Guest
"You expect the US govt to default in the
next 15 years?"
Actually I advocate sooner. They are already borrowing the interest.
Thing is, IF we do it at the right time, let's say Trump's trade "action" actually does more than we thought it might and gets us a little closer to self sufficiency, it won't be so bad. Out money would be like army scrip, hardly worth shit anywhere else.
Internal trad would not change all that much. Imports prices would go through the roof. Our level of importing is what makes us so precariously vulnerable. And it doesn't even take us, happenings in other parts of the world can affect it as well, as long as we have this level of buying.
If we say, default in 2025 after a bunch of more business is here and we import less, the impact will not be as bad.
Natural reaction of traders ? Well with the petrobuck dead we will have to sell our exports in gold and pay for imports in gold. After Germany we know they have nowhere near as much as they should, remember Germany ? Remember how the story about their gold was "debunked" ? Well it wasn't. Germany STILL had to wait for their gold, but Venezuela get theirs right away. Even if they HAVE the gold, they blew their credibility - with the shipping schedule TO Germany with her gold. That is enough to turn people off.
Remember about stocks, it is not so much what they'll do, it is more what people THINK they're going to do. Add it all up, and they fact that those people KNOW our wars are fought for booty and bounty for the select few and most of that big money never sees the US economy... They know because they study this shit and they got way better sources than even some governments.