Gov. Ron DeSantis falsely claims bivalent booster vaccine increases chances of COVID-19 infection...

F

Fred Bloggs

Guest
Useless hot air bag doesn\'t understand basic survey statistics, yet somehow thinks he should be president.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2023/jan/20/ron-desantis/gov-ron-desantis-falsely-claims-bivalent-booster-v/
 
On Thu, 26 Jan 2023 10:51:14 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
<bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

Useless hot air bag doesn\'t understand basic survey statistics, yet somehow thinks he should be president.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2023/jan/20/ron-desantis/gov-ron-desantis-falsely-claims-bivalent-booster-v/

https://justthenews.com/sites/default/files/2022-12/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full_.pdf


\"This is not the only study to find a possible association with more
prior vaccine doses and higher risk of COVID-19.\"

See fig 2.

There is reasonable cause to suspect that, at least in some age
groups, the vaccines are not effective and possibly net harmful. \"The
Science\" is not settled.


https://justthenews.com/world/europe/brits-yank-back-covid-vaccination-program-us-plunges-forward-one-size-fits-all
 
On Friday, January 27, 2023 at 11:52:56 AM UTC-5, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 26 Jan 2023 10:51:14 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

Useless hot air bag doesn\'t understand basic survey statistics, yet somehow thinks he should be president.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2023/jan/20/ron-desantis/gov-ron-desantis-falsely-claims-bivalent-booster-v/
https://justthenews.com/sites/default/files/2022-12/2022.12.17.22283625v1..full_.pdf


\"This is not the only study to find a possible association with more
prior vaccine doses and higher risk of COVID-19.\"

See fig 2.

Didn\'t the original link just get through explaining to you the study design was not appropriate for uncovering increased risk of infection of vaccinated versus unvaccinated? For something like that they can only go retrospective as the medical ethics prevents them from asking people to volunteer to stay unvaccinated.

There is reasonable cause to suspect that, at least in some age
groups, the vaccines are not effective and possibly net harmful. \"The
Science\" is not settled.

There was a previous link to an MD on the FDA vaccine advisory panel who, along with a bunch of other clinicians, believes the problem with the bivalent vaccine is that it\'s two half doses, resulting in weak antibody responses to both antigens. The vaccination series needs to be changed to a two injection sequence of full dosage vaccination, or better, just one full dose of the Omicron antigen.

Of course the older people are going to be affected first because their immune response is so weak to begin with.


https://justthenews.com/world/europe/brits-yank-back-covid-vaccination-program-us-plunges-forward-one-size-fits-all
 
On Fri, 27 Jan 2023 09:36:11 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
<bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

On Friday, January 27, 2023 at 11:52:56 AM UTC-5, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 26 Jan 2023 10:51:14 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

Useless hot air bag doesn\'t understand basic survey statistics, yet somehow thinks he should be president.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2023/jan/20/ron-desantis/gov-ron-desantis-falsely-claims-bivalent-booster-v/
https://justthenews.com/sites/default/files/2022-12/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full_.pdf


\"This is not the only study to find a possible association with more
prior vaccine doses and higher risk of COVID-19.\"

See fig 2.

Didn\'t the original link just get through explaining to you the study design was not appropriate for uncovering increased risk of infection of vaccinated versus unvaccinated? For something like that they can only go retrospective as the medical ethics prevents them from asking people to volunteer to stay unvaccinated.


There is reasonable cause to suspect that, at least in some age
groups, the vaccines are not effective and possibly net harmful. \"The
Science\" is not settled.

There was a previous link to an MD on the FDA vaccine advisory panel who, along with a bunch of other clinicians, believes the problem with the bivalent vaccine is that it\'s two half doses, resulting in weak antibody responses to both antigens. The vaccination series needs to be changed to a two injection sequence of full dosage vaccination, or better, just one full dose of the Omicron antigen.

Of course the older people are going to be affected first because their immune response is so weak to begin with.




https://justthenews.com/world/europe/brits-yank-back-covid-vaccination-program-us-plunges-forward-one-size-fits-all

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/11/health/moderna-bivalent-transparency/index.html

There are at least six things going on here:

Measuring antibodies is not measuring infections or deaths

The virus keeps mutating, dancing around vaccines

Kids probably don\'t need vaccinating. Some countries don\'t do it.

Vaccines may harm certain age groups

The Science is anything but settled

The Science is greatly influenced by money, politics, tribalism, and
more money
 
On Friday, January 27, 2023 at 12:47:50 PM UTC-5, John Larkin wrote:
On Fri, 27 Jan 2023 09:36:11 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

On Friday, January 27, 2023 at 11:52:56 AM UTC-5, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 26 Jan 2023 10:51:14 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

Useless hot air bag doesn\'t understand basic survey statistics, yet somehow thinks he should be president.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2023/jan/20/ron-desantis/gov-ron-desantis-falsely-claims-bivalent-booster-v/
https://justthenews.com/sites/default/files/2022-12/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full_.pdf


\"This is not the only study to find a possible association with more
prior vaccine doses and higher risk of COVID-19.\"

See fig 2.

Didn\'t the original link just get through explaining to you the study design was not appropriate for uncovering increased risk of infection of vaccinated versus unvaccinated? For something like that they can only go retrospective as the medical ethics prevents them from asking people to volunteer to stay unvaccinated.


There is reasonable cause to suspect that, at least in some age
groups, the vaccines are not effective and possibly net harmful. \"The
Science\" is not settled.

There was a previous link to an MD on the FDA vaccine advisory panel who, along with a bunch of other clinicians, believes the problem with the bivalent vaccine is that it\'s two half doses, resulting in weak antibody responses to both antigens. The vaccination series needs to be changed to a two injection sequence of full dosage vaccination, or better, just one full dose of the Omicron antigen.

Of course the older people are going to be affected first because their immune response is so weak to begin with.




https://justthenews.com/world/europe/brits-yank-back-covid-vaccination-program-us-plunges-forward-one-size-fits-all
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/11/health/moderna-bivalent-transparency/index..html

There are at least six things going on here:

Measuring antibodies is not measuring infections or deaths

The virus keeps mutating, dancing around vaccines

Kids probably don\'t need vaccinating. Some countries don\'t do it.

Vaccines may harm certain age groups

The Science is anything but settled

The Science is greatly influenced by money, politics, tribalism, and
more money

I previously linked a research article establishing antibody titers as coefficient of performance (CoP) for the effectiveness of vaccine immunity in preventing serious disease. That\'s why it was adopted very early on in the pandemic by everyone who needed it, like the pharmaceuticals, the FDA, CDC, WHO etc.
 
On Friday, January 27, 2023 at 8:52:56 AM UTC-8, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 26 Jan 2023 10:51:14 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

Useless hot air bag doesn\'t understand basic survey statistics, yet somehow thinks he should be president.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2023/jan/20/ron-desantis/gov-ron-desantis-falsely-claims-bivalent-booster-v/
https://justthenews.com/sites/default/files/2022-12/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full_.pdf


\"This is not the only study to find a possible association with more
prior vaccine doses and higher risk of COVID-19.\"

That\'s bafflegab. Is there a statistical measure mentioned?

> See fig 2.

That\'s not showing anything very significant (the error bars aren\'t very separate)
and has, for some reason, decided that a timeline is called for; only the right edge
represents current information, all the rest is just older and worse data.
There\'s no sign of control for populations that have extra exposure so do a prudent
thing, getting more boosters, nor for populations that live in sparse areas,
where getting a booster, or being at risk for passing the disease, are both rare events.


There is reasonable cause to suspect that, at least in some age
groups, the vaccines are not effective and possibly net harmful. \"The
Science\" is not settled.

So, another \'we need more research\'? That\'s weak. The whole analysis shows signs of
having been created with intention of this weak claim, having study decisions that
amount to poor data control. The claim of \'reasonable cause\' is a lie, the population
selection issues being unresolved.
 
On 27/01/2023 16:52, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 26 Jan 2023 10:51:14 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

Useless hot air bag doesn\'t understand basic survey statistics, yet somehow thinks he should be president.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2023/jan/20/ron-desantis/gov-ron-desantis-falsely-claims-bivalent-booster-v/


https://justthenews.com/sites/default/files/2022-12/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full_.pdf

\"This is not the only study to find a possible association with more
prior vaccine doses and higher risk of COVID-19.\"

Correlation does not prove causation!

There is a good reason why the most vulnerable have been given more
vaccine doses than the rest of us. They are also much more likely to be
seriously ill if they do catch Covid and the vaccine can\'t entirely
prevent that with Omicron.

See fig 2.

There is reasonable cause to suspect that, at least in some age
groups, the vaccines are not effective and possibly net harmful. \"The
Science\" is not settled.


https://justthenews.com/world/europe/brits-yank-back-covid-vaccination-program-us-plunges-forward-one-size-fits-all

What it actually shows is that the people who are most at risk of dying
of Covid have typically had 1 or even 2 more boosters than normal people
of the same age. The virus is always going to be a big problem for
people who are immunosuppressed or otherwise compromised.

Even with the vaccine some people can still be unlucky. It has taken a
friend who got Omicron for Xmas until now to be back on their feet. They
spent a while hospitalised with pneumonia as a side effect of Covid - it
appeared to develop very fast - just as they seemed to be recovering.

UK strategy seems quite reasonable to me. I was never convinced that
vaccinating the under 12\'s was reasonable. The risk to them from the
vaccine is worse than the risk from catching Covid and gets worse the
younger they are (and the dose calculation gets more tricky too).

--
Martin Brown
 
On Saturday, January 28, 2023 at 10:47:08 PM UTC+11, Martin Brown wrote:
On 27/01/2023 16:52, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 26 Jan 2023 10:51:14 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

<snip>

UK strategy seems quite reasonable to me. I was never convinced that
vaccinating the under 12\'s was reasonable. The risk to them from the
vaccine is worse than the risk from catching Covid and gets worse the
younger they are (and the dose calculation gets more tricky too).

You aren\'t vaccinating the under-12s to stop them getting Covid on the basis of the risk to them. You are vaccinating them to make it less likely that they will catch the disease and pass it on to older people.

If you could reduce the chance of passing on the infection far enough, the disease would stop being epidemic, and die out, as small pox has.

Getting enough people vaccinated does seem to be in the too-hard basket.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
On 1/28/2023 4:46 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
> Correlation does not prove causation!

Exactly. But too many people fail to understand that!

I recall, as a kid, hearing the \"old timers\" commmenting on folks
Dxed with cancer. At the time, the only rememdy was surgical
excision.

When <someone> died from it, they would comment \"Once the air
gets to it (surgery opening the body cavity allowing \'air\' to
get to the cancer), it\'s over!\"

WTF? Even as a child this made no sense (and, everyone
knows you have to open the body in order to administer the
BLEACH! <rolls-eyes>)

They died because the cancer had progressed to the point that
surgery was required. Which increased the likelihood of a
\"bad outcome\".

The ability of humans to see patterns where none exist is
mind-numbing! Talk to a gambler at a casino and they will
tell you (in hushed words) of their *secrets* for success
at the tables/slots. (Hmmm... and why are they frowning if they
have such effective \"secrets\"?)

There is a good reason why the most vulnerable have been given more vaccine
doses than the rest of us. They are also much more likely to be seriously ill
if they do catch Covid and the vaccine can\'t entirely prevent that with Omicron.

\"I\'ve been taking these little yellow pills for years, now, and
I\'ve not been attacked by a bear, once! They must be working!!\"

What it actually shows is that the people who are most at risk of dying of
Covid have typically had 1 or even 2 more boosters than normal people of the
same age. The virus is always going to be a big problem for people who are
immunosuppressed or otherwise compromised.

Even with the vaccine some people can still be unlucky. It has taken a friend
who got Omicron for Xmas until now to be back on their feet. They spent a while
hospitalised with pneumonia as a side effect of Covid - it appeared to develop
very fast - just as they seemed to be recovering.

I have a friend in a similar predicament -- 5 weeks.

Another is dealing with his *third* infection. (He is of the
belief that the vaccine gives him a get-out-of-jail-free card
to conduct his life with total disregard for the virus. He\'s
been lucky in that each infection has been relatively mild
but took him out of circulation, regardless. He\'s ~75)

UK strategy seems quite reasonable to me. I was never convinced that
vaccinating the under 12\'s was reasonable. The risk to them from the vaccine is
worse than the risk from catching Covid and gets worse the younger they are
(and the dose calculation gets more tricky too).

I think the push, there, was to minimize the young ones as vectors
to bring the disease home to their families. Consider that they
1) tend to be in close proximity to other children for long
stretches, DAILY and 2) can easily \"forget\" to worry about hygiene
and distancing when caught up in interactions with their peers.

Add to that the fact that they may be asymptomatic and you\'ve
got a clandestine way for the virus to evade a family\'s
\"outer defenses\" (\"We\'re home, now, so we don\'t have to
take precautions in the house...\")
 
On 28/01/2023 13:52, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
On Saturday, January 28, 2023 at 10:47:08 PM UTC+11, Martin Brown
wrote:
On 27/01/2023 16:52, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 26 Jan 2023 10:51:14 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

snip

UK strategy seems quite reasonable to me. I was never convinced
that vaccinating the under 12\'s was reasonable. The risk to them
from the vaccine is worse than the risk from catching Covid and
gets worse the younger they are (and the dose calculation gets more
tricky too).

You aren\'t vaccinating the under-12s to stop them getting Covid on
the basis of the risk to them. You are vaccinating them to make it
less likely that they will catch the disease and pass it on to older
people.

But that isn\'t ethical if it increases the risk of killing *THEM*.

If you could reduce the chance of passing on the infection far
enough, the disease would stop being epidemic, and die out, as small
pox has.

You stand a chance against a nice stable DNA based virus but there is
literally no chance against an RNA virus like Covid-19. We got lucky
with smallpox - it is the only example where we have managed to do it.

Our immune system pretty much gives up making antibodies against Covid
within a few months and you can be reinfected by the same strain again
and again. The newer strains have managed to infect people as little as
3 weeks after they had recovered from a previous bout of Covid.

Getting enough people vaccinated does seem to be in the too-hard
basket.

It is well beyond the too hard basket. The rate at which the vaccination
acquired immunity declines for catching it you would have to do the
entire global population every 4 months to even stand a chance.

Best estimates are that the disease has now become endemic and in the UK
at least. There is an oscillatory phase of preditor prey behaviour now
with gradually decreasing amplitude and period sat on a fairly high
baseline. It remains to be seen if it will back off this summer.

Hospital admissions with Covid are harder to fake so that is about the
best metric we have (home tests are chargeable now so no-one bothers).

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England

For the first two years the summer was enough to drop it back to very
low levels but it became much more infective in July 2021 and has been
stuck at a comparatively high level ever since. Omicron evolved toward
Xmas of that year and has been driving the oscillations.

It is qualitatively different now to how it behaved in the early phase.


--
Martin Brown
 
On 1/29/2023 10:14 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
On 28/01/2023 13:52, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
On Saturday, January 28, 2023 at 10:47:08 PM UTC+11, Martin Brown
wrote:
On 27/01/2023 16:52, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 26 Jan 2023 10:51:14 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

snip

UK strategy seems quite reasonable to me. I was never convinced
that vaccinating the under 12\'s was reasonable. The risk to them
from the vaccine is worse than the risk from catching Covid and
gets worse the younger they are (and the dose calculation gets more
tricky too).

You aren\'t vaccinating the under-12s to stop them getting Covid on
the basis of the risk to them. You are vaccinating them to make it
less likely that they will catch the disease and pass it on to older
people.

But that isn\'t ethical if it increases the risk of killing *THEM*.

Do you make that decision independent other risk factors? I.e.,
the risk of death or disability from NOT having it?

Would it be ethical to isolate them from the at-risk populations
(which may include their family members) for the duration of the
risk exposure? What cost do you assign to that?

If you could reduce the chance of passing on the infection far
enough, the disease would stop being epidemic, and die out, as small
pox has.

You stand a chance against a nice stable DNA based virus but there is literally
no chance against an RNA virus like Covid-19. We got lucky with smallpox - it
is the only example where we have managed to do it.

Our immune system pretty much gives up making antibodies against Covid within a
few months and you can be reinfected by the same strain again and again. The
newer strains have managed to infect people as little as 3 weeks after they had
recovered from a previous bout of Covid.

But there are other measures that can be employed. De Santis is an
anti-masker. In the name of personal liberty, he is more than happy
to let his constituents die.

I wonder how much he\'d stand for personal freedoms if his neighbor
opted to leave his yard well lit when an enemy\'s aircraft were flying
overhead on a bombing run? How did Britain treat folks who failed
to deploy blackout curtains?

Getting enough people vaccinated does seem to be in the too-hard
basket.

It is well beyond the too hard basket. The rate at which the vaccination
acquired immunity declines for catching it you would have to do the entire
global population every 4 months to even stand a chance.

Again, that assumes there are no other measures being employed.

Best estimates are that the disease has now become endemic and in the UK at
least. There is an oscillatory phase of preditor prey behaviour now with
gradually decreasing amplitude and period sat on a fairly high baseline. It
remains to be seen if it will back off this summer.

Hospital admissions with Covid are harder to fake so that is about the best
metric we have (home tests are chargeable now so no-one bothers).

Home tests, here, don\'t require reporting. And, as you don\'t need
some \"agency\" to process the test to give you your results, there\'s
no way to eavesdrop on the process.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England

For the first two years the summer was enough to drop it back to very low
levels but it became much more infective in July 2021 and has been stuck at a
comparatively high level ever since. Omicron evolved toward Xmas of that year
and has been driving the oscillations.

It is qualitatively different now to how it behaved in the early phase.

Here, folks have largely \"moved on\". You don\'t see much masking, no
police officers standing by businesses to handle \"conflicts\" over
masking requirements, no nightly news coverage, etc.

\"Covid is over\" -- or so says our fearless leader...
 

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