AGL electric cars $1.00 per day

[~misfit~]

Once upon a time on usenet Trevor Wilson wrote:

On 13/09/2017 9:03 AM, Computer Nerd Kev wrote:
Trevor Wilson <trevor@spamblockrageaudio.com.au> wrote:
On 12/09/2017 7:02 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 3:09 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:38 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:05 AM, FMurtz wrote:
What would they do with a thousand Teslas in one city?

**They're already here. Tesla is tight-lipped on sales data,
but sell approximately 1,000 cars per year. Let's say Tesla
have sold 1,000 cars
into Sydney, as Sydney is a significant portion of EV sales.

Then there's the others:

Nissan Leaf - 635 cars sold. Let's say, 200 are in Sydney.
Audi A3 e-tron - 128 cars sold. Let's say, 40 in Sydney.
Mitsubishi PHEV - 1,665 cars sold. Let's say, 550 in Sydney.
There are others, but figures are tiny.

So, there are at least 1,200 pure EVs in Sydney and probably a
similar
number in Melbourne. There are more PHEVs as well. Many are
most likely
operated solely on electricity.

Your point is?

Up to 40 amps for maybe 10 hours a day

**Yes. And your point is? I just showed that there are more
than 1,200 pure EVs (and quite a few PHEVs) in Sydney and
probably Melbourne right now. Every time I drive around Sydney,
I see at least one Tesla and frequently 2 or 3. There are more
coming.
we could handle a few

most EVs take a lot less than teslas and if there was a thousand
teslas in sydney itself and similar amounts in other suburbs it
would cost AGL a fortune

**I'll say it again: THERE ALREADY ARE MORE THAN 1,200 EVs IN
SYDNEY, RIGHT NOW!


**I'll say it again: TESLAs

**And I will say again: There are AT LEAST 1,000 Teslas in Sydney
right now. When the Model 3 arrives, you can expect that figure to
increase significantly.

Which will make AGL very happy when they decide to raise their prices
again.

**Perhaps. Perhaps not. Either way, more electricity will need to be
supplied, which may allow power companies to climb out of their death
spiral.


On another tack if every car was electric and huge advances were
not made in electric supply would that work, there are already
parts of the UK that recon they will mandate all electric in the
not too distant future, that will be fun.

**Can you suggest another alternative? Unless people in
Australia's large cities switch to public transport in droves,
then we are all in for a great deal of trouble. EVs can mitigate
some of the problem.
If all cars were electric they would probably have to figure out
how to tax highly the electricity used to charge them while not
the existing system ( maybe distance based rego?)and what to do
with the collapse of the existing fuel supply system

**You're thinking vertically. Every car will have a system that
communicates with the relevant authority and will be charged by
distance travelled on most roads.

I hope not, I don't want my car spying on me (though I'm probably
one of the very few who usually don't have another device spying on
them at the same time anyway).

**Then you would be one of the very few motorists that doesn't use a
toll tag. That would make driving around any of Australia's major
cities extremely inconvenient.


It seems to me that AGL have solved the government's problem for
them in this regard. Their new $1/day rate is charged on a specific
electric car outlet of a special power meter which has to be
installed in order to access the deal. The government just has to
bill AGL, and all those who copy them, for a percentage of what
their meters charge and the system is back to normal again.

The existing fuel supply system won't collapse overnight.

Yep, for as long as our civilisation keeps itself together I doubt
that it will ever become impossible for people like us to buy fuel,
but at some point soon it probably won't make sense to keep using it
for personal everyday transport.

**Keep imagining that. The fact is that oil is going to become a lot
more expensive and H2 and electricity will be cheaper. The oil
companies will be caught in their own death spiral in a few years.
Eventually, petrol/oil will be so expensive that buying an electric
or H2 powered car will be the preferred way for the vast majority.

What about agricultural and earthmoving machinery? Ocean-going ships and
airliners? Will they all go electric too? If not what will happen to the
petrol fraction of the oil that is left over when oil is refined for thier
use? (After all Carl Benz chose petrol to power his original ICE because it
was so very cheap as there was little use for it back then.)

https://youtu.be/jntsT0BdxDw?t=8m08s

The whole video is well worth a watch - and the channel a subscribe.
--
Shaun.

"Humans will have advanced a long, long way when religious belief has a cozy
little classification in the DSM*."
David Melville (in r.a.s.f1)
(*Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders)

 

[FMurtz]

Trevor Wilson wrote:

On 13/09/2017 11:17 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 7:02 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 3:09 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:38 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:05 AM, FMurtz wrote:
What would they do with a thousand Teslas in one city?

**They're already here. Tesla is tight-lipped on sales data, but
sell
approximately 1,000 cars per year. Let's say Tesla have sold 1,000
cars
into Sydney, as Sydney is a significant portion of EV sales.

Then there's the others:

Nissan Leaf - 635 cars sold. Let's say, 200 are in Sydney.
Audi A3 e-tron - 128 cars sold. Let's say, 40 in Sydney.
Mitsubishi PHEV - 1,665 cars sold. Let's say, 550 in Sydney.
There are others, but figures are tiny.

So, there are at least 1,200 pure EVs in Sydney and probably a
similar
number in Melbourne. There are more PHEVs as well. Many are most
likely
operated solely on electricity.

Your point is?

Up to 40 amps for maybe 10 hours a day

**Yes. And your point is? I just showed that there are more than
1,200
pure EVs (and quite a few PHEVs) in Sydney and probably Melbourne
right
now. Every time I drive around Sydney, I see at least one Tesla and
frequently 2 or 3. There are more coming.
we could handle a few

most EVs take a lot less than teslas and if there was a thousand
teslas in sydney itself and similar amounts in other suburbs it would
cost AGL a fortune

**I'll say it again: THERE ALREADY ARE MORE THAN 1,200 EVs IN SYDNEY,
RIGHT NOW!


**I'll say it again: TESLAs



**And I will say again: There are AT LEAST 1,000 Teslas in Sydney right
now.

So of the 1200 pure ev cars that you say are in Sydney, 1000 of them
are TESLAs ?

**That is my best guess, since Tesla don't provide full sales data.

Someone elses best guess in 2016 and as sales are dropping I doubt many
more,
There are at least 583 Model S Teslas on Australian roads, a car that
starts at around $123,000 (the base model was about $95,000 at launch,
but the price is based on the US dollar and thus changes regularly as
the Australian dollar drops against the USD). The majority are found in
New South Wales (262), closely followed by Victoria with 169.

When the Model 3 arrives, you can expect that figure to increase
significantly.



On another tack if every car was electric and huge advances were not
made in electric supply would that work, there are already parts of
the UK that recon they will mandate all electric in the not too
distant future, that will be fun.

**Can you suggest another alternative? Unless people in Australia's
large cities switch to public transport in droves, then we are all in
for a great deal of trouble. EVs can mitigate some of the problem.


If all cars were electric they would probably have to figure out how
to tax highly the electricity used to charge them while not the
existing system ( maybe distance based rego?)and what to do with the
collapse of the existing fuel supply system

**You're thinking vertically. Every car will have a system that
communicates with the relevant authority and will be charged by distance
travelled on most roads. The existing fuel supply system won't collapse
overnight.

 

[FMurtz]

Trevor Wilson wrote:

On 13/09/2017 11:24 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Sylvia Else wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:05 AM, FMurtz wrote:
What would they do with a thousand Teslas in one city?

Dunno.

But one thing is certain, once the number of electric cars starts to
impact on petrol sales, governments will be looking to tax them so as to
recover the lost duty and gst revenue.

Sylvia.

I hesitate to put URLs like this Because if they do not agree with
Trevor's take the articles are bullshit.

http://reneweconomy.com.au/how-many-teslas-does-it-take-to-black-out-an-apartment-block-13934/


**You stupid lying cunt. I just explained that there are already more
than 1,000 EVs in an Australian city (Sydney). I made no other claims.

You keep changing the goalposts, my original post specified TESLAS for a
reason, Not interested in any others in this discussion.

Will lots of EVs cause problems in Sydney?

Possibly. If nothing changes.

However, there is another way to view the situation:

Part of the present problem with electricity generation in Australia is
that the electricity generation industry is in a 'death spiral'. People
are using less power, because electricity costs more and appliances are
more efficient. Because less power is being used, power companies have
to raise prices to maintain profitability. A large increase in EVs will
increase electricity demand and require that power companies deliver
more power, thus increasing their profitability.

So, rather than being a bad thing, more EVs may be beneficial for
everyone. Particularly since the uptake is so gradual.

Now, what are the further ramifications?

The petrol/oil industry will likely enter it's 'death spiral' as more
people switch over to EVs and H2 powered vehicles.

 

[Trevor Wilson]

On 14/09/2017 10:40 AM, ~misfit~ wrote:

Once upon a time on usenet Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 13/09/2017 9:03 AM, Computer Nerd Kev wrote:
Trevor Wilson <trevor@spamblockrageaudio.com.au> wrote:
On 12/09/2017 7:02 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 3:09 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:38 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:05 AM, FMurtz wrote:
What would they do with a thousand Teslas in one city?

**They're already here. Tesla is tight-lipped on sales data,
but sell approximately 1,000 cars per year. Let's say Tesla
have sold 1,000 cars
into Sydney, as Sydney is a significant portion of EV sales.

Then there's the others:

Nissan Leaf - 635 cars sold. Let's say, 200 are in Sydney.
Audi A3 e-tron - 128 cars sold. Let's say, 40 in Sydney.
Mitsubishi PHEV - 1,665 cars sold. Let's say, 550 in Sydney.
There are others, but figures are tiny.

So, there are at least 1,200 pure EVs in Sydney and probably a
similar
number in Melbourne. There are more PHEVs as well. Many are
most likely
operated solely on electricity.

Your point is?

Up to 40 amps for maybe 10 hours a day

**Yes. And your point is? I just showed that there are more
than 1,200 pure EVs (and quite a few PHEVs) in Sydney and
probably Melbourne right now. Every time I drive around Sydney,
I see at least one Tesla and frequently 2 or 3. There are more
coming.
we could handle a few

most EVs take a lot less than teslas and if there was a thousand
teslas in sydney itself and similar amounts in other suburbs it
would cost AGL a fortune

**I'll say it again: THERE ALREADY ARE MORE THAN 1,200 EVs IN
SYDNEY, RIGHT NOW!


**I'll say it again: TESLAs

**And I will say again: There are AT LEAST 1,000 Teslas in Sydney
right now. When the Model 3 arrives, you can expect that figure to
increase significantly.

Which will make AGL very happy when they decide to raise their prices
again.

**Perhaps. Perhaps not. Either way, more electricity will need to be
supplied, which may allow power companies to climb out of their death
spiral.


On another tack if every car was electric and huge advances were
not made in electric supply would that work, there are already
parts of the UK that recon they will mandate all electric in the
not too distant future, that will be fun.

**Can you suggest another alternative? Unless people in
Australia's large cities switch to public transport in droves,
then we are all in for a great deal of trouble. EVs can mitigate
some of the problem.
If all cars were electric they would probably have to figure out
how to tax highly the electricity used to charge them while not
the existing system ( maybe distance based rego?)and what to do
with the collapse of the existing fuel supply system

**You're thinking vertically. Every car will have a system that
communicates with the relevant authority and will be charged by
distance travelled on most roads.

I hope not, I don't want my car spying on me (though I'm probably
one of the very few who usually don't have another device spying on
them at the same time anyway).

**Then you would be one of the very few motorists that doesn't use a
toll tag. That would make driving around any of Australia's major
cities extremely inconvenient.


It seems to me that AGL have solved the government's problem for
them in this regard. Their new $1/day rate is charged on a specific
electric car outlet of a special power meter which has to be
installed in order to access the deal. The government just has to
bill AGL, and all those who copy them, for a percentage of what
their meters charge and the system is back to normal again.

The existing fuel supply system won't collapse overnight.

Yep, for as long as our civilisation keeps itself together I doubt
that it will ever become impossible for people like us to buy fuel,
but at some point soon it probably won't make sense to keep using it
for personal everyday transport.

**Keep imagining that. The fact is that oil is going to become a lot
more expensive and H2 and electricity will be cheaper. The oil
companies will be caught in their own death spiral in a few years.
Eventually, petrol/oil will be so expensive that buying an electric
or H2 powered car will be the preferred way for the vast majority.

What about agricultural and earthmoving machinery?

**H2.

Ocean-going ships and
> airliners?

**H2 or synthesised fuel. Make no mistake: the era of cheap airline
travel will soon be over. Ships are easier. They can run on almost
anything. Nuclear energy would be ideal.

Will they all go electric too?

**Ships are already Diesel/electric. So, they're half way there.


If not what will happen to the

petrol fraction of the oil that is left over when oil is refined for thier
use?

**Oil will still be in use for a long time. It's just going to get a lot
more expensive.


(After all Carl Benz chose petrol to power his original ICE because it

was so very cheap as there was little use for it back then.)

https://youtu.be/jntsT0BdxDw?t=8m08s

The whole video is well worth a watch - and the channel a subscribe.

**I'll have a look a bit later.


--
Trevor Wilson
www.rageaudio.com.au

 

[Sylvia Else]

On 14/09/2017 7:31 AM, Trevor Wilson wrote:

On 13/09/2017 11:24 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Sylvia Else wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:05 AM, FMurtz wrote:
What would they do with a thousand Teslas in one city?

Dunno.

But one thing is certain, once the number of electric cars starts to
impact on petrol sales, governments will be looking to tax them so as to
recover the lost duty and gst revenue.

Sylvia.

I hesitate to put URLs like this Because if they do not agree with
Trevor's take the articles are bullshit.

http://reneweconomy.com.au/how-many-teslas-does-it-take-to-black-out-an-apartment-block-13934/


**You stupid lying cunt. I just explained that there are already more
than 1,000 EVs in an Australian city (Sydney). I made no other claims.

Will lots of EVs cause problems in Sydney?

Possibly. If nothing changes.

However, there is another way to view the situation:

Part of the present problem with electricity generation in Australia is
that the electricity generation industry is in a 'death spiral'. People
are using less power, because electricity costs more and appliances are
more efficient. Because less power is being used, power companies have
to raise prices to maintain profitability. A large increase in EVs will
increase electricity demand and require that power companies deliver
more power, thus increasing their profitability.

There's nothing to stop a person recharging their EV from a suitably
large array of PV cells, and using the grid only when the sun didn't
shine. Essentially then, they'll just be part of the death spiral.

Sylvia.

 

[Trevor Wilson]

On 14/09/2017 8:03 PM, Sylvia Else wrote:

On 14/09/2017 7:31 AM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 13/09/2017 11:24 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Sylvia Else wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:05 AM, FMurtz wrote:
What would they do with a thousand Teslas in one city?

Dunno.

But one thing is certain, once the number of electric cars starts to
impact on petrol sales, governments will be looking to tax them so
as to
recover the lost duty and gst revenue.

Sylvia.

I hesitate to put URLs like this Because if they do not agree with
Trevor's take the articles are bullshit.

http://reneweconomy.com.au/how-many-teslas-does-it-take-to-black-out-an-apartment-block-13934/


**You stupid lying cunt. I just explained that there are already more
than 1,000 EVs in an Australian city (Sydney). I made no other claims.

Will lots of EVs cause problems in Sydney?

Possibly. If nothing changes.

However, there is another way to view the situation:

Part of the present problem with electricity generation in Australia
is that the electricity generation industry is in a 'death spiral'.
People are using less power, because electricity costs more and
appliances are more efficient. Because less power is being used, power
companies have to raise prices to maintain profitability. A large
increase in EVs will increase electricity demand and require that
power companies deliver more power, thus increasing their profitability.

There's nothing to stop a person recharging their EV from a suitably
large array of PV cells, and using the grid only when the sun didn't
shine. Essentially then, they'll just be part of the death spiral.

Sylvia.

**Bang-on Sylvia. My next car (after the one to be delivered in January)
will likely be 100% electric, probably mostly self-driving. I can fit
around 4kW of Solar PV on my garage roof (North oriented). By the time I
buy my electric car, Solar PV will be almost free. 4kW of Solar PV would
allow me to drive an EV for 90% of the time free of cost (electricity).
Surplus power will be directed to a battery bank and then back into the
grid, for any unused electrons. Maybe I'll just share with my next door
neighbour. That said, it is also likely I will be in the minority, given
the proliferation of home units in Sydney nowadays. All those people
will have to plug-in.

--
Trevor Wilson
www.rageaudio.com.au

 

[FMurtz]

Sylvia Else wrote:

On 14/09/2017 7:31 AM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 13/09/2017 11:24 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Sylvia Else wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:05 AM, FMurtz wrote:
What would they do with a thousand Teslas in one city?

Dunno.

But one thing is certain, once the number of electric cars starts to
impact on petrol sales, governments will be looking to tax them so
as to
recover the lost duty and gst revenue.

Sylvia.

I hesitate to put URLs like this Because if they do not agree with
Trevor's take the articles are bullshit.

http://reneweconomy.com.au/how-many-teslas-does-it-take-to-black-out-an-apartment-block-13934/


**You stupid lying cunt. I just explained that there are already more
than 1,000 EVs in an Australian city (Sydney). I made no other claims.

Will lots of EVs cause problems in Sydney?

Possibly. If nothing changes.

However, there is another way to view the situation:

Part of the present problem with electricity generation in Australia
is that the electricity generation industry is in a 'death spiral'.
People are using less power, because electricity costs more and
appliances are more efficient. Because less power is being used, power
companies have to raise prices to maintain profitability. A large
increase in EVs will increase electricity demand and require that
power companies deliver more power, thus increasing their profitability.

There's nothing to stop a person recharging their EV from a suitably
large array of PV cells, and using the grid only when the sun didn't
shine. Essentially then, they'll just be part of the death spiral.

Sylvia.

Except that in the case of a tesla you may not have a yard big enough
for the array. and if you only drove during the day you would
probably need a spare changeable set of batteries without the grid, or
if using the grid it would be most of the time

 

[keithr0]

On 9/14/2017 2:46 PM, Trevor Wilson wrote:

On 14/09/2017 10:40 AM, ~misfit~ wrote:
Once upon a time on usenet Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 13/09/2017 9:03 AM, Computer Nerd Kev wrote:
Trevor Wilson <trevor@spamblockrageaudio.com.au> wrote:
On 12/09/2017 7:02 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 3:09 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:38 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:05 AM, FMurtz wrote:
What would they do with a thousand Teslas in one city?

**They're already here. Tesla is tight-lipped on sales data,
but sell approximately 1,000 cars per year. Let's say Tesla
have sold 1,000 cars
into Sydney, as Sydney is a significant portion of EV sales.

Then there's the others:

Nissan Leaf - 635 cars sold. Let's say, 200 are in Sydney.
Audi A3 e-tron - 128 cars sold. Let's say, 40 in Sydney.
Mitsubishi PHEV - 1,665 cars sold. Let's say, 550 in Sydney.
There are others, but figures are tiny.

So, if there are 1200 EVs in Sydney and 790 aren't Teslas, then there
can't be more than 410 Teslas in Sydney by your figures. I'd think that
would be on the high side too, here in SEQ, I've seen 2.

So, there are at least 1,200 pure EVs in Sydney and probably a
similar
number in Melbourne. There are more PHEVs as well. Many are
most likely
operated solely on electricity.

Your point is?

Up to 40 amps for maybe 10 hours a day

**Yes. And your point is? I just showed that there are more
than 1,200 pure EVs (and quite a few PHEVs) in Sydney and
probably Melbourne right now. Every time I drive around Sydney,
I see at least one Tesla and frequently 2 or 3. There are more
coming.
we could handle a few

most EVs take a lot less than teslas and if there was a thousand
teslas in sydney itself and similar amounts in other suburbs it
would cost AGL a fortune

**I'll say it again: THERE ALREADY ARE MORE THAN 1,200 EVs IN
SYDNEY, RIGHT NOW!


**I'll say it again: TESLAs

**And I will say again: There are AT LEAST 1,000 Teslas in Sydney
right now. When the Model 3 arrives, you can expect that figure to
increase significantly.

Which will make AGL very happy when they decide to raise their prices
again.

**Perhaps. Perhaps not. Either way, more electricity will need to be
supplied, which may allow power companies to climb out of their death
spiral.


On another tack if every car was electric and huge advances were
not made in electric supply would that work, there are already
parts of the UK that recon they will mandate all electric in the
not too distant future, that will be fun.

**Can you suggest another alternative? Unless people in
Australia's large cities switch to public transport in droves,
then we are all in for a great deal of trouble. EVs can mitigate
some of the problem.
If all cars were electric they would probably have to figure out
how to tax highly the electricity used to charge them while not
the existing system ( maybe distance based rego?)and what to do
with the collapse of the existing fuel supply system

**You're thinking vertically. Every car will have a system that
communicates with the relevant authority and will be charged by
distance travelled on most roads.

I hope not, I don't want my car spying on me (though I'm probably
one of the very few who usually don't have another device spying on
them at the same time anyway).

**Then you would be one of the very few motorists that doesn't use a
toll tag. That would make driving around any of Australia's major
cities extremely inconvenient.


It seems to me that AGL have solved the government's problem for
them in this regard. Their new $1/day rate is charged on a specific
electric car outlet of a special power meter which has to be
installed in order to access the deal. The government just has to
bill AGL, and all those who copy them, for a percentage of what
their meters charge and the system is back to normal again.

The existing fuel supply system won't collapse overnight.

Yep, for as long as our civilisation keeps itself together I doubt
that it will ever become impossible for people like us to buy fuel,
but at some point soon it probably won't make sense to keep using it
for personal everyday transport.

**Keep imagining that. The fact is that oil is going to become a lot
more expensive and H2 and electricity will be cheaper. The oil
companies will be caught in their own death spiral in a few years.
Eventually, petrol/oil will be so expensive that buying an electric
or H2 powered car will be the preferred way for the vast majority.

What about agricultural and earthmoving machinery?

**H2.

Ocean-going ships and
airliners?

**H2 or synthesised fuel. Make no mistake: the era of cheap airline
travel will soon be over.

The energy density (in Wh/L) of H2 even compressed to 700bar is less
than 1/6 of jet fuel which means that airlines would need fuel tanks 6
times the size of current ones not to mention strong enough to contain
700bar. That would present aircraft designers with some problems.

Ships are easier. They can run on almost
anything. Nuclear energy would be ideal.

Are you happy to have the nuclear waste end up near you?

Will they all go electric too?

**Ships are already Diesel/electric. So, they're half way there.

The electric part is only the transmission, the energy still comes from oil.

If not what will happen to the
petrol fraction of the oil that is left over when oil is refined for
thier
use?

**Oil will still be in use for a long time. It's just going to get a lot
more expensive.


(After all Carl Benz chose petrol to power his original ICE because it
was so very cheap as there was little use for it back then.)

https://youtu.be/jntsT0BdxDw?t=8m08s

The whole video is well worth a watch - and the channel a subscribe.


**I'll have a look a bit later.

 

[Sylvia Else]

On 14/09/2017 10:09 PM, FMurtz wrote:

Sylvia Else wrote:
On 14/09/2017 7:31 AM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 13/09/2017 11:24 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Sylvia Else wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:05 AM, FMurtz wrote:
What would they do with a thousand Teslas in one city?

Dunno.

But one thing is certain, once the number of electric cars starts to
impact on petrol sales, governments will be looking to tax them so
as to
recover the lost duty and gst revenue.

Sylvia.

I hesitate to put URLs like this Because if they do not agree with
Trevor's take the articles are bullshit.

http://reneweconomy.com.au/how-many-teslas-does-it-take-to-black-out-an-apartment-block-13934/



**You stupid lying cunt. I just explained that there are already more
than 1,000 EVs in an Australian city (Sydney). I made no other claims.

Will lots of EVs cause problems in Sydney?

Possibly. If nothing changes.

However, there is another way to view the situation:

Part of the present problem with electricity generation in Australia
is that the electricity generation industry is in a 'death spiral'.
People are using less power, because electricity costs more and
appliances are more efficient. Because less power is being used, power
companies have to raise prices to maintain profitability. A large
increase in EVs will increase electricity demand and require that
power companies deliver more power, thus increasing their profitability.

There's nothing to stop a person recharging their EV from a suitably
large array of PV cells, and using the grid only when the sun didn't
shine. Essentially then, they'll just be part of the death spiral.

Sylvia.

Except that in the case of a tesla you may not have a yard big enough
for the array. and if you only drove during the day you would
probably need a spare changeable set of batteries without the grid, or
if using the grid it would be most of the time

According to the specs on Wikipedia, the Tesla will give you about
5km/kWh. A domestic solar array should have no difficulty providing it
with a useful range (say 50km per day), except that people would likely
want to be using it during the day, not charging it.

Charging batteries (being not swapable) during the day, and then
charging the Tesla from them during the night should work OK, albeit
with some inefficiency.

Sylvia.

 

[FMurtz]

Sylvia Else wrote:

On 14/09/2017 10:09 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Sylvia Else wrote:
On 14/09/2017 7:31 AM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 13/09/2017 11:24 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Sylvia Else wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:05 AM, FMurtz wrote:
What would they do with a thousand Teslas in one city?

Dunno.

But one thing is certain, once the number of electric cars starts to
impact on petrol sales, governments will be looking to tax them so
as to
recover the lost duty and gst revenue.

Sylvia.

I hesitate to put URLs like this Because if they do not agree with
Trevor's take the articles are bullshit.

http://reneweconomy.com.au/how-many-teslas-does-it-take-to-black-out-an-apartment-block-13934/



**You stupid lying cunt. I just explained that there are already more
than 1,000 EVs in an Australian city (Sydney). I made no other claims.

Will lots of EVs cause problems in Sydney?

Possibly. If nothing changes.

However, there is another way to view the situation:

Part of the present problem with electricity generation in Australia
is that the electricity generation industry is in a 'death spiral'.
People are using less power, because electricity costs more and
appliances are more efficient. Because less power is being used, power
companies have to raise prices to maintain profitability. A large
increase in EVs will increase electricity demand and require that
power companies deliver more power, thus increasing their
profitability.

There's nothing to stop a person recharging their EV from a suitably
large array of PV cells, and using the grid only when the sun didn't
shine. Essentially then, they'll just be part of the death spiral.

Sylvia.

Except that in the case of a tesla you may not have a yard big enough
for the array. and if you only drove during the day you would
probably need a spare changeable set of batteries without the grid, or
if using the grid it would be most of the time

According to the specs on Wikipedia, the Tesla will give you about
5km/kWh. A domestic solar array should have no difficulty providing it
with a useful range (say 50km per day), except that people would likely
want to be using it during the day, not charging it.

If you only drove such a small distance maybe but if you drive it 300
and with air con and a bit leadfooted it would be different.
If I go near the city I do 200 to 300 in a day may be twice a week Just
to day I went to Supercheap Auto 30 KM each way for a pot of paint.
I would love to have a Tesla but if I could afford it I would probably
have the preferred three phase in my mansion.
The tesla uses maybe three times the charge rate to fully charge than
most of the other fiddly EVs

Charging batteries (being not swapable) during the day, and then
charging the Tesla from them during the night should work OK, albeit
with some inefficiency.

Sylvia.

 

[Trevor Wilson]

On 14/09/2017 10:42 PM, keithr0 wrote:

On 9/14/2017 2:46 PM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 14/09/2017 10:40 AM, ~misfit~ wrote:
Once upon a time on usenet Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 13/09/2017 9:03 AM, Computer Nerd Kev wrote:
Trevor Wilson <trevor@spamblockrageaudio.com.au> wrote:
On 12/09/2017 7:02 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 3:09 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:38 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:05 AM, FMurtz wrote:
What would they do with a thousand Teslas in one city?

**They're already here. Tesla is tight-lipped on sales data,
but sell approximately 1,000 cars per year. Let's say Tesla
have sold 1,000 cars
into Sydney, as Sydney is a significant portion of EV sales.

Then there's the others:

Nissan Leaf - 635 cars sold. Let's say, 200 are in Sydney.
Audi A3 e-tron - 128 cars sold. Let's say, 40 in Sydney.
Mitsubishi PHEV - 1,665 cars sold. Let's say, 550 in Sydney.
There are others, but figures are tiny.

So, if there are 1200 EVs in Sydney and 790 aren't Teslas, then there
can't be more than 410 Teslas in Sydney by your figures. I'd think that
would be on the high side too, here in SEQ, I've seen 2.

So, there are at least 1,200 pure EVs in Sydney and probably a
similar
number in Melbourne. There are more PHEVs as well. Many are
most likely
operated solely on electricity.

Your point is?

Up to 40 amps for maybe 10 hours a day

**Yes. And your point is? I just showed that there are more
than 1,200 pure EVs (and quite a few PHEVs) in Sydney and
probably Melbourne right now. Every time I drive around Sydney,
I see at least one Tesla and frequently 2 or 3. There are more
coming.
we could handle a few

most EVs take a lot less than teslas and if there was a thousand
teslas in sydney itself and similar amounts in other suburbs it
would cost AGL a fortune

**I'll say it again: THERE ALREADY ARE MORE THAN 1,200 EVs IN
SYDNEY, RIGHT NOW!


**I'll say it again: TESLAs

**And I will say again: There are AT LEAST 1,000 Teslas in Sydney
right now. When the Model 3 arrives, you can expect that figure to
increase significantly.

Which will make AGL very happy when they decide to raise their prices
again.

**Perhaps. Perhaps not. Either way, more electricity will need to be
supplied, which may allow power companies to climb out of their death
spiral.


On another tack if every car was electric and huge advances were
not made in electric supply would that work, there are already
parts of the UK that recon they will mandate all electric in the
not too distant future, that will be fun.

**Can you suggest another alternative? Unless people in
Australia's large cities switch to public transport in droves,
then we are all in for a great deal of trouble. EVs can mitigate
some of the problem.
If all cars were electric they would probably have to figure out
how to tax highly the electricity used to charge them while not
the existing system ( maybe distance based rego?)and what to do
with the collapse of the existing fuel supply system

**You're thinking vertically. Every car will have a system that
communicates with the relevant authority and will be charged by
distance travelled on most roads.

I hope not, I don't want my car spying on me (though I'm probably
one of the very few who usually don't have another device spying on
them at the same time anyway).

**Then you would be one of the very few motorists that doesn't use a
toll tag. That would make driving around any of Australia's major
cities extremely inconvenient.


It seems to me that AGL have solved the government's problem for
them in this regard. Their new $1/day rate is charged on a specific
electric car outlet of a special power meter which has to be
installed in order to access the deal. The government just has to
bill AGL, and all those who copy them, for a percentage of what
their meters charge and the system is back to normal again.

The existing fuel supply system won't collapse overnight.

Yep, for as long as our civilisation keeps itself together I doubt
that it will ever become impossible for people like us to buy fuel,
but at some point soon it probably won't make sense to keep using it
for personal everyday transport.

**Keep imagining that. The fact is that oil is going to become a lot
more expensive and H2 and electricity will be cheaper. The oil
companies will be caught in their own death spiral in a few years.
Eventually, petrol/oil will be so expensive that buying an electric
or H2 powered car will be the preferred way for the vast majority.

What about agricultural and earthmoving machinery?

**H2.

 Ocean-going ships and
airliners?

**H2 or synthesised fuel. Make no mistake: the era of cheap airline
travel will soon be over.

The energy density (in Wh/L) of H2 even compressed to 700bar is less
than 1/6 of jet fuel which means that airlines would need fuel tanks 6
times the size of current ones not to mention strong enough to contain
700bar. That would present aircraft designers with some problems.

**Indeed. Porous metal storage systems present some promise, but you're
correct: Energy density is a major drawback. Synthesised fuel appears to
be the only practical solution. Either way, airline travel is likely to
be much more expensive in the medium term.

Ships are easier. They can run on almost
anything. Nuclear energy would be ideal.

Are you happy to have the nuclear waste end up near you?

**I made no comment on my personal feelings on the matter of nukes. Just
logic. Nukes make a great deal of sense for large ships. Personally, you
would not catch me on a ship (they're just confined spaces where disease
can run rampant), nor supporting nuclear energy generation (in it's
present form). The waste issue is simply impossible to ignore. Despite
what it's proponents claim.

 Will they all go electric too?

**Ships are already Diesel/electric. So, they're half way there.

The electric part is only the transmission, the energy still comes from
oil.

**Indeed. However, ships could be powered by pretty much anything.
Modern turbines can be operated on pretty much any combustible material.
That was a big selling feature of the M1 Abrams Tank.

 If not what will happen to the
petrol fraction of the oil that is left over when oil is refined for
thier
use?

**Oil will still be in use for a long time. It's just going to get a lot
more expensive.


 (After all Carl Benz chose petrol to power his original ICE because it
was so very cheap as there was little use for it back then.)

https://youtu.be/jntsT0BdxDw?t=8m08s

The whole video is well worth a watch - and the channel a subscribe.


**I'll have a look a bit later.

--
Trevor Wilson
www.rageaudio.com.au

 

[Trevor Wilson]

On 14/09/2017 10:42 PM, keithr0 wrote:

On 9/14/2017 2:46 PM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 14/09/2017 10:40 AM, ~misfit~ wrote:
Once upon a time on usenet Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 13/09/2017 9:03 AM, Computer Nerd Kev wrote:
Trevor Wilson <trevor@spamblockrageaudio.com.au> wrote:
On 12/09/2017 7:02 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 3:09 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:38 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:05 AM, FMurtz wrote:
What would they do with a thousand Teslas in one city?

**They're already here. Tesla is tight-lipped on sales data,
but sell approximately 1,000 cars per year. Let's say Tesla
have sold 1,000 cars
into Sydney, as Sydney is a significant portion of EV sales.

Then there's the others:

Nissan Leaf - 635 cars sold. Let's say, 200 are in Sydney.
Audi A3 e-tron - 128 cars sold. Let's say, 40 in Sydney.
Mitsubishi PHEV - 1,665 cars sold. Let's say, 550 in Sydney.
There are others, but figures are tiny.

So, if there are 1200 EVs in Sydney and 790 aren't Teslas, then there
can't be more than 410 Teslas in Sydney by your figures. I'd think that
would be on the high side too, here in SEQ, I've seen 2.

**The Mitsubishi PHEV is not, strictly, an EV. It has an IC engine. That
said, my estimate of Teslas in Sydney was based on the fact that
approximately 1,000 Teslas per year have made it to Australia. Given the
likelihood that Sydney is the biggest market. I estimate at least 1,000
are on Sydney roads. SEQ is a backwater. When I drive around Sydney, I
see AT LEAST 1 every time I drive. When I go to the Eastern suburbs, the
minimum sighting runs to 3 or more. Hell, even down here in Oyster Bay
(population - 5,500), there are (at least) two Teslas - A P90 and a
Model X. Last time I drove to Miranda Westfield, I parked beside a P90.
In fact, I see more P90 Teslas than Porsche Panameras. Just yesterday, I
drove to Earlwood (about 25kms each way) and spotted 2 Teslas. And trust
me: The drive to Earlwood bypasses all the fancy postcodes. They appear
to be quite popular here in the Emerald City.


--
Trevor Wilson
www.rageaudio.com.au

 

[Clifford Heath]

On 15/09/17 00:44, FMurtz wrote:

Sylvia Else wrote:
According to the specs on Wikipedia, the Tesla will give you about
5km/kWh. A domestic solar array should have no difficulty providing it
with a useful range (say 50km per day), except that people would likely
want to be using it during the day, not charging it.

If you only drove such a small distance maybe but if you drive it 300
and with air con and a bit leadfooted it would be different.

Not sure that the lead foot is much of a problem because you
get the energy back when braking.

 

[Sylvia Else]

On 15/09/2017 8:47 AM, Clifford Heath wrote:

On 15/09/17 00:44, FMurtz wrote:
Sylvia Else wrote:
According to the specs on Wikipedia, the Tesla will give you about
5km/kWh. A domestic solar array should have no difficulty providing it
with a useful range (say 50km per day), except that people would likely
want to be using it during the day, not charging it.

If you only drove such a small distance maybe but if you drive it 300
and with air con and a bit leadfooted it would be different.

Not sure that the lead foot is much of a problem because you
get the energy back when braking.

The situation depends in part on whether the lead-footedness results in
a higher top speed, or just higher acceleration to the same speed.

In the former case there are increased drag losses, which are not recovered.

Even in the latter case, the vehicle spends more time at a higher speed,
which will result in higher drag losses, though not so much.

How much difference it makes in practice at the low speeds involved in
start-stop driving is another matter.

Sylvia.

 

[keithr0]

On 9/15/2017 6:57 AM, Trevor Wilson wrote:

On 14/09/2017 10:42 PM, keithr0 wrote:
On 9/14/2017 2:46 PM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 14/09/2017 10:40 AM, ~misfit~ wrote:
Once upon a time on usenet Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 13/09/2017 9:03 AM, Computer Nerd Kev wrote:
Trevor Wilson <trevor@spamblockrageaudio.com.au> wrote:
On 12/09/2017 7:02 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 3:09 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:38 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:05 AM, FMurtz wrote:
What would they do with a thousand Teslas in one city?

**They're already here. Tesla is tight-lipped on sales data,
but sell approximately 1,000 cars per year. Let's say Tesla
have sold 1,000 cars
into Sydney, as Sydney is a significant portion of EV sales.

Then there's the others:

Nissan Leaf - 635 cars sold. Let's say, 200 are in Sydney.
Audi A3 e-tron - 128 cars sold. Let's say, 40 in Sydney.
Mitsubishi PHEV - 1,665 cars sold. Let's say, 550 in Sydney.
There are others, but figures are tiny.

So, if there are 1200 EVs in Sydney and 790 aren't Teslas, then there
can't be more than 410 Teslas in Sydney by your figures. I'd think
that would be on the high side too, here in SEQ, I've seen 2.

So, there are at least 1,200 pure EVs in Sydney and probably a
similar
number in Melbourne. There are more PHEVs as well. Many are
most likely
operated solely on electricity.

Your point is?

Up to 40 amps for maybe 10 hours a day

**Yes. And your point is? I just showed that there are more
than 1,200 pure EVs (and quite a few PHEVs) in Sydney and
probably Melbourne right now. Every time I drive around Sydney,
I see at least one Tesla and frequently 2 or 3. There are more
coming.
we could handle a few

most EVs take a lot less than teslas and if there was a thousand
teslas in sydney itself and similar amounts in other suburbs it
would cost AGL a fortune

**I'll say it again: THERE ALREADY ARE MORE THAN 1,200 EVs IN
SYDNEY, RIGHT NOW!


**I'll say it again: TESLAs

**And I will say again: There are AT LEAST 1,000 Teslas in Sydney
right now. When the Model 3 arrives, you can expect that figure to
increase significantly.

Which will make AGL very happy when they decide to raise their prices
again.

**Perhaps. Perhaps not. Either way, more electricity will need to be
supplied, which may allow power companies to climb out of their death
spiral.


On another tack if every car was electric and huge advances were
not made in electric supply would that work, there are already
parts of the UK that recon they will mandate all electric in the
not too distant future, that will be fun.

**Can you suggest another alternative? Unless people in
Australia's large cities switch to public transport in droves,
then we are all in for a great deal of trouble. EVs can mitigate
some of the problem.
If all cars were electric they would probably have to figure out
how to tax highly the electricity used to charge them while not
the existing system ( maybe distance based rego?)and what to do
with the collapse of the existing fuel supply system

**You're thinking vertically. Every car will have a system that
communicates with the relevant authority and will be charged by
distance travelled on most roads.

I hope not, I don't want my car spying on me (though I'm probably
one of the very few who usually don't have another device spying on
them at the same time anyway).

**Then you would be one of the very few motorists that doesn't use a
toll tag. That would make driving around any of Australia's major
cities extremely inconvenient.


It seems to me that AGL have solved the government's problem for
them in this regard. Their new $1/day rate is charged on a specific
electric car outlet of a special power meter which has to be
installed in order to access the deal. The government just has to
bill AGL, and all those who copy them, for a percentage of what
their meters charge and the system is back to normal again.

The existing fuel supply system won't collapse overnight.

Yep, for as long as our civilisation keeps itself together I doubt
that it will ever become impossible for people like us to buy fuel,
but at some point soon it probably won't make sense to keep using it
for personal everyday transport.

**Keep imagining that. The fact is that oil is going to become a lot
more expensive and H2 and electricity will be cheaper. The oil
companies will be caught in their own death spiral in a few years.
Eventually, petrol/oil will be so expensive that buying an electric
or H2 powered car will be the preferred way for the vast majority.

What about agricultural and earthmoving machinery?

**H2.

Ocean-going ships and
airliners?

**H2 or synthesised fuel. Make no mistake: the era of cheap airline
travel will soon be over.

The energy density (in Wh/L) of H2 even compressed to 700bar is less
than 1/6 of jet fuel which means that airlines would need fuel tanks 6
times the size of current ones not to mention strong enough to contain
700bar. That would present aircraft designers with some problems.

**Indeed. Porous metal storage systems present some promise, but you're
correct: Energy density is a major drawback. Synthesised fuel appears to
be the only practical solution. Either way, airline travel is likely to
be much more expensive in the medium term.


Ships are easier. They can run on almost
anything. Nuclear energy would be ideal.

Are you happy to have the nuclear waste end up near you?

**I made no comment on my personal feelings on the matter of nukes. Just
logic. Nukes make a great deal of sense for large ships.

It has been tried once (other than Russian nuclear icebreakers) that
ship now lies unused without her reactor as the project proved
impractical. Maybe sometime in the future, better reactors may make it
practical but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Personally, you would not catch me on a ship (they're just confined
spaces where disease can run rampant)

A rather over-rated hazard, I've spent 60 days aboard ships in the last
two years without any sort of problem. It like aircraft crashes, when it
happens its all over the news, while lots more people are dying on the
roads. At this moment all over the country are quietly dying from 'flu,
we lost a friend to it this week.

nor supporting nuclear energy generation (in it's
present form). The waste issue is simply impossible to ignore. Despite
what it's proponents claim.


Will they all go electric too?

**Ships are already Diesel/electric. So, they're half way there.

The electric part is only the transmission, the energy still comes
from oil.

**Indeed. However, ships could be powered by pretty much anything.
Modern turbines can be operated on pretty much any combustible material.
That was a big selling feature of the M1 Abrams Tank.

Not many civilian ships use turbines, the last two that I have traveled
on had a total of 7 diesels plus a gas turbine. The chief engineer told
us though that the turbine is only used in fragile ecological areas
because it uses a huge amount of fuel. The ship normally ran on 2 buses
each driven by two v16 and one V12 diesel each bus producing about 5MW.

 

[Trevor Wilson]

On 15/09/2017 5:10 PM, keithr0 wrote:

On 9/15/2017 6:57 AM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 14/09/2017 10:42 PM, keithr0 wrote:
On 9/14/2017 2:46 PM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 14/09/2017 10:40 AM, ~misfit~ wrote:
Once upon a time on usenet Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 13/09/2017 9:03 AM, Computer Nerd Kev wrote:
Trevor Wilson <trevor@spamblockrageaudio.com.au> wrote:
On 12/09/2017 7:02 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 3:09 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:38 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:05 AM, FMurtz wrote:
What would they do with a thousand Teslas in one city?

**They're already here. Tesla is tight-lipped on sales data,
but sell approximately 1,000 cars per year. Let's say Tesla
have sold 1,000 cars
into Sydney, as Sydney is a significant portion of EV sales.

Then there's the others:

Nissan Leaf - 635 cars sold. Let's say, 200 are in Sydney.
Audi A3 e-tron - 128 cars sold. Let's say, 40 in Sydney.
Mitsubishi PHEV - 1,665 cars sold. Let's say, 550 in Sydney.
There are others, but figures are tiny.

So, if there are 1200 EVs in Sydney and 790 aren't Teslas, then there
can't be more than 410 Teslas in Sydney by your figures. I'd think
that would be on the high side too, here in SEQ, I've seen 2.

So, there are at least 1,200 pure EVs in Sydney and
probably a
similar
number in Melbourne. There are more PHEVs as well. Many are
most likely
operated solely on electricity.

Your point is?

Up to 40 amps for maybe 10 hours a day

**Yes. And your point is? I just showed that there are more
than 1,200 pure EVs (and quite a few PHEVs) in Sydney and
probably Melbourne right now. Every time I drive around Sydney,
I see at least one Tesla and frequently 2 or 3. There are more
coming.
we could handle a few

most EVs take a lot less than teslas and if there was a thousand
teslas in sydney itself and similar amounts in other suburbs it
would cost AGL a fortune

**I'll say it again: THERE ALREADY ARE MORE THAN 1,200 EVs IN
SYDNEY, RIGHT NOW!


**I'll say it again: TESLAs

**And I will say again: There are AT LEAST 1,000 Teslas in Sydney
right now. When the Model 3 arrives, you can expect that figure to
increase significantly.

Which will make AGL very happy when they decide to raise their
prices
again.

**Perhaps. Perhaps not. Either way, more electricity will need to be
supplied, which may allow power companies to climb out of their death
spiral.


On another tack if every car was electric and huge advances were
not made in electric supply would that work, there are already
parts of the UK that recon they will mandate all electric in the
not too distant future, that will be fun.

**Can you suggest another alternative? Unless people in
Australia's large cities switch to public transport in droves,
then we are all in for a great deal of trouble. EVs can mitigate
some of the problem.
If all cars were electric they would probably have to figure out
how to tax highly the electricity used to charge them while not
the existing system ( maybe distance based rego?)and what to do
with the collapse of the existing fuel supply system

**You're thinking vertically. Every car will have a system that
communicates with the relevant authority and will be charged by
distance travelled on most roads.

I hope not, I don't want my car spying on me (though I'm probably
one of the very few who usually don't have another device spying on
them at the same time anyway).

**Then you would be one of the very few motorists that doesn't use a
toll tag. That would make driving around any of Australia's major
cities extremely inconvenient.


It seems to me that AGL have solved the government's problem for
them in this regard. Their new $1/day rate is charged on a specific
electric car outlet of a special power meter which has to be
installed in order to access the deal. The government just has to
bill AGL, and all those who copy them, for a percentage of what
their meters charge and the system is back to normal again.

The existing fuel supply system won't collapse overnight.

Yep, for as long as our civilisation keeps itself together I doubt
that it will ever become impossible for people like us to buy fuel,
but at some point soon it probably won't make sense to keep using it
for personal everyday transport.

**Keep imagining that. The fact is that oil is going to become a lot
more expensive and H2 and electricity will be cheaper. The oil
companies will be caught in their own death spiral in a few years.
Eventually, petrol/oil will be so expensive that buying an electric
or H2 powered car will be the preferred way for the vast majority.

What about agricultural and earthmoving machinery?

**H2.

 Ocean-going ships and
airliners?

**H2 or synthesised fuel. Make no mistake: the era of cheap airline
travel will soon be over.

The energy density (in Wh/L) of H2 even compressed to 700bar is less
than 1/6 of jet fuel which means that airlines would need fuel tanks 6
times the size of current ones not to mention strong enough to contain
700bar. That would present aircraft designers with some problems.

**Indeed. Porous metal storage systems present some promise, but you're
correct: Energy density is a major drawback. Synthesised fuel appears to
be the only practical solution. Either way, airline travel is likely to
be much more expensive in the medium term.


Ships are easier. They can run on almost
anything. Nuclear energy would be ideal.

Are you happy to have the nuclear waste end up near you?

**I made no comment on my personal feelings on the matter of nukes. Just
logic. Nukes make a great deal of sense for large ships.

It has been tried once (other than Russian nuclear icebreakers) that
ship now lies unused without her reactor as the project proved
impractical. Maybe sometime in the future, better reactors may make it
practical but I wouldn't hold my breath.

**It's been tried *A LOT* more than once. The US has now (and had in the
past) quite a large fleet of nuclear powered ships. Russia has a few (as
well as icebreakers), France has a couple and Japan has one. The US has
a production line of reactors just for their naval vessels. So, not so
impractical. Unpopular in passenger vessels? Probably.

Personally, you would not catch me on a ship (they're just confined
spaces where disease can run rampant)

A rather over-rated hazard, I've spent 60 days aboard ships in the last
two years without any sort of problem. It like aircraft crashes, when it
happens its all over the news, while lots more people are dying on the
roads. At this moment all over the country are quietly dying from 'flu,
we lost a friend to it this week.

**Bugger. Sorry to hear that. Nonetheless, passenger ships hold no
appeal for me.

nor supporting nuclear energy generation (in it's
present form). The waste issue is simply impossible to ignore. Despite
what it's proponents claim.


 Will they all go electric too?

**Ships are already Diesel/electric. So, they're half way there.

The electric part is only the transmission, the energy still comes
from oil.

**Indeed. However, ships could be powered by pretty much anything.
Modern turbines can be operated on pretty much any combustible material.
That was a big selling feature of the M1 Abrams Tank.

Not many civilian ships use turbines, the last two that I have traveled
on had a total of 7 diesels plus a gas turbine. The chief engineer told
us though that the turbine is only used in fragile ecological areas
because it uses a huge amount of fuel. The ship normally ran on 2 buses
each driven by two v16 and one V12 diesel each bus producing about 5MW.

**Yeah, they're big engines.


--
Trevor Wilson
www.rageaudio.com.au

 

[keithr0]

On 9/15/2017 7:47 PM, Trevor Wilson wrote:

On 15/09/2017 5:10 PM, keithr0 wrote:
On 9/15/2017 6:57 AM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 14/09/2017 10:42 PM, keithr0 wrote:
On 9/14/2017 2:46 PM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 14/09/2017 10:40 AM, ~misfit~ wrote:
Once upon a time on usenet Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 13/09/2017 9:03 AM, Computer Nerd Kev wrote:
Trevor Wilson <trevor@spamblockrageaudio.com.au> wrote:
On 12/09/2017 7:02 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 3:09 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:38 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:05 AM, FMurtz wrote:
What would they do with a thousand Teslas in one city?

**They're already here. Tesla is tight-lipped on sales data,
but sell approximately 1,000 cars per year. Let's say Tesla
have sold 1,000 cars
into Sydney, as Sydney is a significant portion of EV sales.

Then there's the others:

Nissan Leaf - 635 cars sold. Let's say, 200 are in Sydney.
Audi A3 e-tron - 128 cars sold. Let's say, 40 in Sydney.
Mitsubishi PHEV - 1,665 cars sold. Let's say, 550 in Sydney.
There are others, but figures are tiny.

So, if there are 1200 EVs in Sydney and 790 aren't Teslas, then there
can't be more than 410 Teslas in Sydney by your figures. I'd think
that would be on the high side too, here in SEQ, I've seen 2.

So, there are at least 1,200 pure EVs in Sydney and
probably a
similar
number in Melbourne. There are more PHEVs as well. Many are
most likely
operated solely on electricity.

Your point is?

Up to 40 amps for maybe 10 hours a day

**Yes. And your point is? I just showed that there are more
than 1,200 pure EVs (and quite a few PHEVs) in Sydney and
probably Melbourne right now. Every time I drive around
Sydney,
I see at least one Tesla and frequently 2 or 3. There are more
coming.
we could handle a few

most EVs take a lot less than teslas and if there was a
thousand
teslas in sydney itself and similar amounts in other suburbs it
would cost AGL a fortune

**I'll say it again: THERE ALREADY ARE MORE THAN 1,200 EVs IN
SYDNEY, RIGHT NOW!


**I'll say it again: TESLAs

**And I will say again: There are AT LEAST 1,000 Teslas in Sydney
right now. When the Model 3 arrives, you can expect that figure to
increase significantly.

Which will make AGL very happy when they decide to raise their
prices
again.

**Perhaps. Perhaps not. Either way, more electricity will need to be
supplied, which may allow power companies to climb out of their
death
spiral.


On another tack if every car was electric and huge advances
were
not made in electric supply would that work, there are already
parts of the UK that recon they will mandate all electric in
the
not too distant future, that will be fun.

**Can you suggest another alternative? Unless people in
Australia's large cities switch to public transport in droves,
then we are all in for a great deal of trouble. EVs can mitigate
some of the problem.
If all cars were electric they would probably have to figure out
how to tax highly the electricity used to charge them while not
the existing system ( maybe distance based rego?)and what to do
with the collapse of the existing fuel supply system

**You're thinking vertically. Every car will have a system that
communicates with the relevant authority and will be charged by
distance travelled on most roads.

I hope not, I don't want my car spying on me (though I'm probably
one of the very few who usually don't have another device spying on
them at the same time anyway).

**Then you would be one of the very few motorists that doesn't use a
toll tag. That would make driving around any of Australia's major
cities extremely inconvenient.


It seems to me that AGL have solved the government's problem for
them in this regard. Their new $1/day rate is charged on a specific
electric car outlet of a special power meter which has to be
installed in order to access the deal. The government just has to
bill AGL, and all those who copy them, for a percentage of what
their meters charge and the system is back to normal again.

The existing fuel supply system won't collapse overnight.

Yep, for as long as our civilisation keeps itself together I doubt
that it will ever become impossible for people like us to buy fuel,
but at some point soon it probably won't make sense to keep
using it
for personal everyday transport.

**Keep imagining that. The fact is that oil is going to become a lot
more expensive and H2 and electricity will be cheaper. The oil
companies will be caught in their own death spiral in a few years.
Eventually, petrol/oil will be so expensive that buying an electric
or H2 powered car will be the preferred way for the vast majority.

What about agricultural and earthmoving machinery?

**H2.

Ocean-going ships and
airliners?

**H2 or synthesised fuel. Make no mistake: the era of cheap airline
travel will soon be over.

The energy density (in Wh/L) of H2 even compressed to 700bar is less
than 1/6 of jet fuel which means that airlines would need fuel tanks 6
times the size of current ones not to mention strong enough to contain
700bar. That would present aircraft designers with some problems.

**Indeed. Porous metal storage systems present some promise, but you're
correct: Energy density is a major drawback. Synthesised fuel appears to
be the only practical solution. Either way, airline travel is likely to
be much more expensive in the medium term.


Ships are easier. They can run on almost
anything. Nuclear energy would be ideal.

Are you happy to have the nuclear waste end up near you?

**I made no comment on my personal feelings on the matter of nukes. Just
logic. Nukes make a great deal of sense for large ships.

It has been tried once (other than Russian nuclear icebreakers) that
ship now lies unused without her reactor as the project proved
impractical. Maybe sometime in the future, better reactors may make it
practical but I wouldn't hold my breath.

**It's been tried *A LOT* more than once. The US has now (and had in the
past) quite a large fleet of nuclear powered ships. Russia has a few (as
well as icebreakers), France has a couple and Japan has one. The US has
a production line of reactors just for their naval vessels. So, not so
impractical. Unpopular in passenger vessels? Probably.

Otto Hahn (German) launched 1964 Reactor replaced by diesel 1974
scrapped 2004.
Mutsu (Japan) sailed 1974 reactor removed and converted to a museum 1994
never carried a commercial cargo
Savanah (USA) launched 1959 deactivated 1974, now a museum.
Sevmorput (Russia) launched 1988 laid up 1988 reactivated as a military
transport 2016.

None of these were a commercial success. AFAIK all other nuclear ships
were military.

Personally, you would not catch me on a ship (they're just confined
spaces where disease can run rampant)

A rather over-rated hazard, I've spent 60 days aboard ships in the
last two years without any sort of problem. It like aircraft crashes,
when it happens its all over the news, while lots more people are
dying on the roads. At this moment all over the country are quietly
dying from 'flu, we lost a friend to it this week.

**Bugger. Sorry to hear that.

Yearh, going to his funeral on Monday.

> Nonetheless, passenger ships hold no appeal for me.

Its a relaxing way to travel, we visited 20 cities on a trip this year
only needed to unpack once, all the travel was done at night, just woke
up in a different place each morning. Then there are places that you
cant see any other way, Glacier Bay in Alaska for instance and Prince
Kristiansund in Greenland, a magnificent fjord with glaciers flowing
into it, it took an entire day to sail through it.

nor supporting nuclear energy generation (in it's
present form). The waste issue is simply impossible to ignore. Despite
what it's proponents claim.


Will they all go electric too?

**Ships are already Diesel/electric. So, they're half way there.

The electric part is only the transmission, the energy still comes
from oil.

**Indeed. However, ships could be powered by pretty much anything.
Modern turbines can be operated on pretty much any combustible material.
That was a big selling feature of the M1 Abrams Tank.

Not many civilian ships use turbines, the last two that I have
traveled on had a total of 7 diesels plus a gas turbine. The chief
engineer told us though that the turbine is only used in fragile
ecological areas because it uses a huge amount of fuel. The ship
normally ran on 2 buses each driven by two v16 and one V12 diesel each
bus producing about 5MW.

**Yeah, they're big engines.

Better than 90% of merchant ships are powered by huge diesels.

 

[keithr0]

On 9/14/2017 8:16 PM, Trevor Wilson wrote:

On 14/09/2017 8:03 PM, Sylvia Else wrote:
On 14/09/2017 7:31 AM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 13/09/2017 11:24 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Sylvia Else wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:05 AM, FMurtz wrote:
What would they do with a thousand Teslas in one city?

Dunno.

But one thing is certain, once the number of electric cars starts to
impact on petrol sales, governments will be looking to tax them so
as to
recover the lost duty and gst revenue.

Sylvia.

I hesitate to put URLs like this Because if they do not agree with
Trevor's take the articles are bullshit.

http://reneweconomy.com.au/how-many-teslas-does-it-take-to-black-out-an-apartment-block-13934/


**You stupid lying cunt. I just explained that there are already more
than 1,000 EVs in an Australian city (Sydney). I made no other claims.

Will lots of EVs cause problems in Sydney?

Possibly. If nothing changes.

However, there is another way to view the situation:

Part of the present problem with electricity generation in Australia
is that the electricity generation industry is in a 'death spiral'.
People are using less power, because electricity costs more and
appliances are more efficient. Because less power is being used,
power companies have to raise prices to maintain profitability. A
large increase in EVs will increase electricity demand and require
that power companies deliver more power, thus increasing their
profitability.

There's nothing to stop a person recharging their EV from a suitably
large array of PV cells, and using the grid only when the sun didn't
shine. Essentially then, they'll just be part of the death spiral.

Sylvia.


**Bang-on Sylvia. My next car (after the one to be delivered in January)
will likely be 100% electric, probably mostly self-driving. I can fit
around 4kW of Solar PV on my garage roof (North oriented). By the time I
buy my electric car, Solar PV will be almost free. 4kW of Solar PV would
allow me to drive an EV for 90% of the time free of cost (electricity).
Surplus power will be directed to a battery bank and then back into the
grid, for any unused electrons. Maybe I'll just share with my next door
neighbour. That said, it is also likely I will be in the minority, given
the proliferation of home units in Sydney nowadays. All those people
will have to plug-in.

All that on 4KW? Dream on.

 

[Trevor Wilson]

On 15/09/2017 9:47 PM, keithr0 wrote:

On 9/15/2017 7:47 PM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 15/09/2017 5:10 PM, keithr0 wrote:
On 9/15/2017 6:57 AM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 14/09/2017 10:42 PM, keithr0 wrote:
On 9/14/2017 2:46 PM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 14/09/2017 10:40 AM, ~misfit~ wrote:
Once upon a time on usenet Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 13/09/2017 9:03 AM, Computer Nerd Kev wrote:
Trevor Wilson <trevor@spamblockrageaudio.com.au> wrote:
On 12/09/2017 7:02 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 3:09 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:38 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:05 AM, FMurtz wrote:
What would they do with a thousand Teslas in one city?

**They're already here. Tesla is tight-lipped on sales
data,
but sell approximately 1,000 cars per year. Let's say Tesla
have sold 1,000 cars
into Sydney, as Sydney is a significant portion of EV
sales.

Then there's the others:

Nissan Leaf - 635 cars sold. Let's say, 200 are in Sydney.
Audi A3 e-tron - 128 cars sold. Let's say, 40 in Sydney.
Mitsubishi PHEV - 1,665 cars sold. Let's say, 550 in
Sydney.
There are others, but figures are tiny.

So, if there are 1200 EVs in Sydney and 790 aren't Teslas, then there
can't be more than 410 Teslas in Sydney by your figures. I'd think
that would be on the high side too, here in SEQ, I've seen 2.

So, there are at least 1,200 pure EVs in Sydney and
probably a
similar
number in Melbourne. There are more PHEVs as well. Many are
most likely
operated solely on electricity.

Your point is?

Up to 40 amps for maybe 10 hours a day

**Yes. And your point is? I just showed that there are more
than 1,200 pure EVs (and quite a few PHEVs) in Sydney and
probably Melbourne right now. Every time I drive around
Sydney,
I see at least one Tesla and frequently 2 or 3. There are
more
coming.
we could handle a few

most EVs take a lot less than teslas and if there was a
thousand
teslas in sydney itself and similar amounts in other
suburbs it
would cost AGL a fortune

**I'll say it again: THERE ALREADY ARE MORE THAN 1,200 EVs IN
SYDNEY, RIGHT NOW!


**I'll say it again: TESLAs

**And I will say again: There are AT LEAST 1,000 Teslas in Sydney
right now. When the Model 3 arrives, you can expect that
figure to
increase significantly.

