Superfluous Demand concept

[dcaster@krl.org]

On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 4:31:25 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:

I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

Something with intrinsic value, something people want and need, is
as good as you can do for storing value. That can include partial
ownership in a solid enterprise, too.

I highly suggest that you not talk to your broker if it costs you any money.

Something with intrinsic value. Partial ownership in a solid enterprise .....

Sounds like buying stock.

Best if you buy an index 500 fund from Vanguard, Schwab, or Fidelity. Low cost and diversified. Even a company like IBM or GE can run into problems. Buying a fund like a index 500 pretty much guarantees you average returns, but that is pretty darn good.

Dan

If the thing has intrinsic value, and we continue to respect property
rights (the right to own something and not have it confiscated), then
things with intrinsic value should maintain their relative value,
regardless.

But if government starts taking assets -- savings, investments, land,
companies, etc. (and they have many insidious methods and pretexts for
doing so) -- then it's time to buy a big lump of gold and try nibbling
a little chunk of it every night, to see it if fills your belly.

Cheers,
James Arthur

Right. I should take my money out of the stock market... hold it
in cash for a bit... and invest in test equipment during the next
sell off.
(there's no way I can use that much test equipment. :^)

I've got a nice house, sm. barn, nice land...
Well the land is sorta crappy for farming*.. heavy clay..
But there's a beautiful creek that runs along the back end.
(1/2 of it's trees/woods and the other half is slowly turning
into trees. :^)

And then gold, Right. Is gold high now?
(or some other precious metal?)
I was going to ask my broker, I have no idea, but my
first guess is he's not going to sugg> > est gold.
(but what do I know?)

George H.

*a neighbor, ex-farmer, said it was good haying fields.

 

[Ricky C]

On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:23:53 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:39:40 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:00:38 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.


Hmm.. OK I tend to be a frugal type. But I wonder if everyone (in US)
will be a bit more frugal after this? And that will mean less money
moving around... lower GDP...
I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

George H.



Get a copy of " A Random Walk down Wall Street " Buy it used off Abe or Amazon.

I would not recommend selling stocks right now.

Doesn't that depend entirely on the stock?

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Ricky C]

On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 11:28:57 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:

On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:58:25 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 4:31:25 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:

I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

Something with intrinsic value, something people want and need, is
as good as you can do for storing value. That can include partial
ownership in a solid enterprise, too.


I highly suggest that you not talk to your broker if it costs you any money.
Hi Dan, you certainly have a lot of advice. :^)
Let me first say I'm neither as smart nor as rich as you.
(again with the smile. :^)

I guess I was just feeling that it looks like a very uncertain
situation in the future. And I'd like to tuck ~1/2 our
stock money away for a while... gold seems like the traditional
choice.

By whom? Gold is what people invest in when they are worried about civilization crashing although bullets may be better, but then you'd better have a gun to go with them.

I already posted data on the price of gold. Looks to me like it is near the all time high. It doesn't move quickly for the most part, but if you start to lose money on it at what price will you bail and what will you put it into?

I still say government bonds are the way to go. They can't drop in value much unless inflation starts to take off an interest rates run up. That also happens slowly and bonds are still more stable than gold.

I say, wait for Tesla to reach below 500 and buy. If it goes below 400 buy like crazy. Below 300 sell it all! No, just kidding. For anytime in the near future Tesla is a great buy at prices significantly lower than today's close of $780. Even with all the rampant losses in the market it still double it's price at the first of the year.

While the market has movements, it doesn't dictate the pricing of any individual stocks. Tesla doesn't move with the market so much. Once they announce the Fremont factory reopening the price will jump hugely. If you don't mind paying tax on it, you can make a lot of money off it. I prefer to pay less tax and buy/sell less often.

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 1:28:57 PM UTC+10, George Herold wrote:

On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:58:25 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 4:31:25 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:

<snip>

I guess I was just feeling that it looks like a very uncertain
situation in the future. And I'd like to tuck ~1/2 our
stock money away for a while... gold seems like the traditional
choice.

Gold may be traditional, but it's price goes up and down quite a lot with changing anxiety levels, so it's going to be cheap when you are relaxed enough to think about selling it. Something less obvious might be better.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[amdx]

On 4/30/2020 11:13 PM, Ricky C wrote:

On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 11:28:57 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:58:25 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 4:31:25 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:

I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

Something with intrinsic value, something people want and need, is
as good as you can do for storing value. That can include partial
ownership in a solid enterprise, too.


I highly suggest that you not talk to your broker if it costs you any money.
Hi Dan, you certainly have a lot of advice. :^)
Let me first say I'm neither as smart nor as rich as you.
(again with the smile. :^)

I guess I was just feeling that it looks like a very uncertain
situation in the future. And I'd like to tuck ~1/2 our
stock money away for a while... gold seems like the traditional
choice.

By whom? Gold is what people invest in when they are worried about civilization crashing although bullets may be better, but then you'd better have a gun to go with them.

I already posted data on the price of gold. Looks to me like it is near the all time high. It doesn't move quickly for the most part, but if you start to lose money on it at what price will you bail and what will you put it into?

I still say government bonds are the way to go. They can't drop in value much unless inflation starts to take off an interest rates run up. That also happens slowly and bonds are still more stable than gold.

I say, wait for Tesla to reach below 500 and buy. If it goes below 400 buy like crazy. Below 300 sell it all! No, just kidding. For anytime in the near future Tesla is a great buy at prices significantly lower than today's close of $780. Even with all the rampant losses in the market it still double it's price at the first of the year.

While the market has movements, it doesn't dictate the pricing of any individual stocks. Tesla doesn't move with the market so much. Once they announce the Fremont factory reopening the price will jump hugely. If you don't mind paying tax on it, you can make a lot of money off it. I prefer to pay less tax and buy/sell less often.

You seem to be pushing Tesla pretty hard, what percentage of your life
savings do you have in Tesla? What percentage do you recommend for others?
Mikek

 

[Ricky C]

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 9:15:03 AM UTC-4, amdx wrote:

On 4/30/2020 11:13 PM, Ricky C wrote:
On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 11:28:57 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:58:25 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 4:31:25 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:

I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

Something with intrinsic value, something people want and need, is
as good as you can do for storing value. That can include partial
ownership in a solid enterprise, too.


I highly suggest that you not talk to your broker if it costs you any money.
Hi Dan, you certainly have a lot of advice. :^)
Let me first say I'm neither as smart nor as rich as you.
(again with the smile. :^)

I guess I was just feeling that it looks like a very uncertain
situation in the future. And I'd like to tuck ~1/2 our
stock money away for a while... gold seems like the traditional
choice.

By whom? Gold is what people invest in when they are worried about civilization crashing although bullets may be better, but then you'd better have a gun to go with them.

I already posted data on the price of gold. Looks to me like it is near the all time high. It doesn't move quickly for the most part, but if you start to lose money on it at what price will you bail and what will you put it into?

I still say government bonds are the way to go. They can't drop in value much unless inflation starts to take off an interest rates run up. That also happens slowly and bonds are still more stable than gold.

I say, wait for Tesla to reach below 500 and buy. If it goes below 400 buy like crazy. Below 300 sell it all! No, just kidding. For anytime in the near future Tesla is a great buy at prices significantly lower than today's close of $780. Even with all the rampant losses in the market it still double it's price at the first of the year.

While the market has movements, it doesn't dictate the pricing of any individual stocks. Tesla doesn't move with the market so much. Once they announce the Fremont factory reopening the price will jump hugely. If you don't mind paying tax on it, you can make a lot of money off it. I prefer to pay less tax and buy/sell less often.


You seem to be pushing Tesla pretty hard, what percentage of your life
savings do you have in Tesla? What percentage do you recommend for others?
Mikek

I have maybe 10% invested in Tesla. I don't make recommendations for anyone else.

Maybe I haven't been clear. There is a lot of money to be made trading Tesla stock. But there is risk for sure. Not so much that you will lose your shirt because the company goes belly up. But because people will make the wrong decisions about when to buy and sell, mostly because they don't pay attention to the facts.

I'm not immune. Every logical thought was to invest when it dropped below 200. I put about half in but held back and didn't invest all I had set aside for this. From there it moved upward and I never saw that great an opportunity again.

Likewise I sold some that reached the long term capital gains point but missed out on the resent rise. Still, I made plenty on it. I really don't think the price will remain up with the present situation. The market is agreeing with me at the moment. I just need until the end of the month to sell the rest. Then in a quarter or two it will be ready to pop back up.

Regardless of what anyone thinks of the cars, the company has a very solid future ahead. The only threat I see is the long term effects from this virus. If the economy tanks and stays tanked, Tesla might not be able to sell all the cars they make. That would be bad with the debt they are taking on.

--

Rick C.

--+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[dcaster@krl.org]

On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 11:59:52 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:

On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:23:53 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:39:40 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:00:38 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.


Hmm.. OK I tend to be a frugal type. But I wonder if everyone (in US)
will be a bit more frugal after this? And that will mean less money
moving around... lower GDP...
I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

George H.



Get a copy of " A Random Walk down Wall Street " Buy it used off Abe or Amazon.

I would not recommend selling stocks right now.

Doesn't that depend entirely on the stock?

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

There are definitely exceptions. The recommendation was for stocks in general, say index 500 funds.

Dan

 

[Ricky C]

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 3:48:50 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 11:59:52 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:23:53 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:39:40 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:00:38 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.


Hmm.. OK I tend to be a frugal type. But I wonder if everyone (in US)
will be a bit more frugal after this? And that will mean less money
moving around... lower GDP...
I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

George H.



Get a copy of " A Random Walk down Wall Street " Buy it used off Abe or Amazon.

I would not recommend selling stocks right now.

Doesn't that depend entirely on the stock?

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

There are definitely exceptions. The recommendation was for stocks in general, say index 500 funds.

Dan

Why would anyone capable of reading and thinking buy into funds and let someone else make your investing decisions for you? That's why I posted the link to xkcd to point out professional investors have no better track record than yourself!

I have a pretty good investment record having made over half a million on stocks. I'm happy with my fees as well. All in all I give myself an A++ rating on my high growth fund.

--

Rick C.

-+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Ricky C]

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 7:47:00 PM UTC-4, amdx wrote:

On 5/1/2020 5:50 PM, Ricky C wrote:
On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 3:48:50 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

There are definitely exceptions. The recommendation was for stocks in general, say index 500 funds.

Dan

Why would anyone capable of reading and thinking buy into funds and let someone else make your investing decisions for you? That's why I posted the link to xkcd to point out professional investors have no better track record than yourself!

I have a pretty good investment record having made over half a million on stocks. I'm happy with my fees as well. All in all I give myself an A++ rating on my high growth fund.


The S&P 500 is an index, it is not letting someone else make your
investing decisions.

That's exactly what it is if you buy a fund based on the index. The index may not have high volatility, but it does change from time to time and you are not the one making the decisions.

It's all of no point either way. What is important is that what an index has done over the last year, or 3 years or 5 years means diddly squat for investing going forward. If you could invest in a fund going backwards, that would be great! Then the histories would be all you need.

I have a pretty good investment record having made over half a
million >on stocks.
My silly index investing in 3500 companies made almost twice that from
2012 to 2017, 6 years of the Obama administration. And during that time
I paid $0 taxes on those gains.

So you didn't cash them out and so have not made the money you claim? What index is this btw? How did you avoid the taxes?

But the your good investment record means little, if you started with $2M.
I'm happier with my 0.04% fee. Vanguard's VTSAX

Exactly. But I have posted a lot about my trading history. It's all there.. What did you start with to make your million?

I do agree with you on paying someone to manage your money, it has
been shown in several studies the market beats investment managers over
time.
Managers hit home runs for a couple years and then go backwards and end
up getting beat by the market.

That's why I only invest in companies I know a great deal about.

AMD was another of my winner picks. But I never invested in it because I didn't have liquid funds when it was ripe. Later there was the time I told my friend to dump his AMD because they had lost enough ground to Intel they would not be able to regain it (he didn't). Shortly after that AMD won a $2 billion suit against Intel in the EU. lol Now they have dumped most of their fabs (the part that they couldn't keep up with Intel on) and are doing well using the big fab houses. I guess that's the industry now. The nature of silicon processing has made it too expensive to compete with the contract fabs who have the expertise and market share to be the 600 lb gorilla right next to Intel.

BTW, while not all of my were winners, the ones that were typically gain 200 to 300%. Like I said, Tesla has huge potential, upside mostly but shorts make a lot of money on it to, it's all just timing. But long term being long is more sure, you just have to wait long enough. Like I've said, in two months I expect 2nd quarter results to be pretty crappy. Then there is Musk's tweeting which seems to be whacking the stock at the moment. Musk and Trump have a bit in common.

--

Rick C.

-++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[amdx]

On 5/1/2020 5:50 PM, Ricky C wrote:

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 3:48:50 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 11:59:52 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:23:53 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:39:40 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:00:38 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.


Hmm.. OK I tend to be a frugal type. But I wonder if everyone (in US)
will be a bit more frugal after this? And that will mean less money
moving around... lower GDP...
I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

George H.



Get a copy of " A Random Walk down Wall Street " Buy it used off Abe or Amazon.

I would not recommend selling stocks right now.

Doesn't that depend entirely on the stock?

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

There are definitely exceptions. The recommendation was for stocks in general, say index 500 funds.

Dan

Why would anyone capable of reading and thinking buy into funds and let someone else make your investing decisions for you? That's why I posted the link to xkcd to point out professional investors have no better track record than yourself!

I have a pretty good investment record having made over half a million on stocks. I'm happy with my fees as well. All in all I give myself an A++ rating on my high growth fund.

The S&P 500 is an index, it is not letting someone else make your
investing decisions.
> I have a pretty good investment record having made over half a
million >on stocks.
My silly index investing in 3500 companies made almost twice that from
2012 to 2017, 6 years of the Obama administration. And during that time
I paid $0 taxes on those gains.
But the your good investment record means little, if you started with $2M.
I'm happier with my 0.04% fee. Vanguard's VTSAX

I do agree with you on paying someone to manage your money, it has
been shown in several studies the market beats investment managers over
time.
Managers hit home runs for a couple years and then go backwards and end
up getting beat by the market.

Mikek

 

[amdx]

On 5/1/2020 7:38 PM, Ricky C wrote:

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 7:47:00 PM UTC-4, amdx wrote:
On 5/1/2020 5:50 PM, Ricky C wrote:
On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 3:48:50 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

There are definitely exceptions. The recommendation was for stocks in general, say index 500 funds.

Dan

Why would anyone capable of reading and thinking buy into funds and let someone else make your investing decisions for you? That's why I posted the link to xkcd to point out professional investors have no better track record than yourself!

I have a pretty good investment record having made over half a million on stocks. I'm happy with my fees as well. All in all I give myself an A++ rating on my high growth fund.


The S&P 500 is an index, it is not letting someone else make your
investing decisions.

That's exactly what it is if you buy a fund based on the index. The index may not have high volatility, but it does change from time to time and you are not the one making the decisions.

It's all of no point either way. What is important is that what an index has done over the last year, or 3 years or 5 years means diddly squat for investing going forward. If you could invest in a fund going backwards, that would be great! Then the histories would be all you need.


I have a pretty good investment record having made over half a
million >on stocks.
My silly index investing in 3500 companies made almost twice that from
2012 to 2017, 6 years of the Obama administration. And during that time
I paid $0 taxes on those gains.


So you didn't cash them out and so have not made the money you claim?

Well, that is true, but I could tomorrow. My net worth statement does
show the gains though.


What index is this btw? How did you avoid the taxes?

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, VTSAX

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VTSAX



But the your good investment record means little, if you started with $2M.
I'm happier with my 0.04% fee. Vanguard's VTSAX

Exactly. But I have posted a lot about my trading history. It's all there. What did you start with to make your million?

Ya, I usually talk money on anonymous FIRE forums. I got carried away
here.
Let me just say, it would have been hard to lose money investing in
the market from the beginning of 2009 to the end of 2019. The Nasdaq
rose from 1571 to 8604. $100k invested would be worth over $600k.
Well, I guess you could trade stocks and lose, but if you just bought
the market and held on, you did well, very well.

I do agree with you on paying someone to manage your money, it has
been shown in several studies the market beats investment managers over
time.
Managers hit home runs for a couple years and then go backwards and end
up getting beat by the market.

That's why I only invest in companies I know a great deal about.

That's great for you, I just don't believe I could ever have enough
knowledge to know when to buy and when to get out. First, I don't want
to study that much, second how many times have the managers in a company
lost money they had invested in the company they work at and watch every
single day, the are watching what happens under their nose and still
don't see a problem. How can an outsider without any internal knowledge
have a clue. I just don't see it.
I like the idea of diversification.
Also, I know people that tell me all about how much they made on this
or made on that, but I never hear about how much they lost on this one
or that one, Everything is a winner.

AMD was another of my winner picks. But I never invested in it because I didn't have liquid funds when it was ripe. Later there was the time I told my friend to dump his AMD because they had lost enough ground to Intel they would not be able to regain it (he didn't). Shortly after that AMD won a $2 billion suit against Intel in the EU. lol Now they have dumped most of their fabs (the part that they couldn't keep up with Intel on) and are doing well using the big fab houses. I guess that's the industry now. The nature of silicon processing has made it too expensive to compete with the contract fabs who have the expertise and market share to be the 600 lb gorilla right next to Intel.

BTW, while not all of my were winners, the ones that were typically gain 200 to 300%. Like I said, Tesla has huge potential, upside mostly but shorts make a lot of money on it to, it's all just timing. But long term being long is more sure, you just have to wait long enough. Like I've said, in two months I expect 2nd quarter results to be pretty crappy. Then there is Musk's tweeting which seems to be whacking the stock at the moment. Musk and Trump have a bit in common.

Ya, you aren't in control of his tweets, he could write something
stupid and cost people millions.

With my fund of 3500 stocks, I'm sure I have a few of those 200% and
300% winners, just not as many shares.

btw, I did something not in my buy and hold plan. And not something I
would tell my kids to do. On 2-28 I sold a bunch of shares in my tax
deferred accounts and then on 3-25 I bought them back 17% cheaper.
I got lucky, it could have went against me.
The problem with selling is you don't know when to get back in.
Buy and hold is much better, There is one study that found dead people
did the best in the market. Forgotten funds just grew and earned
untouched.
I am concerned about what is going to happen when the media hammers on
the Gross Domestic Product being down 48% (or whatever) night after
night, in an effort to unseat Trump.
I think even though they say this is baked into the market price, I
have to wonder wht effect it will have.

 

[dcaster@krl.org]

On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 11:28:57 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:

On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:58:25 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 4:31:25 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:


I highly suggest that you not talk to your broker if it costs you any money.
Hi Dan, you certainly have a lot of advice. :^)
Let me first say I'm neither as smart nor as rich as you.
(again with the smile. :^)

Buy the book " A Random Walk Down Wall Street " That is my best advice.

There has been some studies that show that the average amateur buys when the market is high and sells when the market is low.

I guess I was just feeling that it looks like a very uncertain
situation in the future. And I'd like to tuck ~1/2 our
stock money away for a while... gold seems like the traditional
choice.

George H.

Something with intrinsic value. Partial ownership in a solid enterprise ....

Sounds like buying stock.

Best if you buy an index 500 fund from Vanguard, Schwab, or Fidelity. Low cost and diversified. Even a company like IBM or GE can run into problems. Buying a fund like a index 500 pretty much guarantees you average returns, but that is pretty darn good.

Dan

If the thing has intrinsic value, and we continue to respe. ct property
rights (the right to own something and not have it confiscated), then
things with intrinsic value should maintain their relative value,
regardless.

But if government starts taking assets -- savings, investments, land,
companies, etc. (and they have many insidious methods and . pretexts for
doing so) -- then it's time to buy a big lump of gold and try nibbling
a little chunk of it every night, to see it if fills your . belly.

Cheers,
James Arthur

Right. I should take my money out of the stock market... hold it
in cash for a bit... and invest in test equipment during the next
sell off.
(there's no way I can use that much test equipment. :^)

I've got a nice house, sm. barn, nice land...
Well the land is sorta crappy for farming*.. heavy clay..
But there's a beautiful creek that runs along the back end.
(1/2 of it's trees/woods and the other half is slowly turning
into trees. :^)

And then gold, Right. Is gold high now?
(or some other precious metal?)
I was going to ask my broker, I have no idea, but my
first guess is he's not going to sugg> > est gold.
(but what do I know?)
.

Gold does not generate income.


If you will not buy the book, then get it from the local library.

Dan

 

[Ricky C]

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 9:58:50 PM UTC-4, amdx wrote:

On 5/1/2020 7:38 PM, Ricky C wrote:
On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 7:47:00 PM UTC-4, amdx wrote:
On 5/1/2020 5:50 PM, Ricky C wrote:
On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 3:48:50 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

There are definitely exceptions. The recommendation was for stocks in general, say index 500 funds.

Dan

Why would anyone capable of reading and thinking buy into funds and let someone else make your investing decisions for you? That's why I posted the link to xkcd to point out professional investors have no better track record than yourself!

I have a pretty good investment record having made over half a million on stocks. I'm happy with my fees as well. All in all I give myself an A++ rating on my high growth fund.


The S&P 500 is an index, it is not letting someone else make your
investing decisions.

That's exactly what it is if you buy a fund based on the index. The index may not have high volatility, but it does change from time to time and you are not the one making the decisions.

It's all of no point either way. What is important is that what an index has done over the last year, or 3 years or 5 years means diddly squat for investing going forward. If you could invest in a fund going backwards, that would be great! Then the histories would be all you need.


I have a pretty good investment record having made over half a
million >on stocks.
My silly index investing in 3500 companies made almost twice that from
2012 to 2017, 6 years of the Obama administration. And during that time
I paid $0 taxes on those gains.


So you didn't cash them out and so have not made the money you claim?

Well, that is true, but I could tomorrow. My net worth statement does
show the gains though.

While bonds don't normally change rapidly, other than perhaps up when the market is tanking, stock indexes can change very rapidly as has been very clear the last few months. So until you cash them out there are no profits.

That's why I cashed out much of my Tesla stock. I could have made more, but I want to take what I can when I have little confidence in the short term.. I cleared $180k and had another $130k on the books, two days ago! Now the book gain is only $116k. I expect it will continue to fluctuate before the end of the month.

What index is this btw? How did you avoid the taxes?

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, VTSAX
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VTSAX



But the your good investment record means little, if you started with $2M.
I'm happier with my 0.04% fee. Vanguard's VTSAX

Exactly. But I have posted a lot about my trading history. It's all there. What did you start with to make your million?

Ya, I usually talk money on anonymous FIRE forums. I got carried away
here.
Let me just say, it would have been hard to lose money investing in
the market from the beginning of 2009 to the end of 2019. The Nasdaq
rose from 1571 to 8604. $100k invested would be worth over $600k.
Well, I guess you could trade stocks and lose, but if you just bought
the market and held on, you did well, very well.

Yes, following such a huge drop it's usually easy to win. But what now? The economy recovered from the recession by 2014 or so. What are funds going to do now?

Owning funds in 2005-6 would have been very bad after a year or two. Not many saw the real estate collapse coming, but it wasn't hugely rapid. So anyone who is realistic about the market could have picked winners or just gone to bonds.

That's the point. Funds provide no safety at all. They are a compromise based on what others decide.

I do agree with you on paying someone to manage your money, it has
been shown in several studies the market beats investment managers over
time.
Managers hit home runs for a couple years and then go backwards and end
up getting beat by the market.

That's why I only invest in companies I know a great deal about.

That's great for you, I just don't believe I could ever have enough
knowledge to know when to buy and when to get out. First, I don't want
to study that much, second how many times have the managers in a company
lost money they had invested in the company they work at and watch every
single day, the are watching what happens under their nose and still
don't see a problem.

Watching every day isn't what gets knowledge and working for a company seldom provides any important information about it unless you have info you aren't supposed to trade on. That can get you into trouble. Companies often BS the employees so they don't leave in times of trouble.

How can an outsider without any internal knowledge
have a clue. I just don't see it.

I don't know what to tell you. Information is available. Often it is more about knowing what is important.

My success with AMD was based on recognizing the importance of average selling price (ASP) and how that related to the relative speed of the CPUs. While the analysts talk about that, they didn't seem to recognize how useful it was. When AMD was about to release a new architecture that was benchmarking faster than Intel's CPUs, it was clear AMD would become the new speed king and transition from bleeding red ink to being very profitable... for six months to a year. Just long enough for the stock price to jump by 3x or 4x depending on when you bought. Three times I saw this and the market didn't.

Anyone could have seen this and acted on it. You don't have to bet the farm. I've always found it very profitable to invest in higher "risk" stocks when I knew something the market seemed to be ignoring.

Essentially the Tesla stock is similar. They are clearly the technology winner in EVs and EVs are the future of autos. They will be selling every car and truck they build for the next couple of years, so HUGE growth opportunities. But like I said, lots of volatility.

I like the idea of diversification.
Also, I know people that tell me all about how much they made on this
or made on that, but I never hear about how much they lost on this one
or that one, Everything is a winner.

I've mentioned that not all my picks were big winners. One paid some 3x what I paid, but it took forever for them to be bought and so the equivalent interest rate was around 5%. Not the big win I had hoped for.

Another company I invested in crapped out and I lost a bunch. But overall stocks have been a huge win and I learn something from every pick.

AMD was another of my winner picks. But I never invested in it because I didn't have liquid funds when it was ripe. Later there was the time I told my friend to dump his AMD because they had lost enough ground to Intel they would not be able to regain it (he didn't). Shortly after that AMD won a $2 billion suit against Intel in the EU. lol Now they have dumped most of their fabs (the part that they couldn't keep up with Intel on) and are doing well using the big fab houses. I guess that's the industry now. The nature of silicon processing has made it too expensive to compete with the contract fabs who have the expertise and market share to be the 600 lb gorilla right next to Intel.

BTW, while not all of my were winners, the ones that were typically gain 200 to 300%. Like I said, Tesla has huge potential, upside mostly but shorts make a lot of money on it to, it's all just timing. But long term being long is more sure, you just have to wait long enough. Like I've said, in two months I expect 2nd quarter results to be pretty crappy. Then there is Musk's tweeting which seems to be whacking the stock at the moment. Musk and Trump have a bit in common.


Ya, you aren't in control of his tweets, he could write something
stupid and cost people millions.

He did just today. Said Tesla was overpriced! LOL The worst part is he will get in big trouble over that and he may lose his CEO position. He already lost his chairman of the board position over tweets which he might have kept if he hadn't badmouthed the SEC on top of everything.

But the company won't go down because he isn't at the helm. I think it could be a long term improvement, much like getting rid of Trump.

With my fund of 3500 stocks, I'm sure I have a few of those 200% and
300% winners, just not as many shares.

That's the sticky wicket now, innit? Letting someone pick 3500 stocks to buy will surely get you some winners, but god! Think of how many loser, barely keeping up with inflation crap stocks are in there!!!

But if you put money in in 2009 or something when the market was way down, as you say, picking winners is not hard at all!

btw, I did something not in my buy and hold plan. And not something I
would tell my kids to do. On 2-28 I sold a bunch of shares in my tax
deferred accounts and then on 3-25 I bought them back 17% cheaper.
I got lucky, it could have went against me.
The problem with selling is you don't know when to get back in.
Buy and hold is much better, There is one study that found dead people
did the best in the market. Forgotten funds just grew and earned
untouched.

Absolutely. Buying is every bit as important as selling. I've done ok with Tesla buying as it went down (if I liked it at $300, I should love it at $200!) Other times I didn't have as much to play with so I bought a hunk and held on for the ride! I don't keep a fast riser once it's jumped up even at the risk of not getting all the gain. Tesla is the first stock I've held until it was long term capital gains. I probably would have made more money selling it all at $911 (no connection to anything, just the point where I no longer believe it would continue rising and I was pretty right). There's a 30 day rule about being out of a stock for tax purposes, but I don't recall the details. Not sure if it applies to your funds or not.

I am concerned about what is going to happen when the media hammers on
the Gross Domestic Product being down 48% (or whatever) night after
night, in an effort to unseat Trump.
I think even though they say this is baked into the market price, I
have to wonder wht effect it will have.

The market is down about 20% over six months. With many businesses being hit with lower sales and profit it will likely continue to drop short term. Once states start opening up it will likely rise, but this is the important part. I don't think the openings will end up being good. I think a lot of facilities will have the same problems as the meat packing plants with lots of illnesses. That will cause harm not just to sales, but the name brands. Do you want to buy anything from a factory that just came out of shutdown because a third of the employees were sick with COVID-19?

So I think we will see more losses in the market as a whole for a while. But it's not like I have a crystal ball showing me the future.

I had high hopes that we would see the same results as China and be well along to having this disease ramping down. But that ain't happening and instead of people being vocal about making it a priority they seem to be going with the flow even if they don't think it is a good idea. What we have is nearly the worse possible result for both the disease and the economy.

We fucked up the Vietnam war too as well as the war on drugs and lots of other things we try to control. The central theme seems to be that hubris runs amuck rather than learning from our mistakes.

--

Rick C.

+-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Ricky C]

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 10:33:16 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

Gold does not generate income.

Neither do a lot of companies. But the stock appreciates just as gold appreciates. It's called capital gains and is the basis for most of the wealth in the world. Bill Gates didn't get rich from the dividends, he got rich mostly from buying low (or just creating the stock) and selling high.

--

Rick C.

+-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Clifford Heath]

On 2/5/20 1:08 pm, Ricky C wrote:

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 10:33:16 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
Gold does not generate income.
Neither do a lot of companies. But the stock appreciates just as gold appreciates. It's called capital gains

Stock-holders might call it that, but if the stock appreciates, that's
mostly due to one of three things:
* the company has made capital investments (spent its earnings on
something durable or worthwhile)
* "retained earnings" i.e. earnings that have not been distributed as
dividends.
* Changes in market sentiment, which can go either way.

My point is that company earnings doesn't have to get distributed as
cash. It's still income.

Gold doesn't generate earnings, but being a commodity, demand for it
varies, and sentiment goes up and down.

CH

 

[Ricky C]

On Saturday, May 2, 2020 at 12:28:08 AM UTC-4, Clifford Heath wrote:

On 2/5/20 1:08 pm, Ricky C wrote:
On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 10:33:16 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
Gold does not generate income.
Neither do a lot of companies. But the stock appreciates just as gold appreciates. It's called capital gains

Stock-holders might call it that, but if the stock appreciates, that's
mostly due to one of three things:
* the company has made capital investments (spent its earnings on
something durable or worthwhile)
* "retained earnings" i.e. earnings that have not been distributed as
dividends.
* Changes in market sentiment, which can go either way.

My point is that company earnings doesn't have to get distributed as
cash. It's still income.

Gold doesn't generate earnings, but being a commodity, demand for it
varies, and sentiment goes up and down.

The point is, which you seem to completely miss, is that capital gains only requires one thing, gains in the capital value. Stocks often gain value because of, as you say, "market sentiment". In fact, that is essentially the only reason why stocks gain value. Companies may be making excellent profits, but if one of the many quarterly numbers misses by a penny, the stock drops precipitously. Not because the company value has declined in any calculable way, but because the "market" was disappointed.

Yes, you have described the value of gold well, but it's not substantially different from any traded commodity or stock, the value depends on what people are willing to pay for it and so does it's "capital" gain or loss. There is little point in distinguishing the two.

One difference is that while in general commodities are in plentiful supply, they typically do have commercial use and when the demand for that use varies, so too does the commodity value. Gold is a commodity with commercial value and it always responds to supply and demand.

--

Rick C.

++- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Clifford Heath]

On 2/5/20 3:12 pm, Ricky C wrote:

On Saturday, May 2, 2020 at 12:28:08 AM UTC-4, Clifford Heath wrote:
On 2/5/20 1:08 pm, Ricky C wrote:
On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 10:33:16 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
Gold does not generate income.
Neither do a lot of companies. But the stock appreciates just as gold appreciates. It's called capital gains

Stock-holders might call it that, but if the stock appreciates, that's
mostly due to one of three things:
* the company has made capital investments (spent its earnings on
something durable or worthwhile)
* "retained earnings" i.e. earnings that have not been distributed as
dividends.
* Changes in market sentiment, which can go either way.

My point is that company earnings doesn't have to get distributed as
cash. It's still income.

Gold doesn't generate earnings, but being a commodity, demand for it
varies, and sentiment goes up and down.

The point is, which you seem to completely miss, is that capital gains only requires one thing, gains in the capital value.

Stocks often gain value because of, as you say, "market sentiment". In fact, that is essentially the only reason why stocks gain value.

Bulldust! People invest in companies because they *produce* value; ore
from a mining license, steel from ore, washing machines from steel, etc.

Some companies choose to pay out the created value as dividends, some
build market share, some just bank the cash for future projects, and
some buy back their own shares to boost the value of the remaining ones.

None of that change in value is related to market sentiment, or the
whole market would be *a zero sum game* - which it's not.


> Companies may be making excellent profits, but if one of the many quarterly numbers misses by a penny, the stock drops precipitously. Not because the company value has declined in any calculable way, but because the "market" was disappointed.

That happens in the short term, but the in the long term it steadies
out. And even in the short term, sudden changes are due to *unpredicted*
variations. The market is generally pretty good about making
predictions, so a stock only jumps when a prediction proves wrong.

> Yes, you have described the value of gold well, but it's not substantially different from any traded commodity or stock, the value depends on what people are willing to pay for it and so does it's "capital" gain or loss. There is little point in distinguishing the two.

The difference with gold is it's historical (sentimental) place, and in
the fact that it's durable but not very much gets used, and not much
gets mined each year. Common salt is a commodity too, but it can be
produced in whatever amount might be needed for fairly low cost. The
same is not true of gold - both supply side and demand side is rather
special compared to other commodities.

CH

 

[Ricky C]

On Saturday, May 2, 2020 at 3:42:24 AM UTC-4, Clifford Heath wrote:

On 2/5/20 3:12 pm, Ricky C wrote:
On Saturday, May 2, 2020 at 12:28:08 AM UTC-4, Clifford Heath wrote:
On 2/5/20 1:08 pm, Ricky C wrote:
On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 10:33:16 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
Gold does not generate income.
Neither do a lot of companies. But the stock appreciates just as gold appreciates. It's called capital gains

Stock-holders might call it that, but if the stock appreciates, that's
mostly due to one of three things:
* the company has made capital investments (spent its earnings on
something durable or worthwhile)
* "retained earnings" i.e. earnings that have not been distributed as
dividends.
* Changes in market sentiment, which can go either way.

My point is that company earnings doesn't have to get distributed as
cash. It's still income.

Gold doesn't generate earnings, but being a commodity, demand for it
varies, and sentiment goes up and down.

The point is, which you seem to completely miss, is that capital gains only requires one thing, gains in the capital value.

Stocks often gain value because of, as you say, "market sentiment". In fact, that is essentially the only reason why stocks gain value.

Bulldust! People invest in companies because they *produce* value; ore
from a mining license, steel from ore, washing machines from steel, etc.

Bulldust indeed! Investors don't get ore or steel or anything else a company may make. They get appreciation of the stock value and/or dividends from direct payments of profit.

These days most investors are looking for the value of the stock to increase and are very happy to buy at the beginning of a bubble and sell as values rise for absolutely no reason. That actually happens every day, stock prices run up and down not based on any real change in the profitability of the company, but just perception which often doesn't even last the day.

Some companies choose to pay out the created value as dividends, some
build market share, some just bank the cash for future projects, and
some buy back their own shares to boost the value of the remaining ones.

All largely irrelevant to the issue of stock prices at any given point. Of course a company that is making money will garner a better price than if they don't, but mostly because the perception is the company is doing well even though the past profits mean nothing about future profits which determine the price you can get for selling the stock after holding it.

The truth is many, many companies get huge prices without making a penny. How long did Amazon go without profit, etc. Yes, they were building the company, but with literally no profit, just continued investment. At that point they were operating as a Ponzi scheme.

None of that change in value is related to market sentiment, or the
whole market would be *a zero sum game* - which it's not.

Actually it is. But in action it is not observable. Many, many people lose money each day in the market which supplies the money for others to make. Factor in those who invest new money and the sum will be zero.

Companies may be making excellent profits, but if one of the many quarterly numbers misses by a penny, the stock drops precipitously. Not because the company value has declined in any calculable way, but because the "market" was disappointed.

That happens in the short term, but the in the long term it steadies
out. And even in the short term, sudden changes are due to *unpredicted*
variations. The market is generally pretty good about making
predictions, so a stock only jumps when a prediction proves wrong.

So? That's my point. The market responds irrationally often. It's not about the profits, it's about the perception which is the way gold prices vary as well. Perception.

Yes, you have described the value of gold well, but it's not substantially different from any traded commodity or stock, the value depends on what people are willing to pay for it and so does it's "capital" gain or loss. There is little point in distinguishing the two.

The difference with gold is it's historical (sentimental) place, and in
the fact that it's durable but not very much gets used, and not much
gets mined each year. Common salt is a commodity too, but it can be
produced in whatever amount might be needed for fairly low cost. The
same is not true of gold - both supply side and demand side is rather
special compared to other commodities.

So?

I have no idea what your point is about Gold not producing "income". Many invest in stocks exactly the same way they invest in gold or anything else. They are not looking for profits of any kind. Tesla is a perfect example.. They are barely making any profit and that is an inconsequential part of the value of the company. Investors are banking on the appreciation of the company. Period. That will come mostly from all the hype, but also because they are selling lots of cars, even if they don't make much money doing it. Investors expect the stock price to appreciate and that is no different from investing in gold.

--

Rick C.

+++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[dcaster@krl.org]

On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:23:53 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:39:40 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:00:38 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.


Hmm.. OK I tend to be a frugal type. But I wonder if everyone (in US)
will be a bit more frugal after this? And that will mean less money
moving around... lower GDP...
I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

George H.



Get a copy of " A Random Walk down Wall Street " Buy it used off Abe or Amazon.

I would not recommend selling stocks right now.

Dan

I would also recommend you think about it and not trust my recommendations. This is not the usual time.

Dan

 

On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:58:25 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 4:31:25 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:

I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

Something with intrinsic value, something people want and need, is
as good as you can do for storing value. That can include partial
ownership in a solid enterprise, too.


I highly suggest that you not talk to your broker if it costs you any money.

Something with intrinsic value. Partial ownership in a solid enterprise .....

Sounds like buying stock.

Yes, that's what I meant. Unless you're expecting total permanent
collapse, there will always be people who need things, and people
working in groups called 'companies' to supply those needs.

Best if you buy an index 500 fund from Vanguard, Schwab, or Fidelity. Low cost and diversified. Even a company like IBM or GE can run into problems. Buying a fund like a index 500 pretty much guarantees you average returns, but that is pretty darn good.

Dan

Cheers,
James Arthur