US COVID-19 Infections Back on Track

[Rick C]

Saturday we had a bit of good news in that the new infection rate was lower than Friday. But Sunday's rate was back close to the 3 day doubling trend. We'll see what Monday brings.

So we are back to the 30% per day, doubling in 3 days and 10x in ~9 days.

--

Rick C.

- Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[legg]

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 21:09:56 -0700 (PDT), Rick C
<gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

Saturday we had a bit of good news in that the new infection rate was lower than Friday. But Sunday's rate was back close to the 3 day doubling trend. We'll see what Monday brings.

So we are back to the 30% per day, doubling in 3 days and 10x in ~9 days.

Data collected in Ontario has revealed that the bulk of
viral detections occurred so far in travellers to the
US - not China or Europe.

Per-capita test rates in Canada are an order of magnitude
above that in the US, so far.

As a canary in the cage, up until the middle of last week,
it would be fair to simply multiply Canadian infection
and death counts x10, to reflect the population scale,
to suggest actual rates in the US at that time, in lieu
of actual testing in the US.

After border controls and local suppression, this may no
longer be true.

RL

 

[legg]

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 09:04:29 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 21:09:56 -0700 (PDT), Rick C
gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

Saturday we had a bit of good news in that the new infection rate was lower than Friday. But Sunday's rate was back close to the 3 day doubling trend. We'll see what Monday brings.

So we are back to the 30% per day, doubling in 3 days and 10x in ~9 days.

Data collected in Ontario has revealed that the bulk of
viral detections occurred so far in travellers to the
US - not China or Europe.

Per-capita test rates in Canada are an order of magnitude
above that in the US, so far.

As a canary in the cage, up until the middle of last week,
it would be fair to simply multiply Canadian infection
and death counts x10, to reflect the population scale,
to suggest actual rates in the US at that time, in lieu
of actual testing in the US.

After border controls and local suppression, this may no
longer be true.

RL

I note, that as testing ramps up, the ratio of new case
detections is now 80:1, (vs 10:1 US:Canada population).
This may reflect the US back-log.

RL

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 8:59:22 AM UTC-4, legg wrote:

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 21:09:56 -0700 (PDT), Rick C
gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

Saturday we had a bit of good news in that the new infection rate was lower than Friday. But Sunday's rate was back close to the 3 day doubling trend. We'll see what Monday brings.

So we are back to the 30% per day, doubling in 3 days and 10x in ~9 days.

Data collected in Ontario has revealed that the bulk of
viral detections occurred so far in travellers to the
US - not China or Europe.

Sorry, but doesn't it makes sense there are a lot more travelers between the US and Canada than Canada and overseas countries? So it would only make sense the majority of infections in travelers would be returning from the US, no?

Per-capita test rates in Canada are an order of magnitude
above that in the US, so far.

As a canary in the cage, up until the middle of last week,
it would be fair to simply multiply Canadian infection
and death counts x10, to reflect the population scale,
to suggest actual rates in the US at that time, in lieu
of actual testing in the US.

After border controls and local suppression, this may no
longer be true.

Sure, to measure infection rates in the US why not sample China in which case our infection rates are hugely low and we can consider removing some of the restrictions.



--

Rick C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 1:25:47 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 08:57:48 -0700 (PDT), Rick C
gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 8:59:22 AM UTC-4, legg wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 21:09:56 -0700 (PDT), Rick C
gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

Saturday we had a bit of good news in that the new infection rate was lower than Friday. But Sunday's rate was back close to the 3 day doubling trend. We'll see what Monday brings.

So we are back to the 30% per day, doubling in 3 days and 10x in ~9 days.

Data collected in Ontario has revealed that the bulk of
viral detections occurred so far in travellers to the
US - not China or Europe.

Sorry, but doesn't it makes sense there are a lot more travelers between the US and Canada than Canada and overseas countries? So it would only make sense the majority of infections in travelers would be returning from the US, no?


- only if the US was not, as claimed during that time, unaffected
by the world-wide spread.

Sorry, when is this time??? What exactly is your point? I've lost the thought.

--

Rick C.

-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[legg]

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 08:57:48 -0700 (PDT), Rick C
<gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 8:59:22 AM UTC-4, legg wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 21:09:56 -0700 (PDT), Rick C
gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

Saturday we had a bit of good news in that the new infection rate was lower than Friday. But Sunday's rate was back close to the 3 day doubling trend. We'll see what Monday brings.

So we are back to the 30% per day, doubling in 3 days and 10x in ~9 days.

Data collected in Ontario has revealed that the bulk of
viral detections occurred so far in travellers to the
US - not China or Europe.

Sorry, but doesn't it makes sense there are a lot more travelers between the US and Canada than Canada and overseas countries? So it would only make sense the majority of infections in travelers would be returning from the US, no?

- only if the US was not, as claimed during that time, unaffected
by the world-wide spread.

RL

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:10:00 AM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

Saturday we had a bit of good news in that the new infection rate was lower than Friday. But Sunday's rate was back close to the 3 day doubling trend. We'll see what Monday brings.

So we are back to the 30% per day, doubling in 3 days and 10x in ~9 days.

The Monday rate was back to the exponential growth although a bit below the original exponential constant. The number from Tuesday is about the same. Looks like the new infections are now growing at 10% instead of 30%, so we might finally be having an impact from our efforts.

If I had the time to spend on it I would break that down by state. Not sure where I'd dig out the data though. worldometers.info doesn't provide past data for states. The way they present their data table is a bit odd. I never know when they update things. It seems like the total changes once per day, but the "New Cases" changes on the fly, so that can't be used for constructing a table.

--

Rick C.

-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Flyguy]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 5:59:22 AM UTC-7, legg wrote:

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 21:09:56 -0700 (PDT), Rick C
gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

Saturday we had a bit of good news in that the new infection rate was lower than Friday. But Sunday's rate was back close to the 3 day doubling trend. We'll see what Monday brings.

So we are back to the 30% per day, doubling in 3 days and 10x in ~9 days.

Data collected in Ontario has revealed that the bulk of
viral detections occurred so far in travellers to the
US - not China or Europe.

Per-capita test rates in Canada are an order of magnitude
above that in the US, so far.

As a canary in the cage, up until the middle of last week,
it would be fair to simply multiply Canadian infection
and death counts x10, to reflect the population scale,
to suggest actual rates in the US at that time, in lieu
of actual testing in the US.

After border controls and local suppression, this may no
longer be true.

RL

Data on COVID-19 (Chinese virus) deaths in China are totally suspect. You know they are lying - you just don't know by how much. There have been TWENTY ONE MILLION cell phone accounts close in China - did they just stop wanting to talk to in-laws?

https://www.ibtimes.sg/china-hiding-covid-19-death-toll-21-million-cell-phones-disappeared-why-41580