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different door if you had chosen the car, changing would be a bad"William Sommerwerck" <grizzledgeezer@comcast.net> wrote in
message news:iqj8k9$oi5$1@dont-email.me
After you know there is a goat behind door #3 and are
given a chance to guess again, there is a 50% chance the
car is behind door #1 and a 50% chance the car if behind
door #2. Change your choice or not, you have a 50%
chance of being right.
This is not correct. I explained it in a previous post.
You seriously think I didn't read your alleged explanation?
You've been known to be wrong before... ;-)
Like this...
Because you will have initially selected the wrong door
2/3 of the time (right?) it follows that 2/3 of the time
the good prize will be behind one of the two other doors.
The host will /always/ select a door with a goat,
therefore, you should switch, because there's a 2/3
chance the other door will have the good prize.
That is sheerist bollocks.
Your first mistake is assuming that there is a connection between your 2
guesses. In fact you have been given two different and disconnected games to
play.
Other than the fact that the car and 1 goat are carries-over from the first
game, there is no connection. If they brought in another car and another
goat, then the odds during the second game would be the same.
When you play the second game your odds of winning have improved to 1/2.
You have 1 chances out of 2, no more, no less to win when there are 2
opportunities.
Pick whichever door you will, unless you can smell the goat! ;-)
It would appear to me that the real purpose of this thread is to test the
gullibility of people.
Well said. Now if the host only offered the opportunity to chose a
or you can choose the other door. The car is behind one of them.Arny Krueger wrote:
"Bill Graham" <weg9@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:t_ydnZKHN4u_QlHQnZ2dnUVZ5rWdnZ2d@giganews.com
Soundhaspriority wrote:
"Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the
choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind
the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the
host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another
door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you,
"Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your
advantage to switch your choice?" The above is a famous problem.
I've left out the
attribution to give you a few minutes (or forever, if
you want) to enjoy it. Bob Morein
(310) 237-6511
When you pick door #1 you only have a 1/3 chance of
winning. But after you see that there is a goat behind
door #3, your chance of winning is 1/2, so I would change
doors and pick door #2. But I don't really know
why....It's just gambler's instinct with me.
After you know there is a goat behind door #3 and are given a chance
to guess again, there is a 50% chance the car is behind door #1 and a
50% chance the car if behind door #2. Change your choice or not, you
have a 50% chance of being right.
But when you first entered the arena, you only had a 1/3 chance of winning.
How does that chance change halfway through the game, and why would it
matter whether you changed doors or not?
Exactly!!! In effect it is a new game. You can choose the same door,
And so have you."William Sommerwerck" <grizzledgeezer@comcast.net> wrote in
message news:iqj8k9$oi5$1@dont-email.me
After you know there is a goat behind door #3 and are
given a chance to guess again, there is a 50% chance the
car is behind door #1 and a 50% chance the car if behind
door #2. Change your choice or not, you have a 50%
chance of being right.
This is not correct. I explained it in a previous post.
You seriously think I didn't read your alleged explanation?
You've been known to be wrong before... ;-)
It is, in fact, the correct explanation. It is simple and easily understoodBecause you will have initially selected the wrong door
2/3 of the time (right?) it follows that 2/3 of the time
the good prize will be behind one of the two other doors.
The host will /always/ select a door with a goat,
therefore, you should switch, because there's a 2/3
chance the other door will have the good prize.
That is sheerist bollocks.
No, it doesn't. That's not correct.But by not switching doors, you are ignoring the new information that the
prize has to be behind one of the other two doors....
No, it doesn't. Your new chance of winning is 2/3.You are sticking with
your original guess that had only a 1/3 chance of being right. By
switching
doors, you are including the new information that the prize has to be
behind
one of the other two doors, and your new chance of winning is 50%.
No, the new probability is 2/3.Well said. Now if the host only offered the opportunity to chose a
different door if you had chosen the car, changing would be a bad
idea. As it is, the odds are now 1 of 2, rather than 1 of 3.
No, it doesn't. That's not correct.But by not switching doors, you are ignoring the new
information that the
prize has to be behind one of the other two doors....
No, it doesn't. Your new chance of winning is 2/3.You are sticking with
your original guess that had only a 1/3 chance of being right.
By
switching
doors, you are including the new information that the prize has
to be
behind
one of the other two doors, and your new chance of winning is
50%.
other doors - the choice if you swap. The revealed goat is one of theOn Fri, 13 May 2011 12:19:45 -0700, "Bill Graham" <weg9@comcast.net
wrote:
Arny Krueger wrote:
"Bill Graham" <weg9@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:t_ydnZKHN4u_QlHQnZ2dnUVZ5rWdnZ2d@giganews.com
Soundhaspriority wrote:
"Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the
choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind
the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the
host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another
door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you,
"Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your
advantage to switch your choice?" The above is a famous problem.
I've left out the
attribution to give you a few minutes (or forever, if
you want) to enjoy it. Bob Morein
(310) 237-6511
When you pick door #1 you only have a 1/3 chance of
winning. But after you see that there is a goat behind
door #3, your chance of winning is 1/2, so I would change
doors and pick door #2. But I don't really know
why....It's just gambler's instinct with me.
After you know there is a goat behind door #3 and are given a chance
to guess again, there is a 50% chance the car is behind door #1 and a
50% chance the car if behind door #2. Change your choice or not, you
have a 50% chance of being right.
But when you first entered the arena, you only had a 1/3 chance of winning.
How does that chance change halfway through the game, and why would it
matter whether you changed doors or not?
Exactly!!! In effect it is a new game. You can choose the same door,
or you can choose the other door. The car is behind one of them.
50-50.
No, you are in fact choosing one door (your first choice) or BOTH the
Thank you, Don! Describing the problem in that way is without a doubtor you can choose the other door. The car is behind one of them.
50-50.
No, you are in fact choosing one door (your first choice) or BOTH the
other doors - the choice if you swap.
Declaring that there is no connection between the two situations is"William Sommerwerck" <grizzledgee...@comcast.net> wrote in
messagenews:iqj8k9$oi5$1@dont-email.me
After you know there is a goat behind door #3 and are
given a chance to guess again, there is a 50% chance the
car is behind door #1 and a 50% chance the car if behind
door #2. Change your choice or not, you have a 50%
chance of being right.
This is not correct. I explained it in a previous post.
You seriously think I didn't read your alleged explanation?
You've been known to be wrong before... ;-)
Like this...
Because you will have initially selected the wrong door
2/3 of the time (right?) it follows that 2/3 of the time
the good prize will be behind one of the two other doors.
The host will /always/ select a door with a goat,
therefore, you should switch, because there's a 2/3
chance the other door will have the good prize.
That is sheerist bollocks.
Your first mistake is assuming that there is a connection between your 2
guesses. In fact you have been given two different and disconnected games to
play.
Other than the fact that the car and 1 goat are carries-over from the first
game, there is no connection.
This explanation (by subtraction) from the wikipedia article struckIn article <4dcd9c92.240121...@news.eternal-september.org>,
Don Pearce <s...@spam.com> wrote:
or you can choose the other door. The car is behind one of them.
50-50.
No, you are in fact choosing one door (your first choice) or BOTH the
other doors - the choice if you swap.
Thank you, Don! Describing the problem in that way is without a doubt
the clearest explanation of the "paradox" I have ever read.
"William Sommerwerck" <grizzledgeezer@comcast.net> wrote in
message news:iqj8k9$oi5$1@dont-email.me
After you know there is a goat behind door #3 and are
given a chance to guess again, there is a 50% chance the
car is behind door #1 and a 50% chance the car if behind
door #2. Change your choice or not, you have a 50%
chance of being right.
This is not correct. I explained it in a previous post.
You seriously think I didn't read your alleged explanation?
You've been known to be wrong before... ;-)
Like this...
Because you will have initially selected the wrong door
2/3 of the time (right?) it follows that 2/3 of the time
the good prize will be behind one of the two other doors.
The host will /always/ select a door with a goat,
therefore, you should switch, because there's a 2/3
chance the other door will have the good prize.
That is sheerist bollocks.
Your first mistake is assuming that there is a connection between your 2
guesses. In fact you have been given two different and disconnected games
to play.
Other than the fact that the car and 1 goat are carries-over from the
first game, there is no connection. If they brought in another car and
another goat, then the odds during the second game would be the same.
When you play the second game your odds of winning have improved to 1/2.
You have 1 chances out of 2, no more, no less to win when there are 2
opportunities.
Pick whichever door you will, unless you can smell the goat! ;-)
It would appear to me that the real purpose of this thread is to test the
gullibility of people.
Arny Krueger wrote:
"William Sommerwerck" <grizzledgeezer@comcast.net> wrote in
message news:iqj8k9$oi5$1@dont-email.me
After you know there is a goat behind door #3 and are
given a chance to guess again, there is a 50% chance the
car is behind door #1 and a 50% chance the car if behind
door #2. Change your choice or not, you have a 50%
chance of being right.
This is not correct. I explained it in a previous post.
You seriously think I didn't read your alleged explanation?
You've been known to be wrong before... ;-)
Like this...
Because you will have initially selected the wrong door
2/3 of the time (right?) it follows that 2/3 of the time
the good prize will be behind one of the two other doors.
The host will /always/ select a door with a goat,
therefore, you should switch, because there's a 2/3
chance the other door will have the good prize.
That is sheerist bollocks.
Your first mistake is assuming that there is a connection between
your 2 guesses. In fact you have been given two different and
disconnected games to play.
Other than the fact that the car and 1 goat are carries-over from the
first game, there is no connection. If they brought in another car
and another goat, then the odds during the second game would be the
same.
When you play the second game your odds of winning have improved to
1/2. You have 1 chances out of 2, no more, no less to win when there
are 2 opportunities.
Pick whichever door you will, unless you can smell the goat! ;-)
It would appear to me that the real purpose of this thread is to test
the gullibility of people.
But by not switching doors, you are ignoring the new information that the
prize has to be behind one of the other two doors.... You are sticking
with your original guess that had only a 1/3 chance of being right. By
switching doors, you are including the new information that the prize has
to be behind one of the other two doors, and your new chance of winning is
50%
IOW, lets suppose that you picked door #1 and then left the game, went
home, and waited by the phone to find out whether you won or not. There is
only a 1/3 chance of your getting the lucky call.
But by staying on board, and switching your guess to door #2, you are
taking advantage of the "new game" that has a 50% chance of
success........
"William Sommerwerck" wrote in message news:iqk4b0$cop$1@dont-email.me...
But by not switching doors, you are ignoring the new information that the
prize has to be behind one of the other two doors....
No, it doesn't. That's not correct.
You are sticking with
your original guess that had only a 1/3 chance of being right. By
switching
doors, you are including the new information that the prize has to be
behind
one of the other two doors, and your new chance of winning is 50%.
No, it doesn't. Your new chance of winning is 2/3.
***
This is similar to another puzzle. A couple has two children. What is the
probability that the second is a boy? The couple then volunteers that they
are not both girls. Now what is the probability the second is a boy?
The first case is 1/2. The second case is 2/3.
Right, whether you switch or not! *IF* the host didn't actually know whereAs it is, the odds are NOW 1 of 2, rather than 1 of 3.
Bingo! But still makes the 2/3 claim pure conjecture. Somewhere between 1/2You are ignoring the fact that the host KNOWS what is behind each door.
His
choice of which door to open is not random.
Rubbish, everyone knows the pea is in the carney's hand NOT under ANY of theThis is a variation of the three cups/shells hiding something shuffle
carney game...
What garbage, there are only now 2 doors whether you swap or not, ignoringNo, you are in fact choosing one door (your first choice) or BOTH the
other doors - the choice if you swap. The revealed goat is one of the
two-door choice, so you have twice the chance of winning the car if
you swap.
And WHY exactly would you choose the already revealed incorrect door for theIn article <4dcd9c92.240121013@news.eternal-september.org>,
Don Pearce <spam@spam.com> wrote:
or you can choose the other door. The car is behind one of them.
50-50.
No, you are in fact choosing one door (your first choice) or BOTH the
other doors - the choice if you swap.
Thank you, Don! Describing the problem in that way is without a doubt
the clearest explanation of the "paradox" I have ever read.
Which totally ignores the fact that the only reason the first door is openedThe player picks a door and has a 1/3 chance of being right. This
chance does not change when a losing door is revealed, so the only
remaining choice gives you a 2/3 chance.
Either you understand or you don't. It helps to have studied maths and"Don Pearce" <spam@spam.com> wrote in message
news:4dcd9c92.240121013@news.eternal-september.org...
No, you are in fact choosing one door (your first choice) or BOTH the
other doors - the choice if you swap. The revealed goat is one of the
two-door choice, so you have twice the chance of winning the car if
you swap.
What garbage, there are only now 2 doors whether you swap or not, ignoring
the TV host likely manipulation, which CANNOT be determined as a simple
statistic.
(although could probably be measured from a large number of such TV game
shows. I am unaware of any such actual measurement however)
Trevor.
This is like pulling teeth. I'm not going to explain it any more.