Masks need not be perfect to be effective...

J

Joe Gwinn

Guest
On the matter of masks and COVID19, there has been a lot of obsession
with getting 95% percent rated masks (even if nobody wears them well
enough to achieve that level of performance). Anyway, there is a
back-of-the-envelope analysis that bounds the problem:

Assume that we have a population where the same kind of mask is worn
by all, and that this mask is only 75% effective (this is low).

People spend most of their time talking, not coughing, so we will use
talking for this example. The math is the same.

Person A is talking, generating droplets. A\'s mask stops 75% of the
droplets and passes the remaining 25%.

Person B is listening. B\'s mask blocks 75% of A\'s 25%, and passes 25%
of that 25% along, receiving a net of 6.25%.

The current value of R (number of people who catch COVID per infected
person) is say 5 (this is high). The net value of R is thus
(5)(0.25)(0.25)= 0.3125, well below the unity required for COVID to
even hang on, never mind grow.

Joe Gwinn
 
On 8/22/2020 3:33 PM, Joe Gwinn wrote:
On the matter of masks and COVID19, there has been a lot of obsession
with getting 95% percent rated masks (even if nobody wears them well
enough to achieve that level of performance). Anyway, there is a
back-of-the-envelope analysis that bounds the problem:

Assume that we have a population where the same kind of mask is worn
by all, and that this mask is only 75% effective (this is low).

In practice, it actually may NOT be low. Many people don\'t wear masks
properly. I saw a woman today wearing a lexan \"face shield\"; all that
does is just push her exhaust out to the sides... nothing to capture or
limit it!

People spend most of their time talking, not coughing, so we will use
talking for this example. The math is the same.

Though talking THROUGH a mask often requires moving more air in order
to be understood!

Person A is talking, generating droplets. A\'s mask stops 75% of the
droplets and passes the remaining 25%.

Person B is listening. B\'s mask blocks 75% of A\'s 25%, and passes 25%
of that 25% along, receiving a net of 6.25%.

The current value of R (number of people who catch COVID per infected
person) is say 5 (this is high). The net value of R is thus
(5)(0.25)(0.25)= 0.3125, well below the unity required for COVID to
even hang on, never mind grow.

I think Gu uses a figure of 10 for spread. His projections (obviously
continuously updated) seem to be reasonably accurate.

And, you\'re ignoring the integrating effect of breathing.
Stand next to that speaker for three hours and even if 90%
of their exhaust has been captured, you\'ve still ACCUMULATED
lots of viral particles!
 
On 8/22/2020 3:38 PM, Don Y wrote:
The current value of R (number of people who catch COVID per infected
person) is say 5 (this is high). The net value of R is thus
(5)(0.25)(0.25)= 0.3125, well below the unity required for COVID to
even hang on, never mind grow.

I think Gu uses a figure of 10 for spread. His projections (obviously
continuously updated) seem to be reasonably accurate.

And, you\'re ignoring the integrating effect of breathing.
Stand next to that speaker for three hours and even if 90%
of their exhaust has been captured, you\'ve still ACCUMULATED
lots of viral particles!

Said another way, slot machines pay out between 97% and 99%
\"on average\". (This is REGULATED by local gaming ordinances.)
Yet, why do so many people end up losing their wad in such
short order? (Ans: because it\'s not a one-shot event!
\"The Grind\" chews away at it until it\'s gone!)
 
Once again, the troll is pretending to be an expert
while looking like an idiot...

--
Don Y <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid> wrote:

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From: Don Y <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid
Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design
Subject: Re: Masks need not be perfect to be effective
Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2020 15:38:42 -0700
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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On 8/22/2020 3:33 PM, Joe Gwinn wrote:
On the matter of masks and COVID19, there has been a lot of obsession
with getting 95% percent rated masks (even if nobody wears them well
enough to achieve that level of performance). Anyway, there is a
back-of-the-envelope analysis that bounds the problem:

Assume that we have a population where the same kind of mask is worn
by all, and that this mask is only 75% effective (this is low).

In practice, it actually may NOT be low. Many people don\'t wear masks
properly. I saw a woman today wearing a lexan \"face shield\"; all that
does is just push her exhaust out to the sides... nothing to capture or
limit it!

People spend most of their time talking, not coughing, so we will use
talking for this example. The math is the same.

Though talking THROUGH a mask often requires moving more air in order
to be understood!

Person A is talking, generating droplets. A\'s mask stops 75% of the
droplets and passes the remaining 25%.

Person B is listening. B\'s mask blocks 75% of A\'s 25%, and passes 25%
of that 25% along, receiving a net of 6.25%.

The current value of R (number of people who catch COVID per infected
person) is say 5 (this is high). The net value of R is thus
(5)(0.25)(0.25)= 0.3125, well below the unity required for COVID to
even hang on, never mind grow.

I think Gu uses a figure of 10 for spread. His projections (obviously
continuously updated) seem to be reasonably accurate.

And, you\'re ignoring the integrating effect of breathing.
Stand next to that speaker for three hours and even if 90%
of their exhaust has been captured, you\'ve still ACCUMULATED
lots of viral particles!
 
On 8/22/2020 4:03 PM, John Doe wrote:
Once again, the troll is pretending to be an expert
while looking like an idiot...

Gee, why does this clown keep crossposting to free.spam?

Maybe he doesn\'t know anything about science
or electronics
or design
??

But lots about SPAM!

(God it MUST hurt to be that stupid!)
 
On 23/08/2020 7:44 am, Don Y wrote:
On 8/22/2020 4:03 PM, John Doe wrote:
Once again, the troll is pretending to be an expert
while looking like an idiot...

Gee, why does this clown keep crossposting to free.spam?

Maybe he doesn\'t know anything about science
or electronics
or design
??

But lots about SPAM!

(God it MUST hurt to be that stupid!)

He must practice I reckon :)
 
On 8/22/2020 5:52 PM, RheillyPhoull wrote:
On 23/08/2020 7:44 am, Don Y wrote:
On 8/22/2020 4:03 PM, John Doe wrote:
Once again, the troll is pretending to be an expert
while looking like an idiot...

Gee, why does this clown keep crossposting to free.spam?

Maybe he doesn\'t know anything about science
or electronics
or design
??

But lots about SPAM!

(God it MUST hurt to be that stupid!)

He must practice I reckon :)

Hmmm.... does that mean he\'s really GOOD at it (being stupid)?
Or, is he still struggling to live up to his full potential
(of stupidity)?

:<
 
On 8/22/2020 6:33 PM, Joe Gwinn wrote:
On the matter of masks and COVID19, there has been a lot of obsession
with getting 95% percent rated masks (even if nobody wears them well
enough to achieve that level of performance). Anyway, there is a
back-of-the-envelope analysis that bounds the problem:

Assume that we have a population where the same kind of mask is worn
by all, and that this mask is only 75% effective (this is low).

People spend most of their time talking, not coughing, so we will use
talking for this example. The math is the same.

Person A is talking, generating droplets. A\'s mask stops 75% of the
droplets and passes the remaining 25%.

Person B is listening. B\'s mask blocks 75% of A\'s 25%, and passes 25%
of that 25% along, receiving a net of 6.25%.

The current value of R (number of people who catch COVID per infected
person) is say 5 (this is high). The net value of R is thus
(5)(0.25)(0.25)= 0.3125, well below the unity required for COVID to
even hang on, never mind grow.

Joe Gwinn

Never seen a \'perfect\' anything, yet...
 
On 23/08/2020 9:13 am, Don Y wrote:
On 8/22/2020 5:52 PM, RheillyPhoull wrote:
On 23/08/2020 7:44 am, Don Y wrote:
On 8/22/2020 4:03 PM, John Doe wrote:
Once again, the troll is pretending to be an expert
while looking like an idiot...

Gee, why does this clown keep crossposting to free.spam?

Maybe he doesn\'t know anything about science
or electronics
or design
??

But lots about SPAM!

(God it MUST hurt to be that stupid!)

He must practice I reckon :)

Hmmm.... does that mean he\'s really GOOD at it (being stupid)?
Or, is he still struggling to live up to his full potential
(of stupidity)?

:
Either way not a pretty sight.
 
On 8/22/2020 6:22 PM, bitrex wrote:
On 8/22/2020 6:33 PM, Joe Gwinn wrote:
On the matter of masks and COVID19, there has been a lot of obsession
with getting 95% percent rated masks (even if nobody wears them well
enough to achieve that level of performance). Anyway, there is a
back-of-the-envelope analysis that bounds the problem:

Assume that we have a population where the same kind of mask is worn
by all, and that this mask is only 75% effective (this is low).

People spend most of their time talking, not coughing, so we will use
talking for this example. The math is the same.

Person A is talking, generating droplets. A\'s mask stops 75% of the
droplets and passes the remaining 25%.

Person B is listening. B\'s mask blocks 75% of A\'s 25%, and passes 25%
of that 25% along, receiving a net of 6.25%.

The current value of R (number of people who catch COVID per infected
person) is say 5 (this is high). The net value of R is thus
(5)(0.25)(0.25)= 0.3125, well below the unity required for COVID to
even hang on, never mind grow.

Joe Gwinn

Never seen a \'perfect\' anything, yet...

I don\'t think masks need to be \"perfect\".

But, I think people need to be conscious of what they are intended to do.

E.g., a VENTED N95 mask doesn\'t do anything for those around you!
(though it may make YOU feel protected)

Spending half an hour chatting on your phone -- around others -- isn\'t
helping them any even if wearing a mask! (breathing emits 10X fewer
virus particles than talking so talking makes your mask that much LESS
effective)

[I really can\'t understand teh obsession with phones... are people THAT
lonely??]

Being out \"without cause\" exposes you -- and others -- to virus needlessly.
Does it really take two of you to buy groceries? And, do you have to
debate your purchases IN THE STORE instead of sorting that out AT HOME?
(imagine how much more effective your mask would be -- for you and
others -- if there were no other folks around! :> )

Having to continually readjust your mask suggests it\'s likely not doing
its job for at least SOME portion of the time.

Having a poorly *fitted* mask (even if not requiring readjustment) leaves
you with the inconvenience of the mask and less of its benefits. Sort of
like using condoms that have pinholes in them and wondering how she got
pregnant!

Poor mask hygiene (how often do you replace/sanitize your mask?) can
increase your risk of getting \"something else\" (I don\'t think you
want to increase your need for medical care at this time!)
 
On Saturday, August 22, 2020 at 3:33:18 PM UTC-7, Joe Gwinn wrote:
On the matter of masks and COVID19, there has been a lot of obsession
with getting 95% percent rated masks (even if nobody wears them well
enough to achieve that level of performance). Anyway, there is a
back-of-the-envelope analysis that bounds the problem:

Assume that we have a population where the same kind of mask is worn
by all, and that this mask is only 75% effective (this is low).

People spend most of their time talking, not coughing, so we will use
talking for this example. The math is the same.

Person A is talking, generating droplets. A\'s mask stops 75% of the
droplets and passes the remaining 25%.

Person B is listening. B\'s mask blocks 75% of A\'s 25%, and passes 25%
of that 25% along, receiving a net of 6.25%.

The current value of R (number of people who catch COVID per infected
person) is say 5 (this is high). The net value of R is thus
(5)(0.25)(0.25)= 0.3125, well below the unity required for COVID to
even hang on, never mind grow.

Joe Gwinn
You have done nothing more than manufacture numbers with no basis in reality. You have no actual evidence to support what you are saying. This is worse than saying nothing at all because it is total speculation.
 
On Sunday, August 23, 2020 at 3:19:15 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, August 22, 2020 at 3:33:18 PM UTC-7, Joe Gwinn wrote:
On the matter of masks and COVID19, there has been a lot of obsession
with getting 95% percent rated masks (even if nobody wears them well
enough to achieve that level of performance). Anyway, there is a
back-of-the-envelope analysis that bounds the problem:

Assume that we have a population where the same kind of mask is worn
by all, and that this mask is only 75% effective (this is low).

People spend most of their time talking, not coughing, so we will use
talking for this example. The math is the same.

Person A is talking, generating droplets. A\'s mask stops 75% of the
droplets and passes the remaining 25%.

Person B is listening. B\'s mask blocks 75% of A\'s 25%, and passes 25%
of that 25% along, receiving a net of 6.25%.

The current value of R (number of people who catch COVID per infected
person) is say 5 (this is high). The net value of R is thus
(5)(0.25)(0.25)= 0.3125, well below the unity required for COVID to
even hang on, never mind grow.

You have done nothing more than manufacture numbers with no basis in reality. You have no actual evidence to support what you are saying. This is worse than saying nothing at all because it is total speculation.

Or so Flyguy thinks. In fact it is a decidedly obvious exposition of the obvious, which is worth doing for people who aren\'t bright enough to do it for themselves - which does include Flyguy - but are bright enough to realise that it makes sense when it is done for them - which clearly doesn\'t include Flyguy, who isdefinitely part of the depressingly extreme tail of the distribution of very dim people.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
Wore a mask before the coronavirus, as mandated (to cover his face)
by city ordinance...

--
RheillyPhoull <Rheilly@bigslong.com> wrote:

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Subject: Re: Masks need not be perfect to be effective
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On 23/08/2020 7:44 am, Don Y wrote:
On 8/22/2020 4:03 PM, John Doe wrote:
Once again, the troll is pretending to be an expert
while looking like an idiot...

Gee, why does this clown keep crossposting to free.spam?

Maybe he doesn\'t know anything about science
or electronics
or design
??

But lots about SPAM!

(God it MUST hurt to be that stupid!)

He must practice I reckon :)
 
Adding one group has nothing to do with \"spam\".
Besides, this rabid troll can\'t do anything about it.
Whining won\'t help...

--
Don Y <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid> wrote:

Path: eternal-september.org!reader01.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: Don Y <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid
Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design
Subject: Re: Masks need not be perfect to be effective
Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2020 16:44:44 -0700
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
Lines: 14
Message-ID: <rhsalo$48c$1@dont-email.me
References: <qb63kfpk5us039oisjcc05kp6slrh9dps6@4ax.com> <rhs6q5$hd7$1@dont-email.me> <rhs88h$ngc$1@dont-email.me
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On 8/22/2020 4:03 PM, John Doe wrote:
Once again, the troll is pretending to be an expert
while looking like an idiot...

Gee, why does this clown keep crossposting to free.spam?

Maybe he doesn\'t know anything about science
or electronics
or design
??

But lots about SPAM!

(God it MUST hurt to be that stupid!)
 
Why is this newbie troll complaining about adding one group?
The whiner should be complaining about me posting its header,
that\'s a lot more annoying...

--
Don Y <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid> wrote:

Path: eternal-september.org!reader01.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: Don Y <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid
Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design
Subject: Re: Masks need not be perfect to be effective
Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2020 16:44:44 -0700
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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On 8/22/2020 4:03 PM, John Doe wrote:
Once again, the troll is pretending to be an expert
while looking like an idiot...

Gee, why does this clown keep crossposting to free.spam?

Maybe he doesn\'t know anything about science
or electronics
or design
??

But lots about SPAM!

(God it MUST hurt to be that stupid!)
 
On 8/22/2020 8:30 PM, RheillyPhoull wrote:
On 23/08/2020 9:13 am, Don Y wrote:
On 8/22/2020 5:52 PM, RheillyPhoull wrote:
On 23/08/2020 7:44 am, Don Y wrote:
On 8/22/2020 4:03 PM, John Doe wrote:
Once again, the troll is pretending to be an expert
while looking like an idiot...

Gee, why does this clown keep crossposting to free.spam?

Maybe he doesn\'t know anything about science
or electronics
or design
??

But lots about SPAM!

(God it MUST hurt to be that stupid!)

He must practice I reckon :)

Hmmm.... does that mean he\'s really GOOD at it (being stupid)?
Or, is he still struggling to live up to his full potential
(of stupidity)?

:
Either way not a pretty sight.

Everyone has a right to be stupid, but he abuses the privilege.
 
Shouldn\'t quit its day job...

--
John S <Sophi.2@invalid.org> wrote:

Path: eternal-september.org!reader01.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: John S <Sophi.2@invalid.org
Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design
Subject: Re: Masks need not be perfect to be effective
Date: Sun, 23 Aug 2020 06:34:13 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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Xref: reader01.eternal-september.org sci.electronics.design:606284

On 8/22/2020 8:30 PM, RheillyPhoull wrote:
On 23/08/2020 9:13 am, Don Y wrote:
On 8/22/2020 5:52 PM, RheillyPhoull wrote:
On 23/08/2020 7:44 am, Don Y wrote:
On 8/22/2020 4:03 PM, John Doe wrote:
Once again, the troll is pretending to be an expert
while looking like an idiot...

Gee, why does this clown keep crossposting to free.spam?

Maybe he doesn\'t know anything about science
or electronics
or design
??

But lots about SPAM!

(God it MUST hurt to be that stupid!)

He must practice I reckon :)

Hmmm.... does that mean he\'s really GOOD at it (being stupid)?
Or, is he still struggling to live up to his full potential
(of stupidity)?

:
Either way not a pretty sight.

Everyone has a right to be stupid, but he abuses the privilege.
 
On 8/23/2020 7:26 AM, John Doe wrote:
Why is this newbie troll complaining about adding one group?
The whiner should be complaining about me posting its header,
that\'s a lot more annoying...

John Doe seems annoyed upstart trolls are muscling in on his
troll-territory. He worked hard at being top troll and demands tribute
 
On Sunday, August 23, 2020 at 12:35:39 PM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
On 8/23/2020 7:26 AM, John Doe wrote:
Why is this newbie troll complaining about adding one group?
The whiner should be complaining about me posting its header,
that\'s a lot more annoying...


John Doe seems annoyed upstart trolls are muscling in on his
troll-territory. He worked hard at being top troll and demands tribute

trolls calling out other trolls, that is when you know a group has hit saturation
 
On Sunday, August 23, 2020 at 1:01:19 PM UTC-4, blo...@columbus.rr.com wrote:
On Sunday, August 23, 2020 at 12:35:39 PM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
On 8/23/2020 7:26 AM, John Doe wrote:
Why is this newbie troll complaining about adding one group?
The whiner should be complaining about me posting its header,
that\'s a lot more annoying...


John Doe seems annoyed upstart trolls are muscling in on his
troll-territory. He worked hard at being top troll and demands tribute

trolls calling out other trolls, that is when you know a group has hit saturation

I\'m pretty sure the troll ratio is durn close to 100% in this group. Or maybe I should say \"drama queens\".


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Rick C.

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