Mr. M vs. SEC: Magic Numbers

Magic Number:

#1 420
#2 500,000
#3 700,000?

Mr. M claims to have 1M RoboTaxis on the road by 2020. That's less than a year away. Even if every single T car will participle, he is implying a production of at least 700,000 by 2020. Why is the SEC not saying anything?

 

On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 12:38:12 PM UTC-4, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

Magic Number:

#1 420
#2 500,000
#3 700,000?

Mr. M claims to have 1M RoboTaxis on the road by 2020. That's less than a year away. Even if every single T car will participle, he is implying a production of at least 700,000 by 2020. Why is the SEC not saying anything?

No, that is over a year and a half. "By 2020" means by some point in 2020. Now redo your maths. Also, I'm not clear on your numbers. They have made a LOT of cars to date. They will have another factory open this year (in theory) churning out another third of a million a year. The statements of Shanghai being open by the end of this year are exactly that, the end of this year.

There is also the issue that talking about expectations in the following year is far enough out that it would not be considered guidance in the same way as an annual report.

--

Rick C.

- Get a 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 10:12:37 AM UTC-7, gnuarm.de...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 1:04:15 PM UTC-4, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 9:49:49 AM UTC-7, gnuarm.de...@gmail.com wrote:
On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 12:38:12 PM UTC-4, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
Magic Number:

#1 420
#2 500,000
#3 700,000?

Mr. M claims to have 1M RoboTaxis on the road by 2020. That's less than a year away. Even if every single T car will participle, he is implying a production of at least 700,000 by 2020. Why is the SEC not saying anything?

No, that is over a year and a half. "By 2020" means by some point in 2020. Now redo your maths. Also, I'm not clear on your numbers. They have made a LOT of cars to date. They will have another factory open this year (in theory) churning out another third of a million a year. The statements of Shanghai being open by the end of this year are exactly that, the end of this year.

I don't know at what point of production they claims to be self drivable, but any car over a year old probably don't have the necessary stuffs. So, if by their gross (negligence) estimate of self-driving hardware (plus software updates), i would be surprise to find more than 300,000.

I was reading about just that. I believe they are using gen 3 hardware in all model 3 cars. The S and X are still using gen 2 hardware. So we may need upgrades, but I expect they will offer it. There is word on the street they will include it in new S and X models when they get a refresh in the near future.

Even so, it is not clear that the gen 3 software will be required for full self driving.

Too early to tell, it is also not clear that the gen 3 hardware will be sufficient for full self driving.

The system has not been proven (acceptable by regulations) yet; so, it may yet require another updates for all cars in the future.

Expecting regulatory approvals in less than 1.5 years is just gross negligence miss-representation.

 

On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 1:04:15 PM UTC-4, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 9:49:49 AM UTC-7, gnuarm.de...@gmail.com wrote:
On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 12:38:12 PM UTC-4, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
Magic Number:

#1 420
#2 500,000
#3 700,000?

Mr. M claims to have 1M RoboTaxis on the road by 2020. That's less than a year away. Even if every single T car will participle, he is implying a production of at least 700,000 by 2020. Why is the SEC not saying anything?

No, that is over a year and a half. "By 2020" means by some point in 2020. Now redo your maths. Also, I'm not clear on your numbers. They have made a LOT of cars to date. They will have another factory open this year (in theory) churning out another third of a million a year. The statements of Shanghai being open by the end of this year are exactly that, the end of this year.

I don't know at what point of production they claims to be self drivable, but any car over a year old probably don't have the necessary stuffs. So, if by their gross (negligence) estimate of self-driving hardware (plus software updates), i would be surprise to find more than 300,000.

I was reading about just that. I believe they are using gen 3 hardware in all model 3 cars. The S and X are still using gen 2 hardware. So we may need upgrades, but I expect they will offer it. There is word on the street they will include it in new S and X models when they get a refresh in the near future.

Even so, it is not clear that the gen 3 software will be required for full self driving.

--

Rick C.

+ Get a 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 9:49:49 AM UTC-7, gnuarm.de...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 12:38:12 PM UTC-4, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
Magic Number:

#1 420
#2 500,000
#3 700,000?

Mr. M claims to have 1M RoboTaxis on the road by 2020. That's less than a year away. Even if every single T car will participle, he is implying a production of at least 700,000 by 2020. Why is the SEC not saying anything?

No, that is over a year and a half. "By 2020" means by some point in 2020. Now redo your maths. Also, I'm not clear on your numbers. They have made a LOT of cars to date. They will have another factory open this year (in theory) churning out another third of a million a year. The statements of Shanghai being open by the end of this year are exactly that, the end of this year.

I don't know at what point of production they claims to be self drivable, but any car over a year old probably don't have the necessary stuffs. So, if by their gross (negligence) estimate of self-driving hardware (plus software updates), i would be surprise to find more than 300,000.

 

On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 1:30:01 PM UTC-4, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 10:12:37 AM UTC-7, gnuarm.de...@gmail.com wrote:
On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 1:04:15 PM UTC-4, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 9:49:49 AM UTC-7, gnuarm.de...@gmail.com wrote:
On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 12:38:12 PM UTC-4, edward...@gmail.com wrote:
Magic Number:

#1 420
#2 500,000
#3 700,000?

Mr. M claims to have 1M RoboTaxis on the road by 2020. That's less than a year away. Even if every single T car will participle, he is implying a production of at least 700,000 by 2020. Why is the SEC not saying anything?

No, that is over a year and a half. "By 2020" means by some point in 2020. Now redo your maths. Also, I'm not clear on your numbers. They have made a LOT of cars to date. They will have another factory open this year (in theory) churning out another third of a million a year. The statements of Shanghai being open by the end of this year are exactly that, the end of this year.

I don't know at what point of production they claims to be self drivable, but any car over a year old probably don't have the necessary stuffs. So, if by their gross (negligence) estimate of self-driving hardware (plus software updates), i would be surprise to find more than 300,000.

I was reading about just that. I believe they are using gen 3 hardware in all model 3 cars. The S and X are still using gen 2 hardware. So we may need upgrades, but I expect they will offer it. There is word on the street they will include it in new S and X models when they get a refresh in the near future.

Even so, it is not clear that the gen 3 software will be required for full self driving.

Too early to tell, it is also not clear that the gen 3 hardware will be sufficient for full self driving.

The system has not been proven (acceptable by regulations) yet; so, it may yet require another updates for all cars in the future.

Expecting regulatory approvals in less than 1.5 years is just gross negligence miss-representation.

I think you are reading too much into what he said. Here is the headline I read...

"Elon Musk claims Tesla will have 1 million robotaxis on roads next year, but warns he’s missed the mark before"

Elon often qualifies his statements. He knows he is promoting rather than actually forecasting.

One very clear fly in the ointment for the robotaxi as he described for car owners... if everyone can be a taxi service, the supply can easily outstrip the demand. But I guess at some point people would just stop buying cars and only use taxis. Still, it will reach some level where the cost of the taxi would be comparable to the cost of owning the car plus some profit, limiting the *big* money to be made this way.

--

Rick C.

-- Get a 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[John Larkin]

On Fri, 26 Apr 2019 09:38:08 -0700 (PDT), edward.ming.lee@gmail.com
wrote:

Magic Number:

#1 420
#2 500,000
#3 700,000?

Mr. M claims to have 1M RoboTaxis on the road by 2020. That's less than a year away. Even if every single T car will participle, he is implying a production of at least 700,000 by 2020. Why is the SEC not saying anything?

Tesla lost 0.7 gigabucks last quarter. Sales are down. They will run
out of cash. The only way they can survive is to raise more investment
dollars, and the only way to do that is for Boy Genius to promise some
technology breakthrough even spiffier than what they have now.

Good chance the entire empire will crash, Solar City and Boring and
Powerwall and all. Maybe the SpaceX rocket thing will survive.

I wonder how many of the car deposits were actually low-risk
speculations, and how many will become sales.




--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 4:54:49 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:

On Fri, 26 Apr 2019 09:38:08 -0700 (PDT), edward.ming.lee@gmail.com
wrote:

Magic Number:

#1 420
#2 500,000
#3 700,000?

Mr. M claims to have 1M RoboTaxis on the road by 2020. That's less than a year away. Even if every single T car will participle, he is implying a production of at least 700,000 by 2020. Why is the SEC not saying anything?

Tesla lost 0.7 gigabucks last quarter. Sales are down. They will run
out of cash. The only way they can survive is to raise more investment
dollars, and the only way to do that is for Boy Genius to promise some
technology breakthrough even spiffier than what they have now.

Good chance the entire empire will crash, Solar City and Boring and
Powerwall and all. Maybe the SpaceX rocket thing will survive.

I wonder how many of the car deposits were actually low-risk
speculations, and how many will become sales.

Larkin is far from a financial genius. While Tesla may need to raise more capital funds, they are a long way from going under. At the end of the quarter they had $2.2 billion in cash equivalents, so they could continue to lose money at the current rate if necessary, but it's not going to happen. They are undergoing a transition while ramping up for sales in China and Europe and the current situation was expected by anyone familiar with the stock. I've been posting in a Tesla forum about this to much derision by the fanboys.

The good news is that by the end of the year the Shanghai factory is expected to be online and bringing in more revenue. Even if it is late the current quarter will not be repeated again with sales of the model 3 ramping up in China and Europe. So the outlook for 2020 is good.

A good example of Larkin's lack of knowledge is that he is still going on about the reservations while they are pretty much played out. He doesn't know much about Tesla because he has adopted a bias about the company apparently because of a personal dislike for Musk. Oh well, no accounting for taste.

--

Rick C.

-+ Get a 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Jeroen Belleman]

On 2019-04-26 18:38, edward.ming.lee@gmail.com wrote:

Magic Number:

#1 420 #2 500,000 #3 700,000?

Mr. M claims to have 1M RoboTaxis on the road by 2020. That's less
than a year away. Even if every single T car will participle, he is
implying a production of at least 700,000 by 2020. Why is the SEC
not saying anything?

Just what we need. We already have most cars transporting only
one person. Soon our roads will be clogged with cars transporting
no one.

Jeroen Belleman

 

On Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 6:25:33 AM UTC-4, Jeroen Belleman wrote:

On 2019-04-26 18:38, edward.ming.lee@gmail.com wrote:
Magic Number:

#1 420 #2 500,000 #3 700,000?

Mr. M claims to have 1M RoboTaxis on the road by 2020. That's less
than a year away. Even if every single T car will participle, he is
implying a production of at least 700,000 by 2020. Why is the SEC
not saying anything?


Just what we need. We already have most cars transporting only
one person. Soon our roads will be clogged with cars transporting
no one.

Lol! So then we can convert all the parking lots back to paradise.

--

Rick C.

+- Get a 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[whit3rd]

On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 1:54:49 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

Tesla lost 0.7 gigabucks last quarter. Sales are down. They will run
out of cash.

Err.... the last-quarter draw from cash reserves is for a good reason,
they're expanding.

Sales 'are down' may be because they filled a bunch of backed-up preorders
in the previous quarter.

There's no imminent 'run out of cash' situation. It's a reminder of the
Apple situation about 20 years ago: a couple of pundits thought it
was too small to survive. October 2018, Apple was the largest corporation
(market capitalization) in the world.

 

On Friday, May 3, 2019 at 5:33:53 AM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:

On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 1:54:49 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

Tesla lost 0.7 gigabucks last quarter. Sales are down. They will run
out of cash.

Err.... the last-quarter draw from cash reserves is for a good reason,
they're expanding.

Sales 'are down' may be because they filled a bunch of backed-up preorders
in the previous quarter.

There's no imminent 'run out of cash' situation. It's a reminder of the
Apple situation about 20 years ago: a couple of pundits thought it
was too small to survive. October 2018, Apple was the largest corporation
(market capitalization) in the world.

I wouldn't compare Tesla at this stage to Apple. Tesla is in a *very* capital intensive business and needs to introduce new products successfully as well as entice the world to convert to a new paradigm of automotive propulsion. It is too early to say any of this has been successful.

I expect by the end of the year we will have a better idea if Tesla will be around in 5 years or not. It is not inconceivable that five years from now they will not have been successful and will have to close the doors. On the other hand, of things go according to plan they may be on the way to becoming the largest auto maker in the world.

--

Rick C.

++ Get a 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Friday, May 3, 2019 at 6:41:37 AM UTC-7, gnuarm.de...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, May 3, 2019 at 5:33:53 AM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 1:54:49 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

Tesla lost 0.7 gigabucks last quarter. Sales are down. They will run
out of cash.

Err.... the last-quarter draw from cash reserves is for a good reason,
they're expanding.

Sales 'are down' may be because they filled a bunch of backed-up preorders
in the previous quarter.

There's no imminent 'run out of cash' situation. It's a reminder of the
Apple situation about 20 years ago: a couple of pundits thought it
was too small to survive. October 2018, Apple was the largest corporation
(market capitalization) in the world.

