COVID-19 Found in WV...

[Rick C]

Yeah, like it hasn't been there all this time. We just haven't been approving the tests if there was no record of contact with someone who has been shown to have the disease.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/health/west-virginia-no-confirmed-coronavirus/index.html

The US says they have some 6,400 cases as of 3/17. It is more likely to be over 100,000 at the moment. We won't know for some time to come once the testing catches up with this disease.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[mpm]

On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 12:05:28 AM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

Some "expert" (I forget who), posited that for every DEATH, there might be as many 100 asymptomatic infections.

If that's true, it does seems that the cat is out of the bag - and may have been for a little longer than we are being led to believe. (?)

 

mpm <mpmillard@aol.com> wrote in
news:72d9df66-0d38-4d9b-b12c-87645d05c6c5@googlegroups.com:

On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 12:05:28 AM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

Some "expert" (I forget who), posited that for every DEATH, there
might be as many 100 asymptomatic infections.

If that's true, it does seems that the cat is out of the bag - and
may have been for a little longer than we are being led to
believe. (?)

Sheesh. Go look at the map.

<https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html>

 

[David Brown]

On 18/03/2020 12:57, mpm wrote:

On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 12:05:28 AM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

Some "expert" (I forget who), posited that for every DEATH, there
might be as many 100 asymptomatic infections.

Based on the link in the "Why You Must Act Now" thread, 800 infections
per death is a more realistic number for a country not taking much in
the way of precautions. As people take more precautions (better hygiene
and hand washing, more separation, and avoiding groups), the infection
rate will drop and so will this number. It will also be lower in
countries where the health service is poor or overwhelmed, and thus the
fatality rate is higher.

So for the USA, where your intensive care services are not yet
overwhelmed (you have good care at the highest levels - it is everything
up to that which is abysmal in the USA), and where lockdowns only
started recently, the figure will be closer to 800 than 100 (but
dropping, as the lockdowns slow the spread).

If that's true, it does seems that the cat is out of the bag - and
may have been for a little longer than we are being led to believe.
(?)

Well, yes - any serious estimate of the number of infections in the USA
will be /hugely/ higher than the known case count. (Most of these
infections will have only minor symptoms, if any, but can still spread
it to others.) This is a combination of your utterly incompetent
president, your evil heath system, your heartless welfare system, your
arrogant and xenophobic health authorities that thought they could make
a better test than any other country, and your ingrained obsession with
rejecting any information or demands from authorities.

I think an interesting comparison is to look at the death / cases ratios:

<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/>


Some countries (like Italy) have had their ICU units overwhelmed, and
some (like Iran) have had very limited capabilities in the first place,
so these have high death rates. But for other countries, a high
death-to-case ratio means the country either has successfully limited
the spread (such as in China), or is failing to spot the cases that are
not critical.

Norway and Denmark each have 4 dead, and have had tough lockdowns for
nearly a week. An infection-to-death ratio of about 400 or 500 might be
a reasonable estimate there - giving an estimate of about 1600 - 2000
cases. That's not far off the known case counts, so these countries
have quite a realistic view of the virus, and are testing well. (Norway
has tested about ten times as many people as there are known cases.) In
the USA, you'd guess at least ten times as many people are infected as
have tested positive. The USA is not the only country in a bad shape
here - the UK is in trouble too.

Not only is the cat out of the bag, but it has had kittens and they've
never been close to the bag.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 10:57:14 PM UTC+11, mpm wrote:

On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 12:05:28 AM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

Some "expert" (I forget who), posited that for every DEATH, there might be as many 100 asymptomatic infections.

If that's true, it does seems that the cat is out of the bag - and may have been for a little longer than we are being led to believe. (?)

Why do you think that? Infering asymptomatic infections from deaths is decidedly indirect - the chance that a given infectee will die depends a lot on how old they are and what other health problems they've got.

Simple confirmed infections are an earlier and more direct indication of how many other people are infected, but - for the same reason - don't lend themselves as well to fatuous speculations.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 9:17:46 AM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:

On 18/03/2020 12:57, mpm wrote:
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 12:05:28 AM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

Some "expert" (I forget who), posited that for every DEATH, there
might be as many 100 asymptomatic infections.


Based on the link in the "Why You Must Act Now" thread, 800 infections
per death is a more realistic number for a country not taking much in
the way of precautions. As people take more precautions (better hygiene
and hand washing, more separation, and avoiding groups), the infection
rate will drop and so will this number. It will also be lower in
countries where the health service is poor or overwhelmed, and thus the
fatality rate is higher.

So for the USA, where your intensive care services are not yet
overwhelmed (you have good care at the highest levels - it is everything
up to that which is abysmal in the USA), and where lockdowns only
started recently, the figure will be closer to 800 than 100 (but
dropping, as the lockdowns slow the spread).

If that's true, it does seems that the cat is out of the bag - and
may have been for a little longer than we are being led to believe.
(?)


Well, yes - any serious estimate of the number of infections in the USA
will be /hugely/ higher than the known case count. (Most of these
infections will have only minor symptoms, if any, but can still spread
it to others.) This is a combination of your utterly incompetent
president, your evil heath system, your heartless welfare system, your
arrogant and xenophobic health authorities that thought they could make
a better test than any other country,

Last night I spent a few hours reviewing the sequence of events mostly
via the BBC web archives, and found that despite your premises, the
United States was first(?) to act to warn, then restrict travel from
infected areas, despite being urged by world authorities not to;
and our infection rate is consequently dramatically less than -- and
lagging time-wise -- nearly all of Europe. As of this writing, the
U.K.'s infection rate is 39ppm, versus 22ppm in the USA.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I also found that we offered China expert help early on, which they
refused; that the Chinese government was fully aware they had a
communicable epidemic as of November, 2019, but that they actively
internally and externally suppressed the information; and that the
Chinese communist government continued to insist otherwise as late
as January. Indeed, China acted to deflect blame rather than acting to
protect the world from their epidemic -- they ejected U.S. journalists
to prevent them reporting, and pressured U.S. companies to change their
nomenclature from Wuhan virus to COVID-19.

Meanwhile, from November to Trump's travel ban at the beginning of
February, China was knowingly exporting 10,000 potential carriers
on direct flights to the U.S. daily, especially to the West Coast.

At the time the travel ban was announced, there were only five cases
in the entire United States.

I found disproofs of a number of irrelevant conspiracy theories too,
such as the internet legend that the Trump administration had in any
way dismantled America's pandemic capabilities.

and your ingrained obsession with

rejecting any information or demands from authorities.

I think an interesting comparison is to look at the death / cases ratios:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Some countries (like Italy) have had their ICU units overwhelmed, and
some (like Iran) have had very limited capabilities in the first place,
so these have high death rates. But for other countries, a high
death-to-case ratio means the country either has successfully limited
the spread (such as in China), or is failing to spot the cases that are
not critical.

Norway and Denmark each have 4 dead, and have had tough lockdowns for
nearly a week. An infection-to-death ratio of about 400 or 500 might be
a reasonable estimate there - giving an estimate of about 1600 - 2000
cases. That's not far off the known case counts, so these countries
have quite a realistic view of the virus, and are testing well. (Norway
has tested about ten times as many people as there are known cases.) In
the USA, you'd guess at least ten times as many people are infected as
have tested positive. The USA is not the only country in a bad shape
here - the UK is in trouble too.

Not only is the cat out of the bag, but it has had kittens and they've
never been close to the bag.

It's certainly spreading, that's for sure. Whether it ultimately
takes anything close to the world-wide seasonal flu's annual toll,
only time will tell.

Cheers,
James Arthur

 

[mpm]

On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 8:45:23 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

First, I didn't opine one way or the other whether I thought the death:infection ratio might be true. That's an assumption you are making on my behalf.

But I think the ratio comparison was implicitly indirect, for the very reason that enough testing data isn't (or wasn't) available. It was just an "educated guess" in the absence of better facts.

Perhaps the difference (if a meaningful one even exists) is that it might be easier to confirm a death, than an infection. If for no other reason, an infection can take active measures to hide from authorities. A little more difficult for a corpse.

 

[Tom Del Rosso]

dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:

On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 9:17:46 AM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:

your arrogant and xenophobic health authorities that

Last night I spent a few hours reviewing the sequence of events mostly
via the BBC web archives, and found that despite your premises, the
United States was first(?) to act to warn, then restrict travel from
infected areas, despite being urged by world authorities not to;

Indeed the left accused Trump of xenophobia when he issued the travel
ban.

At the time the travel ban was announced, there were only five cases
in the entire United States.

I found disproofs of a number of irrelevant conspiracy theories too,
such as the internet legend that the Trump administration had in any
way dismantled America's pandemic capabilities.

They live in a different universe where the realities of our universe
have no influence.

 

[Rick C]

On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 8:17:45 PM UTC-4, John Doe wrote:

The "testing shortage" thing is utter BS.
Anybody who is very ill and goes to the hospital gets tested.
That's where the statistics come from.

You mean like entire NBA teams? The problem is not that sick people can't be tested. We know they are sick and need to be quarantined without testing them. The problem is the people they've been around. If they aren't tested they don't know if they are infected and it seems a lot of people don't take this disease seriously and so don't worry about it until they are sick and have infected others.

Do you really think there have been no infections in WV until yesterday??? They just haven't been allowed to test anyone who they can't show had exposure to an infected person even if they had symptoms. Even the Chinese changed their rules at some point.


> Testing won't tell you who around you is infected.

That's exactly what it can do.

Testing won't stop you from getting infected.

Testing won't increase your IQ to an acceptable level.

Not testing won't increase your IQ to an acceptable level.

You must take precautions to avoid becoming infected
or infecting others, testing or not.

Yes, but measures are not perfect unless you want to live like a monk and have everything you need at home already. Even then sooner or later you will need to come out and get food, etc. Then you can be infected.

People now still do not take this seriously. People partied on St Patrick's day and are still going out into public to restaurants, etc. It was just a few days ago a prominent politician Tweeted about taking his family out to eat.

Yeah, even if it's just to find out who the idiots are, we need widespread testing. We need information to show us if we are actually doing any good and what works/doesn't work.

--

Rick C.

+ Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[John Doe]

The "testing shortage" thing is utter BS.
Anybody who is very ill and goes to the hospital gets tested.
That's where the statistics come from.

Testing won't tell you who around you is infected.

Testing won't stop you from getting infected.

Testing won't increase your IQ to an acceptable level.

You must take precautions to avoid becoming infected
or infecting others, testing or not.


--
Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit gmail.com> wrote:

X-Received: by 2002:a37:9347:: with SMTP id v68mr2171796qkd.337.1584504323956; Tue, 17 Mar 2020 21:05:23 -0700 (PDT)
X-Received: by 2002:a05:620a:1eb:: with SMTP id x11mr2104979qkn.135.1584504323829; Tue, 17 Mar 2020 21:05:23 -0700 (PDT)
Path: eternal-september.org!reader01.eternal-september.org!feeder.eternal-september.org!news.gegeweb.eu!gegeweb.org!usenet-fr.net!proxad.net!feeder1-2.proxad.net!209.85.160.216.MISMATCH!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail
Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design
Date: Tue, 17 Mar 2020 21:05:23 -0700 (PDT)
Complaints-To: groups-abuse google.com
Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=70.33.172.5; posting-account=I-_H_woAAAA9zzro6crtEpUAyIvzd19b
NNTP-Posting-Host: 70.33.172.5
User-Agent: G2/1.0
MIME-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <ac05ea93-9e8f-4877-a08d-d3af688d5025 googlegroups.com
Subject: COVID-19 Found in WV...
From: Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit gmail.com
Injection-Date: Wed, 18 Mar 2020 04:05:23 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Xref: reader01.eternal-september.org sci.electronics.design:585125

Yeah, like it hasn't been there all this time. We just haven't been approving the tests if there was no record of contact with someone who has been shown to have the disease.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/health/west-virginia-no-confirmed-coronavirus/index.html

The US says they have some 6,400 cases as of 3/17. It is more likely to be over 100,000 at the moment. We won't know for some time to come once the testing catches up with this disease.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

"Tom Del Rosso" <fizzbintuesday@that-google-mail-domain.com> wrote
in news:r4uagh$drh$1@dont-email.me:

dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 9:17:46 AM UTC-4, David Brown
wrote:

your arrogant and xenophobic health authorities that

Last night I spent a few hours reviewing the sequence of events
mostly via the BBC web archives, and found that despite your
premises, the United States was first(?) to act to warn, then
restrict travel from infected areas, despite being urged by world
authorities not to;


Indeed the left accused Trump of xenophobia when he issued the
travel ban.



At the time the travel ban was announced, there were only five
cases in the entire United States.

I found disproofs of a number of irrelevant conspiracy theories
too, such as the internet legend that the Trump administration
had in any way dismantled America's pandemic capabilities.


They live in a different universe where the realities of our
universe have no influence.

Reality? Trump spent his entire administration shutting things down
to move those cash coffers in the direction of his precious wall
effort.

THEN, he spent a bit of time extorting the enactment of a smear
campaign from a foriegn power in the form of witholding already
approved, on the tarmac waiting arms assistance for said power, and
subsequently lives were lost due to his childish illicit pursuits.

Then... (actually prior to the previous)...

One of the things he shut down AND shuttered were the offices the
news has reported on.

Whether he "dealt with" this "early" or not (which in my book goes
down as the only time he ever took an advisor's advice on), our
nation has taken a hit because these office no longer exist, and he
besmirched individuals which were in them performing their patriotic,
oath sworn duty. And his little crew he assembled for this is
patchwork.

Oh Look! It is a Ross Perot styled set of placards!

ARE YOU KIDDING ME? Let's waste some more time!

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, March 19, 2020 at 3:32:11 AM UTC+11, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 9:17:46 AM UTC-4, David Brown wrote:
On 18/03/2020 12:57, mpm wrote:
On Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 12:05:28 AM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

<snip>

I found disproofs of a number of irrelevant conspiracy theories too,
such as the internet legend that the Trump administration had in any
way dismantled America's pandemic capabilities.

Fact-checker does point out that while Trump repeatedly tried to cut funding for the Centre for Disease Control, Congress didn't let him do it.

There's more of problem in the Trump administration - there has been a lot of staff turnover, and Trump wasn't picking intellectually distinguished independent thinkers when he started out, and has parted company with any number of people who showed any tendency to disagree with his silly ideas since then.

<snip>

It's certainly spreading, that's for sure. Whether it ultimately
takes anything close to the world-wide seasonal flu's annual toll,
only time will tell.

If it gets the chance to spread as extensively as the Spanish flu did, it's likely to kill more people - the Spanish flu was close enough to existing flu strains that older people were immune to it.

It does seem to be possible to keep it contained until were have developed an effective vaccine, but Italy, Iran, the UK and the USA don't seem to have got transmission under control yet, which isn't exactly grounds for optimism.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney