M
Martin Brown
Guest
On 19/03/2020 15:23, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
In Iran it is obvious why - their government denied there was a problem
in much the same way as Trump did. Failure to monitor and control it at
the outset gets you to a point where the infection reaches a sustained
exponential growth that cannot be sensibly contained.
This is much less racially prejudiced interpretation of why Italy was so
badly affected (which also includes some bad luck). Northern Italy poor
air quality and aged population may have made the infection much worse.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/why-italy-was-hit-so-hard-and-so-fast-by-covid-19-1.5498650
Flow of people to and from a hot spot is the vector but intercontinental
travel is relatively expensive in China. The initial cases in the UK
were mostly rich Chinese tourists and students. In Milan I expect they
were mainly executives who run clothing manufacture in China for the
fashion industry who first brought the virus into Italy. They are in and
out of both countries regularly. Italian health monitoring was not on
the ball and the virus got well established in the population.
Closing the borders between countries with very similar levels of
infection is virtually pointless. It does make sense to firewall the
places that have eliminated it like New Zealand and Singapore.
Population demographics, poor air quality and a direct connection to one
of the original hotspots in China. Same reason that London, Tokyo and LA
are also badly exposed. The medical systems also vary with country.
It does grow exponentially if you don't test and isolate all contacts.
UK held it down to under a dozen active cases almost all of whom caught
it abroad until the beginning of March but then one slipped under the
radar and community transmission began. They gave up on contact tracing
a week or so ago (which may have been a mistake).
The problem for infection control are the asymptomatic carriers (about
50% of those infected) and the ones who still go to work when poorly.
--
Regards,
Martin Brown
In Iran it is obvious why - their government denied there was a problem
in much the same way as Trump did. Failure to monitor and control it at
the outset gets you to a point where the infection reaches a sustained
exponential growth that cannot be sensibly contained.
This is much less racially prejudiced interpretation of why Italy was so
badly affected (which also includes some bad luck). Northern Italy poor
air quality and aged population may have made the infection much worse.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/why-italy-was-hit-so-hard-and-so-fast-by-covid-19-1.5498650
Flow of people to and from a hot spot is the vector but intercontinental
travel is relatively expensive in China. The initial cases in the UK
were mostly rich Chinese tourists and students. In Milan I expect they
were mainly executives who run clothing manufacture in China for the
fashion industry who first brought the virus into Italy. They are in and
out of both countries regularly. Italian health monitoring was not on
the ball and the virus got well established in the population.
Closing the borders between countries with very similar levels of
infection is virtually pointless. It does make sense to firewall the
places that have eliminated it like New Zealand and Singapore.
Population demographics, poor air quality and a direct connection to one
of the original hotspots in China. Same reason that London, Tokyo and LA
are also badly exposed. The medical systems also vary with country.
It does grow exponentially if you don't test and isolate all contacts.
UK held it down to under a dozen active cases almost all of whom caught
it abroad until the beginning of March but then one slipped under the
radar and community transmission began. They gave up on contact tracing
a week or so ago (which may have been a mistake).
The problem for infection control are the asymptomatic carriers (about
50% of those infected) and the ones who still go to work when poorly.
--
Regards,
Martin Brown