EVs Will Soon Be Vastly Cheaper To Own Than Carbon Fuel Vehi

John Larkin · Dec 9, 2017

On Thu, 7 Dec 2017 08:44:04 -0800 (PST), Bret Cahill
<bretcahill@aol.com> wrote:

Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:

http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study

Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.

Even with short range & long charging times EV tow trucks make sense right now as they generally don't go far.

That's not what I meant.

Fire engines are another likely EV candidate.

Bret Cahill

To put out the battery fires?

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

Jeff Layman · Dec 10, 2017

On 03/12/17 18:06, Bret Cahill wrote:

Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:

http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study

Bret Cahill

It's an interesting idea, but is it viable? The weak point is Scandium.
According to the Wikipedia Scandium entry, current world production is
around only 10 tonnes! That wouldn't go very far, if you consider that
the magnesium-scandium-selenide spinel contains around 22% scandium if
you look at a typical formula - MgSc2Se4 - from the original Nature
article (<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01772-1&gt

. So,
currently, if all the world's Scandium was turned into batteries, it
would probably make enough for a few hundred cars at most.

And then you have consider where the Scandium would come from. Again,
from the Wiki, commercial production is at present from only three
sources - Ukraine, Russia, and China. Looks like we'd need a lot more
sources for production and price stability if it's to be used in a
mainstream battery. More info here:
<https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/scandium/mcs-2016-scand.pdf>

--

Jeff

Bret Cahill · Dec 11, 2017

Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:

http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study

Bret Cahill

It's an interesting idea, but is it viable? The weak point is Scandium.
According to the Wikipedia Scandium entry, current world production is
around only 10 tonnes! That wouldn't go very far, if you consider that
the magnesium-scandium-selenide spinel contains around 22% scandium if
you look at a typical formula - MgSc2Se4 - from the original Nature
article (<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01772-1&gt . So,
currently, if all the world's Scandium was turned into batteries, it
would probably make enough for a few hundred cars at most.

From your link:

"Resources of scandium are abundant in relation to demand. Scandium is rarely concentrated in nature because of its lack of affinity for the common ore- forming anions. It is widely dispersed in the lithosphere and forms solid solutions in more than 100 minerals."

<https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/scandium/mcs-2016-scand.pdf>

It seems like 1 cent/kW-hr power could really lower the cost of a lot of concentration processes.

For some reason this fact is never in the media.

And then you have consider where the Scandium would come from. Again,
from the Wiki, commercial production is at present from only three
sources - Ukraine, Russia, and China.

"There are identified scandium resources in Australia, Canada, China,
Kazakhstan, Madagascar, Norway, the Philippines, Russia, and Ukraine."

<https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/scandium/mcs-2016-scand.pdf>

rickman · Dec 13, 2017

John Larkin wrote on 12/8/2017 8:48 PM:

On Thu, 7 Dec 2017 08:44:04 -0800 (PST), Bret Cahill
bretcahill@aol.com> wrote:

Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:

http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study

Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.

Even with short range & long charging times EV tow trucks make sense right now as they generally don't go far.

That's not what I meant.

Fire engines are another likely EV candidate.

Bret Cahill

To put out the battery fires?

At least they can be doused with water. Gasoline fires are much harder to
fight. There was an accident on the DC beltway some years back where a car
cut off a gasoline tanker at the 270 split and the truck ended up straddling
the guard rail. Its momentum rammed it into the overpass abutment and it
came apart all over the highway. A number of people were maimed and killed.
The car that caused the accident was never found. They closed the
overpass until they could be sure the heat didn't weaken the steel. Of
course traffic was a total disaster.

At least car batteries won't release all the energy of a tanker filled with
gasoline!

This happened some time ago so to be sure of the details I googled the
accident. It was not so easy to find amongst all the many other gasoline
tanker accidents on the highways.

--

Rick C

Viewed the eclipse at Wintercrest Farms,
on the centerline of totality since 1998

Tom Del Rosso · Dec 15, 2017

Bret Cahill wrote:

Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which
Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a
better battery will appear, however. They have good information on
it and it isn't all that insider:

http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study

Bret Cahill

"electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study"

That's good news. Then we don't have to subsidize it.

Jim Thompson · Dec 15, 2017

On Fri, 15 Dec 2017 17:20:34 -0500, "Tom Del Rosso"
<fizzbintuesday@that-google-mail-domain.com> wrote:

Bret Cahill wrote:
Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which
Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a
better battery will appear, however. They have good information on
it and it isn't all that insider:

http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study

Bret Cahill

"electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study"

That's good news. Then we don't have to subsidize it.

Hurray!! Good news!

Bret Cahill · Dec 16, 2017

Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:

http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study

Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.

Even with short range & long charging times EV tow trucks make sense right now as they generally don't go far.

That's not what I meant.

Fire engines are another likely EV candidate.

Bret Cahill

To put out the battery fires?

At least they can be doused with water. Gasoline fires are much harder to
fight. There was an accident on the DC beltway some years back where a car
cut off a gasoline tanker at the 270 split and the truck ended up straddling
the guard rail. Its momentum rammed it into the overpass abutment and it
came apart all over the highway. A number of people were maimed and killed.
The car that caused the accident was never found. They closed the
overpass until they could be sure the heat didn't weaken the steel. Of
course traffic was a total disaster.

At least car batteries won't release all the energy of a tanker filled with
gasoline!

This happened some time ago so to be sure of the details I googled the
accident. It was not so easy to find amongst all the many other gasoline
tanker accidents on the highways.

