A Golden Opportunity!

[Watson A.Name - \"Watt Su]

"Dave Platt" <dplatt@radagast.org> wrote in message
news:10i565prlc48ia2@corp.supernews.com...

In article <41228d17$1@mustang.speedfactory.net>,
Michael A. Covington <look@ai.uga.edu.for.address> wrote:

It's called sniping, and there are software pkgs like snipe-it that
will
allow you to do this. But if the bidder bids the maximum sensible,
informed bid on his first bid, then the sniper is just paying too
much,
or else he needs it worse than you do.

My point. Sniping turns all auctions into sealed-bid auctions
(except for
the people who actually enjoy the sniping process as a game of
chance). The
published bids are *no* prediction of what people are actually
willing to
bid. So it's a sealed-bid auction disguised as an open-bid auction.
eBay
should make up their mind.

Well, even sans sniping, the eBay auctions are only semi-open. If
you're the leading bidder, others don't get to see what your maximum
bid is... only that it's at least $MININUM_INCREMENT above the maximum
bid of the next-highest bidder. An eBay auction would be fully open
if and only if each bidder's true maximum bid was visible in real
time.

I'm not at all sure that there's any way, even in theory, to prevent
sniping. You'd always have to create some rule which would
distinguish a "snipe" from a "non-sniping last-minute bid", and I
really doubt that you could create such a rule which would not be
largely arbitrary, and also rather easily circumvented.

Fuzzy timing? Make it so that each auction will end sometime during the
last minute (or some other predetermined value). If you submit your bid
at least 1 minute before the final time, you have a 100% chance of
bidding. But if you submit your bid during that last minute, the
bidding may have already ended.

--
Dave Platt <dplatt@radagast.org
AE6EO

 

[Watson A.Name - \"Watt Su]

"Dave Platt" <dplatt@radagast.org> wrote in message
news:10i5bgp17sgeh67@corp.supernews.com...

In article <4122a7f0@mustang.speedfactory.net>,
Michael A. Covington <look@ai.uga.edu.for.address> wrote:

I'm not at all sure that there's any way, even in theory, to
prevent
sniping. You'd always have to create some rule which would
distinguish a "snipe" from a "non-sniping last-minute bid", and I
really doubt that you could create such a rule which would not be
largely arbitrary, and also rather easily circumvented.

Add 5 minutes every time the (apparently) winning bid increases by
at least 5%.

Would this not be vulnerable to automated snipe-ware which submits
multiple, gradually-increasing bids during the last few minutes of an
auction, seeking to "push" the winning bid upwards at a rate just a
bit below the one which would trigger the "extend an auction" rule?

My guess is that any rule that you can think up, someone else can
figure out how to "game" with automated software assistance.

You're correct, I think, in that the current structure of the eBay
auctions means that it's difficult to predict what the winning bid
will be, based on the bids entered more than an hour or so before the
auction closes. I've come to anticipate a 2:1 kicker... that is, for
many items the winning bid will be about twice the leading bid a few
hours before the auction ends.

The current eBay system (with or without sniping) seems to reward
people who know in advance what they consider an item to be worth to
them, and put in a bid in that amount (either directly or via
sniping). They either win it (at a price at or below their limit), or
they lose it because someone else honestly outbid them.

The people who are disadvantaged by sniping are, I think, those who
try to place bids based on "what other people seem to be thinking that
this item is worth" - i.e. those who bid on the item in isolation, and
don't research it or look at the results of previous auctions. These
people may "lose out" because they don't actually bid what they're
truly willing to pay, and are outbid at the last moment.

These could also be sellers who are trying to buy at well below market
prices and then resell the items.

There is also another factor on Ebay, the 'buy it now' option. The
seller can put a cap on the price which allows the bidder to instantly
win the auction. Some sellers set the buy it now price so close to the
minimum bid that it's not worth bidding on and waiting for the auction
to end.

These same folks are also disadvantaged in another way... they're the
ones who are more likely to get caught up in the thrill of the
process, and bid an item up to much more than it's worth from other
sources. Their lack of prior research, and willingness to set an
honest personal value on the product, leaves them vulnerable in both
ways.

Like I said, a fool and his money are soon parted.

[snip]

I don't think you're going to be able to find an "ultimately fair" way
to run auctions... you'll just have to create a set of rules, and then
live with whatever ways in which people figure out how to game 'em to
their own personal advantage.

--
Dave Platt <dplatt@radagast.org
AE6EO

 

[Mark]

The way to stop sniping is to always have to type in a "displayed" number in
order to bid. This displayed" number would be like the bitmapped numbers on
some security systems where a slightly squewed picture of a number is
displayed for verification.

 

[John Miller]

swapemround wrote:

The way to stop sniping is to always have to type in a "displayed" number
in order to bid. This displayed" number would be like the bitmapped
numbers on some security systems where a slightly squewed picture of a
number is displayed for verification.

That would only stop computerized sniping. I (and many others) keep my
local clock within a second of NIST time, and check it against eBay's clock
before sniping manually.

--
John Miller
Email address: domain, n4vu.com; username, jsm

When you're down and out, lift up your voice and shout, "I'M DOWN AND OUT"!

 

[Michael A. Covington]

"Watson A.Name - "Watt Sun, the Dark Remover"" <NOSPAM@dslextreme.com> wrote
in message news:10i5smfodabedf1@corp.supernews.com...

Entirely too many people have never experienced an auction anywhere but
eBay
and don't realize just how weird eBay really is.

So you're saying that it's neither sealed- nor open-bid. No??

Precisely. And since eBay is not the same as any traditional kind of
auction, we shouldn't assume that it's the best way to do auctions. Keep
thinking about better ways to run an auction.

Over at Astromart, they run auctions like eBay (i.e., proxy bidding) but the
auction is automatically extended a few minutes as long as the bids are
going up at a certain minimum rate. There are those who complained that
this "takes the fun out of sniping" but we think it makes a better, fairer
auction.

 

[Michael A. Covington]

"Watson A.Name - "Watt Sun, the Dark Remover"" <NOSPAM@dslextreme.com> wrote
in message news:10i5ul6dd3ess6d@corp.supernews.com...

I'm not at all sure that there's any way, even in theory, to prevent
sniping...

Fuzzy timing? Make it so that each auction will end sometime during the
last minute (or some other predetermined value). If you submit your bid
at least 1 minute before the final time, you have a 100% chance of
bidding. But if you submit your bid during that last minute, the
bidding may have already ended.

That could work, but it would appeal even more to people who enjoy sniping
as a game of chance, rather than people who want an auction as an efficient
market.

 

[Michael A. Covington]

Add 5 minutes every time the (apparently) winning bid increases by
at least 5%.

Would this not be vulnerable to automated snipe-ware which submits
multiple, gradually-increasing bids during the last few minutes of an
auction, seeking to "push" the winning bid upwards at a rate just a
bit below the one which would trigger the "extend an auction" rule?

It couldn't push it very far. There would have to be some consideration of
all the bids submitted by the same person... i.e., you can't submit a
thousand bids each 0.01% higher than the previous one.

Actually there are already minimum bid increments. You can't bid at all
unless you are willing to beat the current high bid by a certain (small)
percentage. This is to keep from having a hundred bids that are 1 cent
apart.

 

[(0]

Hi Norman,

If you want to post the #'s here, I will take a crack at some value
guestimates. I have been watching the transistor auctions on Ebay
for several years now. One thing that will increase the value is if
they are in the original box or package. Unusuall or rare case types,
manufacturers that weren't around very long also can be worth
something. Post what you have and I will be glad to take a crack at
est a value or email me. You might want to hang onto them for a while
longer too as IMO people are just starting to collect old
semiconductors. Another important thing is listing them with keywords
in the title that will allow collectors to find your listing.

On Tue, 17 Aug 2004 18:26:29 -0700, "Watson A.Name - \"Watt Sun, the
Dark Remover\"" <NOSPAM@dslextreme.com> wrote:

"normanstrong" <normanstrong@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:0BqUc.25879$mD.19635@attbi_s02...
I have a substantial collection of transistors from the germanium era.
How does one go about determining if they have value beyond the
intrinsic?

Thanks,
Norm Strong

If you check the auctions on ebay for a few months, you will get a feel
for which germaniums are worth a lot as collectibles.

I think it's safe to say that any germanium transistor that's made after
1960 and comes in a fairly standard common package is _not_ going to be
a collectible. Many of the germanium transistors that are sold on ebay
are used for guitar FX, and might be uncommon, but are not collected by
collectors. They typically go for a few tens of cents to a few dollars.

The Raytheon CK722 transistors are considered collectible, and usually
go for several dollars to several tens of dollars depending on the age
and package material.



"Watson A.Name - "Watt Sun, the Dark Remover"" <NOSPAM@dslextreme.com
wrote in message news:10i2r86elv4oe6b@corp.supernews.com...
I regularly get on Ebay and search for 'transistors' and I exclude
those
such as 2n3904, 2n3906, 2n4401, 2n4403, 2n2222A, 2n2907 and a few
others. I usually come up with a few hundred listings. I then
check
them out to see what's hot, what's not, what's rare, and what's a
bargain. You've probably seen some of the old CK722 collectible
auctions that I've posted to the newsgroups which may go for a
hundred
dollars or more.

 

[(0]

Some general comments on Ebay and Sniping:

1. Since more people have started using automated bidding/sniping
services, I would say that items are going for less than what they
used to. This is just a general feeling and observation. I can't
back it up with evidence. It also could be because there are many
more sellers and more items up for sale on Ebay now or because of the
economy.

2. Most of the time, people end up paying too much for items on Ebay
because of auction fever. Most of the time, you can get what you are
bidding on somewhere else cheaper.

3. I have seen buyers pay $20 more than the Walmart price for common
items (Like a Nintendo 64) just because they were buying it on Ebay.
For example I saw a buyer pay $120.00 when you could buy the same unit
for $99.00 brand new at Walmart.

4. People have the idea that because they are purchasing the item on
Ebay, it has to be a bargain. Most do not factor in shipping into the
equasion.

5. I have had great success by searching for items where the seller
did not describe them properly or use proper keywords in the title.
Less bidders find the item so it ends up going for a much lower price.
You can do this by browsing every single item in the categories you
are interested in. Since many sellers use gallery pictures, it is
pretty easy to find something that is listed wrong / with the wrong
keywords in the title.



On Tue, 17 Aug 2004 18:26:29 -0700, "Watson A.Name - \"Watt Sun, the
Dark Remover\"" <NOSPAM@dslextreme.com> wrote:

"normanstrong" <normanstrong@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:0BqUc.25879$mD.19635@attbi_s02...
I have a substantial collection of transistors from the germanium era.
How does one go about determining if they have value beyond the
intrinsic?

Thanks,
Norm Strong

If you check the auctions on ebay for a few months, you will get a feel
for which germaniums are worth a lot as collectibles.

I think it's safe to say that any germanium transistor that's made after
1960 and comes in a fairly standard common package is _not_ going to be
a collectible. Many of the germanium transistors that are sold on ebay
are used for guitar FX, and might be uncommon, but are not collected by
collectors. They typically go for a few tens of cents to a few dollars.

The Raytheon CK722 transistors are considered collectible, and usually
go for several dollars to several tens of dollars depending on the age
and package material.



"Watson A.Name - "Watt Sun, the Dark Remover"" <NOSPAM@dslextreme.com
wrote in message news:10i2r86elv4oe6b@corp.supernews.com...
I regularly get on Ebay and search for 'transistors' and I exclude
those
such as 2n3904, 2n3906, 2n4401, 2n4403, 2n2222A, 2n2907 and a few
others. I usually come up with a few hundred listings. I then
check
them out to see what's hot, what's not, what's rare, and what's a
bargain. You've probably seen some of the old CK722 collectible
auctions that I've posted to the newsgroups which may go for a
hundred
dollars or more.

 

[David DiGiacomo]

In article <41237a04$1@mustang.speedfactory.net>,
Michael A. Covington <look@ai.uga.edu.for.address> wrote:

Over at Astromart, they run auctions like eBay (i.e., proxy bidding) but the
auction is automatically extended a few minutes as long as the bids are
going up at a certain minimum rate. There are those who complained that
this "takes the fun out of sniping" but we think it makes a better, fairer
auction.

This has been tried on many smaller auction sites, but I don't think you
can draw any conclusions about how it would work on eBay. The sniping
phenomenon did not really emerge until eBay reached a certain (large) size.
I think that if eBay adopted auction extension rules, software would be
developed to manipulate them, and auction patterns would change in an
unpredictable way.

 

[Dave Platt]

In article <10i5s3ajnv8mg18@corp.supernews.com>,
Watson A.Name - \"Watt Sun, the Dark Remover\" <alondra101@hotmail.com> wrote:

I've never read anything that claimed that Ebay auctions were sealed or
open. AFAIK, they just say that when the time us up, whoever has bid
the highest wins the auction. And the winning amount is equal to the
maximum of the second highest bidder (assuming there was another
bidder).

If it were a sealed bid auction, the winning amount would be equal to
the highest bidder, not the second highest.

Yup.

There have been many different styles of auctions run, through the
past centuries. They aren't, I think, hard-and-fast discrete models -
they are points in a fairly complex continuum of rules and
limitations, which share similarities and have differences.

Yankee, Dutch, open-bid, sealed-bid, eBay... there's no "one true way"
to run an auction. Every style has benefits and disadvantages to the
various parties involved. Given that peoples' interests are
fundamentally opposed there's not going to be a single style which is
"best" for everyone.

eBay's style is eBay's style. The fact that it doesn't map exactly
onto any of the historically-popular meatspace auction styles does not
make it any less legitimate, or any more (or less) "right" or "wrong".

It is what it is. The nature of any game is defined by its rules.

--
Dave Platt <dplatt@radagast.org> AE6EO
Hosting the Jade Warrior home page: http://www.radagast.org/jade-warrior
I do _not_ wish to receive unsolicited commercial email, and I will
boycott any company which has the gall to send me such ads!

 

[Jan-Erik Söderholm]

Dave Platt wrote:

Well, even sans sniping, the eBay auctions are only semi-open. If
you're the leading bidder, others don't get to see what your maximum
bid is...

Just as in a real live auction. You don't know what my maximum is,
do you ?

only that it's at least $MININUM_INCREMENT above the maximum
bid of the next-highest bidder. An eBay auction would be fully open
if and only if each bidder's true maximum bid was visible in real time.

So I should tell you up front, OK, let's bid, but I'll tell you
right now that I'm not going over $xxx anyway ?

I'm not at all sure that there's any way, even in theory, to prevent
sniping.

It's easy. Each succsessfull bud adds 5-10 minutes to the end time.
Just as in any real live auction. The auctioner always waits
until there is no more bids. If I'm overbid, I'm always
given the oportunity to re-bid. This whould make sure
the all eBay auctions *always* are won by the one willing
to pay the most !

And the snipers are toasted...

Jan-Erik.

 

[Dave Platt]

In article <4123CEFA.4D9A565E@aaa.com>,
Jan-Erik Söderholm <aaa@aaa.com> wrote:

It's easy. Each succsessfull bud adds 5-10 minutes to the end time.
Just as in any real live auction.

"Any", not "many". There have been (and, I believe, still are) quite
a few real-life "live" auctions which have fixed closing times.

The auctioner always waits
until there is no more bids.

Again, not "always" - just "usually".

If I'm overbid, I'm always
given the oportunity to re-bid.

This could be done. However, it leaves the auctions open to another
form of problem - indeterminate closing times. You could end up with
an auction being stretched out for many hours, with each participant
"raising" the other by only the minimum each time a few seconds before
the auction is due to close.

This whould make sure
the all eBay auctions *always* are won by the one willing
to pay the most !

.... or the one who is the least exhausted. Snipers might still be
able to win an advantage over live "real-time" bidders, by just
outlasting them... wait until 20 seconds before the five-minute
extension runs out, then raise the bid by a minimum increment.
Lather, rinse, repeat. Pretty easily done using automated tools.

This style of auction certainly reduces the advantage that snipers
have. However, it could tend to increase the amount of time and
attention that a bidder would have to pay to any given auction, since
they wouldn't know in advance when the auction would close. If this
makes the bidding experience more frustrating for the buyers, it could
work against eBay's best interests. Similarly, if this approach
results in higher overall winning bids than eBay's, it might be more
attractive to sellers but less attractive to buyers.

I'll be interested to see whether those eBay competitors who use an
open-bid, open-ended-time auction process end up being able to
convince people that this is a "better" system for the buyers (or the
sellers) than eBay's particular option model.

--
Dave Platt <dplatt@radagast.org> AE6EO
Hosting the Jade Warrior home page: http://www.radagast.org/jade-warrior
I do _not_ wish to receive unsolicited commercial email, and I will
boycott any company which has the gall to send me such ads!

 

[Jan-Erik Söderholm]

Dave Platt wrote:

If I'm overbid, I'm always given the oportunity to re-bid.

This could be done. However, it leaves the auctions open to another
form of problem - indeterminate closing times. You could end up with
an auction being stretched out for many hours, with each participant
"raising" the other by only the minimum each time a few seconds before
the auction is due to close.

Well, my guess is that you will pretty fast reach whatever
the bidders find to be their maximum anyway. And since you
know up front, that you can not "snipe" anymore, you could
just bid days in advance. So many auction could have there
bidding settled long before the time runs out. Who knows...

If this makes the bidding experience more frustrating for the buyers,...

Hm, *I* have been pretty frustrated when beeing outbid and *not*
beeing able to reply with a higher bid...

I'll be interested to see whether those eBay competitors who use an
open-bid, open-ended-time auction process end up being able to
convince people that this is a "better" system for the buyers (or the
sellers) than eBay's particular option model.

Agree.

Jan-Erik.

 

[Watson A.Name - \"Watt Su]

"Mark" <bigfathhairybiker@MAILhot(swapemround).com> wrote in message
news:4123165a$0$20257$ed9e5944@reading.news.pipex.net...

The way to stop sniping is to always have to type in a "displayed"
number in
order to bid. This displayed" number would be like the bitmapped
numbers on
some security systems where a slightly squewed picture of a number is
displayed for verification.

That doesn't stop sniping. That may stop sniping software, but humans
can still wait until the last few seconds to snipe you.

So ebay starts using your method, called "CAPTCHA" or Turing Test. Some
enterprising individual will then start a biz of sniping for those who
can't be in person at the end of an auction. Probably will call it
proxy bidding or something like that.

Rather than use your method, I would think that it would be easier to
just delay a bidder's bid for a random amount of time, say somewhere
between 20 seconds and 120 seconds. If you submit your bid on or before
the deadline minus 2 minutes, you have 100% chance of bidding. But
after that, your bid may be delayed past the ending point.

Some bastard spammers from hell had software to auto sign up accounts on
Hotmail, but were blocked after Hotmail started using CAPTCHA images.
The spammers then started some porn website where the user had to type
in the number in the image to gain entry. Well, you guessed it. The
spammers were using the porn site to sign up accounts on Hotmail.

 

[Watson A.Name - \"Watt Su]

"Michael A. Covington" <look@ai.uga.edu.for.address> wrote in message
news:41237a04$1@mustang.speedfactory.net...

"Watson A.Name - "Watt Sun, the Dark Remover"" <NOSPAM@dslextreme.com
wrote
in message news:10i5smfodabedf1@corp.supernews.com...

Entirely too many people have never experienced an auction anywhere
but
eBay
and don't realize just how weird eBay really is.

So you're saying that it's neither sealed- nor open-bid. No??

Precisely. And since eBay is not the same as any traditional kind of
auction, we shouldn't assume that it's the best way to do auctions.
Keep
thinking about better ways to run an auction.

Over at Astromart, they run auctions like eBay (i.e., proxy bidding)
but the
auction is automatically extended a few minutes as long as the bids
are
going up at a certain minimum rate. There are those who complained
that
this "takes the fun out of sniping" but we think it makes a better,
fairer
auction.

Sniping might be fun, but it doesn't prevent a buyer from winning a bid.

And the big, big problem is that almost everything is up for auction on
Ebay. And almost nothing at other auctions.

 

[Watson A.Name - \"Watt Su]

"Dave Platt" <dplatt@radagast.org> wrote in message
news:10i7av42v16f30@corp.supernews.com...

In article <10i5s3ajnv8mg18@corp.supernews.com>,
Watson A.Name - \"Watt Sun, the Dark Remover\"
alondra101@hotmail.com> wrote:

I've never read anything that claimed that Ebay auctions were sealed
or
open. AFAIK, they just say that when the time us up, whoever has bid
the highest wins the auction. And the winning amount is equal to the
maximum of the second highest bidder (assuming there was another
bidder).

If it were a sealed bid auction, the winning amount would be equal to
the highest bidder, not the second highest.

Yup.

There have been many different styles of auctions run, through the
past centuries. They aren't, I think, hard-and-fast discrete models -
they are points in a fairly complex continuum of rules and
limitations, which share similarities and have differences.

Yankee, Dutch, open-bid, sealed-bid, eBay... there's no "one true way"
to run an auction. Every style has benefits and disadvantages to the
various parties involved. Given that peoples' interests are
fundamentally opposed there's not going to be a single style which is
"best" for everyone.

eBay's style is eBay's style. The fact that it doesn't map exactly
onto any of the historically-popular meatspace auction styles does not
make it any less legitimate, or any more (or less) "right" or "wrong".

It is what it is. The nature of any game is defined by its rules.

That's the exact point I was tryi8ng to make in my other followup to
this thread.

Of course you can always try to not play by the rules...

--
Dave Platt <dplatt@radagast.org
AE6EO

 

[James T. White]

"Watson A.Name - "Watt Sun, the Dark Remover"" <NOSPAM@dslextreme.com> wrote in
message news:10i2r86elv4oe6b@corp.supernews.com...
<Snip>

For quite awhile I've been noticing that a few sellers have trashed up
the transistors listings for months; they sell supposedly 'vintage'
transistors for outrageous prices, and continually relist the same items
over and over, ad nauseum, with never a single bid. This, to me
indicates they're way overpriced and probably not really what the seller
says they are. One seller in particular really bothers me and probably
everyone else. They go by the name Goldenopportunities1, and sell just
a few transistors for a minimum bid of $10, charge $6 shipping for just
a few transistors, do not accept Paypal, and continually re-list the
same items over and over, making it tedious to browse thru all the
listings.

While I'm not defending GoldenO since I don't like his terms any more than you
do, he is running an eBay Store so you should expect to see him to re-list his
"inventory". I usually don't see much of his stuff unless I select "See
additional Buy It Now items from eBay Store sellers" so I see the eBay Store
Buy-it-Now items. As you pointed out, being able to exclude specific sellers is
a very nice feature, particulary when you have no intention of buying from them
under any circumstances. That eBay included it is a bit suprising since eBay
usually caters more to the sellers since they really pay for the service.



--
James T. White
SPAMjtwhiteGUARD@SPAMhal-pcGUARD.org

Note: Remove SPAM-GUARD to reply.

 

[Watson A.Name - \"Watt Su]

"James T. White" <SPAMjtwhiteGUARD@SPAMhal-pcGUARD.org> wrote in message
news:4124b1e7$0$445$a726171b@news.hal-pc.org...

"Watson A.Name - "Watt Sun, the Dark Remover"" <NOSPAM@dslextreme.com
wrote in
message news:10i2r86elv4oe6b@corp.supernews.com...
Snip
For quite awhile I've been noticing that a few sellers have trashed
up
the transistors listings for months; they sell supposedly 'vintage'
transistors for outrageous prices, and continually relist the same
items
over and over, ad nauseum, with never a single bid. This, to me
indicates they're way overpriced and probably not really what the
seller
says they are. One seller in particular really bothers me and
probably
everyone else. They go by the name Goldenopportunities1, and sell
just
a few transistors for a minimum bid of $10, charge $6 shipping for
just
a few transistors, do not accept Paypal, and continually re-list the
same items over and over, making it tedious to browse thru all the
listings.


While I'm not defending GoldenO since I don't like his terms any more
than you
do, he is running an eBay Store so you should expect to see him to
re-list his
"inventory". I usually don't see much of his stuff unless I select
"See
additional Buy It Now items from eBay Store sellers" so I see the eBay
Store
Buy-it-Now items. As you pointed out, being able to exclude specific
sellers is
a very nice feature, particulary when you have no intention of buying
from them
under any circumstances. That eBay included it is a bit suprising
since eBay
usually caters more to the sellers since they really pay for the
service.

Oh, really? I'd say that without buyers, both Ebay and the sellers
would be out of luck.

--
James T. White
SPAMjtwhiteGUARD@SPAMhal-pcGUARD.org

Note: Remove SPAM-GUARD to reply.