Latency Graph

[Rick C]

The CDC publishes data on the new infections each day tracked by the day the person was originally infected. I didn't notice right away they provide this data each day in a one line table I can copy off to a spread sheet. For some reason they didn't update this over the weekend.

I have three days of data in a chart and it shows changes in the count each day even going back a month! So it is very clear that the number of infections reported on any given day is vastly different from the true number. As of 3/19 the peak day of new infections was 3/9 at 194. Today that same day is reported as 559 new infections. Clearly the date people show as infected is very different from the date they were actually infected, by up to two weeks!

What is the impact of that on the counts we see every day? I'm thinking a multiplier of at least 3, likely more.

The numbers that really matter are those they don't release that I've seen. That's the number of hospital beds and ICU beds in use by CV19 patients. They're the numbers that will have an impact on the functioning of the hospitals. None of the other stuff means much because we don't know how many infected there are and we don't know what the infection rate is and we don't know what the mortality rate is. But we know how many hospital beds we have and how many ICU beds we have. I'd like to see how the CV19 patients are taxing these numbers. Everything else is really just a means of getting this info.

Well, that and the death counts, but those they publish.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[mpm]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 8:17:44 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
> The CDC publishes data on the new infections each day tracked by the day the person was originally infected. I didn't notice right away they provide this data each day in a one line table I can copy off to a spread sheet. For some reason they didn't update this over the weekend.

See my earlier comment about how, if this Covid-19 thing was such a big deal, was it asking too much for the CDC to open on the weekends?

(The comment, in response to a notice on the CDC website that they would only update totals 4PM Mon-Fri). WTF?

They should be working around-the-clock on this one!!

Also, the Tampa Tribune (I think?) ran an article that Florida's reported numbers are borderline incomprehensible because cases come and go off the lists without comment, some re-appearing days later at new cases. And there's no consistency to the methodology either: One day the numbers are by total number of cases by type and outcome, the next it's reported geographically, or by onset of illness, etc.. No way to correlate.

Maybe it's fixed now (I doubt it).
But no matter since I ALWAYS take numbers I hear from the Internet and "big government" with high skepticism.

 

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 18:31:34 -0700 (PDT), mpm <mpmillard@aol.com>
wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 8:17:44 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
The CDC publishes data on the new infections each day tracked by the day the person was originally infected. I didn't notice right away they provide this data each day in a one line table I can copy off to a spread sheet. For some reason they didn't update this over the weekend.

See my earlier comment about how, if this Covid-19 thing was such a big deal, was it asking too much for the CDC to open on the weekends?

(The comment, in response to a notice on the CDC website that they would only update totals 4PM Mon-Fri). WTF?

They should be working around-the-clock on this one!!

Also, the Tampa Tribune (I think?) ran an article that Florida's reported numbers are borderline incomprehensible because cases come and go off the lists without comment, some re-appearing days later at new cases. And there's no consistency to the methodology either: One day the numbers are by total number of cases by type and outcome, the next it's reported geographically, or by onset of illness, etc.. No way to correlate.

Maybe it's fixed now (I doubt it).
But no matter since I ALWAYS take numbers I hear from the Internet and "big government" with high skepticism.

Yes, the data is terrible. And the distribution of test kits is
changing dynamically.

This site is nice:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Click on a country on the left, then lower right "daily increase."
Interesting trends.

In the book I'm re-reading, Barry's The Great Influenza, Johns Hopkins
plays a major role in the development of scientific medicine, and in
the great 1918 epidemic.





--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 20:27:03 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:

Yes, the data is terrible. And the distribution of test kits is
changing dynamically.

This site is nice:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Click on a country on the left, then lower right "daily increase."
Interesting trends.

The web page seems to be adding new features.
On the left panel, at the bottom, click on "Admin 3".
You should see a list of US counties sorted by confirmed cases.
Death totals and recovered appear in the upper right panel.
Looks like they're working on it as I type as a few things have
changed in the last few minutes.

What bothers me is the RATE of increase in the US.
Go back to the list of countries in the left panel (click on Admin 1).
You should see the "confirmed" graph in the lower right.
Notice that the slope (rate of increase) in confirmed cases is steeper
for the US than for Italy, Spain, and Germany. That's a measure of
the effectiveness of our containment measures, compared to these other
countries. However, there's a problem with comparing the rate of
increase using these graphs. The vertical scale is different for each
country making visual comparisons potentially misleading.

--
Jeff Liebermann jeffl@cruzio.com
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

 

[Rick C]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 1:08:54 AM UTC-4, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 20:27:03 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:
Yes, the data is terrible. And the distribution of test kits is
changing dynamically.

This site is nice:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Click on a country on the left, then lower right "daily increase."
Interesting trends.

The web page seems to be adding new features.
On the left panel, at the bottom, click on "Admin 3".
You should see a list of US counties sorted by confirmed cases.
Death totals and recovered appear in the upper right panel.
Looks like they're working on it as I type as a few things have
changed in the last few minutes.

