stupid people who don't give a damn, in the first world.

The example was a first world person.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52041709

You cite an unreliable source full of garbage.

The BBC is about as main stream as main media gets.

That woman never even tested positive for the virus and she actually died of heart attack. She looks like one of those anorexic types addicted to hydroxycut:

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/03/27/chloe-middleton-the-coronavirus-death-that-wasnt/

Spiked is rather less relaible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiked_(magazine)

You conveniently ignore the specifics of your example case. I think the latest buzz phrase for that is cognitive dissonance.

In this case it's more like ignoring politically motivated nut cases.

The cognitive dissonance would be all yours, if cognition had much to do with what you post.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/06/li-wenliang-chinese-doctor-who-sounded-alarm-on-coronavirus-dead-from-disease-at-34/

No telling what the real cause of death was. If he was overworked, which doctors are wont to do in an emergency, especially if he was suffering from extreme sleep deprivation, which is a really effective way to severely depress your immune response, then that would explain quite a lot. He should have known better. If you let any virus get the upper hand, pushing you too far into illness, you can't recover. I suspect that's what happened here.

I'm sure you think you know what happened on the other side of the world.
It wouldn't be wise to trust your medical judgement.

This particular doctor was not only working as a clinician but he was managing the entire response in his region. My explanation of cause of death is definitive.

Definitively imaginary.

was 34 when he died, and there's been no suggestion of any pre-existing condition there either.

The COVID-19 is merely giving the appearance of higher mortality because it is challenging unvaccinated people.

You aren't vaccinated against anything you can catch.

Actually yes you are. Your ignorance of the fundamentals of immunization tells me you just don;t give a shit.

In other words, immunisation doesn't work. The ignorance is all yours.

Immunization is all about increasing the speed of response to infection. That's how it works. Have you worked through a single textbook of immunology in your entire life? Don't bother answering, I know the answer.

Of course you do. It's the wrong answer, but it's the one you know.

You're nothing but an aggravating ignorant mouth who's been wrong about just every single half-assed statement you have made.

By which you mean I've disagreed with your ignorant half-assed statements.

LOL- my statements are not opinion.

Embedded wrong-headed opinions, which you haven't got enough sense to fact check.

Influenza is far more deadly to the unvaccinated as the recent history with new A-strain shows, with U.S death toll reaching 80,000 that we know of.

It seems to have a mortality rate of 0.1%. It kills a lot of people because you have to die of something eventually and you are quite likely to catch some new strain of flu - to which you aren't immune - when you are of an age for that to happen.

F__k you and your damned numbers, idiot. Those crap meta-statistics don't inform anything.

Nothing seems to inform you.

Corona seems to be competing for that record by being far more infectious.

It is suggested that flu has an R0 of about 1.3, and Covid-19 has an R0 between 2.5 and 3. That's more infectious, but measles has an R0 of about 15.

All that R0 and epidemic spread is a bunch of garbage under the present circumstances. It's just a bunch of misapplied 5th grade math for the most part anyway. It doesn't contribute anything constructive. The poorer nations, who have taken a much more simplified approach to reining in the spread, have been very successful. They don't waste their time on a bunch of government spokespeople parasites citing a bunch of useless stats and forecasts that change by the day.

Who would that be? In fact what seems to work is rigorous contact tracing and isolating anybody who might have got infected. South Korea got that to work without any lock-down, but lock-down does limit the number of contacts you have to isolate.

Since R0 is dependent on social behaviour, which varies a lot from person to person and from time to time, a single number is a fairly gross simplification, but it's good enough for explaining what going on.

Who gives a damn what's going on. Even the most primitive herd animals, as well as jungle dwelling baboons, to whom your intellect most closely matches at this point, know how to recognize a sick animal and stay clear.

The problem with Covid-19 is that you are infectious before you look sick.

The extra non-structural proteins coded into the genome slow down your immune response, so you start spreading the virus before you got enough antibodies for your immune system to kick in and make you look - and feel - sick.

You managed to misunderstand that fact severely enough to think that it was variant of HIV which destroys the immune system (rather slowly) rather than slowing down the immune response.

If you're strong enough, and that would be strong as in healthy enough to fend off infection, to survive a bout with the flu, you will almost certainly survive a bout with COVID-19.

If you want to bet your life on Fred Bloggs opinion, get yourself infected.

I wouldn't, but I'm 77, the age group where Covid-19 seems to have a 10% mortality rate.

You'll become infected eventually, so you might look into underlying health habits that make people survivors instead victims.

Getting vaccinated is the one that works best. Not getting infected is just good but harder to sustain.

You're not going to see a vaccine in your lifetime.

As a medical prophet or a medical expert you are equally unconvincing. Try to fool some other audience.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 10:21:12 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
..

As a medical prophet or a medical expert you are equally unconvincing. Try to fool some other audience.

