Australians set to waste money on batteries

On Mon, 25 May 2015 00:30:18 +1000, Gordon Levi wrote:


Hopefully, we are all set to "waste money" on minimising Anthropogenic
Global Warming! Households that are installing battery backed solar or
wind are doing their best to lower their own carbon footprint.

You do that with the old deep cycle lead acid battery that is highly
recoverable. Not new yet to be proven, high tech devices.

>
 
On 22/5/2015 2:24 PM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 22/05/2015 12:12 PM, Sylvia Else wrote:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-21/powerwall-solar-batteries-to-transform-electricity-industry/6488230



http://www.teslamotors.com/en_AU/powerwall

At $5500 (is that including GST?) for a 7kWh model, with a ten year
life, and allowing for interest, that comes in at about 28 cents per
kWh, and that's before the cost of the solar panels and the inverter
(not included with the battery), and installation, is included. It's
also based on the questionable (i.e. certainly false) assumption that
they can be recharged from solar everyday. The reality is that they
won't be, and the cost per kWh will be accordingly higher.

The limit of 2kW continuous and 3.3kW peak should also be noted. It
isn't clear how long one can draw 3.3kW for, but 2kW is less than is
required to run an ordinary domestic kettle. A typical household might
have trouble using the entire capacity, pushing up the effective cost
per kWh.

The good thing about these is that they may finally force a change to
the way electricity is charged for, with much greater emphasis placed on
the cost of making it available versus the cost of supplying it when
it's required. People who treat the grid as a backup will then pay
something closer to the true cost of using it that way.

Either way, I'll have to look at that the economics of charging these on
overnight off-peak power (generated by coal fired power stations) for
use during the evening peak when the much more expensive power would
otherwise be generated using less polluting natural gas, or even hydro.

Sylvia.


**A couple of points and questions:

* How do you arrive at 28c/kWh? Please show your calculations.
* A 7kWh model is way too small for most households, except for
emergency situations.
* Li-Ion batteries are close to being wiped out by new developments in
aluminium battery technology. Such technology is likely to be:

* Significantly cheaper.
* Capable of many more charge/discharge cycles.
* Much safer.
* Somewhat more energy dense.

http://news.stanford.edu/news/2015/march/aluminum-ion-battery-033115.html

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v520/n7547/full/nature14340.html
Stanford uni has a very long history of producing papers on all sorts of
wonderful stuff which never make it to commercial production.

The fact that people have been working on Al batteries for about 20
years already with no success tells me it might be difficult.

My take on the Tesla announcement is that Elon Musk needs an outlet for
the batteries he is using for electric cars, now that sales for those
are way below the original forecasts.

Certainly a 7KWh power pack is nowhere near enough for anything other
than emergency supply for a domestic house. Work out the capacity you
need for say 3-4 days without useful sunshine. Here in sunny Queensland
we have that regularly 2-3 times a year. No possible way you can go
off-grid.

And yes, I have a solar array, and make a good profit selling the excess
power back to the grid, but there is no way I could justify batteries
and go off grid.

--
Regards,

Adrian Jansen adrianjansen at internode dot on dot net
Note reply address is invalid, convert address above to machine form.
 
On 24/05/2015 10:30 PM, Gordon Levi wrote:
Sylvia Else <sylvia@not.at.this.address> wrote:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-21/powerwall-solar-batteries-to-transform-electricity-industry/6488230

http://www.teslamotors.com/en_AU/powerwall

At $5500 (is that including GST?) for a 7kWh model, with a ten year
life, and allowing for interest, that comes in at about 28 cents per
kWh, and that's before the cost of the solar panels and the inverter
(not included with the battery), and installation, is included. It's
also based on the questionable (i.e. certainly false) assumption that
they can be recharged from solar everyday. The reality is that they
won't be, and the cost per kWh will be accordingly higher.

The limit of 2kW continuous and 3.3kW peak should also be noted. It
isn't clear how long one can draw 3.3kW for, but 2kW is less than is
required to run an ordinary domestic kettle. A typical household might
have trouble using the entire capacity, pushing up the effective cost
per kWh.

Hopefully, we are all set to "waste money" on minimising Anthropogenic
Global Warming! Households that are installing battery backed solar or
wind are doing their best to lower their own carbon footprint.

That depends on how much pollution, waste and resources are used/made to
make the batteries.

People often leave that out of the equation when they start talking
about lowering their carbon footprint.

Like buying new cars for instance. You would do more for the environment
by driving a and old plumer for 20 years instead of buying a new car
every couple of years when you consider the amount of energy and waste
produced that went into building that new car.
 
On 25/05/2015 6:55 AM, Adrian Jansen wrote:
On 22/5/2015 2:24 PM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 22/05/2015 12:12 PM, Sylvia Else wrote:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-21/powerwall-solar-batteries-to-transform-electricity-industry/6488230




http://www.teslamotors.com/en_AU/powerwall

At $5500 (is that including GST?) for a 7kWh model, with a ten year
life, and allowing for interest, that comes in at about 28 cents per
kWh, and that's before the cost of the solar panels and the inverter
(not included with the battery), and installation, is included. It's
also based on the questionable (i.e. certainly false) assumption that
they can be recharged from solar everyday. The reality is that they
won't be, and the cost per kWh will be accordingly higher.

The limit of 2kW continuous and 3.3kW peak should also be noted. It
isn't clear how long one can draw 3.3kW for, but 2kW is less than is
required to run an ordinary domestic kettle. A typical household might
have trouble using the entire capacity, pushing up the effective cost
per kWh.

The good thing about these is that they may finally force a change to
the way electricity is charged for, with much greater emphasis placed on
the cost of making it available versus the cost of supplying it when
it's required. People who treat the grid as a backup will then pay
something closer to the true cost of using it that way.

Either way, I'll have to look at that the economics of charging these on
overnight off-peak power (generated by coal fired power stations) for
use during the evening peak when the much more expensive power would
otherwise be generated using less polluting natural gas, or even hydro.

Sylvia.


**A couple of points and questions:

* How do you arrive at 28c/kWh? Please show your calculations.
* A 7kWh model is way too small for most households, except for
emergency situations.
* Li-Ion batteries are close to being wiped out by new developments in
aluminium battery technology. Such technology is likely to be:

* Significantly cheaper.
* Capable of many more charge/discharge cycles.
* Much safer.
* Somewhat more energy dense.

http://news.stanford.edu/news/2015/march/aluminum-ion-battery-033115.html

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v520/n7547/full/nature14340.html



Stanford uni has a very long history of producing papers on all sorts of
wonderful stuff which never make it to commercial production.

The fact that people have been working on Al batteries for about 20
years already with no success tells me it might be difficult.

My take on the Tesla announcement is that Elon Musk needs an outlet for
the batteries he is using for electric cars, now that sales for those
are way below the original forecasts.

Certainly a 7KWh power pack is nowhere near enough for anything other
than emergency supply for a domestic house. Work out the capacity you
need for say 3-4 days without useful sunshine. Here in sunny Queensland
we have that regularly 2-3 times a year. No possible way you can go
off-grid.

And yes, I have a solar array, and make a good profit selling the excess
power back to the grid, but there is no way I could justify batteries
and go off grid.

That's correct. However, getting off grid may not even be desirable.
In this blog:
http://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/will-the-tesla-powerwall-let-you-go-off-grid-for-3500/
there is talk about feeding into the grid when power is expensive.
I don't know in which states or areas this would be possible, but it
would make a lot of sense. You would even be able to establish something
like 'micro grids'.

I cite
**
There is a little Aussie company in Canberra called Reposit Power. They
have developed software that can be uploaded to a battery inverter. This
software talks to the National Electricity Market, and does deals with
them. To cut a long story short – it lets you trade your solar + battery
power on that market instead of getting a piddly 6-8c from your Feed In
Tariff. Sometimes the cost on the wholesale market goes up to $13.50
per kWh (yes – you read that right!). If you can pump a few kW out in
those peak times you are well on the way to offsetting your grid
connection charges. This is not vaporware. I saw it up and running on a
farm near Canberra a couple of weeks ago.
**
Something to think about.

Cheers

Tony
 
On 25/05/2015 12:41 PM, news13 wrote:
On Sun, 24 May 2015 20:19:58 +1000, Sylvia Else wrote:

On 24/05/2015 7:51 PM, news13 wrote:

Are you aware of a lead acid deep cycle battery whose manufacturer
states that it will last in excess of 3600 cycles at 50% discharge?

If I wanted long -life, I'd be planning on 10-20% discharge per day for
a DCLA. Only 3600 cycles should be easily achieved for wet under those
conditions.

But now you need more batteries, which pushes the price up.

Rule one, if you see price as the limitation, then you'd better study
study investments 101 again and redo your figures.

That sounds like "capital cost isn't important, because it's incurred
only once."

Any money spent on batteries is money that cannot be placed on deposit
to earn interest, so the price does matter.

Sylvia.
 
On 25/05/2015 12:30 AM, Gordon Levi wrote:
Sylvia Else <sylvia@not.at.this.address> wrote:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-21/powerwall-solar-batteries-to-transform-electricity-industry/6488230

http://www.teslamotors.com/en_AU/powerwall

At $5500 (is that including GST?) for a 7kWh model, with a ten year
life, and allowing for interest, that comes in at about 28 cents per
kWh, and that's before the cost of the solar panels and the inverter
(not included with the battery), and installation, is included. It's
also based on the questionable (i.e. certainly false) assumption that
they can be recharged from solar everyday. The reality is that they
won't be, and the cost per kWh will be accordingly higher.

The limit of 2kW continuous and 3.3kW peak should also be noted. It
isn't clear how long one can draw 3.3kW for, but 2kW is less than is
required to run an ordinary domestic kettle. A typical household might
have trouble using the entire capacity, pushing up the effective cost
per kWh.

Hopefully, we are all set to "waste money" on minimising Anthropogenic
Global Warming! Households that are installing battery backed solar or
wind are doing their best to lower their own carbon footprint.

If you doubt that AGW is a problem then any waste of money on
batteries is insignificant compared to the government's "waste of
money" Direct Action Plan and Renewable Energy Targets.

The good thing about these is that they may finally force a change to
the way electricity is charged for, with much greater emphasis placed on
the cost of making it available versus the cost of supplying it when
it's required. People who treat the grid as a backup will then pay
something closer to the true cost of using it that way.

Once again, you assume that the "true cost" does not include the cost
of AGW. If the aim is to minimise carbon emissions then it is
inevitable that we will pay more for electricity. The aim should be to
regard carbon emissions as a major cost and to tailor the supply to
maximise the use of renewables.

Either way, I'll have to look at that the economics of charging these on
overnight off-peak power (generated by coal fired power stations)

That must change. Base _load_ is often confused with the cheapest
_supply_. Coal and gas should only be used if renewables cannot meet
the current load.
for
use during the evening peak when the much more expensive power would
otherwise be generated using less polluting natural gas, or even hydro.

This is a thread about economics, not the environment, but if you want
people to adjust their behaviour so as to reduce their impact on the
environment, then you will have to get an adjustment to the pricing
signals. Most people cannot afford to put their environmental concerns
ahead of their bank balance.

Sylvia.
 
On Mon, 25 May 2015 13:21:25 +1000, Sylvia Else wrote:

On 25/05/2015 12:41 PM, news13 wrote:
On Sun, 24 May 2015 20:19:58 +1000, Sylvia Else wrote:

But now you need more batteries, which pushes the price up.

Rule one, if you see price as the limitation, then you'd better study
study investments 101 again and redo your figures.


That sounds like "capital cost isn't important, because it's incurred
only once."

Any money spent on batteries is money that cannot be placed on deposit
to earn interest, so the price does matter.

Oooh, side step. Discharge to 50% and have to replace 6x over the life of
double cost & discharge to 20%.
 
Sylvia Else <sylvia@not.at.this.address> wrote:

On 26/05/2015 12:30 AM, Gordon Levi wrote:
Sylvia Else <sylvia@not.at.this.address> wrote:

On 25/05/2015 12:30 AM, Gordon Levi wrote:
Sylvia Else <sylvia@not.at.this.address> wrote:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-21/powerwall-solar-batteries-to-transform-electricity-industry/6488230

http://www.teslamotors.com/en_AU/powerwall

At $5500 (is that including GST?) for a 7kWh model, with a ten year
life, and allowing for interest, that comes in at about 28 cents per
kWh, and that's before the cost of the solar panels and the inverter
(not included with the battery), and installation, is included. It's
also based on the questionable (i.e. certainly false) assumption that
they can be recharged from solar everyday. The reality is that they
won't be, and the cost per kWh will be accordingly higher.

The limit of 2kW continuous and 3.3kW peak should also be noted. It
isn't clear how long one can draw 3.3kW for, but 2kW is less than is
required to run an ordinary domestic kettle. A typical household might
have trouble using the entire capacity, pushing up the effective cost
per kWh.

Hopefully, we are all set to "waste money" on minimising Anthropogenic
Global Warming! Households that are installing battery backed solar or
wind are doing their best to lower their own carbon footprint.

If you doubt that AGW is a problem then any waste of money on
batteries is insignificant compared to the government's "waste of
money" Direct Action Plan and Renewable Energy Targets.

The good thing about these is that they may finally force a change to
the way electricity is charged for, with much greater emphasis placed on
the cost of making it available versus the cost of supplying it when
it's required. People who treat the grid as a backup will then pay
something closer to the true cost of using it that way.

Once again, you assume that the "true cost" does not include the cost
of AGW. If the aim is to minimise carbon emissions then it is
inevitable that we will pay more for electricity. The aim should be to
regard carbon emissions as a major cost and to tailor the supply to
maximise the use of renewables.

Either way, I'll have to look at that the economics of charging these on
overnight off-peak power (generated by coal fired power stations)

That must change. Base _load_ is often confused with the cheapest
_supply_. Coal and gas should only be used if renewables cannot meet
the current load.
for
use during the evening peak when the much more expensive power would
otherwise be generated using less polluting natural gas, or even hydro.


This is a thread about economics, not the environment, but if you want
people to adjust their behaviour so as to reduce their impact on the
environment, then you will have to get an adjustment to the pricing
signals. Most people cannot afford to put their environmental concerns
ahead of their bank balance.

You started a thread on the topic of wasting money on batteries. Most
people cannot afford to buy the batteries. For those that can, the
target market is those that will buy them in the hope of lowering
their carbon footprint. I am reasonable confident that the number of
geeks willing to buy them based on saving money by time shifting their
electricity consumption is very close to one.

I don't think that's the target market at all. The target market is
anyone who can be persuaded to buy one, and that includes those people
who can be wrongly convinced that by this approach they can reduce their
overall power cost. I rather suspect that the latter will constitute the
lion's share of the market.

That is because you are the one! I don't believe that anybody else
would contemplate spending $5500 to store some off peak electricity
from the grid for use in peak periods.
 
On 26/05/2015 6:25 PM, Gordon Levi wrote:
Sylvia Else <sylvia@not.at.this.address> wrote:

On 26/05/2015 12:30 AM, Gordon Levi wrote:
Sylvia Else <sylvia@not.at.this.address> wrote:

On 25/05/2015 12:30 AM, Gordon Levi wrote:
Sylvia Else <sylvia@not.at.this.address> wrote:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-21/powerwall-solar-batteries-to-transform-electricity-industry/6488230

http://www.teslamotors.com/en_AU/powerwall

At $5500 (is that including GST?) for a 7kWh model, with a ten year
life, and allowing for interest, that comes in at about 28 cents per
kWh, and that's before the cost of the solar panels and the inverter
(not included with the battery), and installation, is included. It's
also based on the questionable (i.e. certainly false) assumption that
they can be recharged from solar everyday. The reality is that they
won't be, and the cost per kWh will be accordingly higher.

The limit of 2kW continuous and 3.3kW peak should also be noted. It
isn't clear how long one can draw 3.3kW for, but 2kW is less than is
required to run an ordinary domestic kettle. A typical household might
have trouble using the entire capacity, pushing up the effective cost
per kWh.

Hopefully, we are all set to "waste money" on minimising Anthropogenic
Global Warming! Households that are installing battery backed solar or
wind are doing their best to lower their own carbon footprint.

If you doubt that AGW is a problem then any waste of money on
batteries is insignificant compared to the government's "waste of
money" Direct Action Plan and Renewable Energy Targets.

The good thing about these is that they may finally force a change to
the way electricity is charged for, with much greater emphasis placed on
the cost of making it available versus the cost of supplying it when
it's required. People who treat the grid as a backup will then pay
something closer to the true cost of using it that way.

Once again, you assume that the "true cost" does not include the cost
of AGW. If the aim is to minimise carbon emissions then it is
inevitable that we will pay more for electricity. The aim should be to
regard carbon emissions as a major cost and to tailor the supply to
maximise the use of renewables.

Either way, I'll have to look at that the economics of charging these on
overnight off-peak power (generated by coal fired power stations)

That must change. Base _load_ is often confused with the cheapest
_supply_. Coal and gas should only be used if renewables cannot meet
the current load.
for
use during the evening peak when the much more expensive power would
otherwise be generated using less polluting natural gas, or even hydro.


This is a thread about economics, not the environment, but if you want
people to adjust their behaviour so as to reduce their impact on the
environment, then you will have to get an adjustment to the pricing
signals. Most people cannot afford to put their environmental concerns
ahead of their bank balance.

You started a thread on the topic of wasting money on batteries. Most
people cannot afford to buy the batteries. For those that can, the
target market is those that will buy them in the hope of lowering
their carbon footprint. I am reasonable confident that the number of
geeks willing to buy them based on saving money by time shifting their
electricity consumption is very close to one.

I don't think that's the target market at all. The target market is
anyone who can be persuaded to buy one, and that includes those people
who can be wrongly convinced that by this approach they can reduce their
overall power cost. I rather suspect that the latter will constitute the
lion's share of the market.

That is because you are the one!I don't believe that anybody else
would contemplate spending $5500 to store some off peak electricity
from the grid for use in peak periods.

It it saved money, why not?

However, I haven't done the sums, so I don't know whether it would.

Sylvia.
 
Sylvia Else <sylvia@not.at.this.address> wrote:

On 26/05/2015 6:25 PM, Gordon Levi wrote:
Sylvia Else <sylvia@not.at.this.address> wrote:

On 26/05/2015 12:30 AM, Gordon Levi wrote:
Sylvia Else <sylvia@not.at.this.address> wrote:

On 25/05/2015 12:30 AM, Gordon Levi wrote:
Sylvia Else <sylvia@not.at.this.address> wrote:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-21/powerwall-solar-batteries-to-transform-electricity-industry/6488230

http://www.teslamotors.com/en_AU/powerwall

At $5500 (is that including GST?) for a 7kWh model, with a ten year
life, and allowing for interest, that comes in at about 28 cents per
kWh, and that's before the cost of the solar panels and the inverter
(not included with the battery), and installation, is included. It's
also based on the questionable (i.e. certainly false) assumption that
they can be recharged from solar everyday. The reality is that they
won't be, and the cost per kWh will be accordingly higher.

The limit of 2kW continuous and 3.3kW peak should also be noted. It
isn't clear how long one can draw 3.3kW for, but 2kW is less than is
required to run an ordinary domestic kettle. A typical household might
have trouble using the entire capacity, pushing up the effective cost
per kWh.

Hopefully, we are all set to "waste money" on minimising Anthropogenic
Global Warming! Households that are installing battery backed solar or
wind are doing their best to lower their own carbon footprint.

If you doubt that AGW is a problem then any waste of money on
batteries is insignificant compared to the government's "waste of
money" Direct Action Plan and Renewable Energy Targets.

The good thing about these is that they may finally force a change to
the way electricity is charged for, with much greater emphasis placed on
the cost of making it available versus the cost of supplying it when
it's required. People who treat the grid as a backup will then pay
something closer to the true cost of using it that way.

Once again, you assume that the "true cost" does not include the cost
of AGW. If the aim is to minimise carbon emissions then it is
inevitable that we will pay more for electricity. The aim should be to
regard carbon emissions as a major cost and to tailor the supply to
maximise the use of renewables.

Either way, I'll have to look at that the economics of charging these on
overnight off-peak power (generated by coal fired power stations)

That must change. Base _load_ is often confused with the cheapest
_supply_. Coal and gas should only be used if renewables cannot meet
the current load.
for
use during the evening peak when the much more expensive power would
otherwise be generated using less polluting natural gas, or even hydro.


This is a thread about economics, not the environment, but if you want
people to adjust their behaviour so as to reduce their impact on the
environment, then you will have to get an adjustment to the pricing
signals. Most people cannot afford to put their environmental concerns
ahead of their bank balance.

