OT: Open for Business Until Everyone is Sick

Piotr Wyderski <peter.pan@neverland.mil> wrote in
news:r8hook$1lcs$1@gioia.aioe.org:

John Larkin wrote:

Exactly. The more we lock down, the more our population is
fertile for reinfection.

Bullshit, you fucking total retard!

The longer we stay apart the longer the labs have to get an
antibody direct attack shot and a vaccine shot.

Even with a 100' wall around the US, and
airports shut down forever, there will be reservoirs of virus
here for years, passed around silently.

Goddamn you fucking TrumpTards are fucking stupid!

It's not practical to test the entire US population every week
and stomp out new seeds.

It shocks me that this kind of stuff needs to be explained on an
engineering newsgroup.

Your Dunning-Kruger effect is glaringly obvious. Nice try though,
putz.

Best regards, Piotr

You have NO regards for anyone, you lying putz!

More bullshit... in an engineering group. "This kind of stuff"
(you) needs to be flushed.

 

[Jasen Betts]

On 2020-05-01, John Larkin <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:

Efficiency benefit from dense populations is on the side of the microbe.

Yes. The R factor is a radical function of population density.

No, it's a radical function population mobility multiplied by density


--
Jasen.

 

[Ricky C]

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 2:11:38 PM UTC-4, Piotr Wyderski wrote:

John Larkin wrote:

Exactly. The more we lock down, the more our population is fertile for
reinfection. Even with a 100' wall around the US, and airports shut
down forever, there will be reservoirs of virus here for years, passed
around silently.

It's not practical to test the entire US population every week and
stomp out new seeds.

It shocks me that this kind of stuff needs to be explained on an
engineering newsgroup.

It is sad that people believe such obvious misinformation in an engineering newsgroup.

If the virus is passed around "silently" we don't care do we? Contact tracing and quarantine of anyone exposed is practical and required once the numbers drop. But the same sort of thinking that got Trump elected means once people feel better they stop taking their antibiotics even though they aren't cured.

--

Rick C.

+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Ricky C]

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 2:44:11 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 4:55:19 AM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
I just read that yet another port processing plant has closed because 40%, 900 workers tested positive for this disease. The plant closures are adding up and meat is going to be in short supply soon. So it seems we are damned if we do, damned if we don't.

A farmer friend (Bruce) is slaughtering another cow.
I'd buy more meat if I had any more room in my
freezer. We had Bruce T-bones the other night.
Umm.

Some people think you are going to need guns to protect that freezer. If I were in your shoes I'd have a backup generator.

BTW, why is he slaughtering cows? We are pretty sure they aren't responsible for the virus.

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[whit3rd]

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 10:47:06 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

On Fri, 1 May 2020 19:05:39 +0200, Piotr Wyderski
peter.pan@neverland.mil> wrote:

... The US alone have 1.1e6 confirmed cases today, probably
3x that number not diagnosed. This already is on the order of 1% of your
population and still growing. Sorry.

30% antibody positive in some places.

Not according to published error estimates. You have to ignore reality
to quote a number without giving its error bars. Some of the quoted
results are only good for upper limit determinations, allow zero antibody
positive as possible.

 

[Ricky C]

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 1:05:45 PM UTC-4, Piotr Wyderski wrote:

Ricky C wrote:

I guess I'm asking why? Obviously isolation should do the job. We don't even need to get the R0 number down to zero. We just have to get it enough below 1.0 that the new infections drops more rapidly than it's doing now.

Then the very same isolation should eradicate common cold or flu as
well, which didn't happen. We still don't know what the other reservoirs
of the virus might be. Are you going to kill all the bats on the planet,
for example?

Wow! So much wrong there. We don't isolate for colds or the flu until someone is sick and often not even then. We isolate when we are too sick to do our jobs or just too sick to leave the house. Otherwise we happily spread the viruses all over. The R0 of this disease is MUCH higher than the typical flu.

As to dealing with reservoirs, we only need to deal with real exigencies, not imagined. If someone gets the bubonic plague we deal with it by routine medical tracing. We can do the same with this disease once it is brought under control.

And this is not limited only to animals. There are countries which
cannot afford the level of healthcare we have, even remotely. Some day a
plane from one of them might land and then everything will start all
over again. In order to win we must try to fix the problem globally,
which is not happening nowadays. Every single country pursues its own
unique attempts,
sometimes they are even stealing the PPE belonging to their neighbours
to supplement their own stock.

Yes, keeping the interjected infections low by careful screening and quarantine of international travelers and contact tracing. In other words, we can't just pay lip service to the idea of preventing a reinfection like we did the first time.

The lock down in China worked a charm.

Provided that the Chinese reports are, errr..., not using creatively the
concept of truth...

They have removed the lock down and reduced their travel restrictions, hard to lie about that. There are other countries that are doing well keeping a lid on this disease. Do you believe they are all lying?

There's no reason why we can't make these things work here in the US and throughout Europe.

In Poland we have been locked down since March 10, with the police
helicopters constantly monitoring major cities for illegal gatherings
and so what? 228 new cases only today and it is still early evening.
On May 6 the schools are supposed to restart their activities; large
shopping centers on May 4. We have been in isolation for almost two
months and the disease is quickly spreading. Three weeks you say?

So what are you doing wrong? How is the disease being spread? Do you no longer believe in science?

Now the EU is mostly switching to the Swedish model: let regular people
live their lives and isolate the most vulnerable ones.

My understanding is that's not working out so well for Sweden. Their new infection and death rates have leveled off, but that's all. Like in the US they are not going down. So what's so great about that?

Not me. I can wait it out.

No, you can't, I'm afraid. The virus as we know it or its mutations are
here to stay.

You are mistaken that I will need to wait it out forever. They will have a vaccine at some point. We will see how long that takes and if the virus mutates enough to require a new vaccine.

Then there are also treatments and... herd immunity. Once it has infected enough people that the R0 drops below 1.0, it will die off from not being transmitted effectively.

Forever or for at least a very long time. The second
strike is expected to hit us this autumn.

Some of us will develop immunity one way or another, some else will
perish.

Immunity is not a given, which you would know if you were paying attention. If enough get infected on the first go around and the immunity lasts long enough, the second wave may not occur. So it's good for me if you get infected.

We are way past the point of no return, so catching it is just a
matter of time. The US alone have 1.1e6 confirmed cases today, probably
3x that number not diagnosed. This already is on the order of 1% of your
population and still growing. Sorry.

Your facts may be right, your conclusions are suspect. The growth rate is now linear rather than exponential. Instead of doubling every period, it now adds so many infected every period. A very different situation which gives us time to deal with it. If however, we do what you suggest the numbers will take off. Same in Poland. Actually, your numbers seem pretty low. It's just that you aren't doing as much as needed to get R0 significantly below 1.0. So shit or get off the pot. Get your R0 down, or open things up and let it rip. Either one is good for me. Keeping the infection going is like maintaining a sour dough starter, but not so tasty.

--

Rick C.

-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[John Larkin]

On Fri, 1 May 2020 21:54:46 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
<jasen@xnet.co.nz> wrote:

On 2020-05-01, John Larkin <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:


Efficiency benefit from dense populations is on the side of the microbe.

Yes. The R factor is a radical function of population density.

No, it's a radical function population mobility multiplied by density

The worst part of this pandemic may be the shear tedium.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

[John Larkin]

On Fri, 1 May 2020 15:11:46 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
wrote:

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 10:47:06 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
On Fri, 1 May 2020 19:05:39 +0200, Piotr Wyderski
peter.pan@neverland.mil> wrote:

... The US alone have 1.1e6 confirmed cases today, probably
3x that number not diagnosed. This already is on the order of 1% of your
population and still growing. Sorry.

30% antibody positive in some places.

Not according to published error estimates. You have to ignore reality
to quote a number without giving its error bars.

Oh, all right.


================================

-------------------


\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\


Satisfied?


--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

[Ricky C]

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 4:32:13 PM UTC-4, Michael Terrell wrote:

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 4:55:19 AM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
I just read that yet another port processing plant has closed because 40%, 900 workers tested positive for this disease. The plant closures are adding up and meat is going to be in short supply soon. So it seems we are damned if we do, damned if we don't.

So ignoring the virus to the extent that we don't force people into contact that will spread the virus like wildfire will still result in many businesses closing because the people working there will get sick. Trying to shut down and not spread the virus isn't working, which we have to assume is because people aren't following the orders.

The only countries that have beaten this virus took significant measures to test and isolate everyone who potentially was exposed and/or isolated everyone with stay at home orders. So why can't the US and the UK and other countries do the same thing?

What is wrong with this country that a simple virus defeats us?


- Tesla:

https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/05/01/elon-musks-law-and-order-violations-continue-915759

Interesting that you point to Musk rather than blind stupidity.

https://cutt.ly/stop-the-insanity

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[whit3rd]

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 3:30:27 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

On Fri, 1 May 2020 15:11:46 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 10:47:06 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

30% antibody positive in some places.

Not according to published error estimates. You have to ignore reality
to quote a number without giving its error bars.

Without knowing what "some places" means, I'll suggest that's misinformation.

Lookie here for a little reality:
<https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/experts-demolish-studies-suggesting-covid-19-is-no-worse-than-flu/>

It's important to read past the introduction here; the second page is where the
antibody-positive result has a lower bound computed; it's no less than zero, you'll be
glad to hear. To claim much more than zero, like 30%, is ... extraordinary. We await evidence.

 

Ricky C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote in
news:66ffe894-4c4e-4676-8516-eba49cd01873@googlegroups.com:

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 2:44:11 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 4:55:19 AM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
I just read that yet another port processing plant has closed
because 4
0%, 900 workers tested positive for this disease. The plant
closures are adding up and meat is going to be in short supply
soon. So it seems we are damned if we do, damned if we don't.

A farmer friend (Bruce) is slaughtering another cow.
I'd buy more meat if I had any more room in my
freezer. We had Bruce T-bones the other night.
Umm.

Some people think you are going to need guns to protect that
freezer. If I were in your shoes I'd have a backup generator.

BTW, why is he slaughtering cows? We are pretty sure they aren't
responsible for the virus.

Do the math. Closing meat processing facilities.

You raise cattle but nobody wants them and there are no steaks left
down at the market. What do you do.

Slice one (or three) of those fuckers up yourself.

Easy Peasy.

 

[Ricky C]

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 9:05:45 PM UTC-4, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:

Ricky C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote in
news:66ffe894-4c4e-4676-8516-eba49cd01873@googlegroups.com:

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 2:44:11 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 4:55:19 AM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
I just read that yet another port processing plant has closed
because 4
0%, 900 workers tested positive for this disease. The plant
closures are adding up and meat is going to be in short supply
soon. So it seems we are damned if we do, damned if we don't.

A farmer friend (Bruce) is slaughtering another cow.
I'd buy more meat if I had any more room in my
freezer. We had Bruce T-bones the other night.
Umm.

Some people think you are going to need guns to protect that
freezer. If I were in your shoes I'd have a backup generator.

BTW, why is he slaughtering cows? We are pretty sure they aren't
responsible for the virus.


Do the math. Closing meat processing facilities.

You raise cattle but nobody wants them and there are no steaks left
down at the market. What do you do.

Slice one (or three) of those fuckers up yourself.

Easy Peasy.

I'm waiting for someone to say they can't buy beef in the stores. Meat processing plants have been closing for weeks now and I haven't seen anything remotely like a meat shortage yet. Must be a rather large pipeline. Not that I care much. lol

Isn't the fact that factories which remained open during the shut down are having to be closed due to massive infection rates what they call a clue? Isn't it obvious that every business that tries to keep employees on site during this peak infection time will just lose employees to the disease?

All because this country is too whiny and concerned about getting haircuts to actually do what it takes to fight this disease?

What a bunch of wusses! Wusses about viruses!!!

I guess this is not the same country that was bombed at Pearl Harbor and came back to win a world war or that hunted down Osama bin Laden after the 9-11 attacks. Nope, one little virus and everyone is throwing in the towel. Wusses!

--

Rick C.

--+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[mpm]

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 6:40:05 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:

> Some people think you are going to need guns to protect that freezer. If I were in your shoes I'd have a backup generator.

And what are you going to need to protect THAT?
A cannon? Howitzer?

If the power goes out, the freezer will only last so long anyway.
People need to get their priorities straight.

Generator, Fuel, Steaks, Freezer and then the guns.

No wait:
Toilet Paper, Generator, Fuel.....

 

[mpm]

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 9:23:16 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:

> I guess this is not the same country that was bombed at Pearl Harbor and came back to win a world war or that hunted down Osama bin Laden...

Technically, Hawaii was only a territory at the time of the Pearl Harbor attack, but I concur with your sentiments.

What a bunch of wusses.

Here (Florida) it seems that every retailer it trying to out-do the next guy when it comes to protecting us against the Coronavirus. The other day, I saw a line outside the Walmart that was at least an hour long in order to get in the store. (They are throttling the store's occupancy -- all in the name of safety, you know.) What a bunch of BS. People are more likely to catch the coronavirus standing in that ridiculous line.

I really hope this passes soon.
I neither want nor need a "nanny state" trying to force me from catching the cold. (even though I realize of course the novel coronavirus is more serious that just an ordinary cold.., but when and where will the madness stop?)

 

John Larkin <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote in
news:2m8pafhnjcrikomrqdcagorpkp527ikicm@4ax.com:

On Fri, 1 May 2020 15:11:46 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd
whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 10:47:06 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
On Fri, 1 May 2020 19:05:39 +0200, Piotr Wyderski
peter.pan@neverland.mil> wrote:

... The US alone have 1.1e6 confirmed cases today, probably
3x that number not diagnosed. This already is on the order of
1% of your population and still growing. Sorry.

30% antibody positive in some places.

Not according to published error estimates. You have to ignore
reality to quote a number without giving its error bars.


Oh, all right.


================================

-------------------


\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\


Satisfied?

I was pretty sure that all the error bars were located in San Fran.

 

[Ricky C]

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 9:40:08 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 9:23:16 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:

I guess this is not the same country that was bombed at Pearl Harbor and came back to win a world war or that hunted down Osama bin Laden...

Technically, Hawaii was only a territory at the time of the Pearl Harbor attack, but I concur with your sentiments.

What a bunch of wusses.

Here (Florida) it seems that every retailer it trying to out-do the next guy when it comes to protecting us against the Coronavirus. The other day, I saw a line outside the Walmart that was at least an hour long in order to get in the store. (They are throttling the store's occupancy -- all in the name of safety, you know.) What a bunch of BS. People are more likely to catch the coronavirus standing in that ridiculous line.

I really hope this passes soon.
I neither want nor need a "nanny state" trying to force me from catching the cold. (even though I realize of course the novel coronavirus is more serious that just an ordinary cold.., but when and where will the madness stop?)

Wow! You really do have a hard on for Walmart, don't you? Did they not stand in line 6 feet apart? In that case getting infected depends on which way the wind is blowing.

But I think you misunderstand me unless that was intentional. I'm saying I have no respect for the complainers who can't even stay at home a few weeks to get rid of this disease, especially when they tout how patriotic they are but disrespect the honor of those who made real sacrifices for this country.

Patriotic hardly. Idiotic definitely. If you want to be patriotic you need to do whatever it takes to Make America Healthy Again.

--

Rick C.

-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Les Cargill]

John Larkin wrote:
<snip>

Exactly. The more we lock down, the more our population is fertile for
reinfection.

No, assuming the lockdown works, they're exactly as likely to be
infected once the lockdown ends. There's only exposure or not-exposure
offered by lockdown. It's just delay.

Even with a 100' wall around the US, and airports shut
down forever, there will be reservoirs of virus here for years, passed
around silently.

This is only true after some other thing happens.

<snip>

--
Les Cargill

 

On Sat, 2 May 2020 01:03:10 +0000 (UTC),
DecadentLinuxUserNumeroUno@decadence.org wrote:

John Larkin <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote in
news:2m8pafhnjcrikomrqdcagorpkp527ikicm@4ax.com:

On Fri, 1 May 2020 15:11:46 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd
whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 10:47:06 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
On Fri, 1 May 2020 19:05:39 +0200, Piotr Wyderski
peter.pan@neverland.mil> wrote:

... The US alone have 1.1e6 confirmed cases today, probably
3x that number not diagnosed. This already is on the order of
1% of your population and still growing. Sorry.

30% antibody positive in some places.

Not according to published error estimates. You have to ignore
reality to quote a number without giving its error bars.


Oh, all right.


================================

-------------------


\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\


Satisfied?



I was pretty sure that all the error bars were located in San Fran.

I met my wife in a gay bar in San Francisco.

We were having a beer recently at Wild Side West, a famous dyke dive
bar, and I stepped away to the mens' room (yes, they have one) and
while I was gone she got hit on by a guy!



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Saturday, May 2, 2020 at 2:52:58 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:

On Fri, 1 May 2020 09:11:23 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 1:55:19 AM UTC-7, Ricky C wrote:


Efficiency benefit from dense populations is on the side of the microbe.

Yes. The R factor is a radical function of population density.

In reality it is a function of how often people get together for face-to-face interactions that last longer than about 15 minutes. Parties, family get-to-gethers, demonstrations and church services are responsible for most Covid-19 infections.

All happen more often when the population density is high, and keep on happening under lock-down amongst people who don't have enough sense to understand why they shouldn't do it.

Trump supporters do seem to be particularly dense.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[whit3rd]

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 6:46:42 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Fri, 1 May 2020 17:20:03 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com
wrote:

glad to hear. To claim much more than zero, like 30%, is ... extraordinary. We await evidence.

You wouldn't believe anything I said.

Talk is cheap. What can you submit to peer review? Results without
reference to input data, and with incredible error estimates, are the only inputs
you've offered, and rejection was for cause, not just attribution.

It's not just me; folk who deal in knowledge and understanding ALL apply similar
peer review requirements.