Don't flatter yourself. It takes far, far less than a prophet or medical expert to refute your record ignorance.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[bitrex]

On 4/1/2020 3:07 PM, bitrex wrote:

Sir Wilfrid
Osler, the famous doctor, called pneumonia "the old man's
friend."  These days it's almost the only way to die that isn't
horrible, except for something sudden like getting hit by a bus or
suffering a massive stroke.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs




My late father passed from an internal hemorrhage of the bowel, aside
from the initial onset with modern medicine it seemed a rather peaceful
passing. The hospital staff initially thought he might have simply
severe allergies with a bit of blood in the cough (it happened in early
May) Sadly it was not that simple and at his age (91), an operation
unlikely to be recovered from.

As he didn't have a living will it was up to me to make the call as to
what would happen, and I called it. He was conscious but sedated enough
that the doctors considered me to be the authority on that. but didn't
seem able or willing to go one way or another, I never knew exactly what
he wanted. We chatted for quite a while before I made the decision and
at one point he sighed, chuckled and said "well I'm very old and maybe
it's time to pack it up?"

Took that as the cue to go ahead and inform the doctors. best I was
going to get from him in that condition I figured. Other than that on
the day before he passed he was fairly lucid and chatted about a wide
range of stuff and he cracked a few more jokes, as he was prone to do.
And that I 100% should not buy a used powerboat without getting it
checked out!  Eventually he went to sleep and the last rites were
performed. and he passed away early the next morning.

If he were here I am sure he would quip something like "I knew my ass
would get me in trouble eventually."

The day you've got a bunch of doctors and family members all looking at
you to make calls like that is a day you know what real power feels
like. Is being Mr. Powerful always fun and rewarding? Nah, I wouldn't
characterize my experience of it that way.

 

[bitrex]

On 3/29/2020 5:46 PM, Phil Hobbs wrote:

On 2020-03-29 16:23, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-29 15:25, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:34:19 +0100, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 29/03/20 16:35, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific
adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and
epidemics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/


So what? Take a thousand patients with terminal cancer and less than 6
months to live. Stand them in the middle of the road and let 10 drunk
drivers run them down. Are you saying we shouldn't blame the drunk
drivers because the patients were going to die anyway?

We are all going to die, so it seems we shouldn't be concerned about
how
it happens if we don't reach our expected natural individual lifespan.

Of course, the newspaper article was shortened, so we don't know
exactly
what was said or if there were any caveats.

What if the average number of people are killed this year by colds and
flu, but we gave this virus a name and a lot of testing and a lot of
publicity? Why don't we launch a similar massive effort to save lives
every year, from every virus?

We have 2300 corona19-blamed deaths in the USA so far. We have 20-50K
flu deaths so far. For the average old person dying of complications
of a cold or flu, we probably don't do a PCR analysis of what the
virus was.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#United_States

The data collected on colds and flu is shockingly bad, considering
that a lot of people die.

Sir Wilfrid
Osler, the famous doctor, called pneumonia "the old man's
friend."  These days it's almost the only way to die that isn't
horrible, except for something sudden like getting hit by a bus or
suffering a massive stroke.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

My late father passed from an internal hemorrhage of the bowel, aside
from the initial onset with modern medicine it seemed a rather peaceful
passing. The hospital staff initially thought he might have simply
severe allergies with a bit of blood in the cough (it happened in early
May) Sadly it was not that simple and at his age (91), an operation
unlikely to be recovered from.

As he didn't have a living will it was up to me to make the call as to
what would happen, and I called it. He was conscious but sedated enough
that the doctors considered me to be the authority on that. but didn't
seem able or willing to go one way or another, I never knew exactly what
he wanted. We chatted for quite a while before I made the decision and
at one point he sighed, chuckled and said "well I'm very old and maybe
it's time to pack it up?"

Took that as the cue to go ahead and inform the doctors. best I was
going to get from him in that condition I figured. Other than that on
the day before he passed he was fairly lucid and chatted about a wide
range of stuff and he cracked a few more jokes, as he was prone to do.
And that I 100% should not buy a used powerboat without getting it
checked out! Eventually he went to sleep and the last rites were
performed. and he passed away early the next morning.

If he were here I am sure he would quip something like "I knew my ass
would get me in trouble eventually."

 

[Rick C]

On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 6:23:53 PM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:

On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 12:08:41 PM UTC-7, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 9:34:06 AM UTC-4, Michael Terrell wrote:
On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 8:55:51 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-30 12:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:01:24 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 10:58:34 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 08:21:55 +0100, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 29/03/20 21:41, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 3:25:31 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:34:19 +0100, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 29/03/20 16:35, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and epidemics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

So what? Take a thousand patients with terminal cancer and less than 6
months to live. Stand them in the middle of the road and let 10 drunk
drivers run them down. Are you saying we shouldn't blame the drunk
drivers because the patients were going to die anyway?

We are all going to die, so it seems we shouldn't be concerned about how
it happens if we don't reach our expected natural individual lifespan.

Of course, the newspaper article was shortened, so we don't know exactly
what was said or if there were any caveats.

What if the average number of people are killed this year by colds and
flu, but we gave this virus a name and a lot of testing and a lot of
publicity? Why don't we launch a similar massive effort to save lives
every year, from every virus?

We have 2300 corona19-blamed deaths in the USA so far. We have 20-50K
flu deaths so far. For the average old person dying of complications
of a cold or flu, we probably don't do a PCR analysis of what the
virus was.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#United_States

The data collected on colds and flu is shockingly bad, considering
that a lot of people die.

The statistic for deaths due to all causes each and every day in U.S. is 6,600. The corona deaths don't even register compared to that. It's just another cause of death.

But if you do not do enough to stop transmission, the cases will rise to
way over that figure. From
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/>:
"We estimate that in the absence of interventions, COVID-19 would have
resulted in 7.0 billion infections and 40 million deaths globally this
year."

The great 1918 flu infected about half the world population. The bad
2009 pandemic, maybe 15%.


And that isn't the only point. Viruses mutate (and we know that this
coronavirus has already mutated - it must have done to infect humans).
If it does mutate again to a more infectious and deadly form, the death
rate then will make the current prediction figures look puny by comparison.

Pandemic viruses usually, not always, mutate to be milder. There are
dozens of cold and flu viruses around this season. Any of them could
mutate to be worse.

This thing came through my area in early December. I rate the symptoms as mild to moderate, and not as bad as influenza but longer lasting.

Mo and I may have it. Faint sore throat, very mild headache, slight
temperature, a little tickle in the upper chest. Yes, very mild and
long lasting. But there are lots of other viruses this winter, so C19
is improbable.

I'm dying (not literally yet) to see some good general-population
antibody studies.

Some viruses cause people to lose their senses of taste and smell. It's
pretty rare in general, but seems to be much more common with the Wu
'flu. (Some folks are calling it Flu Manchu, which is funny but blames
the wrong part of the country.)

Our world traveller had that for a week or so at the beginning of March,
while staying with us. So maybe we've had it too.

Good health to you both.


This is the current statistics for my county:

Total Cases: 23
Residents: 22
Residents Not in Florida: 0
Non-Residents: 1
Demographics of Cases
Age Range: 19 to 88
Men: 8
Women: 15
Conditions and Care
Deaths: 0
Hospitalizations: 2

If you look around the country, most counties are like this or have even fewer infections. That is not to say they won't see higher infection levels, just that they will peak later.

A web site that displays prediction curves for infection at the state level show NY peaking this week and VA peaking the end of this month or early in May. VA has a lot of rural counties with literally 2 infections currently while NY state has NY city with a quarter of all infections in the country.

I don't know for sure, but it seems NYC has a lot of disregard for the stat-at-home concept. When the USNS Comfort sailed up the Hudson River crowds gathered to view it. Really? "Crowds"??? I guess we know why NYC is infection central.

They also haven't closed the subway yet. I can't think of a better breeding ground.

Mass transit is really what separates NYC and NJ from the rest of the country in regards to vastly different COVID infection rates.

Please explain and also trim your posts from time to time. I get tired of cleaning up your messes both in posting and in thinking.

DC, the SF bay area and other locations have mass transit. What is special about NYC?

I fully acknowledge the subway is a breeding ground for diseases. But that doesn't explain the infection rate in NYC compared to other cities. Paris is a good example.

So please explain what you mean and also please trim once in a while, eh?

--

Rick C.

+-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Flyguy]

On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 12:08:41 PM UTC-7, Rick C wrote:

On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 9:34:06 AM UTC-4, Michael Terrell wrote:
On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 8:55:51 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-30 12:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:01:24 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 10:58:34 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 08:21:55 +0100, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 29/03/20 21:41, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 3:25:31 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:34:19 +0100, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 29/03/20 16:35, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and epidemics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

So what? Take a thousand patients with terminal cancer and less than 6
months to live. Stand them in the middle of the road and let 10 drunk
drivers run them down. Are you saying we shouldn't blame the drunk
drivers because the patients were going to die anyway?

We are all going to die, so it seems we shouldn't be concerned about how
it happens if we don't reach our expected natural individual lifespan.

Of course, the newspaper article was shortened, so we don't know exactly
what was said or if there were any caveats.

What if the average number of people are killed this year by colds and
flu, but we gave this virus a name and a lot of testing and a lot of
publicity? Why don't we launch a similar massive effort to save lives
every year, from every virus?

We have 2300 corona19-blamed deaths in the USA so far. We have 20-50K
flu deaths so far. For the average old person dying of complications
of a cold or flu, we probably don't do a PCR analysis of what the
virus was.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#United_States

The data collected on colds and flu is shockingly bad, considering
that a lot of people die.

The statistic for deaths due to all causes each and every day in U.S. is 6,600. The corona deaths don't even register compared to that. It's just another cause of death.