Which will make AGL very happy when they decide to raise their
prices
again.

**Perhaps. Perhaps not. Either way, more electricity will need
to be
supplied, which may allow power companies to climb out of their
death
spiral.


On another tack if every car was electric and huge advances
were
not made in electric supply would that work, there are already
parts of the UK that recon they will mandate all electric in
the
not too distant future, that will be fun.

**Can you suggest another alternative? Unless people in
Australia's large cities switch to public transport in droves,
then we are all in for a great deal of trouble. EVs can
mitigate
some of the problem.
If all cars were electric they would probably have to figure out
how to tax highly the electricity used to charge them while not
the existing system ( maybe distance based rego?)and what to do
with the collapse of the existing fuel supply system

**You're thinking vertically. Every car will have a system that
communicates with the relevant authority and will be charged by
distance travelled on most roads.

I hope not, I don't want my car spying on me (though I'm probably
one of the very few who usually don't have another device
spying on
them at the same time anyway).

**Then you would be one of the very few motorists that doesn't
use a
toll tag. That would make driving around any of Australia's major
cities extremely inconvenient.


It seems to me that AGL have solved the government's problem for
them in this regard. Their new $1/day rate is charged on a
specific
electric car outlet of a special power meter which has to be
installed in order to access the deal. The government just has to
bill AGL, and all those who copy them, for a percentage of what
their meters charge and the system is back to normal again.

The existing fuel supply system won't collapse overnight.

Yep, for as long as our civilisation keeps itself together I doubt
that it will ever become impossible for people like us to buy
fuel,
but at some point soon it probably won't make sense to keep
using it
for personal everyday transport.

**Keep imagining that. The fact is that oil is going to become a
lot
more expensive and H2 and electricity will be cheaper. The oil
companies will be caught in their own death spiral in a few years.
Eventually, petrol/oil will be so expensive that buying an electric
or H2 powered car will be the preferred way for the vast majority.

What about agricultural and earthmoving machinery?

**H2.

 Ocean-going ships and
airliners?

**H2 or synthesised fuel. Make no mistake: the era of cheap airline
travel will soon be over.

The energy density (in Wh/L) of H2 even compressed to 700bar is less
than 1/6 of jet fuel which means that airlines would need fuel tanks 6
times the size of current ones not to mention strong enough to contain
700bar. That would present aircraft designers with some problems.

**Indeed. Porous metal storage systems present some promise, but you're
correct: Energy density is a major drawback. Synthesised fuel
appears to
be the only practical solution. Either way, airline travel is likely to
be much more expensive in the medium term.


Ships are easier. They can run on almost
anything. Nuclear energy would be ideal.

Are you happy to have the nuclear waste end up near you?

**I made no comment on my personal feelings on the matter of nukes.
Just
logic. Nukes make a great deal of sense for large ships.

It has been tried once (other than Russian nuclear icebreakers) that
ship now lies unused without her reactor as the project proved
impractical. Maybe sometime in the future, better reactors may make it
practical but I wouldn't hold my breath.

**It's been tried *A LOT* more than once. The US has now (and had in the
past) quite a large fleet of nuclear powered ships. Russia has a few (as
well as icebreakers), France has a couple and Japan has one. The US has
a production line of reactors just for their naval vessels. So, not so
impractical. Unpopular in passenger vessels? Probably.

Otto Hahn (German) launched 1964 Reactor replaced by diesel 1974
scrapped 2004.
Mutsu (Japan) sailed 1974 reactor removed and converted to a museum 1994
never carried a commercial cargo
Savanah (USA) launched 1959 deactivated 1974, now a museum.
Sevmorput (Russia) launched 1988 laid up 1988 reactivated as a military
transport 2016.

None of these were a commercial success. AFAIK all other nuclear ships
were military.

**None may have been a commercial success, based on the costs of running
Diesel engines, without regard to CO2 emissions and the costs of fuel.
Things are likely to change in the medium term on both issues. Nukes may
be far more economical in that sense. Additionally, the US has made some
significant strides in building reliable, efficient and compact nukes
for ships in the past 20 years.

Personally, you would not catch me on a ship (they're just confined
 > spaces where disease can run rampant)

A rather over-rated hazard, I've spent 60 days aboard ships in the
last two years without any sort of problem. It like aircraft crashes,
when it happens its all over the news, while lots more people are
dying on the roads. At this moment all over the country are quietly
dying from 'flu, we lost a friend to it this week.

**Bugger. Sorry to hear that.

Yearh, going to his funeral on Monday.

Nonetheless, passenger ships hold no appeal for me.

Its a relaxing way to travel, we visited 20 cities on a trip this year
only needed to unpack once, all the travel was done at night, just woke
up in a different place each morning. Then there are places that you
cant see any other way, Glacier Bay in Alaska for instance and Prince
Kristiansund in Greenland, a magnificent fjord with glaciers flowing
into it, it took an entire day to sail through it.

**I'm sure many people enjoy ships as a mode of travel. I don't.

nor supporting nuclear energy generation (in it's
present form). The waste issue is simply impossible to ignore. Despite
what it's proponents claim.


 Will they all go electric too?

**Ships are already Diesel/electric. So, they're half way there.

The electric part is only the transmission, the energy still comes
from oil.

**Indeed. However, ships could be powered by pretty much anything.
Modern turbines can be operated on pretty much any combustible
material.
That was a big selling feature of the M1 Abrams Tank.

Not many civilian ships use turbines, the last two that I have
traveled on had a total of 7 diesels plus a gas turbine. The chief
engineer told us though that the turbine is only used in fragile
ecological areas because it uses a huge amount of fuel. The ship
normally ran on 2 buses each driven by two v16 and one V12 diesel each
bus producing about 5MW.

**Yeah, they're big engines.

Better than 90% of merchant ships are powered by huge diesels.

--
Trevor Wilson
www.rageaudio.com.au

 

[Trevor Wilson]

On 15/09/2017 10:24 PM, keithr0 wrote:

On 9/14/2017 8:16 PM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 14/09/2017 8:03 PM, Sylvia Else wrote:
On 14/09/2017 7:31 AM, Trevor Wilson wrote:
On 13/09/2017 11:24 PM, FMurtz wrote:
Sylvia Else wrote:
On 12/09/2017 1:05 AM, FMurtz wrote:
What would they do with a thousand Teslas in one city?

Dunno.

But one thing is certain, once the number of electric cars starts to
impact on petrol sales, governments will be looking to tax them so
as to
recover the lost duty and gst revenue.

Sylvia.

I hesitate to put URLs like this Because if they do not agree with
Trevor's take the articles are bullshit.

http://reneweconomy.com.au/how-many-teslas-does-it-take-to-black-out-an-apartment-block-13934/



**You stupid lying cunt. I just explained that there are already more
than 1,000 EVs in an Australian city (Sydney). I made no other claims.

Will lots of EVs cause problems in Sydney?

Possibly. If nothing changes.

However, there is another way to view the situation:

Part of the present problem with electricity generation in Australia
is that the electricity generation industry is in a 'death spiral'.
People are using less power, because electricity costs more and
appliances are more efficient. Because less power is being used,
power companies have to raise prices to maintain profitability. A
large increase in EVs will increase electricity demand and require
that power companies deliver more power, thus increasing their
profitability.

There's nothing to stop a person recharging their EV from a suitably
large array of PV cells, and using the grid only when the sun didn't
shine. Essentially then, they'll just be part of the death spiral.

Sylvia.


**Bang-on Sylvia. My next car (after the one to be delivered in January)
will likely be 100% electric, probably mostly self-driving. I can fit
around 4kW of Solar PV on my garage roof (North oriented). By the time I
buy my electric car, Solar PV will be almost free. 4kW of Solar PV would
allow me to drive an EV for 90% of the time free of cost (electricity).
Surplus power will be directed to a battery bank and then back into the
grid, for any unused electrons. Maybe I'll just share with my next door
neighbour. That said, it is also likely I will be in the minority, given
the proliferation of home units in Sydney nowadays. All those people
will have to plug-in.

All that on 4KW? Dream on.

**Why not? 4kW @ 6 hours per day (Sydney, not Melbourne), 300 days per
year = 7,200kWh. A Tesla model S consumes roughly 250 Wh/km. That's a
whole Hell of a lot more kms than I drive each year. I could charge 3
Teslas based on how many ks I drive each year. A Model 3 would be even
better, as would the upcoming Nissan Leaf. I expect both would consume
well under 200 Wh/km.

--
Trevor Wilson
www.rageaudio.com.au