Nano Limitation

J

Jacky Luk

Guest
I read a local magazine today in which Paolo Gargini (someone at Intel) said
the Moore's law would no longer be in effect after 20 years time. After that
time, no more extra amount of transistors could be implanted into equal
sized (which equals to today's size I bet) VLSI chips. (No technological
advances?!)
It would be around 16 nano meters and that would be on the maximum for
the personnel at Intel!! Would that be a very frustrating story? Any
comments are
welcome!

--

Jacky Luk
 
"Jacky Luk" <nospam@nospam.com> wrote in message
news:bqsgu5$obj127@imsp212.netvigator.com...
I read a local magazine today in which Paolo Gargini (someone at Intel)
said
the Moore's law would no longer be in effect after 20 years time. After
that
time, no more extra amount of transistors could be implanted into equal
sized (which equals to today's size I bet) VLSI chips. (No technological
advances?!)
It would be around 16 nano meters and that would be on the maximum for
the personnel at Intel!! Would that be a very frustrating story? Any
comments are
welcome!

--

Jacky Luk
Click to expand...
I always take these ultimate pronouncements with a grain of salt. Nobody
knows what new breakthrough technologies lie twenty years down the road,
perhaps relegating solid state physics to the dust bin of historical arcana.

Famous Last Words:

"Nuclear power will be too cheap to meter"

"The check is in the mail"

and of course the obligatory and seemingly endless Armageddon predictions
;-)
 
ok... maybe still too early to say.... :)

"Baphomet" <no.spam@no.spam.us> ŚbślĽó news:vt3koe8d92p60@corp.supernews.com
¤¤źśźg...
"Jacky Luk" <nospam@nospam.com> wrote in message
news:bqsgu5$obj127@imsp212.netvigator.com...
I read a local magazine today in which Paolo Gargini (someone at Intel)
said
the Moore's law would no longer be in effect after 20 years time. After
that
time, no more extra amount of transistors could be implanted into equal
sized (which equals to today's size I bet) VLSI chips. (No technological
advances?!)
It would be around 16 nano meters and that would be on the maximum for
the personnel at Intel!! Would that be a very frustrating story? Any
comments are
welcome!

--

Jacky Luk

I always take these ultimate pronouncements with a grain of salt. Nobody
knows what new breakthrough technologies lie twenty years down the road,
perhaps relegating solid state physics to the dust bin of historical
arcana.

Famous Last Words:

"Nuclear power will be too cheap to meter"

"The check is in the mail"

and of course the obligatory and seemingly endless Armageddon predictions
;-)
Click to expand...
 
Weren't these the same guys that said that Y2K would bring the entire planet
to a standstill?....planes and satellites falling from the sky at the stroke
of midnight?
-Kim

"Jacky Luk" <nospam@nospam.com> wrote in message
news:bqski9$eph1@imsp212.netvigator.com...
ok... maybe still too early to say.... :)

"Baphomet" <no.spam@no.spam.us> ŚbślĽó
news:vt3koe8d92p60@corp.supernews.com
¤¤źśźg...

"Jacky Luk" <nospam@nospam.com> wrote in message
news:bqsgu5$obj127@imsp212.netvigator.com...
I read a local magazine today in which Paolo Gargini (someone at
Intel)
said
the Moore's law would no longer be in effect after 20 years time.
After
that
time, no more extra amount of transistors could be implanted into
equal
sized (which equals to today's size I bet) VLSI chips. (No
technological
advances?!)
It would be around 16 nano meters and that would be on the maximum for
the personnel at Intel!! Would that be a very frustrating story? Any
comments are
welcome!

--

Jacky Luk

I always take these ultimate pronouncements with a grain of salt. Nobody
knows what new breakthrough technologies lie twenty years down the road,
perhaps relegating solid state physics to the dust bin of historical
arcana.

Famous Last Words:

"Nuclear power will be too cheap to meter"

"The check is in the mail"

and of course the obligatory and seemingly endless Armageddon
predictions
;-)
Click to expand...
 
The person being referred to was the authority of chips manufacturing at
Intel. But I don't know what the name and his pos was.... someone probably
really "substantial" at Intel.

"Neil" <ksleep@sympatico.ca> ŚbślĽó
news:LlxAb.18329$yd.2923797@news20.bellglobal.com ¤¤źśźg...
Weren't these the same guys that said that Y2K would bring the entire
planet
to a standstill?....planes and satellites falling from the sky at the
stroke
of midnight?
-Kim

"Jacky Luk" <nospam@nospam.com> wrote in message
news:bqski9$eph1@imsp212.netvigator.com...
ok... maybe still too early to say.... :)

"Baphomet" <no.spam@no.spam.us> ŚbślĽó
news:vt3koe8d92p60@corp.supernews.com
¤¤źśźg...

"Jacky Luk" <nospam@nospam.com> wrote in message
news:bqsgu5$obj127@imsp212.netvigator.com...
I read a local magazine today in which Paolo Gargini (someone at
Intel)
said
the Moore's law would no longer be in effect after 20 years time.
After
that
time, no more extra amount of transistors could be implanted into
equal
sized (which equals to today's size I bet) VLSI chips. (No
technological
advances?!)
It would be around 16 nano meters and that would be on the maximum
for
the personnel at Intel!! Would that be a very frustrating story? Any
comments are
welcome!

--

Jacky Luk

I always take these ultimate pronouncements with a grain of salt.
Nobody
knows what new breakthrough technologies lie twenty years down the
road,
perhaps relegating solid state physics to the dust bin of historical
arcana.

Famous Last Words:

"Nuclear power will be too cheap to meter"

"The check is in the mail"

and of course the obligatory and seemingly endless Armageddon
predictions
;-)
Click to expand...
 
He generally spoke about no matter what kinds of raw materials and new
techniques were unhelpful to further minimization of the chips.... grab some
local magazines and it should be in the headline.... Thanks

"Jacky Luk" <nospam@nospam.com> ŚbślĽó
news:bqul6u$22s3@imsp212.netvigator.com ¤¤źśźg...
The person being referred to was the authority of chips manufacturing at
Intel. But I don't know what the name and his pos was.... someone probably
really "substantial" at Intel.

"Neil" <ksleep@sympatico.ca> ŚbślĽó
news:LlxAb.18329$yd.2923797@news20.bellglobal.com ¤¤źśźg...
Weren't these the same guys that said that Y2K would bring the entire
planet
to a standstill?....planes and satellites falling from the sky at the
stroke
of midnight?
-Kim

"Jacky Luk" <nospam@nospam.com> wrote in message
news:bqski9$eph1@imsp212.netvigator.com...
ok... maybe still too early to say.... :)

"Baphomet" <no.spam@no.spam.us> ŚbślĽó
news:vt3koe8d92p60@corp.supernews.com
¤¤źśźg...

"Jacky Luk" <nospam@nospam.com> wrote in message
news:bqsgu5$obj127@imsp212.netvigator.com...
I read a local magazine today in which Paolo Gargini (someone at
Intel)
said
the Moore's law would no longer be in effect after 20 years time.
After
that
time, no more extra amount of transistors could be implanted into
equal
sized (which equals to today's size I bet) VLSI chips. (No
technological
advances?!)
It would be around 16 nano meters and that would be on the maximum
for
the personnel at Intel!! Would that be a very frustrating story?
Any
comments are
welcome!

--

Jacky Luk

I always take these ultimate pronouncements with a grain of salt.
Nobody
knows what new breakthrough technologies lie twenty years down the
road,
perhaps relegating solid state physics to the dust bin of historical
arcana.

Famous Last Words:

"Nuclear power will be too cheap to meter"

"The check is in the mail"

and of course the obligatory and seemingly endless Armageddon
predictions
;-)
Click to expand...
 
"Jacky Luk" <nospam@nospam.com> wrote in message
news:bqsgu5$obj127@imsp212.netvigator.com...
I read a local magazine today in which Paolo Gargini (someone at
Intel)> said
the Moore's law would no longer be in effect after 20 years time.
After> that
time, no more extra amount of transistors could be implanted into
equal
sized (which equals to today's size I bet) VLSI chips. (No
technological
advances?!)
It would be around 16 nano meters and that would be on the maximum
for
the personnel at Intel!! Would that be a very frustrating story?
Any> > > > > > comments are> > > > > > welcome!
Click to expand...

Hi Jacky. If no more technological advances are made then indeed
progress may grind to a halt. But technoadvances have been made every
year for many decades now.

The technical word for the conclusion is 'bull'. Its a very popular
technical writing style.

Regards, NT
 
"N. Thornton" <bigcat@meeow.co.uk> wrote in message
news:a7076635.0312070530.10c7d5fb@posting.google.com...
"Jacky Luk" <nospam@nospam.com> wrote in message
news:bqsgu5$obj127@imsp212.netvigator.com...
I read a local magazine today in which Paolo Gargini (someone
at
Intel)> said
the Moore's law would no longer be in effect after 20 years
time.
After> that
time, no more extra amount of transistors could be implanted
into
equal
sized (which equals to today's size I bet) VLSI chips. (No
technological
advances?!)
It would be around 16 nano meters and that would be on the
maximum
for
the personnel at Intel!! Would that be a very frustrating
story?
Any> > > > > > comments are> > > > > > welcome!


Hi Jacky. If no more technological advances are made then indeed
progress may grind to a halt. But technoadvances have been made every
year for many decades now.

The technical word for the conclusion is 'bull'. Its a very popular
technical writing style.

Regards, NT
Click to expand...
ftp://download.intel.com/research/silicon/Gordon_Moore_ISSCC_021003.pdf
 
Jacky Luk wrote:
I read a local magazine today in which Paolo Gargini (someone at Intel) said
the Moore's law would no longer be in effect after 20 years time. After that
time, no more extra amount of transistors could be implanted into equal
sized (which equals to today's size I bet) VLSI chips. (No technological
advances?!)
It would be around 16 nano meters and that would be on the maximum for
the personnel at Intel!! Would that be a very frustrating story? Any
comments are
welcome!
Click to expand...
All current semiconductor mfgrs are heavily invested in
silicon-based tech (oh, don't get all III-V on me, you know
what I mean) because it's worked so well for so long. But
that's really where the limits come from.

Other technologies that are barely in the "laboratory
curiosity" stage promise much higher density, but getting
them to the production floor may take the full 20 years
it'll take to take silicon to its limits. Wait and see.

Mark L. Fergerson
 
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