But if you do not do enough to stop transmission, the cases will rise to
way over that figure. From
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/>:
"We estimate that in the absence of interventions, COVID-19 would have
resulted in 7.0 billion infections and 40 million deaths globally this
year."

The great 1918 flu infected about half the world population. The bad
2009 pandemic, maybe 15%.


And that isn't the only point. Viruses mutate (and we know that this
coronavirus has already mutated - it must have done to infect humans).
If it does mutate again to a more infectious and deadly form, the death
rate then will make the current prediction figures look puny by comparison.

Pandemic viruses usually, not always, mutate to be milder. There are
dozens of cold and flu viruses around this season. Any of them could
mutate to be worse.

This thing came through my area in early December. I rate the symptoms as mild to moderate, and not as bad as influenza but longer lasting.

Mo and I may have it. Faint sore throat, very mild headache, slight
temperature, a little tickle in the upper chest. Yes, very mild and
long lasting. But there are lots of other viruses this winter, so C19
is improbable.

I'm dying (not literally yet) to see some good general-population
antibody studies.

Some viruses cause people to lose their senses of taste and smell. It's
pretty rare in general, but seems to be much more common with the Wu
'flu. (Some folks are calling it Flu Manchu, which is funny but blames
the wrong part of the country.)

Our world traveller had that for a week or so at the beginning of March,
while staying with us. So maybe we've had it too.

Good health to you both.


This is the current statistics for my county:

Total Cases: 23
Residents: 22
Residents Not in Florida: 0
Non-Residents: 1
Demographics of Cases
Age Range: 19 to 88
Men: 8
Women: 15
Conditions and Care
Deaths: 0
Hospitalizations: 2

If you look around the country, most counties are like this or have even fewer infections. That is not to say they won't see higher infection levels, just that they will peak later.

A web site that displays prediction curves for infection at the state level show NY peaking this week and VA peaking the end of this month or early in May. VA has a lot of rural counties with literally 2 infections currently while NY state has NY city with a quarter of all infections in the country.

I don't know for sure, but it seems NYC has a lot of disregard for the stat-at-home concept. When the USNS Comfort sailed up the Hudson River crowds gathered to view it. Really? "Crowds"??? I guess we know why NYC is infection central.

They also haven't closed the subway yet. I can't think of a better breeding ground.

Mass transit is really what separates NYC and NJ from the rest of the country in regards to vastly different COVID infection rates.

 

[Flyguy]

On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 12:01:49 PM UTC-7, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:

On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 11:10:33 AM UTC-7, whit3rd wrote:
On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 10:03:01 AM UTC-7, FlyShit wrote:

This whole discussion has not addressed the un-said imperative:
are the
lives of old people worth saving?

That imperative has been addressed by selling a health insurance
plan, or

taxing and offering health coverage to residents. It isn't
open for di
scussion
after the victim becomes needful of care.

Honorable persons don't kick-em-when-they're-down.

A legal contract is not a "moral imperative:"

He never said "moral" imperative, you "STUPID" fuck!

A moral imperative is a strongly-felt principle that compels that
person to act.

Oh boy! Like we would ever need a primer from you on anything.

It is a kind of categorical imperative, as defined
by Immanuel Kant. Kant took the imperative to be a dictate of pure
reason, in its practical aspect.

Damn, boy! You been huntin' stupid shit up online again? You and
practicality are mutually exclusive, dahlink. It's twoo, it's twoo!
You stink, motherfucker!

Not following the moral law was
seen to be self-defeating and thus contrary to reason. Later
thinkers took the imperative to originate in conscience, as the
divine voice speaking through the human spirit. The dictates of
conscience are simply right and often resist further
justification. Looked at another way, the experience of conscience
is the basic experience of encountering the right.

Which is why your whore mother should be put in prison. The
severely ass fucked street slut failed us all when she failed to
flush you. And that is as simply right as it gets, FlyShit.

Calm down and take your meds, decadent.

 

[Flyguy]

On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 3:42:20 PM UTC-7, Rick C wrote:

On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 6:23:53 PM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:
On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 12:08:41 PM UTC-7, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 9:34:06 AM UTC-4, Michael Terrell wrote:
On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 8:55:51 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-30 12:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 09:01:24 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 10:58:34 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 08:21:55 +0100, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 29/03/20 21:41, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 3:25:31 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:34:19 +0100, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 29/03/20 16:35, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and epidemics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

So what? Take a thousand patients with terminal cancer and less than 6
months to live. Stand them in the middle of the road and let 10 drunk
drivers run them down. Are you saying we shouldn't blame the drunk
drivers because the patients were going to die anyway?

We are all going to die, so it seems we shouldn't be concerned about how
it happens if we don't reach our expected natural individual lifespan.

Of course, the newspaper article was shortened, so we don't know exactly
what was said or if there were any caveats.

What if the average number of people are killed this year by colds and
flu, but we gave this virus a name and a lot of testing and a lot of
publicity? Why don't we launch a similar massive effort to save lives
every year, from every virus?

We have 2300 corona19-blamed deaths in the USA so far. We have 20-50K
flu deaths so far. For the average old person dying of complications
of a cold or flu, we probably don't do a PCR analysis of what the
virus was.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#United_States

The data collected on colds and flu is shockingly bad, considering
that a lot of people die.

The statistic for deaths due to all causes each and every day in U.S. is 6,600. The corona deaths don't even register compared to that.. It's just another cause of death.

But if you do not do enough to stop transmission, the cases will rise to
way over that figure. From
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/>:
"We estimate that in the absence of interventions, COVID-19 would have
resulted in 7.0 billion infections and 40 million deaths globally this
year."

The great 1918 flu infected about half the world population. The bad
2009 pandemic, maybe 15%.


And that isn't the only point. Viruses mutate (and we know that this
coronavirus has already mutated - it must have done to infect humans).
If it does mutate again to a more infectious and deadly form, the death
rate then will make the current prediction figures look puny by comparison.

Pandemic viruses usually, not always, mutate to be milder. There are
dozens of cold and flu viruses around this season. Any of them could
mutate to be worse.

This thing came through my area in early December. I rate the symptoms as mild to moderate, and not as bad as influenza but longer lasting.

Mo and I may have it. Faint sore throat, very mild headache, slight
temperature, a little tickle in the upper chest. Yes, very mild and
long lasting. But there are lots of other viruses this winter, so C19
is improbable.

I'm dying (not literally yet) to see some good general-population
antibody studies.

Some viruses cause people to lose their senses of taste and smell.. It's
pretty rare in general, but seems to be much more common with the Wu
'flu. (Some folks are calling it Flu Manchu, which is funny but blames
the wrong part of the country.)

Our world traveller had that for a week or so at the beginning of March,
while staying with us. So maybe we've had it too.

Good health to you both.


This is the current statistics for my county:

Total Cases: 23
Residents: 22
Residents Not in Florida: 0
Non-Residents: 1
Demographics of Cases
Age Range: 19 to 88
Men: 8
Women: 15
Conditions and Care
Deaths: 0
Hospitalizations: 2

If you look around the country, most counties are like this or have even fewer infections. That is not to say they won't see higher infection levels, just that they will peak later.

A web site that displays prediction curves for infection at the state level show NY peaking this week and VA peaking the end of this month or early in May. VA has a lot of rural counties with literally 2 infections currently while NY state has NY city with a quarter of all infections in the country.

I don't know for sure, but it seems NYC has a lot of disregard for the stat-at-home concept. When the USNS Comfort sailed up the Hudson River crowds gathered to view it. Really? "Crowds"??? I guess we know why NYC is infection central.

They also haven't closed the subway yet. I can't think of a better breeding ground.

Mass transit is really what separates NYC and NJ from the rest of the country in regards to vastly different COVID infection rates.

Please explain and also trim your posts from time to time. I get tired of cleaning up your messes both in posting and in thinking.

DC, the SF bay area and other locations have mass transit. What is special about NYC?

I fully acknowledge the subway is a breeding ground for diseases. But that doesn't explain the infection rate in NYC compared to other cities. Paris is a good example.

So please explain what you mean and also please trim once in a while, eh?

--

Rick C.

+-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

LOL! YOU didn't clean it up either! I'll try to do better...

What separates NYC from the others is the volume of traffic. NYC has average daily ridership of 5.5 MILLION, SF has 324 THOUSAND.

http://web.mta.info/nyct/facts/ridership/
https://www.bart.gov/about/reports/ridership

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 2:11:43 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 10:21:12 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

As a medical prophet or a medical expert you are equally unconvincing. Try to fool some other audience.

Don't flatter yourself. It takes far, far less than a prophet or medical expert to refute your record ignorance.

You now seem to be getting quite a lot of other stuff wrong as well.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 2:22:00 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 2:11:43 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 10:21:12 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

As a medical prophet or a medical expert you are equally unconvincing.. Try to fool some other audience.

Don't flatter yourself. It takes far, far less than a prophet or medical expert to refute your record ignorance.

You now seem to be getting quite a lot of other stuff wrong as well.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

How would you know, you have nearly 0% comprehension of anything you see or read on the subject. You don't know how to source information and you lack background knowledge to develop perspective or understand context. You're pretty much what's called hopeless.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 12:53:30 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 2:22:00 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 2:11:43 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 10:21:12 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

As a medical prophet or a medical expert you are equally unconvincing. Try to fool some other audience.

Don't flatter yourself. It takes far, far less than a prophet or medical expert to refute your record ignorance.

You now seem to be getting quite a lot of other stuff wrong as well.

How would you know, you have nearly 0% comprehension of anything you see or read on the subject.

By which you means I don't share your deluded misapprehensions about what they mean.

> You don't know how to source information and you lack background knowledge to develop perspective or understand context.

I obviously do know how to source information, but it's hard to find which particular study you choose to misinterpret when you don't tell us where you found it.

> You're pretty much what's called hopeless.

If you hope that fatuous abuse is going to make me agree with you, think again - or in this particular case, try starting to think about what is actually going on.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:37:11 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 12:53:30 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 2:22:00 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 2:11:43 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 10:21:12 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

As a medical prophet or a medical expert you are equally unconvincing. Try to fool some other audience.

Don't flatter yourself. It takes far, far less than a prophet or medical expert to refute your record ignorance.

You now seem to be getting quite a lot of other stuff wrong as well.

How would you know, you have nearly 0% comprehension of anything you see or read on the subject.

By which you means I don't share your deluded misapprehensions about what they mean.

You don't know how to source information and you lack background knowledge to develop perspective or understand context.

I obviously do know how to source information, but it's hard to find which particular study you choose to misinterpret when you don't tell us where you found it.

You're pretty much what's called hopeless.

If you hope that fatuous abuse is going to make me agree with you, think again - or in this particular case, try starting to think about what is actually going on.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

You're the ignorant sheep who thinks a vaccine will be available any time soon. And the reason why is because you don't have one whit of understanding about the subject.
P.S. I'm not at all concerned about anybody agreeing with me. Why the hell would I care about that?

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 12:53:51 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 9:45:42 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 11:24:33 PM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:37:11 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 12:53:30 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail..com wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 2:22:00 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 2:11:43 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 10:21:12 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

<snip>

If you hope that fatuous abuse is going to make me agree with you, think again - or in this particular case, try starting to think about what is actually going on.

You're the ignorant sheep who thinks a vaccine will be available any time soon.

That rather misrepresents my position, though granting your grasp of all the other texts you misrepresent, it's probably just further evidence that your brain is on the skids.

What I said was that there are quite a few people around using new and innovative ways of trying to create a vaccine. I've explicitly said that I don't expect most of them to succeed, and all of them could fail.

Your claim seems to be that all of them are bound to fail, which is probably excessively pessimistic - along with a lot of the other twaddle you post.

Apparently you're too dumb to separate the methodology of vaccine development and safety testing. Technology has nothing to do with the testing, it hinges on trial participants and human biology, and can't be rushed.

That depends a bit on what the vaccine contains and what it is intended to do.

If all the vaccine is intended to do is to get the body to produce antibodies to the corona virus spike protein, testing is a whole lot easier than it is with - say - attentuated viruses, or a vaccine against a multi-strain virus like the dengue virus cluster.

> > > And the reason why is because you don't have one whit of understanding about the subject.

I don't share what you imagine to be your understanding, which isn't quite the same thing.

I understand enough to know that your claim that the next pandemic was bound to be a corona virus infection had to be utter nonsense, and when you dug out a paper that you thought supported that position it actually said there was no way of knowing which particular zoonose was gong to create next epidemic.

I made no such claim,

Actually you did.

> and I did not offer the paper to support such a claim.

That wasn't the way it struck me.

> There is no history of global corona pandemic,

SARS might not have made it to pandemic status, nor MERS, but SARS did look like an incipient epidemic for a while.

> whereas there is ample history of avian flu global epidemics. Influenza is an avian flu btw.

What's that got to do with corona virus epidemics?

P.S. I'm not at all concerned about anybody agreeing with me. Why the hell would I care about that?

Any more than you care that most of what you post is total nonsense?

Everything appears as nonsense to a mindless addle brain such as yourself.. You can't make sense of anything.

I'm afraid the addled brain here is yours. Where did the irrelevant comment about avian flu epidemics come from? Have you suddenly decided that the avian flu virus is a corona virus? You won't get a Nobel prize for hypothesising that.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 11:24:33 PM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:37:11 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 12:53:30 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 2:22:00 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 2:11:43 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 10:21:12 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

As a medical prophet or a medical expert you are equally unconvincing. Try to fool some other audience.

Don't flatter yourself. It takes far, far less than a prophet or medical expert to refute your record ignorance.

You now seem to be getting quite a lot of other stuff wrong as well..

How would you know, you have nearly 0% comprehension of anything you see or read on the subject.

By which you means I don't share your deluded misapprehensions about what they mean.

You don't know how to source information and you lack background knowledge to develop perspective or understand context.

I obviously do know how to source information, but it's hard to find which particular study you choose to misinterpret when you don't tell us where you found it.

You're pretty much what's called hopeless.

If you hope that fatuous abuse is going to make me agree with you, think again - or in this particular case, try starting to think about what is actually going on.

You're the ignorant sheep who thinks a vaccine will be available any time soon.

That rather misrepresents my position, though granting your grasp of all the other texts you misrepresent, it's probably just further evidence that your brain is on the skids.

What I said was that there are quite a few people around using new and innovative ways of trying to create a vaccine. I've explicitly said that I don't expect most of them to succeed, and all of them could fail.

Your claim seems to be that all of them are bound to fail, which is probably excessively pessimistic - along with a lot of the other twaddle you post.

> And the reason why is because you don't have one whit of understanding about the subject.

I understand enough to know that your claim that the next pandemic was bound to be a corona virus infection had to be utter nonsense, and when you dug out a paper that you thought supported that position it actually said there was no way of knowing which particular zoonose was gong to create next epidemic.

> P.S. I'm not at all concerned about anybody agreeing with me. Why the hell would I care about that?

Any more than you care that most of what you post is total nonsense?

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 9:45:42 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 11:24:33 PM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:37:11 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 12:53:30 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 2:22:00 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 2:11:43 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 10:21:12 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

As a medical prophet or a medical expert you are equally unconvincing. Try to fool some other audience.

Don't flatter yourself. It takes far, far less than a prophet or medical expert to refute your record ignorance.

You now seem to be getting quite a lot of other stuff wrong as well.

How would you know, you have nearly 0% comprehension of anything you see or read on the subject.

By which you means I don't share your deluded misapprehensions about what they mean.

You don't know how to source information and you lack background knowledge to develop perspective or understand context.

I obviously do know how to source information, but it's hard to find which particular study you choose to misinterpret when you don't tell us where you found it.

You're pretty much what's called hopeless.

If you hope that fatuous abuse is going to make me agree with you, think again - or in this particular case, try starting to think about what is actually going on.

You're the ignorant sheep who thinks a vaccine will be available any time soon.

That rather misrepresents my position, though granting your grasp of all the other texts you misrepresent, it's probably just further evidence that your brain is on the skids.

What I said was that there are quite a few people around using new and innovative ways of trying to create a vaccine. I've explicitly said that I don't expect most of them to succeed, and all of them could fail.

Your claim seems to be that all of them are bound to fail, which is probably excessively pessimistic - along with a lot of the other twaddle you post.

Apparently you're too dumb to separate the methodology of vaccine development and safety testing. Technology has nothing to do with the testing, it hinges on trial participants and human biology, and can't be rushed.

And the reason why is because you don't have one whit of understanding about the subject.

I understand enough to know that your claim that the next pandemic was bound to be a corona virus infection had to be utter nonsense, and when you dug out a paper that you thought supported that position it actually said there was no way of knowing which particular zoonose was gong to create next epidemic.

I made no such claim, and I did not offer the paper to support such a claim.. There is no history of global corona pandemic, whereas there is ample history of avian flu global epidemics. Influenza is an avian flu btw.

P.S. I'm not at all concerned about anybody agreeing with me. Why the hell would I care about that?

Any more than you care that most of what you post is total nonsense?

Everything appears as nonsense to a mindless addle brain such as yourself. You can't make sense of anything.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 10:44:43 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 12:53:51 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 9:45:42 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 11:24:33 PM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:37:11 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 12:53:30 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 2:22:00 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 2:11:43 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre....@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 10:21:12 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

snip

If you hope that fatuous abuse is going to make me agree with you, think again - or in this particular case, try starting to think about what is actually going on.

You're the ignorant sheep who thinks a vaccine will be available any time soon.

That rather misrepresents my position, though granting your grasp of all the other texts you misrepresent, it's probably just further evidence that your brain is on the skids.

What I said was that there are quite a few people around using new and innovative ways of trying to create a vaccine. I've explicitly said that I don't expect most of them to succeed, and all of them could fail.

Your claim seems to be that all of them are bound to fail, which is probably excessively pessimistic - along with a lot of the other twaddle you post.

Apparently you're too dumb to separate the methodology of vaccine development and safety testing. Technology has nothing to do with the testing, it hinges on trial participants and human biology, and can't be rushed.

That depends a bit on what the vaccine contains and what it is intended to do.

If all the vaccine is intended to do is to get the body to produce antibodies to the corona virus spike protein, testing is a whole lot easier than it is with - say - attentuated viruses, or a vaccine against a multi-strain virus like the dengue virus cluster.

Who the hell would use an attenuated virus. All they have to do is introduce the "spike protein" into the blood and voila- you have "an" antibody. There's no such thing as "the" antibody, there all kinds of different types.

You're so clueless you completely miss what testing is about. Of course you want to induce an immune response that eliminates the virus. But you don't want a response that attacks/damages self. Do you or anyone else know enough about every single cellular membrane surface set to say that can't happen? I doubt it.

And the reason why is because you don't have one whit of understanding about the subject.

I don't share what you imagine to be your understanding, which isn't quite the same thing.

You're the one on the imagination trip. I'm personally astounded at your simple mindedness.

I understand enough to know that your claim that the next pandemic was bound to be a corona virus infection had to be utter nonsense, and when you dug out a paper that you thought supported that position it actually said there was no way of knowing which particular zoonose was gong to create next epidemic.

I made no such claim,

Actually you did.

and I did not offer the paper to support such a claim.

That wasn't the way it struck me.

There is no history of global corona pandemic,

SARS might not have made it to pandemic status, nor MERS, but SARS did look like an incipient epidemic for a while.

It killed off its victims too fast to spread. It killed them off so fast there was no one left on which to test drugs or a vaccine.

whereas there is ample history of avian flu global epidemics. Influenza is an avian flu btw.

What's that got to do with corona virus epidemics?

P.S. I'm not at all concerned about anybody agreeing with me. Why the hell would I care about that?

Any more than you care that most of what you post is total nonsense?

Everything appears as nonsense to a mindless addle brain such as yourself. You can't make sense of anything.

I'm afraid the addled brain here is yours. Where did the irrelevant comment about avian flu epidemics come from? Have you suddenly decided that the avian flu virus is a corona virus? You won't get a Nobel prize for hypothesising that.

You're more addled than Biden. Get yourself checked out.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 4:41:44 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 10:44:43 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 12:53:51 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 9:45:42 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 11:24:33 PM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail..com wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:37:11 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 12:53:30 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 2:22:00 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 2:11:43 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre....@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 1, 2020 at 10:21:12 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

snip

If you hope that fatuous abuse is going to make me agree with you, think again - or in this particular case, try starting to think about what is actually going on.

You're the ignorant sheep who thinks a vaccine will be available any time soon.

That rather misrepresents my position, though granting your grasp of all the other texts you misrepresent, it's probably just further evidence that your brain is on the skids.

What I said was that there are quite a few people around using new and innovative ways of trying to create a vaccine. I've explicitly said that I don't expect most of them to succeed, and all of them could fail.

Your claim seems to be that all of them are bound to fail, which is probably excessively pessimistic - along with a lot of the other twaddle you post.

Apparently you're too dumb to separate the methodology of vaccine development and safety testing. Technology has nothing to do with the testing, it hinges on trial participants and human biology, and can't be rushed.

That depends a bit on what the vaccine contains and what it is intended to do.

If all the vaccine is intended to do is to get the body to produce antibodies to the corona virus spike protein, testing is a whole lot easier than it is with - say - attentuated viruses, or a vaccine against a multi-strain virus like the dengue virus cluster.

Who the hell would use an attenuated virus. All they have to do is introduce the "spike protein" into the blood and voila- you have "an" antibody. There's no such thing as "the" antibody, there all kinds of different types.

The point was that you were generalising across all vaccines, as if the problems involved in development and safety testing were exactly the same for all of them. And it's perfectly obvious that there are lots of different antibodies, but a vaccine is designed to generate exactly one that is specific to the disease you want to immunise against.

> You're so clueless you completely miss what testing is about. Of course you want to induce an immune response that eliminates the virus. But you don't want a response that attacks/damages self.

Obviously. But that isn't a problem that comes up often, if at all.

> Do you or anyone else know enough about every single cellular membrane surface set to say that can't happen? I doubt it.

There are a lot of vaccines around. They don't seem to be a significant source of autoimmune diseases.

And the reason why is because you don't have one whit of understanding about the subject.

I don't share what you imagine to be your understanding, which isn't quite the same thing.

You're the one on the imagination trip. I'm personally astounded at your simple mindedness.

Because I don't share your fatuous misunderstandings?

I understand enough to know that your claim that the next pandemic was bound to be a corona virus infection had to be utter nonsense, and when you dug out a paper that you thought supported that position it actually said there was no way of knowing which particular zoonose was gong to create next epidemic.

I made no such claim,

Actually you did.

and I did not offer the paper to support such a claim.

That wasn't the way it struck me.

There is no history of global corona pandemic,

SARS might not have made it to pandemic status, nor MERS, but SARS did look like an incipient epidemic for a while.

It killed off its victims too fast to spread. It killed them off so fast there was no one left on which to test drugs or a vaccine.

MERS kills about 35% f the people it infects. SARS killed about 7%. That leaves quite few survivors.

whereas there is ample history of avian flu global epidemics. Influenza is an avian flu btw.

What's that got to do with corona virus epidemics?

P.S. I'm not at all concerned about anybody agreeing with me. Why the hell would I care about that?

Any more than you care that most of what you post is total nonsense?

Everything appears as nonsense to a mindless addle brain such as yourself. You can't make sense of anything.

I'm afraid the addled brain here is yours. Where did the irrelevant comment about avian flu epidemics come from? Have you suddenly decided that the avian flu virus is a corona virus? You won't get a Nobel prize for hypothesising that.

You're more addled than Biden. Get yourself checked out.

Biden isn't addled. He does make a lot of speech errors, but he has been doing that all his life.

You, on the other hand, used to make sense. Now you don't. You probably ought to talk to you doctor. There's nothing to be done about Alzheimer's, but my mother's cognitive decline seems to have started when she stopped eating enough, and she didn't get any worse after we had to put her in a nursing home where she got fed properly. She had a BMI of 17 when she went in and got back up to 19 - not great but not starving - for her five years in the place.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney