parts crunch

We are figuring that there will be some gigantic parts availability
crunches pretty soon. There have be self-fueling parts panics before
this current supply-chain nightmare. So we are working on buying some
critical parts now, before the crunch.

So, can anyone guess what parts are most likely to be hard to get? We
may as well buy reels of the common cheap stuff. I design with a lot
of 1 uF ceramic caps and a few preferred surface-mount resistor
values, which are cheap, so we'll get lots of those.

I'm thinking FPGA and uPs and other chips that have no simple
substitutions.





--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

 

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote in
news:3slm8ftnnofj2mdgvrmjt5ialso0ilveuc@4ax.com:

We are figuring that there will be some gigantic parts availability
crunches pretty soon. There have be self-fueling parts panics
before
this current supply-chain nightmare. So we are working on buying
some
critical parts now, before the crunch.

So, can anyone guess what parts are most likely to be hard to get?
We
may as well buy reels of the common cheap stuff. I design with a
lot
of 1 uF ceramic caps and a few preferred surface-mount resistor
values, which are cheap, so we'll get lots of those.

I'm thinking FPGA and uPs and other chips that have no simple
substitutions.


Small node microchips are made over there.

But where are all the heavy power drivers and FETs made?

Are the 'big stuff' fabs still over here (if they ever were)?

As far as what to invest in or gather inventory from to anticipate
logostical problems in the future... I don't know, man.

Investing should have been last week, since things may start to
creep back up now (stocks, not virus progress).

 

[legg]

On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 09:31:34 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:

We are figuring that there will be some gigantic parts availability
crunches pretty soon. There have be self-fueling parts panics before
this current supply-chain nightmare. So we are working on buying some
critical parts now, before the crunch.

So, can anyone guess what parts are most likely to be hard to get? We
may as well buy reels of the common cheap stuff. I design with a lot
of 1 uF ceramic caps and a few preferred surface-mount resistor
values, which are cheap, so we'll get lots of those.

I'm thinking FPGA and uPs and other chips that have no simple
substitutions.

They're all either in inventory, or shipping from China, as usual.

RL

 

[Winfield Hill]

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote...

We are figuring that there will be some gigantic
parts availability crunches pretty soon. ...

The companies I work with are getting exemptions,
and are still running. They get piles of letters
from critical sectors, like defense, medicine, etc.
and present them to their local Governor to get an
exemption. Most of their staff work from home, but
a few come in to run machines. They stagger shifts,
keep distances, and stop periodically to wipe down.


--
Thanks,
- Win

 

Winfield Hill <winfieldhill@yahoo.com> wrote in
news:r6fmjo0a2o@drn.newsguy.com:

jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote...

We are figuring that there will be some gigantic
parts availability crunches pretty soon. ...

The companies I work with are getting exemptions,
and are still running. They get piles of letters
from critical sectors, like defense, medicine, etc.
and present them to their local Governor to get an
exemption. Most of their staff work from home, but
a few come in to run machines. They stagger shifts,
keep distances, and stop periodically to wipe down.

I noticed on my bike where a still open company had say ten cars
outside, all spacefully parked. All of the occupants of which funnel
through the same door, and into a much more confined 'same space'.

Even with the best air handling in a building, the possibility
still exists that a single breath might hold the little guys
(microdroplets)that transmit it to you.

The word for today is VECTOR.

 

[John Larkin]

On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 13:40:23 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 09:31:34 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:

We are figuring that there will be some gigantic parts availability
crunches pretty soon. There have be self-fueling parts panics before
this current supply-chain nightmare. So we are working on buying some
critical parts now, before the crunch.

So, can anyone guess what parts are most likely to be hard to get? We
may as well buy reels of the common cheap stuff. I design with a lot
of 1 uF ceramic caps and a few preferred surface-mount resistor
values, which are cheap, so we'll get lots of those.

I'm thinking FPGA and uPs and other chips that have no simple
substitutions.

They're all either in inventory, or shipping from China, as usual.

RL

I'm sure China is a mess too. There must be thousands of things
critical to a semiconductor or capacitor fab.

Even if production crunches along, a random buying panic can develop.

We're still getting quick-turn prototype PCBs. This one is from
Electronic Interconnect.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ul2z7k5rjihzuj5/Z482_PCB_Top.jpg?raw=1

https://www.dropbox.com/s/yjau853aun1xvb7/Z482_SFP.jpg?raw=1

I did that layout myself; you might spot a couple small mistakes. We
didn't do our usual reviews, but it's just a proto board. They were
delivered to my house on Saturday.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

[legg]

On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 11:50:30 -0700, John Larkin
<jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:

On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 13:40:23 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 09:31:34 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:

We are figuring that there will be some gigantic parts availability
crunches pretty soon. There have be self-fueling parts panics before
this current supply-chain nightmare. So we are working on buying some
critical parts now, before the crunch.

So, can anyone guess what parts are most likely to be hard to get? We
may as well buy reels of the common cheap stuff. I design with a lot
of 1 uF ceramic caps and a few preferred surface-mount resistor
values, which are cheap, so we'll get lots of those.

I'm thinking FPGA and uPs and other chips that have no simple
substitutions.

They're all either in inventory, or shipping from China, as usual.

RL

I'm sure China is a mess too. There must be thousands of things
critical to a semiconductor or capacitor fab.

Even if production crunches along, a random buying panic can develop.

We're still getting quick-turn prototype PCBs. This one is from
Electronic Interconnect.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ul2z7k5rjihzuj5/Z482_PCB_Top.jpg?raw=1

https://www.dropbox.com/s/yjau853aun1xvb7/Z482_SFP.jpg?raw=1

I did that layout myself; you might spot a couple small mistakes. We
didn't do our usual reviews, but it's just a proto board. They were
delivered to my house on Saturday.

Right. There's going to be a panic, so let's panic.

What you might be thinking about is what kind of shift
there's going to be in capital investment - which country
do you stick your investment in? The one that handled
a virus, or the one that just fell apart?

RL

 

[whit3rd]

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 9:31:41 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

We are figuring that there will be some gigantic parts availability
crunches pretty soon. There have be self-fueling parts panics before
this current supply-chain nightmare. So we are working on buying some
critical parts now, before the crunch.

So, can anyone guess what parts are most likely to be hard to get?

Well, in Canada, those P95 masks will be hard to get (someone across the
border is hoarding them).

Panic isn't the right word, of course. It's speculation and the hoarding
instinct as we see in magpies.

 

[mpm]

On Monday, April 6, 2020 at 12:31:41 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

> So, can anyone guess what parts are most likely to be hard to get?

Yes. It will be the one that you have so many of on the shelves, that you never even think twice to see if it needs re-ordering!!

 

On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 17:36:24 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 11:50:30 -0700, John Larkin
jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:

On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 13:40:23 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Mon, 06 Apr 2020 09:31:34 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:

We are figuring that there will be some gigantic parts availability
crunches pretty soon. There have be self-fueling parts panics before
this current supply-chain nightmare. So we are working on buying some
critical parts now, before the crunch.

So, can anyone guess what parts are most likely to be hard to get? We
may as well buy reels of the common cheap stuff. I design with a lot
of 1 uF ceramic caps and a few preferred surface-mount resistor
values, which are cheap, so we'll get lots of those.

I'm thinking FPGA and uPs and other chips that have no simple
substitutions.

They're all either in inventory, or shipping from China, as usual.

RL

I'm sure China is a mess too. There must be thousands of things
critical to a semiconductor or capacitor fab.

Even if production crunches along, a random buying panic can develop.

We're still getting quick-turn prototype PCBs. This one is from
Electronic Interconnect.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ul2z7k5rjihzuj5/Z482_PCB_Top.jpg?raw=1

https://www.dropbox.com/s/yjau853aun1xvb7/Z482_SFP.jpg?raw=1

I did that layout myself; you might spot a couple small mistakes. We
didn't do our usual reviews, but it's just a proto board. They were
delivered to my house on Saturday.

Right. There's going to be a panic, so let's panic.

What you might be thinking about is what kind of shift
there's going to be in capital investment - which country
do you stick your investment in? The one that handled
a virus, or the one that just fell apart?

We're heavy on The Netherlands. Their virus cases started early,
mid-February, and looks about peaked now, maybe on the down-slope.

Several small and mid-sized European countries have smooth well-shaped
curves that look near peak. Some other data is a mess.

I wonder if the differences between nearby countries is real.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard