ot China demographics...

[server]

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/11/22/china-announces-major-investment-ivf-reverse-birth-collapse/

Slightly on topic is the observation that experts are useless, or
worse than useless, in managing big, chaotic systems. They do big
things they don\'t understand, mess things up, and then over-compensate
in panic. Not good dynamics.

In other news, Biden shut down pipelines, and is now dumping oil from
the US strategic reserve, because $5 gasoline turns out to be bad
politics. Same idea, bang-bang control.



--

Father Brown\'s figure remained quite dark and still;
but in that instant he had lost his head. His head was
always most valuable when he had lost it.

 

[bitrex]

On 11/23/2021 10:05 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/11/22/china-announces-major-investment-ivf-reverse-birth-collapse/

Slightly on topic is the observation that experts are useless, or
worse than useless, in managing big, chaotic systems. They do big
things they don\'t understand, mess things up, and then over-compensate
in panic. Not good dynamics.

In other news, Biden shut down pipelines, and is now dumping oil from
the US strategic reserve, because $5 gasoline turns out to be bad
politics. Same idea, bang-bang control.

We need to elect a PID controller for president

 

[John Robertson]

On 2021/11/23 7:05 a.m., jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/11/22/china-announces-major-investment-ivf-reverse-birth-collapse/

Slightly on topic is the observation that experts are useless, or
worse than useless, in managing big, chaotic systems. They do big
things they don\'t understand, mess things up, and then over-compensate
in panic. Not good dynamics.

In other news, Biden shut down pipelines, and is now dumping oil from
the US strategic reserve, because $5 gasoline turns out to be bad
politics. Same idea, bang-bang control.

The Law of Unintended Consequences.

John

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, November 23, 2021 at 12:09:00 PM UTC-4, John Robertson wrote:

On 2021/11/23 7:05 a.m., jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/11/22/china-announces-major-investment-ivf-reverse-birth-collapse/

Slightly on topic is the observation that experts are useless, or
worse than useless, in managing big, chaotic systems. They do big
things they don\'t understand, mess things up, and then over-compensate
in panic. Not good dynamics.

In other news, Biden shut down pipelines, and is now dumping oil from
the US strategic reserve, because $5 gasoline turns out to be bad
politics. Same idea, bang-bang control.



The Law of Unintended Consequences.

Yeah, we learned a lot about that from 2016 to 2020. Wow!

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[server]

On Tue, 23 Nov 2021 11:02:54 -0500, bitrex <user@example.net> wrote:

On 11/23/2021 10:05 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/11/22/china-announces-major-investment-ivf-reverse-birth-collapse/

Slightly on topic is the observation that experts are useless, or
worse than useless, in managing big, chaotic systems. They do big
things they don\'t understand, mess things up, and then over-compensate
in panic. Not good dynamics.

In other news, Biden shut down pipelines, and is now dumping oil from
the US strategic reserve, because $5 gasoline turns out to be bad
politics. Same idea, bang-bang control.

We need to elect a PID controller for president

Certainly people who make policy decisions and \"expert\" economists and
sociologists should have some feel for control theory. They like to
slam big knobs rail-to-rail.

I wonder if China will swing from forced birth rate minimization
(which included forced abortions) to forced fertility.



--

Father Brown\'s figure remained quite dark and still;
but in that instant he had lost his head. His head was
always most valuable when he had lost it.

 

[server]

On Tue, 23 Nov 2021 08:08:49 -0800, John Robertson <spam@flippers.com>
wrote:

On 2021/11/23 7:05 a.m., jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/11/22/china-announces-major-investment-ivf-reverse-birth-collapse/

Slightly on topic is the observation that experts are useless, or
worse than useless, in managing big, chaotic systems. They do big
things they don\'t understand, mess things up, and then over-compensate
in panic. Not good dynamics.

In other news, Biden shut down pipelines, and is now dumping oil from
the US strategic reserve, because $5 gasoline turns out to be bad
politics. Same idea, bang-bang control.




The Law of Unintended Consequences.

John

Yes. Systems tend to natural equilibrium; mess with that at peril.

It\'s funny to see politicians pushing, essentially, on summing points.



--

Father Brown\'s figure remained quite dark and still;
but in that instant he had lost his head. His head was
always most valuable when he had lost it.

 

[Dean Hoffman]

On Tuesday, November 23, 2021 at 9:05:41 AM UTC-6, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/11/22/china-announces-major-investment-ivf-reverse-birth-collapse/

Slightly on topic is the observation that experts are useless, or
worse than useless, in managing big, chaotic systems. They do big
things they don\'t understand, mess things up, and then over-compensate
in panic. Not good dynamics.

