Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)...

[skybuck2000]

Skybuck\'s Thoughts on how the Corona Virus situation will develop in The Netherlands where children and students are allowed to go to school/college:

Students have a stronger immune system. This will allow the spreading of a stronger version of the Corona Virus.

When this stronger version of the Corona Virus is transmitted to older persons, more deaths will occur among older persons with weaker immune systems !

Bye,
Skybuck.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 5:35:29 PM UTC+10, skybuck2000 wrote:

Skybuck\'s Thoughts on how the Corona Virus situation will develop in The Netherlands where children and students are allowed to go to school/college:

Students have a stronger immune system. This will allow the spreading of a stronger version of the Corona Virus.

If there were a \"stronger version of the corona virus\" this might happen. There is some genetic variation between different strains of the corona virus - not a lot - and none of the variation seems to make any difference to the effectiveness of the virus as an infective agent or the damage it does when you do get infected with it.

The stronger immune system mostly lets younger people clear the virus from their system faster than older people can manage, and they are consequently less likely to get a severe infection, or spread as many virus particles, but the virus they spead is just the same as that spread by anybody else.

> When this stronger version of the Corona Virus is transmitted to older persons, more deaths will occur among older persons with weaker immune systems !

Skybuck reasons from a false premise to a false conclusion. He does make a habit of this.

Flyguy does seem to be competing with him for the position of the groups almost always wrong poster. Flyguy has only entered the competition recently but he has built up a dazzling tally of own goals. Skybuck has been at it for longer.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[skybuck2000]

On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 10:35:51 AM UTC+2, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 5:35:29 PM UTC+10, skybuck2000 wrote:
Skybuck\'s Thoughts on how the Corona Virus situation will develop in The Netherlands where children and students are allowed to go to school/college:

Students have a stronger immune system. This will allow the spreading of a stronger version of the Corona Virus.
If there were a \"stronger version of the corona virus\" this might happen. There is some genetic variation between different strains of the corona virus - not a lot - and none of the variation seems to make any difference to the effectiveness of the virus as an infective agent or the damage it does when you do get infected with it.

The stronger immune system mostly lets younger people clear the virus from their system faster than older people can manage, and they are consequently less likely to get a severe infection, or spread as many virus particles, but the virus they spead is just the same as that spread by anybody else.
When this stronger version of the Corona Virus is transmitted to older persons, more deaths will occur among older persons with weaker immune systems !
Skybuck reasons from a false premise to a false conclusion. He does make a habit of this.

Flyguy does seem to be competing with him for the position of the groups almost always wrong poster. Flyguy has only entered the competition recently but he has built up a dazzling tally of own goals. Skybuck has been at it for longer.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

There already is/are stronger versions of the Corona Virus.

I will take any bets in pascal coins lol as to the outcome of the coming winter and the rising death tol.

According to my prediction which is slightly inspired by computer simulations from 2009 which I performed myself the age at which people die will go down from 50 to maybe 45 and 40 and the number of deaths is going to rise this winter.

However the numbers of deaths rising in winter may also be caused by breath/air going upwards because of cold temperatures and thus spreading faster.

Also I have seen no reports or facts that prove your claims that young people clear the corona virus faster, do you have any links to research ?

So far I have only seen the quarantine time go down from 14 days to 10 days.. Still plenty of days to spread virus around.

Bye,
Skybuck.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 11:19:19 PM UTC+10, skybuck2000 wrote:

On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 10:35:51 AM UTC+2, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 5:35:29 PM UTC+10, skybuck2000 wrote:
Skybuck\'s Thoughts on how the Corona Virus situation will develop in The Netherlands where children and students are allowed to go to school/college:

Students have a stronger immune system. This will allow the spreading of a stronger version of the Corona Virus.
If there were a \"stronger version of the corona virus\" this might happen. There is some genetic variation between different strains of the corona virus - not a lot - and none of the variation seems to make any difference to the effectiveness of the virus as an infective agent or the damage it does when you do get infected with it.

