Cost of the grid compared to solar

Jul 16, 2003

I'm curious- at past and present prices of grid electricity how is
solar more costly? The equipment for solar runs anywhere from 10 to 25
grand over 20 years (shit- try to run a gas generator continously for
20 years and see what that costs!!) which is how long the equipment
will last and most states provide a break on equipment anyway which
makes it even cheaper and you can sell power back too yet even though
the rate of grid electricity is doubling every so often and it looks
like the total cost for grid electricity will cost anywhere from 2
times to 3 times the cost of the solar equipment over the next 20
years there is all this hype the solar is soooo expensive. No shit---
you ARE buying equipment for power prodution you stupid fucks!!! What
do you think??? You stupid assholes should be given the equipment for
free???? So what is it? Just more power corporation hype and lies and
every sucker on earth repeating the lie to be part of the crowd or
just complete idiocy by people in that they are simply too stupid to
add? Christ!! Is it sooo hard just to estimate what a person pays in
electricity? Personally I think its both plus dopeheads like Andew
Langggeeerr repeating what morons say verbatim. Have a great
one--jughaiiiids!!!

moose

Sir Charles W. Shults III · Jul 16, 2003

And I suppose that you are going to plunk out 10 to 25 thousands dollars to
install this stuff? Or even finance it- what would your payments be, and how
much would you end up with in interest? Pretty clearly you are some sort of
idealist who has not done the math on this. Try paying $25,000 while paying for
a house, supporting a family and a couple of vehicles, etc.
Let's look at it like a mortgage calculation. Let's say you get the system
installed for $20,000, a real deal. Let's also assume you get a really good
interest rate, like 7%. Hey, it might happen, right? And let's also assume
that you take out a 20 year loan to do it.
You will end up with a monthly payment of $155.06, not counting the loan
insurance and other fees. Sounds reasonable at first glance. Also, you end up
(with interest) paying this 240 times, or a total of $37,214.40 on that $20,000.
Now, while you may sell some power back to the grid, you will be drawing power
(just like before) from the grid all night long, also on rainy days, also on
foggy or overcast days, etc.
In other words, even if you get that 7% loan, you will STILL have an
electric bill, and you also now have to pay this $155.06 every month like
clockwork. And at the end of the 20 years, you have to do it all over again.
Er, assuming that you still live there. Oops!
Okay, now let's look at this with a more realistic interest rate- 10%. Now
your payment jumps to $193 per month, and you end up paying a whopping
$46,321.02 for your solar electric system. You have now just become an official
sucker, paying more that twice what you borrowed to "save" money on a solar
electric system that will be worthless when the last dollar bill goes to pay
your tab in 20 years.
And, the same rules still apply- you still have to pay them anyway for
night, overcast, or rainy days. Sure, you can sell some power back on the best,
hottest direct sunlight days, but if you live in an area where the sunlight will
be plentiful enough to do that, you will be using it for air conditioning
anyway! Duh!
I live in Orlando, Florida and have a 2,000 square foot home, pretty typical
here. In the spring and fall, my electric bill in only about $110 or so. On
the hottest summer month, I spend about $240 for electric power, and in the
coldest winter situation, my bill is usually about $170 or so to warm the place.
On average, I spend about $150 to $160 a month. So, how, exactly, is this
supposed to save me money?
I don't have to take out a loan, worry about whether a hailstorm is going to
wreck my collectors, have a large outstanding debt on my credit record, pay lots
of interest, etc. I don't have to worry about deciding to pack up and move
somewhere and fret about whether I can recoup my costs, or if the new owner will
be happy to pay for my fancy solar collector. For about $160 a month, I am
scot-free.
Tax incentives or not, unless it comes WAY down and can be done in small
increments realistically, it's just not going to happen.

Cheers!

Chip Shults
My robotics, space and CGI web page - http://home.cfl.rr.com/aichip

Watson A.Name - 'Watt Sun · Jul 16, 2003

In article <Oq5Ra.27588$k85.1103344@twister.tampabay.rr.com>,
aichipREM@OVEcfl.THISrr.com mentioned...

And I suppose that you are going to plunk out 10 to 25 thousands dollars to
install this stuff? Or even finance it- what would your payments be, and how
much would you end up with in interest? Pretty clearly you are some sort of
idealist who has not done the math on this. Try paying $25,000 while paying for
a house, supporting a family and a couple of vehicles, etc.
Let's look at it like a mortgage calculation. Let's say you get the system
installed for $20,000, a real deal. Let's also assume you get a really good
interest rate, like 7%. Hey, it might happen, right? And let's also assume
that you take out a 20 year loan to do it.
You will end up with a monthly payment of $155.06, not counting the loan
insurance and other fees. Sounds reasonable at first glance. Also, you end up
(with interest) paying this 240 times, or a total of $37,214.40 on that $20,000.
Now, while you may sell some power back to the grid, you will be drawing power
(just like before) from the grid all night long, also on rainy days, also on
foggy or overcast days, etc.
In other words, even if you get that 7% loan, you will STILL have an
electric bill, and you also now have to pay this $155.06 every month like
clockwork. And at the end of the 20 years, you have to do it all over again.
Er, assuming that you still live there. Oops!
Okay, now let's look at this with a more realistic interest rate- 10%. Now
your payment jumps to $193 per month, and you end up paying a whopping
$46,321.02 for your solar electric system. You have now just become an official
sucker, paying more that twice what you borrowed to "save" money on a solar
electric system that will be worthless when the last dollar bill goes to pay
your tab in 20 years.
And, the same rules still apply- you still have to pay them anyway for
night, overcast, or rainy days. Sure, you can sell some power back on the best,
hottest direct sunlight days, but if you live in an area where the sunlight will
be plentiful enough to do that, you will be using it for air conditioning
anyway! Duh!
I live in Orlando, Florida and have a 2,000 square foot home, pretty typical
here. In the spring and fall, my electric bill in only about $110 or so. On
the hottest summer month, I spend about $240 for electric power, and in the
coldest winter situation, my bill is usually about $170 or so to warm the place.
On average, I spend about $150 to $160 a month. So, how, exactly, is this
supposed to save me money?
I don't have to take out a loan, worry about whether a hailstorm is going to
wreck my collectors, have a large outstanding debt on my credit record, pay lots
of interest, etc. I don't have to worry about deciding to pack up and move
somewhere and fret about whether I can recoup my costs, or if the new owner will
be happy to pay for my fancy solar collector. For about $160 a month, I am
scot-free.
Tax incentives or not, unless it comes WAY down and can be done in small
increments realistically, it's just not going to happen.

Cheers!

Chip Shults

I think you're ignoring the rebate programs that states have made
along with the power companies to make these solar arrays much more
attractive. Your loan figures may be far off if the state programs
allow loans with much more attractive rates.

--
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Subject: line with other stuff. alondra101 <at> hotmail.com
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Gary Tait · Jul 16, 2003

On Wed, 16 Jul 2003 05:31:26 GMT, "Sir Charles W. Shults III"
<aichipREM@OVEcfl.THISrr.com> wrote:

And I suppose that you are going to plunk out 10 to 25 thousands dollars to
install this stuff? Or even finance it- what would your payments be, and how
much would you end up with in interest? Pretty clearly you are some sort of
idealist who has not done the math on this. Try paying $25,000 while paying for
a house, supporting a family and a couple of vehicles, etc.
Let's look at it like a mortgage calculation. Let's say you get the system
installed for $20,000, a real deal. Let's also assume you get a really good
interest rate, like 7%. Hey, it might happen, right? And let's also assume
that you take out a 20 year loan to do it.
You will end up with a monthly payment of $155.06, not counting the loan
insurance and other fees. Sounds reasonable at first glance. Also, you end up
(with interest) paying this 240 times, or a total of $37,214.40 on that $20,000.
Now, while you may sell some power back to the grid, you will be drawing power
(just like before) from the grid all night long, also on rainy days, also on
foggy or overcast days, etc.
In other words, even if you get that 7% loan, you will STILL have an
electric bill, and you also now have to pay this $155.06 every month like
clockwork. And at the end of the 20 years, you have to do it all over again.
Er, assuming that you still live there. Oops!
Okay, now let's look at this with a more realistic interest rate- 10%. Now
your payment jumps to $193 per month, and you end up paying a whopping
$46,321.02 for your solar electric system. You have now just become an official
sucker, paying more that twice what you borrowed to "save" money on a solar
electric system that will be worthless when the last dollar bill goes to pay
your tab in 20 years.
And, the same rules still apply- you still have to pay them anyway for
night, overcast, or rainy days. Sure, you can sell some power back on the best,
hottest direct sunlight days, but if you live in an area where the sunlight will
be plentiful enough to do that, you will be using it for air conditioning
anyway! Duh!
I live in Orlando, Florida and have a 2,000 square foot home, pretty typical
here. In the spring and fall, my electric bill in only about $110 or so. On
the hottest summer month, I spend about $240 for electric power, and in the
coldest winter situation, my bill is usually about $170 or so to warm the place.
On average, I spend about $150 to $160 a month. So, how, exactly, is this
supposed to save me money?
I don't have to take out a loan, worry about whether a hailstorm is going to
wreck my collectors, have a large outstanding debt on my credit record, pay lots
of interest, etc. I don't have to worry about deciding to pack up and move
somewhere and fret about whether I can recoup my costs, or if the new owner will
be happy to pay for my fancy solar collector. For about $160 a month, I am
scot-free.
Tax incentives or not, unless it comes WAY down and can be done in small
increments realistically, it's just not going to happen.

Cheers!

Chip Shults
My robotics, space and CGI web page - http://home.cfl.rr.com/aichip

You can do a moderate grid-intertie system for a few grand, probaly
200-300 watts of panels (at under $500/50W), even less maybe.

Looking at a figures in Home Power Magazine, probably $2,500 for a
300W Grid intertie system.

Jim Thompson · Jul 16, 2003

On Wed, 16 Jul 2003 10:50:17 -0400, Gary Tait <taitg@hurontel.on.ca>
wrote:

On Wed, 16 Jul 2003 05:31:26 GMT, "Sir Charles W. Shults III"
aichipREM@OVEcfl.THISrr.com> wrote:

And I suppose that you are going to plunk out 10 to 25 thousands dollars to
install this stuff? Or even finance it-
[snip]
I don't have to take out a loan, worry about whether a hailstorm is going to
wreck my collectors, have a large outstanding debt on my credit record, pay lots
of interest, etc. I don't have to worry about deciding to pack up and move
somewhere and fret about whether I can recoup my costs, or if the new owner will
be happy to pay for my fancy solar collector. For about $160 a month, I am
scot-free.
Tax incentives or not, unless it comes WAY down and can be done in small
increments realistically, it's just not going to happen.

Cheers!

Chip Shults
My robotics, space and CGI web page - http://home.cfl.rr.com/aichip

You can do a moderate grid-intertie system for a few grand, probaly
200-300 watts of panels (at under $500/50W), even less maybe.

Looking at a figures in Home Power Magazine, probably $2,500 for a
300W Grid intertie system.

300W ??

For the month of June I used 6240KWH, cost, with taxes, $501.08.

I have peak demands of 13.2KW.

How are you going to do that economically with your own personal solar
system?

...Jim Thompson
--
| James E.Thompson, P.E. | mens |
| Analog Innovations, Inc. | et |
| Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC's and Discrete Systems | manus |
| Phoenix, Arizona Voice

480)460-2350 | |
| Jim-T@analog_innovations.com Fax

Joan · Jul 16, 2003

I don't think cost is the only factor. Sometimes I pay more to
support a local business person who is a neighbor and spends his money
in our community.

Personally I do attempt to conserve resources, with a particular eye
at dependency on foreign oil. It won't hold the water in the dike, but
I can go to my grave saying "I tried."

Prior to 1976 we paid $.35 per gallon for gas; then OPEC withheld
supplies and manipulated price increases (which all the oil producers
matched.) The country was in panic. Oil had been $6. a barrel. It
went to $24 within weeks. Lines at gas stations, fights, etc. At the
time I thought "what in the world are we doing to let a few
questionable Arab countries bring us to our knees?"

How is the huge monthly flow of petro dollars out of this country
affecting our economy? I have no statistics, no latest government
"for sure" -- just a bit of common sense, I hope.

Oil is still a nonrenewable energy source. There ain't no more
dinosaurs dying out there.

R&D during the last 30 years to develop alternative means of energy?
Probably pretty minimal on a national scale. When people still do a
major calculation to prove it's cheaper to use oil, then solar isn't
competitive.

And those lip smacking "I gotta SUV." owners -- well, let's not get
into THAT.

Joan

Ian St. John · Jul 16, 2003

"Joan" <jesmith100@msn.com> wrote in message
news:8f57624.0307160826.25328acf@posting.google.com...

I don't think cost is the only factor. Sometimes I pay more to
support a local business person who is a neighbor and spends his money
in our community.

Saving fuel does not have to mean costs. For example, a coal fired power
plant, being 40 years old and with 30% efficiency can be replaced with a
modern plant with 50%+ efficiency and the savings on fuel will pay for the
investment.

Personally I do attempt to conserve resources, with a particular eye
at dependency on foreign oil. It won't hold the water in the dike, but
I can go to my grave saying "I tried."

Hopefully in cost effective manners such as using the bus when convenient,
added insulation, or solar water heating, etc.

Prior to 1976 we paid $.35 per gallon for gas; then OPEC withheld
supplies and manipulated price increases (which all the oil producers
matched.) The country was in panic. Oil had been $6. a barrel. It
went to $24 within weeks. Lines at gas stations, fights, etc. At the
time I thought "what in the world are we doing to let a few
questionable Arab countries bring us to our knees?"

So you realise why the U.S. spent $100B to promote an illegal invasion and
occupation? Good. While I applaud your defiance of OPEC I would suggest that
the same amount of money spent on developing nuclear or alternative energy
would have been better.

How is the huge monthly flow of petro dollars out of this country
affecting our economy? I have no statistics, no latest government
"for sure" -- just a bit of common sense, I hope.

To support your common sense ( which isn't so commong ) you should realise
that North American oil fields are about to run out. The DOE forcasts
reserves/production of only three to five years for Canada and the U.S. Once
these remaining oil reserves are gone the country will have to import 100%
of the oil it uses and this will collapse the dollar as $U.S. bucks flood
the international scene.

Oil is still a nonrenewable energy source. There ain't no more
dinosaurs dying out there.

Most the oil and almost all of the *profitable* oil is in the Persian Gulf.
It represents a 15 year supply for the world or a 40-60 years supply for the
U.S. alone. After that... coal conversion for $60/barrel.

R&D during the last 30 years to develop alternative means of energy?
Probably pretty minimal on a national scale. When people still do a
major calculation to prove it's cheaper to use oil, then solar isn't
competitive.

Actually concentrated solar is nearly competitive in major facilities. It
will certainly become competive with $30+ oil.

And those lip smacking "I gotta SUV." owners -- well, let's not get
into THAT.

Too many threads showing the Stupid Unsafe Vehicles for what they are.

Joan

Ian St. John · Jul 16, 2003

"Ian St. John" <istjohn@spamcop.net> wrote in message
news:AkfRa.5924$104.553803@news20.bellglobal.com...

snip
To support your common sense ( which isn't so commong ) you should realise
that North American oil fields are about to run out. The DOE forcasts
reserves/production of only three to five years for Canada and the U.S.
Once
these remaining oil reserves are gone the country will have to import 100%
of the oil it uses and this will collapse the dollar as $U.S. bucks flood
the international scene.

Forgot the links.

http://www.ott.doe.gov/facts/archives/fotw125.shtml ( note that this was
2000, three years ago ) Some new finds have kept the collapse off but
current reserves are almost gone and there is a growing need to save them
for national emergencies such as war which might cut off imports.
http://www.ott.doe.gov/facts/archives/fotw117.shtml showing how fast the
U.S. is depleting a small resources to avoid importing OPEC oil.
http://www.ott.doe.gov/facts/archives/fotw246.shtml showing how Canada
with no more than 3.5 years production left ) has been overproducing to
help out while depleting it's own resource base at a totally unsustainable
rate, even outproducing Saudi Arabia.
Now refer back to the reserves to production rations and look where Saudi
Arabia stands? They can produce their current output for decades while
Canada is due to be sucked dry and discarded by 2007.

John Mashey · Jul 16, 2003

"Sir Charles W. Shults III" <aichipREM@OVEcfl.THISrr.com> wrote in message news:<Oq5Ra.27588$k85.1103344@twister.tampabay.rr.com>...

Well, actually, you may want to research this a little more, as you
may be leaving money on the table:
try: http://www.dsireusa.org, and select Florida on the map.
Also, the FSEC (Florida Solar Energy Center) is located at the
University of Central Florida in your area: http://www.fsec.ucf.edu.

Comparing California & Florida w.r.t. home photovoltaic (PV) systems:
+ you get more intense sun (than we do here in N. California)
- FL is not as aggressive as CA on rebates
? in any case, there is not only state-to-state variation, but
variation among power companies and local governments

Nevertheless, your general overview of the economics simply does *not*
describe the situation correctly in CA and some other places; maybe it
is true in FL, but I think you might want to investigate a little
more, as I think at least a few of your assumptions are off.

Here's how it works here [N. California, PG&E territory].

1) We normally have time-of-day pricing, in which peak-hours (Summer
12-6P) cost $.31/Kwh, whereas off-peak costs $.08/Kwh.

2) When you go to solar PV, you use *net-metering* [which also exists
in FL], i.e., some of the time you run the meter backwards.

3) It turns out that 1) and 2) work together, such that during the
peak hours, which are among the best sunlight hours, you not only
avoid paying the higher prices, but when you're running the meter
back, you get credited with the *higher* rate, i.e., ~ 4:1. In
essence, you are storing electricity in the grid, then drawing it back
4:1. Here (and in some other states), the period for this is a
*year*. That is, install PV, and then, each year, you pay for your
net usage over the year, including the multiplier factors as above.
They never pay you, so it makes no sense to overbuild, unless you have
a flakey grid in your area, and you install a big battery system, and
you're looking to minimize power interruptions, not just save money.

4) For example, *here*, a $17-20K system (2.5Kw system... which does
include relatively generous CA rebate) would approximately cancel a
$200/month bill for approximately 1100 Kwh, which is ~37 Kwh/day,
or about 1.5Kw/hour on average.
Suppose you get 8 hours of effective sun/day in the summer, including
the 6 peak hours.
Suppose for simplicity, you actually use a constant 1.5Kw/hour.

Figuring Kwh at base rate:
For 2 sun hours: 2 * (2.5-1.5 used) = 2 Kwh credit (for base rate
Kwh)
For 6 peak summer hours: 6 * (2.5-1.5 used) * 4 = 24 Kwh credit

Total credit = 26 Kwh, applied to
remaining 16 hours * 1.5 Kw = 24 Kwh, i.e., cancelled during summer.
and accumulates 2*120 = 240 Kwh for 120 days of summer [June-Sept].
======
During Winter, assuming no peak hours, not so good:
8 hours: 8 * 1 = 8 Kwh credit, applied to rest of day's 16, leaving
8/day.

8 Kwh/day, 240 days => 1920 Kwh - 240 Kwh (leftover from Summer) =>
1700 Kwh.
Hence (here) instead of paying $200/month, one would pay about $350 at
end of each year, or saved roughly $2000.

Your mileage may vary, but this looks like it's in the ballpark to
cancel the electricity bill.

NOTE: you get big leverage from the 4:1 ratio, and fact that best
sunlight usually covers the most expensive period.
NOTE: important that this accumulates over a year, not just a month at
a time.
NOTE: it "helps" to have expensive electricity. sigh.

5) Any good solar PV contractor would have appropriate data for the
local area, and spreadsheet calculators for figuring these for the
individual case.

6) *Here*, a typical mortgage loan, using your calculations, can
actually be cash-flow positive from day one, even ignoring the ability
to defer paymetns until year-end.

7) Let's try another way, if a $20K investment saves $2000 (out of $
2400 bill)/year, then it takes 10 years for payback, and after that,
you're ahead $2K/year. Whether it makes more sense to invest the
money somewhere else or do a mortgage loan depends on what return you
think you can get on your money elsewhere.

8) This is all new enough that I can't be certain of the effect on
resale prices, but there is apparently starting to be some evidence
that solar PV (at least here) is one of the very best additions to a
house in terms of returning *more* than the cost in improved resale
value. I.e., suppose you have a choice of two otherwise identical
houses, and see both electricity bills for last year, and one of them
is $2400, and one of them is $400. That's certainly worth something
in the pricec, although exactly how much remains to be seen.

9) Of course, it is always good to reduce unnecessary usage first.
Google: watts up gets you to web page of useful meters that you can
use to check instantaneous usage, or leave plugged in to accumulate
usage over longer periods. "Vampire" devices can surprise you, i.e.,
especially consumer products that look "off" but aren't really.
Particularly if you've got a bunch of computers, printers, routers,
etc, or TV/VCR/DVD, it's handy to put each group on a switched power
strip so you can *really* turn them off, easily.
I found that my computers/printers/router consumed 3-5% of a month's
power, when *unused*.

When buying new appliance, energy-efficient ones are usually a little
more expensive, but can return the price.

Of course, buying houses with sensible insolation is good idea,
sometimes not so easy to retrofit.

9) Sometimes, it's practical moving electricity usage off-peak [we do
that with pool filter, and use solar hot water to lessen gas usage].
In some houses, it pays to run air-conditioners off-peak. [We have a
Frank Lloyd Wright-style house with thick concrete block walls, heavy
overhanging roof, and dry air that's always cool at night, so
air-conditioning is unneeded, as the building's heat cycle
counterbalances the outside temperatures. If we used an air
conditioner, it would make sense to run it off-peak. This probably
makes less sense in houses with thin wood walls and minimal
insulation.]

You might ask: do we a hve solar PV, and if not, why not?
We have *not* yet gotten a PV electric system yet, but I've been
researching it heavily, and I'm quite convinced that it's economic, at
least here. At this point, it's only gated by:

a) Getting a PV contractor in - many of the local ones have 6-month
waiting lists, due to recent upsurge in installations.
b) We have multiple sections of flat tar-and-gravel roof, which of
course need to be redone ~10 years or so. We could just add a PV array
near the solar hot water collector that's already there, or else we
could redo the tar-and-gravel a little early before putting the PV in,
or there are some potentially much longer lasting membrane materials
that could be used [a neighbor just did this, so I'm checking that],
and all that's got to get sorted out first. This is simpler on most
slanted roofs.

Finally, they are starting to build regular housing developments in N.
California with solar PV and other energy-efficient features, so there
is progress.

And I suppose that you are going to plunk out 10 to 25 thousands dollars to
install this stuff? Or even finance it- what would your payments be, and how
much would you end up with in interest? Pretty clearly you are some sort of
idealist who has not done the math on this. Try paying $25,000 while paying for
a house, supporting a family and a couple of vehicles, etc.
Let's look at it like a mortgage calculation. Let's say you get the system
installed for $20,000, a real deal. Let's also assume you get a really good
interest rate, like 7%. Hey, it might happen, right? And let's also assume
that you take out a 20 year loan to do it.
You will end up with a monthly payment of $155.06, not counting the loan
insurance and other fees. Sounds reasonable at first glance. Also, you end up
(with interest) paying this 240 times, or a total of $37,214.40 on that $20,000.
Now, while you may sell some power back to the grid, you will be drawing power
(just like before) from the grid all night long, also on rainy days, also on
foggy or overcast days, etc.
In other words, even if you get that 7% loan, you will STILL have an
electric bill, and you also now have to pay this $155.06 every month like
clockwork. And at the end of the 20 years, you have to do it all over again.
Er, assuming that you still live there. Oops!
Okay, now let's look at this with a more realistic interest rate- 10%. Now
your payment jumps to $193 per month, and you end up paying a whopping
$46,321.02 for your solar electric system. You have now just become an official
sucker, paying more that twice what you borrowed to "save" money on a solar
electric system that will be worthless when the last dollar bill goes to pay
your tab in 20 years.
And, the same rules still apply- you still have to pay them anyway for
night, overcast, or rainy days. Sure, you can sell some power back on the best,
hottest direct sunlight days, but if you live in an area where the sunlight will
be plentiful enough to do that, you will be using it for air conditioning
anyway! Duh!
I live in Orlando, Florida and have a 2,000 square foot home, pretty typical
here. In the spring and fall, my electric bill in only about $110 or so. On
the hottest summer month, I spend about $240 for electric power, and in the
coldest winter situation, my bill is usually about $170 or so to warm the place.
On average, I spend about $150 to $160 a month. So, how, exactly, is this
supposed to save me money?
I don't have to take out a loan, worry about whether a hailstorm is going to
wreck my collectors, have a large outstanding debt on my credit record, pay lots
of interest, etc. I don't have to worry about deciding to pack up and move
somewhere and fret about whether I can recoup my costs, or if the new owner will
be happy to pay for my fancy solar collector. For about $160 a month, I am
scot-free.
Tax incentives or not, unless it comes WAY down and can be done in small
increments realistically, it's just not going to happen.

Cheers!

Chip Shults
My robotics, space and CGI web page - http://home.cfl.rr.com/aichip

Sir Charles W. Shults III · Jul 16, 2003

Well, John- my point is simple. If you assume that I get a -zero- net bill
at the end of each month by installing this system, the payment for the loan
totals the same or MORE than what I spend on power now. So once again, why
would I bother?

Cheers!

Chip Shults
My robotics, space and CGI web page - http://home.cfl.rr.com/aichip

Jon Elson · Jul 16, 2003

Jim Thompson wrote:

For the month of June I used 6240KWH, cost, with taxes, $501.08.

I have peak demands of 13.2KW.

How are you going to do that economically with your own personal solar
system?

This is for your HOME? How does it use that much electricity?

Electric resistance heat and hot water?

I thought I was a spendthrift on energy (although our major heating
supplies are gas, which is still much cheaper than electric resistance.)
Without air conditioning, our monthly bills run about $75, which works out
to about 1000 KWH. I'm sure my peak demand, especially in the summer,
runs at least as high as yours. In fact, it is hard to understand how
your peak
can be as low as 13.2 KW, as the average over the full month is 8.67 KVA.

Jon

Jim Thompson · Jul 16, 2003

On Wed, 16 Jul 2003 16:22:30 -0500, Jon Elson
<jmelson@artsci.wustl.edu> wrote:

Jim Thompson wrote:

For the month of June I used 6240KWH, cost, with taxes, $501.08.

I have peak demands of 13.2KW.

This is Arizona... June power consumption is dominated by A/C.

How are you going to do that economically with your own personal solar
system?

Solar heats the swimming pool.

This is for your HOME? How does it use that much electricity?
Electric resistance heat and hot water?

Heat pump heats in Winter, cools in Summer. Electric hot water... no
natural gas in this area.

I thought I was a spendthrift on energy (although our major heating
supplies are gas, which is still much cheaper than electric resistance.)
Without air conditioning, our monthly bills run about $75, which works out
to about 1000 KWH. I'm sure my peak demand, especially in the summer,
runs at least as high as yours. In fact, it is hard to understand how
your peak
can be as low as 13.2 KW, as the average over the full month is 8.67 KVA.

Jon

480)460-2350 | |
| Jim-T@analog_innovations.com Fax

Harry Conover · Jul 16, 2003

"Ian St. John" <istjohn@spamcop.net> wrote in message news:<CufRa.5926$104.554932@news20.bellglobal.com>...

"Ian St. John" <istjohn@spamcop.net> wrote in message
news:AkfRa.5924$104.553803@news20.bellglobal.com...

snip
To support your common sense ( which isn't so commong ) you should realise
that North American oil fields are about to run out. The DOE forcasts
reserves/production of only three to five years for Canada and the U.S.
Once
these remaining oil reserves are gone the country will have to import 100%
of the oil it uses and this will collapse the dollar as $U.S. bucks flood
the international scene.

Ian, better recheck your figures and the credibility of your sources.

Fossil fuel alarmists have been pandering this sort of "The Sky Is
Falling" concerns for the past 50 years or so at least, and happily
the end is no where in sight to scientists others with with expertise
in the subject.

During the past 5 years alone, more new oil reserves were discovered
than the known deposits that were previously believed to exist in
total throughout the world. Granted that some of these exist undersea
or scattered around that vast, heavily debated wasteland called the
Arctic, but so what! (Let the polar bears and seals learn to co-exist
with oil pipelines, just as humans have adapted over the years!)

Rest assured that sufficient oil and coal deposits exist to fuel the
demand until ultimately nuclear energy takes over the load.

Read Darwin and you'll grasp the big picture.

Harry C.

Jim Thompson · Jul 16, 2003

On Wed, 16 Jul 2003 12:47:29 -0400, "Ian St. John"
<istjohn@spamcop.net> wrote:

[snip]

So you realise why the U.S. spent $100B to promote an illegal invasion and
occupation? Good. While I applaud your defiance of OPEC I would suggest that
the same amount of money spent on developing nuclear or alternative energy
would have been better.
[snip]
To support your common sense ( which isn't so commong ) you should realise
that North American oil fields are about to run out. The DOE forcasts
reserves/production of only three to five years for Canada and the U.S. Once
these remaining oil reserves are gone the country will have to import 100%
of the oil it uses and this will collapse the dollar as $U.S. bucks flood
the international scene.

[snip]

ROTFLMAO!

Another ignorant socialist!

Where in hell did you dig up that "data" ?

480)460-2350 | |
| Jim-T@analog_innovations.com Fax

Ian St. John · Jul 16, 2003

"Harry Conover" <hhc314@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:7ce4e226.0307161447.60c36c60@posting.google.com...

"Ian St. John" <istjohn@spamcop.net> wrote in message
news:<CufRa.5926$104.554932@news20.bellglobal.com>...
"Ian St. John" <istjohn@spamcop.net> wrote in message
news:AkfRa.5924$104.553803@news20.bellglobal.com...

snip
To support your common sense ( which isn't so commong ) you should
realise
that North American oil fields are about to run out. The DOE forcasts
reserves/production of only three to five years for Canada and the
U.S.
Once
these remaining oil reserves are gone the country will have to import
100%
of the oil it uses and this will collapse the dollar as $U.S. bucks
flood
the international scene.

Ian, better recheck your figures and the credibility of your sources.

You disagree with the U.S. DOE??? I also verified the numbers with Canadian
energy statistics.

Fossil fuel alarmists have been pandering this sort of "The Sky Is
Falling" concerns for the past 50 years or so at least, and happily
the end is no where in sight to scientists others with with expertise
in the subject.

The end is clearly in sight. The rate of discovery peaked in the 1960's and
we are now approaching the hubbard peak in oil production. The oil is
clearly running out within the reserves of Canada/U.S. and this will force
huge imports as they run out. Only massive local overproductiion has kept
import levels down and this is rapidly coming to a close. One reason for the
suddent interest in invasion of Iraq,Iran/ and SA which would give the U.S.
control of the Persian Gulf with the major resources. The U.S. is likely to
keep prices high at the world price and provide 'subsidies' from the profits
to lower the effective price for it's own industries.

During the past 5 years alone, more new oil reserves were discovered
than the known deposits that were previously believed to exist in
total throughout the world.

Pure bullshit. Does ANYONE believe this???

Granted that some of these exist undersea
or scattered around that vast, heavily debated wasteland called the
Arctic, but so what! (Let the polar bears and seals learn to co-exist
with oil pipelines, just as humans have adapted over the years!)

Aha. I see you are somewhat confused by the misinformation campaign. There
have been *no* oil discoveries in the ANWR. The 'potential reserves' are
exclusively a figment of imagination from some 'geological studies' paid for
by the oil companies. The same sort of studies provided other 'potential
fields' that turned up dry. Even if the ANWR did turn out to have
significant oil it would hardly dent the demand and would have to be
produced over a long period.

Rest assured that sufficient oil and coal deposits exist to fuel the
demand until ultimately nuclear energy takes over the load.

Even nuclear is limited and unlikely to serve the needs for transportation
fuels. Conversion of other energy sources to liquids tends to be expensive
or we would be doing it now. You are talking about a future where a barrel
of oil ( equivalent ) is $100 and gasoline is $10 a gallon.

Read Darwin and you'll grasp the big picture.

Yes. I understand that dinosaurs like you will die out. I consider it
'evolution in action'. Just don't pull the rest of us homo-sapiens down with
you. Unlike dinosaurs, we can see the consequences of our actions and avoid
them.

Harry C.

Ian St. John · Jul 16, 2003

"Jim Thompson" <Jim-T@analog_innovations.com> wrote in message
news:fhmbhvo5e6m56lqmo03emlsddvve1j2dv4@4ax.com...

On Wed, 16 Jul 2003 12:47:29 -0400, "Ian St. John"
istjohn@spamcop.net> wrote:

[snip]
So you realise why the U.S. spent $100B to promote an illegal invasion
and
occupation? Good. While I applaud your defiance of OPEC I would suggest
that
the same amount of money spent on developing nuclear or alternative
energy
would have been better.
[snip]
To support your common sense ( which isn't so commong ) you should
realise
that North American oil fields are about to run out. The DOE forcasts
reserves/production of only three to five years for Canada and the U.S.
Once
these remaining oil reserves are gone the country will have to import
100%
of the oil it uses and this will collapse the dollar as $U.S. bucks flood
the international scene.

[snip]

ROTFLMAO!

Small things amuse small minds.

Another ignorant socialist!

Nope. Just a rational and intelligent observer. You reversion to 'name
calling' instead of research indicates that you are *not* a rational and
intelligent observer.

Where in hell did you dig up that "data" ?

U.S. Department of Energy.

Jim Thompson · Jul 16, 2003

On Wed, 16 Jul 2003 19:14:55 -0400, "Ian St. John"
<istjohn@spamcop.net> wrote:

"Jim Thompson" <Jim-T@analog_innovations.com> wrote in message
news:fhmbhvo5e6m56lqmo03emlsddvve1j2dv4@4ax.com...
On Wed, 16 Jul 2003 12:47:29 -0400, "Ian St. John"
istjohn@spamcop.net> wrote:
[snip]
of the oil it uses and this will collapse the dollar as $U.S. bucks flood
the international scene.

[snip]

ROTFLMAO!

Small things amuse small minds.

Another ignorant socialist!

Nope. Just a rational and intelligent observer. You reversion to 'name
calling' instead of research indicates that you are *not* a rational and
intelligent observer.

Where in hell did you dig up that "data" ?

U.S. Department of Energy.

480)460-2350 | |
| Jim-T@analog_innovations.com Fax

Ian St. John · Jul 17, 2003

"Jim Thompson" <Jim-T@analog_innovations.com> wrote in message
news:9lobhvo02if6oj5hmetmmuvv234l9kj6lq@4ax.com...

On Wed, 16 Jul 2003 19:14:55 -0400, "Ian St. John"
istjohn@spamcop.net> wrote:

"Jim Thompson" <Jim-T@analog_innovations.com> wrote in message
news:fhmbhvo5e6m56lqmo03emlsddvve1j2dv4@4ax.com...
On Wed, 16 Jul 2003 12:47:29 -0400, "Ian St. John"
istjohn@spamcop.net> wrote:
[snip]
of the oil it uses and this will collapse the dollar as $U.S. bucks
flood
the international scene.

[snip]

ROTFLMAO!

Small things amuse small minds.

Another ignorant socialist!

Nope. Just a rational and intelligent observer. You reversion to 'name
calling' instead of research indicates that you are *not* a rational and
intelligent observer.

Where in hell did you dig up that "data" ?

U.S. Department of Energy.

In what document? Provide a precise citation. Thanks.

You have to engage a few brain cells. This will undoubtably be difficult for
you, but try.

http://www.ott.doe.gov/facts/archives/fotw125.shtml ( note that this was
2000, three years ago ) Some new finds have kept the collapse off but
current reserves are almost gone and there is a growing need to save them
for national emergencies such as war which might cut off imports.
http://www.ott.doe.gov/facts/archives/fotw117.shtml showing how fast the
U.S. is depleting a small resources to avoid importing OPEC oil.
http://www.ott.doe.gov/facts/archives/fotw246.shtml showing how Canada
with no more than 3.5 years production left ) has been overproducing to
help out while depleting it's own resource base at a totally unsustainable
rate, even outproducing Saudi Arabia.
Now refer back to the reserves to production rations and look where Saudi
Arabia stands? They can produce their current output for decades while
Canada is due to be sucked dry and discarded by 2007.
http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/es/ener2000/online/html/chap3a_e.htm
Alberta Production is about 75% of 341.7 thousand cubic meters per day or
about 256,275 cubic meters per day.
Alberta Proven Reserves is about 326,900,000 cubic meters. That means that
at current production rates, the oil would last about 1272 days or about
three and a half years.. There are negligeable new finds in the old Leduc
fields. This correlates well with the 5 year reserves/production figures
from the DOE in 2000.

You can verify the facts by the oil industries own figures at
http://www.bp.com/files/10/statistical_review_1087.pdf

It boils down to the U.S/Canada having both huge and unsustainable
production from relatively small reserves and a looming crisis when they run
out. This isn't rocket science.

Josh Halpern · Jul 17, 2003

Sir Charles W. Shults III wrote:

And I suppose that you are going to plunk out 10 to 25 thousands dollars to
install this stuff? Or even finance it- what would your payments be, and how
much would you end up with in interest? Pretty clearly you are some sort of
idealist who has not done the math on this. Try paying $25,000 while paying for
a house, supporting a family and a couple of vehicles, etc.

Hmm... 25k$ is less that what a lot of vehicles cost these days.

Let's look at it like a mortgage calculation. Let's say you get the system
installed for $20,000, a real deal. Let's also assume you get a really good
interest rate, like 7%. Hey, it might happen, right? And let's also assume
that you take out a 20 year loan to do it.

No, the sensible thing to do is when you refinance your mortgage to take out

25k$ in equity. That means you are now paying what, 5%. Big difference
and fairly easy to get, not hey it might happen. The loan is then part
of the
mortgage at 15 or 30 years.

You will end up with a monthly payment of $155.06, not counting the loan
insurance and other fees. Sounds reasonable at first glance.

$107 at 5% over 30 years.

Also, you end up
(with interest) paying this 240 times, or a total of $37,214.40 on that $20,000.

True, but inflation decreases that somewhat. The real question is what

it does to
the value of the house.

Now, while you may sell some power back to the grid, you will be drawing power
(just like before) from the grid all night long, also on rainy days, also on
foggy or overcast days, etc.

In other words, even if you get that 7% loan, you will STILL have an
electric bill, and you also now have to pay this $155.06 every month like
clockwork. And at the end of the 20 years, you have to do it all over again.
Er, assuming that you still live there. Oops!

Now make some assumptions about inflation, the value of the house, tax

breaks for
having an energy efficient house etc. Also add some costs for improving the
house insulation, etc.

Okay, now let's look at this with a more realistic interest rate- 10%.

Nonsense, no one with an ounce of sense is going to put this on her\

Visa.

And, the same rules still apply- you still have to pay them anyway for
night, overcast, or rainy days. Sure, you can sell some power back on the best,
hottest direct sunlight days, but if you live in an area where the sunlight will
be plentiful enough to do that, you will be using it for air conditioning
anyway! Duh!

Duh! if you have improved your insulation, you may not have to buy extra

power for the A/C.

I live in Orlando, Florida and have a 2,000 square foot home, pretty typical
here. In the spring and fall, my electric bill in only about $110 or so. On
the hottest summer month, I spend about $240 for electric power, and in the
coldest winter situation, my bill is usually about $170 or so to warm the place.
On average, I spend about $150 to $160 a month. So, how, exactly, is this
supposed to save me money?

Talk to me in a few months about your bill when the soaring price of natural

gas pushes the electric bill up, or, maybe FL will get caught in an Enron
squeeze.

I don't have to take out a loan, worry about whether a hailstorm is going to
wreck my collectors, have a large outstanding debt on my credit record, pay lots
of interest, etc. I don't have to worry about deciding to pack up and move
somewhere and fret about whether I can recoup my costs, or if the new owner will
be happy to pay for my fancy solar collector. For about $160 a month, I am
scot-free.
Tax incentives or not, unless it comes WAY down and can be done in small
increments realistically, it's just not going to happen.

Depends on where, and a bunch of other stuff.

josh halpern

Cheers!

Chip Shults
My robotics, space and CGI web page - http://home.cfl.rr.com/aichip

Sir Charles W. Shults III · Jul 17, 2003

"Josh Halpern" <j.halpern@incoming.verizon.net> wrote in message
news:3F1607A0.5000800@incoming.verizon.net...

Hmm... 25k$ is less that what a lot of vehicles cost these days.

You won't catch ME paying that much for a vehicle. I choose practical over
showy crap.

Let's look at it like a mortgage calculation. Let's say you get the
system
installed for $20,000, a real deal. Let's also assume you get a really good
interest rate, like 7%. Hey, it might happen, right? And let's also assume
that you take out a 20 year loan to do it.

No, the sensible thing to do is when you refinance your mortgage to take out
25k$ in equity. That means you are now paying what, 5%. Big difference
and fairly easy to get, not hey it might happen. The loan is then part
of the
mortgage at 15 or 30 years.

You will end up with a monthly payment of $155.06, not counting the loan
insurance and other fees. Sounds reasonable at first glance.

$107 at 5% over 30 years.

Remember, the life of the system is rated at 20 years. You end up paying
for it 30 years? What a crock. It would only be sensible to do if you get a 15
or 20 year mortgage. But now you are talking about refinancing your home.
Resetting the clock, so to speak. If you are already at a good interest rate,
this is not an attractive idea. If you have already paid the first five to
seven years (which is mostly interest, principal has barely decreased) then you
may not HAVE $25k in equity in many situations. You have just made some guy in
a bank richer and now you have to start paying for your house all over again.
By and large, this still is just not a realistic option for most people.

Also, you end up
(with interest) paying this 240 times, or a total of $37,214.40 on that
$20,000.

True, but inflation decreases that somewhat. The real question is what
it does to
the value of the house.

Okay, inflation is a factor over this period of time, sure. Value of your
home is questionable over 20 years. Too many variables. I lived in a pretty
nice neighborhood where the neighbors were slowly moving out as the trashy ones
moved in. Guess what happened to the value of my home?
This happened not once, but twice. I had to eat it in both cases. My
present neighborhood shows staying power, but we just had a neighbor here who
has a solar pool heater, and his panels were trashed by vandals. Talk about
horror stories.
Even with the insurance, it did not cover the cost of the replacement work,
and the company hired started working, then walked after receiving part of their
draw. He was stuck with a non-functioning system for something like a year, and
he had to cough up the cash out of pocket. Once again, why take this risk?
If some dumbass tried to trash a power plant, he will probably get shot. If
he trashes your house, nobody seems to give a damn. Police reports, insurance
inspectors, lots of red tape and paperwork. In the end, you have to shell out
cash to pay for things.

Now, while you may sell some power back to the grid, you will be drawing
power
(just like before) from the grid all night long, also on rainy days, also on
foggy or overcast days, etc.

In other words, even if you get that 7% loan, you will STILL have an
electric bill, and you also now have to pay this $155.06 every month like
clockwork. And at the end of the 20 years, you have to do it all over again.
Er, assuming that you still live there. Oops!

Now make some assumptions about inflation, the value of the house, tax
breaks for
having an energy efficient house etc. Also add some costs for improving the
house insulation, etc.

Okay, now let's look at this with a more realistic interest rate- 10%.

Nonsense, no one with an ounce of sense is going to put this on her\
Visa.

Are you kidding? They typically charge 15 to 20 percent. You might
negotiate 10% through a bank, but not through a credit card company.

And, the same rules still apply- you still have to pay them anyway for
night, overcast, or rainy days. Sure, you can sell some power back on the
best,
hottest direct sunlight days, but if you live in an area where the sunlight
will
be plentiful enough to do that, you will be using it for air conditioning
anyway! Duh!

Duh! if you have improved your insulation, you may not have to buy extra
power for the A/C.

There are physical limits to how much your insulation can be improved. Mine
is pretty good, and to get any better there would be ventilation and air
exchange problems, not to mention nowhere to move stuff in the attic. It seems
to me that a much better solution to the insulation problem would be a three
inch air gap between the roof that you see and the actual roof, with a nice
thick layer of spray foam or some equivalent in there.
You can't make your house the equivalent of a Dewar flask, because people
have to breathe.
This would then leave your attic with a much lower heat load, which would
surely help. And remember radon? Think about phosphate mining and Florida...
The major problem with most radon accumulations here is "too much insulation and
not enough air exchange". Well, how then do you go about improving your
insulation in areas like this without creating a potentially hazardous buildup
of radon?
You could use heat exchangers, but that is another expense on top of
everything else. And, one more thing to maintain every couple of weeks.

I live in Orlando, Florida and have a 2,000 square foot home, pretty
typical
here. In the spring and fall, my electric bill in only about $110 or so. On
the hottest summer month, I spend about $240 for electric power, and in the
coldest winter situation, my bill is usually about $170 or so to warm the
place.
On average, I spend about $150 to $160 a month. So, how, exactly, is this
supposed to save me money?

Talk to me in a few months about your bill when the soaring price of natural
gas pushes the electric bill up, or, maybe FL will get caught in an Enron
squeeze.

Once again, unpredictable factors.

I don't have to take out a loan, worry about whether a hailstorm is going
to
wreck my collectors, have a large outstanding debt on my credit record, pay
lots
of interest, etc. I don't have to worry about deciding to pack up and move
somewhere and fret about whether I can recoup my costs, or if the new owner
will
be happy to pay for my fancy solar collector. For about $160 a month, I am
scot-free.
Tax incentives or not, unless it comes WAY down and can be done in small
increments realistically, it's just not going to happen.

Depends on where, and a bunch of other stuff.

And that is exactly right. Too many variables, too many risks, etc. If the
costs were closer to the $5k to $10K range for this system, then things would be
different. And if you could get a loan with a rate like your mortgage rate
without having to refinance your home to do it, that would also be a great
incentive.

josh halpern

Cheers!

Chip Shults
My robotics, space and CGI web page - http://home.cfl.rr.com/aichip

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