Slot Car the Freeways. Fuel Is Already Spiraling 1 cent/day

[Rob Dekker]

"AZDuffman" <srduffy1126@gmail.com> wrote in message news:1abf7ca0-a8fd-4581-b00f-f75aa74305d6@g37g2000yqn.googlegroups.com...
.....

Not sure where Bret gets the idea that the electricity would be free.
But there are two reasons why electric vehicles are cheaper to run than ICEs
:

(1) Electric power can be generated at higher efficiency than ICEs in
traditional cars.
Electric power plants run at 40% or more, ICEs run at 20% or less.
(2) Electric power can be generated from many different sources (coal,
nuclear, nat.gas., hydro, renewables etc), while ICEs need liquid fuel
(derived from oil). The cost of these other sources is considerably less
(per BTU) than oil. That is one reason why electricity is NOT generated from
liquid fuels. It would simply be too expensive.

These two reasons result in a 2-4X reduction in cost for electric powered
vehicles versus gasoline (or other liquid fuel) vehicles.
That means you 'pump' electric grid power for less than $1/gallon
equivalent.

That's it in gross terms why electric drive is cheaper than gasoline
vehicles.
All we need is a good, low cost battery and some car manufacturers that want
to make these vehicles.

The battery has always been the thing and IMHO always will. Power
just seems to not want to be stored.

That is a very general statement and kind of throwing out the baby with the bathwater.

Consider that the first line of hybrids is already out (with Nickel Metal Hydrate batteries), and the second line of will be Plug-in
hybrids.
And I claim that current battery technology is ready for that scenario :

First of all, there will be no fast recharges for these PHEVs and not because of battery limitations.
There is no high-power re-charging infrastructure in place currently and the grid cannot handle massive fast vehicle recharges, to
mention just two of these challenges unrelated to batteries. So the first PHEV batteries will be charged off-peak (overnight) in
people's garages.

Second, for plug-in hybrids, there is a (small) ICE on-board, which solves the problem of limited range of affordable electrical
storage.
Your first 40 miles (or so) will be all electric, after that the ICE will kick in for long range. That is a good (cost and
capabilities) ballance between battery capabilities and ICE capabilities. When successfull on a large scale, this scenario will make
a significant dent (up to 50%) in our vehicular oil usage (DOE reports).

For this scenario (slow charges and limited 40 mile electric range) there is a spectrum of battery technologies available.
Batteries technologies like LiFePO4 (Lithium Iron Phosphate), ZEBRA (NaNiCl), Li-ion, Li-polymer and even NiMH all are suitable for
use in Plug-In Hybrid EVs, albeit each with their own advantages and disadvantages.

My opinion is that we are currently entered a transition phase from gasoline power to electric power and this will last at least 20
years regardless of which ultimate solution will win. Batteries are ready for this phase of the transition and will get better and
cheaper over time and with volume production.

Solutions like "slotting the freeways" and "5 min EV charging stations" are not even an option right now (immense infrastructure and
grid load issues). They are also not necessary : Oil supplies will slowly reduce after Peak Oil and there will be periods (like
right now) when consumption is again below production, with resulting low gasoiline prices. During such periods there will be little
incentive for anyone to pay anything extra for 'plug-in' electric drive. So I think we will see an 'evolution' rather than a
'revolution' and not just because of battery technology limitations.

Your post only gets half the
advantages to electric, though. Electric motots are "off" when
sitting while ICEs must idle. Second, anyone can watch and see that
an electric motor gets up to full power faster than an ICE, and keeps
at its full power easier than an ICE keeps at the top of its power
curve.

But it still all comes down to storing the power. They have been
promising better batteries for 40 years now, 100 + if you go all the
way back. Again, I just don't think it will happen. GM has the best
idea so far with the Volt. Plug-in when you can, charge it locomotive-
style when you must.

Plug-in is definitely the next big thing, if oil prices want to go up again.
So the Volt is nice, but I wonder if GM we be producing them....

>

 

[Bret Cahill]

Solutions like "slotting the freeways" and "5 min EV charging stations" are not even an option right now (immense infrastructure and
grid load issues).

1. The savings from not replacing batteries so often comes out to be
a one time $20 million/mile. You can build a lot of windmills and
rebuild a lot of roadbed with that kind of money. Again it needs to
be spreadsheeted before any decisions can be made. Remember in any
spread sheet calculation, the Fed won't be allowed to raise interest
rates for at least a decade. Frank and Pelosi are running everything
which was the original intent of Art. I, Sec 8.

2. The infrastructure doesn't need to be built all at once. Just
start out with a few freeways critical to the nation's food
distribution network. Peterbilt already has a "slot ready" hybrid-
electric semi truck. Add "steering control" to "cruise control" as a
tech ready option.

3. Grid load will actually be somewhat _higher_ with battery-only as
direct electrification is more efficient.

4. If you want MPG a diesel rabbit will do almost as good as a
Prius. The real selling point of the hybrid electric isn't 2X more
mpg but 6X + more mpg.

This advantage is 3X more cost effective with electrified road beds
than battery only.

We need to start this now while we still have some fuel left at a
reasonable price to get the job done. Wait and it'll be too late.

They are also not necessary : Oil supplies will slowly reduce

You have two curves, supply and demand, with opposite steep slopes.
It's a train wreck and it isn't even in slow motion.

after Peak Oil and there will be periods (like
right now) when consumption is again below production, with resulting low gasoiline prices. During such periods there will be little
incentive for anyone to pay anything extra for 'plug-in' electric drive.

Public spending is the _only_ way to get the economy going as no one
else has any money.

Transportantion solutions were never like software or cell phone
startups anyway.

You cannot move bllions of tons/hour with a gadget a tinkerer made in
his basement.

So I think we will see an 'evolution' rather than a
'revolution' and not just because of battery technology limitations.

Do the numbers and tinkering just won't do.

.. . .

Plug-in is definitely the next big thing, if oil prices want to go up again.

"If"?

"IF"?

They are already spiraling in the deepest part of the Great Recession.

What does anyone THINK will happen after 10 years of low interest
rates?

So the Volt is nice, but I wonder if GM we be producing them....

A year ago I told some middle school kids that they'ld be paying $10/
gallon in 4 years. A stunned but astute 7th grader asked, "what's GM
going to do?"

I guess he knows the answer now.


Bret Cahill

 

[Bruce Richmond]

On Apr 17, 9:02 pm, Bret Cahill <BretCah...@aol.com> wrote:

Solutions like "slotting the freeways" and "5 min EV charging stations" are not even an option right now (immense infrastructure and
grid load issues).

1.  The savings from not replacing batteries so often comes out to be
a one time $20 million/mile.  You can build a lot of windmills and
rebuild a lot of roadbed with that kind of money.  Again it needs to
be spreadsheeted before any decisions can be made.  Remember in any
spread sheet calculation, the Fed won't be allowed to raise interest
rates for at least a decade.  Frank and Pelosi are running everything
which was the original intent of Art. I, Sec 8.

2.  The infrastructure doesn't need to be built all at once.  Just
start out with a few freeways critical to the nation's food
distribution network.  Peterbilt already has a "slot ready" hybrid-
electric semi truck.  Add "steering control" to "cruise control" as a
tech ready option.

3.  Grid load will actually be somewhat _higher_ with battery-only as
direct electrification is more efficient.

4.  If you want MPG a diesel rabbit will do almost as good as a
Prius.  The real selling point of the hybrid electric isn't 2X more
mpg but 6X + more mpg.

This advantage is 3X more cost effective with electrified road beds
than battery only.

We need to start this now while we still have some fuel left at a
reasonable price to get the job done.  Wait and it'll be too late.

They are also not necessary : Oil supplies will slowly reduce

You have two curves, supply and demand, with opposite steep slopes.
It's a train wreck and it isn't even in slow motion.

after Peak Oil and there will be periods (like
right now) when consumption is again below production, with resulting low gasoiline prices.  During such periods there will be little
incentive for anyone to pay anything extra for 'plug-in' electric drive..

Public spending is the _only_ way to get the economy going as no one
else has any money.

Transportantion solutions were never like software or cell phone
startups anyway.

You cannot move bllions of tons/hour with a gadget a tinkerer made in
his basement.

So I think we will see an 'evolution' rather than a
'revolution' and not just because of battery technology limitations.

Do the numbers and tinkering just won't do.

. . .

Plug-in is definitely the next big thing, if oil prices want to go up again.

"If"?

"IF"?

They are already spiraling in the deepest part of the Great Recession.

What does anyone THINK will happen after 10 years of low interest
rates?

So the Volt is nice, but I wonder if GM we be producing them....

A year ago I told some middle school kids that they'ld be paying $10/
gallon in 4 years.  A stunned but astute 7th grader asked, "what's GM
going to do?"

I guess he knows the answer now.

Bret Cahill

File chapter 11?

When the Volt concept car came out it looked sporty and the price was
going to be reasonable. Now it looks like another stupid SUV and they
are asking twice as much for it. For me that took it from "Why are
they taking so long to bring it out? I want one now!" to "No thanks".

 

Solutions like "slotting the freeways" and "5 min EV charging stations" are not even an option right now (immense infrastructure and
grid load issues).

1. The savings from not replacing batteries so often comes out to be
a one time $20 million/mile. You can build a lot of windmills and
rebuild a lot of roadbed with that kind of money. Again it needs to
be spreadsheeted before any decisions can be made. Remember in any
spread sheet calculation, the Fed won't be allowed to raise interest
rates for at least a decade. Frank and Pelosi are running everything
which was the original intent of Art. I, Sec 8.

2. The infrastructure doesn't need to be built all at once. Just
start out with a few freeways critical to the nation's food
distribution network. Peterbilt already has a "slot ready" hybrid-
electric semi truck. Add "steering control" to "cruise control" as a
tech ready option.

3. Grid load will actually be somewhat _higher_ with battery-only as
direct electrification is more efficient.

4. If you want MPG a diesel rabbit will do almost as good as a
Prius. The real selling point of the hybrid electric isn't 2X more
mpg but 6X + more mpg.

This advantage is 3X more cost effective with electrified road beds
than battery only.

We need to start this now while we still have some fuel left at a
reasonable price to get the job done. Wait and it'll be too late.

They are also not necessary : Oil supplies will slowly reduce

You have two curves, supply and demand, with opposite steep slopes.
It's a train wreck and it isn't even in slow motion.

after Peak Oil and there will be periods (like
right now) when consumption is again below production, with resulting low gasoiline prices. During such periods there will be little
incentive for anyone to pay anything extra for 'plug-in' electric drive.

Public spending is the _only_ way to get the economy going as no one
else has any money.

Transportantion solutions were never like software or cell phone
startups anyway.

You cannot move bllions of tons/hour with a gadget a tinkerer made in
his basement.

So I think we will see an 'evolution' rather than a
'revolution' and not just because of battery technology limitations.

Do the numbers and tinkering just won't do.

. . .

Plug-in is definitely the next big thing, if oil prices want to go up again.

"If"?

"IF"?

They are already spiraling in the deepest part of the Great Recession.

What does anyone THINK will happen after 10 years of low interest
rates?

So the Volt is nice, but I wonder if GM we be producing them....

A year ago I told some middle school kids that they'ld be paying $10/
gallon in 4 years. A stunned but astute 7th grader asked, "what's GM
going to do?"

I guess he knows the answer now.

Bret Cahill

File chapter 11?

When the Volt concept car came out it looked sporty and the price was
going to be reasonable. Now it looks like another stupid SUV and they
are asking twice as much for it. For me that took it from "Why are
they taking so long to bring it out? I want one now!" to "No thanks".

Congress needs to make it easy for new auto companies and an after
market drive train industry to enter the market.

Just as all semi rig tractors have the same 5th wheel, just as all
computer printers use the same cable, all vehicles built in the U. S.
should have interchangeable, easy to swap out drive trains, at least
per vehicle class.

It's easy to build a slot car EV. That's something that really
_could_ be built home brew in a garage. If GM can't do it cost
effectively then GM may fold but at at least Americans can still have
cost effective sustainable transportation.

We need to ram one point so far down the throats of Congress critters
that, like the Guillotine, it'll never be forgotten:

The auto companies exist for America, not America for the auto
companies. If GM folds then Congress needs to take steps to insure
that the former auto workers have the basic necessities, health care,
food and housing, etc., along will all other Americans but more of the
same just ain't gittin' it.


Bret Cahill

 

[zzbunker@netscape.net]

On Apr 25, 1:00 pm, Bret_E_Cah...@yahoo.com wrote:

Solutions like "slotting the freeways" and "5 min EV charging stations" are not even an option right now (immense infrastructure and
grid load issues).
1.  The savings from not replacing batteries so often comes out to be
a one time $20 million/mile.  You can build a lot of windmills and
rebuild a lot of roadbed with that kind of money.  Again it needs to
be spreadsheeted before any decisions can be made.  Remember in any
spread sheet calculation, the Fed won't be allowed to raise interest
rates for at least a decade.  Frank and Pelosi are running everything
which was the original intent of Art. I, Sec 8.
2.  The infrastructure doesn't need to be built all at once.  Just
start out with a few freeways critical to the nation's food
distribution network.  Peterbilt already has a "slot ready" hybrid-
electric semi truck.  Add "steering control" to "cruise control" as a
tech ready option.
3.  Grid load will actually be somewhat _higher_ with battery-only as
direct electrification is more efficient.
4.  If you want MPG a diesel rabbit will do almost as good as a
Prius.  The real selling point of the hybrid electric isn't 2X more
mpg but 6X + more mpg.
This advantage is 3X more cost effective with electrified road beds
than battery only.
We need to start this now while we still have some fuel left at a
reasonable price to get the job done.  Wait and it'll be too late.
They are also not necessary : Oil supplies will slowly reduce
You have two curves, supply and demand, with opposite steep slopes.
It's a train wreck and it isn't even in slow motion.
after Peak Oil and there will be periods (like
right now) when consumption is again below production, with resulting low gasoiline prices.  During such periods there will be little
incentive for anyone to pay anything extra for 'plug-in' electric drive.
Public spending is the _only_ way to get the economy going as no one
else has any money.
Transportantion solutions were never like software or cell phone
startups anyway.
You cannot move bllions of tons/hour with a gadget a tinkerer made in
his basement.
So I think we will see an 'evolution' rather than a
'revolution' and not just because of battery technology limitations..
Do the numbers and tinkering just won't do.
. . .
Plug-in is definitely the next big thing, if oil prices want to go up again.
"If"?
"IF"?
They are already spiraling in the deepest part of the Great Recession..
What does anyone THINK will happen after 10 years of low interest
rates?
So the Volt is nice, but I wonder if GM we be producing them....
A year ago I told some middle school kids that they'ld be paying $10/
gallon in 4 years.  A stunned but astute 7th grader asked, "what's GM
going to do?"
I guess he knows the answer now.
Bret Cahill
File chapter 11?
When the Volt concept car came out it looked sporty and the price was
going to be reasonable.  Now it looks like another stupid SUV and they
are asking twice as much for it.  For me that took it from "Why are
they taking so long to bring it out?  I want one now!" to "No thanks"..

Congress needs to make it easy for new auto companies and an after
market drive train industry to enter the market.

Idiot Congress should just stick to the Olympics.
Since that's the only thing the idiots know about
economics, transportation, cars, trains, science,
engineering, education, media, technology, or medicine.

Just as all semi rig tractors have the same 5th wheel, just as all
computer printers use the same cable, all vehicles built in the U. S.
should have interchangeable, easy to swap out drive trains, at least
per vehicle class.

It's easy to build a slot car EV.  That's something that really
_could_ be built home brew in a garage.  If GM can't do it cost
effectively then GM may fold but at at least Americans can still have
cost effective sustainable transportation.

We need to ram one point so far down the throats of Congress critters
that, like the Guillotine, it'll never be forgotten:

The auto companies exist for America, not America for the auto
companies.  If GM folds then Congress needs to take steps to insure
that the former auto workers have the basic necessities, health care,
food and housing, etc., along will all other Americans but more of the
same just ain't gittin' it.

Bret Cahill- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

 

[Bret Cahill]

1. To sweeten things up private commuter EVs and hybrids won't be
metered for the electricity for the first 20 years -- whole new
meaning to the word "freeway." Only large trucks will pay in the
beginning.

2. Automakers only get federal money to build hybrids and EVs.

Bio fuel ain't gonna happen so why wait?

Seven years later:

http://uproxx.com/life/electric-transport-highway-travel-zero-emissions/