The Cat Ate My Steam Tables

[Dan Major]

On May 3, 11:04 am, Bret Cahill <BretCah...@peoplepc.com> wrote:

1. the petroleum is running out and it will be impossible to keep the
price from increasing exponentially, and

No, you make this statement with no citation, and no basis in fact.

Except for some fundies and looneytarianated folk -- even many AGW
deniers will admit Peak Oil as a fact -- it's general knowledge.

Oh, it's one of those "Everybody knows" kind of facts...

2. we have built hundreds or thousands of non oil power plants in the
past.
Who is "we",

Humans in industrial countries.

Well, I didn't think it was angry beavers...

Bio fuel does not conflict with electrification.  We need to fund
credible EtOH and bio diesel projects because some driving will always
be off the freeway and out of battery only range.

NO!! Absolutely NOT. Diverting corn to be used in making ethanol is

the absolutely WORST thing that can be done! I creates shortages of
food and raises the price of both food and energy. Not being one to
just "bash and dash", I ask you to consider the Fischer-Tropsch
process. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer_Tropsch South Africa
used this to produce all of its POL when its supply of crude oil was
cut off for political reasons. also see: http://www.syntroleum.com/main.aspx

So we'll always need _some_ liquid bio fuel.

In the meantime do what is "design ready."  Slot car the freeways.

And where would the electricity come from to power these "slots"?

Food distribution is critical to national security so funding can be
from DoD and DARPA .  Start out with I-80 and 99 in the Central Valley
so that people in NY City will be guaranteed to get low cost lettuce
and carrots no mater what happens to the price of liquid fuel.

Heavily dedicated routes like I-80 can be independent of the rest of
the system and can continue to operate even if politicians don't want
to continue slot car the entire interstate highway system.   Peterbilt
has a hybrid electric diesel tractor in full production.

I had a professor many years ago that did calculations and determined

that by the year 2000 the population of the nation would exceed the
ability of the farmers to supply food. He recomended planting all the
medians and right-of-ways with crops. What problem do you see in
growing food within ten feet of smog-belching vehicles? Even if you
could throw a switch and every vehicle on the road became a "clean
electric" car, there is still polution.

 

[Eric Gisin]

No, Brat is batshit insane. OPEC is controlling crude prices, not markets.

"Bret Cahill" <BretCahill@peoplepc.com> wrote in message
news:8d76e916-cdc5-4118-8800-f373144ff2ce@b1g2000vbc.googlegroups.com...

What's impossible is to find enough oil to keep the price of oil from
spiraling on world markets.

Oil prices are no longer tied to the market laws of supply and
demand. ďż˝

You are bat crap crazy.


Bret Cahill

 

[jim]

Eric Gisin wrote:

No, Brat is batshit insane. OPEC is controlling crude prices, not markets.

If OPEC decided to cut its prices in half you would probably be all bubbly and
giddy with how well the markets are working. What's up with that? Nobody is
required to buy OPEC oil.
Is your idea of a free market that Europeans and Americans can ask whatever
price they choose for the goods they sell, but the rest of the world is not
allowed to do the same? Or do you just not have a clue as to what a free market
really is?

-jim

"Bret Cahill" <BretCahill@peoplepc.com> wrote in message
news:8d76e916-cdc5-4118-8800-f373144ff2ce@b1g2000vbc.googlegroups.com...

What's impossible is to find enough oil to keep the price of oil from
spiraling on world markets.

Oil prices are no longer tied to the market laws of supply and
demand. ďż˝

You are bat crap crazy.

Bret Cahill

 

[jim]

Dan Major wrote:

On May 3, 11:04 am, Bret Cahill <BretCah...@peoplepc.com> wrote:


1. the petroleum is running out and it will be impossible to keep the
price from increasing exponentially, and

No, you make this statement with no citation, and no basis in fact.

Except for some fundies and looneytarianated folk -- even many AGW
deniers will admit Peak Oil as a fact -- it's general knowledge.

Oh, it's one of those "Everybody knows" kind of facts...

2. we have built hundreds or thousands of non oil power plants in the
past.
Who is "we",

Humans in industrial countries.

Well, I didn't think it was angry beavers...

Bio fuel does not conflict with electrification. We need to fund
credible EtOH and bio diesel projects because some driving will always
be off the freeway and out of battery only range.

NO!! Absolutely NOT. Diverting corn to be used in making ethanol is
the absolutely WORST thing that can be done! I creates shortages of
food and raises the price of both food and energy.

That is a nonsensical contradiction. How does raising food prices cause shortage
of food? Low world food prices caused by exports (mostly from USA) have in fact
been the only significant cause of world food shortages since WWII. That is, low
grain prices subsidized by 1st world governments have put millions of 3rd world
farmers out of business. Those are the facts whether it has been done
intentionally or not is irrelevant.
Keeping US Corn from flooding World grain markets has been the single best
thing that has happened to benefit 3rd world farmers in the last 50 years. And
3rd world farmers are quite capable of feeding 3rd world populations when given
the chance.

Not being one to
just "bash and dash", I ask you to consider the Fischer-Tropsch
process. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer_Tropsch South Africa
used this to produce all of its POL when its supply of crude oil was
cut off for political reasons. also see: http://www.syntroleum.com/main.aspx

So we'll always need _some_ liquid bio fuel.

In the meantime do what is "design ready." Slot car the freeways.

And where would the electricity come from to power these "slots"?

Food distribution is critical to national security so funding can be
from DoD and DARPA . Start out with I-80 and 99 in the Central Valley
so that people in NY City will be guaranteed to get low cost lettuce
and carrots no mater what happens to the price of liquid fuel.

Heavily dedicated routes like I-80 can be independent of the rest of
the system and can continue to operate even if politicians don't want
to continue slot car the entire interstate highway system. Peterbilt
has a hybrid electric diesel tractor in full production.

I had a professor many years ago that did calculations and determined
that by the year 2000 the population of the nation would exceed the
ability of the farmers to supply food. He recomended planting all the
medians and right-of-ways with crops. What problem do you see in
growing food within ten feet of smog-belching vehicles? Even if you
could throw a switch and every vehicle on the road became a "clean
electric" car, there is still polution.

 

[Bret Cahill]

1. the petroleum is running out and it will be impossible to keep the
price from increasing exponentially, and

No, you make this statement with no citation, and no basis in fact.

Except for some fundies and looneytarianated folk -- even many AGW
deniers will admit Peak Oil as a fact -- it's general knowledge.

Oh, it's one of those "Everybody knows" kind of facts...

It's one of those "everyone with an IQ above single digits knows" kind
of facts.

.. . .

I had a professor many years ago that did calculations and determined
that by the year 2000 the population of the nation would exceed the
ability of the farmers to supply food. ďż˝

At least now we know why you are so poorly educated you belong with
the dunces on sci.electronics.basics.


Bret Cahill

 

[Bret Cahill]

In three years the price of diesel will be $10/gallon and the cost of
electricity will be such a tiny fraction of the cost of fuel that it
can be ignored in back of envelope calculations.

If that happens, it will be because of the enormous carbon taxes to
"save the planet" and not because of the cost of crude oil.

Was carbon taxation running up the price of fuel last summer?

Nope,

So we agree that the price will spiral again even without carbon
taxation.

and running out of oil didn't cause the price of fuel to plummet
over that past several months.

So we agree as soon as an economic recovery is underway the price of
oil will once again start to spiral.

Expect the same thing to happen to electricity even if it goes nuclear,
which can't possibly happen within 10 years simply because of the time
it takes to get a plant approved and built.

The price of photovoltaic just keeps dropping.

And taxes keep rising.

You don't have to pay taxes. Call 1-800-FLY-4-LESs and book the next
one way flight to Mogadishu in low tax paradise Somalia.

See "United Kingdom".

Taxation increases with freedom. See _Spirit of Laws_ by Montesquieu.


Bret Cahill


"The English are fiercely attached to freedom."

-- Montesquieu

 

[Bret Cahill]

Last summer power from the grid was a fraction of the cost of liquid
fuel -- now it's about the same --
============================================
A gallon of gas is 36.6 KWhrs... around here electricity is about 15
cents a KWhr retail, 4 cents wholesale to large users. Lets compare
retail prices when gas was $3.66 a gallon... that would be about 10
cents per KWhr...
not surprisingly, I pay about 15 cents per KWhr for electricity from
the local coal plant near Orlando. This is upside down from your
assertion, so does that make your argument moot?

Around here the price is more like $.22/KWhr.

TVA has 6 gigawatts available at night @ 7 cents/ kW-hr.

A fact that is totally irrelevant in the real world.

Why is cost relevant where you live but irrelevant in the TN River
area?

You have a powerful congress critter?

Pelosi will support what's good for the entire country, not just Marin
County. After all, she must get the votes of other congresscritters.

If you allow for the lower conversion efficiency of a gas engine,
and the electrical conversion effiencies, that would make my cost
about $3/gal equivilant to run an electric car,

At 22 cents/kWhr it would come out to be about $2.20 for the energy
itself and another $2/gal equivalent for the battery cost, that is, no
road bed electrification, which is still cheaper than last summer's
gas.

36.6 KWhr in a gallon of gas.

36.6 x .3 = 10.98 KWhr to the wheels.

Less than a $1.50 for the equivalent amount of electric power in most
places and about 70 cents in the Tennessee River area at night.

10.98 KWhr / .8 charge and conversion efficiency = 13.725 KWhr electricity in.

That's the advantage of road bed electrification over battery only.

The efficiency is nearly 100%.

$.22/KWhr retail consumer cost x 13.725 KWhr = $3.0195

Maybe where you live. You'll need to post your utility's web page if
you want any credibility on the matter.

Most Americans pay far less and Canadians are only at 10 cents/ kW-hr


Bret Cahill

 

[Bret Cahill]

In three years the price of diesel will be $10/gallon and the cost of
electricity will be such a tiny fraction of the cost of fuel that it
can be ignored in back of envelope calculations.

If that happens, it will be because of the enormous carbon taxes to
"save the planet" and not because of the cost of crude oil.

Was carbon taxation running up the price of fuel last summer?

Expect the same thing to happen to electricity even if it goes nuclear,
which can't possibly happen within 10 years simply because of the time
it takes to get a plant approved and built.

The price of photovoltaic just keeps dropping.

Well here, we still have most of the population of this Canadian
province not yet directly connected to the North American electrical
grid but we do have standard province wide generation and distribution
and increasing industry. Also we have a small population for the
geographic area involved. So the cost will be higher than for densely
populated areas!
The cost of household/domestic  electricity, mostly generated by hydro
average is already around 10 cents per kilowatt hour. And wind
generation and photovoltaic haven't yet kicked in.
Coal is not used here at all now.
This has meant that the use of fuel oils, (there is no gas except
bottled propane here) with all the attendant problems of oil
pollution, oil tank leakage, chimney and furnace maintenance is or
already has mostly disappeared.
And electrcity as a fuel is 'delivered' continuously; by wires not by
oil delivery truck!
So the writing IS on the wall.

There next most cost effective solution was proposed by T. B.
Pickens. Get all the heavy trucks and buses on natural gas.

And that will only last as long as the natural gas.

If you want to make big infrastructure changes, why not go all the
way?

Electricity coupled with rechargeable electric transportation and
electrical light railway etc. is the way to go.

Battery costs are twice the cost of grid electricity where you live.

And that will help combat the pollution problem.
It will also reduce the industrially caused acid rain problem we are
experiencing. So that will improve the quality of our drinking water
and also, maybe allow fish stocks to recover!
It's been interesting living within this degree of change for the last
50+ years. Back then, the most standard heating sytem for the rapidly
improving housing then being built some ten years after WWII was the
oil fired hot air furnace. Inefficient, noisy, maintenance or
replacement prone after say 15 years. Many oil tank leakages. Needs
electrcity anyway to operate

But good for CH&P.

A lot of people froze in the ice storm last winter because they didn't
have electric power to start their furnance.

The nat'l guard should have been buying and distributing those cheap 1
kW gasoline gen sets that sell at Big Lots for $150.

and depends on oil deliveries sometime
over snow clogged roads! required (then anyway) a masonry or stainless
steel chimney. Also not very efficient at using the oil fuel.

The old ones need to go.


Bret Cahill

 

In sci.physics Bret Cahill <BretCahill@aol.com> wrote:

In three years the price of diesel will be $10/gallon and the cost of
electricity will be such a tiny fraction of the cost of fuel that it
can be ignored in back of envelope calculations.

If that happens, it will be because of the enormous carbon taxes to
"save the planet" and not because of the cost of crude oil.

Was carbon taxation running up the price of fuel last summer?

Nope,

So we agree that the price will spiral again even without carbon
taxation.

Nope.

It may, it may not.

and running out of oil didn't cause the price of fuel to plummet
over that past several months.

So we agree as soon as an economic recovery is underway the price of
oil will once again start to spiral.

Nope.

It may, it may not.

Expect the same thing to happen to electricity even if it goes nuclear,
which can't possibly happen within 10 years simply because of the time
it takes to get a plant approved and built.

The price of photovoltaic just keeps dropping.

And taxes keep rising.

You don't have to pay taxes. Call 1-800-FLY-4-LESs and book the next
one way flight to Mogadishu in low tax paradise Somalia.

A very childish response.

See "United Kingdom".

Taxation increases with freedom. See _Spirit of Laws_ by Montesquieu.

Taxation increases with increases in governmental meddling.


--
Jim Pennino

Remove .spam.sux to reply.

 

In sci.physics Bret Cahill <BretCahill@aol.com> wrote:

Last summer power from the grid was a fraction of the cost of liquid
fuel -- now it's about the same --
============================================
A gallon of gas is 36.6 KWhrs... around here electricity is about 15
cents a KWhr retail, 4 cents wholesale to large users. Lets compare
retail prices when gas was $3.66 a gallon... that would be about 10
cents per KWhr...
not surprisingly, I pay about 15 cents per KWhr for electricity from
the local coal plant near Orlando. This is upside down from your
assertion, so does that make your argument moot?

Around here the price is more like $.22/KWhr.

TVA has 6 gigawatts available at night @ 7 cents/ kW-hr.

A fact that is totally irrelevant in the real world.

Why is cost relevant where you live but irrelevant in the TN River
area?

Well, my cost is the same as about 40 million other people at the
minimum.

The night time wholesale cost of electricity has little to do with
the retail cost to consumers.

The TN River area has a miniscule fraction of the total US population.

Most driving of any kind is not done at night.

You have a powerful congress critter?

Pelosi will support what's good for the entire country, not just Marin
County. After all, she must get the votes of other congresscritters.

Irrelevant.

If you allow for the lower conversion efficiency of a gas engine,
and the electrical conversion effiencies, that would make my cost
about $3/gal equivilant to run an electric car,

At 22 cents/kWhr it would come out to be about $2.20 for the energy
itself and another $2/gal equivalent for the battery cost, that is, no
road bed electrification, which is still cheaper than last summer's
gas.

36.6 KWhr in a gallon of gas.

36.6 x .3 = 10.98 KWhr to the wheels.

Less than a $1.50 for the equivalent amount of electric power in most
places and about 70 cents in the Tennessee River area at night.

Irrelevant babble.

10.98 KWhr / .8 charge and conversion efficiency = 13.725 KWhr electricity in.

That's the advantage of road bed electrification over battery only.

That so called "advantage" means you divide 10.98 by .9 instead of .8.

The efficiency is nearly 100%.

Nonsense; real, big, electric motors get maybe 90% in round numbers.

$.22/KWhr retail consumer cost x 13.725 KWhr = $3.0195

Maybe where you live. You'll need to post your utility's web page if
you want any credibility on the matter.

The rates are not online for some reason.

In any case, even if the rate is half that, the equivelent electric
gallon goes down to $1.50, which is no big deal.

As I said, the big cost is in the infrastructure; the cost to run
electric vs gas is about a wash.

--
Jim Pennino

Remove .spam.sux to reply.