Ukraine- The Underappreciated Risks of Catastrophic Escalation...

F

Fred Bloggs

Guest
U.S. already has a solid track record of defeat, so it won\'t surprise anyone if they bow out. The cold facts are that Ukraine is of no value to the west, and it\'s certainly not worth the cost of a nuclear war.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/playing-fire-ukraine
 
On Wednesday, August 17, 2022 at 10:00:12 AM UTC-7, Fred Bloggs wrote:
U.S. already has a solid track record of defeat, so it won\'t surprise anyone if they bow out. The cold facts are that Ukraine is of no value to the west, and it\'s certainly not worth the cost of a nuclear war.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/playing-fire-ukraine

Ukraine is Ground Zero for the new Cold War - regardless of how important or unimportant Ukraine is the U.S. this is a seminal moment in history.
 
On Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 1:41:29 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Wednesday, August 17, 2022 at 10:00:12 AM UTC-7, Fred Bloggs wrote:
U.S. already has a solid track record of defeat, so it won\'t surprise anyone if they bow out. The cold facts are that Ukraine is of no value to the west, and it\'s certainly not worth the cost of a nuclear war.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/playing-fire-ukraine
Ukraine is Ground Zero for the new Cold War - regardless of how important or unimportant Ukraine is the U.S. this is a seminal moment in history.

It\'s most likely the point where Putin\'s incompetence has became obvious enough to get him thrown out.

It may be a while before this happens. If he did try to start a nuclear exchange he\'d most likely get slung out immediately.

Gnatguy exhibits incompetence, but doesn\'t comprehend it.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
On Wednesday, August 17, 2022 at 11:41:29 PM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:
On Wednesday, August 17, 2022 at 10:00:12 AM UTC-7, Fred Bloggs wrote:
U.S. already has a solid track record of defeat, so it won\'t surprise anyone if they bow out. The cold facts are that Ukraine is of no value to the west, and it\'s certainly not worth the cost of a nuclear war.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/playing-fire-ukraine
Ukraine is Ground Zero for the new Cold War - regardless of how important or unimportant Ukraine is the U.S. this is a seminal moment in history.

It\'s not going to last that long. The Ukrainian army is getting slaughtered, supplies of everything, including people, are depleted, morale is low and the Ukrainian people are not behind them. The people fighting Russia are keeping their identities hidden because they know Russia will eventually win, take over, and hunt down former fighters. I wonder if they asked themselves and all this is for what? So Ukraine can join NATO? Are you f___ing kidding me???
https://www.npr.org/2022/07/18/1112113033/ukraine-russia-war-injuries-morale
 
On Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 12:07:46 AM UTC-4, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 1:41:29 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Wednesday, August 17, 2022 at 10:00:12 AM UTC-7, Fred Bloggs wrote:
U.S. already has a solid track record of defeat, so it won\'t surprise anyone if they bow out. The cold facts are that Ukraine is of no value to the west, and it\'s certainly not worth the cost of a nuclear war.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/playing-fire-ukraine
Ukraine is Ground Zero for the new Cold War - regardless of how important or unimportant Ukraine is the U.S. this is a seminal moment in history.
It\'s most likely the point where Putin\'s incompetence has became obvious enough to get him thrown out.

\"Geography. The border has a length of 2,295.04 kilometres (1,426.07 mi) of which 1,974.04 kilometres (1,226.61 mi) is land border and 321 kilometres (199 mi) is sea border.\"- Russia-Ukraine border.

And Russia has always had a big problem with access to the seas, in an ideal sense, overlooking the historically poor performance of their navy.

It may be a while before this happens. If he did try to start a nuclear exchange he\'d most likely get slung out immediately.

Gnatguy exhibits incompetence, but doesn\'t comprehend it.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
On Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 11:05:56 AM UTC-7, Fred Bloggs wrote:
On Wednesday, August 17, 2022 at 11:41:29 PM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:
On Wednesday, August 17, 2022 at 10:00:12 AM UTC-7, Fred Bloggs wrote:
U.S. already has a solid track record of defeat, so it won\'t surprise anyone if they bow out. The cold facts are that Ukraine is of no value to the west, and it\'s certainly not worth the cost of a nuclear war.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/playing-fire-ukraine
Ukraine is Ground Zero for the new Cold War - regardless of how important or unimportant Ukraine is the U.S. this is a seminal moment in history.
It\'s not going to last that long. The Ukrainian army is getting slaughtered, supplies of everything, including people, are depleted, morale is low and the Ukrainian people are not behind them.
Exactly same story on the Russian side. The war is just going to drag on for a long time.
 
On 8/17/2022 10:00 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
U.S. already has a solid track record of defeat, so it won\'t surprise anyone
if they bow out. The cold facts are that Ukraine is of no value to the west,
and it\'s certainly not worth the cost of a nuclear war.

Exactly *what* would be worth the cost of a nuclear war -- so I\'m
ready when that situation arises?
 
On Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 2:49:44 PM UTC-4, Ed Lee wrote:
On Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 11:05:56 AM UTC-7, Fred Bloggs wrote:
On Wednesday, August 17, 2022 at 11:41:29 PM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:
On Wednesday, August 17, 2022 at 10:00:12 AM UTC-7, Fred Bloggs wrote:
U.S. already has a solid track record of defeat, so it won\'t surprise anyone if they bow out. The cold facts are that Ukraine is of no value to the west, and it\'s certainly not worth the cost of a nuclear war.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/playing-fire-ukraine
Ukraine is Ground Zero for the new Cold War - regardless of how important or unimportant Ukraine is the U.S. this is a seminal moment in history..
It\'s not going to last that long. The Ukrainian army is getting slaughtered, supplies of everything, including people, are depleted, morale is low and the Ukrainian people are not behind them.
Exactly same story on the Russian side. The war is just going to drag on for a long time.

The population of Ukraine is 44M, and the Russian Federation is 144M. Russia has the capacity to crush Ukraine, it\'s all a matter of how much they\'re willing to commit to it. The casualties counts are misleading because offensive operations are an order of magnitude more costly than defensive operations. Apparently Ukraine is not getting the message as they\'re launching offensives to retake territory from Russian occupation. That doesn\'t sound like a particularly brilliant move when all their warfighting resources are so scarce. They\'re not going to demoralize Russia. Public opinion there is Putin is being too soft on Ukraine.
The whole situation there is really shady on both sides.
 
On Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 3:02:43 PM UTC-4, Don Y wrote:
On 8/17/2022 10:00 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
U.S. already has a solid track record of defeat, so it won\'t surprise anyone
if they bow out. The cold facts are that Ukraine is of no value to the west,
and it\'s certainly not worth the cost of a nuclear war.
Exactly *what* would be worth the cost of a nuclear war -- so I\'m
ready when that situation arises?

Putin doesn\'t like the idea of the western powers setting up a border state with a lot of military armament and surveillance capability that could threaten their autonomy. He\'s very willing to nuke Europe and possibly the U.S.. over it. It\'s not what we think that\'s important, it\'s what they think.
 
On Friday, August 19, 2022 at 11:35:43 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
On Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 2:49:44 PM UTC-4, Ed Lee wrote:
On Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 11:05:56 AM UTC-7, Fred Bloggs wrote:
On Wednesday, August 17, 2022 at 11:41:29 PM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:
On Wednesday, August 17, 2022 at 10:00:12 AM UTC-7, Fred Bloggs wrote:
U.S. already has a solid track record of defeat, so it won\'t surprise anyone if they bow out. The cold facts are that Ukraine is of no value to the west, and it\'s certainly not worth the cost of a nuclear war.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/playing-fire-ukraine
Ukraine is Ground Zero for the new Cold War - regardless of how important or unimportant Ukraine is the U.S. this is a seminal moment in history.
It\'s not going to last that long. The Ukrainian army is getting slaughtered, supplies of everything, including people, are depleted, morale is low and the Ukrainian people are not behind them.

Exactly same story on the Russian side. The war is just going to drag on for a long time.

The population of Ukraine is 44M, and the Russian Federation is 144M. Russia has the capacity to crush Ukraine,

They migh have it if the country was well run. Russia is all in the hands of money hungry oligachs, who don\'t like paying taxes, and have lots of political clout. The Ukraine didn\'t start off much better, but eventually kicked out most of the crooks. It showed up Putin and cronies, who are trying to wreck the place before the Russian population follows the Ukranian example

> it\'s all a matter of how much they\'re willing to commit to it.

And how much they are able to commit to it

> The casualties counts are misleading because offensive operations are an order of magnitude more costly than defensive operations.

Incompetent and ill-organised offensives are even more expensive.

> Apparently Ukraine is not getting the message as they\'re launching offensives to retake territory from Russian occupation. That doesn\'t sound like a particularly brilliant move when all their warfighting resources are so scarce.

Limited, carefully organised offensives can be less expensive. The Russian attack on the Ukraine was very expensive because they thought it was going to be a walk-over. The Ukranians have a much better idea of the forces they are going to need to defeat. They\'ve been fighting them for a while now.

>They\'re not going to demoralize Russia. Public opinion there is Putin is being too soft on Ukraine.

Public opinion in Russia depends a lot on what Putin chooses to tell them. The families of the cannon-fodder being sacrificed aren\'t going to be complaining that Putin has been too soft.

> The whole situation there is really shady on both sides.

Russia invaded the Ukraine. There\'s nothing \"shady\" about that situation. It was simple military aggression.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
On Friday, August 19, 2022 at 11:45:34 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
On Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 3:02:43 PM UTC-4, Don Y wrote:
On 8/17/2022 10:00 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
U.S. already has a solid track record of defeat, so it won\'t surprise anyone
if they bow out. The cold facts are that Ukraine is of no value to the west,
and it\'s certainly not worth the cost of a nuclear war.

Exactly *what* would be worth the cost of a nuclear war -- so I\'m
ready when that situation arises?

Putin doesn\'t like the idea of the western powers setting up a border state with a lot of military armament and surveillance capability that could threaten their autonomy. He\'s very willing to nuke Europe and possibly the U.S. over it.

So he\'s a suicidal lunatic, prepared to see his country bombed back to the stone age rather than see his \"autonomy\" threatened?

It seems unlikely, and even if it were true his support staff would probably figure that it was less risky to have him put into a lunatic asylum rather than to let him start a nuclear war.

> It\'s not what we think that\'s important, it\'s what they think.

But you are telling us what you think they think, which probably hasn\'t got much to do with what they actually think.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
On Friday, August 19, 2022 at 11:00:44 AM UTC-4, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Friday, August 19, 2022 at 11:45:34 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
On Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 3:02:43 PM UTC-4, Don Y wrote:
On 8/17/2022 10:00 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
U.S. already has a solid track record of defeat, so it won\'t surprise anyone
if they bow out. The cold facts are that Ukraine is of no value to the west,
and it\'s certainly not worth the cost of a nuclear war.

Exactly *what* would be worth the cost of a nuclear war -- so I\'m
ready when that situation arises?

Putin doesn\'t like the idea of the western powers setting up a border state with a lot of military armament and surveillance capability that could threaten their autonomy. He\'s very willing to nuke Europe and possibly the U.S. over it.
So he\'s a suicidal lunatic, prepared to see his country bombed back to the stone age rather than see his \"autonomy\" threatened?

Russia is already in the stone age...

It seems unlikely, and even if it were true his support staff would probably figure that it was less risky to have him put into a lunatic asylum rather than to let him start a nuclear war.

Don\'t count on anything like that happening.

It\'s not what we think that\'s important, it\'s what they think.
But you are telling us what you think they think, which probably hasn\'t got much to do with what they actually think.

You haven\'t been following the events over the past 15-25 years. Russia was strongly complaining about some little short range missile batteries deployed to Poland. Now the U.S. is in-process of building an entire missile defense radar installation there- they already have one completed in Romania. Missile defense by definition means anti-ballistic missile. Ostensibly they say the infrastructure is to protect Europe from ICBMs launched by Iran. Mmmmmm-ok. Russia is drawing the line at Ukraine.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/04/12/a-drone-doolittle-raid-how-ukraine-could-hit-moscow/?sh=329d567f3649


--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
On 8/19/2022 6:45 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
On Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 3:02:43 PM UTC-4, Don Y wrote:
On 8/17/2022 10:00 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
U.S. already has a solid track record of defeat, so it won\'t surprise
anyone if they bow out. The cold facts are that Ukraine is of no value
to the west, and it\'s certainly not worth the cost of a nuclear war.
Exactly *what* would be worth the cost of a nuclear war -- so I\'m ready
when that situation arises?

Putin doesn\'t like the idea of the western powers setting up a border state
with a lot of military armament and surveillance capability that could
threaten their autonomy. He\'s very willing to nuke Europe and possibly the
U.S. over it. It\'s not what we think that\'s important, it\'s what they
think.

You didn\'t answer my question.

You\'ve just told me what you think he wants us to think.
Maybe we should beat our chest as well -- send military transports
into UKRAINIAN airspace and tell Putin, \"You\'d better not interfere
with them as we\'ve got the bomber fleet on full alert -- and have
notified our NATO allies of our readiness to counterattack
with overwhelming force...\"

Then, see who blinks.

I\'m sure he\'d realize that any archives of his country that survive
likely wouldn\'t remember him as a \"hero\" but, rather, the person who
was responsible for their apocalyptic living conditions.

[Unless, of course, he thinks he can defeat all of NATO with his
current record of \"progress\" against Ukraine?]

One thing we know for sure, now, is Putin is Xi\'s lap dog and
likely to remain so till his death -- going to China, hat-in-hand
for foodstuffs, military supplies, etc.

Gotta wonder when China decides his credit isn\'t any good and opts
for something more tangible -- like RUSSIAN REAL ESTATE - to pay his dues.
 
On Friday, August 19, 2022 at 1:04:53 PM UTC-4, Don Y wrote:
On 8/19/2022 6:45 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
On Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 3:02:43 PM UTC-4, Don Y wrote:
On 8/17/2022 10:00 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
U.S. already has a solid track record of defeat, so it won\'t surprise
anyone if they bow out. The cold facts are that Ukraine is of no value
to the west, and it\'s certainly not worth the cost of a nuclear war.
Exactly *what* would be worth the cost of a nuclear war -- so I\'m ready
when that situation arises?

Putin doesn\'t like the idea of the western powers setting up a border state
with a lot of military armament and surveillance capability that could
threaten their autonomy. He\'s very willing to nuke Europe and possibly the
U.S. over it. It\'s not what we think that\'s important, it\'s what they
think.
You didn\'t answer my question.

You\'ve just told me what you think he wants us to think.

Of course that\'s what he wants to think, that\'s why he said it.

Maybe we should beat our chest as well -- send military transports
into UKRAINIAN airspace and tell Putin, \"You\'d better not interfere
with them as we\'ve got the bomber fleet on full alert -- and have
notified our NATO allies of our readiness to counterattack
with overwhelming force...\"

That\'s tantamount to waging war against Russia, and a surefire way to find out who\'s bluffing.


Then, see who blinks.

I\'m sure he\'d realize that any archives of his country that survive
likely wouldn\'t remember him as a \"hero\" but, rather, the person who
was responsible for their apocalyptic living conditions.

I\'m pretty sure Putin is not a big fan of popular opinion...

[Unless, of course, he thinks he can defeat all of NATO with his
current record of \"progress\" against Ukraine?]

One thing we know for sure, now, is Putin is Xi\'s lap dog and
likely to remain so till his death -- going to China, hat-in-hand
for foodstuffs, military supplies, etc.

Gotta wonder when China decides his credit isn\'t any good and opts
for something more tangible -- like RUSSIAN REAL ESTATE - to pay his dues..

Okay- China right now is in the position of not being able to feed itself. They\'re importing food, not exporting it. And all of that was caused by extreme weather catastrophes.

Military supplies from China? You can\'t be serious. Iran and maybe the Houthis buy from them but I doubt Russia does- dunno for sure. Russia sells missile components to N. Korea, who knows what else and to whom.

Don\'t believe the western press and their bs about China being a military powerhouse- they\'re not. There\'s a LOT more to military capability than sheer numbers. A recent modern example is ww2 Germany, which in many cases was greatly outmanned and even outgunned, but their tactics and their execution of those tactics were so excellent, they sliced their opponents to shreds.
 
On 8/19/2022 10:22 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
On Friday, August 19, 2022 at 1:04:53 PM UTC-4, Don Y wrote:
On 8/19/2022 6:45 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
On Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 3:02:43 PM UTC-4, Don Y wrote:
On 8/17/2022 10:00 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
U.S. already has a solid track record of defeat, so it won\'t
surprise anyone if they bow out. The cold facts are that Ukraine is
of no value to the west, and it\'s certainly not worth the cost of a
nuclear war.
Exactly *what* would be worth the cost of a nuclear war -- so I\'m
ready when that situation arises?

Putin doesn\'t like the idea of the western powers setting up a border
state with a lot of military armament and surveillance capability that
could threaten their autonomy. He\'s very willing to nuke Europe and
possibly the U.S. over it. It\'s not what we think that\'s important, it\'s
what they think.
You didn\'t answer my question.

You\'ve just told me what you think he wants us to think.

Of course that\'s what he wants to think, that\'s why he said it.

And you STILL haven\'t answered my question.

I.e., under what circumstances do you \"call an implied nuclear bluff\"?

Maybe we should beat our chest as well -- send military transports into
UKRAINIAN airspace and tell Putin, \"You\'d better not interfere with them
as we\'ve got the bomber fleet on full alert -- and have notified our NATO
allies of our readiness to counterattack with overwhelming force...\"

That\'s tantamount to waging war against Russia, and a surefire way to find
out who\'s bluffing.

If we flew a military transport into Lithuanian airspace, or Poland,
would THAT be a declaration of war?

What if we flew one into BRAZILIAN airspace?

Or, a Cape Town overflight? What are th elimits we should be willing to
accept on his IMPLIED ultimatums? Why does ONLY HE get to issue them?
What value military force if not as a potential aggressive deterrent?

Then, see who blinks.

I\'m sure he\'d realize that any archives of his country that survive likely
wouldn\'t remember him as a \"hero\" but, rather, the person who was
responsible for their apocalyptic living conditions.

I\'m pretty sure Putin is not a big fan of popular opinion...

But he supposedly loves his country and is ashamed at its
loss of standing. Do you think he\'d engage (or RISK engaging)
in a behavior that DEFINITELY would lower its standing
(even if the entire world burns, one thing for sure is Russia would
be the first in flames)

[Unless, of course, he thinks he can defeat all of NATO with his current
record of \"progress\" against Ukraine?]

One thing we know for sure, now, is Putin is Xi\'s lap dog and likely to
remain so till his death -- going to China, hat-in-hand for foodstuffs,
military supplies, etc.

Gotta wonder when China decides his credit isn\'t any good and opts for
something more tangible -- like RUSSIAN REAL ESTATE - to pay his dues.

Okay- China right now is in the position of not being able to feed itself.
They\'re importing food, not exporting it. And all of that was caused by
extreme weather catastrophes.

Military supplies from China? You can\'t be serious. Iran and maybe the
Houthis buy from them but I doubt Russia does- dunno for sure. Russia sells
missile components to N. Korea, who knows what else and to whom.

Don\'t believe the western press and their bs about China being a military
powerhouse- they\'re not. There\'s a LOT more to military capability than
sheer numbers. A recent modern example is ww2 Germany, which in many cases
was greatly outmanned and even outgunned, but their tactics and their
execution of those tactics were so excellent, they sliced their opponents to
shreds.

Russia is burning through men and material. How do you think he\'s
going to replenish those? Where is he going to spend his coin?
He\'s presently emulating North Korea in terms of access to world
markets. Kim is just as vulnerable -- there will be a time when
his bluff will be called and he\'ll have to suffer the consequences
(or lose face on the world stage and lose the power of that bluff)

As for \"tactics\", maybe Russia is hiding its strength? Willingly
losing men and material in the hope of lulling the rest of the
world into thinking it\'s NOT a superpower?? How does that jibe with
his obsessing over Russia\'s loss of stature?
 
On Friday, August 19, 2022 at 1:44:11 PM UTC-4, Don Y wrote:
On 8/19/2022 10:22 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
On Friday, August 19, 2022 at 1:04:53 PM UTC-4, Don Y wrote:
On 8/19/2022 6:45 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
On Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 3:02:43 PM UTC-4, Don Y wrote:
On 8/17/2022 10:00 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
U.S. already has a solid track record of defeat, so it won\'t
surprise anyone if they bow out. The cold facts are that Ukraine is
of no value to the west, and it\'s certainly not worth the cost of a
nuclear war.
Exactly *what* would be worth the cost of a nuclear war -- so I\'m
ready when that situation arises?

Putin doesn\'t like the idea of the western powers setting up a border
state with a lot of military armament and surveillance capability that
could threaten their autonomy. He\'s very willing to nuke Europe and
possibly the U.S. over it. It\'s not what we think that\'s important, it\'s
what they think.
You didn\'t answer my question.

You\'ve just told me what you think he wants us to think.

Of course that\'s what he wants to think, that\'s why he said it.
And you STILL haven\'t answered my question.

I.e., under what circumstances do you \"call an implied nuclear bluff\"?

I have no idea since that circumstance is as remote as being able to sprout wings and fly...

Maybe we should beat our chest as well -- send military transports into
UKRAINIAN airspace and tell Putin, \"You\'d better not interfere with them
as we\'ve got the bomber fleet on full alert -- and have notified our NATO
allies of our readiness to counterattack with overwhelming force...\"

That\'s tantamount to waging war against Russia, and a surefire way to find
out who\'s bluffing.
If we flew a military transport into Lithuanian airspace, or Poland,
would THAT be a declaration of war?

He doesn\'t have a real problem with that, Belarus buffers Lithuania, Ukraine used to buffer Poland...

He is threatening Lithuania for blocking transportation between Kaliningrad ( formerly Konigsberg) and ? maybe Ukraine. They backed off.


What if we flew one into BRAZILIAN airspace?

Or, a Cape Town overflight? What are th elimits we should be willing to
accept on his IMPLIED ultimatums? Why does ONLY HE get to issue them?
What value military force if not as a potential aggressive deterrent?
Then, see who blinks.

I\'m sure he\'d realize that any archives of his country that survive likely
wouldn\'t remember him as a \"hero\" but, rather, the person who was
responsible for their apocalyptic living conditions.

I\'m pretty sure Putin is not a big fan of popular opinion...
But he supposedly loves his country and is ashamed at its
loss of standing. Do you think he\'d engage (or RISK engaging)
in a behavior that DEFINITELY would lower its standing
(even if the entire world burns, one thing for sure is Russia would
be the first in flames)
[Unless, of course, he thinks he can defeat all of NATO with his current
record of \"progress\" against Ukraine?]

One thing we know for sure, now, is Putin is Xi\'s lap dog and likely to
remain so till his death -- going to China, hat-in-hand for foodstuffs,
military supplies, etc.

Gotta wonder when China decides his credit isn\'t any good and opts for
something more tangible -- like RUSSIAN REAL ESTATE - to pay his dues.

Okay- China right now is in the position of not being able to feed itself.
They\'re importing food, not exporting it. And all of that was caused by
extreme weather catastrophes.

Military supplies from China? You can\'t be serious. Iran and maybe the
Houthis buy from them but I doubt Russia does- dunno for sure. Russia sells
missile components to N. Korea, who knows what else and to whom.

Don\'t believe the western press and their bs about China being a military
powerhouse- they\'re not. There\'s a LOT more to military capability than
sheer numbers. A recent modern example is ww2 Germany, which in many cases
was greatly outmanned and even outgunned, but their tactics and their
execution of those tactics were so excellent, they sliced their opponents to
shreds.
Russia is burning through men and material. How do you think he\'s
going to replenish those? Where is he going to spend his coin?
He\'s presently emulating North Korea in terms of access to world
markets. Kim is just as vulnerable -- there will be a time when
his bluff will be called and he\'ll have to suffer the consequences
(or lose face on the world stage and lose the power of that bluff)

As for \"tactics\", maybe Russia is hiding its strength? Willingly
losing men and material in the hope of lulling the rest of the
world into thinking it\'s NOT a superpower?? How does that jibe with
his obsessing over Russia\'s loss of stature?

That\'s how Russia fights wars. They don\'t care about losses. They lost about as many people just taking Grozny as they have in Ukraine so far.
 
On Friday, August 19, 2022 at 10:58:18 AM UTC-7, Fred Bloggs wrote:
....
> That\'s how Russia fights wars. They don\'t care about losses. They lost about as many people just taking Grozny as they have in Ukraine so far.

Unlikely, perhaps 1/10 of what they suffer in Ukraine.

\"Military casualties are unknown, but are estimated to run into the thousands of killed and wounded on both sides. The officially released figures on the Russian losses were 1,376 killed in action and 408 missing in action, yet the actual figure could be higher.\"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(1994%E2%80%931995)
 
On 8/19/2022 10:58 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
On Friday, August 19, 2022 at 1:44:11 PM UTC-4, Don Y wrote:
On 8/19/2022 10:22 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
On Friday, August 19, 2022 at 1:04:53 PM UTC-4, Don Y wrote:
On 8/19/2022 6:45 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
On Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 3:02:43 PM UTC-4, Don Y wrote:
On 8/17/2022 10:00 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
U.S. already has a solid track record of defeat, so it won\'t
surprise anyone if they bow out. The cold facts are that Ukraine is
of no value to the west, and it\'s certainly not worth the cost of a
nuclear war.
Exactly *what* would be worth the cost of a nuclear war -- so I\'m
ready when that situation arises?

Putin doesn\'t like the idea of the western powers setting up a border
state with a lot of military armament and surveillance capability that
could threaten their autonomy. He\'s very willing to nuke Europe and
possibly the U.S. over it. It\'s not what we think that\'s important, it\'s
what they think.
You didn\'t answer my question.

You\'ve just told me what you think he wants us to think.

Of course that\'s what he wants to think, that\'s why he said it.
And you STILL haven\'t answered my question.

I.e., under what circumstances do you \"call an implied nuclear bluff\"?

I have no idea since that circumstance is as remote as being able to sprout wings and fly...

Then what\'s your point?

Perhaps we should discard the weapons if we\'re not willing to use them?
 
On Friday, August 19, 2022 at 11:17:54 AM UTC-7, Ed Lee wrote:
On Friday, August 19, 2022 at 10:58:18 AM UTC-7, Fred Bloggs wrote:
...
That\'s how Russia fights wars. They don\'t care about losses. They lost about as many people just taking Grozny as they have in Ukraine so far.
Unlikely, perhaps 1/10 of what they suffer in Ukraine.

\"Military casualties are unknown, but are estimated to run into the thousands of killed and wounded on both sides. The officially released figures on the Russian losses were 1,376 killed in action and 408 missing in action, yet the actual figure could be higher.\"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(1994%E2%80%931995)

And US worry about Russia losing too fast, rather than winning.

\"It seems like while Ukraine would like to end the war quickly and decisively defeat Russian forces and drive them out of their country, U.S. policy almost seems designed to prolong the conflict hoping to bring about the collapse of Russia itself, both militarily and economically,\" Spoonts said.

https://www.newsweek.com/sean-spoonts-us-russia-ukraine-war-policy-goals-1735019
 
On 08/19/2022 11:04 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
n Friday, August 19, 2022 at 11:00:44 AM UTC-4, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Friday, August 19, 2022 at 11:45:34 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
On Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 3:02:43 PM UTC-4, Don Y wrote:
On 8/17/2022 10:00 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:
U.S. already has a solid track record of defeat, so it won\'t surprise anyone
if they bow out. The cold facts are that Ukraine is of no value to the west,
and it\'s certainly not worth the cost of a nuclear war.
Exactly *what* would be worth the cost of a nuclear war -- so I\'m
ready when that situation arises?
Putin doesn\'t like the idea of the western powers setting up a border state with a lot of military armament and surveillance capability that could threaten their autonomy. He\'s very willing to nuke Europe and possibly the U.S. over it.
So he\'s a suicidal lunatic, prepared to see his country bombed back to the stone age rather than see his \"autonomy\" threatened?
Russia is already in the stone age...

https://newsrnd.com/news/2022-07-31-grounding-of-f-35-aircraft--a-rare-event-that-requires-investigation-israel-today.H1Rj8CXaq.html

Sometimes a nice, well-rounded stone that works is better than cutting
edge technology that doesn\'t.
 

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