COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best...

[Rick C]

I recall how 9 months ago many were in pretty much complete denial of the seriousness of this disease. Predictions included forecasts of a quarter million US deaths by the end of this year and we managed to pull that off well ahead of schedule. The number of people maimed by this disease is much higher than that and ever growing at increasing rates.

So how many still deny that this is a very serious disease and needs to be addressed as such? I get that many in the world and in particular in the US are not bright enough to understand the numbers and often believe those with ulterior motives. But in this group it is hard to say people can\'t understand the nature of exponential growth and how rapidly the disease gets out of hand when we stop taking protective measures.

So is this group still populated by so many denialists? Or have people learned from others\' mistakes?

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[John Robertson]

On 2020/11/28 5:59 p.m., Rick C wrote:

I recall how 9 months ago many were in pretty much complete denial of the seriousness of this disease. Predictions included forecasts of a quarter million US deaths by the end of this year and we managed to pull that off well ahead of schedule. The number of people maimed by this disease is much higher than that and ever growing at increasing rates.

So how many still deny that this is a very serious disease and needs to be addressed as such? I get that many in the world and in particular in the US are not bright enough to understand the numbers and often believe those with ulterior motives. But in this group it is hard to say people can\'t understand the nature of exponential growth and how rapidly the disease gets out of hand when we stop taking protective measures.

So is this group still populated by so many denialists? Or have people learned from others\' mistakes?

What a bunch of people are forgetting is a large part of the reason for
lockdowns, masks, etc. is not to infringe on their liberty, but to keep
hospitals from being overwhelmed by cases.

That is pretty much how it goes - folks either respect the disease and
wear masks and practice social distancing or the health care system
breaks down in their area...

John

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 1:14:13 PM UTC+11, John Robertson wrote:

On 2020/11/28 5:59 p.m., Rick C wrote:
I recall how 9 months ago many were in pretty much complete denial of the seriousness of this disease. Predictions included forecasts of a quarter million US deaths by the end of this year and we managed to pull that off well ahead of schedule. The number of people maimed by this disease is much higher than that and ever growing at increasing rates.

So how many still deny that this is a very serious disease and needs to be addressed as such? I get that many in the world and in particular in the US are not bright enough to understand the numbers and often believe those with ulterior motives. But in this group it is hard to say people can\'t understand the nature of exponential growth and how rapidly the disease gets out of hand when we stop taking protective measures.

So is this group still populated by so many denialists? Or have people learned from others\' mistakes?

What a bunch of people are forgetting is a large part of the reason for
lockdowns, masks, etc. is not to infringe on their liberty, but to keep
hospitals from being overwhelmed by cases.

That is pretty much how it goes - folks either respect the disease and
wear masks and practice social distancing or the health care system
breaks down in their area...

Places like Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan illustrate the fact that if you take the disease seriously enough - and that does seem to mean vigorous contact tracing and pre-empltive isolation of people who might have got infected for 14 days from the date of the contact with somebody now known to be infectious - you can eliminate it from your community, and deal with new infections coming in from outside - quarantine breakdown - before they infect more than few people.

It makes a mess of your economy for a couple of months, but it save quite a few lives and can let you re-open your economy relatively early. The US and most of Europe is going to need a vaccine before it can do this. It looks as if I\'m going to be able to spend Christmas Day with my brothers extended family - five kids, five partners, about a dozen grand-kids and a bunch of in-laws.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 29/11/20 01:59, Rick C wrote:

I recall how 9 months ago many were in pretty much complete denial of the
seriousness of this disease. Predictions included forecasts of a quarter
million US deaths by the end of this year and we managed to pull that off
well ahead of schedule. The number of people maimed by this disease is much
higher than that and ever growing at increasing rates.

So how many still deny that this is a very serious disease and needs to be
addressed as such? I get that many in the world and in particular in the US
are not bright enough to understand the numbers and often believe those with
ulterior motives. But in this group it is hard to say people can\'t
understand the nature of exponential growth and how rapidly the disease gets
out of hand when we stop taking protective measures.

So is this group still populated by so many denialists? Or have people
learned from others\' mistakes?

Predictions... The denialists will
- deny their denial
- find (more or less spurious) reasons why their opinion wasn\'t wrong

 

[TTman]

Predictions... The denialists will
 - deny their denial
 - find (more or less spurious) reasons why their opinion wasn\'t wrong

Hpefully they will all dies from self infection and not pass it on to
too many people.

--
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 29/11/20 11:16, TTman wrote:

Predictions... The denialists will
  - deny their denial
  - find (more or less spurious) reasons why their opinion wasn\'t wrong


Hpefully they will all dies from self infection and not pass it on to too many
people.

I hope they won\'t infect innocent bystanders.

I wouldn\'t wish that horrible slow death (or worse, long covid)
on anybody.

The \"Typhoid Mary\" experience may be a lesson we have to relearn.

 

[Brent Locher]

On Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 8:59:21 PM UTC-5, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:

I recall how 9 months ago many were in pretty much complete denial of the seriousness of this disease. Predictions included forecasts of a quarter million US deaths by the end of this year and we managed to pull that off well ahead of schedule. The number of people maimed by this disease is much higher than that and ever growing at increasing rates.

So how many still deny that this is a very serious disease and needs to be addressed as such? I get that many in the world and in particular in the US are not bright enough to understand the numbers and often believe those with ulterior motives. But in this group it is hard to say people can\'t understand the nature of exponential growth and how rapidly the disease gets out of hand when we stop taking protective measures.

So is this group still populated by so many denialists? Or have people learned from others\' mistakes?

--
It is not \"denialists\" but rather people that ask whether there should be a public discussion about the tradeoffs between liberty and safety. Whether the government should be allowed to make mandates that destroy businesses that would otherwise be able to survive if people could make their own decisions about going out in public or not.

The grand irony is that there has been a complete shift in attitude within the left......

I remember two of the lefts great battle cries were:
1. keep the government out of my bedroom
2. Its my body.

Logic would dictate that those who chanted those things in the past would be the ones saying
1. I will invite over to my house whoever I want
2. Its my body and I will wear I mask if I feel like it.

But alas, we live in a world where everything is twisted.

As I understand, in Finland the government cannot mandate the wearing of masks by anyone , even in stores and on public transportation. The Finns have recognized that there are certain lines that , if crossed, will lead to a tryranny that is just too great.

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[legg]

On Sat, 28 Nov 2020 17:59:15 -0800 (PST), Rick C
<gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

I recall how 9 months ago many were in pretty much complete denial of the seriousness of this disease. Predictions included forecasts of a quarter million US deaths by the end of this year and we managed to pull that off well ahead of schedule. The number of people maimed by this disease is much higher than that and ever growing at increasing rates.

So how many still deny that this is a very serious disease and needs to be addressed as such? I get that many in the world and in particular in the US are not bright enough to understand the numbers and often believe those with ulterior motives. But in this group it is hard to say people can\'t understand the nature of exponential growth and how rapidly the disease gets out of hand when we stop taking protective measures.

So is this group still populated by so many denialists? Or have people learned from others\' mistakes?

The activities of The Church of God near Aylmer, ON and Steinbach, MB,
seem to beg the practicality of a rural/municipal quarantine.

I wonder what they\'d think of that w/r to their personal rights?

40% test positive in both areas . . . .

If they just wouldn\'t travel into town to demonstrate, it might
be over there, locally, quite quickly.

The three Ss don\'t work, if it\'s Grandma that\'s getting shot and
shovelled, and if they don\'t shut up about it, before AND after.

RL

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 29/11/20 12:55, Brent Locher wrote:
> It is not \"denialists\" but rather people that ask whether there should be a public discussion about the tradeoffs between liberty and safety.

I am very happy to tradeoff my liberty for your safety.
Are you happy with that tradeoff?

 

[Brent Locher]

On Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 8:43:40 AM UTC-5, Tom Gardner wrote:

On 29/11/20 12:55, Brent Locher wrote:
It is not \"denialists\" but rather people that ask whether there should be a public discussion about the tradeoffs between liberty and safety.
I am very happy to tradeoff my liberty for your safety.
Are you happy with that tradeoff?

In other words, you are willing to restrict your own liberty at your own discretion and are OK with others restricting their liberty at their own discretion? I think we are on the same page. By all means, if you are living in sheer terror over catching Corona -virus then stay home.....I will not compel you to go out whether it is because you fear catching it or if your fear spreading it.....by all mean stay home!

 

[Tom Gardner]

On 29/11/20 15:01, Brent Locher wrote:

On Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 8:43:40 AM UTC-5, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 29/11/20 12:55, Brent Locher wrote:
It is not \"denialists\" but rather people that ask whether there should be
a public discussion about the tradeoffs between liberty and safety.
I am very happy to tradeoff my liberty for your safety. Are you happy with
that tradeoff?

In other words, you are willing to restrict your own liberty at your own
discretion and are OK with others restricting their liberty at their own
discretion? I think we are on the same page.

I agree with that strawman proposition.

Now, how about the question I asked: my putting you in danger?

By all means, if you are
living in sheer terror over catching Corona -virus then stay home.....I will
not compel you to go out whether it is because you fear catching it or if
your fear spreading it.....by all mean stay home!

More strawman points.

I\'m not living in terror of it, despite having many of the
indicators for a poor prognosis if I catch it (male, age,
A Rh+ blood, taking ACE inhibitors).

But if my mother catches it, she will almost certainly die
of it.

I\'m not happy that other people don\'t give a shit about that.

Now, back to the question of whether it is acceptable that
I discharge a gun in your direction and claim that I am
asserting my liberty or somesuch nonsense. Would that be
acceptable to you?

 

[John Larkin]

On Sun, 29 Nov 2020 04:55:25 -0800 (PST), Brent Locher
<blocher@columbus.rr.com> wrote:

On Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 8:59:21 PM UTC-5, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
I recall how 9 months ago many were in pretty much complete denial of the seriousness of this disease. Predictions included forecasts of a quarter million US deaths by the end of this year and we managed to pull that off well ahead of schedule. The number of people maimed by this disease is much higher than that and ever growing at increasing rates.

So how many still deny that this is a very serious disease and needs to be addressed as such? I get that many in the world and in particular in the US are not bright enough to understand the numbers and often believe those with ulterior motives. But in this group it is hard to say people can\'t understand the nature of exponential growth and how rapidly the disease gets out of hand when we stop taking protective measures.

So is this group still populated by so many denialists? Or have people learned from others\' mistakes?

--
It is not \"denialists\" but rather people that ask whether there should be a public discussion about the tradeoffs between liberty and safety. Whether the government should be allowed to make mandates that destroy businesses that would otherwise be able to survive if people could make their own decisions about going out in public or not.


The grand irony is that there has been a complete shift in attitude within the left......

I remember two of the lefts great battle cries were:
1. keep the government out of my bedroom
2. Its my body.

Logic would dictate that those who chanted those things in the past would be the ones saying
1. I will invite over to my house whoever I want
2. Its my body and I will wear I mask if I feel like it.

But alas, we live in a world where everything is twisted.

As I understand, in Finland the government cannot mandate the wearing of masks by anyone , even in stores and on public transportation. The Finns have recognized that there are certain lines that , if crossed, will lead to a tryranny that is just too great.

Finland is #107 on the list of per-capita deaths, at 71 PPM. Belguim
is #1, at 1418. Do people wear masks in Belguim?

Sweden is #24, 660, masking voluntary.

San Francisco is a very dense city with an anamolously low (for the
USA) covid death rate, about 180 PPM. Maybe a third of people walking
outdoors don\'t mask.

The dynamics of this infection may not be much affected by masking.
Most european countries are just getting over a gigantic second
infection pulse, which have generally been shorter in time and less
deadly that the first one. Belguim\'s second case rate peaked at over
14x the first one, and it\'s likely that mask wearing was more common
during the second peak.

Maybe there are some other effects than masking.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc trk

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
\"Bunter\", he said, \"I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason\"

 

[David Brown]

On 29/11/2020 13:55, Brent Locher wrote:

On Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 8:59:21 PM UTC-5, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
I recall how 9 months ago many were in pretty much complete denial of the seriousness of this disease. Predictions included forecasts of a quarter million US deaths by the end of this year and we managed to pull that off well ahead of schedule. The number of people maimed by this disease is much higher than that and ever growing at increasing rates.

So how many still deny that this is a very serious disease and needs to be addressed as such? I get that many in the world and in particular in the US are not bright enough to understand the numbers and often believe those with ulterior motives. But in this group it is hard to say people can\'t understand the nature of exponential growth and how rapidly the disease gets out of hand when we stop taking protective measures.

So is this group still populated by so many denialists? Or have people learned from others\' mistakes?

--
It is not \"denialists\" but rather people that ask whether there should be a public discussion about the tradeoffs between liberty and safety. Whether the government should be allowed to make mandates that destroy businesses that would otherwise be able to survive if people could make their own decisions about going out in public or not.

Of course the government should be making those kinds of decisions! But
it should be a government that takes advice from the best available
scientific and medical understanding, combined with the best available
social and economic understandings. (None of this information will be
perfect - predictions are hard, especially about the future.)
Unfortunately for countries like the USA and the UK, you are led by
half-wits who think they are geniuses.

You shouldn\'t be leaving these decisions up to the average man in the
street, or the average business owner, or other non-experts. Most
people simply do not know enough here to get the right balance, and most
people are too biased and concerned with their own immediate concerns.

The whole point of a democratic system is that you elect leaders to make
the difficult decisions for you - not so that you can try to make them
yourself! You /expect/ the government to make the hard and unpopular
decisions - ranging from taxes to conscripting people into the army.
And somewhere in the middle is closing or limiting society to prevent
the spread of a disease.

There are only two rational strategies to an epidemic. One is to ignore
it - accept that lots of people will suffer or die, and hope that it
won\'t be /too/ bad but will burn through the country quickly. (This
turns out to be a really bad strategy for Covid, but it was a rational
gamble early on. The UK and Sweden tried this for a bit.)

The other is to close down everything you need to and test thoroughly,
in order to stop the spread, stamp out pockets of the disease as fast as
possible, and block infected people coming in from abroad. South-east
Asia is mostly following this, and it is working well.

The second worst idea is to try to get a balance letting it spread a bit
but not too much. This is what most western countries have been doing,
resulting in lots of deaths and long-term effects, combined with the
economic and social damage of long-term restrictions lasting a year
instead of a month, unpredictable waves of the disease, and predictable
resentment from the population.

The worst idea of all is to combine a weak attempt at such a balance
with a total lack of control and consistency, by feeding the population
a continuous stream of bullshit. When people believe what they want to
believe, the government of the country has failed.

The grand irony is that there has been a complete shift in attitude within the left......

I remember two of the lefts great battle cries were:
1. keep the government out of my bedroom
2. Its my body.

Those are two \"battle cries\", but they are far from the only aims of
social democratic politicians.

Logic would dictate that those who chanted those things in the past would be the ones saying

No, there is no logic in this at all.

> 1. I will invite over to my house whoever I want

As long as everything is safe and legal, that\'s fine. But \"the left\"
(to the extent that there actually is a single unified \"left\" with a
single opinion) is quite happen for there to be appropriate
restrictions. For example, they are quite happy to accept that hiding
known felons from the police by \"inviting them into my house\" is not okay.

2. Its my body and I will wear I mask if I feel like it.

This shows how disconnected the right-wing \"I\'ll do what /I/ want\"
supports are from reality. You don\'t wear a mask for yourself - you
wear it for other people. Roughly speaking, left-wing means being
willing to contribute or even suffer yourself for the good of society
and other people - while right-wing means putting yourself and your own
family first. So left-wing supporters are going to be more willing to
suffer the inconvenience of a mask for the benefit of others.
Right-wingers are more likely to disregard the concerns of other people.
(And especially in the USA, they are more likely to misunderstand the
situation completely and think that wearing masks is for their own
benefit, and therefore only they suffer if they drop the mask.)


For the most part, you have the right to do what you want with your own
body, and take the risks you want with it. But you /don\'t/ have that
right when it affects other people. You don\'t have the right to risk
getting an infectious disease yourself if it means a significant risk of
passing it on to others. You don\'t have the right to risk
hospitalisation yourself if it means others might not get the hospital
care they need due to lack of space.

But alas, we live in a world where everything is twisted.

As I understand, in Finland the government cannot mandate the wearing of masks by anyone , even in stores and on public transportation. The Finns have recognized that there are certain lines that , if crossed, will lead to a tryranny that is just too great.

Finland doesn\'t need to mandate the wearing of masks. It has little
Covid because the government there has taken it seriously, taken
appropriate and consistent action, and kept people informed. Where
masks are appropriate - such as on public transport in cities or places
where you can\'t keep a distance from others - they government in Finland
doesn\'t need to mandate it. It is enough to tell people that it is
strongly recommended, and the solid majority of people believe their
government and follow the advice.

That\'s the advantage of having a government that works well with its
people, and tries to unite them - there is mutual trust between the
state and the people. (Not perfect or complete, or always justified, of
course, but still strong.)

 

[John Larkin]

On Sun, 29 Nov 2020 07:01:50 -0800 (PST), Brent Locher
<blocher@columbus.rr.com> wrote:

On Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 8:43:40 AM UTC-5, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 29/11/20 12:55, Brent Locher wrote:
It is not \"denialists\" but rather people that ask whether there should be a public discussion about the tradeoffs between liberty and safety.
I am very happy to tradeoff my liberty for your safety.
Are you happy with that tradeoff?

In other words, you are willing to restrict your own liberty at your own discretion and are OK with others restricting their liberty at their own discretion? I think we are on the same page. By all means, if you are living in sheer terror over catching Corona -virus then stay home.....I will not compel you to go out whether it is because you fear catching it or if your fear spreading it.....by all mean stay home!

There is a lot of sheer terror going around. It\'s contageous.

Rational assessment of risk, not so much.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc trk

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
\"Bunter\", he said, \"I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason\"

 

[legg]

On Sun, 29 Nov 2020 08:06:50 -0800, John Larkin
<jjlarkin@highlandtechnology.com> wrote:

On Sun, 29 Nov 2020 04:55:25 -0800 (PST), Brent Locher
blocher@columbus.rr.com> wrote:

On Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 8:59:21 PM UTC-5, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
I recall how 9 months ago many were in pretty much complete denial of the seriousness of this disease. Predictions included forecasts of a quarter million US deaths by the end of this year and we managed to pull that off well ahead of schedule. The number of people maimed by this disease is much higher than that and ever growing at increasing rates.

So how many still deny that this is a very serious disease and needs to be addressed as such? I get that many in the world and in particular in the US are not bright enough to understand the numbers and often believe those with ulterior motives. But in this group it is hard to say people can\'t understand the nature of exponential growth and how rapidly the disease gets out of hand when we stop taking protective measures.

So is this group still populated by so many denialists? Or have people learned from others\' mistakes?

--
It is not \"denialists\" but rather people that ask whether there should be a public discussion about the tradeoffs between liberty and safety. Whether the government should be allowed to make mandates that destroy businesses that would otherwise be able to survive if people could make their own decisions about going out in public or not.


The grand irony is that there has been a complete shift in attitude within the left......

I remember two of the lefts great battle cries were:
1. keep the government out of my bedroom
2. Its my body.

Logic would dictate that those who chanted those things in the past would be the ones saying
1. I will invite over to my house whoever I want
2. Its my body and I will wear I mask if I feel like it.

But alas, we live in a world where everything is twisted.

As I understand, in Finland the government cannot mandate the wearing of masks by anyone , even in stores and on public transportation. The Finns have recognized that there are certain lines that , if crossed, will lead to a tryranny that is just too great.




Finland is #107 on the list of per-capita deaths, at 71 PPM. Belguim
is #1, at 1418. Do people wear masks in Belguim?

Sweden is #24, 660, masking voluntary.

San Francisco is a very dense city with an anamolously low (for the
USA) covid death rate, about 180 PPM. Maybe a third of people walking
outdoors don\'t mask.

The dynamics of this infection may not be much affected by masking.
Most european countries are just getting over a gigantic second
infection pulse, which have generally been shorter in time and less
deadly that the first one. Belguim\'s second case rate peaked at over
14x the first one, and it\'s likely that mask wearing was more common
during the second peak.

Maybe there are some other effects than masking.

Nobody\'s suggesting that wearing masks outdoors is necessary.
In groups, in shops, anyplace that contact clearance isn\'t
maintained.

Hand washing is probably easier to forget, or to misunderstand
and mismanage.

Belgium was notoriously slow on uptake of public safety measures.

In places where contact tracing is still possible, you can get
some idea of where contacts are occurring. Take Halifax as an
example - they are in the relatively unscathed \'Atlantic Bubble\',
even into the fall season:

https://tiny.cc/uak5tz

Those are real contact advisories, in the current climate,
where restrictions on certain business activities are only
just being implimented. Guess which businesses get first
attention?

Above 100ppm/day, few areas can maintain effective contact tracing
capability. It just runs away and gets into residential and
long term nursing homes.

RL

 

[John Larkin]

On Sun, 29 Nov 2020 17:26:42 +0100, David Brown
<david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

When people believe what they want to
believe, the government of the country has failed.

Wow. I thought the exact opposite.


--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc trk

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
\"Bunter\", he said, \"I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason\"

 

[David Brown]

On 29/11/2020 17:06, John Larkin wrote:

On Sun, 29 Nov 2020 04:55:25 -0800 (PST), Brent Locher
blocher@columbus.rr.com> wrote:

On Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 8:59:21 PM UTC-5, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
I recall how 9 months ago many were in pretty much complete denial of the seriousness of this disease. Predictions included forecasts of a quarter million US deaths by the end of this year and we managed to pull that off well ahead of schedule. The number of people maimed by this disease is much higher than that and ever growing at increasing rates.

So how many still deny that this is a very serious disease and needs to be addressed as such? I get that many in the world and in particular in the US are not bright enough to understand the numbers and often believe those with ulterior motives. But in this group it is hard to say people can\'t understand the nature of exponential growth and how rapidly the disease gets out of hand when we stop taking protective measures.

So is this group still populated by so many denialists? Or have people learned from others\' mistakes?

--
It is not \"denialists\" but rather people that ask whether there should be a public discussion about the tradeoffs between liberty and safety. Whether the government should be allowed to make mandates that destroy businesses that would otherwise be able to survive if people could make their own decisions about going out in public or not.


The grand irony is that there has been a complete shift in attitude within the left......

I remember two of the lefts great battle cries were:
1. keep the government out of my bedroom
2. Its my body.

Logic would dictate that those who chanted those things in the past would be the ones saying
1. I will invite over to my house whoever I want
2. Its my body and I will wear I mask if I feel like it.

But alas, we live in a world where everything is twisted.

As I understand, in Finland the government cannot mandate the wearing of masks by anyone , even in stores and on public transportation. The Finns have recognized that there are certain lines that , if crossed, will lead to a tryranny that is just too great.




Finland is #107 on the list of per-capita deaths, at 71 PPM. Belguim
is #1, at 1418. Do people wear masks in Belguim?

It\'s worth noting that the country of Belgium is almost entirely
high-density urban area, so they\'ll spread it faster as people are close
together. They are a highly international country with huge amounts of
travel and connection to other countries. And they also count Covid
deaths differently from most countries - any death that could possibly
be influenced by Covid is counted as a Covid death, even if the person
never even had a test for it. (Don\'t ask me why.) That said, they are
still doing a rotten job at dealing with it.

> Sweden is #24, 660, masking voluntary.

Sweden has been using a completely hopeless strategy, and are only now
beginning to turn around and start doing something sensible. They have
suffered massively more than Norway, both in terms of people who have
died or been sick, and in terms of social and economic costs. (Norway
and Finland would have been almost Covid-free if we didn\'t have Sweden
in the middle.)

San Francisco is a very dense city with an anamolously low (for the
USA) covid death rate, about 180 PPM. Maybe a third of people walking
outdoors don\'t mask.

Masks aren\'t necessary if you can keep your distance. (Not that I know
much about San Francisco - it was a general statement.)

> The dynamics of this infection may not be much affected by masking.

The details are hard to tell - there is no good way of determining them
in an ethical way and without long-term studies, which take time. And
the effect of masks varies according to the behaviour of the people
wearing them - such as if they wear them correctly, or how they would
act if they were not wearing them.

But the big psychological effect of wearing masks is that it keeps the
epidemic in people\'s minds. If seeing people wearing masks reminds you
to keep your distance, then they are indirectly a big help regardless of
how much they limit droplets.

Most european countries are just getting over a gigantic second
infection pulse, which have generally been shorter in time and less
deadly that the first one. Belguim\'s second case rate peaked at over
14x the first one, and it\'s likely that mask wearing was more common
during the second peak.

Maybe there are some other effects than masking.

There are lots of factors that affect things.

 

[John Larkin]

On Sun, 29 Nov 2020 17:38:05 +0100, David Brown
<david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 29/11/2020 17:06, John Larkin wrote:
On Sun, 29 Nov 2020 04:55:25 -0800 (PST), Brent Locher
blocher@columbus.rr.com> wrote:

On Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 8:59:21 PM UTC-5, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
I recall how 9 months ago many were in pretty much complete denial of the seriousness of this disease. Predictions included forecasts of a quarter million US deaths by the end of this year and we managed to pull that off well ahead of schedule. The number of people maimed by this disease is much higher than that and ever growing at increasing rates.

So how many still deny that this is a very serious disease and needs to be addressed as such? I get that many in the world and in particular in the US are not bright enough to understand the numbers and often believe those with ulterior motives. But in this group it is hard to say people can\'t understand the nature of exponential growth and how rapidly the disease gets out of hand when we stop taking protective measures.

So is this group still populated by so many denialists? Or have people learned from others\' mistakes?

--
It is not \"denialists\" but rather people that ask whether there should be a public discussion about the tradeoffs between liberty and safety. Whether the government should be allowed to make mandates that destroy businesses that would otherwise be able to survive if people could make their own decisions about going out in public or not.


The grand irony is that there has been a complete shift in attitude within the left......

I remember two of the lefts great battle cries were:
1. keep the government out of my bedroom
2. Its my body.

Logic would dictate that those who chanted those things in the past would be the ones saying
1. I will invite over to my house whoever I want
2. Its my body and I will wear I mask if I feel like it.

But alas, we live in a world where everything is twisted.

As I understand, in Finland the government cannot mandate the wearing of masks by anyone , even in stores and on public transportation. The Finns have recognized that there are certain lines that , if crossed, will lead to a tryranny that is just too great.




Finland is #107 on the list of per-capita deaths, at 71 PPM. Belguim
is #1, at 1418. Do people wear masks in Belguim?


It\'s worth noting that the country of Belgium is almost entirely
high-density urban area, so they\'ll spread it faster as people are close
together. They are a highly international country with huge amounts of
travel and connection to other countries. And they also count Covid
deaths differently from most countries - any death that could possibly
be influenced by Covid is counted as a Covid death, even if the person
never even had a test for it. (Don\'t ask me why.) That said, they are
still doing a rotten job at dealing with it.

Sweden is #24, 660, masking voluntary.

Sweden has been using a completely hopeless strategy, and are only now
beginning to turn around and start doing something sensible. They have
suffered massively more than Norway, both in terms of people who have
died or been sick, and in terms of social and economic costs. (Norway
and Finland would have been almost Covid-free if we didn\'t have Sweden
in the middle.)