I wouldn't compare Tesla at this stage to Apple. Tesla is in a *very* capital intensive business and needs to introduce new products successfully as well as entice the world to convert to a new paradigm of automotive propulsion. It is too early to say any of this has been successful.

I expect by the end of the year we will have a better idea if Tesla will be around in 5 years or not. It is not inconceivable that five years from now they will not have been successful and will have to close the doors. On the other hand, of things go according to plan they may be on the way to becoming the largest auto maker in the world.

One thing to consider is that they have to separate the self-driving stuffs from car building stuffs. For self-driving to grow, our car makers has to adopt it. If not, they will just support something else. No car makers would support another makers' tech, no matter how good it is. For example, Tesla was far ahead in charging tech, but everybody else went to a different tech.

 

On Friday, May 3, 2019 at 8:02:21 AM UTC-7, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, May 3, 2019 at 6:41:37 AM UTC-7, gnuarm.de...@gmail.com wrote:
On Friday, May 3, 2019 at 5:33:53 AM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 1:54:49 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

Tesla lost 0.7 gigabucks last quarter. Sales are down. They will run
out of cash.

Err.... the last-quarter draw from cash reserves is for a good reason,
they're expanding.

Sales 'are down' may be because they filled a bunch of backed-up preorders
in the previous quarter.

There's no imminent 'run out of cash' situation. It's a reminder of the
Apple situation about 20 years ago: a couple of pundits thought it
was too small to survive. October 2018, Apple was the largest corporation
(market capitalization) in the world.

I wouldn't compare Tesla at this stage to Apple. Tesla is in a *very* capital intensive business and needs to introduce new products successfully as well as entice the world to convert to a new paradigm of automotive propulsion. It is too early to say any of this has been successful.

I expect by the end of the year we will have a better idea if Tesla will be around in 5 years or not. It is not inconceivable that five years from now they will not have been successful and will have to close the doors. On the other hand, of things go according to plan they may be on the way to becoming the largest auto maker in the world.

One thing to consider is that they have to separate the self-driving stuffs from car building stuffs. For self-driving to grow, our car makers has to adopt it. If not, they will just support something else. No car makers would support another makers' tech, no matter how good it is. For example, Tesla was far ahead in charging tech, but everybody else went to a different tech.

Other car makers has to adopt it.

 

On Friday, May 3, 2019 at 11:02:21 AM UTC-4, edward...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, May 3, 2019 at 6:41:37 AM UTC-7, gnuarm.de...@gmail.com wrote:

I expect by the end of the year we will have a better idea if Tesla will be around in 5 years or not. It is not inconceivable that five years from now they will not have been successful and will have to close the doors. On the other hand, of things go according to plan they may be on the way to becoming the largest auto maker in the world.

One thing to consider is that they have to separate the self-driving stuffs from car building stuffs. For self-driving to grow, our car makers has to adopt it. If not, they will just support something else. No car makers would support another makers' tech, no matter how good it is. For example, Tesla was far ahead in charging tech, but everybody else went to a different tech.

I think your comments about other automakers adopting technology is not much on target. The other automakers aren't using Tesla chargers because they can't. While Musk has indicated he would be happy to discuss sharing the network, clearly it would require substantial investment by others and to this point they are not interested in doing that. When I visited the Chevy dealer about the Bolt they were happy to tell me all about it and I had a test drive, etc. But when I asked about charging they looked very sheepish and would only say, "charging happens"... While charging is a huge advantage for Tesla, the other automakers don't need it just yet and are letting the infrastructure develop on it's own mostly. So it's not that Tesla won't share, it's more than the other car companies aren't interested. The "technology" isn't different BTW. They are just power supplies controlled by the car. The only real difference is the connector used and the details of the communications. Tesla makes a Chademo adapter you can use on the Electrify America chargers.

As to the self driving tech, the other companies would very much like to share that. GM is sharing with an Asian company. I would bet money that in a few years Tesla self driving tech shows up in other vehicles. This is not something a company can produce itself in a few years. Tesla has one *huge* advantage which is testing their software in billions of vehicle miles on the cars they are selling.

It's not unprecedented for one car maker to support another. They have bought stock in each other and use parts from one another or sell cars made by others or even build assembly plants together as GM and Toyota did. I don't see any impediment to selling/sharing self driving technology. In fact, the big issue will be insurance. It won't make sense any longer to buy your own insurance since you aren't driving the car. The car maker will need to provide the insurance. I can see the automakers forming a coalition to insure all self driving cars.

--

Rick C.

--- Get a 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209