OT: Scary Graph

[Paul Hovnanian P.E.]

Economists have sucessfully predicted 5 of the last three recessions.

--
Paul Hovnanian mailtoaul@Hovnanian.com
------------------------------------------------------------------
This isn't right. This isn't even wrong. -- Wolfgang Pauli

 

[Winfield Hill]

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote...

Winfield Hill wrote:
bitrex wrote...

I tried asking my bank for a loan for a million dollars ...
Sadly I still don't have a million dollars

I got my request for a million dollars, twice.
1E6 exactly. But then later I lost it, twice.

I never borrow money. The problem is, people expect
you to pay it back.

I cranked my oceanographic instrument company up to
the $2M level, and ran out of space and flexibility.
So I borrowed $1.00M, with an industrial bond, and
purchased and renovated an old mill building on the
Charles river. But running at a larger size, with
a bigger payroll, restricted my management choices,
and ultimately forced me to sell my company. That
was my first big loss, and later in an RE downturn,
sold my grand old mill building for a 2nd big loss.


--
Thanks,
- Win

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, October 17, 2019 at 6:38:04 AM UTC+11, Cursitor Doom wrote:

On Wed, 16 Oct 2019 08:10:14 -0700, jlarkin wrote:

Zero Hedge seems to be constantly promoting gold too. There must be a
reason behind that. Maybe that's their only reason for existing.

The reason is the general belief, certainly not confined simply to ZH
contributors, that the era of fiat issue money (backed by nothing but
public faith since 1971) is coming to an end and that although we know
with 100% certainty this *will* happen, we don't know exactly *when*.
Holding physical gold and silver (preferably in coin form) is the
ultimate protection against a sudden and unexpected currency collapse
wherever you may be in the world.

You can't eat gold or silver, so this isn't quite as wise as Cursitor Doom thinks.

Conservatives think that what worked for their parents will work for them, which does make gold and silver attractive to them.

If paper currency suddenly becomes worthless, you will be able to buy
NOTHING with it and society will have no choice but to return to either
barter or else coinage with intrinsic worth based on the scarcity of the
metal it's made from.
So the message is, "get stackin'."

Barter isn't going to support the kind of high tech agriculture that keeps most of us fed, so the immediate consequence of a loss of faith in paper currency - or the electronic medium of exchange which has largely replaced it (not that Cursitor Doom seems to have noticed) - would be a population crash.

The - much smaller - surviving population will probably have more immediate problems that stacking bars of gold and silver.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, October 17, 2019 at 7:11:27 AM UTC+11, k...@notreal.com wrote:

On Wed, 16 Oct 2019 18:19:19 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 16/10/19 16:10, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 16 Oct 2019 08:21:28 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 16/10/19 01:47, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 16 Oct 2019 00:25:59 -0000 (UTC), Cursitor Doom
curd@notformail.com> wrote:


Looks like we're overdue for the next recession...

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmCDE9.jpg?itok=ihNx15rZ

... despite what CNBC may say.

We're due for one eventually, but Zero Hedge extrapolates the 3rd
derivative of anything they can find.

Fun to read, but hysterical.

That's how they key the money coming in.
Much, but not all of the UK press is like
that too.

It is easy to make predictions that:
- we are doomed
- we are shortly going to be in nirvana
and if you do it frequently enough over a long enough
period you will /eventually/ be correct.

The Internet has created 10x as many "news" sources as before, and
they need content to sell ads, so they make it up. Nobody can afford
literate reporters and researchers any more.

Since nobody has to pay for news any more, they don't pay.
Hence there isn't much scope to pay for decent reporters
and editors.

People never paid for news (with the possible exception of some small
circulation newsletters). Subscription fees didn't even cover the
circulation costs for major newspapers.

Advertising did. Most of that advertising money now seems to be going to google and facebook, who don't seem to want to pay reporters and editors - though the business of suppressing fake news may force them to do so.

<snipped Tom Gardner's sensible observations which didn't seem to interest krw>

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, October 17, 2019 at 6:32:07 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:

On Wed, 16 Oct 2019 18:19:19 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 16/10/19 16:10, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 16 Oct 2019 08:21:28 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 16/10/19 01:47, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 16 Oct 2019 00:25:59 -0000 (UTC), Cursitor Doom
curd@notformail.com> wrote:


Looks like we're overdue for the next recession...

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmCDE9.jpg?itok=ihNx15rZ

... despite what CNBC may say.

We're due for one eventually, but Zero Hedge extrapolates the 3rd
derivative of anything they can find.

Fun to read, but hysterical.

That's how they key the money coming in.
Much, but not all of the UK press is like
that too.

It is easy to make predictions that:
- we are doomed
- we are shortly going to be in nirvana
and if you do it frequently enough over a long enough
period you will /eventually/ be correct.

The Internet has created 10x as many "news" sources as before, and
they need content to sell ads, so they make it up. Nobody can afford
literate reporters and researchers any more.

Since nobody has to pay for news any more, they don't pay.
Hence there isn't much scope to pay for decent reporters
and editors.

Mind you, that never inhibited much of the UK paper press.
The Daily Wail and Daily Sexpresses were and are prime examples
of that.

Murdoch's Sun and News of the World etc were never
more than comics bought very cheaply by the masses so they
could have their daily tits with their cups of tea.


Tribalization among their audience encourages inflammatory shrieking
and insults and profanity. Sad.

More than sad; dangerous.

The basic problem is that humans are not evolutionarily equipped to
handle bandwidth and choice.

That's why we had to invent critical thinking and the scientific method. It seems that this wasn't taught at Tulane.

Cable TV gave us a hundred channels of
crud. The Internet gives us a million channels of crud.

Sturgeons Law is that 90% of everything is crud

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon%27s_law

It predates cable TV and the internet.

People want amusement, entertainment, gossip, and conflict, and they
want it now.

But they should learn how to distinguish that from reliable factual information.

John Larkin gets his opinions on anthropogenic global warming from denialist web sites, so he clearly lacks that particular skill.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 17/10/19 04:21, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Thursday, October 17, 2019 at 6:38:04 AM UTC+11, Cursitor Doom wrote:
On Wed, 16 Oct 2019 08:10:14 -0700, jlarkin wrote:

Zero Hedge seems to be constantly promoting gold too. There must be a
reason behind that. Maybe that's their only reason for existing.

The reason is the general belief, certainly not confined simply to ZH
contributors, that the era of fiat issue money (backed by nothing but
public faith since 1971) is coming to an end and that although we know
with 100% certainty this *will* happen, we don't know exactly *when*.
Holding physical gold and silver (preferably in coin form) is the
ultimate protection against a sudden and unexpected currency collapse
wherever you may be in the world.

You can't eat gold or silver, so this isn't quite as wise as Cursitor Doom thinks.

Conservatives think that what worked for their parents will work for them, which does make gold and silver attractive to them.

If paper currency suddenly becomes worthless, you will be able to buy
NOTHING with it and society will have no choice but to return to either
barter or else coinage with intrinsic worth based on the scarcity of the
metal it's made from.
So the message is, "get stackin'."

Barter isn't going to support the kind of high tech agriculture that keeps most of us fed, so the immediate consequence of a loss of faith in paper currency - or the electronic medium of exchange which has largely replaced it (not that Cursitor Doom seems to have noticed) - would be a population crash.

The - much smaller - surviving population will probably have more immediate problems that stacking bars of gold and silver.

Gold and silver will still have a use since they are dense
and can be used to transport "options/choices/influences"
from here to there.

Quite what the exchange rate will be is open to question.
Maybe it will be a Golgafrincham leaf/peanut ratio.

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 17/10/19 04:21, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Thursday, October 17, 2019 at 6:32:07 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:
Cable TV gave us a hundred channels of
crud. The Internet gives us a million channels of crud.

Sturgeons Law is that 90% of everything is crud

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon%27s_law

It predates cable TV and the internet.

Just so, but I'm never sure when to stop recursive application
of that "law".

People want amusement, entertainment, gossip, and conflict, and they
want it now.

