China to target near-Earth object 2020 PN1 for asteroid deflection mission...

[Fred Bloggs]

Watch out! There\'s no telling what these idiots will end up doing. They could deflect the orbit enough for a later collision.

https://spacenews.com/china-to-target-near-earth-object-2020-pn1-for-asteroid-deflection-mission/

 

[Anthony William Sloman]

On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 2:02:27 AM UTC+11, Fred Bloggs wrote:

Watch out! There\'s no telling what these idiots will end up doing. They could deflect the orbit enough for a later collision.

https://spacenews.com/china-to-target-near-earth-object-2020-pn1-for-asteroid-deflection-mission/

It\'s unlikely that they would get it wrong, and very unlikely that they\'d have enough effect to bring on a later collision - or at least not in the next million years. After that the solar system is chaotic, and not all that predictable, so not worth worrying about.

Of course if we last - as a species - and sustain a technological society for the next million years, we\'ll be keeping an eye on it and by then should have the earth-crossing asteroids pretty well monitored.

The prospect of us lasting as a single species for all that time is pretty remote. The cooperating social mammal life-style seems to offer a lot of possibilities, and we may well split into non-interbreeding groups that exploit different variations on the current approach. The one\'s that don\'t nicely cooperate with one another are unlikely to last - it starting to look like a pretty small planet already, so joint maintenance is going to be vital. The Putins and the Trumps will have to get selected out pretty quickly.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Fred Bloggs]

On Friday, October 28, 2022 at 11:33:49 AM UTC-4, bill....@ieee.org wrote:

On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 2:02:27 AM UTC+11, Fred Bloggs wrote:
Watch out! There\'s no telling what these idiots will end up doing. They could deflect the orbit enough for a later collision.

https://spacenews.com/china-to-target-near-earth-object-2020-pn1-for-asteroid-deflection-mission/
It\'s unlikely that they would get it wrong, and very unlikely that they\'d have enough effect to bring on a later collision - or at least not in the next million years. After that the solar system is chaotic, and not all that predictable, so not worth worrying about.

It\'s very likely they will get it wrong. And where are you getting this million year stuff? This asteroid has a period of one year.

https://www.spacereference.org/asteroid/2020-pn1

And there is the possibility of a secondary collision by which I mean they deflect into the path of another near Earth body with which it collides sending one or both and debris in our direction.

Of course if we last - as a species - and sustain a technological society for the next million years, we\'ll be keeping an eye on it and by then should have the earth-crossing asteroids pretty well monitored.

The prospect of us lasting as a single species for all that time is pretty remote. The cooperating social mammal life-style seems to offer a lot of possibilities, and we may well split into non-interbreeding groups that exploit different variations on the current approach. The one\'s that don\'t nicely cooperate with one another are unlikely to last - it starting to look like a pretty small planet already, so joint maintenance is going to be vital. The Putins and the Trumps will have to get selected out pretty quickly.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Anthony William Sloman]

On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 3:34:15 AM UTC+11, Fred Bloggs wrote:

On Friday, October 28, 2022 at 11:33:49 AM UTC-4, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 2:02:27 AM UTC+11, Fred Bloggs wrote:
Watch out! There\'s no telling what these idiots will end up doing. They could deflect the orbit enough for a later collision.

https://spacenews.com/china-to-target-near-earth-object-2020-pn1-for-asteroid-deflection-mission/

It\'s unlikely that they would get it wrong, and very unlikely that they\'d have enough effect to bring on a later collision - or at least not in the next million years. After that the solar system is chaotic, and not all that predictable, so not worth worrying about.

It\'s very likely they will get it wrong.

If they did, the deflector presumably wouldn\'t make it to the asteroid to be deflected, making it even less worth worrying about.

And where are you getting this million year stuff? This asteroid has a period of one year.

https://www.spacereference.org/asteroid/2020-pn1

The asteroids interact with with the rest of the solar system.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.231384098

> And there is the possibility of a secondary collision by which I mean they deflect into the path of another near Earth body with which it collides sending one or both and debris in our direction.

Not very high probability.

<snip>

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[John Larkin]

On Fri, 28 Oct 2022 08:02:22 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
<bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

Watch out! There\'s no telling what these idiots will end up doing. They could deflect the orbit enough for a later collision.

https://spacenews.com/china-to-target-near-earth-object-2020-pn1-for-asteroid-deflection-mission/

Seems like a very expensive demonstration that F = M*A

 

[Anthony William Sloman]

On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 1:44:23 PM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:

On Fri, 28 Oct 2022 08:02:22 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

Watch out! There\'s no telling what these idiots will end up doing. They could deflect the orbit enough for a later collision.

https://spacenews.com/china-to-target-near-earth-object-2020-pn1-for-asteroid-deflection-mission/

Seems like a very expensive demonstration that F = M*A

There are lots of different objects in orbit around the solar system, from lumps of rock to dirty snowballs.

A solid impactor hitting a dirty snowball would come out the other side with most of its momentum intact. so it wouldn\'t apply a lot of force or generate much acceleration.

John Larkin doesn\'t like thinking about what might be going on - it takes the kind of effort he doesn\'t seem to want to put in.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[legg]

On Fri, 28 Oct 2022 08:02:22 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
<bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

Watch out! There\'s no telling what these idiots will end up doing. They could deflect the orbit enough for a later collision.

https://spacenews.com/china-to-target-near-earth-object-2020-pn1-for-asteroid-deflection-mission/

Is this some sort of space race ?

Thought a deflection experiment was in progress - on
the \'how big a hole did it make\' side, now.

Double Asteroid Redirection Test ?

Is China not being copied the data?

RL

 

[Anthony William Sloman]

On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 11:34:49 PM UTC+11, legg wrote:

On Fri, 28 Oct 2022 08:02:22 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
Watch out! There\'s no telling what these idiots will end up doing. They could deflect the orbit enough for a later collision.

https://spacenews.com/china-to-target-near-earth-object-2020-pn1-for-asteroid-deflection-mission/

Is this some sort of space race?

Might be. A nice big asteroid dropping into the earth\'s gravitational field makes a big hole when it hits the ground.

If you can deflect an asteroid away from the earth you could use the same tools to deflect into a bit of the earth that you didn\'t like very much.

> Thought a deflection experiment was in progress - on the \'how big a hole did it make\' side, now.

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-dart-mission-hits-asteroid-in-first-ever-planetary-defense-test

Double Asteroid Redirection Test ?

Is China not being copied the data?

They may not trust the Americans to copy them with all the data. And the Chinese do seem to think that they are better than everybody else, so they might not entirely trust the data that NASA might be giving them. I\'m still not entirely over the nasty shock I got when the very expensive Princeton Applied Research data sampling system we bought (because it was what Siemens had told us they used) turned out not to deliver the 5MHz sampling rate it promise in the spec, but wouldn\'t go faster than 2.4MHz. I swapped in a 74S TTL part and got it up to 2.7MHz, but getting the design right wasn\'t an option.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[John Larkin]

On Sat, 29 Oct 2022 08:35:44 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Fri, 28 Oct 2022 08:02:22 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

Watch out! There\'s no telling what these idiots will end up doing. They could deflect the orbit enough for a later collision.

https://spacenews.com/china-to-target-near-earth-object-2020-pn1-for-asteroid-deflection-mission/

Is this some sort of space race ?

Thought a deflection experiment was in progress - on
the \'how big a hole did it make\' side, now.

Double Asteroid Redirection Test ?

Is China not being copied the data?

RL

It\'s like boots on the moon. National pride, not much science,
gigabucks wasted, certainly no real value.

 

[Fred Bloggs]

On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 8:34:49 AM UTC-4, legg wrote:

On Fri, 28 Oct 2022 08:02:22 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
Watch out! There\'s no telling what these idiots will end up doing. They could deflect the orbit enough for a later collision.

https://spacenews.com/china-to-target-near-earth-object-2020-pn1-for-asteroid-deflection-mission/
Is this some sort of space race ?

Thought a deflection experiment was in progress - on
the \'how big a hole did it make\' side, now.

Double Asteroid Redirection Test ?

Is China not being copied the data?

China wants to be part of the \"me too\" movement of having the capability of saving the Earth from an impending asteroid strike.

The problem I see is that they don\'t know how perilous their asteroid trajectory change is going to be. We can\'t even see most of the asteroids we know are out there, much less measure their orbits. They have no idea if they\'re going to cause an ultimate collision. My understanding is the asteroid belt is fairly stable and the ones that get sent our way are the result of a collision.

RL

 

[Fred Bloggs]

On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 8:34:49 AM UTC-4, legg wrote:

On Fri, 28 Oct 2022 08:02:22 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
Watch out! There\'s no telling what these idiots will end up doing. They could deflect the orbit enough for a later collision.

https://spacenews.com/china-to-target-near-earth-object-2020-pn1-for-asteroid-deflection-mission/
Is this some sort of space race ?