The stronger immune system mostly lets younger people clear the virus from their system faster than older people can manage, and they are consequently less likely to get a severe infection, or spread as many virus particles, but the virus they spead is just the same as that spread by anybody else.
When this stronger version of the Corona Virus is transmitted to older persons, more deaths will occur among older persons with weaker immune systems !
Skybuck reasons from a false premise to a false conclusion. He does make a habit of this.

Flyguy does seem to be competing with him for the position of the groups almost always wrong poster. Flyguy has only entered the competition recently but he has built up a dazzling tally of own goals. Skybuck has been at it for longer.

There already is/are stronger versions of the Corona Virus.

This is Flyguy\'s argument by repeated assertion. It isn\'t remotely convincing.

> I will take any bets in pascal coins lol as to the outcome of the coming winter and the rising death toll.

Of course you will. The result wouldn\'t have anything to do with the virus getting \"weaker\" or \"stronger\" but rather depends on who catches it. Younger people are much less likely to die of it, but that\'s it.

According to my prediction which is slightly inspired by computer simulations from 2009 which I performed myself the age at which people die will go down from 50 to maybe 45 and 40 and the number of deaths is going to rise this winter.

Computer simulations aren\'t any better than the assumptions on which they are based. At least one of yours does seem to be total rubbish.

> However the numbers of deaths rising in winter may also be caused by breath/air going upwards because of cold temperatures and thus spreading faster..

If the deaths do rise in winter. They haven\'t in Australia (which doesn\'t have much of winter, but does see more flu deaths in our winter - not this year, as it happens because social distancing also works to slow the spread of flu.

> Also I have seen no reports or facts that prove your claims that young people clear the corona virus faster, do you have any links to research?

You clearly haven\'t been looking, and wouldn\'t understand the evidence if I did go to the trouble of digging it out.

> So far I have only seen the quarantine time go down from 14 days to 10 days. Still plenty of days to spread virus around.

Quarantine times deal with the worse cases of asymptomatic infection, not the average time that infected people continue to spread the virus - which essentially keeps on happening until the immune system starts killing of the virus faster than it can reproduce.

You start spreading the virus about 36 hours before you show signs of infection (if you show signs of infection, which doesn\'t happen in 15+/-3% of cases) and keep on doing it until the immune system kills of the virus in your body, or until the virus kills you.

Do try to think about what\'s going on, rather than inventing non-existent \"stronger\" and \"weaker\" viruses.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Ricketty C]

On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 9:19:19 AM UTC-4, skybuck2000 wrote:

On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 10:35:51 AM UTC+2, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 5:35:29 PM UTC+10, skybuck2000 wrote:
Skybuck\'s Thoughts on how the Corona Virus situation will develop in The Netherlands where children and students are allowed to go to school/college:

Students have a stronger immune system. This will allow the spreading of a stronger version of the Corona Virus.
If there were a \"stronger version of the corona virus\" this might happen. There is some genetic variation between different strains of the corona virus - not a lot - and none of the variation seems to make any difference to the effectiveness of the virus as an infective agent or the damage it does when you do get infected with it.

The stronger immune system mostly lets younger people clear the virus from their system faster than older people can manage, and they are consequently less likely to get a severe infection, or spread as many virus particles, but the virus they spead is just the same as that spread by anybody else.
When this stronger version of the Corona Virus is transmitted to older persons, more deaths will occur among older persons with weaker immune systems !
Skybuck reasons from a false premise to a false conclusion. He does make a habit of this.

Flyguy does seem to be competing with him for the position of the groups almost always wrong poster. Flyguy has only entered the competition recently but he has built up a dazzling tally of own goals. Skybuck has been at it for longer.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

There already is/are stronger versions of the Corona Virus.

If there are \"stronger\" versions of the virus (whatever is meant by \"stronger\"), why would they only proliferate in the young??? What does \"stronger\" mean that it would not spread more readily in all age groups and displace the \"weaker\" strains?


> According to my prediction which is slightly inspired by computer simulations from 2009 which I performed myself the age at which people die will go down from 50 to maybe 45 and 40 and the number of deaths is going to rise this winter.

There are many predicting higher death counts this winter. There is no cutoff age for dying from this disease. Without more concrete predictions there is no way to test your ideas.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[server]

On Mon, 28 Sep 2020 00:35:23 -0700 (PDT), skybuck2000
<skybuck2000@hotmail.com> wrote:

Skybuck\'s Thoughts on how the Corona Virus situation will develop in The Netherlands where children and students are allowed to go to school/college:

Students have a stronger immune system. This will allow the spreading of a stronger version of the Corona Virus.

When this stronger version of the Corona Virus is transmitted to older persons, more deaths will occur among older persons with weaker immune systems !

The opposite seems to be happening. More cases, few deaths.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Ricketty C]

On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 12:00:01 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 28 Sep 2020 00:35:23 -0700 (PDT), skybuck2000
skybuck2000@hotmail.com> wrote:

Skybuck\'s Thoughts on how the Corona Virus situation will develop in The Netherlands where children and students are allowed to go to school/college:

Students have a stronger immune system. This will allow the spreading of a stronger version of the Corona Virus.

When this stronger version of the Corona Virus is transmitted to older persons, more deaths will occur among older persons with weaker immune systems !

The opposite seems to be happening. More cases, few deaths.

Your data is old. The death rate is going back up in the US. Since the end of July the infection rate has dropped by close to half, the death rate has only dropped by a third.

There are any number of reasons why the death rate was high in the first wave in the US, overcrowded hospitals, lack of experience with this disease, lack of treatment options. More recently we have avoided extreme overcrowding hospitals and are using various treatment options to help prevent deaths.

Larkin\'s continual focus on the data that makes him feel happy (as if there were anything about this disease to make anyone feel happy) and supports his political beliefs. Anyone who looks at the data as they are realizes the single biggest factor in this disease is simple, human behavior. When we strictly limit exposure to the disease the infection rate falls. When we force openings in spite of high infection numbers the new infection rate explodes.

In Maryland they opened restaurants to 75% capacity from 50% capacity. That is absurd. That provides virtually no protection against the disease while the disease has the highest levels of current infection than any other time. That\'s the number that results in infection, the currently infected. Currently 1% of the Maryland population is infected. 1 in 100. Go to a restaurant with 100 customers and workers and you have a very non-zero chance of encountering someone who is infected.

The US is fucked because of the lack of understanding of this disease by the people making decisions about it. It would seem a total lack of understanding.

At one point a Governor (not sure which one, maybe Maryland) justified his decision to open businesses by saying it was in line with \"his\" experts\' advice. Is that like \"alternative facts\"?

We can see clearly how wrongly we are handling this disease by looking at nearly any other country. There are few that have the same level of infection and the same new infection rate, per capita or even total. Anyone trying to make the US look good in comparison to other places in the world have to really work to select just the right statistic and even then we are still in the top handful.

People here like to disparage Bill Sloman, but has explained many times how a primary purpose of universal healthcare is to deal with epidemics. The US could have used universal healthcare during this pandemic when so many have lost their jobs. No, the US has not done an acceptable job. I think the people in charge should be held accountable. \"You\'re Fired\"!!!

--

Rick C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[skybuck2000]

Flyguy does seem to be competing with him for the position of the groups almost always wrong poster. Flyguy has only entered the competition recently but he has built up a dazzling tally of own goals. Skybuck has been at it for longer.

There already is/are stronger versions of the Corona Virus.
This is Flyguy\'s argument by repeated assertion. It isn\'t remotely convincing.

Some countries have much more deaths than other countries and thus one can come to that conclusion that there exist more strong versions.

But for the sake of discussion let\'s google it and see what is found:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200803105246.htm

At least this article mentions 6 strains of the corona virus, while in reality it is probably already much more, so why this article only mentions 6 while the tree is already much larger is kinda weird.

But you know what I am going to throw in animals into the mix something that may have been overlooked by this article and researchers.

In the Netherlands animals have been infected and are killed at a mass level:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/2020/06/covid19-forces-mink-farm-end-netherlands/

There ya go.... minks infected with corona virus. Is the corona virus mutating within minsks ?! Will it then return to human beings.

The spanish influenze virus of 1918 killed babies and young children. If the corona virus where to steal/borrow/copy code from such a virus it may start killing our babies/children as well ?! What will we or the politicians do than ?!

I\'ll take bets for pascal coin that this will become reality in perhaps 5 years. An indicator of this reality could be dolphins with similiar corona virusses dieing as well, I am not yet sure if young dolphins died too with same kind of virus.

Also keep in mind it only takes 1 mutation in 1 virus particle to change the outcome of this pandemic. Just one corona virus that mutates into a more dangerous version and we could be facing DOOOOOooooommmmmm.

So the article\'s conclusion that the virus strains are similiar is a false sense of safety. It\'s just a ticking mutation time bomb waiting to happen.

I will take any bets in pascal coins lol as to the outcome of the coming winter and the rising death toll.

Of course you will. The result wouldn\'t have anything to do with the virus getting \"weaker\" or \"stronger\" but rather depends on who catches it. Younger people are much less likely to die of it, but that\'s it.

Let\'s consider it a seperate bet.

My prediction is in the winter there will be more deaths ? If anybody disgrees I will take that bet lol.

My other prediction is the age of deaths will go down ? Any takers ?
This one I am less sure of but for the fun of it I will take bets.

Anybody known of a cryptocoin-internet/web-service where we can bet on events outcome ?

Maybe I make one myself just for kicks and just for this corona virus, sounds cool and sound maybe profiteable !

According to my prediction which is slightly inspired by computer simulations from 2009 which I performed myself the age at which people die will go down from 50 to maybe 45 and 40 and the number of deaths is going to rise this winter.

Computer simulations aren\'t any better than the assumptions on which they are based. At least one of yours does seem to be total rubbish.

There is nothing rubbish about seeing mutations in actions. It\'s real and it works and it could very well be dangerous.

However the numbers of deaths rising in winter may also be caused by breath/air going upwards because of cold temperatures and thus spreading faster.

If the deaths do rise in winter. They haven\'t in Australia (which doesn\'t have much of winter, but does see more flu deaths in our winter - not this year, as it happens because social distancing also works to slow the spread of flu.

Also I have seen no reports or facts that prove your claims that young people clear the corona virus faster, do you have any links to research?

You clearly haven\'t been looking, and wouldn\'t understand the evidence if I did go to the trouble of digging it out.

I am listening but I am pretty sure you cannot provide any links whatso ever, now it\'s you who will have to backup your bogus claims as far as I am concerned.

The web is actually full with the opposite children spreading the virus much more than expected, as well as many concerns about students spreading it.

So far I have only seen the quarantine time go down from 14 days to 10 days. Still plenty of days to spread virus around.

Quarantine times deal with the worse cases of asymptomatic infection, not the average time that infected people continue to spread the virus - which essentially keeps on happening until the immune system starts killing of the virus faster than it can reproduce.

Let\'s call it spread-duration then or something. Some links were found where children can infect others for 3 weeks unnoticed/invisible without symptoms. Thus a much more worse case scenerio than initially imagined.

This also conflicts with dutch reports that children would not be responsible for the spread of viruses hence I do not trust the dutch goverment and it\'s advisery organization that much anymore.

Common sense almost dictates that during a virus crisis you don\'t put human beings next to each other, though this is now happening in the Netherlands which I am sure will be a terrible decision and situation that will be proven the coming months as children/students are being send back to school.

You start spreading the virus about 36 hours before you show signs of infection (if you show signs of infection, which doesn\'t happen in 15+/-3% of cases) and keep on doing it until the immune system kills of the virus in your body, or until the virus kills you.

Do try to think about what\'s going on, rather than inventing non-existent \"stronger\" and \"weaker\" viruses.

There are parts of the world that are immune to the corona virus and researchers are trying to figure out why. This can be interpreted as strong virus vs weak virus.

Right now to those that are immune the current corona virus looks weak or even non-threatening.

It will be a matter of time before the corona virus finds a way to infect those as well.

Perhaps strong vs weak is bad wording one could also call it \"infection-potential\"or \"\'infection potent\".

The virus or the universe/evolver is literally trying to find a way into our bodies and immune system. It is a search algorithm trying to find a better weapon.

This is ultimately what the universe might actually be. Just a computer simulation ran by externals to find/search for weapons.

This could just be another biological weapon and cure/defense for them to find/use.

There is a very strong similiarity between all life forms: fighting for survival, adepting to new threats, finding ways to fight/weaponize the body etc.

One has to wonder why this similarity is so prevalent hence the conclusion: the universe is a weapon lab ran by externals.

Quite a cool conclusion. I throw it in the mix for you, something to think about. Not that it will help us much, except that this is truely a fight/war.

All kinds of tactics can be applied during a war.

For now my recommended tactic would be:

Rely on your immune system to defend you, eat your vitamines/mixed food.

Isolate/hide yourself from others.

Do not trust the goverment or other officials. During the outbreak of 1918 they lied to the public and concealed the thruth, what makes you think they are telling you everything now ?

Don\'t give me that bullshit of assumptions and made up crap by Skybuck.

Google/research it first otherwise you just look like a troll.

For now I will discuss this even with a troll, it might give others some more insight none the less.

One last thing I case you still don\'t get it. The goverments are only telling you half-thruths but are conceiling still parts of it, this sucks.

Bye for now,
Skybuck.

 

[skybuck2000]

On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 7:18:27 PM UTC+2, Ricketty C wrote:

On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 12:00:01 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 28 Sep 2020 00:35:23 -0700 (PDT), skybuck2000
skybu...@hotmail.com> wrote:

Skybuck\'s Thoughts on how the Corona Virus situation will develop in The Netherlands where children and students are allowed to go to school/college:

Students have a stronger immune system. This will allow the spreading of a stronger version of the Corona Virus.

When this stronger version of the Corona Virus is transmitted to older persons, more deaths will occur among older persons with weaker immune systems !

The opposite seems to be happening. More cases, few deaths.
Your data is old. The death rate is going back up in the US. Since the end of July the infection rate has dropped by close to half, the death rate has only dropped by a third.

So basically death rate is now higher which seems to confirm my hypothesis the corona virus will find a way to become stronger, especially if given the chance to do so.

You people in the USA should have learned how evolution worked when you tried to exterminate the fire ants.

Your attempts at exterminating these ants just made them stronger =D

The weak ones died, the stronger survived your chemicals, breeding the strong led to even more strong ants.

Toads have become quicker in Australia as well (bigger/larger legs), in an alarming rate which surprised many \"scientist\" HAHA !

And these are no \"simple\" virusses but complex living organisms.

Bye,
Skybuck.

 

[Fred Bloggs]

On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 3:35:29 AM UTC-4, skybuck2000 wrote:

Skybuck\'s Thoughts on how the Corona Virus situation will develop in The Netherlands where children and students are allowed to go to school/college:

Students have a stronger immune system. This will allow the spreading of a stronger version of the Corona Virus.

When this stronger version of the Corona Virus is transmitted to older persons, more deaths will occur among older persons with weaker immune systems !

Bye,
Skybuck.

Doesn\'t work that way.

 

[John Larkin]

On Mon, 28 Sep 2020 11:51:33 -0700 (PDT), skybuck2000
<skybuck2000@hotmail.com> wrote:

On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 7:18:27 PM UTC+2, Ricketty C wrote:
On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 12:00:01 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 28 Sep 2020 00:35:23 -0700 (PDT), skybuck2000
skybu...@hotmail.com> wrote:

Skybuck\'s Thoughts on how the Corona Virus situation will develop in The Netherlands where children and students are allowed to go to school/college:

Students have a stronger immune system. This will allow the spreading of a stronger version of the Corona Virus.

When this stronger version of the Corona Virus is transmitted to older persons, more deaths will occur among older persons with weaker immune systems !

The opposite seems to be happening. More cases, few deaths.
Your data is old. The death rate is going back up in the US. Since the end of July the infection rate has dropped by close to half, the death rate has only dropped by a third.

So basically death rate is now higher which seems to confirm my hypothesis the corona virus will find a way to become stronger, especially if given the chance to do so.

Good grief, look at the data. France is typical:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

Lots of cases recently, very few deaths. That pattern is common in
europe.

UK is similar, a big second case peak but few deaths. In April, deaths
peaked *before* cases peaked.

In the US, deaths peaked in April and cases peaked in July... if we
are to believe the data.

The way viruses usually evolve is to become more infectous and less
deadly.

 

[John Larkin]

On Mon, 28 Sep 2020 12:33:25 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
<bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 3:35:29 AM UTC-4, skybuck2000 wrote:
Skybuck\'s Thoughts on how the Corona Virus situation will develop in The Netherlands where children and students are allowed to go to school/college:

Students have a stronger immune system. This will allow the spreading of a stronger version of the Corona Virus.

When this stronger version of the Corona Virus is transmitted to older persons, more deaths will occur among older persons with weaker immune systems !

Bye,
Skybuck.

Doesn\'t work that way.

Maybe the most suceptable old folks were killed off early in the
pandemic. That has implications.

 

[whit3rd]

On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 6:19:19 AM UTC-7, skybuck2000 wrote:

> There already is/are stronger versions of the Corona Virus.

You don\'t know that; there\'s some genetic branching, true, but \"stronger\" is
a vague and untestable hypothesis. A disease that acts effectively in young
hosts might NOT do well in older folk (with immunities builtup over a lifetime to
similar viruses). That\'s how the 1918 flu epidemic progressed, it\'s a TESTED
hypothesis in that case.

> Also I have seen no reports or facts that prove your claims that young people clear the corona virus faster, do you have any links to research ?

The young people with stronger immune systems (your claim) are somehow not
convincing you that they clear the corona virus faster? That\'s sophistry, there.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, September 29, 2020 at 6:21:45 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:

On Mon, 28 Sep 2020 12:33:25 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 3:35:29 AM UTC-4, skybuck2000 wrote:
Skybuck\'s Thoughts on how the Corona Virus situation will develop in The Netherlands where children and students are allowed to go to school/college:

Students have a stronger immune system. This will allow the spreading of a stronger version of the Corona Virus.

When this stronger version of the Corona Virus is transmitted to older persons, more deaths will occur among older persons with weaker immune systems !

Doesn\'t work that way.

Maybe the most susceptible old folks were killed off early in the pandemic. That has implications.

All old folk seem to be equally susceptible (until they had the disease and survived it). John Larkin seems to want to imagine that he might not be.

If all the particularly susceptible were to have been killed off early in the pandemic, they\'d all have had to be exposed to the virus. In reality some old folks home have lost a number of residents, and most have lost none (because nobody who visited them had the virus).

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, September 29, 2020 at 6:19:45 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:

On Mon, 28 Sep 2020 11:51:33 -0700 (PDT), skybuck2000
skybu...@hotmail.com> wrote:

On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 7:18:27 PM UTC+2, Ricketty C wrote:
On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 12:00:01 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Mon, 28 Sep 2020 00:35:23 -0700 (PDT), skybuck2000
skybu...@hotmail.com> wrote:

Skybuck\'s Thoughts on how the Corona Virus situation will develop in The Netherlands where children and students are allowed to go to school/college:

Students have a stronger immune system. This will allow the spreading of a stronger version of the Corona Virus.

When this stronger version of the Corona Virus is transmitted to older persons, more deaths will occur among older persons with weaker immune systems !

The opposite seems to be happening. More cases, few deaths.
Your data is old. The death rate is going back up in the US. Since the end of July the infection rate has dropped by close to half, the death rate has only dropped by a third.

So basically death rate is now higher which seems to confirm my hypothesis the corona virus will find a way to become stronger, especially if given the chance to do so.

Good grief, look at the data. France is typical:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

Lots of cases recently, very few deaths. That pattern is common in Europe..

UK is similar, a big second case peak but few deaths. In April, deaths
peaked *before* cases peaked.

John Larkin seems to have trouble with the idea that people take some time to die of Covid19. For a week or two after the US case per day rate went up from 30k per day to 60k per day he was telling us that the death rate hadn\'t gone up, and didn\'t stop doing it until ti did go up.

The daily case rate peaked on the 22nd July, the death rate on the 4th August. The death rate didn\'t get as high, which seems to reflect that fact that older people had got the message that the disease was more likely to kill them, and were more careful about avoiding getting infected.

In the US, deaths peaked in April and cases peaked in July... if we are to believe the data.

The way viruses usually evolve is to become more infectious and less deadly.

This doesn\'t seem to be happening with Covid-19, perhaps because the proof-reading element in it\'s replicating enzyme is slowing down the rate of mutation.

Any virus is under selective pressure to become more infectious, and making infected people less sick and more mobile while they are spreading the virus is part of that. There\'s absolutely no selective pressure to make the virus more or less lethal.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Martin Brown]

On 29/09/2020 15:48, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Wednesday, September 30, 2020 at 12:19:29 AM UTC+10, Martin Brown
wrote:

The people who appear to be in maximum danger have a genetic defect
in the code for interferon-1 or antibodies against their own
interferon. Reported last week from the big data analysis of 1000
individual DNA sequences of people badly affected vs those hardly
touched by it.

Not a lot of comfort there, even for people who have had their genome
sequenced. Unless of course companies like 23andme are telling some
of their customers that they should be very careful to avoid getting
infected by Covid-19

It may yet provide a way to test, identify and screen out the most
vulnerable from front line positions before they get seriously ill.

https://www.genengnews.com/news/severe-covid-19-cases-linked-to-genes-autoimmunity-and-interferon-disruption/

More is coming out every day as they seem to have several papers now
from various groups around the world. A larger study follows.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[whit3rd]

On Tuesday, September 29, 2020 at 7:48:47 AM UTC-7, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Wednesday, September 30, 2020 at 12:19:29 AM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
On 28/09/2020 21:47, whit3rd wrote:

A disease that acts effectively in young hosts might NOT do well in older folk (with immunities built up over a lifetime to
similar viruses). That\'s how the 1918 flu epidemic progressed, it\'s a TESTED hypothesis in that case.

I wonder how the hypothesis got tested? We only recently got hold of samples of the 1918 flu (from bodies buried in permafrost) and working out the antibody inventory of people who were of mature years in 1918could be tricky.

It was the statistics on older folk having a better survival probability than the young.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, September 30, 2020 at 5:00:55 AM UTC+10, whit3rd wrote:

On Tuesday, September 29, 2020 at 7:48:47 AM UTC-7, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, September 30, 2020 at 12:19:29 AM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
On 28/09/2020 21:47, whit3rd wrote:

A disease that acts effectively in young hosts might NOT do well in older folk (with immunities built up over a lifetime to
similar viruses). That\'s how the 1918 flu epidemic progressed, it\'s a TESTED hypothesis in that case.

I wonder how the hypothesis got tested? We only recently got hold of samples of the 1918 flu (from bodies buried in permafrost) and working out the antibody inventory of people who were of mature years in 1918 could be tricky.

It was the statistics on older folk having a better survival probability than the young.