What bothers me is the RATE of increase in the US.
Go back to the list of countries in the left panel (click on Admin 1).
You should see the "confirmed" graph in the lower right.
Notice that the slope (rate of increase) in confirmed cases is steeper
for the US than for Italy, Spain, and Germany. That's a measure of
the effectiveness of our containment measures, compared to these other
countries. However, there's a problem with comparing the rate of
increase using these graphs. The vertical scale is different for each
country making visual comparisons potentially misleading.

Keep in mind that few countries have had the same testing issues we did early on. We claim to be up the testing curve which may be true compared to the UK and similar countries that also don't test unless you have symptoms and contact with an infected person or place. So the actual count of infected early on in the US is higher by a larger amount earlier on when we did less testing... I suppose. Who the hell knows?

This has been such a cluster fuck between Trump treating it like he could keep it out without a doubt but not testing enough people to know who it was being transmitted to and a lack of shut down orders pretty much everywhere, but especially in New York then on top of all that many people not taking it seriously enough on top of a shortage of testing kits to allow detection of infected individuals with the disease.

Too bad the border wall wasn't done in time. That certainly would have kept it out.

--

Rick C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Michael Terrell]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 9:31:38 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 8:17:44 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
The CDC publishes data on the new infections each day tracked by the day the person was originally infected. I didn't notice right away they provide this data each day in a one line table I can copy off to a spread sheet.. For some reason they didn't update this over the weekend.

See my earlier comment about how, if this Covid-19 thing was such a big deal, was it asking too much for the CDC to open on the weekends?

(The comment, in response to a notice on the CDC website that they would only update totals 4PM Mon-Fri). WTF?

They should be working around-the-clock on this one!!

Also, the Tampa Tribune (I think?) ran an article that Florida's reported numbers are borderline incomprehensible because cases come and go off the lists without comment, some re-appearing days later at new cases. And there's no consistency to the methodology either: One day the numbers are by total number of cases by type and outcome, the next it's reported geographically, or by onset of illness, etc.. No way to correlate.

Maybe it's fixed now (I doubt it).
But no matter since I ALWAYS take numbers I hear from the Internet and "big government" with high skepticism.

Have you seen this?

<https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/03/16/interactive-map-shows-florida-coronavirus-cases-in-real-time/>

 

[Winfield Hill]

Michael Terrell wrote...

Have you seen this?

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/03/16/interactive-map-shows-f=
lorida-coronavirus-cases-in-real-time/

Can you find a web site that properly shows
that map, preferably the origination site?
It is not readable at the news websites.


--
Thanks,
- Win

 

[Michael Terrell]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 5:08:45 AM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:

Michael Terrell wrote...


Have you seen this?

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/03/16/interactive-map-shows-f=
lorida-coronavirus-cases-in-real-time/

Can you find a web site that properly shows
that map, preferably the origination site?
It is not readable at the news websites.

It is customized for Florida. Contact the TV station to see if they will tell you their source. I had posted the link for MPM, since we are both in Florida.

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/

 

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 22:09:17 -0700, Jeff Liebermann <jeffl@cruzio.com>
wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 20:27:03 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:
Yes, the data is terrible. And the distribution of test kits is
changing dynamically.

This site is nice:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Click on a country on the left, then lower right "daily increase."
Interesting trends.

The web page seems to be adding new features.
On the left panel, at the bottom, click on "Admin 3".
You should see a list of US counties sorted by confirmed cases.
Death totals and recovered appear in the upper right panel.
Looks like they're working on it as I type as a few things have
changed in the last few minutes.

What bothers me is the RATE of increase in the US.
Go back to the list of countries in the left panel (click on Admin 1).
You should see the "confirmed" graph in the lower right.
Notice that the slope (rate of increase) in confirmed cases is steeper
for the US than for Italy, Spain, and Germany. That's a measure of
the effectiveness of our containment measures, compared to these other
countries. However, there's a problem with comparing the rate of
increase using these graphs. The vertical scale is different for each
country making visual comparisons potentially misleading.

The "daily increase" graph is apparently absolute number of new cases
detected each day. The "confirmed" is its integral.

Looking at a lot of countries dailies, one can almost see peaking.
Let's hope so.

I am reminded that, to make it into these statistics, C19 must be
confirmed by a test, and test kit production is still ramping up.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[mpm]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 8:04:58 AM UTC-4, Michael Terrell wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 5:08:45 AM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
Michael Terrell wrote...


Have you seen this?

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/03/16/interactive-map-shows-f=
lorida-coronavirus-cases-in-real-time/

Can you find a web site that properly shows
that map, preferably the origination site?
It is not readable at the news websites.

It is customized for Florida. Contact the TV station to see if they will tell you their source. I had posted the link for MPM, since we are both in Florida.