Thought a deflection experiment was in progress - on
the \'how big a hole did it make\' side, now.

When you think about the acronym DART- they mainly wanted to spell the word, dart. The assigned meaning to the letters is a contrivance. Darts are thrown at an object to stick, and that\'s what they want these redirection vehicles to do, they don\'t want them shattering into pieces on impact. They have to slow down the impact vehicle considerably to do that, no small feat.

Double Asteroid Redirection Test ?

Is China not being copied the data?

RL

 

[Dennis]

On 10/29/22 09:40, Fred Bloggs wrote:

When you think about the acronym DART- they mainly wanted to spell the word, dart. The assigned meaning to the letters is a contrivance. Darts are thrown at an object to stick, and that\'s what they want these redirection vehicles to do, they don\'t want them shattering into pieces on impact. They have to slow down the impact vehicle considerably to do that, no small feat.

It is a backronym.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backronym

 

[Robert Latest]

Anthony William Sloman wrote:

John Larkin doesn\'t like thinking about what might be going on - it takes the
kind of effort he doesn\'t seem to want to put in.

As annoyingly uninformed as John Larkin usually is, I think he\'s right about
asteroid deflection tests. People have been doing the most amazing stellar
navigation maths for decades, one would think that a simple change in momentum
should be among the more predictable things.

 

[John Larkin]

On 29 Oct 2022 17:50:57 GMT, Robert Latest <boblatest@yahoo.com>
wrote:

Anthony William Sloman wrote:
John Larkin doesn\'t like thinking about what might be going on - it takes the
kind of effort he doesn\'t seem to want to put in.

As annoyingly uninformed as John Larkin usually is,

The topic here is electronic design. Show us some of yours.


I think he\'s right about

asteroid deflection tests. People have been doing the most amazing stellar
navigation maths for decades, one would think that a simple change in momentum
should be among the more predictable things.

No really dangerous, planet-killing asteroid is going to be deflected
usefully - or measurably - by a minor impact. It will take nukes to
apply enough momentum.

We have lots of nukes.

 

[Fred Bloggs]

On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 11:24:57 AM UTC-4, Dennis wrote:

On 10/29/22 09:40, Fred Bloggs wrote:


When you think about the acronym DART- they mainly wanted to spell the word, dart. The assigned meaning to the letters is a contrivance. Darts are thrown at an object to stick, and that\'s what they want these redirection vehicles to do, they don\'t want them shattering into pieces on impact. They have to slow down the impact vehicle considerably to do that, no small feat.

It is a backronym.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backronym

Thanks- that\'s how most of them are formed. At least this one has applicable meaning when interpreted as a word, which is more than you can say about most of them. Boeing\'s MCAS is a bunch of gibberish from any angle, left to right, right to left, upside down. Should stand for Mostly Crashes And Stalls.

 

[Anthony William Sloman]

On Sunday, October 30, 2022 at 1:25:56 AM UTC+11, Fred Bloggs wrote:

On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 8:34:49 AM UTC-4, legg wrote:
On Fri, 28 Oct 2022 08:02:22 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
Watch out! There\'s no telling what these idiots will end up doing. They could deflect the orbit enough for a later collision.

https://spacenews.com/china-to-target-near-earth-object-2020-pn1-for-asteroid-deflection-mission/
Is this some sort of space race ?

Thought a deflection experiment was in progress - on
the \'how big a hole did it make\' side, now.

Double Asteroid Redirection Test ?

Is China not being copied the data?

China wants to be part of the \"me too\" movement of having the capability of saving the Earth from an impending asteroid strike.

The problem I see is that they don\'t know how perilous their asteroid trajectory change is going to be.

You\'d have to know the current asteroid trajectory to know that, which you do have to know to be able to hit it. They should have a very exact idea.

> We can\'t even see most of the asteroids we know are out there, much less measure their orbits.

We are only interested in asteroids with earth-crossing orbits. They do come close enough to be easily visible, which makes their orbits easy to measure.

>They have no idea if they\'re going to cause an ultimate collision. My understanding is the asteroid belt is fairly stable and the ones that get sent our way are the result of a collision.

They don\'t have to collide with anything to have the kind of gravitational interaction that can change their orbits.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbital_resonance

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Anthony William Sloman]

On Sunday, October 30, 2022 at 5:28:49 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:

On 29 Oct 2022 17:50:57 GMT, Robert Latest <bobl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
Anthony William Sloman wrote:
John Larkin doesn\'t like thinking about what might be going on - it takes the
kind of effort he doesn\'t seem to want to put in.

As annoyingly uninformed as John Larkin usually is.

The topic here is electronic design. Show us some of yours.

John Larkin doesn\'t seem to do electronic design. He can adapt existing electronic circuits to operate in new environments by tiny incremental changes but he relies on pirating other people\'s original designs to get anything game-changing.

> > I think he\'s right about asteroid deflection tests. People have been doing the most amazing stellar navigation maths for decades, one would think that a simple change in momentum should be among the more predictable things.

If you know how much of the impactor\'s momentum is going to get transferred to the asteroid. If the impactor breaks the asteroid into two bits, you don\'t know how its momentum ends up getting distributed between the bits.

> No really dangerous, planet-killing asteroid is going to be deflected usefully - or measurably - by a minor impact.

if you do it early enough, you could change a potential impact into an actual near miss. You can measure very small change in velocity quite accurately if you can point a laser at a corner-cube reflector. There are a couple up on the moon at the moment.

https://tmurphy.physics.ucsd.edu/apollo/lrrr.html

> It will take nukes to apply enough momentum.

Nuclear blasts release energy. Persuading that energy to manifest itself as acceleration in a particular direction might be difficult.

> We have lots of nukes.

To somebody with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[whit3rd]

On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 7:23:10 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:

On Sunday, October 30, 2022 at 5:28:49 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:

No really dangerous, planet-killing asteroid is going to be deflected usefully - or measurably - by a minor impact.

if you do it early enough, you could change a potential impact into an actual near miss. You can measure very small change in velocity quite accurately if you can point a laser at a corner-cube reflector. There are a couple up on the moon at the moment.

https://tmurphy.physics.ucsd.edu/apollo/lrrr.html
It will take nukes to apply enough momentum.

Nuclear blasts release energy. Persuading that energy to manifest itself as acceleration in a particular direction might be difficult.

To get a good momentum boost, just aim a big laser pulse at the offender; ablation will occur,
and your reaction momentum comes from mass of the asteroid, not the delivery package (which,
from a safe distance away, can get in several shots).

 

[Jeroen Belleman]

On 2022-10-30 08:14, whit3rd wrote:

On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 7:23:10 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, October 30, 2022 at 5:28:49 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:


No really dangerous, planet-killing asteroid is going to be deflected usefully - or measurably - by a minor impact.

if you do it early enough, you could change a potential impact into an actual near miss. You can measure very small change in velocity quite accurately if you can point a laser at a corner-cube reflector. There are a couple up on the moon at the moment.

https://tmurphy.physics.ucsd.edu/apollo/lrrr.html
It will take nukes to apply enough momentum.

Nuclear blasts release energy. Persuading that energy to manifest itself as acceleration in a particular direction might be difficult.

To get a good momentum boost, just aim a big laser pulse at the offender; ablation will occur,
and your reaction momentum comes from mass of the asteroid, not the delivery package (which,
from a safe distance away, can get in several shots).

Currently feasible lasers are toys compared to what would be
needed to get an effect. \"Just aim a big laser pulse\", indeed.

Jeroen Belleman

 

[Martin Brown]

On 29/10/2022 10:59, Anthony William Sloman wrote:

On Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 1:44:23 PM UTC+11, John Larkin
wrote:
On Fri, 28 Oct 2022 08:02:22 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

Watch out! There\'s no telling what these idiots will end up
doing. They could deflect the orbit enough for a later
collision.

https://spacenews.com/china-to-target-near-earth-object-2020-pn1-for-asteroid-deflection-mission/



Seems like a very expensive demonstration that F = M*A

There are lots of different objects in orbit around the solar system,
from lumps of rock to dirty snowballs.

A solid impactor hitting a dirty snowball would come out the other
side with most of its momentum intact. so it wouldn\'t apply a lot of
force or generate much acceleration.

At hypersonic speeds it will generate a powerful shockwave in the dirty
snowball which will almost certainly fragment it into component parts.
The same would apply if it was an ice bound conglomerate of rubble.

Might be a way to turn a former NEO into a new meteor stream.

John Larkin doesn\'t like thinking about what might be going on - it
takes the kind of effort he doesn\'t seem to want to put in.

Doing the intercept autonomously is quite a challenge so they are using
it to demonstrate their capabilities rather than anything else.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown