PCR cycle count...

[server]

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/first-time-us-state-will-require-disclosure-pcr-test-cycle-data

(and other sources)

2^N is a powerful function for large N. It will be embarrassing if
only 10% of the positive tests demonstrate active infections or
infectiousness.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The best designs are necessarily accidental.

 

[Don Y]

On 12/7/2020 9:22 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sun, 6 Dec 2020 21:40:43 -0700, Don Y <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid
wrote:

On 12/6/2020 12:38 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 6 Dec 2020 10:59:08 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

On Sunday, December 6, 2020 at 11:29:20 AM UTC-5, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/first-time-us-state-will-require-disclosure-pcr-test-cycle-data

(and other sources)

2^N is a powerful function for large N. It will be embarrassing if
only 10% of the positive tests demonstrate active infections or
infectiousness.

There is no data with which to correlate Ct with active disease or infectiousness. That\'s why they call it exposure. The PFA of a PCR is 0.00000...
https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2020/11/pcr-test-result

What nonsense. Erring on the side of caution indeed! Why not be really
cautious (and save test costs) and call every test positive? Isolate
everyone forever!

Or, isolate EVERYONE for a month and let the virus run out of
opportunities to propagate itself.

To get down to zero viruses? That would require isolating every person
on the planet individually. Mothers from their kids, men from wives,
nurses from patients, everyone. No food deliveries allowed. Just hope
that the water and electricity somehow stay on, with nobody to run the
plants.

Wow! You must not be very smart if you can\'t figure out a way to
let families (living units) stay together, get food delivered
without relying on minimum wage \"supermarket kids\" and keep the
power plants manned by folks with some degree of competency and
adequate PPE.

Miss a single infection, and it all starts again. Better make it six
months to be sure.

No, you follow up with comprehensive TESTING to identify outbreaks
as they occur -- instead of waiting for them to mushroom.

A region (neighborhood, city, state, country (!) having an unacceptably
high infection rate is simply barred from accessing \"cleaner\" areas
that don\'t have that problem.

Instead, we\'ll f*ck around for 11 months with no end in sight and
HOPE a vaccine works. And, provides coverage long enough to
tamp down the outbreak before it repeats!

I have heard of some testing companies using N=45.

Something must explain why deaths-per-case have dropped so radically
in the second spikes, roughly a 17:1 ratio drop in Belguim. Mutation?
Culling? Better treatment? Or just testing changes?

Always compare today\'s death total to the number of confirmed cases
a few weeks ago. Else you\'re comparing two different event streams
at different -- uncorrelated -- points in time. As cases skyrocket,
the APPARENT fatality rate will fall... until cases level off and
those infected folks are given a chance to die!

It\'s easy to compare peaks and totals integrated around peaks. This
thing is characteristically peaky. Nobody has explained why.

 

[server]

On Mon, 7 Dec 2020 09:40:57 -0700, Don Y <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid>
wrote:

On 12/7/2020 9:22 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 6 Dec 2020 21:40:43 -0700, Don Y <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid
wrote:

On 12/6/2020 12:38 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 6 Dec 2020 10:59:08 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

On Sunday, December 6, 2020 at 11:29:20 AM UTC-5, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/first-time-us-state-will-require-disclosure-pcr-test-cycle-data

(and other sources)

2^N is a powerful function for large N. It will be embarrassing if
only 10% of the positive tests demonstrate active infections or
infectiousness.

There is no data with which to correlate Ct with active disease or infectiousness. That\'s why they call it exposure. The PFA of a PCR is 0.00000...
https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2020/11/pcr-test-result

What nonsense. Erring on the side of caution indeed! Why not be really
cautious (and save test costs) and call every test positive? Isolate
everyone forever!

Or, isolate EVERYONE for a month and let the virus run out of
opportunities to propagate itself.

To get down to zero viruses? That would require isolating every person
on the planet individually. Mothers from their kids, men from wives,
nurses from patients, everyone. No food deliveries allowed. Just hope
that the water and electricity somehow stay on, with nobody to run the
plants.

Wow! You must not be very smart if you can\'t figure out a way to
let families (living units) stay together, get food delivered
without relying on minimum wage \"supermarket kids\" and keep the
power plants manned by folks with some degree of competency and
adequate PPE.

Any group can pass the virus around internally and keep it alive. It
only takes one seed to start it all up again.

You\'re obviously smarter than I am, so tell us exactly how to ensure
zero viruses in the entire world after a month of isolation.

Miss a single infection, and it all starts again. Better make it six
months to be sure.

No, you follow up with comprehensive TESTING to identify outbreaks
as they occur -- instead of waiting for them to mushroom.

OK, test everyone on the planet once a week and forbid all travel.
Better yet test everyone every day to account for false negatives. We
need ZERO viruses on the whole planet, or we re-seed it again.

A region (neighborhood, city, state, country (!) having an unacceptably
high infection rate is simply barred from accessing \"cleaner\" areas
that don\'t have that problem.

OK, build walls around every region in the world, with barbed wire and
machine-gun towers. How will you define the regions? One million
people per region? One person per region?



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The best designs are necessarily accidental.

 

[whit3rd]

On Monday, December 7, 2020 at 9:37:19 AM UTC-8, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 7 Dec 2020 09:40:57 -0700, Don Y <blocked...@foo.invalid
wrote:

A region (neighborhood, city, state, country (!) having an unacceptably
high infection rate is simply barred from accessing \"cleaner\" areas
that don\'t have that problem.

OK, build walls around every region in the world, with barbed wire and
machine-gun towers.

Dont be silly; enact testing, isolation and scrub-down protocols at different levels
as we actually DO.
Machine-guns make for exciting drama, not hygiene.
You\'d get along fine with the flagellants of the old plagues...

 

[ke...@kjwdesigns.com]

....

Any group can pass the virus around internally and keep it alive. It
only takes one seed to start it all up again.

After a few time constants, there is effectively no virus remaining. The remaining cases are dealt with by testing and isolation.

You\'re obviously smarter than I am, so tell us exactly how to ensure
zero viruses in the entire world after a month of isolation.

Miss a single infection, and it all starts again. Better make it six
months to be sure.

No, you follow up with comprehensive TESTING to identify outbreaks
as they occur -- instead of waiting for them to mushroom.
OK, test everyone on the planet once a week and forbid all travel.
Better yet test everyone every day to account for false negatives. We
need ZERO viruses on the whole planet, or we re-seed it again.

A region (neighborhood, city, state, country (!) having an unacceptably
high infection rate is simply barred from accessing \"cleaner\" areas
that don\'t have that problem.
OK, build walls around every region in the world, with barbed wire and
machine-gun towers. How will you define the regions? One million
people per region? One person per region?

....
Don\'t be silly.

New Zealand seems to be doing well with zero community cases and the ones that come into the country are dealt with sensibly. If only other countries could do as well. New Zealand has a population of about 5 million.

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/1-new-case-covid-19-managed-isolation-5

 

[Don Y]

On 12/7/2020 10:37 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 7 Dec 2020 09:40:57 -0700, Don Y <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid
wrote:

On 12/7/2020 9:22 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 6 Dec 2020 21:40:43 -0700, Don Y <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid
wrote:

On 12/6/2020 12:38 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 6 Dec 2020 10:59:08 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

On Sunday, December 6, 2020 at 11:29:20 AM UTC-5, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/first-time-us-state-will-require-disclosure-pcr-test-cycle-data

(and other sources)

2^N is a powerful function for large N. It will be embarrassing if
only 10% of the positive tests demonstrate active infections or
infectiousness.

There is no data with which to correlate Ct with active disease or infectiousness. That\'s why they call it exposure. The PFA of a PCR is 0.00000...
https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2020/11/pcr-test-result

What nonsense. Erring on the side of caution indeed! Why not be really
cautious (and save test costs) and call every test positive? Isolate
everyone forever!

Or, isolate EVERYONE for a month and let the virus run out of
opportunities to propagate itself.

To get down to zero viruses? That would require isolating every person
on the planet individually. Mothers from their kids, men from wives,
nurses from patients, everyone. No food deliveries allowed. Just hope
that the water and electricity somehow stay on, with nobody to run the
plants.

Wow! You must not be very smart if you can\'t figure out a way to
let families (living units) stay together, get food delivered
without relying on minimum wage \"supermarket kids\" and keep the
power plants manned by folks with some degree of competency and
adequate PPE.

Any group can pass the virus around internally and keep it alive. It
only takes one seed to start it all up again.

And if that group is \"contained\", eventually all (or none) are infected
and recover/die. The point is not to allow one group to pass it on
to others.

You\'re obviously smarter than I am, so tell us exactly how to ensure
zero viruses in the entire world after a month of isolation.

Why should *I* care about The World? Ban travel from places that
don\'t have it under control. Just like isolating one household from
another.

Miss a single infection, and it all starts again. Better make it six
months to be sure.

No, you follow up with comprehensive TESTING to identify outbreaks
as they occur -- instead of waiting for them to mushroom.

OK, test everyone on the planet once a week and forbid all travel.

Again, why is it MY (or \"our\") job to worry about the entire planet?
We\'ve already killed travel for a prolonged time (and not yet determined
future). You may feel inconvenienced that you can\'t just up and
go to <wherever>. Maybe you CAN -- you just can\'t COME BACK! (so,
pick someplace that you wouldn\'t mind spending an indeterminate
amount of time at!)

Better yet test everyone every day to account for false negatives. We
need ZERO viruses on the whole planet, or we re-seed it again.

Again with the whole planet nonsense. You want to come into
our \"clean\" country? We put you in an isolation ward (no, we
don\'t rely on you to self-quarantine) for N days -- and bill you
for the cost of that confinement. Consider it part of the
cost of traveling INTO the country.

Or, just stay out until YOUR country has it\'s shit together.

Heck, we can ban Muslims just because they worship the wrong god...

A region (neighborhood, city, state, country (!) having an unacceptably
high infection rate is simply barred from accessing \"cleaner\" areas
that don\'t have that problem.

OK, build walls around every region in the world, with barbed wire and
machine-gun towers. How will you define the regions? One million
people per region? One person per region?

You\'re just being silly. If you were CHARGED with the responsibility for
doing this, would you just say, \"Gee, I have such a limited imagination that
I can\'t POSSIBLY come up with a solution! You should see how boring and banal
my electronic designs are...\"

 

[Don Y]

On 12/7/2020 12:26 PM, ke...@kjwdesigns.com wrote:

A region (neighborhood, city, state, country (!) having an unacceptably
high infection rate is simply barred from accessing \"cleaner\" areas that
don\'t have that problem.
OK, build walls around every region in the world, with barbed wire and
machine-gun towers. How will you define the regions? One million people
per region? One person per region?
... Don\'t be silly.

New Zealand seems to be doing well with zero community cases and the ones
that come into the country are dealt with sensibly. If only other countries
could do as well. New Zealand has a population of about 5 million.

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/1-new-case-covid-19-managed-isolation-5

Ditto Taiwan at 23M souls with 716 cases and 7 (that\'s SEVEN -- 1% CFR!)
deaths as of 12/7/2020.

Let\'s see, California has ~39M souls... let\'s pretend 39M = 2*23M (to make
the math easier). 1.3M cases (that\'s a factor of 1800 more than Taiwan)
and ~20K fatalities (a factor of 2800 worse -- 1400 adjusting for population).

And, that\'s despite the US having _The World\'s Best health Care System_
(TmReg) <cough>!

Their economy took a SMALLER hit than the US and may actually report GROWTH
this year!

I guess the Taiwanese are just considerably smarter than John Larkin in having
come up with ways to control the virus in their country.

 

[whit3rd]

On Monday, December 7, 2020 at 5:06:31 PM UTC-8, Ed Lee wrote:

> Just like the flu, we are going to need to vaccinate every year. The first time takes a long time to test and verify (only 48 hours to design), but the next time won\'t take too long. Much of the NRE is also for the stable carrying agent. It will be cheap and common as any other vaccines in the future.

That\'s unknown. We don\'t have enough long-term data to know, and there\'s multiple vaccines,
so we\'ll have to see what the longevity is, for each.

In this regard, like others, it\'s not \'just like the flu\'.

 

[whit3rd]

On Sunday, December 6, 2020 at 3:22:58 PM UTC-8, John Larkin wrote:

> Or maybe everybody has been wrong all along.

Including John Larkin, as he posted the above?

 

[server]

On Mon, 7 Dec 2020 11:26:21 -0800 (PST), \"ke...@kjwdesigns.com\"
<keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote:

...
Any group can pass the virus around internally and keep it alive. It
only takes one seed to start it all up again.


After a few time constants, there is effectively no virus remaining. The remaining cases are dealt with by testing and isolation.

A group of 6 people could pass it around among themselves for 60 days.
Of course that\'s improbable, but it only has to happen one place in
the world to keep the virus alive. A village of 100 could pass it
around asymptomatically for years. You\'re not going to
saturation-level test every village on the planet every day, or wall
every one of them off with barbed wire. Somebody is going to sneak out
and visit someone over that hill or across that river.

The whole thing probably started with a single human case in Wuhan.
One is all it takes. Isolation and masks and social distancing can\'t
kill this one off.

Interestingly, the huge second spikes in europe are mostly over. They
were very short and not nearly as deadly as the first one.





--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The best designs are necessarily accidental.

 

[Jasen Betts]

On 2020-12-07, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:

On Sun, 6 Dec 2020 21:40:43 -0700, Don Y <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid
wrote:

On 12/6/2020 12:38 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 6 Dec 2020 10:59:08 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

On Sunday, December 6, 2020 at 11:29:20 AM UTC-5, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/first-time-us-state-will-require-disclosure-pcr-test-cycle-data

(and other sources)

2^N is a powerful function for large N. It will be embarrassing if
only 10% of the positive tests demonstrate active infections or
infectiousness.

There is no data with which to correlate Ct with active disease or infectiousness. That\'s why they call it exposure. The PFA of a PCR is 0.00000...
https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2020/11/pcr-test-result

What nonsense. Erring on the side of caution indeed! Why not be really
cautious (and save test costs) and call every test positive? Isolate
everyone forever!

Or, isolate EVERYONE for a month and let the virus run out of
opportunities to propagate itself.

To get down to zero viruses? That would require isolating every person
on the planet individually. Mothers from their kids, men from wives,
nurses from patients, everyone. No food deliveries allowed. Just hope
that the water and electricity somehow stay on, with nobody to run the
plants.

What a heap of flasehoods you should stick to things you know about.
[rest of garbage snipped and ignored]



--
Jasen.

 

[server]

On Tue, 8 Dec 2020 04:45:07 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
<usenet@revmaps.no-ip.org> wrote:

On 2020-12-07, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Sun, 6 Dec 2020 21:40:43 -0700, Don Y <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid
wrote:

On 12/6/2020 12:38 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 6 Dec 2020 10:59:08 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

On Sunday, December 6, 2020 at 11:29:20 AM UTC-5, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/first-time-us-state-will-require-disclosure-pcr-test-cycle-data

(and other sources)

2^N is a powerful function for large N. It will be embarrassing if
only 10% of the positive tests demonstrate active infections or
infectiousness.

There is no data with which to correlate Ct with active disease or infectiousness. That\'s why they call it exposure. The PFA of a PCR is 0.00000...
https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2020/11/pcr-test-result

What nonsense. Erring on the side of caution indeed! Why not be really
cautious (and save test costs) and call every test positive? Isolate
everyone forever!

Or, isolate EVERYONE for a month and let the virus run out of
opportunities to propagate itself.

To get down to zero viruses? That would require isolating every person
on the planet individually. Mothers from their kids, men from wives,
nurses from patients, everyone. No food deliveries allowed. Just hope
that the water and electricity somehow stay on, with nobody to run the
plants.

What a heap of flasehoods you should stick to things you know about.
[rest of garbage snipped and ignored]

Please clarify what \"isolate EVERYONE\" means, if it doesn\'t literally
mean everyone.

Numbers, please.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The best designs are necessarily accidental.

 

[server]

On Tue, 8 Dec 2020 04:45:07 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
<usenet@revmaps.no-ip.org> wrote:

On 2020-12-07, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote:
On Sun, 6 Dec 2020 21:40:43 -0700, Don Y <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid
wrote:

On 12/6/2020 12:38 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 6 Dec 2020 10:59:08 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

On Sunday, December 6, 2020 at 11:29:20 AM UTC-5, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/first-time-us-state-will-require-disclosure-pcr-test-cycle-data

(and other sources)

2^N is a powerful function for large N. It will be embarrassing if
only 10% of the positive tests demonstrate active infections or
infectiousness.

There is no data with which to correlate Ct with active disease or infectiousness. That\'s why they call it exposure. The PFA of a PCR is 0.00000...
https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2020/11/pcr-test-result

What nonsense. Erring on the side of caution indeed! Why not be really
cautious (and save test costs) and call every test positive? Isolate
everyone forever!

Or, isolate EVERYONE for a month and let the virus run out of
opportunities to propagate itself.

To get down to zero viruses? That would require isolating every person
on the planet individually. Mothers from their kids, men from wives,
nurses from patients, everyone. No food deliveries allowed. Just hope
that the water and electricity somehow stay on, with nobody to run the
plants.

What a heap of flasehoods you should stick to things you know about.
[rest of garbage snipped and ignored]

Please clarify what \"isolate EVERYONE\" means, if it doesn\'t literally
mean everyone.

Numbers, please.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The best designs are necessarily accidental.

 

[Martin Brown]

On 08/12/2020 04:35, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Interestingly, the huge second spikes in europe are mostly over. They
were very short and not nearly as deadly as the first one.

That is because this time they locked down a bit faster and didn\'t throw
Covid infected bodies into care homes like they did in the first wave.

Keeping it out of care homes is the main reason why the UK death toll is
so much lower this time. The very rapid spread through the university
student population on some campuses also created a large number of cases
in teenagers and twenty somethings with a very low case fatality rate.

UK has just begun vaccinating the elderly with the Pfizer vaccine today.
Starting from the most elderly 80+ and working down the age range.

USA is very curious infection rate curve. Unique amongst the northern
hemisphere in that there was a peak in mid summer unlike anywhere else.

South Africa (in their winter) has a similar July infection bump.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&country=GBR~USA~ZAF&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

In the USA I expect it was caused by July 4th celebrations. Much like
the present steep rise was powered by Thanksgiving travel. I expect the
same rise to happen in both the UK and USA due to Xmas and New Year.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[Martin Brown]

On 08/12/2020 04:35, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Interestingly, the huge second spikes in europe are mostly over. They
were very short and not nearly as deadly as the first one.

That is because this time they locked down a bit faster and didn\'t throw
Covid infected bodies into care homes like they did in the first wave.

Keeping it out of care homes is the main reason why the UK death toll is
so much lower this time. The very rapid spread through the university
student population on some campuses also created a large number of cases
in teenagers and twenty somethings with a very low case fatality rate.

UK has just begun vaccinating the elderly with the Pfizer vaccine today.
Starting from the most elderly 80+ and working down the age range.

USA is very curious infection rate curve. Unique amongst the northern
hemisphere in that there was a peak in mid summer unlike anywhere else.

South Africa (in their winter) has a similar July infection bump.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&country=GBR~USA~ZAF&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

In the USA I expect it was caused by July 4th celebrations. Much like
the present steep rise was powered by Thanksgiving travel. I expect the
same rise to happen in both the UK and USA due to Xmas and New Year.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Tuesday, December 8, 2020 at 3:25:39 AM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Mon, 7 Dec 2020 07:51:18 -0500, Bob Engelhardt
BobEng...@comcast.net> wrote:

On 12/6/2020 11:29 AM, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/first-time-us-state-will-require-disclosure-pcr-test-cycle-data
...

Know your source: \"Zero Hedge or ZeroHedge is a far-right libertarian
financial blog ...\" (Wiki)

It has links.

It has links to data it likes. The standard far-right trick is to ignore all the data they don\'t like.

> Is all data contaminated if it is linked to by someone that you don\'t like?

You do have to keep in mind that they will link to data that they like, and ignore everything that they don\'t like. This is cherry-picking

> Do you still trust Wiki?

A lot more than than Zero Hedge. Wiki works on getting it\'s report balanced. Zero Hedge lives by publishing unbalanced reports that people like Cursitor Doom like.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[server]

On Tue, 8 Dec 2020 11:05:44 +0000, Martin Brown
<\'\'\'newspam\'\'\'@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

On 08/12/2020 04:35, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Interestingly, the huge second spikes in europe are mostly over. They
were very short and not nearly as deadly as the first one.

That is because this time they locked down a bit faster and didn\'t throw
Covid infected bodies into care homes like they did in the first wave.

That\'s the masks, masks, masks argument. Do you think that some
biology might be involved too?

Keeping it out of care homes is the main reason why the UK death toll is
so much lower this time. The very rapid spread through the university
student population on some campuses also created a large number of cases
in teenagers and twenty somethings with a very low case fatality rate.

UK has just begun vaccinating the elderly with the Pfizer vaccine today.
Starting from the most elderly 80+ and working down the age range.

USA is very curious infection rate curve. Unique amongst the northern
hemisphere in that there was a peak in mid summer unlike anywhere else.

The USA is a collection of 50 very different states. It covers 3.8
million square miles. Its infection statistics are the superposition
of a lot of different regional curves.

South Africa (in their winter) has a similar July infection bump.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&country=GBR~USA~ZAF&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

In the USA I expect it was caused by July 4th celebrations.

The second case bump began about June 12. Nobody celebrates the 4th of
July in June. Cases had nearly peaked by the 4th. Celebrating the 4th
consists of going outdoors in the fresh air for an hour or so to watch
the fireworks, and, if you don\'t have kids to tuck away or a job to
show up for, maybe having a drink afterwards.

Much like
the present steep rise was powered by Thanksgiving travel.

That one started swinging up around October 1. Nobody flies to Mom\'s
turkey dinner in October. Thanksgiving was November 26, near the
flattening top of the current peak.

Do they have wild Thanksgiving celebrations in Belguim and France and
the UK?


Again, everything about this pandemic is blamed on social behavior,
whether it makes sense or not. Your examples don\'t make sense.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The best designs are necessarily accidental.

 

[bitrex]

On 12/6/2020 11:35 PM, Don Y wrote:

On 12/6/2020 6:32 PM, whit3rd wrote:
On Sunday, December 6, 2020 at 1:23:30 PM UTC-8,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

If a person is infectuous for 10 days, and 7.5% of the population is
infected at any time, in 130 days everyone will have had it. So it
follows that everyone has had it by now.

It does NOT follow, not from those numbers alone.   There has to be
transmission from one person
to another, for which you cite no estimate whatever.

There also is no evidence that 7.5% of the population is (or was at
some past time) infected or infectuous;
the 7.5% number being passed around is for tested hospital walk-ins,
not for \'the population\'.

And, as such, is a completely bogus number on which to base your
assumptions
for the population as a whole.

It\'s like looking at SELF REPORTED reviews of a restaurant and, because
\"every one\" is glowing, assuming that every DINER had a wonderful
experience
AND THAT YOU WILL, TOO!

If you want to know the prevalance of <whatever> in a population, you
have to
randomly sample.  And, NOT having a bias in your sampling is often harder
than you can imagine!

You want to know how often folks donate blood?  Well, just add a
question to
the questionnaire that you provide to BLOOD DONORS at your collection site.
Of course, the folks who NEVER give blood won\'t be represented in that
sample.  And, the folks who give blood FREQUENTLY will be over-represented
(potentially even questioned MULTIPLE times!).

A good way to ballpark the C-19 prevalence in a population (for areas
that have centralized sewage treatment) is waste-water sampling

 

[bitrex]

On 12/6/2020 11:35 PM, Don Y wrote:

On 12/6/2020 6:32 PM, whit3rd wrote:
On Sunday, December 6, 2020 at 1:23:30 PM UTC-8,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

If a person is infectuous for 10 days, and 7.5% of the population is
infected at any time, in 130 days everyone will have had it. So it
follows that everyone has had it by now.

It does NOT follow, not from those numbers alone.   There has to be
transmission from one person
to another, for which you cite no estimate whatever.

There also is no evidence that 7.5% of the population is (or was at
some past time) infected or infectuous;
the 7.5% number being passed around is for tested hospital walk-ins,
not for \'the population\'.

And, as such, is a completely bogus number on which to base your
assumptions
for the population as a whole.

It\'s like looking at SELF REPORTED reviews of a restaurant and, because
\"every one\" is glowing, assuming that every DINER had a wonderful
experience
AND THAT YOU WILL, TOO!

If you want to know the prevalance of <whatever> in a population, you
have to
randomly sample.  And, NOT having a bias in your sampling is often harder
than you can imagine!

You want to know how often folks donate blood?  Well, just add a
question to
the questionnaire that you provide to BLOOD DONORS at your collection site.
Of course, the folks who NEVER give blood won\'t be represented in that
sample.  And, the folks who give blood FREQUENTLY will be over-represented
(potentially even questioned MULTIPLE times!).

A good way to ballpark the C-19 prevalence in a population (for areas
that have centralized sewage treatment) is waste-water sampling

 

[Fred Bloggs]

On Tuesday, December 8, 2020 at 1:40:07 PM UTC-5, bitrex wrote:

On 12/6/2020 11:35 PM, Don Y wrote:
On 12/6/2020 6:32 PM, whit3rd wrote:
On Sunday, December 6, 2020 at 1:23:30 PM UTC-8,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

If a person is infectuous for 10 days, and 7.5% of the population is
infected at any time, in 130 days everyone will have had it. So it
follows that everyone has had it by now.

It does NOT follow, not from those numbers alone. There has to be
transmission from one person
to another, for which you cite no estimate whatever.

There also is no evidence that 7.5% of the population is (or was at
some past time) infected or infectuous;
the 7.5% number being passed around is for tested hospital walk-ins,
not for \'the population\'.

And, as such, is a completely bogus number on which to base your
assumptions
for the population as a whole.

It\'s like looking at SELF REPORTED reviews of a restaurant and, because
\"every one\" is glowing, assuming that every DINER had a wonderful
experience
AND THAT YOU WILL, TOO!

If you want to know the prevalance of <whatever> in a population, you
have to
randomly sample. And, NOT having a bias in your sampling is often harder
than you can imagine!

You want to know how often folks donate blood? Well, just add a
question to
the questionnaire that you provide to BLOOD DONORS at your collection site.
Of course, the folks who NEVER give blood won\'t be represented in that
sample. And, the folks who give blood FREQUENTLY will be over-represented
(potentially even questioned MULTIPLE times!).


A good way to ballpark the C-19 prevalence in a population (for areas
that have centralized sewage treatment) is waste-water sampling

That\'s something else they have to keep at -30oC until it can be analyzed.