So it\'s an inference from the statistics long after the event. In order to test that kind of hypothesis it\'s nice to work on only part of the data, so that you can check whether the hypothesis that looks good on the data you\'ve been over in detail, still looks good on data that you haven\'t had a chance to cherry-pick in some way.

You don\'t have to be consciously trying to cheat to do this kind of cherry-picking - your sub-conscious will do it for you.

If you could find sharp age cut-offs in the data that tied in to known flu epidemics, the hypothesis could become pretty plausible.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[whit3rd]

On Wednesday, September 30, 2020 at 8:23:30 AM UTC-7, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Wednesday, September 30, 2020 at 5:00:55 AM UTC+10, whit3rd wrote:
On Tuesday, September 29, 2020 at 7:48:47 AM UTC-7, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, September 30, 2020 at 12:19:29 AM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
On 28/09/2020 21:47, whit3rd wrote:

A disease that acts effectively in young hosts might NOT do well in older folk (with immunities built up over a lifetime to
similar viruses). That\'s how the 1918 flu epidemic progressed, it\'s a TESTED hypothesis in that case.

I wonder how the hypothesis got tested? We only recently got hold of samples of the 1918 flu (from bodies buried in permafrost) and working out the antibody inventory of people who were of mature years in 1918 could be tricky.

It was the statistics on older folk having a better survival probability than the young.

So it\'s an inference from the statistics long after the event. In order to test that kind of hypothesis it\'s nice to work on only part of the data, so that you can check whether the hypothesis that looks good on the data you\'ve been over in detail, still looks good on data that you haven\'t had a chance to cherry-pick in some way.

You don\'t have to be consciously trying to cheat to do this kind of cherry-picking - your sub-conscious will do it for you.

There\'s no need to pick small data sets for the 1918 flu, the large data sets support the hypothesis.
Statistical analysis is not cherry-picking in the sense of using a small sample, in a pandemic
that generated millions of death records. Statistical analysis isn\'t done by the sub-conscious.
When or if another explanation for the age distribution arises, it can compete with the previous-similar-infection
hypothesis.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, October 1, 2020 at 2:52:50 AM UTC+10, whit3rd wrote:

On Wednesday, September 30, 2020 at 8:23:30 AM UTC-7, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, September 30, 2020 at 5:00:55 AM UTC+10, whit3rd wrote:
On Tuesday, September 29, 2020 at 7:48:47 AM UTC-7, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, September 30, 2020 at 12:19:29 AM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
On 28/09/2020 21:47, whit3rd wrote:

A disease that acts effectively in young hosts might NOT do well in older folk (with immunities built up over a lifetime to
similar viruses). That\'s how the 1918 flu epidemic progressed, it\'s a TESTED hypothesis in that case.

I wonder how the hypothesis got tested? We only recently got hold of samples of the 1918 flu (from bodies buried in permafrost) and working out the antibody inventory of people who were of mature years in 1918 could be tricky.

It was the statistics on older folk having a better survival probability than the young.

So it\'s an inference from the statistics long after the event. In order to test that kind of hypothesis it\'s nice to work on only part of the data, so that you can check whether the hypothesis that looks good on the data you\'ve been over in detail, still looks good on data that you haven\'t had a chance to cherry-pick in some way.

You don\'t have to be consciously trying to cheat to do this kind of cherry-picking - your sub-conscious will do it for you.

There\'s no need to pick small data sets for the 1918 flu, the large data sets support the hypothesis.
Statistical analysis is not cherry-picking in the sense of using a small sample, in a pandemic
that generated millions of death records.

It depends what you are looking for. If you keep on going through the data twenty times, you are likely to find one 95% correlation and it will probably be spurious.

> Statistical analysis isn\'t done by the sub-conscious.

Picking out what to analyse for - what might correlate with what - does depend on choosing what to look at .

When or if another explanation for the age distribution arises, it can compete with the previous-similar-infection
hypothesis.

Ho hum. And the other hypotheses that you should have though of, but didn\'t.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney