More evidence that China is lying BIG TIME about the extent

[Flyguy]

The Chicomm lovers of the world (i.e. Sloman) will have to come to grip with the fact that China is totally lying about what is happening in the country. I reported earlier that there has been an unprecedented number of cell phone disconnects in China (21 million). Now, funeral homes in Wuhan have markedly increased their orders of urns:

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914

And this is just Wuhan - millions left the city after the lockdown was announced. No doubt that many of these have spread the disease to other parts of the country. China is likely looking a millions of deaths to COVID before this is over.

 

[bitrex]

On 3/30/2020 1:15 PM, Flyguy wrote:

The Chicomm lovers of the world (i.e. Sloman) will have to come to grip with the fact that China is totally lying about what is happening in the country. I reported earlier that there has been an unprecedented number of cell phone disconnects in China (21 million). Now, funeral homes in Wuhan have markedly increased their orders of urns:

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914

And this is just Wuhan - millions left the city after the lockdown was announced. No doubt that many of these have spread the disease to other parts of the country. China is likely looking a millions of deaths to COVID before this is over.

China has well over 1 million deaths from lung cancer alone each year
due to air pollution and commonness of cigarette smoking and they're
trying to infer things from urn shipments of units of 10ks?

<https://canceratlas.cancer.org/news/cancer-in-china-more-than-7500-deaths-per-day-estimated/>

The possibility is surely there they got a backlog of bodies from before
the epidemic even started they didn't get around to.

"Republican Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas cited the urn deliveries on
Sunday to accuse China of misrepresenting the impact of the virus."

Either the virus is way more deadly than other contributing causes like
this Trumper seems to be claiming or the fatalities are swamped by other
causes like how NYC has 500 deaths per day from other illnesses (Wuhan
is about the same size) and it's a drop in the bucket like the other
Trumpers are claiming, it's all a Democrat plot, and it's time to
re-open. muthafuckas better get their conspiracy theories on the same page.

 

[speff]

On Monday, 30 March 2020 13:15:50 UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:

The Chicomm lovers of the world (i.e. Sloman) will have to come to grip with the fact that China is totally lying about what is happening in the country. I reported earlier that there has been an unprecedented number of cell phone disconnects in China (21 million). Now, funeral homes in Wuhan have markedly increased their orders of urns:

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914

And this is just Wuhan - millions left the city after the lockdown was announced. No doubt that many of these have spread the disease to other parts of the country. China is likely looking a millions of deaths to COVID before this is over.

China has done a fantastic job containing this to Hubei. No city outside Hubei got more than about 500 cases due to aggressive contact tracing of
something like a million people, using a staff of something like 5,000 people
working full time.

They are being very, very cautious in permitting businesses to re-open, so
I don't think we're going to see any major fumbles. Truly belt and suspenders. Masks are required, hand sanitizers are required. Various
other requirements for the businesses.

You can't get onto the subway without a clean bill of health. You can't
get into your own apartment without the security guard checking your ID
and temperature. If someone does turn up sick, they quarantine the whole
section that used the stairwell. Travel requires a "green" health check.
They also use travel history (to buy a train ticket you have to scan
your ID on the vending machine). They were able to identify every rider on a 4 hour bus journey using the CCTV security camera and show that the virus can infect over a much longer distance than previously thought.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

South Korea and Taiwan have also been able to keep it out of their major
cities by using less invasive methods. All good examples of competent public health protection and they had to act fast and make decisions on the fly.

More detailed China info here: https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia
(use Chrome to translate, the English version doesn't have the domestic detail)

--sp




--

 

[whit3rd]

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 10:15:50 AM UTC-7, Flyguy wrote:

The Chicomm lovers of the world (i.e. Sloman) will have to come to grip with the fact that China is totally lying about...

Nonsense. The central authority in China has apparently been open and honest (though
a population of 1.4 billion means some individuals might not be).

"Totally lying" is so broad, it cannot be true. It cannot even be false. It's meaningless.

What does the 'Sloman' reference add? Are you just trying to push some parsonality
buttons? Again? Tiresome little provocateur!

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 2:08:34 PM UTC-4, speff wrote:

On Monday, 30 March 2020 13:15:50 UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:
The Chicomm lovers of the world (i.e. Sloman) will have to come to grip with the fact that China is totally lying about what is happening in the country. I reported earlier that there has been an unprecedented number of cell phone disconnects in China (21 million). Now, funeral homes in Wuhan have markedly increased their orders of urns:

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914

And this is just Wuhan - millions left the city after the lockdown was announced. No doubt that many of these have spread the disease to other parts of the country. China is likely looking a millions of deaths to COVID before this is over.

China has done a fantastic job containing this to Hubei. No city outside Hubei got more than about 500 cases due to aggressive contact tracing of
something like a million people, using a staff of something like 5,000 people
working full time.

They are being very, very cautious in permitting businesses to re-open, so
I don't think we're going to see any major fumbles. Truly belt and suspenders. Masks are required, hand sanitizers are required. Various
other requirements for the businesses.

So that is where all the masks and hand sanitizer went! We need to get it back from them.

You can't get onto the subway without a clean bill of health. You can't
get into your own apartment without the security guard checking your ID
and temperature. If someone does turn up sick, they quarantine the whole
section that used the stairwell. Travel requires a "green" health check.
They also use travel history (to buy a train ticket you have to scan
your ID on the vending machine). They were able to identify every rider on a 4 hour bus journey using the CCTV security camera and show that the virus can infect over a much longer distance than previously thought.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

South Korea and Taiwan have also been able to keep it out of their major
cities by using less invasive methods. All good examples of competent public health protection and they had to act fast and make decisions on the fly.

More detailed China info here: https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia
(use Chrome to translate, the English version doesn't have the domestic detail)

Yeah, the US has really fucked this up. And Trump is now saying if we keep the death count to 100,000 we will have done good.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[bitrex]

On 3/30/2020 2:21 PM, whit3rd wrote:

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 10:15:50 AM UTC-7, Flyguy wrote:
The Chicomm lovers of the world (i.e. Sloman) will have to come to grip with the fact that China is totally lying about...


Nonsense. The central authority in China has apparently been open and honest (though
a population of 1.4 billion means some individuals might not be).

"Totally lying" is so broad, it cannot be true. It cannot even be false. It's meaningless.

What does the 'Sloman' reference add? Are you just trying to push some parsonality
buttons? Again? Tiresome little provocateur!

Tossing conspiracies around isn't conducive to an "engineering mentality."

They should at least be logically consistent.

 

[Flyguy]

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 11:21:59 AM UTC-7, whit3rd wrote:

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 10:15:50 AM UTC-7, Flyguy wrote:
The Chicomm lovers of the world (i.e. Sloman) will have to come to grip with the fact that China is totally lying about...


Nonsense. The central authority in China has apparently been open and honest (though
a population of 1.4 billion means some individuals might not be).

"Totally lying" is so broad, it cannot be true. It cannot even be false. It's meaningless.

What does the 'Sloman' reference add? Are you just trying to push some parsonality
buttons? Again? Tiresome little provocateur!

LOL! "Open and honest?" Are you FUCKING JOKING??? They have been ANYTHING BUT! Chicomms instinct is to lie first, apologize later. More evidence of their lies:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/coronavirus-wuhan-doctor-ai-fen-speaks-out-against-authorities

They kept on saying that there was no evidence of human-to-human transfer for THREE WEEKS after they knew otherwise! This, BY IT SELF, makes China responsible for the world-wide epidemic.

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 6:26:05 PM UTC-4, Uwe Bonnes wrote:

Flyguy <soar2morrow@yahoo.com> wrote:
The Chicomm lovers of the world (i.e. Sloman) will have to come to
grip with the fact that China is totally lying about what is happening
in the country. I reported earlier that there has been an
unprecedented number of cell phone disconnects in China (21
million). Now, funeral homes in Wuhan have markedly increased their
orders of urns:

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914

And this is just Wuhan - millions left the city after the lockdown
was announced. No doubt that many of these have spread the disease to
other parts of the country. China is likely looking a millions of
deaths to COVID before this is over.

Wuhan has about 10 Millions of inhabitants. You can expect more than 10000 to
die each month. If the town was in total lockdown for more than 2
month, there are about 25000 urns that await some final rest even w/o
any additional Covid-19 victims.

Don't be talking sense to the guy. His mind can't handle the truth!

--

Rick C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Uwe Bonnes]

Flyguy <soar2morrow@yahoo.com> wrote:

The Chicomm lovers of the world (i.e. Sloman) will have to come to
grip with the fact that China is totally lying about what is happening
in the country. I reported earlier that there has been an
unprecedented number of cell phone disconnects in China (21
million). Now, funeral homes in Wuhan have markedly increased their
orders of urns:

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914

And this is just Wuhan - millions left the city after the lockdown
was announced. No doubt that many of these have spread the disease to
other parts of the country. China is likely looking a millions of
deaths to COVID before this is over.

Wuhan has about 10 Millions of inhabitants. You can expect more than 10000 to
die each month. If the town was in total lockdown for more than 2
month, there are about 25000 urns that await some final rest even w/o
any additional Covid-19 victims.


--
Uwe Bonnes bon@elektron.ikp.physik.tu-darmstadt.de

Institut fuer Kernphysik Schlossgartenstrasse 9 64289 Darmstadt
--------- Tel. 06151 1623569 ------- Fax. 06151 1623305 ---------

 

[bitrex]

On 3/30/2020 4:52 PM, Flyguy wrote:

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 11:21:59 AM UTC-7, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 10:15:50 AM UTC-7, Flyguy wrote:
The Chicomm lovers of the world (i.e. Sloman) will have to come to grip with the fact that China is totally lying about...


Nonsense. The central authority in China has apparently been open and honest (though
a population of 1.4 billion means some individuals might not be).

"Totally lying" is so broad, it cannot be true. It cannot even be false. It's meaningless.

What does the 'Sloman' reference add? Are you just trying to push some parsonality
buttons? Again? Tiresome little provocateur!

LOL! "Open and honest?" Are you FUCKING JOKING??? They have been ANYTHING BUT! Chicomms instinct is to lie first, apologize later. More evidence of their lies:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/coronavirus-wuhan-doctor-ai-fen-speaks-out-against-authorities

They kept on saying that there was no evidence of human-to-human transfer for THREE WEEKS after they knew otherwise! This, BY IT SELF, makes China responsible for the world-wide epidemic.

They're exploiting the situation for their own gain for sure but they're
a bit more clever about it than cotton-brain Tom Cotton could wrap his
head around.

 

[bitrex]

On 3/30/2020 6:39 PM, Rick C wrote:

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 6:26:05 PM UTC-4, Uwe Bonnes wrote:
Flyguy <soar2morrow@yahoo.com> wrote:
The Chicomm lovers of the world (i.e. Sloman) will have to come to
grip with the fact that China is totally lying about what is happening
in the country. I reported earlier that there has been an
unprecedented number of cell phone disconnects in China (21
million). Now, funeral homes in Wuhan have markedly increased their
orders of urns:

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914

And this is just Wuhan - millions left the city after the lockdown
was announced. No doubt that many of these have spread the disease to
other parts of the country. China is likely looking a millions of
deaths to COVID before this is over.

Wuhan has about 10 Millions of inhabitants. You can expect more than 10000 to
die each month. If the town was in total lockdown for more than 2
month, there are about 25000 urns that await some final rest even w/o
any additional Covid-19 victims.

Don't be talking sense to the guy. His mind can't handle the truth!

Funerary/mortuary services are commercial in China rather like they're
commercial most other places. Like most commercial services they don't
keep much slack capacity sitting around to handle even a small but very
sudden percentage increase in demand, the capacity is keyed to what the
market has been for some time.

Basic queuing theory; a small dearth of slack capacity can rapidly lead
to a good-sized backlog.

 

[bitrex]

On 3/30/2020 9:15 PM, bitrex wrote:

On 3/30/2020 6:39 PM, Rick C wrote:
On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 6:26:05 PM UTC-4, Uwe Bonnes wrote:
Flyguy <soar2morrow@yahoo.com> wrote:
The Chicomm lovers of the world (i.e. Sloman) will have to come to
grip with the fact that China is totally lying about what is happening
in the country. I reported earlier that there has been an
unprecedented number of cell phone disconnects in China (21
million). Now, funeral homes in Wuhan have markedly increased their
orders of urns:

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914


And this is just Wuhan - millions left the city after the lockdown
was announced. No doubt that many of these have spread the disease to
other parts of the country. China is likely looking a millions of
deaths to COVID before this is over.

Wuhan has about 10 Millions of inhabitants. You can expect more than
10000 to
die each month. If the town was in total lockdown for more than 2
month, there are about 25000 urns that await some final rest even w/o
any additional Covid-19 victims.

Don't be talking sense to the guy.  His mind can't handle the truth!


Funerary/mortuary services are commercial in China rather like they're
commercial most other places. Like most commercial services they don't
keep much slack capacity sitting around to handle even a small but very
sudden percentage increase in demand, the capacity is keyed to what the
market has been for some time.

Basic queuing theory; a small dearth of slack capacity can rapidly lead
to a good-sized backlog.

Ever sat in 5 miles traffic for 45 min and at the end is like one police
cruiser, one work truck, and two guys puttering with a small hole in the
pavement with all of 100 yards of one lane closed? and you think all
that, was for THAT?

 

[Flyguy]

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 3:26:05 PM UTC-7, Uwe Bonnes wrote:

The Chicomm lovers of the world (i.e. Sloman) will have to come to
grip with the fact that China is totally lying about what is happening
in the country. I reported earlier that there has been an
unprecedented number of cell phone disconnects in China (21
million). Now, funeral homes in Wuhan have markedly increased their
orders of urns:

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914

And this is just Wuhan - millions left the city after the lockdown
was announced. No doubt that many of these have spread the disease to
other parts of the country. China is likely looking a millions of
deaths to COVID before this is over.

Wuhan has about 10 Millions of inhabitants. You can expect more than 10000 to
die each month. If the town was in total lockdown for more than 2
month, there are about 25000 urns that await some final rest even w/o
any additional Covid-19 victims.


--
Uwe Bonnes bon@elektron.ikp.physik.tu-darmstadt.de

Institut fuer Kernphysik Schlossgartenstrasse 9 64289 Darmstadt
--------- Tel. 06151 1623569 ------- Fax. 06151 1623305 ---------

You need to re-read the article: the demand for urns is UP year-over-year by, at least, 26,000. Where did all of these extra dead people come from? Use your brain!

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 7:52:50 AM UTC+11, Flyguy wrote:

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 11:21:59 AM UTC-7, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 10:15:50 AM UTC-7, Flyguy wrote:
The Chicomm lovers of the world (i.e. Sloman) will have to come to grip with the fact that China is totally lying about...


Nonsense. The central authority in China has apparently been open and honest (though
a population of 1.4 billion means some individuals might not be).

"Totally lying" is so broad, it cannot be true. It cannot even be false. It's meaningless.

What does the 'Sloman' reference add? Are you just trying to push some parsonality
buttons? Again? Tiresome little provocateur!

LOL! "Open and honest?" Are you FUCKING JOKING??? They have been ANYTHING BUT! Chicomms instinct is to lie first, apologize later. More evidence of their lies:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/coronavirus-wuhan-doctor-ai-fen-speaks-out-against-authorities

They kept on saying that there was no evidence of human-to-human transfer for THREE WEEKS after they knew otherwise! This, BY IT SELF, makes China responsible for the world-wide epidemic.

The Guardian article makes it clear that the unwillingess to face the reality of the problem was an initial - local - reaction in December and early January.

At that point the central government got interested and got their act in order.

China certainly allowed a lot of infected people to fly to foreign countries, but that was before they had a clear idea of what was going on.

Flyguy is deeply into China bashing, but only superficially interested in what he is bashing them about. He'll post half-baked story serves his purpose.

--
Bioll Sloman, Sydney

 

[bitrex]

On 3/30/2020 9:19 PM, Flyguy wrote:

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 3:26:05 PM UTC-7, Uwe Bonnes wrote:
The Chicomm lovers of the world (i.e. Sloman) will have to come to
grip with the fact that China is totally lying about what is happening
in the country. I reported earlier that there has been an
unprecedented number of cell phone disconnects in China (21
million). Now, funeral homes in Wuhan have markedly increased their
orders of urns:

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914

And this is just Wuhan - millions left the city after the lockdown
was announced. No doubt that many of these have spread the disease to
other parts of the country. China is likely looking a millions of
deaths to COVID before this is over.

Wuhan has about 10 Millions of inhabitants. You can expect more than 10000 to
die each month. If the town was in total lockdown for more than 2
month, there are about 25000 urns that await some final rest even w/o
any additional Covid-19 victims.


--
Uwe Bonnes bon@elektron.ikp.physik.tu-darmstadt.de

Institut fuer Kernphysik Schlossgartenstrasse 9 64289 Darmstadt
--------- Tel. 06151 1623569 ------- Fax. 06151 1623305 ---------

You need to re-read the article: the demand for urns is UP year-over-year by, at least, 26,000. Where did all of these extra dead people come from? Use your brain!

Where does it say that in the article? The number "26,000" is mentioned
in two places:

"Some Wuhan residents estimate that the coronavirus death toll could be
26,000..."

"...they estimate that the urns show that the coronavirus outbreak could
have resulted in approximately 26,000 deaths."

Could have, some believe...some believe there may yet be brothers of
man... who even now fight to survive - somewhere beyond the heavens

 

[bitrex]

On 3/30/2020 1:15 PM, Flyguy wrote:

The Chicomm lovers of the world (i.e. Sloman) will have to come to grip with the fact that China is totally lying about what is happening in the country. I reported earlier that there has been an unprecedented number of cell phone disconnects in China (21 million). Now, funeral homes in Wuhan have markedly increased their orders of urns:

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914

And this is just Wuhan - millions left the city after the lockdown was announced. No doubt that many of these have spread the disease to other parts of the country. China is likely looking a millions of deaths to COVID before this is over.

The journalist's mortality-"math" is retarded and assumes the
conclusion. I wonder if they've heard of Bayes' theroem...hmm

 

[Flyguy]

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 7:00:42 PM UTC-7, bitrex wrote:

On 3/30/2020 9:19 PM, Flyguy wrote:
On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 3:26:05 PM UTC-7, Uwe Bonnes wrote:
The Chicomm lovers of the world (i.e. Sloman) will have to come to
grip with the fact that China is totally lying about what is happening
in the country. I reported earlier that there has been an
unprecedented number of cell phone disconnects in China (21
million). Now, funeral homes in Wuhan have markedly increased their
orders of urns:

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914

And this is just Wuhan - millions left the city after the lockdown
was announced. No doubt that many of these have spread the disease to
other parts of the country. China is likely looking a millions of
deaths to COVID before this is over.

Wuhan has about 10 Millions of inhabitants. You can expect more than 10000 to
die each month. If the town was in total lockdown for more than 2
month, there are about 25000 urns that await some final rest even w/o
any additional Covid-19 victims.


--
Uwe Bonnes bon@elektron.ikp.physik.tu-darmstadt.de

Institut fuer Kernphysik Schlossgartenstrasse 9 64289 Darmstadt
--------- Tel. 06151 1623569 ------- Fax. 06151 1623305 ---------

You need to re-read the article: the demand for urns is UP year-over-year by, at least, 26,000. Where did all of these extra dead people come from? Use your brain!


Where does it say that in the article? The number "26,000" is mentioned
in two places:

"Some Wuhan residents estimate that the coronavirus death toll could be
26,000..."

"...they estimate that the urns show that the coronavirus outbreak could
have resulted in approximately 26,000 deaths."

Could have, some believe...some believe there may yet be brothers of
man... who even now fight to survive - somewhere beyond the heavens

There are several on the same subject and this one specifically cited 26,000:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wuhan-covid-19-deaths-may-be-in-tens-of-thousands-data-on-cremations-show/ar-BB11T0Vb

 

[Flyguy]

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 7:17:00 PM UTC-7, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 7:52:50 AM UTC+11, Flyguy wrote:
On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 11:21:59 AM UTC-7, whit3rd wrote:
On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 10:15:50 AM UTC-7, Flyguy wrote:
The Chicomm lovers of the world (i.e. Sloman) will have to come to grip with the fact that China is totally lying about...


Nonsense. The central authority in China has apparently been open and honest (though
a population of 1.4 billion means some individuals might not be).

"Totally lying" is so broad, it cannot be true. It cannot even be false. It's meaningless.

What does the 'Sloman' reference add? Are you just trying to push some parsonality
buttons? Again? Tiresome little provocateur!

LOL! "Open and honest?" Are you FUCKING JOKING??? They have been ANYTHING BUT! Chicomms instinct is to lie first, apologize later. More evidence of their lies:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/coronavirus-wuhan-doctor-ai-fen-speaks-out-against-authorities

They kept on saying that there was no evidence of human-to-human transfer for THREE WEEKS after they knew otherwise! This, BY IT SELF, makes China responsible for the world-wide epidemic.

The Guardian article makes it clear that the unwillingess to face the reality of the problem was an initial - local - reaction in December and early January.

At that point the central government got interested and got their act in order.

China certainly allowed a lot of infected people to fly to foreign countries, but that was before they had a clear idea of what was going on.

Flyguy is deeply into China bashing, but only superficially interested in what he is bashing them about. He'll post half-baked story serves his purpose.

--
Bioll Sloman, Sydney

No, China is BASHING THE WORLD! They LIED about COVID for WEEKS!! What is half-baked is your reply.

 

[bitrex]

On 3/31/2020 2:21 AM, Flyguy wrote:

On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 7:00:42 PM UTC-7, bitrex wrote:
On 3/30/2020 9:19 PM, Flyguy wrote:
On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 3:26:05 PM UTC-7, Uwe Bonnes wrote:
The Chicomm lovers of the world (i.e. Sloman) will have to come to
grip with the fact that China is totally lying about what is happening
in the country. I reported earlier that there has been an
unprecedented number of cell phone disconnects in China (21
million). Now, funeral homes in Wuhan have markedly increased their
orders of urns:

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914

And this is just Wuhan - millions left the city after the lockdown
was announced. No doubt that many of these have spread the disease to
other parts of the country. China is likely looking a millions of
deaths to COVID before this is over.

Wuhan has about 10 Millions of inhabitants. You can expect more than 10000 to
die each month. If the town was in total lockdown for more than 2
month, there are about 25000 urns that await some final rest even w/o
any additional Covid-19 victims.


--
Uwe Bonnes bon@elektron.ikp.physik.tu-darmstadt.de

Institut fuer Kernphysik Schlossgartenstrasse 9 64289 Darmstadt
--------- Tel. 06151 1623569 ------- Fax. 06151 1623305 ---------

You need to re-read the article: the demand for urns is UP year-over-year by, at least, 26,000. Where did all of these extra dead people come from? Use your brain!


Where does it say that in the article? The number "26,000" is mentioned
in two places:

"Some Wuhan residents estimate that the coronavirus death toll could be
26,000..."

"...they estimate that the urns show that the coronavirus outbreak could
have resulted in approximately 26,000 deaths."

Could have, some believe...some believe there may yet be brothers of
man... who even now fight to survive - somewhere beyond the heavens

There are several on the same subject and this one specifically cited 26,000:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wuhan-covid-19-deaths-may-be-in-tens-of-thousands-data-on-cremations-show/ar-BB11T0Vb

I wouldn't expect the number of deaths per year to linearly track
population growth even just in regular times; if the growth rate is
slowing (the second derivative is negative) then each year older people
are a larger proportion of the population than the year previous and the
per-person chance is definitely not equally distributed by age.

AFAIK China's second derivative is negative many places, they worked at
that for decades until 2015 with the one-child policy. Like many first
and second world countries e.g. Japan they have an aging-population
"problem", now.

<https://www.statista.com/statistics/270165/death-rate-in-china/>

"In 2018, the mortality rate in China increased to 7.13 deaths per 1,000
inhabitants. The mortality rate presented a slowly growing trend over
the past twenty years. The growing mortality rate can be attributed to
the slower growth of the whole population." 7.09, 7.11, 7.13, and in
2019 says here it was 7.3 per thousand.

The above-linear increase in deaths year-over-year among an aging
population could be just the result that it was a Communist team effort
for the better part of 40 years to get that. go team?

 

[bitrex]

On 3/31/2020 4:15 AM, bitrex wrote:

On 3/31/2020 2:21 AM, Flyguy wrote:
On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 7:00:42 PM UTC-7, bitrex wrote:
On 3/30/2020 9:19 PM, Flyguy wrote:
On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 3:26:05 PM UTC-7, Uwe Bonnes wrote:
The Chicomm lovers of the world (i.e. Sloman) will have to come to
grip with the fact that China is totally lying about what is
happening
in the country. I reported earlier that there has been an
unprecedented number of cell phone disconnects in China (21
million). Now, funeral homes in Wuhan have markedly increased their
orders of urns:

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914


And this is just Wuhan - millions left the city after the lockdown
was announced. No doubt that many of these have spread the disease to
other parts of the country. China is likely looking a millions of
deaths to COVID before this is over.

Wuhan has about 10 Millions of inhabitants. You can expect more
than 10000 to
die each month. If the town was in total lockdown for more than 2
month, there are about 25000 urns that await some final rest even w/o
any additional Covid-19 victims.


--
Uwe Bonnes                bon@elektron.ikp.physik.tu-darmstadt.de

Institut fuer Kernphysik  Schlossgartenstrasse 9  64289 Darmstadt
--------- Tel. 06151 1623569 ------- Fax. 06151 1623305 ---------

You need to re-read the article: the demand for urns is UP
year-over-year by, at least, 26,000. Where did all of these extra
dead people come from? Use your brain!


Where does it say that in the article? The number "26,000" is mentioned
in two places:

"Some Wuhan residents estimate that the coronavirus death toll could be
26,000..."

"...they estimate that the urns show that the coronavirus outbreak could
have resulted in approximately 26,000 deaths."

Could have, some believe...some believe there may yet be brothers of
man... who even now fight to survive - somewhere beyond the heavens

There are several on the same subject and this one specifically cited
26,000:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wuhan-covid-19-deaths-may-be-in-tens-of-thousands-data-on-cremations-show/ar-BB11T0Vb



I wouldn't expect the number of deaths per year to linearly track
population growth even just in regular times; if the growth rate is
slowing (the second derivative is negative) then each year older people
are a larger proportion of the population than the year previous and the
per-person chance is definitely not equally distributed by age.

AFAIK China's second derivative is negative many places, they worked at
that for decades until 2015 with the one-child policy. Like many first
and second world countries e.g. Japan they have an aging-population
"problem", now.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/270165/death-rate-in-china/

"In 2018, the mortality rate in China increased to 7.13 deaths per 1,000
inhabitants. The mortality rate presented a slowly growing trend over
the past twenty years. The growing mortality rate can be attributed to
the slower growth of the whole population." 7.09, 7.11, 7.13, and in
2019 says here it was 7.3 per thousand.

The above-linear increase in deaths year-over-year among an aging
population could be just the result that it was a Communist team effort
for the better part of 40 years to get that. go team?

My hypothesis is that whatever they're seeing is an "optical illusion"
produced from unusual congruence of just around the stated number of
C-19 casualties plus a substantial but "natural" increase in the
mortality rate from after-effects of the one-child policy incidentally
kicking in hard the past several years.

Which way it is will come out in the wash eventually, I guess.