Past the peak, now what?

[dcaster@krl.org]

So how would you start the economy when the pandemic is fading?

I would keep the schools shut down until the usual time that schools start in the fall. By the time the pandemic is fading ,there would only be a few days that schools could be open before the regular end of school.

I would open domestic air traffic a couple of weeks before opening international flights. And require records being kept of the seats people were in case some one is exposed to someone who tests positive but shows no symtoms.

I would open restaurants , but would require payment by credit card for a couple of months or require keeping records of who ate when so that if there is any vius casos it would fairly easy to determine who might be exposed.

These are thoughts I had today. The main thought is I would spend some time thinking about the best way to start up life after the pandemic fades.

Dan

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 11:17:54 PM UTC+10, dca...@krl.org wrote:

So how would you start the economy when the pandemic is fading?

I would keep the schools shut down until the usual time that schools start in the fall. By the time the pandemic is fading ,there would only be a few days that schools could be open before the regular end of school.

I would open domestic air traffic a couple of weeks before opening international flights. And require records being kept of the seats people were in case some one is exposed to someone who tests positive but shows no symtoms.

I would open restaurants , but would require payment by credit card for a couple of months or require keeping records of who ate when so that if there were any virus cases it would fairly easy to determine who might be exposed.

These are thoughts I had today. The main thought is I would spend some time thinking about the best way to start up life after the pandemic fades.

The more fundamental thought is that you don't take a community out of lockdown until you are pretty sure that here aren't any infectious people around - which would be a fortnight after the last local case had been detected.

You'd define a community as people who interact closely enough to pass on an infection, and you'd have borders that kept people out from adjacent communities who hadn't been free of new infection for a fortnight.

You'd probably lay off large gatherings - church services, theatrical events, sports events, election rallies - for a bit longer.

You can't really do useful contact tracing and isolate potential new infectees if an infected person turns up with one of them in their recent history.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[dcaster@krl.org]

On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 10:37:18 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 11:17:54 PM UTC+10, dca...@krl.org wrote:
So how would you start the economy when the pandemic is fading?

My premise is that you have already decided to start removing restrictions and the question is how.

Dan

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 1:46:54 AM UTC+10, dca...@krl.org wrote:

On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 10:37:18 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 11:17:54 PM UTC+10, dca...@krl.org wrote:
So how would you start the economy when the pandemic is fading?

My premise is that you have already decided to start removing restrictions and the question is how.

But you don't specify the point at which you decide to remove restrictions, which has to influence the way in which you dismantle them.

It has to be on a community by community basis, which means that you have to decide what constitutes a community when it come to virus-swapping.

Declaring that somebody has waved a magic wand that allows you to start dismantling the restrictions isn't entirely realistic.

Since Trump is a wand-waver par excellence, you may have a problem.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Cursitor Doom]

On Sun, 05 Apr 2020 06:17:48 -0700, dcaster@krl.org wrote:

These are thoughts I had today. The main thought is I would spend
some time thinking about the best way to start up life after the
pandemic fades.

They should have just let the damn thing rip AFAICS. If they don't change
course the world economy will end up crushed and the 1930s will seem like
a cake-walk by comparison. The course they have chosen - if not altered
PDQ - will result in the worst possible outcome.

 

[dcaster@krl.org]

On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 12:29:00 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 1:46:54 AM UTC+10, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 10:37:18 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 11:17:54 PM UTC+10, dca...@krl.org wrote:
So how would you start the economy when the pandemic is fading?

My premise is that you have already decided to start removing restrictions and the question is how.

But you don't specify the point at which you decide to remove restrictions, which has to influence thewhat way in which you dismantle them.

It has to be on a community by community basis, which means that you have to decide what constitutes a community when it come to virus-swapping.
what


--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

No, _I do not specify what point the decision whatis made to start removing restrictions. _Obviously to me that point is after the hospitals are not overloaded and before every last case of the virus has been detected and treated.

If you believe that it is necessary to know what constitutes a community , explain why and then how you would start getting the economy going.

Dan

 

On Sun, 5 Apr 2020 16:40:39 -0000 (UTC), Cursitor Doom
<cd@not4mail.com> wrote:

On Sun, 05 Apr 2020 06:17:48 -0700, dcaster@krl.org wrote:

These are thoughts I had today. The main thought is I would spend
some time thinking about the best way to start up life after the
pandemic fades.


They should have just let the damn thing rip AFAICS. If they don't change
course the world economy will end up crushed and the 1930s will seem like
a cake-walk by comparison. The course they have chosen - if not altered
PDQ - will result in the worst possible outcome.

Doctors and hospitals are turning away people with real problems. Many
hospitals are way below normal use, anticipating a crush any day now.

Yes, it could have been handled a lot better, but too many people
panicked and too many exploited the fear.

"No great movements have ever resulted from appealing to reason."




--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[George Herold]

On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 9:17:54 AM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

So how would you start the economy when the pandemic is fading?

I would keep the schools shut down until the usual time that schools start in the fall. By the time the pandemic is fading ,there would only be a few days that schools could be open before the regular end of school.

I would open domestic air traffic a couple of weeks before opening international flights. And require records being kept of the seats people were in case some one is exposed to someone who tests positive but shows no symtoms.

I would open restaurants , but would require payment by credit card for a couple of months or require keeping records of who ate when so that if there is any vius casos it would fairly easy to determine who might be exposed.

These are thoughts I had today. The main thought is I would spend some time thinking about the best way to start up life after the pandemic fades.

Dan

We need good tests (infected and antibody tests). If you've had it
presumably you can go back to work.

George H.
(wearing a cowboy bandanna in public)

 

[Ricky C]

On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 3:59:45 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:

On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 9:17:54 AM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
So how would you start the economy when the pandemic is fading?

I would keep the schools shut down until the usual time that schools start in the fall. By the time the pandemic is fading ,there would only be a few days that schools could be open before the regular end of school.

I would open domestic air traffic a couple of weeks before opening international flights. And require records being kept of the seats people were in case some one is exposed to someone who tests positive but shows no symtoms.

I would open restaurants , but would require payment by credit card for a couple of months or require keeping records of who ate when so that if there is any vius casos it would fairly easy to determine who might be exposed.

These are thoughts I had today. The main thought is I would spend some time thinking about the best way to start up life after the pandemic fades.

Dan

We need good tests (infected and antibody tests). If you've had it
presumably you can go back to work.

George H.
(wearing a cowboy bandanna in public)

Do we know a person who is immune can't spread the disease the same way a doorknob or table surface does? How does being immune from the disease make a person safe to be around? Seems rather opposite to me. If they are immune you will never know they gave it to you.

Being immune isn't enough. You will need to be immune and not come in contact with not immune individuals. So we will need three classes of people, immune community, not immune-not infected community (with distancing) and the infected community.

All three classes of people would need to be isolated from one another. I can't see that working. Better to just keep the isolation as long as possible and maintain social distancing after. The fact that you are immune doesn't mean you aren't a doorknob.

Essentially now we are treating everyone as if they were infectious. Potentially the immune and infected communities could be safely merged and only the not infected put in quarantine. But that would likely mean families would need to be split up and that sounds pretty unworkable.

Am I wrong?

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 9:17:54 AM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

So how would you start the economy when the pandemic is fading?

I would keep the schools shut down until the usual time that schools start in the fall. By the time the pandemic is fading ,there would only be a few days that schools could be open before the regular end of school.

I would open domestic air traffic a couple of weeks before opening international flights. And require records being kept of the seats people were in case some one is exposed to someone who tests positive but shows no symtoms.

I would open restaurants , but would require payment by credit card for a couple of months or require keeping records of who ate when so that if there is any vius casos it would fairly easy to determine who might be exposed.

These are thoughts I had today. The main thought is I would spend some time thinking about the best way to start up life after the pandemic fades.

Dan

I'm thinking we should handle this like humanity has handled
disease outbreaks for thousand of years -- quarantine the affected
area and individuals, while the rest of the people carry on.