In other news, Biden shut down pipelines, and is now dumping oil from
the US strategic reserve, because $5 gasoline turns out to be bad
politics. Same idea, bang-bang control.



--

Father Brown\'s figure remained quite dark and still;
but in that instant he had lost his head. His head was
always most valuable when he had lost it.

I ran across an article awhile back that said China has 30 million more men of
marriage age than women of marriage age. That leaves a lot of room for mischief.
Suppose even half those guys are battle casualties.

 

[bitrex]

On 11/23/2021 12:16 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Tue, 23 Nov 2021 11:02:54 -0500, bitrex <user@example.net> wrote:

On 11/23/2021 10:05 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/11/22/china-announces-major-investment-ivf-reverse-birth-collapse/

Slightly on topic is the observation that experts are useless, or
worse than useless, in managing big, chaotic systems. They do big
things they don\'t understand, mess things up, and then over-compensate
in panic. Not good dynamics.

In other news, Biden shut down pipelines, and is now dumping oil from
the US strategic reserve, because $5 gasoline turns out to be bad
politics. Same idea, bang-bang control.

We need to elect a PID controller for president

Certainly people who make policy decisions and \"expert\" economists and
sociologists should have some feel for control theory. They like to
slam big knobs rail-to-rail.

In this case it seems like everyone else is doing it, too. The
actuator/servo control theory-amenable model of societal state seems
like a tough row to hoe.

I know a gentleman who\'s an economist that\'s published some papers on
international trade dynamics, supply sources and sinks, etc. I admit I
don\'t really understand a word of them and they\'re very math-heavy.

But my impression is he feels like he\'s doing his job when he comes to
some novel conclusion about some small facet of international trade
that\'s in opposition to \"conventional wisdom\" and feels there\'s
sufficient math and data to \"prove\" it to some standard, not attempt to
find a solution to all economic problems.

I wonder if China will swing from forced birth rate minimization
(which included forced abortions) to forced fertility.

I don\'t know but I have heard secondhand that there are basically two
types of PRC-citizen college student in the US, the type that hears
about Tienanmen square for the first time at age 22, shrugs, and asks
directions to the nearest Starbucks, and the type that\'s scared shitless
every time they go on the Internet.

Revolution seems a long ways off.

 

[bitrex]

On 11/23/2021 12:50 PM, bitrex wrote:

On 11/23/2021 12:16 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 23 Nov 2021 11:02:54 -0500, bitrex <user@example.net> wrote:

On 11/23/2021 10:05 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/11/22/china-announces-major-investment-ivf-reverse-birth-collapse/


Slightly on topic is the observation that experts are useless, or
worse than useless, in managing big, chaotic systems. They do big
things they don\'t understand, mess things up, and then over-compensate
in panic. Not good dynamics.

In other news, Biden shut down pipelines, and is now dumping oil from
the US strategic reserve, because $5 gasoline turns out to be bad
politics. Same idea, bang-bang control.

We need to elect a PID controller for president

Certainly people who make policy decisions and \"expert\" economists and
sociologists should have some feel for control theory. They like to
slam big knobs rail-to-rail.

In this case it seems like everyone else is doing it, too. The
actuator/servo control theory-amenable model of societal state seems
like a tough row to hoe.

I know a gentleman who\'s an economist that\'s published some papers on
international trade dynamics, supply sources and sinks, etc. I admit I
don\'t really understand a word of them and they\'re very math-heavy.

But my impression is he feels like he\'s doing his job when he comes to
some novel conclusion about some small facet of international trade
that\'s in opposition to \"conventional wisdom\" and feels there\'s
sufficient math and data to \"prove\" it to some standard, not attempt to
find a solution to all economic problems.

Whether anyone who matters actually reads them is a different question.

 

[bitrex]

On 11/23/2021 12:44 PM, Dean Hoffman wrote:

On Tuesday, November 23, 2021 at 9:05:41 AM UTC-6, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/11/22/china-announces-major-investment-ivf-reverse-birth-collapse/

Slightly on topic is the observation that experts are useless, or
worse than useless, in managing big, chaotic systems. They do big
things they don\'t understand, mess things up, and then over-compensate
in panic. Not good dynamics.

In other news, Biden shut down pipelines, and is now dumping oil from
the US strategic reserve, because $5 gasoline turns out to be bad
politics. Same idea, bang-bang control.



--

Father Brown\'s figure remained quite dark and still;
but in that instant he had lost his head. His head was
always most valuable when he had lost it.

I ran across an article awhile back that said China has 30 million more men of
marriage age than women of marriage age. That leaves a lot of room for mischief.
Suppose even half those guys are battle casualties.

The US has more single women than men, but the prospects for American
men age 18 - 39 are not great, almost every major US city has
significantly more single men than women in that demographic, some by
almost two times.

It really only starts getting better for single (well, likely divorced
at least once by that point) men once they get into their 50s.

 

[Jan Panteltje]

On a sunny day (Tue, 23 Nov 2021 07:05:30 -0800) it happened
jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote in
<ba0qpgtb1va29t7k0ksl2nd3hrvmeclruo@4ax.com>:

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/11/22/china-announces-major-investment-ivf-reverse-birth-collapse/

Slightly on topic is the observation that experts are useless, or
worse than useless, in managing big, chaotic systems. They do big
things they don\'t understand, mess things up, and then over-compensate
in panic. Not good dynamics.

In other news, Biden shut down pipelines, and is now dumping oil from
the US strategic reserve, because $5 gasoline turns out to be bad
politics. Same idea, bang-bang control.

The system in China is defect by default.
Add to that an ego-tripping leader who wants himself to be seen as some God.

Personally I do believe in bottom up
China is an example of \'top down\' without the top having a clue about how it works.
Look at their housing disaster for example:
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-empty-homes-real-estate-evergrande-housing-market-problem-2021-10?international=true&r=US&IR=T

Simple Simon Says sort of thing
Now they start to attack good running money making things like internet giants:
https://apnews.com/article/technology-business-media-asia-social-media-6b7083e9bcaa5d093a10b1a40eeef89b

If you read
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/
every day Mr Xi has some message, looks more and more like Mao.
When you read some of that stuff it leaves you with the impression of insanity or imminent disaster.

There does not seem to be feedback from the people to correct the \'party line\' if needed.
If you read up on Mr Xi in wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping
he sure has strength.
But is the system he brings so strong?

And any one man band can fail spectacularly

And then there is HongKong
Taiwan

US is now sanctioning Russia\'s Northstream gas pipeline to Europe AGAIN.
That hits EVERY European.
US is bringing high end weapons to Ukraine.
Like Bil Clignon US wants war in Europe.
Being a major weapon dealer US want war everywhere,

 

[John Larkin]

On Tue, 23 Nov 2021 12:50:33 -0500, bitrex <user@example.net> wrote:

On 11/23/2021 12:16 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 23 Nov 2021 11:02:54 -0500, bitrex <user@example.net> wrote:

On 11/23/2021 10:05 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/11/22/china-announces-major-investment-ivf-reverse-birth-collapse/

Slightly on topic is the observation that experts are useless, or
worse than useless, in managing big, chaotic systems. They do big
things they don\'t understand, mess things up, and then over-compensate
in panic. Not good dynamics.

In other news, Biden shut down pipelines, and is now dumping oil from
the US strategic reserve, because $5 gasoline turns out to be bad
politics. Same idea, bang-bang control.

We need to elect a PID controller for president

Certainly people who make policy decisions and \"expert\" economists and
sociologists should have some feel for control theory. They like to
slam big knobs rail-to-rail.

In this case it seems like everyone else is doing it, too. The
actuator/servo control theory-amenable model of societal state seems
like a tough row to hoe.

I know a gentleman who\'s an economist that\'s published some papers on
international trade dynamics, supply sources and sinks, etc. I admit I
don\'t really understand a word of them and they\'re very math-heavy.

Yes. Macroeconomics is mostly theoretical math.

Someone asked \"If you\'re an economist, how come you ain\'t rich?\"

--

If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end with doubts,
but if he will be content to begin with doubts he shall end in certainties.
Francis Bacon

 

[bitrex]

On 11/23/2021 3:20 PM, John Larkin wrote:

On Tue, 23 Nov 2021 12:50:33 -0500, bitrex <user@example.net> wrote:

On 11/23/2021 12:16 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 23 Nov 2021 11:02:54 -0500, bitrex <user@example.net> wrote:

On 11/23/2021 10:05 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/11/22/china-announces-major-investment-ivf-reverse-birth-collapse/

Slightly on topic is the observation that experts are useless, or
worse than useless, in managing big, chaotic systems. They do big
things they don\'t understand, mess things up, and then over-compensate
in panic. Not good dynamics.

