J
John Larkin
Guest
On Sat, 22 May 2010 04:45:06 -0700 (PDT), Bill Sloman
<bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:
pressures interfere with sleeping and skiing.
You are equally skilled at not doing simple electronics and not doing
complex systems.
John
<bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:
I've done systems work. Lots of it. The economics stink, and the timeOn May 22, 1:41 am, dagmargoodb...@yahoo.com wrote:
On May 21, 5:06 pm, John Larkin
jjlar...@highNOTlandTHIStechnologyPART.com> wrote:
On Fri, 21 May 2010 14:34:17 -0700 (PDT),Bill Sloman
bill.slo...@ieee.org> wrote:
The facts of the case are that you don't like developing complete
systems, bcause it takes too long and ties up too much capital and
engineering effort, and you've found yourself a niche where you can
develop useful sub-systems, some of which you can sell to several
customers.
Yes. Engineering is too valuable to sell once. Production can sell
copies of engineering for decades.
Your customers would probably be happier if you took on turn-key
development contracts, but that kind of big chunk of development takes
skills that you don't seem to have - perhaps wisely.
Big projects that go wrong regularly destroy the businesses that took
them on.
I have been in the systems business, and now that I have my own
company I never want to do it again.
Me too. But we're wrong John. Bill says we should do systems,
Actually I said that John might be wise to keep out of a risky area.
Since he doesn't like developing large complex systems, perhaps
because he isn't good at it, this is merely endorsing his preference.
pressures interfere with sleeping and skiing.
You are equally skilled at not doing simple electronics and not doing
complex systems.
He does stuff. You don't.and
Bill *knows* business. Massive investment that pays off zero-to-one
times is better and less risky
It can be a lot more profitable - the margins on turn-key projects can
be very high - and I never claimed that it wasn't risky.
than modest investment that pays 100x.
John Larkin made it perfectly clear that his less ambitious projects
don't always lead to successful products. A one hundred-fold return on
development investment would be remarkably high. A successful and long-
lived product might make it, but probably not if you discounted your
cash-flows correctly. And how many products do you have to develop
before you find one that is popular enough to sell persistently and in
volume, without attracting the attention of the larger-small
manufacturers in the area, who can afford to develop an ASIC to handle
most of the electronic function to let them sell something that does
the same job a lot cheaper.
But James Arthur "knows" business - with the same sort of confidence
with which he "knows" economics - and this sort of consideration
passes him by.
John