You started a thread on the topic of wasting money on batteries. Most
people cannot afford to buy the batteries. For those that can, the
target market is those that will buy them in the hope of lowering
their carbon footprint. I am reasonable confident that the number of
geeks willing to buy them based on saving money by time shifting their
electricity consumption is very close to one.

I don't think that's the target market at all. The target market is
anyone who can be persuaded to buy one, and that includes those people
who can be wrongly convinced that by this approach they can reduce their
overall power cost. I rather suspect that the latter will constitute the
lion's share of the market.

That is because you are the one!I don't believe that anybody else
would contemplate spending $5500 to store some off peak electricity
from the grid for use in peak periods.


It it saved money, why not?

No reason at all. I was commenting on the fact that although such
extreme geekiness is endearing it is far too rare to make a market for
the battery. That is why I'm reasonably confident the target market is
those that already have solar and wish to further reduce their carbon
footprint with battery backup.
>However, I haven't done the sums, so I don't know whether it would.

That's another reason why the target market is not those who wish to
save money. The sums depend on some estimates of electricity pricing
over the life of the battery and that is unpredictable. As you rightly
point out, widespread use of the battery would affect electricity
prices.

My only point of disagreement is your subject line. If the buyers do
lower their carbon footprint it is not a waste of money.
 
On 26/05/2015 11:30 PM, Gordon Levi wrote:
Sylvia Else <sylvia@not.at.this.address> wrote:

On 26/05/2015 6:25 PM, Gordon Levi wrote:
Sylvia Else <sylvia@not.at.this.address> wrote:

On 26/05/2015 12:30 AM, Gordon Levi wrote:
Sylvia Else <sylvia@not.at.this.address> wrote:

On 25/05/2015 12:30 AM, Gordon Levi wrote:
Sylvia Else <sylvia@not.at.this.address> wrote:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-21/powerwall-solar-batteries-to-transform-electricity-industry/6488230

http://www.teslamotors.com/en_AU/powerwall

At $5500 (is that including GST?) for a 7kWh model, with a ten year
life, and allowing for interest, that comes in at about 28 cents per
kWh, and that's before the cost of the solar panels and the inverter
(not included with the battery), and installation, is included. It's
also based on the questionable (i.e. certainly false) assumption that
they can be recharged from solar everyday. The reality is that they
won't be, and the cost per kWh will be accordingly higher.

The limit of 2kW continuous and 3.3kW peak should also be noted. It
isn't clear how long one can draw 3.3kW for, but 2kW is less than is
required to run an ordinary domestic kettle. A typical household might
have trouble using the entire capacity, pushing up the effective cost
per kWh.

Hopefully, we are all set to "waste money" on minimising Anthropogenic
Global Warming! Households that are installing battery backed solar or
wind are doing their best to lower their own carbon footprint.

If you doubt that AGW is a problem then any waste of money on
batteries is insignificant compared to the government's "waste of
money" Direct Action Plan and Renewable Energy Targets.

The good thing about these is that they may finally force a change to
the way electricity is charged for, with much greater emphasis placed on
the cost of making it available versus the cost of supplying it when
it's required. People who treat the grid as a backup will then pay
something closer to the true cost of using it that way.

Once again, you assume that the "true cost" does not include the cost
of AGW. If the aim is to minimise carbon emissions then it is
inevitable that we will pay more for electricity. The aim should be to
regard carbon emissions as a major cost and to tailor the supply to
maximise the use of renewables.

Either way, I'll have to look at that the economics of charging these on
overnight off-peak power (generated by coal fired power stations)

That must change. Base _load_ is often confused with the cheapest
_supply_. Coal and gas should only be used if renewables cannot meet
the current load.
for
use during the evening peak when the much more expensive power would
otherwise be generated using less polluting natural gas, or even hydro.


This is a thread about economics, not the environment, but if you want
people to adjust their behaviour so as to reduce their impact on the
environment, then you will have to get an adjustment to the pricing
signals. Most people cannot afford to put their environmental concerns
ahead of their bank balance.

You started a thread on the topic of wasting money on batteries. Most
people cannot afford to buy the batteries. For those that can, the
target market is those that will buy them in the hope of lowering
their carbon footprint. I am reasonable confident that the number of
geeks willing to buy them based on saving money by time shifting their
electricity consumption is very close to one.