San Francisco is a very dense city with an anamolously low (for the
USA) covid death rate, about 180 PPM. Maybe a third of people walking
outdoors don\'t mask.


Masks aren\'t necessary if you can keep your distance. (Not that I know
much about San Francisco - it was a general statement.)

The dynamics of this infection may not be much affected by masking.

The details are hard to tell - there is no good way of determining them
in an ethical way and without long-term studies, which take time. And
the effect of masks varies according to the behaviour of the people
wearing them - such as if they wear them correctly, or how they would
act if they were not wearing them.

But the big psychological effect of wearing masks is that it keeps the
epidemic in people\'s minds. If seeing people wearing masks reminds you
to keep your distance, then they are indirectly a big help regardless of
how much they limit droplets.

Most european countries are just getting over a gigantic second
infection pulse, which have generally been shorter in time and less
deadly that the first one. Belguim\'s second case rate peaked at over
14x the first one, and it\'s likely that mask wearing was more common
during the second peak.

Maybe there are some other effects than masking.


There are lots of factors that affect things.

What surprises me, this late in the epidemic, is how little other
effects (ie, non-social-behavior effects) have been studied and appear
in the press, even as simple correlations. All we hear is masks,
masks, masks.

San Francisco is usually windy. It would be interesting to correlate
wind velocity to infection rate.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc trk

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
\"Bunter\", he said, \"I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason\"

 

[David Brown]

On 29/11/2020 18:09, John Larkin wrote:

On Sun, 29 Nov 2020 17:38:05 +0100, David Brown
david.brown@hesbynett.no> wrote:

On 29/11/2020 17:06, John Larkin wrote:

Maybe there are some other effects than masking.


There are lots of factors that affect things.


What surprises me, this late in the epidemic, is how little other
effects (ie, non-social-behavior effects) have been studied and appear
in the press, even as simple correlations. All we hear is masks,
masks, masks.

San Francisco is usually windy. It would be interesting to correlate
wind velocity to infection rate.

Possibly.

The challenge here is that there are a huge number of potential factors,
and it is extremely difficult to separate out effects. Correlations are
/not/ helpful - most are going to give completely wrong ideas. You
could, to pick a somewhat silly example, try to correlate starch foods
(rice, potatoes, pasta, etc.) with Covid deaths. Then you\'d find that
if you eat lots of boiled potatoes you have a higher chance of dying of
Covid. Is that in any way useful - or is it just that old-folks\' homes
serve more boiled potatoes and pasta or rice?

Most of the published work on Covid has concentrated on things where we
can reasonably expect an effect - such as distancing. But good studies
are hard to do. How do you do controlled studies of social distancing?
How do you do placebo tests and double-blind studies with masks?

There certainly /are/ other studies going on. Scientists are careful
about publishing, however - there is too much of a tendency for media to
blow things out of proportion. In science, when someone does a study
that seems to indicate that - say - eating lots of garlic lowers your
risk of getting Covid, then they would /like/ to publish their
preliminary findings. The aim is that other scientists would try to
replicate or disprove the results with bigger samples, and in the end
we\'d hopefully know one way or the other. But you can be sure that some
media would grab it, misunderstand it, and publish it as a scoop. Then
some idiot wannabe-dictator would recommend it as an alternative to
fish-tank cleaner. And by the time the real value of garlic is
understood, half of the USA are eating a dozen bulbs a day, and the
other half think its all a conspiracy started by communist and/or KKK
garlic farmers.

(Personally, I think eating lots of garlic is a good idea. It helps
enforce social distancing.)

 

[Jim Jackson]

What surprises me, this late in the epidemic, is how little other
effects (ie, non-social-behavior effects) have been studied and appear
in the press, even as simple correlations. All we hear is masks,
masks, masks.

Maybe all you hear about - but social distancing, washing hands, wiping down
are all pushed here (UK) as well as mask wearing.

Maybe you are just worked up about masks?