But they should learn how to distinguish that from reliable factual information.

Ideally yes, but it ain't gonna happen.

A consequence is that sometimes turkeys do vote for Christmas.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, October 17, 2019 at 5:34:53 PM UTC+11, Tom Gardner wrote:

On 17/10/19 04:21, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, October 17, 2019 at 6:32:07 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:
Cable TV gave us a hundred channels of
crud. The Internet gives us a million channels of crud.

Sturgeons Law is that 90% of everything is crud

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon%27s_law

It predates cable TV and the internet.

Just so, but I'm never sure when to stop recursive application
of that "law".

There would be a 90% chance that it is crud, if it hadn't been tested and confirmed so frequently.

People want amusement, entertainment, gossip, and conflict, and they
want it now.

But they should learn how to distinguish that from reliable factual information.

Ideally yes, but it ain't gonna happen.

Actually it does happen a lot. Lincoln's "you can't fool all the people all the time" does capture this.

> A consequence is that sometimes turkeys do vote for Christmas.

Not all of them. John Larkin does seem to be one of the turkeys.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Thu, 17 Oct 2019 07:34:47 +0100, Tom Gardner
<spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 17/10/19 04:21, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, October 17, 2019 at 6:32:07 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:
Cable TV gave us a hundred channels of
crud. The Internet gives us a million channels of crud.

Sturgeons Law is that 90% of everything is crud

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon%27s_law

It predates cable TV and the internet.

Just so, but I'm never sure when to stop recursive application
of that "law".


People want amusement, entertainment, gossip, and conflict, and they
want it now.

But they should learn how to distinguish that from reliable factual information.

Ideally yes, but it ain't gonna happen.

A consequence is that sometimes turkeys do vote for Christmas.

One theme of modern life is that technology is increasingly good at
hyper-exploiting and profiting from basic human appetites. Video
games, cigarettes, fentanyl, artificially flavored sweetened sodas,
violent movies, texting, fast cars, porn, and politics are destructive
examples.

I have no objection to a good donut or ski lift now and then.




--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

lunatic fringe electronics

 

[amdx]

On 10/15/2019 7:47 PM, John Larkin wrote:

On Wed, 16 Oct 2019 00:25:59 -0000 (UTC), Cursitor Doom
curd@notformail.com> wrote:


Looks like we're overdue for the next recession...

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmCDE9.jpg?itok=ihNx15rZ

... despite what CNBC may say.

We're due for one eventually, but Zero Hedge extrapolates the 3rd
derivative of anything they can find.

Fun to read, but hysterical.

I expect that the big losers - Tesla, Uber, Lyft, WeWork, all those
money burners - will hit the wall one of these years not too far away.

I read a lot of the Financial Independent Retire Early (FIRE) forums.
Most of the people are saving large percentages of their income.
The younger people are all hoping for an economic downturn and stock
market drop, so they can invest more money at a lower price. And the
older retired people are, of course, NOT hoping for that.

Mikek

 

[Martin Brown]

On 17/10/2019 16:51, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Thu, 17 Oct 2019 10:38:55 -0500, amdx <nojunk@knology.net> wrote:

On 10/15/2019 7:47 PM, John Larkin wrote:

I expect that the big losers - Tesla, Uber, Lyft, WeWork, all those
money burners - will hit the wall one of these years not too far away.

Wework looks to me like it has already hit the wall. YMMV

I read a lot of the Financial Independent Retire Early (FIRE) forums.
Most of the people are saving large percentages of their income.
The younger people are all hoping for an economic downturn and stock
market drop, so they can invest more money at a lower price. And the
older retired people are, of course, NOT hoping for that.

Mikek

There must be a lot of inflation coming up. Government debt is
unsupportable and increasing. Pension and bond liabilities too.

It is kind of odd really with interest rates so low that zombie
companies can survive although equally some good companies with really
bad overpaid management that took on insane debt to exploit the low
interest rates can go to the wall despite some parts being profitable.

Recent example in the UK was the travel firm Thomas Cook.

Only artificially zero interest rates allow government to keep
borrowing. Zero interest rates make savings a loser, and drive money
into stocks. The result will be theft of everyone's assets... savings
stolen by inflation, stocks by crashes.

Some things have real intrinsic value irrespective of market conditions
like food and shelter. Other things like art works and company shares
are only worth what the next sucker will pay for them.

I'm convinced that macroeconomics is dangerous nonsense. Fatheads
enjoy turning powerful knobs that they don't understand.

The economic models are surprisingly sophisticated and non-linear but
fail to model things like old school tie connections that allow hedge
funds to obtain price sensitive information before anyone else does.

Problem is that they haven't been able to model the herd instinct that
results in people getting carried away in auctions and boom bust cycles.
Those have been going on since before economics was a formal discipline.
Mississippi paper, South Sea bubble, Tulip Mania - take your pick.

Researching the UK railways shows the Bank of England writing stern
letters to other banks in much the same tone as after the 2008 crash.

It isn't the economists fault that some people are pretty dumb. I met
the guy who nearly bankrupt the UK mobile phone operators by his
incredibly clever design of the 3G frequency auction. As a demo he
managed to get testosterone fuelled "traders" to bid for a ÂŁ1 coin. I
dropped out at 99p - the winning bid was ÂŁ3! So much for rational
decisions. These were people who buy and sell shares for a living too ;-)

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

On Thu, 17 Oct 2019 10:38:55 -0500, amdx <nojunk@knology.net> wrote:

On 10/15/2019 7:47 PM, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 16 Oct 2019 00:25:59 -0000 (UTC), Cursitor Doom
curd@notformail.com> wrote:


Looks like we're overdue for the next recession...

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmCDE9.jpg?itok=ihNx15rZ

... despite what CNBC may say.

We're due for one eventually, but Zero Hedge extrapolates the 3rd
derivative of anything they can find.

Fun to read, but hysterical.

I expect that the big losers - Tesla, Uber, Lyft, WeWork, all those
money burners - will hit the wall one of these years not too far away.


I read a lot of the Financial Independent Retire Early (FIRE) forums.
Most of the people are saving large percentages of their income.
The younger people are all hoping for an economic downturn and stock
market drop, so they can invest more money at a lower price. And the
older retired people are, of course, NOT hoping for that.

Mikek

There must be a lot of inflation coming up. Government debt is
unsupportable and increasing. Pension and bond liabilities too.

Only artificially zero interest rates allow government to keep
borrowing. Zero interest rates make savings a loser, and drive money
into stocks. The result will be theft of everyone's assets... savings
stolen by inflation, stocks by crashes.

I'm convinced that macroeconomics is dangerous nonsense. Fatheads
enjoy turning powerful knobs that they don't understand.




--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

lunatic fringe electronics

 

[John Larkin]

On Thu, 17 Oct 2019 17:34:00 +0100, Martin Brown
<'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 17/10/2019 16:51, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 17 Oct 2019 10:38:55 -0500, amdx <nojunk@knology.net> wrote:

On 10/15/2019 7:47 PM, John Larkin wrote:

I expect that the big losers - Tesla, Uber, Lyft, WeWork, all those
money burners - will hit the wall one of these years not too far away.


Wework looks to me like it has already hit the wall. YMMV

WeWork could be a positive-feedback factor on a business real estate
crash. Too much class-A office space, not enough geeks.

I read a lot of the Financial Independent Retire Early (FIRE) forums.
Most of the people are saving large percentages of their income.
The younger people are all hoping for an economic downturn and stock
market drop, so they can invest more money at a lower price. And the
older retired people are, of course, NOT hoping for that.

Mikek

There must be a lot of inflation coming up. Government debt is
unsupportable and increasing. Pension and bond liabilities too.

It is kind of odd really with interest rates so low that zombie
companies can survive although equally some good companies with really
bad overpaid management that took on insane debt to exploit the low
interest rates can go to the wall despite some parts being profitable.

Recent example in the UK was the travel firm Thomas Cook.

Only artificially zero interest rates allow government to keep
borrowing. Zero interest rates make savings a loser, and drive money
into stocks. The result will be theft of everyone's assets... savings
stolen by inflation, stocks by crashes.

Some things have real intrinsic value irrespective of market conditions
like food and shelter. Other things like art works and company shares
are only worth what the next sucker will pay for them.

Real estate in non-overbuilt areas is probably a good investment, if
not loaded down by debt.

I'm convinced that macroeconomics is dangerous nonsense. Fatheads
enjoy turning powerful knobs that they don't understand.

The economic models are surprisingly sophisticated and non-linear but
fail to model things like old school tie connections that allow hedge
funds to obtain price sensitive information before anyone else does.

Sophisticated doesn't mean real. Economics is a "consensus science",
experts reinforcing the opinions of other experts.

Problem is that they haven't been able to model the herd instinct that
results in people getting carried away in auctions and boom bust cycles.
Those have been going on since before economics was a formal discipline.
Mississippi paper, South Sea bubble, Tulip Mania - take your pick.

Absolutely. Fear and greed don't model well.

Researching the UK railways shows the Bank of England writing stern
letters to other banks in much the same tone as after the 2008 crash.

It isn't the economists fault that some people are pretty dumb. I met
the guy who nearly bankrupt the UK mobile phone operators by his
incredibly clever design of the 3G frequency auction. As a demo he
managed to get testosterone fuelled "traders" to bid for a Ł1 coin. I
dropped out at 99p - the winning bid was Ł3! So much for rational
decisions. These were people who buy and sell shares for a living too ;-)

Government policy should be to dampen unstable feedbacks. It's usually
the opposite. Or the wrong timing, which is the same thing.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

[Cursitor Doom]

On Thu, 17 Oct 2019 10:38:55 -0500, amdx wrote:

The younger people are all hoping for an economic downturn and stock
market drop, so they can invest more money at a lower price,

Do younger people have such surpluses to invest these days? I assume
you're talking about the ones who don't still live with their parents as
they don't earn enough to go it alone.

> older retired people are, of course, NOT hoping for that.

Depends what their funds are invested in. Certainly if they're invested
in anything stock-linked, but there are many more who have their money
in, for the sake of safety, investment grade bonds. This is the rentier
class so hated by the Slomans of this world and they've seen their
incomes, which come from the interest on those bonds, virtually wiped out
over the last 12 years. In fact we're increasingly entering into the
uncharted territory of *negative* rates now, owing to concerns of a
global downturn.
Strange times indeed. The next war to fight and no ammo left to fight it
with. Nothing to do but print more money.



--
This message may be freely reproduced without limit or charge only via
the Usenet protocol. Reproduction in whole or part through other
protocols, whether for profit or not, is conditional upon a charge of
GBP10.00 per reproduction. Publication in this manner via non-Usenet
protocols constitutes acceptance of this condition.

 

[Martin Brown]

On 17/10/2019 18:17, John Larkin wrote:

On Thu, 17 Oct 2019 17:34:00 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 17/10/2019 16:51, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Only artificially zero interest rates allow government to keep
borrowing. Zero interest rates make savings a loser, and drive money
into stocks. The result will be theft of everyone's assets... savings
stolen by inflation, stocks by crashes.

Some things have real intrinsic value irrespective of market conditions
like food and shelter. Other things like art works and company shares
are only worth what the next sucker will pay for them.

Real estate in non-overbuilt areas is probably a good investment, if
not loaded down by debt.

+1

In the UK real estate goes up almost without limit though a crash is
near certain at some point. Buying a home is now out of reach of almost
everyone on an average salary these days. Generation rent...

I'm convinced that macroeconomics is dangerous nonsense. Fatheads
enjoy turning powerful knobs that they don't understand.

The economic models are surprisingly sophisticated and non-linear but
fail to model things like old school tie connections that allow hedge
funds to obtain price sensitive information before anyone else does.

Sophisticated doesn't mean real. Economics is a "consensus science",
experts reinforcing the opinions of other experts.

Some parts of it are more justified than others. I had a chance to play
with the UK economic model in the early noughties. Main problems I can
see is that the economic input data is never trustworthy. You can have
companies reporting audited accounts which are works of fiction.

Problem is that they haven't been able to model the herd instinct that
results in people getting carried away in auctions and boom bust cycles.
Those have been going on since before economics was a formal discipline.
Mississippi paper, South Sea bubble, Tulip Mania - take your pick.

Absolutely. Fear and greed don't model well.

They are getting better at it. I have a respect for macro economics even
if I think like you do that most economists are charlatans. It isn't
called the dismal science for nothing.

Researching the UK railways shows the Bank of England writing stern
letters to other banks in much the same tone as after the 2008 crash.

It isn't the economists fault that some people are pretty dumb. I met
the guy who nearly bankrupt the UK mobile phone operators by his
incredibly clever design of the 3G frequency auction. As a demo he
managed to get testosterone fuelled "traders" to bid for a ÂŁ1 coin. I
dropped out at 99p - the winning bid was ÂŁ3! So much for rational
decisions. These were people who buy and sell shares for a living too ;-)

Government policy should be to dampen unstable feedbacks. It's usually
the opposite. Or the wrong timing, which is the same thing.

It is hard to do that when your reliable information is typically six
months behind real time and even then subject to radical revision when
some new accounting black hole opens up in audited accounts. Auditors,
management consultants and creative accounting have a lot to answer for.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[Robert Baer]

bitrex wrote:

On 10/16/19 12:08 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 15 Oct 2019 21:31:15 -0400, bitrex <user@example.net> wrote:

On 10/15/19 8:47 PM, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 16 Oct 2019 00:25:59 -0000 (UTC), Cursitor Doom
curd@notformail.com> wrote:


Looks like we're overdue for the next recession...

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmCDE9.jpg?itok=ihNx15rZ


... despite what CNBC may say.

We're due for one eventually, but Zero Hedge extrapolates the 3rd
derivative of anything they can find.

Fun to read, but hysterical.

I expect that the big losers - Tesla, Uber, Lyft, WeWork, all those
money burners - will hit the wall one of these years not too far away.


At least in my area Uber and Lyft are proof positive that random people
using their own vehicles are, on average, better taxi drivers than the
taxi drivers employed at above-board cab companies

And they keep their cars cleaner too. But no company can keep losing 5
billion dollars a quarter forever.



I tried asking my bank for a loan for a million dollars and then
patiently  explained that we live in a "post-debt" society when they
balked at my offer of 72 cents, an discarded pine-tree car air freshener
and my lucky rabbit's foot as collateral.

Sadly I still don't have a million dollars

I could send you a genuine million dollar bill, but why be a piker,
when one hundred trillion dollar bill will do?
I joke not.
Your address and i will randumbly pick a bill out of the (small) pile
for you.

 

[John Larkin]

On Thu, 17 Oct 2019 18:51:49 +0100, Martin Brown
<'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 17/10/2019 18:17, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 17 Oct 2019 17:34:00 +0100, Martin Brown
'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

On 17/10/2019 16:51, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Only artificially zero interest rates allow government to keep
borrowing. Zero interest rates make savings a loser, and drive money
into stocks. The result will be theft of everyone's assets... savings
stolen by inflation, stocks by crashes.

Some things have real intrinsic value irrespective of market conditions
like food and shelter. Other things like art works and company shares
are only worth what the next sucker will pay for them.

Real estate in non-overbuilt areas is probably a good investment, if
not loaded down by debt.

+1

In the UK real estate goes up almost without limit though a crash is
near certain at some point. Buying a home is now out of reach of almost
everyone on an average salary these days. Generation rent...

I'm convinced that macroeconomics is dangerous nonsense. Fatheads
enjoy turning powerful knobs that they don't understand.

The economic models are surprisingly sophisticated and non-linear but
fail to model things like old school tie connections that allow hedge
funds to obtain price sensitive information before anyone else does.

Sophisticated doesn't mean real. Economics is a "consensus science",
experts reinforcing the opinions of other experts.

Some parts of it are more justified than others. I had a chance to play
with the UK economic model in the early noughties. Main problems I can
see is that the economic input data is never trustworthy. You can have
companies reporting audited accounts which are works of fiction.

Problem is that they haven't been able to model the herd instinct that
results in people getting carried away in auctions and boom bust cycles.
Those have been going on since before economics was a formal discipline.
Mississippi paper, South Sea bubble, Tulip Mania - take your pick.

Absolutely. Fear and greed don't model well.

They are getting better at it. I have a respect for macro economics even
if I think like you do that most economists are charlatans. It isn't
called the dismal science for nothing.

Researching the UK railways shows the Bank of England writing stern
letters to other banks in much the same tone as after the 2008 crash.

It isn't the economists fault that some people are pretty dumb. I met
the guy who nearly bankrupt the UK mobile phone operators by his
incredibly clever design of the 3G frequency auction. As a demo he
managed to get testosterone fuelled "traders" to bid for a Ł1 coin. I
dropped out at 99p - the winning bid was Ł3! So much for rational
decisions. These were people who buy and sell shares for a living too ;-)

Government policy should be to dampen unstable feedbacks. It's usually
the opposite. Or the wrong timing, which is the same thing.

It is hard to do that when your reliable information is typically six
months behind real time and even then subject to radical revision when
some new accounting black hole opens up in audited accounts. Auditors,
management consultants and creative accounting have a lot to answer for.

That's the problem with trying to damp the system in real time. It's
easy to make things worse. And macroeconomists live to meddle.

Some steady, long-term policies would help. Tax short-term gains more
than long-term. Tax transactions, less tax on long-term gains. Make
the banks be banks again. Encourage genuine productive enterprises,
ideally by leaving them alone more.

STOP playing stupid anti-market-force games like QE.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

[amdx]

On 10/17/2019 12:06 PM, Cursitor Doom wrote:

On Thu, 17 Oct 2019 10:38:55 -0500, amdx wrote:

The younger people are all hoping for an economic downturn and stock
market drop, so they can invest more money at a lower price,

Do younger people have such surpluses to invest these days? I assume
you're talking about the ones who don't still live with their parents as
they don't earn enough to go it alone.

Just the younger people groups I monitor!

As I mentioned these are people that believe if they live well below
their income and invest their savings, they can build a nest egg that
they can live off of for the rest of there lives, and never have to work
for money again.
A few have found they want to continue working, but the fact they don't
need the job, makes life so much nicer. Others have what they call FU
money and it gives them so much maneuver room in the place of
employment. Some great stories about that.

older retired people are, of course, NOT hoping for that.

Depends what their funds are invested in. Certainly if they're invested
in anything stock-linked, but there are many more who have their money
in, for the sake of safety, investment grade bonds. This is the rentier
class so hated by the Slomans of this world and they've seen their
incomes, which come from the interest on those bonds, virtually wiped out
over the last 12 years. In fact we're increasingly entering into the
uncharted territory of *negative* rates now, owing to concerns of a
global downturn.
Strange times indeed. The next war to fight and no ammo left to fight it
with. Nothing to do but print more money.

Once we acquired a good networth I haven't had what I think is a good
entry point to get into bonds. I'm some what afraid of them now. I have
less than 3% in a bond fund. I still want growth not a hedge on
inflation and that's all bonds do a the rates paid now. You can get some
REITs stocks or preferreds stocks paying a dividend of 7% to 12%, but
buy beware.
Mikek

 

[Cursitor Doom]

On Thu, 17 Oct 2019 12:22:49 -0800, Robert Baer wrote:

I could send you a genuine million dollar bill, but why be a piker,
when one hundred trillion dollar bill will do?
I joke not.
Your address and i will randumbly pick a bill out of the (small) pile
for you.

You are Montgomery C. Burns and ICTTD.




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[Tom Gardner]

On 17/10/19 20:10, John Larkin wrote:
> STOP playing stupid anti-market-force games like QE.

Short-term, limited QE could be useful.

Long-term it looks like an attempt to delay the inevitable,
by transferring money from the poor/middle classes to the
rich, and by transferring the problems onto our children.