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/

Maybe here:
https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=8d0de33f260d444c852a615dc7837c86

 

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 09:23:36 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

The "daily increase" graph is apparently absolute number of new cases
detected each day. The "confirmed" is its integral.

Looking at a lot of countries dailies, one can almost see peaking.
Let's hope so.

Much of the peaking and subsequent drop in infection rate is caused by
the availability and subsequent non-availability of testing kits. The
only numbers I consider minimally reliable are the death count. As
more test kits become available, I would expect to see a drastic
increase in the slope of the graphs.

I am reminded that, to make it into these statistics, C19 must be
confirmed by a test, and test kit production is still ramping up.

There's a similar plague tracking site from the University of
Washington at:
<https://plague.com>
This URL previously pointed to the John Hopkins page.
Click on "Situational Heatmap" and then to "US Rank" or "Global Rank".
Click on the small graphs and the graph should appear in the left
panel.

Also see:
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries>
The table has a choice of "Now" and "Yesterday" which better show the
increases.

Idiocy and stupidity are not a government monopoly as demonstrated by
these people:
"Pastor again defies state order not to hold large gatherings. He says
1,000 people came to his church Sunday"
<https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/us/louisiana-pastor-spell-coronavirus/index.html>

I'm getting the feeling that China will soon be the only nation left
that is able to help anyone.


--
Jeff Liebermann jeffl@cruzio.com
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

 

[John Larkin]

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 12:48:20 -0700, Jeff Liebermann <jeffl@cruzio.com>
wrote:

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 09:23:36 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

The "daily increase" graph is apparently absolute number of new cases
detected each day. The "confirmed" is its integral.

Looking at a lot of countries dailies, one can almost see peaking.
Let's hope so.

Much of the peaking and subsequent drop in infection rate is caused by
the availability and subsequent non-availability of testing kits. The
only numbers I consider minimally reliable are the death count. As
more test kits become available, I would expect to see a drastic
increase in the slope of the graphs.

Many old people die every year from flu and such. Until test kits were
available for C9, none of the deaths could be attributed to C9.

Maybe we're graphing test kits. Of course we can expect more positive
tests when we deploy more test kits.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

[Rick C]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 12:23:46 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

The "daily increase" graph is apparently absolute number of new cases
detected each day. The "confirmed" is its integral.

Looking at a lot of countries dailies, one can almost see peaking.
Let's hope so.

I am reminded that, to make it into these statistics, C19 must be
confirmed by a test, and test kit production is still ramping up.

Wow! He sounds like maybe he is finally getting it.

--

Rick C.

-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 13:12:18 -0700, John Larkin
<jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 12:48:20 -0700, Jeff Liebermann <jeffl@cruzio.com
wrote:

On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 09:23:36 -0700, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com
wrote:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

The "daily increase" graph is apparently absolute number of new cases
detected each day. The "confirmed" is its integral.

Looking at a lot of countries dailies, one can almost see peaking.
Let's hope so.

Much of the peaking and subsequent drop in infection rate is caused by
the availability and subsequent non-availability of testing kits. The
only numbers I consider minimally reliable are the death count. As
more test kits become available, I would expect to see a drastic
increase in the slope of the graphs.

Many old people die every year from flu and such. Until test kits were
available for C9, none of the deaths could be attributed to C9.

Maybe we're graphing test kits. Of course we can expect more positive
tests when we deploy more test kits.

I don't think we're tracking test kits. Roughly 50-75% the people
tested test negative for the virus. Some numbers for test results:
<https://covidtracking.com>
Note that some states to NOT release negative test result.

"2.9 Percent of Minnesotans Tested for COVID-19 Have Tested Positive"
<https://theminnesotasun.com/2020/03/21/2-9-percent-of-minnesotans-tested-for-covid-19-have-tested-positive/>

"22 Percent of New York State Residents Tested for Coronavirus are
Positive, Ohio Refuses to Release Negative Test Data So No One Knows
Rate in State"
<https://tennesseestar.com/2020/03/21/22-percent-of-new-york-state-residents-tested-for-coronavirus-are-positive-ohio-refuses-to-release-negative-test-data-so-no-one-knows-rate-in-state/>

California currently shows that we're doing about 1,000 tests per day.
With a population of 40 million, everyone will be tested once within
110 years.
<https://covidtracking.com/data/state/california/>
Maybe it would be better if we setup a state lottery or auction to see
who gets tested first? With the FCC spectrum auctions and the state
lottery funded schools, it should be too difficult convince people
that this is the new definition of "fair and equitable".

Testing only those whom the doctors suspect might have the virus (and
celebrities), is not showing numbers indicative of a pandemic. I
would have expected much higher positive test results. I can conjure
plenty of possible explanations, but the one that worries me is that
the current tests or testing methods don't work as advertised.



--
Jeff Liebermann jeffl@cruzio.com
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558