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OT: Correcting peoples mispeceptions about \\\"exponential growth\\\" makes them more willing to take social distancing seri...
B
Bill Sloman
Guest
On Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 12:33:39 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
<snip>
In Australia, Victoria is showing a big peak - for us. The Australian new cases today were at 453, most them in Victoria. The US has ten times our population, and a hundred times as many new cases.
If winter were a factor, Tasmania would have at least some new cases, but it hasn\'t got any. Victoria is in lockdown, with contact tracing going flat out. New South Wales had some 14 new cases today, all but one from known contacts of the cluster which started when some visitor from Victoria infected a couple of locals. None of the other states have any new cases.
It probably had a lot more to do with when the first infected people arrived., and how fast the local population woke up to need to avoid situations where they might get infected. People getting frightened or bullied into avoiding getting together. and into wearing masks has a lot more effect than weather.
<snipped Fred Bloggs being remarkably silly>
> What\'s not random is the testing rate. In the USA, it has increased from zero in early March to over 800K/day now.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
The US wasn\'t testing nearly enough early in March - but there were only 290 new cases on the 10th March, and nothing in the shape of the new case er curve suggests that more testing would have found many more new cases back then. The 7-day moving average is now close to 70,000 new cases per day, and 800k tests a day still isn\'t high enough - the target is 5% positive outcomes, not 10%.
New infections do encourage more testing.
But if you are only getting 10% positive results, more testing isn\'t going to reveal significantly more cases. You are putting the cart before the horse.
<snipped more of Fred being silly>
Sure it is. the people who pay Anthony Watts to lie to the public about climate change are now paying him to lie to the public about Covid-19.
He never knew much about climate science, and he knows less about epidemiology.
Why bother to take it off?
John Larkin is a one-man wholesale wrongness excursion. Give him some data and he\'ll misinterpret it.
--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
On Fri, 17 Jul 2020 13:38:43 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, July 16, 2020 at 11:29:18 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Friday, July 17, 2020 at 6:21:00 AM UTC+10, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, July 16, 2020 at 3:46:44 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 16 Jul 2020 12:06:23 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, July 15, 2020 at 12:16:45 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
<snip>
The far south countries - Australia, S Africa, Argentina, Paraguay -
are showing big new case peaks. It\'s winter there.
In Australia, Victoria is showing a big peak - for us. The Australian new cases today were at 453, most them in Victoria. The US has ten times our population, and a hundred times as many new cases.
If winter were a factor, Tasmania would have at least some new cases, but it hasn\'t got any. Victoria is in lockdown, with contact tracing going flat out. New South Wales had some 14 new cases today, all but one from known contacts of the cluster which started when some visitor from Victoria infected a couple of locals. None of the other states have any new cases.
New York peaked at the tail end of winter. So did the northern European countries. We\'ll
have another winter soon too.
It probably had a lot more to do with when the first infected people arrived., and how fast the local population woke up to need to avoid situations where they might get infected. People getting frightened or bullied into avoiding getting together. and into wearing masks has a lot more effect than weather.
<snipped Fred Bloggs being remarkably silly>
> What\'s not random is the testing rate. In the USA, it has increased from zero in early March to over 800K/day now.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
The US wasn\'t testing nearly enough early in March - but there were only 290 new cases on the 10th March, and nothing in the shape of the new case er curve suggests that more testing would have found many more new cases back then. The 7-day moving average is now close to 70,000 new cases per day, and 800k tests a day still isn\'t high enough - the target is 5% positive outcomes, not 10%.
New infections do encourage more testing.
Positive feedback: in any given place, reported cases encourage
testing, and testing reveals cases.
But if you are only getting 10% positive results, more testing isn\'t going to reveal significantly more cases. You are putting the cart before the horse.
<snipped more of Fred being silly>
This is another interesting excursion into large-scale wrongness:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/25/does-universal-mask-wearing-decrease-or-increase-the-spread-of-covid-19/
Sure it is. the people who pay Anthony Watts to lie to the public about climate change are now paying him to lie to the public about Covid-19.
He never knew much about climate science, and he knows less about epidemiology.
I walk over the US101/I80 freeway twice a day. I\'d estimate that 20%
of the drivers are alone in their car and wearing a mask.
Why bother to take it off?
John Larkin is a one-man wholesale wrongness excursion. Give him some data and he\'ll misinterpret it.
--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
R
Ricketty C
Guest
On Monday, July 27, 2020 at 11:09:28 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
So what is going on that is causing the case rise? Is the population getting used to the virus and not being appropriately concerned about it anymore? Are the politicians opening the economy and encouraging a return to previous habits?
I noticed that today the death total in the US reached 150,000, about three Vietnam wars. I understand that throughout history the only cause that actually makes a blip in the human population is disease. Wars don\'t have enough impact to cause a noticeable change in global population.
--
Rick C.
+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
On Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 12:33:39 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
The far south countries - Australia, S Africa, Argentina, Paraguay -
are showing big new case peaks. It\'s winter there.
In Australia, Victoria is showing a big peak - for us. The Australian new cases today were at 453, most them in Victoria. The US has ten times our population, and a hundred times as many new cases.
If winter were a factor, Tasmania would have at least some new cases, but it hasn\'t got any. Victoria is in lockdown, with contact tracing going flat out. New South Wales had some 14 new cases today, all but one from known contacts of the cluster which started when some visitor from Victoria infected a couple of locals. None of the other states have any new cases.
So what is going on that is causing the case rise? Is the population getting used to the virus and not being appropriately concerned about it anymore? Are the politicians opening the economy and encouraging a return to previous habits?
I noticed that today the death total in the US reached 150,000, about three Vietnam wars. I understand that throughout history the only cause that actually makes a blip in the human population is disease. Wars don\'t have enough impact to cause a noticeable change in global population.
--
Rick C.
+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
B
Bill Sloman
Guest
On Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 12:45:29 PM UTC+10, Ricketty C wrote:
The people who got infected in Victoria don\'t seem to be as good at practicing social distancing as the people who got infected by the first wave of infections, and some of people the contact tracers told to isolate themselves didn\'t, which can be an expensive decision if the police get to nail you for it.
> Are the politicians opening the economy and encouraging a return to previous habits?
Not at all. Victoria went back into lock-down very rapidly, and some hot spots got closed down very tightly.
> I noticed that today the death total in the US reached 150,000, about three Vietnam wars. I understand that throughout history the only cause that actually makes a blip in the human population is disease. Wars don\'t have enough impact to cause a noticeable change in global population.
Covid-19 isn\'t likely to kill enough people to do that, but it\'s still nasty.
--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
On Monday, July 27, 2020 at 11:09:28 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 12:33:39 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
The far south countries - Australia, S Africa, Argentina, Paraguay -
are showing big new case peaks. It\'s winter there.
In Australia, Victoria is showing a big peak - for us. The Australian new cases today were at 453, most them in Victoria. The US has ten times our population, and a hundred times as many new cases.
If winter were a factor, Tasmania would have at least some new cases, but it hasn\'t got any. Victoria is in lockdown, with contact tracing going flat out. New South Wales had some 14 new cases today, all but one from known contacts of the cluster which started when some visitor from Victoria infected a couple of locals. None of the other states have any new cases.
So what is going on that is causing the case rise? Is the population getting used to the virus and not being appropriately concerned about it anymore?
The people who got infected in Victoria don\'t seem to be as good at practicing social distancing as the people who got infected by the first wave of infections, and some of people the contact tracers told to isolate themselves didn\'t, which can be an expensive decision if the police get to nail you for it.
> Are the politicians opening the economy and encouraging a return to previous habits?
Not at all. Victoria went back into lock-down very rapidly, and some hot spots got closed down very tightly.
> I noticed that today the death total in the US reached 150,000, about three Vietnam wars. I understand that throughout history the only cause that actually makes a blip in the human population is disease. Wars don\'t have enough impact to cause a noticeable change in global population.
Covid-19 isn\'t likely to kill enough people to do that, but it\'s still nasty.
--
Bill Sloman, Sydney