In other news, Biden shut down pipelines, and is now dumping oil from
the US strategic reserve, because $5 gasoline turns out to be bad
politics. Same idea, bang-bang control.

We need to elect a PID controller for president

Certainly people who make policy decisions and \"expert\" economists and
sociologists should have some feel for control theory. They like to
slam big knobs rail-to-rail.

In this case it seems like everyone else is doing it, too. The
actuator/servo control theory-amenable model of societal state seems
like a tough row to hoe.

I know a gentleman who\'s an economist that\'s published some papers on
international trade dynamics, supply sources and sinks, etc. I admit I
don\'t really understand a word of them and they\'re very math-heavy.

Yes. Macroeconomics is mostly theoretical math.

Someone asked \"If you\'re an economist, how come you ain\'t rich?\"

Yep, a macroeconomist specializing in foreign trade is definitely the
wrong person to ask like, what stocks to buy or whatever. He doesn\'t
have that much better idea than anyone else and claims that economists
tend to be more risk-averse than many investors probably should be, anyway.

 

[amdx]

On 11/23/2021 9:05 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/11/22/china-announces-major-investment-ivf-reverse-birth-collapse/

Slightly on topic is the observation that experts are useless, or
worse than useless, in managing big, chaotic systems. They do big
things they don\'t understand, mess things up, and then over-compensate
in panic. Not good dynamics.

In other news, Biden shut down pipelines, and is now dumping oil from
the US strategic reserve, because $5 gasoline turns out to be bad
politics. Same idea, bang-bang control.

I find the improper use of the STRATEGIC oil reserve (not the political
oil reserve) much more important than China\'s

lack of births.

                                     Mikek


--
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus

 

[whit3rd]

On Tuesday, November 23, 2021 at 7:05:41 AM UTC-8, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/11/22/china-announces-major-investment-ivf-reverse-birth-collapse/

Slightly on topic is the observation that experts are useless, or
worse than useless, in managing big, chaotic systems.

Useless observation. The systems that are hard to manage are
often called chaotic, and the most visible ones are big.

Famously, war is one of those systems; \'plans are useless, but planning
is indispensable\' was Eisenhower\'s take on the situation. He got that
right. Public planning, unlike military planning, gets wide discussion with
the public, so bad decisions (like prohibition of alcohol in the US)
get lots of press and that\'s political poison.

So, we should support politicians doing planning, AND shouldn\'t blame bigness, or chaos,
when our plans go awry. They will, we have to expect. And, like
with atmospheric carbon, we\'ll have to re-plan, because...

\"planning is indespensable\"

 

[John Larkin]

On Tue, 23 Nov 2021 14:23:30 -0800 (PST), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
wrote:

On Tuesday, November 23, 2021 at 7:05:41 AM UTC-8, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/11/22/china-announces-major-investment-ivf-reverse-birth-collapse/

Slightly on topic is the observation that experts are useless, or
worse than useless, in managing big, chaotic systems.

Useless observation. The systems that are hard to manage are
often called chaotic, and the most visible ones are big.

Famously, war is one of those systems; \'plans are useless, but planning
is indispensable\' was Eisenhower\'s take on the situation. He got that
right. Public planning, unlike military planning, gets wide discussion with
the public, so bad decisions (like prohibition of alcohol in the US)
get lots of press and that\'s political poison.

So, we should support politicians doing planning,

In general, no. If they are trying to control a process that they
don\'t understand - which is the usual case - they make things worse.

Besides, most politicians\' motivation isn\'t the general good, it\'s
power and money for their tribe.

--

If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end with doubts,
but if he will be content to begin with doubts he shall end in certainties.
Francis Bacon

 

[Anthony William Sloman]

On Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 4:18:25 AM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Tue, 23 Nov 2021 08:08:49 -0800, John Robertson <sp...@flippers.com
wrote:

On 2021/11/23 7:05 a.m., jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/11/22/china-announces-major-investment-ivf-reverse-birth-collapse/

Slightly on topic is the observation that experts are useless, or
worse than useless, in managing big, chaotic systems. They do big
things they don\'t understand, mess things up, and then over-compensate
in panic. Not good dynamics.

In John Larkin\'s ever-so-expert opinion.

In other news, Biden shut down pipelines, and is now dumping oil from
the US strategic reserve, because $5 gasoline turns out to be bad
politics. Same idea, bang-bang control.

Not exactly. Politicians have to get the attention of the public, and tiny incremental adjustments don\'t do that.

The Law of Unintended Consequences.

Yes. Systems tend to natural equilibrium; mess with that at peril.

Tell that to lemmings and mice. Their populations boom in good years then starve back to normal.

> It\'s funny to see politicians pushing, essentially, on summing points.

John Larkin gets amused by a lot of stuff he doesn\'t understand. He has much too high an opinion of his own expertise to realise that he ought to be puzzled, rather than supercilious.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Anthony William Sloman]

On Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 7:20:27 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:

On Tue, 23 Nov 2021 12:50:33 -0500, bitrex <us...@example.net> wrote:

On 11/23/2021 12:16 PM, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 23 Nov 2021 11:02:54 -0500, bitrex <us...@example.net> wrote:

On 11/23/2021 10:05 AM, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/11/22/china-announces-major-investment-ivf-reverse-birth-collapse/

Slightly on topic is the observation that experts are useless, or
worse than useless, in managing big, chaotic systems. They do big
things they don\'t understand, mess things up, and then over-compensate
in panic. Not good dynamics.

In other news, Biden shut down pipelines, and is now dumping oil from
the US strategic reserve, because $5 gasoline turns out to be bad
politics. Same idea, bang-bang control.

We need to elect a PID controller for president

Certainly people who make policy decisions and \"expert\" economists and
sociologists should have some feel for control theory. They like to
slam big knobs rail-to-rail.

In this case it seems like everyone else is doing it, too. The
actuator/servo control theory-amenable model of societal state seems
like a tough row to hoe.

I know a gentleman who\'s an economist that\'s published some papers on
international trade dynamics, supply sources and sinks, etc. I admit I
don\'t really understand a word of them and they\'re very math-heavy.

Yes. Macroeconomics is mostly theoretical math.

And some economic theory experts prefer tractable - but unrealistic - mathematical models to the kind of model that represents reality by reflecting the irrationality of the people doing the trading/

> Someone asked \"If you\'re an economist, how come you ain\'t rich?\"

John Maynard Keynes became rich, and he made King\'s College (in Cambridge U.K.) a lot richer when he was their bursar.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[whit3rd]

On Tuesday, November 23, 2021 at 2:37:58 PM UTC-8, John Larkin wrote:

On Tue, 23 Nov 2021 14:23:30 -0800 (PST), whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com
wrote:
On Tuesday, November 23, 2021 at 7:05:41 AM UTC-8, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/11/22/china-announces-major-investment-ivf-reverse-birth-collapse/

Slightly on topic is the observation that experts are useless, or
worse than useless, in managing big, chaotic systems.

Useless observation. The systems that are hard to manage are
often called chaotic, and the most visible ones are big.

Famously, war is one of those systems; \'plans are useless, but planning
is indispensable\' was Eisenhower\'s take on the situation.
So, we should support politicians doing planning,

In general, no. If they are trying to control a process that they
don\'t understand - which is the usual case - they make things worse.

That\'s a \'yes\', then, as I see it. By \'support politicians doing planning\'
I intended to support WITH real understanding, perhaps from the halls of academia,
or from potato farmers, and use the understanding of (usually) non-political
experts rather than the posturings of... another Karl Rove or Roger Stone.

The right advisers will give good advice. That\'s useful, though some chaos is still to be expected.
Al Gore showed us how politicians can do useful planning, when he shepherded the Internet into
existence. He didn\'t do that all himself, he got good support for the tech bits.

The Internet isn\'t completely controlled and understood, but it IS useful.

 

[legg]

On Tue, 23 Nov 2021 14:23:30 -0800 (PST), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
wrote:

On Tuesday, November 23, 2021 at 7:05:41 AM UTC-8, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/11/22/china-announces-major-investment-ivf-reverse-birth-collapse/

Slightly on topic is the observation that experts are useless, or
worse than useless, in managing big, chaotic systems.

Useless observation. The systems that are hard to manage are
often called chaotic, and the most visible ones are big.

Famously, war is one of those systems; \'plans are useless, but planning
is indispensable\' was Eisenhower\'s take on the situation. He got that
right. Public planning, unlike military planning, gets wide discussion with
the public, so bad decisions (like prohibition of alcohol in the US)
get lots of press and that\'s political poison.

So, we should support politicians doing planning, AND shouldn\'t blame bigness, or chaos,
when our plans go awry. They will, we have to expect. And, like
with atmospheric carbon, we\'ll have to re-plan, because...

\"planning is indespensable\"

.. . . but objectives are unclear . . .

RL