Prominent scientists have bad news for the White House about

The specificity, complement of false positive, is what's killing them. I also can't believe how weak the sensitivity is either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

You can see how many tests there are here:

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

Antibody tests are "serology." Tons of Chinese manufacturers jumping on this bandwagon.

 

[Flyguy]

On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 8:38:04 AM UTC-7, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

The specificity, complement of false positive, is what's killing them. I also can't believe how weak the sensitivity is either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

You can see how many tests there are here:

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

Antibody tests are "serology." Tons of Chinese manufacturers jumping on this bandwagon.

The far-left media is solely focused on testing quantities and completely ignoring testing accuracy. This article provides as much insight into the issue as I have seen:
https://www.propublica.org/article/coronavirus-tests-are-being-fast-tracked-by-the-fda-but-its-unclear-how-accurate-they-are
An inaccurate test is worse than no test at all. Hey Slow Man, that is not my opinion, but the opinion of the head of the FDA (you DO know what the FDA is, don't you Slow Man?). If you get a false negative you think you are OK and start infecting other unsuspecting people. Better that you don't know and isolate yourself.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, April 16, 2020 at 2:00:59 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Wed, 15 Apr 2020 08:37:56 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

The specificity, complement of false positive, is what's killing them. I also can't believe how weak the sensitivity is either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

You can see how many tests there are here:

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

Antibody tests are "serology." Tons of Chinese manufacturers jumping on this bandwagon.

How do you get to be a Top Scientist? Is there a game show for that?

Fred Bloggs does seem to be auditioning.

He should have taken a leaf from Trump's book and got a ghost-writer to knock up his material.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Wed, 15 Apr 2020 08:37:56 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

The specificity, complement of false positive, is what's killing them. I also can't believe how weak the sensitivity is either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

You can see how many tests there are here:

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

Antibody tests are "serology." Tons of Chinese manufacturers jumping on this bandwagon.

How do you get to be a Top Scientist? Is there a game show for that?



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

Ricky C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote in
news:915ff669-d242-47c2-9c84-e56cdd33b842@googlegroups.com:

On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 12:00:59 PM UTC-4,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 15 Apr 2020 08:37:56 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

The specificity, complement of false positive, is what's killing
them. I also can't believe how weak the sensitivity is either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-
scientists/index.html

You can see how many tests there are here:

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

Antibody tests are "serology." Tons of Chinese manufacturers
jumping on this bandwagon.

How do you get to be a Top Scientist? Is there a game show for
that?

I believe it was called, "The Apprentice".

Perhaps the biggest mistake ever made in the entire history of this
nation, was when NBC became the final enabling trigger for an already
sociopathic narcissist by creating that also totally retarded
"Reality TV Show". The idiot actually thinks he is intelligent and
that he is in complete charge of everything.

Donald John Trump as President of The United States of America was
the absolute worst move ever made.

The only benefit is that it exposed the depth of corruption in the
republican party. All to back a criminal on his trek for another
term of office utilizing criminal means. AND it cost lives.

This stupid motherfucker was killing people even before he got
started on us Americans.

AND this stupid motherfucker removed the regulations on the
manufacture and use of Asbestos products.

SOMEBODY PLEASE... Get this man (at the wrong end of) a gun!
-Bowery King "John Wick: Chapter Two"

 

[Ricky C]

On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 12:00:59 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Wed, 15 Apr 2020 08:37:56 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

The specificity, complement of false positive, is what's killing them. I also can't believe how weak the sensitivity is either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

You can see how many tests there are here:

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

Antibody tests are "serology." Tons of Chinese manufacturers jumping on this bandwagon.

How do you get to be a Top Scientist? Is there a game show for that?

I believe it was called, "The Apprentice".

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, April 16, 2020 at 2:15:42 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:

On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 8:38:04 AM UTC-7, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
The specificity, complement of false positive, is what's killing them. I also can't believe how weak the sensitivity is either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

You can see how many tests there are here:

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

Antibody tests are "serology." Tons of Chinese manufacturers jumping on this bandwagon.

The far-left media is solely focused on testing quantities and completely ignoring testing accuracy.

What makes you think that?

This article provides as much insight into the issue as I have seen:
https://www.propublica.org/article/coronavirus-tests-are-being-fast-tracked-by-the-fda-but-its-unclear-how-accurate-they-are
An inaccurate test is worse than no test at all.

