What is the realistic accuracy & precision of typical consum

M

Mad Roger

Guest
What is a realistic accuracy & precision of typical MPG measurements when
measured by the consumer using the typical method of dividing their
tripmeter miles by the gas-pump gallons during fillup?
 
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:08:33 -0000 (UTC), Mad Roger <rogermadd@yahoo.com> wrote:

What is a realistic accuracy & precision of typical MPG measurements when
measured by the consumer using the typical method of dividing their
tripmeter miles by the gas-pump gallons during fillup?

Close to 100% accuracy if done right. I've done it on long trips. But MPG will vary
depending on terrain, weather, wind direction, stop-and-go traffic, etc.
So if you want "true" MPG for your car, you have to do it for the life of the car.
Once you do it initially, it's kind of pointless to do again except to satisfy your
curiosity.
 
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:08:33 -0000 (UTC), Mad Roger
<rogermadd@yahoo.com> wrote:

What is a realistic accuracy & precision of typical MPG measurements when
measured by the consumer using the typical method of dividing their
tripmeter miles by the gas-pump gallons during fillup?
Repeatabilty is terrible. Accuracy can be pretty good over multiple
tanks. Can be pretty good even on single tanks IF there is a way to
ensure the tank is always filled to EXACTLY the same point (like a
level in the fill - tube, with the vehicle parked at EXACTLY the same
place for each fill-up). Relying on the auto-shutoff of the pump can
cause variance of several liters per fillup.
 
On 7/20/2017 9:04 AM, clare@snyder.on.ca wrote:
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:08:33 -0000 (UTC), Mad Roger
rogermadd@yahoo.com> wrote:

What is a realistic accuracy & precision of typical MPG measurements when
measured by the consumer using the typical method of dividing their
tripmeter miles by the gas-pump gallons during fillup?
Repeatabilty is terrible. Accuracy can be pretty good over multiple
tanks. Can be pretty good even on single tanks IF there is a way to
ensure the tank is always filled to EXACTLY the same point (like a
level in the fill - tube, with the vehicle parked at EXACTLY the same
place for each fill-up). Relying on the auto-shutoff of the pump can
cause variance of several liters per fillup.

My year old car gives constant mileage and appears very accurate when I
calculate based on fill-up. It even has a moving mileage meter going up
to 80 mpg when just coasting down hill or maybe 10 mpg going up hill.
I recall many times on long trips mileage varying all over the map
probably because I was filling up at different stations.
 
Mad Roger wrote:
What is a realistic accuracy & precision of typical MPG measurements when
measured by the consumer using the typical method of dividing their
tripmeter miles by the gas-pump gallons during fillup?

IF the odometer is accurate and you do the math out to the 10ths of a
gallon the pump shows it can be VERY accurate.

--
Steve W.
 
clare@snyder.on.ca wrote:
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:08:33 -0000 (UTC), Mad Roger
rogermadd@yahoo.com> wrote:

What is a realistic accuracy & precision of typical MPG measurements when
measured by the consumer using the typical method of dividing their
tripmeter miles by the gas-pump gallons during fillup?
Repeatabilty is terrible. Accuracy can be pretty good over multiple
tanks. Can be pretty good even on single tanks IF there is a way to
ensure the tank is always filled to EXACTLY the same point (like a
level in the fill - tube, with the vehicle parked at EXACTLY the same
place for each fill-up). Relying on the auto-shutoff of the pump can
cause variance of several liters per fillup.

Vehicle position or the auto shut off point won't make any difference.
You read the amount of fuel you pumped off the pump itself. The only
real issue is odometer accuracy. That can vary with tire size variations
and factory calibration.

--
Steve W.
 
On Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 9:42:15 AM UTC-4, Steve W. wrote:
clare@snyder.on.ca wrote:
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:08:33 -0000 (UTC), Mad Roger
rogermadd@yahoo.com> wrote:

What is a realistic accuracy & precision of typical MPG measurements when
measured by the consumer using the typical method of dividing their
tripmeter miles by the gas-pump gallons during fillup?
Repeatabilty is terrible. Accuracy can be pretty good over multiple
tanks. Can be pretty good even on single tanks IF there is a way to
ensure the tank is always filled to EXACTLY the same point (like a
level in the fill - tube, with the vehicle parked at EXACTLY the same
place for each fill-up). Relying on the auto-shutoff of the pump can
cause variance of several liters per fillup.

Vehicle position or the auto shut off point won't make any difference.
You read the amount of fuel you pumped off the pump itself.

That's only assuming you started with a literally empty tank and ran it empty.
 
On Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 8:08:37 AM UTC-4, Mad Roger wrote:
What is a realistic accuracy & precision of typical MPG measurements when
measured by the consumer using the typical method of dividing their
tripmeter miles by the gas-pump gallons during fillup?

There is a difference between Accuracy and Precision.

Keeping it simple and consistent: Run the filler to the first click. Do NOT round to the nearest whole number. Note the miles.

Run the filler to the first click. Do the math.

You will be within a percent or two, certainly far more accurate than your driving is consistent. Meaning, that if you do this over 50 gallons of fuel, or so (about 2,410 miles in my case), you will have a single-decimal average MPG that is good enough for most uses.

My on-board computer calculates electric miles, regenerative miles and gasoline use with each trip at two decimal places. Doing check-math on paper just for giggles, my one-decimal calculation was dead-on via the method described - based on total miles driven and total gasoline used.

Peter Wieck
Melrose Park, PA
 
In article <okqbo5$c17$1@dont-email.me>, csr684@NOTyahoo.com says...
clare@snyder.on.ca wrote:
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:08:33 -0000 (UTC), Mad Roger
rogermadd@yahoo.com> wrote:

What is a realistic accuracy & precision of typical MPG measurements when
measured by the consumer using the typical method of dividing their
tripmeter miles by the gas-pump gallons during fillup?
Repeatabilty is terrible. Accuracy can be pretty good over multiple
tanks. Can be pretty good even on single tanks IF there is a way to
ensure the tank is always filled to EXACTLY the same point (like a
level in the fill - tube, with the vehicle parked at EXACTLY the same
place for each fill-up). Relying on the auto-shutoff of the pump can
cause variance of several liters per fillup.

Vehicle position or the auto shut off point won't make any difference.
You read the amount of fuel you pumped off the pump itself. The only
real issue is odometer accuracy. That can vary with tire size variations
and factory calibration.

If you just do it one time, you can not be sure you put in the same
ammount of fuel that was taken out.

If you keep a running total of the ammount of miles and fuel over
several tank fulls , the ammount of fuel will sort of average out.

Say you park so the back of the car is up hill and you fill the tank.
Go a number of miles and fill up again. This time the back of the car
is down hill. You may burn out 15 gallons, but only put back in 14
gallons. Ot it could be the other way around and you burn 14 gallons,
but only put back in 13 gallons. From tank to tank full there could be
a large variation. Over many tanks, the variation will average out to a
lessor error.
After say 10 tanks used you only have to contend with one or two errors
caused by the exact ammount of fuel put in the tank. Probably just the
last tank full would be where the error would come in. So instead of 1
gallon of error like the example above, you would have about .1 gallon
of error if the pumps are correct, which they should be.
 
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 10:57:06 -0400, Ralph Mowery <rmowery28146@earthlink.net> wrote:

In article <okqbo5$c17$1@dont-email.me>, csr684@NOTyahoo.com says...

clare@snyder.on.ca wrote:
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:08:33 -0000 (UTC), Mad Roger
rogermadd@yahoo.com> wrote:

What is a realistic accuracy & precision of typical MPG measurements when
measured by the consumer using the typical method of dividing their
tripmeter miles by the gas-pump gallons during fillup?
Repeatabilty is terrible. Accuracy can be pretty good over multiple
tanks. Can be pretty good even on single tanks IF there is a way to
ensure the tank is always filled to EXACTLY the same point (like a
level in the fill - tube, with the vehicle parked at EXACTLY the same
place for each fill-up). Relying on the auto-shutoff of the pump can
cause variance of several liters per fillup.

Vehicle position or the auto shut off point won't make any difference.
You read the amount of fuel you pumped off the pump itself. The only
real issue is odometer accuracy. That can vary with tire size variations
and factory calibration.

If you just do it one time, you can not be sure you put in the same
ammount of fuel that was taken out.

If you keep a running total of the ammount of miles and fuel over
several tank fulls , the ammount of fuel will sort of average out.

Say you park so the back of the car is up hill and you fill the tank.
Go a number of miles and fill up again. This time the back of the car
is down hill. You may burn out 15 gallons, but only put back in 14
gallons. Ot it could be the other way around and you burn 14 gallons,
but only put back in 13 gallons. From tank to tank full there could be
a large variation. Over many tanks, the variation will average out to a
lessor error.
After say 10 tanks used you only have to contend with one or two errors
caused by the exact ammount of fuel put in the tank. Probably just the
last tank full would be where the error would come in. So instead of 1
gallon of error like the example above, you would have about .1 gallon
of error if the pumps are correct, which they should be.

If you're getting MPG on a long trip, you only fill the tank all the way when you start and
when you finish the trip. All the other gas stops you go by the meter reading.
Very little room for error if you write down the meter reading.
 
In article <okq6g0$409$1@news.mixmin.net>, rogermadd@yahoo.com says...
What is a realistic accuracy & precision of typical MPG measurements when
measured by the consumer using the typical method of dividing their
tripmeter miles by the gas-pump gallons during fillup?

Trip meter miles depends on circumference of driving wheels. I know my
speedo closely matches readings of roadside radar displays or my GPS, so
I guess trip meter miles will be accurate too.
 
fly shit to the left, pepper to the right.

Guys and gals - *EVERYTHING* depends on the accuracy of the odometer, the variation in the operating diameter of the tires, the amount of friction involved (LRR tires vs. AT tires as one example), even tire pressure. Then, add head or tail winds, external temperature, type and age of road surface, number of people in the car, number of dead McDonald's wrappers in the back, and so on and so forth.

If one wants five-decimal precision (that is also accurate) then one will need more tools than a commercial gas-pump reading and a simple odometer reading. However, if one wishes simply one-decimal accuracy, the problem is trivial and needs very little analysis-in-depth.

And, whether the car is parked on a hill pointing up, or pointing down, if it is being fueled at a legal, code-compliant fuel station, the flatness at the pump islands is regulated. Despite the many reaches to the contrary, this ain't nohow rocket science! It barely rises to slide-rule requirements.... .

Peter Wieck
Melrose Park, PA
 
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 09:42:10 -0400, "Steve W." <csr684@NOTyahoo.com>
wrote:

clare@snyder.on.ca wrote:
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:08:33 -0000 (UTC), Mad Roger
rogermadd@yahoo.com> wrote:

What is a realistic accuracy & precision of typical MPG measurements when
measured by the consumer using the typical method of dividing their
tripmeter miles by the gas-pump gallons during fillup?
Repeatabilty is terrible. Accuracy can be pretty good over multiple
tanks. Can be pretty good even on single tanks IF there is a way to
ensure the tank is always filled to EXACTLY the same point (like a
level in the fill - tube, with the vehicle parked at EXACTLY the same
place for each fill-up). Relying on the auto-shutoff of the pump can
cause variance of several liters per fillup.

Vehicle position or the auto shut off point won't make any difference.
You read the amount of fuel you pumped off the pump itself. The only
real issue is odometer accuracy. That can vary with tire size variations
and factory calibration.
No, steve. You are wrong. The amount of fuel you put in is the amount
you can squeeze into the empty portion of the tank. The amount you
used is the amount that used to be in the tank. You need to fill it to
the exact same point each time to get an accurate reading. You may
have filled your 72 liter tank to only 71 liters the last time you put
in 50 liters to fill the tank. Now, at a different station, with
different levels, you may squeeze in 73, or only 68. COSISTANCY is the
key - and where most will fall down, because, like you, they just
don't REALLY understand.
 
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 10:57:06 -0400, Ralph Mowery
<rmowery28146@earthlink.net> wrote:

In article <okqbo5$c17$1@dont-email.me>, csr684@NOTyahoo.com says...

clare@snyder.on.ca wrote:
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:08:33 -0000 (UTC), Mad Roger
rogermadd@yahoo.com> wrote:

What is a realistic accuracy & precision of typical MPG measurements when
measured by the consumer using the typical method of dividing their
tripmeter miles by the gas-pump gallons during fillup?
Repeatabilty is terrible. Accuracy can be pretty good over multiple
tanks. Can be pretty good even on single tanks IF there is a way to
ensure the tank is always filled to EXACTLY the same point (like a
level in the fill - tube, with the vehicle parked at EXACTLY the same
place for each fill-up). Relying on the auto-shutoff of the pump can
cause variance of several liters per fillup.

Vehicle position or the auto shut off point won't make any difference.
You read the amount of fuel you pumped off the pump itself. The only
real issue is odometer accuracy. That can vary with tire size variations
and factory calibration.

If you just do it one time, you can not be sure you put in the same
ammount of fuel that was taken out.

If you keep a running total of the ammount of miles and fuel over
several tank fulls , the ammount of fuel will sort of average out.

Say you park so the back of the car is up hill and you fill the tank.
Go a number of miles and fill up again. This time the back of the car
is down hill. You may burn out 15 gallons, but only put back in 14
gallons. Ot it could be the other way around and you burn 14 gallons,
but only put back in 13 gallons. From tank to tank full there could be
a large variation. Over many tanks, the variation will average out to a
lessor error.
After say 10 tanks used you only have to contend with one or two errors
caused by the exact ammount of fuel put in the tank. Probably just the
last tank full would be where the error would come in. So instead of 1
gallon of error like the example above, you would have about .1 gallon
of error if the pumps are correct, which they should be.
If the first and last are identical, none of the others matter. The
difference of 1, or 10 liters spread across many tanks becomes , more
or less, just noise. On the short term, like 1 tank, it can be a
pretty large percentage of error.
 
On 7/20/2017 5:15 PM, clare@snyder.on.ca wrote:
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 09:42:10 -0400, "Steve W." <csr684@NOTyahoo.com
wrote:

clare@snyder.on.ca wrote:
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:08:33 -0000 (UTC), Mad Roger
rogermadd@yahoo.com> wrote:

What is a realistic accuracy & precision of typical MPG measurements when
measured by the consumer using the typical method of dividing their
tripmeter miles by the gas-pump gallons during fillup?
Repeatabilty is terrible. Accuracy can be pretty good over multiple
tanks. Can be pretty good even on single tanks IF there is a way to
ensure the tank is always filled to EXACTLY the same point (like a
level in the fill - tube, with the vehicle parked at EXACTLY the same
place for each fill-up). Relying on the auto-shutoff of the pump can
cause variance of several liters per fillup.

Vehicle position or the auto shut off point won't make any difference.
You read the amount of fuel you pumped off the pump itself. The only
real issue is odometer accuracy. That can vary with tire size variations
and factory calibration.
No, steve. You are wrong. The amount of fuel you put in is the amount
you can squeeze into the empty portion of the tank. The amount you
used is the amount that used to be in the tank. You need to fill it to
the exact same point each time to get an accurate reading. You may
have filled your 72 liter tank to only 71 liters the last time you put
in 50 liters to fill the tank. Now, at a different station, with
different levels, you may squeeze in 73, or only 68. COSISTANCY is the
key - and where most will fall down, because, like you, they just
don't REALLY understand.

You buy gas by the gallon and mileage is miles per gallon. Summer gas
has higher density so you get more gas by weight for your money but it
costs more per gallon in the summer. Sounds like you can't win.
 
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 17:32:39 +0100,
Mike Coon wrote:

What is a realistic accuracy & precision of typical MPG measurements when
measured by the consumer using the typical method of dividing their
tripmeter miles by the gas-pump gallons during fillup?

Trip meter miles depends on circumference of driving wheels. I know my
speedo closely matches readings of roadside radar displays or my GPS, so
I guess trip meter miles will be accurate too.

Every reading a mom and pop does has inaccuracies that, I posit, are
tremendously higher than most people seem to think they are (at least most
people who quote mpg figures with decimal places in them).

Most people have a tripmeter reading and a gas pumpmeter reading.
Where they fill the tank and reset the tripmeter before driving away.

I can't find any reliable source that says what the accuracy or
repeatability of that mom-and-pop tripmeter/pumpmeter calculation, but
basic logic dictates that the errors compound such that there is likely
(IMHO) no way to get anywhere near decimal-point accuracy, and worse,
probably plus or minus 1 mpg is the closest anyone can get in terms of
repeatability and precision.

Even the EPA's $360,000 machine only claims plus or minus 2% of the
indicared reading. I can't find where I got the notion that a mom and pop
can't possibly get closer than about 4% with a tripmeter/pumpmeter mpg
calculation - but I'm still seeking those numbers as we speak.
 
On 07/21/2017 11:51 AM, Mad Roger wrote:
....

Most people have a tripmeter reading and a gas pumpmeter reading.
Where they fill the tank and reset the tripmeter before driving away.

I can't find any reliable source that says what the accuracy or
repeatability of that mom-and-pop tripmeter/pumpmeter calculation, but
basic logic dictates that the errors compound such that there is likely
(IMHO) no way to get anywhere near decimal-point accuracy, and worse,
probably plus or minus 1 mpg is the closest anyone can get in terms of
repeatability and precision.
....

Why do errors compound in your view?

And, it depends on what you mean in terms of accuracy -- in terms of
absolute one needs to know the calibration error of the odometer; most
folks are satisfied to just assume it's close enough for the purpose.

If you look at simply a single fillup, it's not unreasonable to expect a
few tenths of a gallon difference between the first fillup level and the
subsequent; if you try it on shorter distances than a full tank then the
fractional error goes up.

OTOH, if one keeps track over longer periods of multiple fillups and
take some care to use the same filling pattern and only fills up after
using near the full tank capacity, then over time plus/minus targets
_will_ tend to cancel out and I have no qualms in believing a relative
performance number in the 0.1 mpg can be determined.

As noted, I've done this on long trips a number of times (generally on
first trip or so with a new vehicle, either actually new (rare) or (most
often) new to me) just to see how it compared with previous and have had
quite good comparisons on recent ones with the computer-computed
results. These would be over total distances of 1500 to 2000 miles, not
just 20 miles test runs.

--
 
Vic Smith wrote on 7/20/2017 8:29 AM:
On Thu, 20 Jul 2017 12:08:33 -0000 (UTC), Mad Roger <rogermadd@yahoo.com> wrote:

What is a realistic accuracy & precision of typical MPG measurements when
measured by the consumer using the typical method of dividing their
tripmeter miles by the gas-pump gallons during fillup?

Close to 100% accuracy if done right. I've done it on long trips. But MPG will vary
depending on terrain, weather, wind direction, stop-and-go traffic, etc.
So if you want "true" MPG for your car, you have to do it for the life of the car.
Once you do it initially, it's kind of pointless to do again except to satisfy your
curiosity.

+1

I measure my gas mileage on every fillup. I get 19 to 20 MPG every fill
unless I do a lot of around town driving. Very consistent. I watch it to
see if it drops off which would mean something is wrong.

--

Rick C
 
On Fri, 21 Jul 2017 16:51:17 -0000 (UTC), Mad Roger <rogermadd@yahoo.com> wrote:


Even the EPA's $360,000 machine only claims plus or minus 2% of the
indicared reading. I can't find where I got the notion that a mom and pop
can't possibly get closer than about 4% with a tripmeter/pumpmeter mpg
calculation - but I'm still seeking those numbers as we speak.

The EPA doesn't have the time to do accurate MPG numbers Plus/Minus 2% is good enough for
the EPA. I'm sure my "mom and pop" MPG number are more accurate than that.
But so what? The MPG I get depend on the driving circumstances.
For instance, I've measured my MPG on a number of cars on 3000 mile round trips to Florida.
I can tell you the EXACT total MPG I got on those 3000 mile trips because I carefully noted
the exact metered amount of gas I used, and I verified the odometer accuracy using mile
markers. The only real useful thing that gives me is my MPG for the entire trip.
That includes local traffic when getting off the highway, and my travels at my destination.
But I know my approximate MPG at steady highway speed because I sometimes do tank to tank
calculations by filling to the filler tube. That too is an EXACT calculation, but is still
only approximate MPG because maybe the terrain and weather may vary.
So before you ask about "accurate MPG" you have to define what that is.
 
On Fri, 21 Jul 2017 12:42:08 -0500,
dpb wrote:

> Why do errors compound in your view?

It's like a chain is no stronger than the weakest link.

No calculated result can be better than the worse inaccuracy.

And, it depends on what you mean in terms of accuracy -- in terms of
absolute one needs to know the calibration error of the odometer; most
folks are satisfied to just assume it's close enough for the purpose.

Accuracy, precision, and sigfigs are standard terms:
http://www.chem.tamu.edu/class/fyp/mathrev/mr-sigfg.html
Accuracy: how closely a measured value agrees with the correct value.
Precision: how closely individual measurements agree with each other.
Sigfigs: accuracy is no better than the least accurate measurement.

By way of off-the-cuff example, if the accuracy of the odometer is to the
billionth of a mile and the accuracy of the pump gallons is to the
billionth of a gallon, but the accuracy of the fillup is plus or minus one
gallon, then the resulting mathematical (division or multiplication)
accuracy can be no better than plus or minus one gallon.

If you look at simply a single fillup, it's not unreasonable to expect a
few tenths of a gallon difference between the first fillup level and the
subsequent; if you try it on shorter distances than a full tank then the
fractional error goes up.

A single fillup will never suffice.

We're trying to compare a MPG *change* between two situations, so, by
definition, there _must_ be (at the very least!) /two/ separate
calculations.
+ Calculation before the change (say, smaller tire/wheel diameter)
+ Calculation after the change (say, larger time/wheel diameter)

OTOH, if one keeps track over longer periods of multiple fillups and
take some care to use the same filling pattern and only fills up after
using near the full tank capacity, then over time plus/minus targets
_will_ tend to cancel out and I have no qualms in believing a relative
performance number in the 0.1 mpg can be determined.

That's not necessarily true, because it depends on the understimations
balancing out the overestimations, but I'm not going to quibble that more
calculations done over time are likely going to randomize the precision and
accuracy fluctuations over time.

While I will not quibble with your statement (because I essentially agree
with you), I can point out that your speedometer can be consistently wrong
in the same direction in either precision or accuracy, in which case it's
*not* going to balance out over time. It will be consistently wrong, over
time.

But, let's not quibble about that because we both can assume that, for our
purposes, the randomization of measurement results will be half the time
underestimating and the other half the time overestimating - such that they
could balance out.

As noted, I've done this on long trips a number of times (generally on
first trip or so with a new vehicle, either actually new (rare) or (most
often) new to me) just to see how it compared with previous and have had
quite good comparisons on recent ones with the computer-computed
results. These would be over total distances of 1500 to 2000 miles, not
just 20 miles test runs.

Nobody yet, and even not me, has supported a claim for any better accuracy
than my presumed plus or minus one mile per gallon using the standard
mom-and-pop test of dividing the number of miles driven based on the
tripmeter reading by the pump indication of gallons used to fill back up to
a presumed similar previous starting point of amount of fuel consumed.

Remember, the resulting accuracy can't possibly be better than the least
accurate measurement.
 

Welcome to EDABoard.com

Sponsor

Back
Top