I don't think that's the target market at all. The target market is
anyone who can be persuaded to buy one, and that includes those people
who can be wrongly convinced that by this approach they can reduce their
overall power cost. I rather suspect that the latter will constitute the
lion's share of the market.

That is because you are the one!I don't believe that anybody else
would contemplate spending $5500 to store some off peak electricity
from the grid for use in peak periods.


It it saved money, why not?

No reason at all. I was commenting on the fact that although such
extreme geekiness is endearing it is far too rare to make a market for
the battery. That is why I'm reasonably confident the target market is
those that already have solar and wish to further reduce their carbon
footprint with battery backup.
However, I haven't done the sums, so I don't know whether it would.

That's another reason why the target market is not those who wish to
save money. The sums depend on some estimates of electricity pricing
over the life of the battery and that is unpredictable. As you rightly
point out, widespread use of the battery would affect electricity
prices.

My only point of disagreement is your subject line. If the buyers do
lower their carbon footprint it is not a waste of money.

The use for load shifting was an add-on, intended to show that take-up
of such batteries might not be the environmental positive that some assume.

My expectation remains that the market will consist of people naively
thinking they can save money by either adding these to an existing solar
system, or buying both a new solar system and the battery at the same
time. This will be aided marketing types making misleading claims[*],
and by the widespread lack of understanding of discounted cash flow.

Sylvia.

[*] With the usual barely legal small print weasel words.
 
"Adrian Jansen" wrote in message
news:55639b1f$0$2757$c3e8da3$76491128@news.astraweb.com...

. . .
If price follows scarcity, then the time the price is high will be
precisely when there is little or no solar power available.

I thought we were talking about having a battery to shift the availability
time.

However, if you can do that and turn a profit, how long will it be before
somebody else with a bigger, better battery starts undercutting you?
 
Sylvia Else wrote:

The last time I looked here in WestOz, you couldn't grid tie with a
system with storage (batteries). Otherwise everybody would load up
batteries on off-peak and feed them back into the grid at peak rates.
Money for jam.


If it ever became genuinely economic, the power companies would start
doing it, and economies of scale for the companies would mean that the
home battery owner couldn't compete.

** On the east coast, they have been storing off peak power for the last 50 years and and feeding it back into the grid at peak times.

The "storage batteries" involved are the various dams in the Snowy mountains.

Pedro's point is solid however, wherever "off-peak" is defined by times of day and domestic energy meters have dual rates built in.


.... Phil
 
On Tue, 26 May 2015 07:34:48 +1000, Adrian Jansen <adrian@qq.vv.net>
wrote:

Hmm,

The chances of having a high feed-in price at the exact time you have
some power to feed in sound pretty low to me.

If price follows scarcity, then the time the price is high will be
precisely when there is little or no solar power available.

The last time I looked here in WestOz, you couldn't grid tie with a
system with storage (batteries). Otherwise everybody would load up
batteries on off-peak and feed them back into the grid at peak rates.
Money for jam.
 
On 27/05/2015 6:41 PM, pedro wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2015 07:34:48 +1000, Adrian Jansen <adrian@qq.vv.net
wrote:

Hmm,

The chances of having a high feed-in price at the exact time you have
some power to feed in sound pretty low to me.

If price follows scarcity, then the time the price is high will be
precisely when there is little or no solar power available.

The last time I looked here in WestOz, you couldn't grid tie with a
system with storage (batteries). Otherwise everybody would load up
batteries on off-peak and feed them back into the grid at peak rates.
Money for jam.

If it ever became genuinely economic, the power companies would start
doing it, and economies of scale for the companies would mean that the
home battery owner couldn't compete.

Sylvia.
 
Once upon a time on usenet news13 wrote:
[snip]
I supposed the real test will be the take up by the whacky bacca
brigade to try and hide the huge electricity bill.

Which would be a rather silly way to do it when going to all LED lighting of
mainly just the wavelengths for chlorophyll requirements can cut said huge
bill down to below 10% of previous growlight solutions.

Or indeed fitting one or more of those 'daylight tube' skylight systems and
supplementing it with LED lighting (for photoperiod manipulation, required
for multiple crops a year) would still likely be much cheaper than PV panels
and battery storage.
--
Shaun.

"Humans will have advanced a long, long, way when religious belief has a
cozy little classification in the DSM*."
David Melville (in r.a.s.f1)
(*Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders)
 
On 22/05/2015 12:12 PM, Sylvia Else wrote:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-21/powerwall-solar-batteries-to-transform-electricity-industry/6488230


http://www.teslamotors.com/en_AU/powerwall

At $5500 (is that including GST?) for a 7kWh model, with a ten year
life, and allowing for interest, that comes in at about 28 cents per
kWh, and that's before the cost of the solar panels and the inverter
(not included with the battery), and installation, is included. It's
also based on the questionable (i.e. certainly false) assumption that
they can be recharged from solar everyday. The reality is that they
won't be, and the cost per kWh will be accordingly higher.

The limit of 2kW continuous and 3.3kW peak should also be noted. It
isn't clear how long one can draw 3.3kW for, but 2kW is less than is
required to run an ordinary domestic kettle. A typical household might
have trouble using the entire capacity, pushing up the effective cost
per kWh.

The good thing about these is that they may finally force a change to
the way electricity is charged for, with much greater emphasis placed on
the cost of making it available versus the cost of supplying it when
it's required. People who treat the grid as a backup will then pay
something closer to the true cost of using it that way.

Either way, I'll have to look at that the economics of charging these on
overnight off-peak power (generated by coal fired power stations) for
use during the evening peak when the much more expensive power would
otherwise be generated using less polluting natural gas, or even hydro.

Sylvia.

**I spoke with my next door neighbour about these batteries yesterday.
He is an accountant. As such, he views most things through the eyes of
an accountant (and computer programmer). He has a Solar array on his
roof and, therefore, has a 'smart' metering system on his home. He was
telling me that present charges for peak power is around $0.50/kWh. His
idea is to charge the battery with his PV array, or when power is cheap,
so he can use energy from the battery when power is expensive.

Don't forget: Electricity is not likely to get cheaper in the future.

--
Trevor Wilson
www.rageaudio.com.au

---
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
http://www.avast.com
 
On 3/06/2015 6:50 AM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 22/05/2015 12:12 PM, Sylvia Else wrote:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-21/powerwall-solar-batteries-to-transform-electricity-industry/6488230



http://www.teslamotors.com/en_AU/powerwall

At $5500 (is that including GST?) for a 7kWh model, with a ten year
life, and allowing for interest, that comes in at about 28 cents per
kWh, and that's before the cost of the solar panels and the inverter
(not included with the battery), and installation, is included. It's
also based on the questionable (i.e. certainly false) assumption that
they can be recharged from solar everyday. The reality is that they
won't be, and the cost per kWh will be accordingly higher.

The limit of 2kW continuous and 3.3kW peak should also be noted. It
isn't clear how long one can draw 3.3kW for, but 2kW is less than is
required to run an ordinary domestic kettle. A typical household might
have trouble using the entire capacity, pushing up the effective cost
per kWh.

The good thing about these is that they may finally force a change to
the way electricity is charged for, with much greater emphasis placed on
the cost of making it available versus the cost of supplying it when
it's required. People who treat the grid as a backup will then pay
something closer to the true cost of using it that way.

Either way, I'll have to look at that the economics of charging these on
overnight off-peak power (generated by coal fired power stations) for
use during the evening peak when the much more expensive power would
otherwise be generated using less polluting natural gas, or even hydro.

Sylvia.


**I spoke with my next door neighbour about these batteries yesterday.
He is an accountant. As such, he views most things through the eyes of
an accountant (and computer programmer). He has a Solar array on his
roof and, therefore, has a 'smart' metering system on his home. He was
telling me that present charges for peak power is around $0.50/kWh. His
idea is to charge the battery with his PV array, or when power is cheap,
so he can use energy from the battery when power is expensive.

That's what I was saying. The question is whether it's economic.
Don't forget: Electricity is not likely to get cheaper in the future.

Prices have been pushed up in the recent past in part because of higher
reliability requirements imposed on distributors, and in part because of
the cost of subsidising uneconomic renewable power. We may have seen the
worst of the latter (people have wised-up and it's no longer politically
expedient), and in due course, the subsidies will drop out as the
excessively generous feed-in tariffs expire.

Sylvia.
 

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