Up to two thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the n

This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and epidemics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_Ferguson_(epidemiologist)

 

[Jeff Layman]

On 29/03/20 16:35, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and epidemics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

So what? Take a thousand patients with terminal cancer and less than 6
months to live. Stand them in the middle of the road and let 10 drunk
drivers run them down. Are you saying we shouldn't blame the drunk
drivers because the patients were going to die anyway?

We are all going to die, so it seems we shouldn't be concerned about how
it happens if we don't reach our expected natural individual lifespan.

Of course, the newspaper article was shortened, so we don't know exactly
what was said or if there were any caveats.

--

Jeff

 

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 2:34:24 PM UTC-4, Jeff Layman wrote:

On 29/03/20 16:35, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and epidemics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

So what? Take a thousand patients with terminal cancer and less than 6
months to live. Stand them in the middle of the road and let 10 drunk
drivers run them down. Are you saying we shouldn't blame the drunk
drivers because the patients were going to die anyway?

We are all going to die, so it seems we shouldn't be concerned about how
it happens if we don't reach our expected natural individual lifespan.

Of course, the newspaper article was shortened, so we don't know exactly
what was said or if there were any caveats.

There weren't anyway. You should be able to dig out a BBC radio interview of the statement.

Seriously, if 2/3 of these people are down to their last 9 months, then they haven't been deprived of any significant amount of their life, and this is especially true if their quality of life is low due to pain, mobility or emotional abandonment issues, to name a few. This is not to say these people don't count, but it does say their death is an almost expected event and not a great tragedy. Now extend this to the looming economic crash of global proportions that will lead to quite a lot of tragedy, and try to get a grip on priorities.

--

Jeff

 

On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:34:19 +0100, Jeff Layman
<jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 29/03/20 16:35, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and epidemics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

So what? Take a thousand patients with terminal cancer and less than 6
months to live. Stand them in the middle of the road and let 10 drunk
drivers run them down. Are you saying we shouldn't blame the drunk
drivers because the patients were going to die anyway?

We are all going to die, so it seems we shouldn't be concerned about how
it happens if we don't reach our expected natural individual lifespan.

Of course, the newspaper article was shortened, so we don't know exactly
what was said or if there were any caveats.

What if the average number of people are killed this year by colds and
flu, but we gave this virus a name and a lot of testing and a lot of
publicity? Why don't we launch a similar massive effort to save lives
every year, from every virus?

We have 2300 corona19-blamed deaths in the USA so far. We have 20-50K
flu deaths so far. For the average old person dying of complications
of a cold or flu, we probably don't do a PCR analysis of what the
virus was.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#United_States

The data collected on colds and flu is shockingly bad, considering
that a lot of people die.




--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Flyguy]

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 12:25:31 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:34:19 +0100, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 29/03/20 16:35, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and epidemics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

So what? Take a thousand patients with terminal cancer and less than 6
months to live. Stand them in the middle of the road and let 10 drunk
drivers run them down. Are you saying we shouldn't blame the drunk
drivers because the patients were going to die anyway?

We are all going to die, so it seems we shouldn't be concerned about how
it happens if we don't reach our expected natural individual lifespan.

Of course, the newspaper article was shortened, so we don't know exactly
what was said or if there were any caveats.

What if the average number of people are killed this year by colds and
flu, but we gave this virus a name and a lot of testing and a lot of
publicity? Why don't we launch a similar massive effort to save lives
every year, from every virus?

We have 2300 corona19-blamed deaths in the USA so far. We have 20-50K
flu deaths so far. For the average old person dying of complications
of a cold or flu, we probably don't do a PCR analysis of what the
virus was.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#United_States

The data collected on colds and flu is shockingly bad, considering
that a lot of people die.




--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

There are roughly 3 million people who die per year in the US. Even if COVID deaths climb to 100,000, it won't change this number significantly. Obviously, that is NOT why these extraordinary precautions are being taken. The big elephant in the room is the transmissibility of the virus overwhelming the healthcare system - if that breaks down there will be a flood of cases into the general population beyond our ability to control. This could lead to the deaths of millions. Right now, some hospitals in NY are at the breaking point.

https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence

 

[Rick C]

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 3:25:31 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:34:19 +0100, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 29/03/20 16:35, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and epidemics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

So what? Take a thousand patients with terminal cancer and less than 6
months to live. Stand them in the middle of the road and let 10 drunk
drivers run them down. Are you saying we shouldn't blame the drunk
drivers because the patients were going to die anyway?

We are all going to die, so it seems we shouldn't be concerned about how
it happens if we don't reach our expected natural individual lifespan.

Of course, the newspaper article was shortened, so we don't know exactly
what was said or if there were any caveats.

What if the average number of people are killed this year by colds and
flu, but we gave this virus a name and a lot of testing and a lot of
publicity? Why don't we launch a similar massive effort to save lives
every year, from every virus?

We do have efforts to minimize the harm from the flu. It's called a vaccine.

What you seem incapable of understanding is that the flu is a number of different diseases and kill a limited number. This disease is caused by a single virus and we have no idea how many may die from it if we do nothing. It can easily be many millions. Why is that so hard for you to understand???

Why do you refuse to use your common sense about this pandemic?

We have 2300 corona19-blamed deaths in the USA so far. We have 20-50K
flu deaths so far.

What do you expect the final count of flu deaths will be from this season? What do you expect the final count of COVID-19 deaths will be?

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-03-29 15:25, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:34:19 +0100, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 29/03/20 16:35, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and epidemics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

So what? Take a thousand patients with terminal cancer and less than 6
months to live. Stand them in the middle of the road and let 10 drunk
drivers run them down. Are you saying we shouldn't blame the drunk
drivers because the patients were going to die anyway?

We are all going to die, so it seems we shouldn't be concerned about how
it happens if we don't reach our expected natural individual lifespan.

Of course, the newspaper article was shortened, so we don't know exactly
what was said or if there were any caveats.

What if the average number of people are killed this year by colds and
flu, but we gave this virus a name and a lot of testing and a lot of
publicity? Why don't we launch a similar massive effort to save lives
every year, from every virus?

We have 2300 corona19-blamed deaths in the USA so far. We have 20-50K
flu deaths so far. For the average old person dying of complications
of a cold or flu, we probably don't do a PCR analysis of what the
virus was.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#United_States

The data collected on colds and flu is shockingly bad, considering
that a lot of people die.

Sir Wilfrid Laurier, the famous doctor, called pneumonia "the old man's
friend." These days it's almost the only way to die that isn't
horrible, except for something sudden like getting hit by a bus or
suffering a massive stroke.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

[Rick C]

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:23:13 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:

On 2020-03-29 15:25, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:34:19 +0100, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 29/03/20 16:35, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and epidemics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

So what? Take a thousand patients with terminal cancer and less than 6
months to live. Stand them in the middle of the road and let 10 drunk
drivers run them down. Are you saying we shouldn't blame the drunk
drivers because the patients were going to die anyway?

We are all going to die, so it seems we shouldn't be concerned about how
it happens if we don't reach our expected natural individual lifespan.

Of course, the newspaper article was shortened, so we don't know exactly
what was said or if there were any caveats.

What if the average number of people are killed this year by colds and
flu, but we gave this virus a name and a lot of testing and a lot of
publicity? Why don't we launch a similar massive effort to save lives
every year, from every virus?

We have 2300 corona19-blamed deaths in the USA so far. We have 20-50K
flu deaths so far. For the average old person dying of complications
of a cold or flu, we probably don't do a PCR analysis of what the
virus was.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#United_States

The data collected on colds and flu is shockingly bad, considering
that a lot of people die.

Sir Wilfrid Laurier, the famous doctor, called pneumonia "the old man's
friend." These days it's almost the only way to die that isn't
horrible, except for something sudden like getting hit by a bus or
suffering a massive stroke.

What part of dying from pneumonia is not horrible???

--

Rick C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[whit3rd]

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 8:35:08 AM UTC-7, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and epidemics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

That's just clickbait. He's firing off random hypotheses suitable for testing (so this
is just an outlier among possibilities), not reporting what he can infer from data.

In short, he's NOT staking his reputation on this as a prediction.

Reality check: if the disease has 3% mortality, that implies one in fifty of the people who catch it
'would have died this year'. That's inconsistent with normal human lifespan.
This is the sort of thing you'd not get from an epidemiologist first, but from an insurance actuary.

 

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:26:28 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:23:13 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-29 15:25, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:34:19 +0100, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 29/03/20 16:35, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and epidemics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

So what? Take a thousand patients with terminal cancer and less than 6
months to live. Stand them in the middle of the road and let 10 drunk
drivers run them down. Are you saying we shouldn't blame the drunk
drivers because the patients were going to die anyway?

We are all going to die, so it seems we shouldn't be concerned about how
it happens if we don't reach our expected natural individual lifespan.

Of course, the newspaper article was shortened, so we don't know exactly
what was said or if there were any caveats.

What if the average number of people are killed this year by colds and
flu, but we gave this virus a name and a lot of testing and a lot of
publicity? Why don't we launch a similar massive effort to save lives
every year, from every virus?

We have 2300 corona19-blamed deaths in the USA so far. We have 20-50K
flu deaths so far. For the average old person dying of complications
of a cold or flu, we probably don't do a PCR analysis of what the
virus was.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#United_States

The data collected on colds and flu is shockingly bad, considering
that a lot of people die.

Sir Wilfrid Laurier, the famous doctor, called pneumonia "the old man's
friend." These days it's almost the only way to die that isn't
horrible, except for something sudden like getting hit by a bus or
suffering a massive stroke.

What part of dying from pneumonia is not horrible???

The hospital setting puts you in coma. You never see it coming.

--

Rick C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[whit3rd]

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 12:25:31 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

What if the average number of people are killed this year by colds and
flu, but we gave this virus a name and a lot of testing and a lot of
publicity? Why don't we launch a similar massive effort to save lives
every year, from every virus?

Because there's no immunity from previous strains, this one is a killer, and
the mortality predictions are about the same as for WW II. It's a major change in
YOUR life expectancy if we do nothing.

Don't you feel silly asking that same easy question over and over?

 

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 3:25:31 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:34:19 +0100, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 29/03/20 16:35, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and epidemics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

So what? Take a thousand patients with terminal cancer and less than 6
months to live. Stand them in the middle of the road and let 10 drunk
drivers run them down. Are you saying we shouldn't blame the drunk
drivers because the patients were going to die anyway?

We are all going to die, so it seems we shouldn't be concerned about how
it happens if we don't reach our expected natural individual lifespan.

Of course, the newspaper article was shortened, so we don't know exactly
what was said or if there were any caveats.

What if the average number of people are killed this year by colds and
flu, but we gave this virus a name and a lot of testing and a lot of
publicity? Why don't we launch a similar massive effort to save lives
every year, from every virus?

We have 2300 corona19-blamed deaths in the USA so far. We have 20-50K
flu deaths so far. For the average old person dying of complications
of a cold or flu, we probably don't do a PCR analysis of what the
virus was.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#United_States

The data collected on colds and flu is shockingly bad, considering
that a lot of people die.

The statistic for deaths due to all causes each and every day in U.S. is 6,600. The corona deaths don't even register compared to that. It's just another cause of death.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Rick C]

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:56:37 PM UTC-4, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

No one was talking abut those kinds of death. The corona virus will not make you suffer like that. It roars in like high speed rail and kills you pretty fast.

What a crock of BS. It takes time to kill you and you know you are possibly dying because you feel horrible. You are talking out of your ass.

It's a horrible way to die and many who don't die suffer and linger on for days and weeks with lasting damage to their lungs. Don't make this out to be a merciful disease. That's BS.

--

Rick C.

-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 13:39:14 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:26:28 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:23:13 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-29 15:25, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:34:19 +0100, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 29/03/20 16:35, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and epidemics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

So what? Take a thousand patients with terminal cancer and less than 6
months to live. Stand them in the middle of the road and let 10 drunk
drivers run them down. Are you saying we shouldn't blame the drunk
drivers because the patients were going to die anyway?

We are all going to die, so it seems we shouldn't be concerned about how
it happens if we don't reach our expected natural individual lifespan.

Of course, the newspaper article was shortened, so we don't know exactly
what was said or if there were any caveats.

What if the average number of people are killed this year by colds and
flu, but we gave this virus a name and a lot of testing and a lot of
publicity? Why don't we launch a similar massive effort to save lives
every year, from every virus?

We have 2300 corona19-blamed deaths in the USA so far. We have 20-50K
flu deaths so far. For the average old person dying of complications
of a cold or flu, we probably don't do a PCR analysis of what the
virus was.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#United_States

The data collected on colds and flu is shockingly bad, considering
that a lot of people die.

Sir Wilfrid Laurier, the famous doctor, called pneumonia "the old man's
friend." These days it's almost the only way to die that isn't
horrible, except for something sudden like getting hit by a bus or
suffering a massive stroke.

What part of dying from pneumonia is not horrible???

The hospital setting puts you in coma. You never see it coming.

Last time I was in a hospital, there were several strong motivations
to get out, preferably alive.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 3:51:58 PM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 12:25:31 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:34:19 +0100, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 29/03/20 16:35, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and epidemics..

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

So what? Take a thousand patients with terminal cancer and less than 6
months to live. Stand them in the middle of the road and let 10 drunk
drivers run them down. Are you saying we shouldn't blame the drunk
drivers because the patients were going to die anyway?

We are all going to die, so it seems we shouldn't be concerned about how
it happens if we don't reach our expected natural individual lifespan.

Of course, the newspaper article was shortened, so we don't know exactly
what was said or if there were any caveats.

What if the average number of people are killed this year by colds and
flu, but we gave this virus a name and a lot of testing and a lot of
publicity? Why don't we launch a similar massive effort to save lives
every year, from every virus?

We have 2300 corona19-blamed deaths in the USA so far. We have 20-50K
flu deaths so far. For the average old person dying of complications
of a cold or flu, we probably don't do a PCR analysis of what the
virus was.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#United_States

The data collected on colds and flu is shockingly bad, considering
that a lot of people die.




--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

There are roughly 3 million people who die per year in the US. Even if COVID deaths climb to 100,000, it won't change this number significantly. Obviously, that is NOT why these extraordinary precautions are being taken. The big elephant in the room is the transmissibility of the virus overwhelming the healthcare system - if that breaks down there will be a flood of cases into the general population beyond our ability to control. This could lead to the deaths of millions. Right now, some hospitals in NY are at the breaking point.

https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence

They're not telling you the health profile of all these people requiring hospitalization. Like are they morbidly obese, or have severe diabetes, various chronic disease of the vital organs. It looks like people of just average good health or better have mild to none in the way of symptoms. And require minimal monitoring by their doctor.

 

[Rick C]

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:39:18 PM UTC-4, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:26:28 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:23:13 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-29 15:25, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:34:19 +0100, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 29/03/20 16:35, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and epidemics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

So what? Take a thousand patients with terminal cancer and less than 6
months to live. Stand them in the middle of the road and let 10 drunk
drivers run them down. Are you saying we shouldn't blame the drunk
drivers because the patients were going to die anyway?

We are all going to die, so it seems we shouldn't be concerned about how
it happens if we don't reach our expected natural individual lifespan.

Of course, the newspaper article was shortened, so we don't know exactly
what was said or if there were any caveats.

What if the average number of people are killed this year by colds and
flu, but we gave this virus a name and a lot of testing and a lot of
publicity? Why don't we launch a similar massive effort to save lives
every year, from every virus?

We have 2300 corona19-blamed deaths in the USA so far. We have 20-50K
flu deaths so far. For the average old person dying of complications
of a cold or flu, we probably don't do a PCR analysis of what the
virus was.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#United_States

The data collected on colds and flu is shockingly bad, considering
that a lot of people die.

Sir Wilfrid Laurier, the famous doctor, called pneumonia "the old man's
friend." These days it's almost the only way to die that isn't
horrible, except for something sudden like getting hit by a bus or
suffering a massive stroke.

What part of dying from pneumonia is not horrible???

The hospital setting puts you in coma. You never see it coming.

You mean the final part. Up to that point you know you are suffering and can't catch your breath. They put my dad on one of those machines. His mom died of scarring of the lungs, slowly over many months. An uncle died of lung cancer, near the end his emaciated body writhing, trying to get a bit of air past the tumor into his lungs.

All of them gruesome, not something you forget.

You definitely see pneumonia coming. It's only once you are so bad off you don't care about much that they put you out.

--

Rick C.

-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:35:45 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 8:35:08 AM UTC-7, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and epidemics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

That's just clickbait. He's firing off random hypotheses suitable for testing (so this
is just an outlier among possibilities), not reporting what he can infer from data.

In short, he's NOT staking his reputation on this as a prediction.

Reality check: if the disease has 3% mortality, that implies one in fifty of the people who catch it
'would have died this year'. That's inconsistent with normal human lifespan.
This is the sort of thing you'd not get from an epidemiologist first, but from an insurance actuary.

He's the one doing the infectious spread and mortality modeling for the UK government. His original projection of 200,000 deaths there has since been revised downward to 20,000. Such is the wildly exponential nature of that work. He's an official government science adviser there, so he must have something going for him.

 

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:52:07 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:39:18 PM UTC-4, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:26:28 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:23:13 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-03-29 15:25, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:34:19 +0100, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 29/03/20 16:35, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and epidemics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

So what? Take a thousand patients with terminal cancer and less than 6
months to live. Stand them in the middle of the road and let 10 drunk
drivers run them down. Are you saying we shouldn't blame the drunk
drivers because the patients were going to die anyway?

We are all going to die, so it seems we shouldn't be concerned about how
it happens if we don't reach our expected natural individual lifespan.

Of course, the newspaper article was shortened, so we don't know exactly
what was said or if there were any caveats.

What if the average number of people are killed this year by colds and
flu, but we gave this virus a name and a lot of testing and a lot of
publicity? Why don't we launch a similar massive effort to save lives
every year, from every virus?

We have 2300 corona19-blamed deaths in the USA so far. We have 20-50K
flu deaths so far. For the average old person dying of complications
of a cold or flu, we probably don't do a PCR analysis of what the
virus was.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#United_States

The data collected on colds and flu is shockingly bad, considering
that a lot of people die.

Sir Wilfrid Laurier, the famous doctor, called pneumonia "the old man's
friend." These days it's almost the only way to die that isn't
horrible, except for something sudden like getting hit by a bus or
suffering a massive stroke.

What part of dying from pneumonia is not horrible???

The hospital setting puts you in coma. You never see it coming.

You mean the final part. Up to that point you know you are suffering and can't catch your breath. They put my dad on one of those machines. His mom died of scarring of the lungs, slowly over many months. An uncle died of lung cancer, near the end his emaciated body writhing, trying to get a bit of air past the tumor into his lungs.

No one was talking abut those kinds of death. The corona virus will not make you suffer like that. It roars in like high speed rail and kills you pretty fast.

All of them gruesome, not something you forget.

You definitely see pneumonia coming. It's only once you are so bad off you don't care about much that they put you out.

--

Rick C.

-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-03-29 16:23, Phil Hobbs wrote:

On 2020-03-29 15:25, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:34:19 +0100, Jeff Layman
jmlayman@invalid.invalid> wrote:

On 29/03/20 16:35, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
This according the British epidemiologist and government scientific
adviser with a lifetime of experience studying deadly disease and
epidemics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/


So what? Take a thousand patients with terminal cancer and less than 6
months to live. Stand them in the middle of the road and let 10 drunk
drivers run them down. Are you saying we shouldn't blame the drunk
drivers because the patients were going to die anyway?

We are all going to die, so it seems we shouldn't be concerned about how
it happens if we don't reach our expected natural individual lifespan.

Of course, the newspaper article was shortened, so we don't know exactly
what was said or if there were any caveats.

What if the average number of people are killed this year by colds and
flu, but we gave this virus a name and a lot of testing and a lot of
publicity? Why don't we launch a similar massive effort to save lives
every year, from every virus?

We have 2300 corona19-blamed deaths in the USA so far. We have 20-50K
flu deaths so far. For the average old person dying of complications
of a cold or flu, we probably don't do a PCR analysis of what the
virus was.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#United_States

The data collected on colds and flu is shockingly bad, considering
that a lot of people die.

Sir Wilfrid
Osler, the famous doctor, called pneumonia "the old man's
friend."  These days it's almost the only way to die that isn't
horrible, except for something sudden like getting hit by a bus or
suffering a massive stroke.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

[Phil Allison]

whit3rd the witless lunatic wrote:

---------------------------

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

That's just clickbait.

**Like hell it it.

He's firing off random hypotheses suitable for testing

** He is a leading expert and is making more sense than anyone else.

In short, he's NOT staking his reputation on this as a prediction.

** No need to exists, as the game keeps changing on a daily basis.

Reality check: if the disease has 3% mortality, that implies one in fifty of the people who catch it 'would have died this year'.

That's inconsistent with normal human lifespan.

** The death rate figure I see is more like 2% - implying 1.3%

Very consistent as it equates to 76 years.


...... Phil