Second year \\\'flu season\\\'...

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[legg]

On Wed, 06 Apr 2022 11:50:35 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Flu Season? Fatality comparison to past events in the U.S.A.
Updated May 01 to include a second year trend or \'season\'.

http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_032c.jpg

 

[legg]

Looks like everyone\'s going to get it, eventually, vaccinated
or not - just reduced mortality amongst the vaccinated.

Past sero-immunity studies suggest that a 30% detection record
could indicate widespread (>80%) penetration in a population.

It appears that covid infection fatality rates below 3ppm/day are
to be considered as acceptible norms, post pandemic, for
re-establishing unrestricted activity within political borders.

- So, as of this date, these summaries will cease, with
fingers crossed.

As of May30:

US detections are at 252258ppm.(25.2%)
Detection rate is 307ppm/day and possibly leveling below 330ppm/day.
Fatalities are 3018ppm at 1.1ppm/day.
FR is 1.2% from a 250103ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 0.4%.
US test rate is 2200ppm/day.
14.0% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 177% at 1000ppm/day
- with 67% fully vaccinated.

Canada detections at 101945ppm (10.2%) ~ 381 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 69ppm/day and possibly leveling below 100ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1078ppm at 1.2ppm/day. ~ 511 days behind the US.
FR is 1.1% from a 101465ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 1.1%.
Canada test rate is 690ppm/day
10.0% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 224% at 1000ppm/day
- with 82% fully vaccinated.

Italy detections at 287800ppm. (28.8%)
Detection rate is 342ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2759ppm at 1.5ppm/day.
FR is 1.0% from a 285406ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 0.3%.
Italy test rate is 3250ppm/day.
10.5% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 228% at 400ppm/day.
- with 79% fully vaccinated.

Sweden detections at 246841ppm (24.7%)
Detection rate is 24ppm/day and leveling below 40ppm/day.
Fatalities are 1868ppm at 1.1ppm/day.
FR is 0.8% from a 246709ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 4.1%.
Sweden test rate is 260ppm/day.
9.2% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 220% at 1800ppm/day
- with 75% fully vaccinated.

UK detections at 327735ppm. (32.8%)
Detection rate is 91ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 2619ppm at 1.2ppm/day.
FR is 0.8% from a 327158ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 0.8%.
UK test rate is unreported (~3390ppm/day).
~2.7% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 209% at 500ppm/day.
- with ~73% fully vaccinated.

Brazil detections at 144609ppm. (14.5%)
Detection rate is 122ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 3114ppm at 0.5ppm/day
FR is 2.2% from a 143754ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 0.9% .
Brazil test rate is not reported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 206% at 2100ppm/day
- with 78% fully vaccinated.

Peru detections at 107302ppm. (10.7%)
Detection rate is 18ppm/day and leveling below 25ppm/day.
Fatalities are 6390ppm at 0.3ppm/day.
FR is 6.0% from a 107175ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 1.2% .
Peru test rate is unreported.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 225% at 2600ppm/day
- with 82% fully vaccinated.

Chile detections at 191782ppm (19.2%)
Detection rate is 354ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 3012ppm at 0.6ppm/day.
FR is 1.6% from a 187667ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 0.3% .
Chile test rate is 3010ppm/day.
11.8% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 292% at 6700ppm/day.
- with 91% fully vaccinated.

Argentina detections at 201864ppm (20.2%)
Detection rate is 136ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities are 2825ppm? at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.4% from a 200310ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 0.1% .
Argentina test rate is 390ppm/day.
34.9% of tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 225% at 3000ppm/day
- with 82% fully vaccinated.

Mexico detections at 44217ppm (4.4%)
Detection rate is 7ppm/day and leveling below 10ppm/day.
Fatalities are 2493ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 5.7% from a 44160ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 2.5% .
Mexico test rate is 40ppm/day.
No test positivity rate is practical.
Vaccinations at 159% at 1400ppm/day.
- with 61% fully vaccinated.

South Africa detections at 65824ppm (6.6%)
Detection rate is 61ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 1685ppm at 0.5ppm/day.
FR is 2.6% from a 65398ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 0.5%.
SA test rate is 700ppm/day.
8.7% of tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 60% at 700ppm/day
- with 31% fully vaccinated.(a rounding error?)

Czech detections at 365479ppm (36.5%)
Detection rate is 20ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities are 3756ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 1.0% from a 365336ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 0.5% .
Czech test rate is 480ppm/day.
4.2% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 164% at 200ppm/day
- with 64% fully vaccinated.

India detections at 30969ppm (3.1%)
Detection rate is 2ppm/day and leveling below 3ppm/day.
Fatalities at 376ppm at 0.0ppm/day.
FR is 1.2% from a 30957ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 1.1% .
India test rate 300ppm/day.
0.7% of current tests are positive.
Vaccinations at 138% at 1000ppm/day
- with 64% fully vaccinated.

Israel detections at 444915ppm (44.5%)
Detection rate is 201ppm/day and falling.
Fatalities at 1167ppm at 0.2ppm/day.
FR is 0.3% from a 443506ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Case FR short term is currently 0.1% .
Israel test rate is 2160ppm/day.
9.3% of current tests are positive
Vaccinations at 195% at <100ppm/day.
- with 66% fully vaccinated.

No fatality rate hotspots (>5ppm/day) are reported.

Pfizer is recommending a 4th vaccine dose to maintain reduced
mortality rates, based on their Israeli trials. There is no news
w/r to omicron-specific vaccine tests. Israeli vaccination rates
have stalled at 66% for half a year, suggesting that this may be
part of their testing protocol.

Although omicron is considered less fatal than earlier variants,
the US short-term fatality rate was double the long-term
average of record until late April \'22.

As detection levels rise above 15% of the total population ( >30%
in some cases), and assymptomatic infection levels at >3:1, it
may become safe to assume that very large levels of a population
have \'had\' covid19 and that present infections are caused by
variants that are not suppressed by current vaccination efforts.
Without an accompanying mortality, these new variants are
unconvincing candidates for further vaccination development.

Doses applied in Israel, Chile and other highly vaccinated countries
appear to be providing 3rd dose booster reinforcement, without
contributing to completed vaccinations.

Full vaccination levels are apparently stalled around 60% in the US
and other regions with signifigant reactionary movements.

The increased transmissibility of omicron variants have contributed
to the rise in detections, world-wide, after Nov 2021. So far, no
increase in mortality is associated with this variant.

Chile participated in Phase 3 trials for AstraZeneca,
Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac and CanSino. Chile has contracts
with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Sinovac.
Sinovac is their regular supplier of seasonal flu vaccine.
Sinovac\'s \'CoronaVac\' vaccine does not require sub-zero storage
temperatures. About 60% of Chile\'s contracted 80 million doses
are from Sinovac.

Chile maintains a Public Health service database that includes
regular vaccination scheduling. Using these resources alone
allowed vaccination rates as high as 1 million doses per week
to be delivered as early as mid-February. Approval of vaccine
use was based on published Phase 1 and Phase 2 reporting.


Reducing detections and fatalities in unvaccinated India/Nepal
seem to indicate reducing virulence for the delta variant.
Detection rates in S.Africa had also turned around until the
recent influences of the omicron variant. So far there is no
corresponding increase in fatalities.

RL

 

[legg]

On Wed, 06 Apr 2022 11:50:35 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Flu Season? Fatality comparison to past events in the U.S.A.
Updated Jun01 to include a third year trend or \'season\'.

http://ve3ute.ca/query/flu_season_034c.jpg

RL