Not if you know - even roughly - how inaccurate it is

> Hey Sloman, that is not my opinion, but the opinion of the head of the FDA.

It's your opinion about what the opinion of head of the FDA happens to be.

You happen to be a person of rather limited cognitive ability, and you frequently misunderstand what you read.

> If you get a false negative you think you are OK and start infecting other unsuspecting people. Better that you don't know and isolate yourself.

Perhaps. But if you are asymptomatic, you wouldn't isolate yourself.

A test that has 5% false negatives would prevent 19 out of 20 of such infections.

We've just had a nurse in an aged care home who managed to infect six other staff and nine patients before she got tested. She really didn't know that she was infectious, and a test that would have sent her home 95% of the time would have helped.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Martin Brown]

On 15/04/2020 17:00, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Wed, 15 Apr 2020 08:37:56 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

The specificity, complement of false positive, is what's killing them. I also can't believe how weak the sensitivity is either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

You can see how many tests there are here:

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

Antibody tests are "serology." Tons of Chinese manufacturers jumping on this bandwagon.

How do you get to be a Top Scientist? Is there a game show for that?

No. Game shows are only used to choose the US President.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[John Larkin]

On Wed, 15 Apr 2020 12:12:10 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 2:49:50 PM UTC-4, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 12:00:59 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 15 Apr 2020 08:37:56 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

The specificity, complement of false positive, is what's killing them. I also can't believe how weak the sensitivity is either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

You can see how many tests there are here:

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

Antibody tests are "serology." Tons of Chinese manufacturers jumping on this bandwagon.

How do you get to be a Top Scientist? Is there a game show for that?

LOL- the top scientists are the ones who advance the press's political agenda, anyone else is a fraud and a quack.


Top Scientists are identified by how well they spin?

Grins,
James Arthur

Do you remember Gyro Gearloose?

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 2:49:50 PM UTC-4, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 12:00:59 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 15 Apr 2020 08:37:56 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

The specificity, complement of false positive, is what's killing them. I also can't believe how weak the sensitivity is either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

You can see how many tests there are here:

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

Antibody tests are "serology." Tons of Chinese manufacturers jumping on this bandwagon.

How do you get to be a Top Scientist? Is there a game show for that?

LOL- the top scientists are the ones who advance the press's political agenda, anyone else is a fraud and a quack.

Top Scientists are identified by how well they spin?

Grins,
James Arthur

 

On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 12:00:59 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Wed, 15 Apr 2020 08:37:56 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

The specificity, complement of false positive, is what's killing them. I also can't believe how weak the sensitivity is either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

You can see how many tests there are here:

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

Antibody tests are "serology." Tons of Chinese manufacturers jumping on this bandwagon.

How do you get to be a Top Scientist? Is there a game show for that?

LOL- the top scientists are the ones who advance the press's political agenda, anyone else is a fraud and a quack.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

[Ricky C]

On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 2:49:50 PM UTC-4, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 12:00:59 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 15 Apr 2020 08:37:56 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

The specificity, complement of false positive, is what's killing them. I also can't believe how weak the sensitivity is either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

You can see how many tests there are here:

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

Antibody tests are "serology." Tons of Chinese manufacturers jumping on this bandwagon.

How do you get to be a Top Scientist? Is there a game show for that?

LOL- the top scientists are the ones who advance the press's political agenda, anyone else is a fraud and a quack.

I thought the top scientists were the ones selected by Trump to guide the nation through this health crisis? Oh, no, that is the trade adviser!

--

Rick C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-04-15 15:39, John Larkin wrote:

On Wed, 15 Apr 2020 12:12:10 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 2:49:50 PM UTC-4, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 12:00:59 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 15 Apr 2020 08:37:56 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

The specificity, complement of false positive, is what's killing them. I also can't believe how weak the sensitivity is either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

You can see how many tests there are here:

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

Antibody tests are "serology." Tons of Chinese manufacturers jumping on this bandwagon.

How do you get to be a Top Scientist? Is there a game show for that?

LOL- the top scientists are the ones who advance the press's political agenda, anyone else is a fraud and a quack.


Top Scientists are identified by how well they spin?

Grins,
James Arthur

Do you remember Gyro Gearloose?

A fave among second-rank comics. On TV I used to like Stuffy Durma.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 1:14:33 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Thursday, April 16, 2020 at 2:15:42 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 8:38:04 AM UTC-7, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
The specificity, complement of false positive, is what's killing them.. I also can't believe how weak the sensitivity is either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

You can see how many tests there are here:

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

Antibody tests are "serology." Tons of Chinese manufacturers jumping on this bandwagon.

The far-left media is solely focused on testing quantities and completely ignoring testing accuracy.

What makes you think that?

This article provides as much insight into the issue as I have seen:
https://www.propublica.org/article/coronavirus-tests-are-being-fast-tracked-by-the-fda-but-its-unclear-how-accurate-they-are
An inaccurate test is worse than no test at all.

Not if you know - even roughly - how inaccurate it is

Hey Sloman, that is not my opinion, but the opinion of the head of the FDA.

It's your opinion about what the opinion of head of the FDA happens to be..

You happen to be a person of rather limited cognitive ability, and you frequently misunderstand what you read.

If you get a false negative you think you are OK and start infecting other unsuspecting people. Better that you don't know and isolate yourself.

Perhaps. But if you are asymptomatic, you wouldn't isolate yourself.

A test that has 5% false negatives would prevent 19 out of 20 of such infections.

We've just had a nurse in an aged care home who managed to infect six other staff and nine patients before she got tested. She really didn't know that she was infectious, and a test that would have sent her home 95% of the time would have helped.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

That article is talking about the PCR, and in particular the one supervised by the CDC. The antibody tests are much, much, worse. They sort of hint that the essence of the problem are the hopelessly low skilled and apathetic unemployables collecting the samples packaging them and transporting them to the central laboratory facility. The FDA certification testing doesn't take that into account. Everything in the U.S. is just an approximation to a relatively low standard of performance.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, April 16, 2020 at 5:12:16 AM UTC+10, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 2:49:50 PM UTC-4, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 12:00:59 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 15 Apr 2020 08:37:56 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

The specificity, complement of false positive, is what's killing them. I also can't believe how weak the sensitivity is either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

You can see how many tests there are here:

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

Antibody tests are "serology." Tons of Chinese manufacturers jumping on this bandwagon.

How do you get to be a Top Scientist? Is there a game show for that?

LOL- the top scientists are the ones who advance the press's political agenda, anyone else is a fraud and a quack.

Top Scientists are identified by how well they spin?

That would make James Arthur a top scientist. Credible spinning is more difficult, but he doesn't know anything about that.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, April 16, 2020 at 5:39:24 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:

On Wed, 15 Apr 2020 12:12:10 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 2:49:50 PM UTC-4, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 12:00:59 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Wed, 15 Apr 2020 08:37:56 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

The specificity, complement of false positive, is what's killing them. I also can't believe how weak the sensitivity is either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

You can see how many tests there are here:

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

Antibody tests are "serology." Tons of Chinese manufacturers jumping on this bandwagon.

How do you get to be a Top Scientist? Is there a game show for that?

LOL- the top scientists are the ones who advance the press's political agenda, anyone else is a fraud and a quack.


Top Scientists are identified by how well they spin?

Grins,
James Arthur

Do you remember Gyro Gearloose?

A Disney steal from Heath Robinson and Rube Goldberg.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rowland_Emett

mined the same seam rather better. We've got one of his prints. We lived in Ditchling in Sussex for a bit after he'd moved there, and came across the print in a local gallery.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Flyguy]

On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 10:14:33 AM UTC-7, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Thursday, April 16, 2020 at 2:15:42 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 8:38:04 AM UTC-7, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
The specificity, complement of false positive, is what's killing them. I also can't believe how weak the sensitivity is either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

You can see how many tests there are here:

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

Antibody tests are "serology." Tons of Chinese manufacturers jumping on this bandwagon.

The far-left media is solely focused on testing quantities and completely ignoring testing accuracy.

What makes you think that?

This article provides as much insight into the issue as I have seen:
https://www.propublica.org/article/coronavirus-tests-are-being-fast-tracked-by-the-fda-but-its-unclear-how-accurate-they-are
An inaccurate test is worse than no test at all.

Not if you know - even roughly - how inaccurate it is

Hey Sloman, that is not my opinion, but the opinion of the head of the FDA.

It's your opinion about what the opinion of head of the FDA happens to be.

You happen to be a person of rather limited cognitive ability, and you frequently misunderstand what you read.

If you get a false negative you think you are OK and start infecting other unsuspecting people. Better that you don't know and isolate yourself.

Perhaps. But if you are asymptomatic, you wouldn't isolate yourself.

A test that has 5% false negatives would prevent 19 out of 20 of such infections.

We've just had a nurse in an aged care home who managed to infect six other staff and nine patients before she got tested. She really didn't know that she was infectious, and a test that would have sent her home 95% of the time would have helped.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

SLOW MAN is SLOWER than normal: SLOW MAN should know that false negatives are WORSE than no diagnosis whatsoever, but SLOW MAN is too "STUPD" to understand that!

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, April 16, 2020 at 3:18:14 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:

On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 10:14:33 AM UTC-7, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, April 16, 2020 at 2:15:42 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 8:38:04 AM UTC-7, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
The specificity, complement of false positive, is what's killing them. I also can't believe how weak the sensitivity is either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

You can see how many tests there are here:

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

Antibody tests are "serology." Tons of Chinese manufacturers jumping on this bandwagon.

The far-left media is solely focused on testing quantities and completely ignoring testing accuracy.

What makes you think that?

This article provides as much insight into the issue as I have seen:
https://www.propublica.org/article/coronavirus-tests-are-being-fast-tracked-by-the-fda-but-its-unclear-how-accurate-they-are
An inaccurate test is worse than no test at all.

Not if you know - even roughly - how inaccurate it is

Hey Sloman, that is not my opinion, but the opinion of the head of the FDA.

It's your opinion about what the opinion of head of the FDA happens to be.

You happen to be a person of rather limited cognitive ability, and you frequently misunderstand what you read.

If you get a false negative you think you are OK and start infecting other unsuspecting people. Better that you don't know and isolate yourself.

Perhaps. But if you are asymptomatic, you wouldn't isolate yourself.

A test that has 5% false negatives would prevent 19 out of 20 of such infections.

We've just had a nurse in an aged care home who managed to infect six other staff and nine patients before she got tested. She really didn't know that she was infectious, and a test that would have sent her home 95% of the time would have helped.

Fly guy thinks that everybody should know that false negatives are WORSE than no diagnosis whatsoever, but is too "STUPID" to understand that he's wrong.

This isn't exactly what Flyguy posted, but it conveys as much of his message as is worth preserving.

The trouble with Flyguy's conclusion is that a false negative is the price you pay for getting quite a few more true positives.

It's worth the occasional false negative to get those true positives.

Realising that requires that you understand the idea of cost-benefit analysis, and that's way out of Flyguy's grasp. It was explicitly stated in what I've posted above, but Flyguy doesn't bother thinking about things like that, or anything much at all.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Mikko OH2HVJ]

bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com writes:

The specificity, complement of false positive, is what's killing them. I also can't believe how weak the sensitivity is either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

Yep. As an example, condider a situation with 96/94
specificity/sensitivity, population tested of 1e6 with 5% having
antibodies (which does not necessarily mean immunity or not contagious)

Roughly:
47000 get true positive result
3000 get false negative
955200 get true negative
39800 get false positive

So, 46% of positive results are false!

And those people may think they're safe for themselves and others, go
catch the virus and spread it during the asymptomatic phase.

--
mikko

 

On Thursday, April 16, 2020 at 2:24:52 AM UTC-4, Mikko OH2HVJ wrote:

bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com writes:

The specificity, complement of false positive, is what's killing them. I also can't believe how weak the sensitivity is either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

Yep. As an example, condider a situation with 96/94
specificity/sensitivity, population tested of 1e6 with 5% having
antibodies (which does not necessarily mean immunity or not contagious)

Roughly:
47000 get true positive result
3000 get false negative
955200 get true negative
39800 get false positive

So, 46% of positive results are false!

And those people may think they're safe for themselves and others, go
catch the virus and spread it during the asymptomatic phase.

--
mikko

That's exactly right. The false positives are much more dangerous. Why? There are LOTS of them, something on the order of 100x the number with exposure from infection, and they are susceptibles. Susceptibles are the ones who catch, propagate, and perpetuate the disease. If they start lifting lockdown on the basis of a crummy antibody test with bad specificity performance, they're looking at a BIG rebound. They have learned from the 1918 flu that the reason it disappeared so quickly is the virus ran out of significant numbers of susceptibles to infect.