static memory vs HD price crossover?

[SpamLover]

I can imagine the day in which mass memory units
(the stuff we universally associate with hard disks today)
will be solid state.

There are examples of ready made or hackable
all-solid state IDE drives.

I have seen a 4GB ss IDE "disks"
proposed for extreme shockproof applications.
Shockproof referred to mechanical shock, not to sticker shock.

I've been told of flash card-to-IDE adaptors.
that can be stuck in a regular PC and let it boot from flash.



Not cheap, currently justified in special applications only.
But I think the writing is on the wall.



Please make your guess:

When will static memory (flash, magnetic, whatever)
allow cheaper-than-hard-disk IDE mass memory devices
of, say, 10 - 20 - 80 GB capacity?

Bear in mind that while semiconductor prices are falling,
so are prices on HD's.

 

[Watson A.Name - "Watt Sun]

In article <95a201e0.0311060057.ae4380c@posting.google.com>,
n1jpr@hotmail.com mentioned...

I can imagine the day in which mass memory units
(the stuff we universally associate with hard disks today)
will be solid state.

There are examples of ready made or hackable
all-solid state IDE drives.

I have seen a 4GB ss IDE "disks"
proposed for extreme shockproof applications.
Shockproof referred to mechanical shock, not to sticker shock.

I've been told of flash card-to-IDE adaptors.
that can be stuck in a regular PC and let it boot from flash.

I have an Adtron adapter. It's just a PC board with the connectors.

I think there's a jumper to switch from master/slave. But it's really
simple. Stick the PCMCIA card with the CF card in it into the adapter
and it's an IDE HD.

Not cheap, currently justified in special applications only.
But I think the writing is on the wall.

Please make your guess:

When will static memory (flash, magnetic, whatever)
allow cheaper-than-hard-disk IDE mass memory devices
of, say, 10 - 20 - 80 GB capacity?

It doesn't have to do with when it will be cheaper, it has to do with
when the public will be willing to pay the extra to buy this feature.
And then soon after, the industry will gain enough volume to reduce
prices further, until it will be like flat panel displays, the prices
will become even more competitive. There may never be a point where
the price per MB gets below that of rotating memory, maybe because the
HD makers will continue to lower prices and increase drive capacity.
After all, their business depends on it. ;-)

Bear in mind that while semiconductor prices are falling,
so are prices on HD's.

And there are similar alternative devices. They have ramdisks,
basically RAM with a battery backup, aka UPS. And there are other
markets, such as larger, more energy efficient non-volatile memory for
PDAs, etc.

--
@@F@r@o@m@@O@r@a@n@g@e@@C@o@u@n@t@y@,@@C@a@l@,@@w@h@e@r@e@@
###Got a Question about ELECTRONICS? Check HERE First:###
http://users.pandora.be/educypedia/electronics/databank.htm
My email address is whitelisted. *All* email sent to it
goes directly to the trash unless you add NOSPAM in the
Subject: line with other stuff. alondra101 <at> hotmail.com
Don't be ripped off by the big book dealers. Go to the URL
that will give you a choice and save you money(up to half).
http://www.everybookstore.com You'll be glad you did!
Just when you thought you had all this figured out, the gov't
changed it: http://physics.nist.gov/cuu/Units/binary.html
@@t@h@e@@a@f@f@l@u@e@n@t@@m@e@e@t@@t@h@e@@E@f@f@l@u@e@n@t@@

 

[DarkMatter]

On 6 Nov 2003 00:57:07 -0800, n1jpr@hotmail.com (SpamLover) Gave us:

I can imagine the day in which mass memory units
(the stuff we universally associate with hard disks today)
will be solid state.

There are examples of ready made or hackable
all-solid state IDE drives.

I have seen a 4GB ss IDE "disks"
proposed for extreme shockproof applications.
Shockproof referred to mechanical shock, not to sticker shock.

I've been told of flash card-to-IDE adaptors.
that can be stuck in a regular PC and let it boot from flash.



Not cheap, currently justified in special applications only.
But I think the writing is on the wall.



Please make your guess:

When will static memory (flash, magnetic, whatever)
allow cheaper-than-hard-disk IDE mass memory devices
of, say, 10 - 20 - 80 GB capacity?

Bear in mind that while semiconductor prices are falling,
so are prices on HD's.

Laptop drives are pretty rugged little critters.

However, the military is implementing a PDA that will likely have SS
mass storage in it. Regardless of the price. :-]

 

[Michael Black]

SpamLover (n1jpr@hotmail.com) writes:

I can imagine the day in which mass memory units
(the stuff we universally associate with hard disks today)
will be solid state.

This sort of thing has been said for twenty years.

Back then, it was RAM drives to replace floppy drives. It was expensive,
and didn't make much inroads.

Then, the price of RAM became cheap enough, but the need for storage
space had increased, so it was still just as costly.

The price of RAM, and the price of hard drives keep dropping, but
everyone always wants more of both.

People don't want to stop and consolidate, they want more RAM and
they want that bigger drive, and they buy programs that require more
and more of each.

So there's no time to balance it, and say "we can replace that 1gig
hard drive with a memory-based drive", because by the time it becomes
feasible, everyone has moved on.

Michael

 

[CWatters]

The Psion Series 3 had them years ago



"SpamLover" <n1jpr@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:95a201e0.0311060057.ae4380c@posting.google.com...

I can imagine the day in which mass memory units
(the stuff we universally associate with hard disks today)
will be solid state.

There are examples of ready made or hackable
all-solid state IDE drives.

I have seen a 4GB ss IDE "disks"
proposed for extreme shockproof applications.
Shockproof referred to mechanical shock, not to sticker shock.

I've been told of flash card-to-IDE adaptors.
that can be stuck in a regular PC and let it boot from flash.



Not cheap, currently justified in special applications only.
But I think the writing is on the wall.



Please make your guess:

When will static memory (flash, magnetic, whatever)
allow cheaper-than-hard-disk IDE mass memory devices
of, say, 10 - 20 - 80 GB capacity?

Bear in mind that while semiconductor prices are falling,
so are prices on HD's.

 

[Zak]

SpamLover wrote:

I've been told of flash card-to-IDE adaptors.
that can be stuck in a regular PC and let it boot from flash.

Flash wears out quicker than a drive if you do a lot of writes...

FWIW compactflash cards were designed to behave nearly the same as an
IDE harddrive.


Thomas

 

[Watson A.Name - "Watt Sun]

In article <bodn8m$pt5$1@freenet9.carleton.ca>,
et472@FreeNet.Carleton.CA mentioned...

SpamLover (n1jpr@hotmail.com) writes:
I can imagine the day in which mass memory units
(the stuff we universally associate with hard disks today)
will be solid state.

This sort of thing has been said for twenty years.

Back then, it was RAM drives to replace floppy drives. It was expensive,
and didn't make much inroads.

Mostly a niche market for RAM drives which are many, many times faster
than a regular HD. Used a lot for online systems where large
databases have to be quickly available.

Then, the price of RAM became cheap enough, but the need for storage
space had increased, so it was still just as costly.

Relative to mechanical drives.

The price of RAM, and the price of hard drives keep dropping, but
everyone always wants more of both.

Because the Microsloth software keeps hogging both.

People don't want to stop and consolidate, they want more RAM and
they want that bigger drive, and they buy programs that require more
and more of each.

Hey, DOS still works. Would you believe that there are Millions of
computers out there that still using it. Must be a conspiracy between
software authors and the hardware industry. :-O

So there's no time to balance it, and say "we can replace that 1gig
hard drive with a memory-based drive", because by the time it becomes
feasible, everyone has moved on.

Must be all those MP3 files they are downloading. :-?

Michael

--
@@F@r@o@m@@O@r@a@n@g@e@@C@o@u@n@t@y@,@@C@a@l@,@@w@h@e@r@e@@
###Got a Question about ELECTRONICS? Check HERE First:###
http://users.pandora.be/educypedia/electronics/databank.htm
My email address is whitelisted. *All* email sent to it
goes directly to the trash unless you add NOSPAM in the
Subject: line with other stuff. alondra101 <at> hotmail.com
Don't be ripped off by the big book dealers. Go to the URL
that will give you a choice and save you money(up to half).
http://www.everybookstore.com You'll be glad you did!
Just when you thought you had all this figured out, the gov't
changed it: http://physics.nist.gov/cuu/Units/binary.html
@@t@h@e@@a@f@f@l@u@e@n@t@@m@e@e@t@@t@h@e@@E@f@f@l@u@e@n@t@@

 

[Watson A.Name - "Watt Sun]

In article <A8xqb.1220$%W3.6994@amstwist00>, Zak@spam.invalid
mentioned...

SpamLover wrote:

I've been told of flash card-to-IDE adaptors.
that can be stuck in a regular PC and let it boot from flash.

Flash wears out quicker than a drive if you do a lot of writes...

The algorithm used by the firmware rewrites to different spots in the
memory space so that the number of writes is evenly distributed. They
give specs that are just as good, if not better, than hard disks,
which wear out, too.

FWIW compactflash cards were designed to behave nearly the same as an
IDE harddrive.

With an adapter, they have the same interface.

Thomas

--
@@F@r@o@m@@O@r@a@n@g@e@@C@o@u@n@t@y@,@@C@a@l@,@@w@h@e@r@e@@
###Got a Question about ELECTRONICS? Check HERE First:###
http://users.pandora.be/educypedia/electronics/databank.htm
My email address is whitelisted. *All* email sent to it
goes directly to the trash unless you add NOSPAM in the
Subject: line with other stuff. alondra101 <at> hotmail.com
Don't be ripped off by the big book dealers. Go to the URL
that will give you a choice and save you money(up to half).
http://www.everybookstore.com You'll be glad you did!
Just when you thought you had all this figured out, the gov't
changed it: http://physics.nist.gov/cuu/Units/binary.html
@@t@h@e@@a@f@f@l@u@e@n@t@@m@e@e@t@@t@h@e@@E@f@f@l@u@e@n@t@@

 

[SpamLover]

This sort of thing has been said for twenty years.

How true.

Embarrassing as it it, I admit to having cut corners on one HD upgrade
some 12 years ago, as I had somehow become convinced price crossover
was 6 mo. away.

:-0

 

[SpamLover]

Flash wears out quicker than a drive if you do a lot of writes...

firmware rewrites to different spots [...] so that the number of writes
is evenly distributed. They give specs that are just as good

and flash is getting better

while magnetic chips seems close to hatch

OTOH mag suspension and better power electronics
improve survivability of HDs

and holographic is coming out of sci-fi

{iterate}


this will never end
plenty of opportunity for ever worse bloatware

.... and for those like me
who always ride in the wake,
and enjoy sedate OSs on weak machines


Filippo
Piii/866/384/20+20
K6ii/333/96/20
Pii/233/32/4.2
Libranet/Vector/Debian/Lycoris GNU-Linux,
W 98FE/98SE/ME, maybe QNX & NetBSD soon

 

[Gary Tait]

On 6 Nov 2003 00:57:07 -0800, n1jpr@hotmail.com (SpamLover) wrote:

When will static memory (flash, magnetic, whatever)
allow cheaper-than-hard-disk IDE mass memory devices
of, say, 10 - 20 - 80 GB capacity?

Never. With that, people will have a larger HDD "Home Server",
serving files and applications to diskless desktop workstations,
set-top boxes, and personal computing devices. Eventually, perhaps
even offsite servers to hold personal data and media, before SS drives
become cheaper than magnetic HDDs.

 

[DarkMatter]

On Fri, 07 Nov 2003 09:22:59 -0500, Gary Tait <classicsat@yahoo.moc>
Gave us:

On 6 Nov 2003 00:57:07 -0800, n1jpr@hotmail.com (SpamLover) wrote:

When will static memory (flash, magnetic, whatever)
allow cheaper-than-hard-disk IDE mass memory devices
of, say, 10 - 20 - 80 GB capacity?

Never. With that, people will have a larger HDD "Home Server",
serving files and applications to diskless desktop workstations,
set-top boxes, and personal computing devices. Eventually, perhaps
even offsite servers to hold personal data and media, before SS drives
become cheaper than magnetic HDDs.

People are not going to be running diskless workstations in the
home, hooking into mondo servers.

I have 4 machine running here, and they are all independent.

 

[Rich Grise]

Some people are already kind of doing that, albeit not so much at
home. (storing stuff on some central server). But in either case,
the majority of ordinary citizen users probably wouldn't see the
difference, or much care.

I just recently installed Earthlink Total Access, and it's actually
pretty cool - it's kind of like this app is distributed between
locally and the server. (BTW, if you decide to sign up for Earthlink,
tell them rgrise sent you ;-) )

Cheers!
Rich

DarkMatter wrote:

On Fri, 07 Nov 2003 09:22:59 -0500, Gary Tait <classicsat@yahoo.moc
Gave us:


On 6 Nov 2003 00:57:07 -0800, n1jpr@hotmail.com (SpamLover) wrote:


When will static memory (flash, magnetic, whatever)
allow cheaper-than-hard-disk IDE mass memory devices
of, say, 10 - 20 - 80 GB capacity?

Never. With that, people will have a larger HDD "Home Server",
serving files and applications to diskless desktop workstations,
set-top boxes, and personal computing devices. Eventually, perhaps
even offsite servers to hold personal data and media, before SS drives
become cheaper than magnetic HDDs.



People are not going to be running diskless workstations in the
home, hooking into mondo servers.

I have 4 machine running here, and they are all independent.

 

[DarkMatter]

On Sun, 09 Nov 2003 04:48:23 GMT, Rich Grise <spamdump@aol.com> Gave
us:

Some people are already kind of doing that, albeit not so much at
home. (storing stuff on some central server). But in either case,
the majority of ordinary citizen users probably wouldn't see the
difference, or much care.

I just recently installed Earthlink Total Access, and it's actually
pretty cool - it's kind of like this app is distributed between
locally and the server. (BTW, if you decide to sign up for Earthlink,
tell them rgrise sent you ;-) )

There are always going to be hard drives in home PCs.

There is always going to be data that the consumer wants to store,
and that locally and privately.

Learn how not to be a top posting Usenet retard.

 

[R. Steve Walz]

DarkMatter wrote:

On Sun, 09 Nov 2003 04:48:23 GMT, Rich Grise <spamdump@aol.com> Gave
us:

Some people are already kind of doing that, albeit not so much at
home. (storing stuff on some central server). But in either case,
the majority of ordinary citizen users probably wouldn't see the
difference, or much care.

I just recently installed Earthlink Total Access, and it's actually
pretty cool - it's kind of like this app is distributed between
locally and the server. (BTW, if you decide to sign up for Earthlink,
tell them rgrise sent you ;-) )


There are always going to be hard drives in home PCs.
------------

Nope, bullshit. Solid-state semi-permanent memory of several kinds
some using new principles, and fast static memory is rapidly overtaking
it in practicality.

There is always going to be data that the consumer wants to store,
and that locally and privately.
--------------

Of course, but that does NOT require harddrives, per se, you can
already do without one for turn-key, using CD-ROM.

Learn how not to be a top posting Usenet retard.
---------

Agreed.

-Steve
--
-Steve Walz rstevew@armory.com ftp://ftp.armory.com/pub/user/rstevew
Electronics Site!! 1000's of Files and Dirs!! With Schematics Galore!!
http://www.armory.com/~rstevew or http://www.armory.com/~rstevew/Public

 

[SpamLover]

PC World (UK) 12/03 has an interesting article on Flash Cards as IDE
disks.

Main points:

- a 4GB flash costs UKP1000 vs UKP200 for a 160GB HD,
so the unit cost of flash is 200x higher

- write-cycle wear IS an issue, so better avoid any OS
that writes a lot to HD due to virtual memory:
old DOS ok, specialist embedded OSs OK, Windows not good

- by and large Flash Cards can be used as HDs

The conclusion was: OK for retrocomputing (as an example they built an
arcade simulator and said a 486 would have been enough), and for
specialist prepackaged embedded use, but definitely not for
mainstream.