That's what our forebears did with typhus, yellow fever, leprosy,
tuberculosis, polio, SARS, Ebola, Hantavirus, smallpox, measles...

Back to SARS-CoV2, most of the U.S. is clear --
https://www.sylacauganews.com/

The current approach isn't meant to reduce the number of people who
ultimately get sick. In fact it may increase that number. The
current approach is meant to make sure they don't all get sick at
the same time, to prevent hospitals being overloaded.

But this means that when we all come out of hiding, whenever that
is, hungry, to hunt grubs and snakes to eat in our post-apocalyptic
society, that our vulnerable venerables will be surrounded by
asymptomatic individuals who might kill them, rather than immune
individuals whose bodies fight the illness instead.

That makes me nervous for Mom, whom I'm rather fond of.

At this point I have two friends who contracted the WuFlu. Both
recovered, both are fine. One was exhausted for a month, the other
was out-of-sorts for a week, then back to long-distance running.

The latter got it via community-spread in southern California. Thought
it was a sinus infection, WuFlu confirmed by testing. Three weeks
quarantine with wife and kids, none of whom were infected.

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 05/04/20 18:45, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Doctors and hospitals are turning away people with real problems. Many
hospitals are way below normal use, anticipating a crush any day now.

Not the doctors and hospitals in Italy and Spain

The USA is 2-3 weeks behind Italy, depending on what measure
you use.

One example, but the other graphs on that page are also
information dense.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#covid-world-norm

 

[Ricky C]

On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 4:56:10 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 9:17:54 AM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
So how would you start the economy when the pandemic is fading?

I would keep the schools shut down until the usual time that schools start in the fall. By the time the pandemic is fading ,there would only be a few days that schools could be open before the regular end of school.

I would open domestic air traffic a couple of weeks before opening international flights. And require records being kept of the seats people were in case some one is exposed to someone who tests positive but shows no symtoms.

I would open restaurants , but would require payment by credit card for a couple of months or require keeping records of who ate when so that if there is any vius casos it would fairly easy to determine who might be exposed.

These are thoughts I had today. The main thought is I would spend some time thinking about the best way to start up life after the pandemic fades.

Dan

I'm thinking we should handle this like humanity has handled
disease outbreaks for thousand of years -- quarantine the affected
area and individuals, while the rest of the people carry on.

That's what our forebears did with typhus, yellow fever, leprosy,
tuberculosis, polio, SARS, Ebola, Hantavirus, smallpox, measles...

Back to SARS-CoV2, most of the U.S. is clear --
https://www.sylacauganews.com/

The current approach isn't meant to reduce the number of people who
ultimately get sick. In fact it may increase that number. The
current approach is meant to make sure they don't all get sick at
the same time, to prevent hospitals being overloaded.

But this means that when we all come out of hiding, whenever that
is, hungry, to hunt grubs and snakes to eat in our post-apocalyptic
society, that our vulnerable venerables will be surrounded by
asymptomatic individuals who might kill them, rather than immune
individuals whose bodies fight the illness instead.

That makes me nervous for Mom, whom I'm rather fond of.

At this point I have two friends who contracted the WuFlu. Both
recovered, both are fine. One was exhausted for a month, the other
was out-of-sorts for a week, then back to long-distance running.

The latter got it via community-spread in southern California. Thought
it was a sinus infection, WuFlu confirmed by testing. Three weeks
quarantine with wife and kids, none of whom were infected.

All of the above is anecdotal and you probable can't understand why that doesn't matter. What matters is the number of people filling hospitals and ICUs and the morgues. Can you understand that?

--

Ricky C.

---- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
---- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Sun, 5 Apr 2020 22:13:36 +0100, Tom Gardner
<spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 05/04/20 18:45, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
Doctors and hospitals are turning away people with real problems. Many
hospitals are way below normal use, anticipating a crush any day now.

Not the doctors and hospitals in Italy and Spain

The USA is 2-3 weeks behind Italy, depending on what measure
you use.

One example, but the other graphs on that page are also
information dense.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#covid-world-norm

One interesting pattern, if there are patterns in all this noise, is
that the new-case rate starts out exponential but then tends to go
linear. The Hopkins site shows new US cases increasing almost linearly
since March 1.

Of course, the testing density has changed radically upward. I hope
someone does a really good analysis of this when it's over.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[whit3rd]

On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 5:22:41 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sun, 5 Apr 2020 22:13:36 +0100, Tom Gardner

One interesting pattern, if there are patterns in all this noise, is
that the new-case rate starts out exponential but then tends to go
linear

Worst model ever. The curve is sigmoid, exponential increasing at the low
end, decaying at the top end, and the most linear part is the fastest-growth
part (the least possible to handle).

No one cares about the part we're NOT planning to get to, we have to handle
the disease at the low end (few people yet infected). When/if there's
a vaccine, the whole top end of the 'natural' sigmoid doesn't happen.

For best survival, exponential growth is the part we see now, and
we won't see the rest.

Epidemiology is a science, of the observational sort (not experimental, unless
in some small microbe-infects-big-microbel variants), with good mathematical
predictions that (of course) oversimplify. Believe the scientists, or
do a credible model for yourself, but do NOT handwave and talk about
'tends to' principles. That's alchemy all over again...

 

[Ricky C]

On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 8:22:41 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology..com wrote:

On Sun, 5 Apr 2020 22:13:36 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 05/04/20 18:45, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
Doctors and hospitals are turning away people with real problems. Many
hospitals are way below normal use, anticipating a crush any day now.

Not the doctors and hospitals in Italy and Spain

The USA is 2-3 weeks behind Italy, depending on what measure
you use.

One example, but the other graphs on that page are also
information dense.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#covid-world-norm

One interesting pattern, if there are patterns in all this noise, is
that the new-case rate starts out exponential but then tends to go
linear. The Hopkins site shows new US cases increasing almost linearly
since March 1.

By "almost linear" you mean the exponential growth is lower than before, but it is still exponential. The new cases continues to rise at a rate of 9% per day and the total case number is rising at 14%. There's really nothing linear about it other than it's not as curved as before.

If it goes linear, that is a momentary transition between the exponential increase and the exponential decay as the efforts we are making start to work.

If you look at a small enough segment of any function it is approximately linear.

--

Ricky C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Sun, 5 Apr 2020 17:50:48 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
wrote:

On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 5:22:41 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 5 Apr 2020 22:13:36 +0100, Tom Gardner

One interesting pattern, if there are patterns in all this noise, is
that the new-case rate starts out exponential but then tends to go
linear

Worst model ever. The curve is sigmoid, exponential increasing at the low
end, decaying at the top end, and the most linear part is the fastest-growth
part (the least possible to handle).

Look at the new case curves for various countries:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Not many beautiful Gaussian impulses.

How could the new-case rate be both threatening and sigmoid? We'd all
die.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/

But just because they are meaningless doesn't make them uninteresting.

No one cares about the part we're NOT planning to get to, we have to handle
the disease at the low end (few people yet infected). When/if there's
a vaccine, the whole top end of the 'natural' sigmoid doesn't happen.

For best survival, exponential growth is the part we see now, and
we won't see the rest.

Epidemiology is a science, of the observational sort (not experimental, unless
in some small microbe-infects-big-microbel variants), with good mathematical
predictions that (of course) oversimplify.

20:1 in either direction. It will be fun to compare the predictions to
reality after this is over.





--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 2:40:44 AM UTC+10, Cursitor Doom wrote:

On Sun, 05 Apr 2020 06:17:48 -0700, dcaster@krl.org wrote:

These are thoughts I had today. The main thought is I would spend
some time thinking about the best way to start up life after the
pandemic fades.


They should have just let the damn thing rip AFAICS.

Cursitor Doom is a murderous half-wit.

> If they don't change course the world economy will end up crushed and the 1930s will seem like a cake-walk by comparison. The course they have chosen - if not altered PDQ - will result in the worst possible outcome.

Seems unlikely to be correct. The world economy is in suspension, rather than crushed and should be able to turn back on as soon individal areas get down to no new cases fora fortnight.

China is there already, and South Korea never had to bother to go into lock-down.

The US is in a less happy situation, but it currently has a half-wit in charge. That may need to be corrected.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 3:45:13 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sun, 5 Apr 2020 16:40:39 -0000 (UTC), Cursitor Doom
cd@not4mail.com> wrote:

On Sun, 05 Apr 2020 06:17:48 -0700, dcaster@krl.org wrote:

These are thoughts I had today. The main thought is I would spend
some time thinking about the best way to start up life after the
pandemic fades.


They should have just let the damn thing rip AFAICS. If they don't change
course the world economy will end up crushed and the 1930s will seem like
a cake-walk by comparison. The course they have chosen - if not altered
PDQ - will result in the worst possible outcome.

Doctors and hospitals are turning away people with real problems. Many
hospitals are way below normal use, anticipating a crush any day now.

Yes, it could have been handled a lot better, but too many people
panicked and too many exploited the fear.

How did that work? What's fairly obvious is that the US is in a mess now because they didn't think about what might happen in time to isolate the population as a whole from potentially infected people.

The people who should have been nervous about what might happen clearly weren't nervous enough, or thoughtful enough.

> "No great movements have ever resulted from appealing to reason."

Actually, a whole lot did, but John Larkin doesn't do reason and doesn't understand what's involved in appealing to it.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 10:52:40 AM UTC+10, Ricky C wrote:

On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 8:22:41 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 5 Apr 2020 22:13:36 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 05/04/20 18:45, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

<snip

> If you look at a small enough segment of any function it is approximately linear.

Only finite, continuous and differentiable functions, which are the ones where calculus works. There are others, as my first year mathematics university lecturer took care to remind us back in 1960.

There are enough such functions to make calculus extremely useful, but there are lots of other useful functions around. The Kronecker Delta comes to mind.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kronecker_delta

We got onto that when we started doing matrix manipulation (which is also a handy technique).

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Ricky C]

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 12:00:08 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 6:29:45 AM UTC+10, Ricky C wrote:
On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 3:59:45 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 9:17:54 AM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

We need good tests (infected and antibody tests). If you've had it
presumably you can go back to work.

Do we know a person who is immune can't spread the disease the same way a doorknob or table surface does?

They can, but being immune means that you immune system can recognise the virus and kill it off before it can replicate in your body.

Yes, that's the definition of "immune" and not relevant.

How does being immune from the disease make a person safe to be around? Seems rather opposite to me. If they are immune you will never know they gave it to you.

They won't give it to you, They may let somebody else's viruses give it to you, but it's pretty unlikely.

Yes, you play with words as if you are saying something worthwhile. No one cares who "owns" the viruses. If it is unlikely for an immune individual to transmit a virus to someone who is not immune, then it's no more likely for that to happen with a doorknob which you previously said could happen. There's no reason why a hand shake with someone to shook hands with an infected individual is less likely to transmit the disease than using a doorknob used by a infected individual.

Being immune isn't enough. You will need to be immune and not come in contact with not immune individuals. So we will need three classes of people, immune community, not immune-not infected community (with distancing) and the infected community.

All three classes of people would need to be isolated from one another. I can't see that working. Better to just keep the isolation as long as possible and maintain social distancing after. The fact that you are immune doesn't mean you aren't a doorknob.

Essentially now we are treating everyone as if they were infectious. Potentially the immune and infected communities could be safely merged and only the not infected put in quarantine. But that would likely mean families would need to be split up and that sounds pretty unworkable.

Am I wrong?

The immune are safe to work with the infected, and they could be useful there.

Yes, that's what I said, the immune can come into contact with the infected.. But they would need to be very, very careful not to transmit the virus themselves. The standard PPE does not provide much of a barrier over the course of a working day with many healthcare workers getting sick and even dying. Such workers can also transmit the disease even if they are immune.

--

Rick C.

-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209