One must-do if not entirely formal study would be to compare the stats on the number of lives lost developing and using fossil carbon technology, i.e., black lung, mine, boiler, drill rig and other explosions & fires, to number of deaths from non fossil tech, i.e., dams, Solar City, wind turbines, Galaxy cell phones, etc.

The basis would be life-years / joule.

Researchers could even include Dutchmen falling off old timey windmills, dare devil swimmers sucked through the turbines swimming across Lake Mead, whatever. You could easily get 2 sig fig accuracy.

Hyping such a study would hamstring snow trollers because they must at least pretend in their talking points no process can involve more than one step or involve more than one effect ("8 feet of Gore Bull wammin' just fell on Buffalo! BWAHAHAHAHA!").

Once you force them to open the door to consider multiple factors like the advances in safety regulations, tort law as well as the technology, it starts to drain the fun out of their "it's simple" shtick.

Bret Cahill

Dec 19, 2017

On Sunday, December 3, 2017 at 10:06:22 AM UTC-8, Bret Cahill wrote:

Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:

http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study

Bret Cahill

We used to have driverless cars, which could bring you home when you were asleep or drunk. Then they got rid of the horse.

Bring back the Horse and Buggy! Horses are solar-powered! They eat grass, which grows from sunlight!

4 hp Horse and Buggy! Now with steel ball bearings! Charge your cell phones with the onboard brushless motor alternator!

Michael

John Larkin · Dec 20, 2017

On Mon, 18 Dec 2017 15:11:30 -0800 (PST), mrdarrett@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, December 3, 2017 at 10:06:22 AM UTC-8, Bret Cahill wrote:
Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:

http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study

Bret Cahill

We used to have driverless cars, which could bring you home when you were asleep or drunk. Then they got rid of the horse.

Bring back the Horse and Buggy! Horses are solar-powered! They eat grass, which grows from sunlight!

4 hp Horse and Buggy! Now with steel ball bearings! Charge your cell phones with the onboard brushless motor alternator!

Michael

How much insurance does a horse need?

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

Bret Cahill · Jan 19, 2018

I once asked a relative of the manager of the largest engine plant in the world if the politics at GM was really that bad, already the stuff of course work, books and PhD papers.

He cringed with this grim don't even think about fixing it look. No matter what any CEO tried, he'd get out flanked by underlings.

Years later he said he'd be better off as a failed entrepreneur than work at GM.

Read the book, "The Reckoning" by David Halberstam. If you think GM is bad,
I bet Ford is worse.

Ford might not be quite as "hidebound" now as in the past.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-detroit-ford-motor/ford-plans-11-billion-investment-40-electrified-vehicles-by-2022-idUSKBN1F30YZ

I wish I had a < 5 week response time planning letters to politicians.

We're living in a philosopher-engineer's paradise. Just daydream out loud and it becomes reality in real time.

Bret Cahill

amdx · Jan 19, 2018

On 12/4/2017 10:34 AM, John Larkin wrote:

On Sun, 3 Dec 2017 10:06:16 -0800 (PST), Bret Cahill
bretcahill@aol.com> wrote:

Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:

http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study

Bret Cahill

Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.

I think we will need additional power generating plants.
Some reduced need because of night time charging. but at some point
there will be increased demand.

Mikek

rickman · Jan 19, 2018

Bret Cahill wrote on 1/19/2018 12:30 PM:

I once asked a relative of the manager of the largest engine plant in the world if the politics at GM was really that bad, already the stuff of course work, books and PhD papers.

He cringed with this grim don't even think about fixing it look. No matter what any CEO tried, he'd get out flanked by underlings.

Years later he said he'd be better off as a failed entrepreneur than work at GM.

Read the book, "The Reckoning" by David Halberstam. If you think GM is bad,
I bet Ford is worse.

Ford might not be quite as "hidebound" now as in the past.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-detroit-ford-motor/ford-plans-11-billion-investment-40-electrified-vehicles-by-2022-idUSKBN1F30YZ

I wish I had a < 5 week response time planning letters to politicians.

We're living in a philosopher-engineer's paradise. Just daydream out loud and it becomes reality in real time.

I'm sure you know what you are referring to, but I don't. I can't see
inside your head. Care to explain what you mean?

--

Rick C

Viewed the eclipse at Wintercrest Farms,
on the centerline of totality since 1998

Bret Cahill · Mar 24, 2018

robertscribbler.com

21 Mar 2018

Big Auto Freaks Out as Tesla Model 3 Deliveries for Q1 Track Toward
8,000 to 10,000

The major automakers are increasingly in a bind. They're faced with a
choice - keep investing in dirty energy vehicles that pollute the air,
the water and wreck the climate, jump feet first into the EV
revolution, or play both sides. And it's this dichotomy that's
producing some rather freaky behavior.

Bret Cahill · Jan 4, 2019

Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:

http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study

One concern.

It may be some situation where they just cannot adapt.

There is some "invisible psychological hand" as with the Vega:

https://qz.com/1510405/gms-layoffs-can-be-traced-to-its-quest-to-turn-people-into-machines/

John Larkin · Jan 4, 2019

On Thu, 3 Jan 2019 21:00:47 -0800 (PST), Bret Cahill
<bretcahill@aol.com> wrote:

Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:

http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12

Astonishing nonsense.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study

Subsidies make things cheaper? Gosh.

One concern.

It may be some situation where they just cannot adapt.

There is some "invisible psychological hand" as with the Vega:

https://qz.com/1510405/gms-layoffs-can-be-traced-to-its-quest-to-turn-people-into-machines/

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

lunatic fringe electronics

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